I enjoy seeing the weekly ratings for the Tonight Show, The Late Show and Nightline since Conan O’Brien took over the Tonight Show, before the switch I never much cared about them because they were boringly repetitive. Same with our readers, judging by the number of page views those posts have received.
Grasping for something to write about in the dog days of summer, the TV media has set upon the late night battle with a vengeance. I’d decided to let it all go until sometime this fall to see how things settled out, but the wacky idea that NBC would move local news to 10pm and put Jay Leno on at 10:30pm (originated from an ex-NBC employee via the Washington Post) made me decide write something now about all the current silliness.
It’s Way Too Early To Draw Any Conclusions About Conan’s Tonight Show!
- It’s summer – low broadcast viewership everywhere. Until people are watching broadcast again in September, predicting the future on summer numbers is silly.
- Michael Jackson’s death – gave Nightline a big boost, as well as plenty of cable and syndicated late night options. That won’t last forever (although it seems like it might).
- Jay Leno moving to 10pm – is going to scramble everything on broadcast after 10pm, and while many think Jay@10 is a negative for Conan, I’m adopting a wait and see attitude. Regardless, it’s a huge change with unknown effects.
These things are not going to happen:
NBC is not going to move Leno back to 11:35 this season. No chance. Whatever the downside of keeping Leno at 10 and Conan at 11:35, a move this season would be far worse. Next season anything can happen.
NBC is not going to give the 10-10:30 period to local affiliates and put Jay @10:30. First of all, it would be a huge logistical change for the local affiliates. Second, that kind of move is very difficult to reverse. They can take Jay out of 10pm in future seasons and put dramas back in, but not if they’ve already given it back to the local affiliates.
Could Conan ultimately prove to be a failure on the Tonight Show? Sure. I’m not predicting anything at this point. I’ll wait to do that sometime this fall when the tea leaves are a lot clearer.
You’re right to withhold a verdict until the fall. However, one important factor you’ve omitted in your analysis is the poor quality of Conan’s Tonight Show. I was a fan of his performance on Late Night but he has been woefully miscast as the host of a big tent show. You can see the terror in his eyes and it’s off-putting. I have never been a big fan of Letterman but I am watching him now. I’m not alone, apparently.
Conan is great!
I agree as well that this story has a long way to go – late night is a true marathon, and Conan certainly has the talent to turn things around.
I brought up this point in another thread, but thought it would pertain here as well:
It’s very interesting to compare Conan’s move to the very similar transition Letterman made in ‘93. David Letterman was saddled with going to a network with a horrible record in late night and spotty station clearances. and made the transition look easy – the show was firing on all cylinders right out of the gate. Sure, Leno came back to take the lead after a few years, but Dave should be given an enormous amount of credit for his graceful move to 11:30, especially compared with the way we’ve seen Conan handling it.
I don’t think Conan has terror in his eyes, he seems confident to me. But his personality isn’t big enough to fill that big stage. Also, it’s clear he’s much more NY and much less LA.
Conan’s problem is he’s a clown, not a ringleader, and clowns are only as good as their last joke.
Bill, it is too early to deliver a verdict but I think that what’s surprising everyone is this-EVERYONE predicted Conan would do better than Jay among 18-49s. NOBODY was worried about the 18-49s. But for the past few weeks, Conan’s been doing worse than Jay in the 18-49s.
What were Jay’s 18-49’s a year ago?
Bill,
thanks for the article. I have to admit that while this transition has been tough on Conan it has been good for you guys. Good points in your piece.
As for Conan’s terror, I think it’s clearly from pressure. Letterman doesn’t have any pressure. He was second place forever and never at risk of losing his job. He’s playing with house money.
Bill, how much of a leash do you think NBC would give Conan? You mention at least one year is definite, but do you think they would let him fulfill his contract or would that be pushing it if the ratings are still bad? I think letting him fulfill his contract would be good PR, but then again maybe the loss in advertiser revenue would be too much for NBC. Thanks for the article.
I’m a young person and I find Conan to be a little too hyper for me. I’m giving him a few more months to calm down before I check back in on his show.
In the meantime, I’m perfectly happy watching The Daily Show and The Colbert Report. I think that’s Conan’s main competition among young people, not Letterman.
Am I the only one thinking that Conan & Jimmy is more of a move for the future, rather than right now?
