Wednesday nights on broadcast TV this fall is going to be filled with that new show smell. ABC’s all new, NBC has 2 new hours, and the CW and Fox are each 50% new. Only CBS is bringing back a veteran line up, presumably they’ll hang a little evergreen tree on the rearview mirror.
Below are the hourly lineups, including each shows 18-49 demo rating average (which includes in-slot repeats) from the 2008-9 season as well as my guesses for the fall nightly overall results.
If you enjoyed the Wednesday look ahead for the new season, check out Tuesday’s.
8:00
Hank (ABC), New
New Adventures of Old Christine (CBS), 2.0 18-49 demo rating
America’s Next Top Model (CW), 1.9 fall ‘08, 1.8 spring ‘09 demo ratings
So You Think You Can Dance (Fox), ~3.5 demo rating for Wed. & Thu. summer 2009 through 8/30
Mercy (NBC), New
8:30
The Middle (ABC), New
Gary Unmarried (CBS), 2.1 demo rating
9:00
Modern Family (ABC), New
Criminal Minds (CBS) 3.4 demo rating
The Beautiful Life (CW) New
Glee (Fox), New
Law & Order:SVU (NBC), 3.3 demo rating (@ 10pm last season)
9:30
Cougar Town (ABC), New
10:00
Eastwick (ABC), New
CSI:NY (CBS), 3.2 demo rating
The Jay Leno Show (NBC), New, Fall 2009 Tonight Show averaged about a 1.4-1.5 demo rating
My Guess
Wednesday looks like an easy CBS win with their strong 9 and 10pm shows. Their margin would be even bigger if it wasn’t millstoned by the 8pm comedy hour ratings losers. Since I expect Law & Order: SVU to improve its ratings at 9pm this season (vs. 10pm last season), if Mercy doesn’t crash immediately, NBC could start in a strong second due to early Leno tune in. Ultimately, I think that whoever ends up in second place (almost certainly Fox or NBC) will be well back of CBS’ nightly ratings in the 18-49 demo.
I think the best ABC can expect is to find a couple keepers out of its all new night. The worst case, a complete wipe out, is also possible. CW could easily improve on the night if The Beautiful Life does better than Stylista did in the same slot, not a very high hurdle.
Note: I make all my guesses completely unburdened by having read any reviews of any of the new shows, having seen any of the pilots, or knowing any more than the most casual details of their subject matter. Does that make mine better or worse than the typical TV writer which focuses almost solely on those? Your mileage may vary.
Fox caveat: Regardless of their other shows outcome of the major league baseball playoffs can make or break Fox’s fall averages. If they get long series with good matchups their overall season averages benefit tremendously. If they get short series with bad matchups, they’ll suffer.
I wish The Middle wasnt against Gary Unmarried!! I wish The Middle was at 8
I’ll be watching Hank, New Adventures of Old Christine, America’s Next Top Model, Mercy, The Middle, Modern Family, The Beautiful Life, Glee, Cougar Town, and Eastwick.
I have my dual DVR’s set!!
Hey Bill is there a Monday night preview like this one yet? Just curious cause I can’t find it if there is one. Thanks
Elyk, no Monday preview yet, I started with Tuesday simply because of tonight’s CW premieres. I will finish with Monday’s in advance of September 14.
I hope Modern Family gets canceled!
Bill, will you do a thursday preview tomorrow? I like the previews.
I’LL be Watching Old Christine (8pm), The Middle (8:30pm), Modern Family (9pm) and The Beautiful Life ( DVR)…
Just saw Modern Family. Office ripoff done with families.
We have all seen those jokes before. Stale, predictable, not one instantly likable character, and one really, really, annoying one, the cool dad.
wednesday its all about CW for me!!
