The late night wars are on, at least based on the early metered market ratings that measure the number of homes watching. There, Late Show with David Letterman charged back into the lead with a 3.5 preliminary rating. The Tonight Show and Conan pulled a 3.0 rating on Thursday night.
Fortunately for NBC, it’s the age demo numbers that matter, and not total viewers. While final numbers for this week’s late night shows won’t be available until next Thursday, Conan thumped Dave in the age demos last week, but how much of that was fueled by the early interest when the show debuted is not clear — it will get more clear when we see the data for this week next Thursday.
However, not wanting to wait around, NBC has sampled 21 of their markets for the demo, which, according to James Hibberd NBC believes is a good forecasting tool, and there, Conan Beat Dave last night among adults 18-49 with a 1.5 adults 18-49 rating to Letterman’s .9 rating. Not the wide margins of last week, but still a significantly wide margin in the numbers hold up. The age demos drive advertising, and are the most meaningful.
The household numbers are not really all that meaningful in terms of how the shows are doing, at least in terms of ad sales and revenue. But, those household numbers are available earlier and make good fodder for news stories and, of course, blog posts even if they are not very meaningful. It looks like even with the household numbers cited here, NBC and Conan are besting CBS and Dave where it really matters.
Letterman isn’t all that funny to me, but I actually have started to slowly turn to his show since Conan took over for Jay. Both Jimmy’s still take the cake. And Fallon had a great show last night, good monologue and segments. He is usually funny but does have the occasional lame joke, but the crowd was really behind him last night.
What was Leno getting in the 18-49? About a 1.4? It’s not the big improvement NBC was expecting.
I can’t stand letterman or Leno. In different ways, they’re both aholes in my opinion. Letterman’s just a jerk… Leno’s more of a dbag. “have ya seen this? Have ya heard this?” ugh.
Conan and Fallon are great.
I think that Letterman beat Conan because of that feud that Letterman is having with Alaska Governor Sarah Palin which has been all over the news. So as soon as this goes away, I think Conan will be on top. Conan’s show last night was great!
Could this article be any more biased? How many times did he repeat how total viewers are insignificant or “didn’t really matter”?
Unless you are a network executive, total viewers “really matter” and Dave completely destroyed Conan twice this week… something Dave couldn’t do to Jay for over 8 months.
You can spin it all you want, but NBC isn’t happy about losing their leadership position to The Late Show. The undisputed leader in total viewers for the better part of 50 years (The Tonight Show) is becomming #2 very quickly. Not good, no matter how you try and spin it.
There has going to be a lot of back and forth between Conan and Dave in the next few months. In the overnights, Conan lost Tuesday, won Wednesday, and lost Thursday. I think a lot of it has to do with guests. Last night, Conan had Norm MacDonald and Jim Gaffigan. While I personally think Norm and Jim are hilarious when they’re with Conan, it was hard to compete with Letterman’s guests last night. Dave had Denzel Washington, the Jonas Brothers, and a Top 10 list featuring Regis Philbin.
I think there’s a pattern here. Conan lost Tuesday when Eddie Murphy was on his show (who used to be a huge star, but is sort of irrelevant now), versus Julia Roberts on Letterman. Conan won Wednesday when it was Dane Cook on his show, versus Kathy Griffin on Letterman. And Conan lost last night, I think in major part due to the starpower of Letterman’s guests. I think the best test of how Conan is really doing with viewers came on Wednesday’s show, because at least in my opinion, Kathy Griffin and Dane Cook are pretty equal in famous-ness.
Conan had much better guests in his first week, and it seems Letterman’s stepping up his game. Conan’s talent booker needs to do a better job, because in these early weeks when former Leno viewers are trying to pick between Conan and Dave, they’re going to flock to the person with bigger-name guests. Yes, Conan is killing in the 18-49 demos but he has to at least try to retain some of Leno’s viewers.
Also, is it just me or has Conan had a lot of guests on his show who aren’t promoting anything? Gwyneth didn’t have any movies coming out- she just talked about her website. They talked about Iron Man, which came out last year, and the fact that she’s filming Iron Man 2, which comes out next year. Norm doesn’t seem to be doing much of ANYTHING these days. Tom Hanks and Anna Friel both came on Conan AFTER their movies premiered.