Both shows have a huge online presence, & attract a far younger audience, the kind of audience that will still be within the attractive demo’s for a few years, as well as being more attractive to the even younger people who will be turning into 18 years olds in the near future.
However, I agree with Rose, the Daily Show/Colbert is Conan’s main competition for that audience – hence why the online presence is so important.
I like Conan, but he’s no Leno.
I completely agree with Tyler. I personally don’t think NBC thought Conan would match Jay in the ratings, rather I think they were simply scared of losing him since he was shopping around for offers from other networks. Letterman will most likely retire at the end of his new five-year contract, and this could be an opportunity for Conan and Jimmy to build a core audience before attracting a wider audience once Letterman is gone.
And I think it’s ridiculous to spell doom for Conan right now. Although Letterman is narrowing the gap, The Tonight Show is still bringing in the money, and in the end, that’s what matters to NBC.
I think the Jay Leno Show might actually be a good thing for Conan since the focus and pressure will be on Jay come September, and that should help him ease into his role as the host of an iconic show.
Stewart and Colbert will compete with Conan’s audience, but will never win, since I don’t think cable stands a chance against a network, even if it is NBC.
I cannot even remember the last time I saw their shows. It might be a decade even. Bores me to tears.
My boyfriend and I were watching Conan the other night and trying to figure out why he’s so awkward in interviews – he’s never able to make the interview feel conversational! It always seems like he’s very painfully cueing the guest as to what anecdote they should tell next. My boyfriend pointed out that he has a cheat sheet in front of him and is constantly looking at it to see what question he should ask next – sometimes before the guest has even stopped talking! Look for it… as the guest finishes up their story they cut to a two-shot – Conan is laughing at the guest’s joke – and his eyes are focused down… on a piece of paper on his desk. It feels VERY uncomfortable.
Leno and Fallon are the only likable late night talent. Letterman is almost senile acting and so emensly not funny its unbareable…. and Conan? Hes just downright obnoxious and annoying. The others. I really havent even seen their shows.
I am not a late night tv fan really, but when I do watch, I am the key demo for the networks 18-49 … and I have to say a couple of things: 1) Conan is much more funny and interesting and REAL than Jay ever could be 2)I tune into Conan once in awhile and stay for awhile; I never ever tuned into Leno and stayed — insult to my intelligence 3) I always chose Dave over any of the others, but Conan has me before Dave if and when I sporadically check out late night 4) NBC — the network — is abysmally bad — failing in every time period/day/zone/genre — the people running NBC have no vision, no imagination 5) We should be, everyone should be discussing Zucker’s firing and necessary long overdue demise, not Conan’s!!!!!
Kenneth hit the nail on the head. Conan is a clown, not a ringleader. Everybody loves a clown but not every night and that’s what is going wrong with the Tonight Show. That is also why Dave hasn’t soared to the top as he too is a clown, just an old one. People like Johnny, Jay, Steve and Jack were true ringmasters, top in their craft. I’m not putting Conan down as even ringmasters need clowns or the show doesn’t go on.
Jack, I couldn’t have said it better
For those who’ve believed that somehow Conan should’ve come in and mastered the Tonight Show instantly, well I’m sorry, that’s insane. You have to remember that Dave actually guest hosted the Tonight Show under Johnny Carson many times, even before he moved to New York and became the host of Late Night. Letterman was already used to a big stage when he left NBC for CBS and started the Late Show. Conan didn’t do that and as a result he’s essentially starting cold. He has to figure out how to balance out what made him funny at 12:30 with the audience he has at 11:30. If he’s given time he’ll do that–remember Leno didn’t hit his stride with the Tonight Show until he got the Hugh Grant interview, and that was a bit into his run.
I agree with Meli.
It’s almost impossible to think that Conan would match Leno’s ratings in his first year. Give the poor guy some time before readying and carving out his tombstone!
Uh. Who cares? Get lives people. There is MUCH MUCH more to life than TV.
Jack you sound like a snob, which is not Jay Leno’s demographic anyway.
“Conan is much more funny and interesting and REAL than Jay ever could be”??? Oh, yeah? Compare and contrast. I’ll start: Jay is the typical average guy done good. He is never lewd, charitable, unassuming and oh, yes…FUNNY…depending on your idea of funny. The East-West Coast intelligencia aside, he strikes an American, universal chord. Oh, yeah, people love him, personally. You should have seen them at his concert in Detroit. Conan seems too self-absorbed to bother with the “unwashed masses”. Jay dives right in! Can’t wait for Fall!