I love tyra so i will watch again antm and tbl look very promising with nice cast.
i think that tbl will do much better than stylista did.i think it wil reach from 3,50 to 4-10 million viewers because of its lead in.so its premiere ratings depends from how good numbers will have antm that day.
i also give a shot on eastwick and maybe i ll watch the V premire on November!!!
here we go again another night will like a million shows i want to see them all exaped Top Modle and Dance
CBS should be worried that SYTYCD is going to hurt them the most at 8PM and 8:30. Old Christine and Gary Unmarried barely hung on last year against very little competition. Not to mention that ABC’s new comedies in the same time slot look like they will pull in the same kind of viewers. The rest of CBS’s lineup looks like it should do fine.
With NBC I see Mercy starting with Medium-like numbers and then it could go either way. It has one plus going for it and that is that it’s the only scripted drama at 8PM. SVU should do as well as it always has and may see a small bump due to being on at 9 instead of 10 this year.
ABC could either have a great night, or a terrible night. One thing I will say is that I am glad that they finally did a real comedy block and I hope that they stick with it and let it grow. Other then Hank the new comedies look fairly ok to good. Eastwick on the other hand will most likely be one of the first casualties of the 2009-2010 season. Think Lipstick Jungle and Pushing Daisies getting together and having a baby, that baby’s name is Eastwick. And we all know how poorly both of those shows did.
Something tells me that FOX has lower expectations for SYTYCD in the fall then they had in the summer. Will it see another fall season IDK either way it wouldn’t surprise me. But let’s focus on Glee, this is probably the most over hyped show of the season. It’s going to start with a bang from all the hype, and plummet pretty quickly, it’s just too much of a niche show for a general audience.
Finally the CW… ANTM will do as well as it has in the past. TBL will be hit or miss, but most likely be on par with the rest of the crap on the CW.
Wednesday night might be Leno’s best night of the week, with nothing standing out as a big hit at the moment, his only real competition is going to be CSI:NY.
Oh okay, thanks Bill!
BTW, is it safe to conjure that FOX is going to have the strongest lineup across the board the second half of the year?
American Idol-really stupid but people seem to watch it with 20+ million viewers.
House-Always dominant, even though it has been declining recently.
Fringe-Great new show with solid potential going into a second season.
Bones-Finally starting to gain some recognition as a hit show with 10 million viewers averaged.
Glee-Teens and women are gonna flock to this show, sure to be a success.
Hell’s Kitchen-A amazingly strong summer run, this show is a guilty pleasure for many and it’s showing with great demos.
Lie to Me-Great first season, and now with it behind House, this is going to be a huge success.
There only weak date seems to be Fridays, but fridays suck all around. Dollhouse and ‘Til Death, out after 12 episodes.
Any other views on who the strongest network will be?
I cant wait for Glee!!!
Look at night of tlevision where I don’t see anything I have any desire to watch.
Criminal Minds ftw.
I do wonder if Old Christine and Gary don’t do any better, CBS will put a new drama or an established hit like Survivor or The Amazing Race in that slot. They have two reality shows lined up for midseason which could easily slot in as will the I Get That a Lot specials.
Criminal Minds will get dented a bit by SVU but it’s got a solid audience and CSI:NY will thrive against Eastwick and Leno.
I know critics are anticipating the 9 o’clock hour with most of the seeming consensus of best new shows.
As for me, the shows I’ll have some sort of viewer interest in are Top Model mostly for the photos, Glee’s musical sequences, and maybe SVU sometimes for the rare good episode. Not sure I’ll watch a full episode of any of the above, though.
I don’t know about a “complete” ABC write-off but clearly a couple of shows are in trouble, take a look at the comedy block at 9:00/9:30.
First of all, new comedy shows? On ABC?
Secondly, look at the competition – Criminal Minds (CBS) 3.4 demo rating, Glee (Fox), New but HEAVILY promoted, Law & Order:SVU (NBC), 3.3 demo rating.
Experts, question: How bad would the ratings of Modern Family/Cougar Town have to be for them to get pulled after 4-5 weeks?
I think ABC’s new lineup is going to bomb. I predict they’ll be in fourth place. Putting Snot Rag on at 8 has to be the worst scheduling decision this year.
I suspect Eastwick will do better than expected, not a big hit but not too bad. One reviewer dismissed it as a combo of Charmed and Desperate Housewives but that doesn’t sound like something that would be a turn-off to everyone. I don’t think negative comparisons with the movie will matter much and that it will flop or succeed on its own merits.