Also, Letterman is benefitting a lot from his feud with Sarah Palin right now.
Actually, what I meant to say is that Conan beat Letterman on Wednesday, but he did it narrowly- his overnight rating was 3.1 versus Letterman’s 3.0. My point was that when the guests on both shows are equal in popularity, I think Conan or draw with Dave or edge him out in overnight ratings.
I know Jay spanked Dave for years, but Conan is going to need time to build that audience again. Sure Conan has his former crowd of fans from 12:30 carrying over, but on Late Night, Conan only ever pulled in 1/2 to 2/3 of the audience Jay did at 11:30. People don’t react well to change, so I think Conan deserves a few months to have a chance to win people before he gets written off. People of course are going to go over to Dave for awhile, because he’s what’s familiar. A lot of people have never seen Conan before. Conan is the kind of host that grows on you.
And as for this article being biased, demos are what matter to networks. Household ratings are important, but right now NBC cares more about the demos.
Tonight should be a good test for Conan. He has Jamie Foxx on his show and Letterman has Sandra Bullock on his. I think they’re both pretty famous.
Denzl Washington and the Jonas Brothers were on Letterman. That would provide an intereseting mix of viewers. The Sarah Palin saga can’t be hurting either which is why it is mind boggling that on the Today Show today she kept up her feud with Dave, claiming that she wouldn’t go on his show to boost his ratings. What does she think she IS doing by calling him out once again? (If I were her kid, the 14 year old that the joke was not about, I would be upset, not by the so called joke but by the fact that my parents would not let it go.) Governor Palin’sself promotion certainly isn’t protecting her children’s privacy. She admitted that she had not seen the “offensive” material in an interview I saw, that the radio personality told her about it. No wonder she keeps referencing the 14 year old. I saw the show and it was obvious from the jokes that they were (or are since they keep repeating them because she won’t let this go) about the 18 year old daughter. They may be at bit in bad taste, but most jokes directed at people are in somewhat bad taste, that is what makes them jokes. Maybe Dave ought to include a new bit: the Daily Apology. Might be funny.
Letterman’s joke were in poor taste and he should have apologized (more sincerely than he did), but of course Palin, as in everything she does, has to be over the top and turn a minor felony into a capital offense. My biggest complaint with Letterman is that he gave Palin a reason to spout off her mouth yet again. Good God, the lady needs to go back to Alaska, do her job as Governor, to the extent she can, and just take care of business. I am so tired of her and her nonsense.
Jim, I totally agree with you. I’m angry with Letterman for helping put this woman back in the spotlight again.
To that end, Letterman’s writers should have done their research to see which of her daughters was with her in NYC. I think that if Bristol had been with her, and that was clearly the daughter Dave made the joke about, Palin wouldn’t have been able spout off like she has. I mean, both Sarah and Bristol Palin have made Bristol into a public figure. Sarah Palin made Bristol’s pregnancy into a political issue and paraded her around at the RNC. Bristol has appeared by herself on the cover of People. Like it or not, Bristol is a public figure. She’s not just a politician’s kid in the way that Palin’s other children, or Sasha and Malia Obama are. Is a joke about someone’s kid classy? No, but Bristol is either almost of age, or is already of age (I can’t recall which), and has turned herself into a public figure.
I believe Dave when he said he thought Bristol was the one with Sarah Palin in NYC, not 14 year old Willow. Doesn’t change the fact that I’m still mad at him for giving Sarah Palin a platform again!
Basketball and Colbert. I’m sure Conan will win today.
It helps that David is in a heated feud with Sarah Palin right now. Sarah is unwittingly helping him with her appearance on the Today Show. Now we all will wnat to hear David’s reply. Although I could see a time when CBS may tell Mr.Letterman, enough.
i think the Lakers Magic games on ABC is hurting Conan’s numbers. like tuesday, the basketball game on ABC went into Conan’s show and he lost those two nights. i think it’s because conan’s viewers are young and many were watching the game that went into OT.
So Conan loses when basketball is on? That’s all you had to say in this post. I didn’t even watch Conan last night, because of the basketball game. Let’s not act like Dave is really beating him, because the NBA takes a big chunk from Conan. When the playoffs are over, Conan will win the vast majority of the nights.
what the hell was “comedian” norm mcdonald doing on conan last night? that fool defines the term unfunny.