Mike, when you study tv, watch tv, make tv related medias, talk about tv, blog comment about tv and teach tv then these comment streams are a really great sounding board.
@gorman – the technical logistics aren’t that huge a deal to deal with in most markets on the technical side, the add sales logistics would be the real rub.
I know Jay won the ratings battles, but honestly, how many memorable moments were there during Jay’s Tonight Show tenure? Hugh Grant is the obvious one, but after that…? Even with lower ratings, Dave’s show always had more of a buzz. I can understand how Letterman might rub people the wrong way, particularly after he started going after Bush, but in terms of being a television personality, he was/is head and shoulders above his competitors on the late shift.
How could they give 10PM to local affiliates? My NBC affiliate does news on FOX at 10PM.
I have to say there are lots of really good comments on here.
Meli, I liked your opinion on Conan,especially since you are Ferguson fan and a lot of Ferguson fans don’t like Conan for some reason. It will take time. Even Leno was a guest host for five years on the Tonight Show so he might have been a bit more used to that timeslot than Conan is. If Conan can’t cut it with mainstream audiences than he’ll just have to try to hit a homerun elsewhere.
For those calling Conan a clown, yes he can be clownish. He can also be really serious. I don’t think Leno is a ringleader though. Real good at standup, but he was never the whole package that Carson was.
Someone also mentioned that Fallon and Leno are naturally likable. This is an interesting point. I personally prefer Conan because he is more talented and creative, but I can’t deny that Fallon and Leno, while boring to me, are generally likable and inoffensive people.
also, Leno did have monster ratings. But I agree that his show never had Letterman’s classic moments. It is an interesting phenomenon. I’m biased but I think Conan has already averaged more spontaneous and crazy moments already than this point in Leno’s tenure.
I have nothing to add…just wanted to say that I LOVE that tombstone, particularly the epitaph. Bravo!
Conan’s been losing viewers cause he’s just not funny, that was painfully obvious during the writers strike, Leno wrote own jokes and still did a great job with his monologues, but Conan, he was like a fish out of water
Jay Leno is not a truly ‘hit show’ comedy brand–a la Seinfeld, or even Ray Ramano–so much as an easily digestible delivery system for mass appeal televisual comfort food. Few have ever watched him because he’s indelibly ‘funny’–because great comedy is about negotiating with angst, but because he makes a certain cross section of society feel comfortable about chuckling without needing to reflect on context. As to whether or not that’s a good or bad thing, is purely a question of taste, so in context of the determining factors of his success, the questions are:
A) Is that particular brand of comfort food salable in a primetime slot?
B) Are any of those whom it’s salable to in a desired advertising demographic?
C) Will the fix of a late night style format show at 10pm draw significant viewers away from NBC’s actual late night show?
I think the format question is especially relevent in terms of Leno, as with Leno’s years on the Tonight Show, the primary draw for his viewers was the Opening Monologue and the interviews. Skits and talent performance was secondary. So, will viewers place a premium on Monologues and promotions based interviews against scripted material? I don’t think so. Most of the interviews on major network weekly news magazine shows have an intimate, ‘tell all’ quality that makes them events within the context of a once-weekly format. The PR nature of interviews in a nightly late night format makes them more disposable, thus less valuble in primetime space. And five nights a week is too much to shore up viable ‘talent show’ roster a la Lawrence Welk…so where does this leave this slice of Late Night in prime time?
It’s really no more complicated than this:
Leno’s Tonight Show (and it’s humor) was lowest common denominator stuff. Things that the everyman in middle America could enjoy. Conan isn’t that. Neither is Dave, but he’s closer than he’s ever been and closer than anyone else on late night.
Where Conan is struggling is that he’s trying (or feels he needs to or is being told to) temper his show for the earlier audience…essentially dumbing down his offbeat humor and appealing to no one. The old Leno audience doesn’t like it (too wacky) and his former 12:30 audience doesn’t like it either (too sterile). If NBC wants Conan to crush the 18-49 demo at 11:30, let him do his old show.
I love both Dave and Conan and they occupied my 11:30 and 12:30 viewing for many, many years. Now I’m forced to DVR to watch both (and I do). I’m just happy that Leno’s bland brand of comedy entertainment is moving to 10pm when I have plenty of other choices and the quirkier O’Brien and Letterman are left for me to enjoy later.