As to the sitcoms, it’s a little hard for me to judge how they will do since every single one of them on this night on all networks looks gawdawful to me. Looking at this lineup makes it more clear to me why The Big Bang Theory does well – it’s pleasant and it’s not full of people who reek of burnout.
wednesdays are so boring
at least until lost starts up
i wonder how SVU will do
Well, aside from Eastwick, there’s nothing on Wednesdays on broadcast TV for me. And I’m not sure I’m all that interested in Eastwick, aside from Rebecca Romijn.
Although I imagine Cougar Town with Courtney Cox will provide me some interesting video clips to download on occasion.
Another light night for me. All my shows seem to be on Mondays and Thursdays.
ABC: Going with the 2hr comedy block is an awfully big risk… I just don’t see it working out. They may transplant their two best performers or cut it to an hour, but comedies are almost a niche market these days and it is hard to commit to the classic 2hr/4show system (cbs Monday is the last healthy block, with nbc Thursday a mediocre second).
CBS: Reduced results due to actual Wednesday competition this year vs last. Criminal Minds’ free ride has ended. I will be very interested to see the CM/SVU collision.
NBC: Mercy may do well, which could lead to strong SVU numbers (and in the previously mentioned higher hut time).
FOX: SYTYCD is reliable, but no ratings giant. Glee may get some youth from it but probably not much else, as it faces heavy competition from all nets at 9pm.
8-9pm
Competitive time: 3 new shows vs. 1 established summer hit trying the fall slot for the first time vs. 2 veterans which are not really ratings powerhouses. SYTYCD will win the 18-49 demo and probably the total viewers. I think no show will cross the 10 million viewers mark. Here’s my prediction
Hank – 7.5 million (2.0 demo)
The Middle 7.8 million (2.1 demo)
So You Think You Can Dance – 9 million (3.3 demo)
Mercy – 5 million (1.4 demo)
The New Adventures of Old Christine – 6.7 million (1.6 demo)
Gary Unmarried – 6 million (1.5 demo)
America’s Next Top Model – 3.5 million (1.6 demo)
9-10 pm
It will be SVU vs Criminal Minds. I think SVU could challenge Criminal Minds but both shows will be done due to intense competition. Glee might do well in the demo but will lag behind for sure in total viewers.
Modern Family – 7 million (2.0 demo)
Cougar Town – 7.5 million (2.1 demo)
Criminal Minds – 11 million (3.0 demo)
Law & Order:SVU – 10 million (2.9 demo)
Glee – 8 million (2.8 demo)
The Beautiful Life – 2.2 million (1.0 demo)
10-11 pm
CSI NY will win.
CSI NY: 13 million (3.3 demo)
Jay Leno: 8 million (2.5 demo)
Eastwick: 6 million (2.0 demo)
^ LOL! A 2.5 demo for Jay @ 10pm? I mean, I’m a BIG fan of Leno, but let’s be realistic here….
^ Well, I’m not a fan of Leno but I think he could get that kind of demo in the initial weeks of his show plus SVU could help. But then again that’s just a guess haha. What I’m sure is that CSI NY will easily win the night
My prediction
Hank – 5.5 million (1.8 demo)
The Middle 6.5 million (2.0 demo)
So You Think You Can Dance – 9 million (3 demo)
Mercy – 5 million (1.5 demo)
The New Adventures of Old Christine – 7 million (2.2 demo)
Gary Unmarried – 6.8 million (2.3 demo)
America’s Next Top Model – 3.7 million (1.9 demo)
9-10pm
Modern Family – 11 million (3.0 demo)
Cougar Town – 9 million (2.7 demo)
Criminal Minds – 14 million (3.3 demo)
Law & Order:SVU – 9 million (3.2 demo)
Glee – 7.5 million (2.5 demo)
The Beautiful Life – 3 million (1.5 demo)
10-11 pm
CSI NY: 14 million (3.2 demo)
Jay Leno: 5million (1.5 demo)
Eastwick: 7.5 million (2.6 demo)
People who think Glee is too much of “niche” show are underestimating the power of the musical. Musical movies are making a comeback in a big way, especially those geared toward teenagers. Look at the power of the High School Musical franchise. Having a musical television series, especially one that features fun remakes of popular songs, is a no-brainer.