The reason the NBA hurts Conan is because the audience that is marketed towards Conan also watches the NBA. It’s not science it’s really simple to figure out that older viewers are switching to Dave. But the thing that you have to understand is that Conan is their to attract new viewers…which he is doing.
That’s why Conan can lose in the overall ratings but still be in a better advertising position then Dave. it’s all about 18 – 49
Seriously, there are Jimmy Fallon fans?
And Norm McDonald is awesome.
Wow, this article’s pretty biased. I realize blogs aren’t necessarily bound to journalistic integrity, but still, the site’s been really neutral in the past. Why the sudden change? The fact is Letterman beat Conan in the household ratings, which the networks definitely do take notice of. We all know the key demographic of 18-49 is important, but why try to downplay the overall numbers?
Anyway, as for my opinion on the numbers, this doesn’t bode well for Conan. It’s only his second week, and he shouldn’t have leveled out like this until around week three or four. I have a hard time believing Letterman, who averaged a 1-1.1 in 18-49 back when his households were averaging in at 2.7, only got a .9 on a night where his household was a 3.5. I’m sure Conan’s still winning the age demo, and he’s certainly in no danger of going off the air (seriously people, don’t be so extreme, Conan’s not going anywhere), but NBC can’t be happy.
Name guest matter and especially if they are popular. I watched Letterman and enjoyed Denzel Washington and suprisingly The Jonas Brothers also. Dave has a repor with his guest and Conan to me at times doesn’t seem to be listening to his guest and is too quirky. So Letterman get my viewership at 11:35pm and Ferguson was hilarious last night also.
TSA,
The overnight numbers are being downplayed, because all this week, Letterman and Conan have been going back and forth as to who is #1 on a given night. Conan won Monday and Wednesday. Letterman won Tuesday and last night. So the overnight household numbers are a wash. The only pattern that’s really emerging is that Conan is consistently winning in demos.
You can say all you want that it matters that The Tonight Show was #1 under Jay and is now sometimes #2 under Conan. But, you need to realize this. While for the past 50 years, the show has always been titled “The Tonight Show,” it has really has been The Johnny Carson Show, then it was The Jay Leno show, and now it’s The Conan O’Brien show. Conan wasn’t expected to hold onto all of the older viewers that boosted Jay in the household ratings, because people don’t just watch “The Tonight Show”. They watch for the host.
The network realizes that a lot of people never saw Conan at 12:30, and that Conan needs time to establish his 11:30 audience. NBC knows this… they want younger viewers. If Conan hadn’t been killing in the demos, that would be front-page news. But he isn’t expected to kill in the overnights just yet.
Sarah Palin to Dave = Hugh Grant to Leno
“Conan won Monday and Wednesday. Letterman won Tuesday and last night.”
This explains it all. What was on Tuesday and Thursday, that would make Conan lose? All this “analysis” that people are doing and thinking that the Jonas Brother, Palin, or Denzel helped Dave, simply isn’t true. He only won because of basketball.
TSA we’ve been biased towards a focus on the age demos since that what drives revenue for quite some time. We have, in many places on this site, downplayed the overall numbers only because they don’t typically drive how much money the networks make. I bring up the disclaimer of the 18-49 data because we think it matters.
I personally didn’t watch either Conan or Dave all week, so I don’t personally have any bias for or against either.
I bring up the importance of the 18-49 numbers because it is really important. Unfortunately we (likely) will never see the data for individual nights, but when it comes to the 18-49 numbers I do think that next week’s release with this week’s (weekly average) numbers will be far more telling than the release yesterday for the first week.
I have not watched either but prefer Dave. Never liked Conan not going to start now. KT8711 posted that “Conan wasn’t expected to hold onto all of the older viewers that boosted Jay in the household ratings, because people don’t just watch ‘The Tonight Show’. They watch for the host.” Well people watched the “Tonight Show With Johnny Carson” because of Carson but Leno had better ratings, he kept the older viewers that loved Carson. Conan is not Leno and will never have a ratings grip that Leno had. Conan will give new life to Letterman, well Conan and Sarah Palin. I will turn on Letterman tonight following the NHL Stanley Cup final on NBC to see what is up between Dave and Sarah.