Great, thoughtful post, Greennogo. Well said.
I think the Conan groupies need to chill a bit. I don’t think that anyone believes Conan is a week away from cancellation. The man has tremendous talent, and I’m pretty sure he’ll be able to right his ship eventually. Leno is going to be the big wild card for him. If NBC is able to use Leno to promote Conan effectively, maybe some crossover promos like with The Daily Show/Colbert, he’ll have a better chance.
But still, I say that NBC was expecting much more from Conan’s numbers at this point. Quotes from NBC execs in the media (Bill Carter’s NYT column) say as much. Once again, Letterman, even with his Tonight Show guesting, had relatively the same experience as Conan when the moved their shows. Remember, Conan has been on big stages, too – like hosting the Emmys a couple of times. The big difference between Dave and Conan moving to the big time is, Dave did it better, and Dave didn’t have 5 YEARS to plan the move.
Conan is rocking the 11:35 time slot. His material is fresher and funnier than Leno’s ever was, but Conan’s humor is edgier and obviously has turned off many older viewers. I’m hoping that Conan sticks to his guns and doesn’t water down his comedy. He’s doing a great show and should be given time to let newer audiences get used to his style of humor.
William, Conan has fewer young viewers than Jay did, in addition to fewer viewers overall.
Also, hilarious tombstone Bill.
Until Conan took over the Tonight show I hadn’t watched Leno or Dave in a decade. Frankly I’m in bed by 11:30p. I have DVRed every episode of the Tonight Show since Conan took over and I watch it every day. I’m sure how that phenomenon is measured. A friend of mine at work does the same thing.
I think Amelie Gillette of the AV Club put it best.
When reviewing Entertainment Weekly’s 14 best Jay Leno moments, it dawned on her that so many of those “moments” didn’t even involve Jay Leno. His Tonight Show may have been a powerhouse, but no one could say that it had its memorable moments. It was just mainstream comedy for those who hate to understand why they’re laughing.
Jay Leno’s viewers were those who didn’t get the appeal of Arrested Development, those think Dane Cook is the epitome of stand-up comedy and those who think Family Guy is funnier than the early years of the Simpsons.
Right now, Conan O’Brien has made more memorable moments in his less than two month run at the Tonight Show than Jay Leno did during his entire run, which is embarrassing.
I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, people may think Conan is in trouble and other may believe that his firing is imminent, but they’re not. If anything, this battle between Letterman and Conan is the best thing to happen to late night comedy since Johnny Carson. Now we can see quality creativity rather than a desperate comedian asking obvious questions to ignorant Americans on the street. Unfortunately, we won’t be safe from Jay Leno come Septemeber.
“Jay Leno’s viewers were those who didn’t get the appeal of Arrested Development, those think Dane Cook is the epitome of stand-up comedy and those who think Family Guy is funnier than the early years of the Simpsons.”
It’s sad that that kind of people even exist. But it’s very well said. I’m a big fan of Conan and I really think that Jay’s show was pointless, so I was very exited about the move to 11:30. His Tonight Show may not be as funny as Late Night was, but it takes its share of time to bulid up a show that’s both appealing to a new audience and still what Late Nightfans want. I’m sure The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brine will be THE late night show in 1, maybe 2 years.
The problem with the tonight show is that they’re trying to make Conan into a new Leno with the big stage, the LA stuff, etc. Conan is a New York guy…I think his Late Night show would have worked in the 1130 slot, they didn’t have to change anything.
Look at Letterman’s transistion from NBC to CBS…his show changed very little. It had the same feel, it had a comfortable, smaller stage. It was still Letterman, just a different look. Conan is moving to this huge, giant studio (WAAAAAY too big) in a new city during the dead of summer.
I think the issue here is with NBC and their idiotic decision to have Conan debut in the summer. Why couldn’t they have waited until September? Or early August at the very least in the leadup to the fall season?
Actually, Sean, Letterman’s show changed quite a bit when he moved to CBS – some fans are still complaining about it. But you’re right, he changed it in a way where it still had a Letterman feel, and he found a way to keep most of his old viewers while attracting some new ones. Conan has not figured out this recipe yet, for some of the reasons you describe.
Oh, and Conan had to debut in the summer because it was more important to debut prime-time Leno in the fall. It would be too difficult to promote those two new shows at the same time.
