Fox’s advertising upfront meeting is Monday, May 18 (here is the rest of the upfront schedule). Their new fall schedule will be announced no later than that date, so this is the last installment of the Fox Renew/Cancel Index before decision time.
Without further ado, here are our final predictions of the likelihood of renewal for all the Fox scripted shows that still hang in the balance. I’d bet that not everyone agrees with us. Feel free to post your guesses in the comments.
So much for timing, while preparing this post the Hollywood Reporter is out with the fact that Fox has renewed Lie To Me. Take my word for it, Robert and I both had it at 95%.
Update: Ok, I should have gone 100% for Bones, but then what would you have had to nitpick about? 
| Program | Bill | Robert |
| BONES | 95% | 92% |
| DOLLHOUSE | 1% | 0% |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | 0% | 0% |
| SIT DOWN SHUT UP | 0% | 0% |
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This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES (FRI) | FOX | 1.25 | 2.67 | 0.47 | |
| SIT DOWN SHUT UP | FOX | 1.4 | 2.67 | 0.52 | |
| DOLLHOUSE | FOX | 1.5 | 2.67 | 0.56 | |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 1.6 | 2.67 | 0.60 | canceled |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 1.8 | 2.67 | 0.67 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 2.0 | 2.67 | 0.75 | final season |
| AMERICAN DAD | FOX | 2.7 | 2.67 | 1.01 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 2.7 | 2.67 | 1.01 | final season* |
| BONES | FOX | 2.9 | 2.67 | 1.08 | |
| SIMPSONS | FOX | 3.1 | 2.67 | 1.16 | |
| LIE TO ME | FOX | 3.4 | 2.67 | 1.27 | |
| FAMILY GUY | FOX | 3.5 | 2.67 | 1.31 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 3.6 | 2.67 | 1.35 | |
| 24 | FOX | 3.7 | 2.67 | 1.38 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 4.7 | 2.67 | 1.76 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
Note that the Fox average used above is its final Season to Date average prior to American Idol (see below).
Notes:
*King of the Hill: Fox declined to renew King of the Hill, but has enough new episodes so that they will be airing well into 2009, through early fall by some reports.
Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles: The numbers above are for only its Friday airings that began on February 13, 2009. FYI, It’s 13 episode 18-49 average on Monday this season was 2.726 million (which is an average 18-49 rating of 2.1).
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
What possible reason is there not to put Bones at 100%?
Nice to see this: “FYI, It’s 13 episode 18-49 average on Monday this season was 2.726 million (which is an average 18-49 rating of 2.1).”
Which ought to shut up some of the TSCC fans who don’t understand that Monday’s ratings and viewers for the show sucked, too.
Bill, there’s a one percent difference between you and Robert on Dollhouse. What’s that line? “A difference that makes no difference IS no difference”? LOL!
Julia: They’re like me – they like to keep at least a small percentage of skepticism about anything and everything. Certainty is for dead men walking.
Well at least you gave Dollhouse a 1% chance of returning, Bill. LOL!!!
Wait, when was House officially renewed? I know the chances are clearly 100%, but has it been officially announced by FOX yet?
Rick, there is a multi-year deal with Hugh Laurie in place now, so we decided it’s effectively renewed.
Right! I forgot about that. Thanks Bill
Bones
—100% Its a sure thing.
Dollhouse
—0% No.
Terminator: TSCC
—0% Heck no.
Sit Down, Shut Up
—0% I think if Fox could have, they would have moved it to 6pm.
Sit Down Shut Up is now completely off the schedule and being replaced by King Of The Hill repeats. It’s canceled.
Also, you guys are crazy. Dollhouse deserves at least a 3%!
@RSH
Nothing but next Monday is going to finally shut those guys up and then of course, any of us who saw this five miles out and three months ago, were just a lucky guess LOL
I had “Lie to Me” at 96%. So there!
Bones – 100% (Slam dunk)
Don’t Forget the Lyrics – 70%
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader – 70%
Secret Millionaire – 70%
Osbournes Reloaded – 5% (Didn’t perform badly, but a major source of embarrassment for the network. And affiliates don’t want to air it. Though I do think they’ll burn off the remaining segs at some point.)
Hole in the Wall – 0% (More like Hole in the Schedule)
Dollhouse – 0% (Bad show, no viewers)
Sit Down, Shut Up – 0% (Bad show, less than no viewers)
Terminator – Minus 47562139.8% (Bad show, drove away all its viewers)
The only question marks to me are the 3 reality shows. They could go either way. They should all be brought back for another go-round — “Secret Millionaire” for another December run and the Friday shows as backup to help plug holes that are not in the wall.