I bet Dave wins the overnights tonight. He won them on Tuesday when NBC aired hockey and they are airing hockey again tonight. NBC was also fourth last night when Dave won the overnights.
It’s the no shame game when it comes to using the Letterman-Palin reality show for all it’s worth. Survivors include Late Show producers, Republican and Democratic strategists, Letterman and Palin, and any number of radio, news and talk show personalities that regularly forage the airwaves, e-ways and hallways for anything life-like in the human domain that can drive up ratings or widen the divide that keeps them viable – and keeps us e-conversing at our own expense for the benefit of Verizon, AT&T, and Nextel bottom lines. Come on. Get real. The joke wasn’t funny and children raising children never is. But that wasn’t the point.
The reason Leno had better ratings than Carson is because at the end people were TIRED of Carson doing the same schtick for thirty years. Now people are tired of JAY doing the same schtick for X years, and tired of DAVE doing the same schtick for 27 years.
Also Leno was a frequent guest host when Carson was main host, and he built up a following ON the show before taking over the show. Conan doesn’t have that capability.
As for Palin, personally I hope Dave takes off the gloves and savages her for the next two weeks until she slinks away. It would be a turkey shoot for him.
In the end, there isn’t a penny’s worth of difference between all the shows.
I agree with RSH about the reason for Carson’s slumping ratings at the end. At his peak, Carson had ratings that all the late night shows COMBINED will never meet.
This isn’t the best comparison because Leno will be back in a few months at 9:00, while Carson really retired (although a lot of people thought he’d be back), but just for reference…
Carson’s last Tonight Show had 41 million viewers.
Leno’s last Tonight show had 11.9 million viewers.
I wonder if Colbert is affecting Conan this week. They seem to have similar audiences. I watched Conan last week, but this week, I watched Colbert doing his show in Iraq.
I doubt that Leno’s rating ever matched Carson’s other than a few shows that were big draws for some reason or another. For that matter, Leno’s move into first place in 94 was more a matter of Letterman cooling off after ratings taht far exceeded expectations for his first year or so on the Late Show. Of course, the tv universe is far different today than in Johnny’s heyday, so comparions are a bit off anyhow.
The basketball argument doesn’t really work for me because while I can see the finals could potentially cause Conan to lose viewers, I don’t see how it could cause Dave to gain viewers. I think for the next few months it’s just going to be a guest competition.
Leno’s final episode wasn’t his final episode. When Johnny said good bye that night – he was gone. He locked his gates and died (outside of his visit with Letterman). But with Leno – he’s merely moving up to 10 p.m. with the same show.
Conan isn’t doing well with the folks who used to insist on telling me whatever Leno was doing. And eventually the “kids” who started watching Conan are going to slide into that unwanted demographic in a few years.
Palin hinting that Letterman is a child molester on the Today Show should boost the eyeball factor for tonight’s monologue.
The reason Carson fell off was not the same old schtick but the proliferation of cable and more than 3 or 4 channels. Jay has experienced a similar fate and Conan if he lasts will see the same thing as cable programming improves over time.
Letterman & his writers are a bunch of deviants who needed a outlet for their Bush bashing now that Bush is out of office. What better target than Palin who may make a run in ‘12? Best keep bashing on her to keep her down in the public’s eyes.
To me, Sarah Palin is what Barry Obama would have ended up as if big media decided to put a critical microscope on him.
As it is, if it turns out to give them few rating points that probably a bonus for Dave & co.
Conan IS a joke! He is SO not funny. I hope NBC falls on it’s ass for this little move. And btw, DAM Sandra Bullock looks good! Right now. Gezz, looks at those legs! Phfffffffff. I want one.
I hate to get into politics, but if Palin runs for President OR Vice President in 2012, just put a fork in this country, it’s done. If she keeps screwing around with Letterman, he will eat her for breakfast and then go to the IHOP for pancakes. There’s no way she can win any fight with him. He will destroy her if he has to.
On topic, my point about Letterman vs Leno ratings wasn’t that Carson was gone for good, it was that he was gone because he was over. That Leno isn’t gone for good doesn’t matter, his ratings are going to go down, as well as Letterman’s, as people finally get tired of the same old schtick.