The late night talk show is a long long process and even then you can’t please everyone. Jay inherited the show under huge fire, much more than Conan, and he came away well enough. I think Conan has what it takes as well, just give him time.
Jay Leno is a stand-up, pure and simple. And he’s one of the best and hardest-working joke-tellers ever. His writers are kinda terrible at writing sketches. And anyway, that kind of stuff has been tried without success by SNL spin-offs in prime time.
So I’ll be really surprised if he makes big changes in what he does. He’s not a deep guy, he’s not going to do meaningful interviews. My prediction is he makes window-dressing changes to hide the fact that he’s doing the Tonight Show at 10, followed by the Tonight Show at 11:30.
If that works, that’ll be great for NBC, won’t it? And if it doesn’t, it’ll turn out that they didn’t really get away from making an ugly choice between Conan and Jay, they just delayed it.
I try not to make my opinion on Jay Leno sound like fact, but Sophia really put it well. I’ve always said that, in my opinion, Jay Leno’s audience was not the typical late night audience. It was much more mainstream.
“Conan’s problem is he’s a clown, not a ringleader, and clowns are only as good as their last joke.”
That’s one of the most perfect descriptions of it I’ve ever read. To lead a show of that size you need a certain stability and leadership, while also being funny. Letterman has it, Carson had it, Leno has it (though I don’t think he’s so funny), Craig Ferguson has it, and I’ve never seen the Ed Sullivan show but I’m guessing he had it too.
I loved Conan at 12:30– even went to see a show live once– but he just doesn’t have it. He’s really funny but there are tons of comedians who are funny but couldn’t host an 11:30 talk show. In fact MOST comedians that I can think of would be really bad at hosting late night TV. Doesn’t make them bad at comedy, they’re just lacking that something. (Jimmy Fallon doesn’t have it either, but that’s a whole other rant).
Conspiracy theory: they’re keeping Fallon on *because* he sucks, just in case they have to move Leno back to 11:30 and Conan back to 12:30.
Personally in my early 50’s I love Leno, Kimmel and Ferguson, I hate Letterman and find Conan and Falon tolerable.
However my better half is in her early forties and she loves Conan and Kimmel above the rest so maybe he does appeal to a younger crowd.
I will be very curious to see what happens when Leno goes on Earlier in the fall.
ChickaBOOMer — Conan: Doomed to Tomb?
chickaboomer.blogspot.com/2009/07/conan-doomed-to-tomb.html
OMG…Conan is a terrible host…Jay was great and will be great at 10….I now watch Letterman or Nightline….Conan is just plain goofy…..sure does not compare to Parr, Carson and Leno…..what did NBC think would happen when they put on a goofy guy…
Trav–well I’ve never had a serious problem with Conan other than I don’t find him extremely funny. And sorry, Jimmy Fallon is worse. But the difference to me is that Conan deserves the right to be able to be given time to adjust things and maybe he’ll improve in his new slot. When I have checked in on him on the Tonight Show I don’t get the feeling that he’s not funny, I just sense that he’s very uncomfortable. It’s a huge difference in Fallon attempting to be funny and just failing.
And I have to remember Craig Ferguson’s first months on the Late Late Show. Everybody was saying he wasn’t funny, that he couldn’t tell jokes, that he seemed stiff, etc. But he knew that himself and he also had Peter Lasally pushing him to loosen up and make it his own. So he stopped doing the traditional setup/punchline/pause-for-laugh and started telling stories. He was given the freedom to move things about, and he still does that to a certain extent. So I’m hoping if Conan is wanting to stay with the Tonight Show that he has people on his side who are willing to let him change the format if it’ll simply make him loosen up.
The comments left by Sophia made me chuckle. You probably could not find a bigger fan of Arrested Development than me. I also believe the early seasons of The Simpsons were comedic gold while I hate Family Guy. And guess what, I also enjoy Jay Leno. So try not to generalize.
Yeah, Leno is lame, and also he’s kind of a douche, and the way he says sexual things to female guests sometimes, well, that’s sexual harassment in any office but because he’s on TV, it’s somehow okay. And he’s not even funny.
Conan is a good guy, and he’s funny, Leno appeals to the more conservative Middle America watchers who in general are not very intelligent, so it doesn’t take much to get them to laugh. Conan’s humour is young, edgy, fresh, funny, and most of all, it’s what republicans would call “liberal”, so of course he’s gonna turn off a lot of former Leno viewers who were most probably of the opposite persuasion. (Those overconservative fear-based small towners that watched Joan of Arcadia and Touched By Angel with a passion as the second coming of Jesus.) I’m Catholic by the way, but I know when someone is trying to push those oversentimental “cry now” buttons on TV.