And, yeah, I think you can say the trainwreck that was “Sit Down, Shut Up” is… tantamount to cancelled. Ba dum bum.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rt0hQWVnSVw
Save TSCC!!!
yeah i dont see how bones isn’t at 100% here
The hollywood reporter said they also picked up ‘Human Target’.
The Fringe finale tonight was very interesting. Three major reveals!
I’m no longer concerned about Abrams screwing up season 2! Because it’s clear that the “other dimension” looks pretty much like this one. So I don’t have to worry he produces some totally whacked out crap that looks cheesy. Also cuts down on the cost of the CGI!
I spotted the reveal about Peter as soon as Walter talked about something he loved being taken from him. The tombstone confirmed it. But I didn’t see that one coming beforehand.
There was a Star Trek fiction – actually two novels – done years ago where somebody figured out how to perfectly clone people using a mind scan – sort of like the Dollhouse technology – coupled with a transporter scan to produce perfect clones of people. They had two Kirks, and two Spocks running around, etc.
I think this is where Fringe is going. We’re gonna see other dimensional duplicates of people like Walter, Olivia, etc. Who knows WHICH William Bell she met tonight? If it was OUR William Bell, what happened to the OTHER one? Major problems of identity, conflicts of interest, etc.
Hopefully it won’t get as complicated as Lost, though.
I didn’t like that they took out David Robert Jones in the finale – and didn’t explain much about what the teleportation did to him. That was the only weak part of the finale I can see at this point.
I read yesterday somewhere that SDSU is already officially cancelled ..am I wrong ?
There hasn’t been an official announcement that I know of, but Fox pulled it from this week’s schedule. That seems like a pretty clear statement given the fact that they’re not even showing the sixth and final episode of the season.
I think FOX ahould renew both TSCC and Dollhouse for 1 more season. TSCC gets critical acclaim. With the movie coming out there might be some interest in the show. i think they should do 13 eps. if only not to piss of the terminator fans. Dollhouse they should do the same if they both Flop after ep 13 then get rid of them.
13+13? How much the cost ? For what ? Very low performers ? Who pay the bill, the fans?
Bones at 95% and 92%?
Steve, they couldn’t care less about pissing off TSCC fans since there are relatively few of them compared to shows that make money.
Again, the movie will do nothing for the show. WB would like a show to be on TV between movies but only if it makes money and doesn’t make people dislike the Terminator name.
As for Dollhouse, it’s ALREADY flopped after 12 episodes – what would 13 more do? Unless Whedon seriously revamped the series. Even then it’s got bad rep now, same as TSCC.
I think part of the reason Dollhouse failed late is because , no one wanted to get invested in a show that is going to get canceled. Everyone knows it will be canceled so why bother with the possible cliffhanger in the finale.
The final two episodes were better than the whole first season, easily.
Many fans have it in their minds that Fox doesnt support Whedon and easily cancels anything he brings to them.( I am not saying its true but I feel like thats what the fans think, from reading various things on the net)
Its been 8 or 9 years? And people are still bitter about the Firefly cancellation. Dollhouse gets compared to Firefly a lot because of Whedon.
Would be nice to see a 13 episode pick-up for Dollhouse. I would be curious to see if the DVD sales go up and see what the viewers do for the second season premiere of Dollhouse. I get the feeling it would be high , as long as its not on the Friday night slot where all Fox shows go to die, it seems.
It would probably be a big investment for Fox tho , so chances are probably slim.
Bones= 100% they have already ordered up more eps just no “official” renewal announcement.
I think this Firefly thing gets blown out of proportion sometimes. Do the good DVD sales suggest that FOX could have had a financially viable show with it eventually? Sure. Why not.
Do they however suggest that there are 10 million people clamoring for a new Whedon show, but not watching it for fear FOX will cancel it again? Doesn’t that sound ridiculous to anyone else?
DVD sales (and re-runs on Adult Swim) resurrected Family Guy – just sayin’…
Haha, why is Bones on this list? Here’s my list.
Bones 10000000%
Dollhouse 1%
Terminator 0&
Sit Down 0%
Bones is not one of FOX’s bubble series, its definitely returning no question. However FOX doesn’t have many bubble series since most have been renewed or axed. A week ago I wouldve said 0% for Dollhouse, however given some reports that the series could return, i’m giving it a slight 1% chance. With Sit Down pulled, that series along with the already dead Terminator is gone.
Also as for Fifth Grader and Lyrics. Since these 2 are gameshows, they can return to fill holes in the schedule whenever like during this summer and fridays. Similar to why The Moment of Truth was held until this summer, because its a cheap game show. These all have a good chance.