I’m sure the proliferation of cable had something to do with it, but still it has to be getting old to watch the same stuff for 20-30 YEARS with the SAME GUY!
Talk shows are OLD HAT. The day time is owned by female talk show hosts, and the night is owned by male talk show hosts. That should tick off women more, I don’t know why it doesn’t. But it doesn’t matter, since they all look and sound exactly the same. Why anybody would expect some sort of quality from this format is a mystery to me.
The only difference between talk shows is how crazy the host is. Period. You’ve got people like Regis and Kathy – and then you have people like Graham Norton. That’s your choice. Everything else is set and forget.
So I’m amazed that anybody can really say that Letterman is one thing or Conan is another in terms of quality. You can say you don’t like their particular approach but that’s it. The format not only will never change, it CAN’T change. There’s only so many ways one host can talk to some guests sitting on chairs.
Since I download clips of interviews with my favorite babes, I’ve seen ALL the talk show hosts: Ellen, Regis and Kathy, Bonnie Hunt, Chelsea, Fallon, Conan, Daley, Leno, Letterman, Ferguson, Norton, even overseas hosts (ever watch Terry Wogan in England? The morning talk shows in England?). The only variation is in how crazy the host is.
So I find them all more or less identical, with a slight preference for Ferguson and Jon Stewart, Ferguson because he’s engagingly nuts with an accent and Stewart because he can do both serious and comedy interviews.
You could replace everybody else with an appropriately programmed Japanese robot – like this one!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1SADcP5g1o&feature=related
(Sorry for the mostly off-topic post, but I wanted to respond to this)
“To me, Sarah Palin is what Barry Obama would have ended up as if big media decided to put a critical microscope on him.”
Pul-lease. Obama was actually scrutinized more than Palin. It was just over a longer period of time since he was running for president for almost 2 years, while she went from obscurity to being considered for the second most powerful position in the country.
The biggest knock on her is that she isn’t very bright, and I’m not sure how anyone can seriously argue otherwise. While Obama graduated from Columbia and Harvard (magna cum laude), she went to 5 colleges to get an undergraduate degree in journalism, and yet has trouble forming proper sentences.
The democrats can only hope that she is the 2012 nominee, as unlikely as that is. It will be a cakewalk for Obama’s re-election. Even in Alaska, her approval rating is down to 55%.
As for Letterman, it appears he decided to take the high road and not respond to Palin’s latest attacks on him.
“Pul-lease. Obama was actually scrutinized more than Palin. It was just over a longer period of time since he was running for president for almost 2 years, while she went from obscurity to being considered for the second most powerful position in the country.”
How so? For a guy who wants to spread the wealth around, why is 1/2 of his family still living in dirt huts or in the projects if they managed to sneek into this country? Why did we find out only 6-7 months to election day he spent almost 20 years attending a racist church? What little he gave to charity all those years mostly went to that racist church BTW.
“The biggest knock on her is that she isn’t very bright, and I’m not sure how anyone can seriously argue otherwise. While Obama graduated from Columbia and Harvard (magna cum laude), she went to 5 colleges to get an undergraduate degree in journalism, and yet has trouble forming proper sentences.”
And yet, she took on her own party and won. If you’re a Republican and don’t talk like William Buckly Jr. or bash your own party you’re always going to be portrayed as a dunce. We only know what he tells us. To this day Barry refuses to release his academic records. He’s only good when he’s reading off a teleprompter. Without it, BHO is just as much of a gaff machine as his vp.
“The democrats can only hope that she is the 2012 nominee, as unlikely as that is. It will be a cakewalk for Obama’s re-election. Even in Alaska, her approval rating is down to 55%.”
So what’s your point? That’s only 1 less than Barry’s right now.
“As for Letterman, it appears he decided to take the high road and not respond to Palin’s latest attacks on him.”
More like he’s probably worried about any backlash if he pushes it anymore. Palin’s not a push over like McCain was during the election toward Letterman or anyone who’s going to make off color remarks about her family.
Though it’d be interesting to see if his ratings either go up or down if Letterman did push to the issue.
Folks, I have tired of the political comments on this post and the other Conan/Dave posts. We’re a TV numbers website and the political comments have no place here.
I have now closed commenting on it. I will discuss with Robert closing comments on all these Dave/Conan posts in the future.