Leno pushes those “laugh now” buttons, and the gullible idiots who watch him just go along with it even though he’s not even the least bit funny.
And let’s not forget Jay Leno’s GIANT OVERSIZED BLOATED EGO and the fact that he stole The Tonight Show from Letterman, who deserved it more than he did. I’m 26 by the way, but I did my homework on that.
I find it tacky to bash people for enjoying something that does not cause any harm to anyone else. Lucy, is it really necessary to call people gullible idiots when they prefer one late-night host over another. And I too have been reading up on the history of when Jay Leno took over The Tonight Show, I don’t see how he stole it from Letterman.
Yeah. How long of a list of excuses do you need?
Don’t worry about Conan the Barbarian yet because:
We had a couple of full moons
The Beer Summit
Health care debate makes people sleepy
Sarah Palin is no longer governor
New York has a cool summer
And…and…and…
How about just admitting Conan is not a good fit
for what people think the tonight show should be.
I would be a Kobie Bryant team mate if I was
just a foot taller, had practiced basketball, got
a college scholarship, had good reflexes, could shoot
the 20 foot jumper, and… and… except for that, I
coulda been somebody!
What’s missing from this thread is the affiliates, who are already complaining about having to carry the Leno Show at 10 and are urging NBC to return him to the Tonight Show. The affiliates don’t call the shots, NBC does, but their voices are being heard. It’s going to be interesting. They’re much less patient about the Conan “experiment” than NBC is.
Lucy,
Leno didn’t steal the show, NBC executives gave it to him. At one time, Hillary Clinton was a lock in for the Democratic Nomition, does that mean Obama has a huge ego and stole the presidency (sounds like someone else ?)
Letterman might have been Carson’s heir apparent, but NBC was smart enough to recognize that Leno had wider appeal, and they were right.
I don’t know where you do your homework, because by most accounts, Leno is one of the most humble guys in showbiz.
When Letterman or Leno start they show, they rating was low too. We must give Conan 1-2 years. Conan is very funny and creative he’s gonna find he’s way.
LOL @ Lucy – bitter much? As others have mentioned here, MANY, MANY people in/outside of showbiz will tell you Jay Leno is a genuinely NICE guy. No ifs, ands or buts about it. This is pretty much a fact, so you name-calling him is not going to get you anywhere.
As for the other discussion here that Conan should be “given time” – IMO this is a very dangerous statement to make. If this was 1993, then yeah…giving Conan “time” would have been feasible. But this is 2009 – the late-night competition isn’t limited to a few networks….there are SOOOOOO many other options at 11:30pm, and it’s quite obvious a big chunk of people have left NBC and are watching the “other” options. Once people find other stuff to enjoy during late-night…they’ll STAY there. They won’t come back to Conan “in a few years” to see if he’s improved or any of that mumbo-jumbo.
The thing is, NBC does have time – they have until the end of this upcoming TV season to make a decision. The original post was pretty dead-on in saying that NBC won’t/can’t change course in midstream. So Conan has at least a few more months, and presumably the picture will be clearer then.
The most interesting part of this whole thing (to me, anyway) is what would happen if Leno was reinstated at the Tonight Show. NBC could just fire Conan and keep Fallon at 12:30, or they could do the opposite (fire Fallon and put Conan back where he was) – either way, somebody has to go (I don’t see Fallon moving to Carson Daly’s spot, since that show is only there because it’s dirt cheap). Where does that leave NBC? If Conan can’t cut it at 11:30 do they keep Fallon around because he’s younger and presumably cheaper, even though I doubt anyone expects him to take over the Tonight Show in the future?
At this point I’m betting things will stay the same just because NBC doesn’t want to go through Leno Part II and risk Conan jumping to another network – he’s not a clear ratings winner, but he’s more than likely able to cause damage. I could see him sitting out a few years and replacing Letterman – I love Ferguson but who knows what changes CBS would want to make if he moved to 11:30? Ferguson might work better playing the Tom Snyder role. Or, if you want a really far-out scenario, Fox could snag him and give late night another try and be instantly competitive.