Folks, Bones is on this list because, as explained, it hasn’t had an official pick-up. As for going 95% instead of 100%, in retrospect, I probably should have gone 100%, but if I had, what would you be left to nitpick about on this list?
BONES 1000%
DOLLHOUSE 10% (Seriously, I think it has a real (albeit low) chance to come back as a 13-episode Spring filler.)
TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES 0%
SIT DOWN SHUT UP 0%
If Terminator Salvation makes 300,000,000 dollars and everyone was talking about it again — you really think they wouldn’t renew Connor Chronicles?
Rhetorical question. But I have an answer anyway: of course they would.
Jocor – they probably wouldn’t, because the TV show was a flop.
What *might* happen is that another Terminator TV series (not T:SCC) gets proposed and possibly picked up, though probably not by one of the OTA networks. That series would probably be related to T4, rather than the T2/3 hybrid T:SCC was.
The issues with T:SCC run deep, and it’s far from obvious people would return to the TV series (which, remember, initially had high audience figures – people have tried it, and decided they didn’t like it) just because they liked the latest movie.
(I might add I was a fan of the first season. I would dearly love someone to “fix” T:SCC and the fixed version be picked up. But I don’t think the current incarnation will be picked up by anyone and I suspect any new TV show would probably not be made by the same people.)
“Do they however suggest that there are 10 million people clamoring for a new Whedon show, but not watching it for fear FOX will cancel it again? Doesn’t that sound ridiculous to anyone else?”
well the ratings for Dollhouse were doing better during the season with mediocre episodes. Then about a month ago Joss said he doesnt think Dollhouse has much of a chance of getting renewed. So I believe all the fans said to themselves , we have been down this road before … why bother … and since then the ratings have declined even tho the episode quality has increased.
If someone has a better idea please , I am all ears.
Everything I read about Firefly is people saying wow, I cant believe this show was canceled, why didnt I hear about it when it was first aired(from new people who have just watched it for the first time)… And the show still has a strong following after 1 season 1 movie and about 8 years later… (movie was 3 or 4 years ago?)
I am willing to bet , that if they somehow revived Firefly it would be a decent hit … better ratings than Dollhouse and TSCC… But , they would never bring the series back this long after canceling it.
Squiggleslash is right.
“What *might* happen is that another Terminator TV series (not T:SCC) gets proposed and possibly picked up, though probably not by one of the OTA networks. That series would probably be related to T4, rather than the T2/3 hybrid T:SCC was.”
As I’ve said, I expect WB would like a Terminator TV show on the air between movies IF the show made money for itself and the network airing it.
However, I think a series based on T-4 would be problematical to keep “canonical” and dangerous in terms of confusing people if it wasn’t. So I think that’s why WB went for Friedman’s post-T-2 concept. You watch the TV series to get into the heads of the characters prior to Judgment Day, then watch the movies to see how it plays out after that event.
“I would dearly love someone to “fix” T:SCC and the fixed version be picked up.”
Actually, I’m thinking of putting up a Web site that first analyzes and deconstructs TSCC, and then puts up my fan fic on how a post-T-2 show SHOULD have gone.
“But I don’t think the current incarnation will be picked up by anyone and I suspect any new TV show would probably not be made by the same people.)”
It couldn’t be made by Friedman, that’s for sure. That guy shouldn’t be allowed to do anything involving sci-fi on broadcast TV. You could, however, cast the same actors in a new show. Lena, Tom and Summer were all gold – especially Summer. Rumors are that WB is even considering putting her in an future Terminator movie – that’s how golden her character was on the show. That was Friedman’s only stroke of genius on that show – casting her as a female Terminator to protect Connor. Then he did nothing with it!
It doesnt matter how well Terminator Salvation does, TSCC is NOT coming back – its ratings are simply too bad. Now another Terminator series something more like an action adventure series, perhaps after the events of Salvation that is designed to set up the 5th movie, maybe.
leo – first of all, I doubt the vast majority of Dollhouse viewers ever heard’s Whedon’s comment. And the remainder probably wanted to at least find out what happened.
Second, the ratings went down around 25% in total (1.3 a month ago to a 1.0 for the last episode), after (1) a one week break, (2) being paired with a non-science fiction show and (3) for the last two weeks being shown at the same time as two major movies aimed at similar audiences opened at theaters. All three of these factors seem likely to have caused viewing figures to drop, while a comment a few hundred thousand people might have heard (and I’m being generous) probably doesn’t sound like it would have done.