I don’t think Ferguson going to Fox at 11:30 is a strange idea at all. His contract expires at the end of next year and I think he’s in negotiations right now. I also think ABC might consider getting rid of Nightline and having Ferguson at 11:30, Kimmel at 12:30. Ferguson is just that talented–the other networks would be crazy not to steal him from CBS, who frsnkly has treated him like Cinderella to Dave’s evil stepsister.
I have stopped watching Letterman due to his far left political agenda. I have now decided to stop watching Conan, as well. He jokes, no cuts down only conservatives. O.K., when Bush was in power a late night comic can slam the standing President (fair game.) So, why not joke about Obama now or the democrats. I’ve kept count and he is grossly unfair with his “humor”. Although he hasn’t been in L.A. very long, he’s gone Hollywood and middle America is getting pretty sick of that. I think they’ll stop veiwing also. Carson always remembered who is audience was. I want to go to bed with a few jokes that make me smile, not political propaganda. With Leno you didn’t know where his poltics stood. He made fun of everyone in a fair manner.
You know I can’t stand Conan–but then I never could stand him. Not that I don’t *like* him–he’s likeable, I guess. But if he’s funny, I don’t get it. Give me something drop-dead funny like Leno’s “Jaywalking” shticks. I just feel embarrassed by O’Brien. Also–I like Letterman’s biting political humor.
and also–will Conan ever have a classic like Dave’s “in the worst way” crack to Blagoyevich?
@Petal, I actually meant that Conan could move to Fox (the poor wording of my statement was entirely my fault), but that’s another interesting idea – I didn’t know Ferguson’s contract was up. I assume he’s probably angling for a contract that names him as Letterman’s eventual replacement. Either way, if any late night shakeups end up happening I think it would be really interesting to see Fox enter the competition – their biggest (and maybe only) problem is that they’d either have to air a late night show at 10:30 after the news or at 11:30 after an hour of syndicated reruns.
I actually think CBS has been decent to Ferguson though – they don’t give him enough advertising, but they have given him a ton of control over how he presents his show. The main thing I’d worry about regarding him moving to 11:30 is that CBS (or another network) would want something a bit more standard. I think the Tom Snyder comparison I made before is pretty apt – Ferguson is a really funny man who has an interest in discussing serious issues, and I would hate to see that changed.
First, everyone should remember that Late Late Show is owned by Worldwide Pants, not CBS. It’s part of the deal Letterman made when he moved to the network in ‘93. Ferguson has never publicly said anything but admirable comments about his boss Dave.
Also, Craig stated in numerous interviews in the last year that he does NOT want the 11:30 slot. He feels comfortable at 12:30 (smart move). It is generally assumed that the leading candidate for the Late Show when Dave retires is a fellow host from the Viacom family, John Stewart.
Lastly, CBS will announce tomorrow that Late Late Show is moving to HD in September, and will have a new opening credits sequence (but still keep the cold open).
Local News at 10, 9 Central. That’s a good fit. Think about it, NBC with 3 hours of late night. Leno followed by Conan and Jimmy. They would once again be the late night leader. Oh, I forgot that gutted out mess called Last Call with Carson Daly. I say cancel it. CBS just needs to find a third talker to follow up Craig Ferguson and bump everyone down the hour.
SB, If people won’t watch Letterman (cough, cough, Georgette) because of HIS political “agenda,” why do you think Stewart would be a good replacement for Letterman? He would immediately turn off half the country (the stupid half, but still…) Ferguson, while astute, has avoided poltical controversy on his show. He’s also a hell of a lot funnier and smarter than Stewart. But, if CBS doesn’t take care of him, someone else will.
Chic, first, remember, it’s not just me saying this about Stewart to Late Show. It’s been reported by various news outlets for the last year or so. I can certainly see what the thinking is, though. Stewart’s political views may drive away some or many viewers, but his demographic pull is about the best of any late night host on the scene. He’s probably already more familiar and more popular with the desired demos than Conan. And he’s very familiar with viewers of all ages – he’s hosted the Oscars, and had cover articles on all of America’s most prominent magazines. Hell, a Time magazine poll just found him to be America’s Most Trusted Newsman – that takes popularity!
I’m sure CBS would plan with Stewart to make the show much less politically oriented and more of a general purpose talk show (Stewart used to host shows like that in the 90’s on MTV and for syndication, so he’s done it before).
Plus, Stewart is a solidly NY guy who could roll right into the Ed Sullivan Theater. Ferguson has a child in LA, and would probably be more loathe to move across country to do a show. I think CBS is more comfortable with having Late Show stay in NYC, and the better bookings Dave is getting right now over Conan show why.
Again, I’m not sure why people are thinking CBS desperately needs to do something more right now to make Craig happy. He was given LLS despite enormous odds against him, he seems very happy to have been given the opportunity, and has expressed nothing but good feelings towards CBS in interviews. He also has expressed he doesn’t want to go anywhere, even a move up to 11:30. Craig seems to like his cozy little corner of the TV world, where he gets to do whatever he wants and the network leaves him alone. Remember, extra publicity and more prominent time slots can be enticing, but they can also add undo pressure and complications that make life on TV a lot less fun. Just ask Conan.
I really think everyone is freaking out about Conan for no valid reason. Anyone who expected him to come in, take over, and immediately dominate Letterman is not thinking clearly! I have a feeling many people who are predicting Conan’s failure were hoping for it from the beginning. As someone mentioned earlier, even Leno was number 2 for a while when he was first starting out. He’s going to do just fine and I have no doubt he’ll build an audience.
There’s no way NBC would pull him so quickly anyway because it would make them look weak and that’s the last thing they want right now. They want everyone to think they made the right decision, and I think in the long run they did. I think Conan will build an audience and it will probably be made up of a younger generation that will keep The Tonight Show alive for years to come…it’s just going to take time…
David Letterman rules, and you can tell that the person that writes these articles on this website about the Conan/Dave ratings is a fan of Conan and not Letterman. These people on this site always try to spin stuff around by saying Conan beats Letterman in all Demos and they ignore the fact that Letterman is kicking Conan’s butt in total viewers. I know you people on this site are Conan facts and hate the fact that Letterman is winning in total viewers!
JM, a conspiracy theorist eh? I can’t speak for Bill’s preference in late night shows — I think he doesn’t watch *any* of them but is more likely to watch a Letterman top 10 on the Internet than a Conan monologue. That’s definitely the case for me. We don’t have any rooting interest in the contest. We post both the releases from CBS and NBC.
Sometimes we highlight the NBC releases more, but that’s not because we favor NBC’s version of the spin, it’s because the NBC release has a lot more detail and a lot more numbers, including late night numbers for Comedy Central and Adult Swim. Since this is a site about numbers, we’re always happy when there are more numbers.
Conan should just go for it and let the Masturbating Bear co-host.
You can write Conan’s epitath right now. I was writing it before he took over. I saw it coming. Conan is finished. Done. Over. Kaput. Any adjective you want to use. Conan has no talent. He can’t tell jokes. I predicted that he wouldn’t last two years before he even started the Tonight Show. Conan’s style is a mismatch for the Tonight Show from the word go. It doesn’t take a whole lot of sense to figure that out. O’brien has cut the show’s audience in half! And they ain’t comin’ back as long as he is the host. Write it down. I called it!
People who say Conan can’t tell jokes make ME laugh, since his previous show had been running for some time, and I always find his interviews funny. His comedy style is different than the other hosts, but that’s about it for differences between these guys. Their styles are different but the shows are the same.
I’d say ALL the comments here tell you more about the commenters than they do about ANY of the late night hosts. People are projecting their own personalities on these guys. when in reality, as I’ve said repeatedly here, there isn’t much difference between any of them, and certainly ZERO difference between the shows themselves. People also are trying to micro-analyze these shows – who has more skits or a different kind of monologue or different guests – when in reality it’s all PAINFULLY the SAME!
As I’ve also said repeatedly, the talk show format has not changed in fifty years and won’t change for another fifty, assuming it survives that long.
As for The Tonight Show’s “style”, it’s had a different – but still similar – “style” with every host for the last sixty years, from Allen, to Paar, to Carson, to Leno, to Conan. Somehow or other, the host’s “style” ends up not mattering because it’s The Tonight Show BRAND that matters. And every time the “new guy” comes in, it’s the same thing: he’s lousy, he can’t tell jokes, he’s boring, he’ll be out in a year, blah, blah, blah. And they all go on to make the show their own while still somehow making it look exactly the same as the last guy!
I might add that people who haven’t watched the show for more than two hosts, and better yet, for, say, forty years, probably shouldn’t comment on it. The world – and The Tonight Show – didn’t come into existence when you were born.