Dollhouse really wasn’t affected by people deciding they didn’t want to know how it finished because some guy involved in the show expressed pessimism about the chances of renewal.
YES, House has officially been renewed. ALRIGHT!!!
Oh come now, I’m sure you really WANTED to put a negative number in the chance % of Terminator being renewed; you should just go ahead and change it. It’s not like it would surprise anyone.
Whether you liked dollhouse or not the reason it didn’t get renewed is because the vast majority of people didn’t like it. Sorry but the world doesn’t revolve around your opinions and narrow perspectives.
You can argue about lead-ins and Whedons comment all you want but a show dousn’t get numbers like dollhouse got if people liked the show even a little.
Bones its sure for a 5th season as if FOX is CBS
@Richard Steven Hack
Didn’t they explain the whole teleporter business back during those episodes? How it degrades your body, and he had to spend all that time in a hyperbaric chamber just to slow that process down?
To Bill, yeah true. Without you puttting Bones on the list therd be nothing to talk about but everyone knows that Bones has the same chance of being renewed as Terminator does of being axed which is 100% likely for both. For some reason everyone has a glimmer of hope for Dollhouse but its more likely that FOX will just axe it.
Joshua K: Actually, no. Walter said it changes a person into something “unthinkable” but it doesn’t kill you. Then Jones smashed his way through a wall out of the hospital. This week he took multiple bullets in stride. They could have done more than just wrap his face in bandages. I was hoping he turned into a full out monster or superhuman of some sort!
But mostly I just hate that they dumped him before he could turn into an even more interesting character. Having him turn out just to be a guy jealous of William Bell was sort of anti-climactic.
“well the ratings for Dollhouse were doing better during the season with mediocre episodes. Then about a month ago Joss said he doesnt think Dollhouse has much of a chance of getting renewed.”
While that may be, my point kind of was that even before Whedon said any such thing and before the ratings fell that much, they already were abysmal. Do you get that? That even for the premiere the ratings were soso and afterwards quickly became horrific.
I am not making a point about why it is Dollhouse lost about half its viewers over only 12 episodes, I am just saying that somewhere along the line the story of a show that was sadly mishandled by FOX and then found an audience on DVD became into this ridiculous mythos of millions of rioting people demanding more, that simply isn’t backed by numbers of people that went to see the movie or people actually viewing other Whedon shows. Not saying these people aren’t dedicated, just that there simply may not be enough of them to ever make a show into a hit without some actual appeal to viewers outside that group. Dong ma?
In short: while a batshit crazy fan person may think they should count for ten average redneck viewers not really caring, but running DWTS in the background while ironing or whatever, when has that ever worked before?
Wow, James Hibberd is now reporting that FOX is leaning towards a Dollhouse renewal. He seemed pretty shocked, like this is more than just talk.
Well contrary to my opinion and everyone’s thoughts, FOX just renewed Dollhouse, but I’m sure stranger things have happened. Bill looks like that 1% glimmer of hope really worked out this time.
LMAO This site lost any credibility it could have claimed to have with the Dollhouse prediction.
Anyone with half a brain in ther head knew the decision was still to be made yet these tools were both convinced it was canceled.
There is clearly no pint ever reading this site again. Flipping a coin gives you about as much chance of arriving at the right answer!
There are sources that say Sit Down Shut Up has definitely been canceled and FOX will not air the remaining 9 episodes.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/13/theater/13arts-SITDOWNSHUTU_BRF.html?ref=arts
LOL!!!! Dollhouse was just picked up for season #2. So much for the index and your numbers….I was dissapointed for nothing:))
How does that 1% taste now, Bill? Does it taste nice and sweet? And how bout that goose egg, Robert? All jackassery aside, I still don’t like Dollhouse.
The Index is still accurate here but for the notable exception of Dollhouse.
Come on, nobody *really* expected Dollhouse to be renewed. I think even fans of the show were shocked by the news.
Sooooooo happy to have seen you proven wrong about Dollhouse
As a huge Dollhouse fan I am elated! Bill had a pretty good guess but since it is a Whedon show I would have put it at .5%. Fox would not blink in canceling another one of his shows.
Dollhouse fan Here. They renewed it for another season! YAY. Sorry index wrong. Dollhouse will be better than ever. Because the episodes are getting better and the show is too. Give it a shot, and forget about it being canceled at any moment. You should like the show then be worried. Dollhouse fans really rally around to get another season by calling Fox and twitting about it. I give it hopes for a bright future because it has loyal fans around of the show! Friday’s nights always stink with rating. Give the shows a chance on fridays. Everyone Watch Dollhouse, a good show worth watching.Terminator:Sarah Connor is canceled.