I’m rooting for the ABC comedies. I’ve already seen Modern Family and love it. Cougar Town and The Middle both seem to have potential so I’m looking forward to those pilots. Not too excited for Hank. Meh. I’m afraid the whole block might crash and burn though.
I think Glee will do well, just not sure how well. I think it’ll at least retain most of the ‘Dance’ audience.
I think ABC’s entire line-up will fail, Mercy might do well, not sure about Fox’s line-up.
@r0ckmypants I understand that Highschool Musical was successful, but that was only a success because it’s a niche genre and Disney is a niche network. I could see Glee doing very well as a Mini series or a made for TV movie, but I don’t see it having any staying power as a full blown series. Sure Glee will probably have a huge premiere, but can it hold it’s initial audience? I’m thinking no
Musical movies are making a comeback in a big way, especially those geared toward teenagers.
Tell that to Bandslam.
I think CBS will easily win the night in both viewers and the demo. The all-new ABC night is a huge risk. I want to see the comedies do well just because they are branching out from their normal soapy dramas and this could give them some much-needed depth in the schedule, but trying to do such a big block of new shows could easily backfire.
8:00—The comedy vs comedy match up in the most interesting here. I think CBS will win in viewers with ABC taking the demo. SYTYCD will beat both. Mercy will bomb. Next Top Model will be up with the CBS comedies in the demo.
9:00–Of course, the CM/SVU match up will be interesting. SVU hasn’t had major competition for a long time. Tuesdays at 10 has been a weak spot for CBS since Judging Amy left and Boston Legal (right?) wasn’t a major powerhouse either. The benefit of moving an hour earlier will be canceled out by the competition. Criminal Minds has held up against Lost, Idol-infused Lie to Me, and Idol itself. SVU could hurt it some, but I think it could still take the hour in viewers and demo. Either way, it will be close. The ABC comedies could be in the running for the demo (close to the others, but not winning), but not in viewers. Glee will beat Beautiful Life.
10:00–Easy CBS win. Without L&O, CSI: NY will do well. Eastwick may do better than Forgotten and will probably beat Leno, but the ratings won’t be anything to write home about and I wouldn’t expect a second seaon.
Glee will beat Beautiful Life.
This made me laugh.
lol Julia, that made me laugh too
I’m rooting for the ABC comedies too but with the stiff competition, I’m afraid they will fail. But they did win with an all new Wednesday line up for some time with Pushing Daisies + Private Practice (and a competitive Dirty Sexy Money) but then the strike killed the momentum and you know the story. Maybe they could do it again. Well, at least I hope that at least 2 sitcoms will survive.
I like Glee it might start well like 10 million viewers with all the hype but in the long run I don’t see it beating Criminal Minds and SVU, they could be competitive in the demo though.
forg, The only momentum Daisies and DSM had was down. Both had fallen below a 2.5 before the strike hiatus. Practice did fare better but never really stabilized.
I’m rooting for the ABC comedies too, but it’s a big risk to put their best ones (Modern Family and Cougar Town) at the most competitive time slot of the night(Criminal Minds, Glee, L&O: SVU). Yikes. I can’t wait til end of September when the ratings will be posted. I do think SYTYCD will get in trouble and one of the new shows will be the first casualty of cancellation.
i think ABC’s 8-9 comedy block of The Middle and Hank looks like a total snooze fest.
As much as I love Patricia Heaton…just no.
I gave up on ANTM cylces ago. Cycle 2 was my fave.
Im gonna catch Old Christine, Gary, Glee, SVU, TBL (might give it a chance)
can’t wait for LOSSSSSSSSSSSSSSTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!
Holly: I stand corrected. Yup the numbers for PD and DSM were going down week by week back then but PD won the time slot in viewers for some weeks though but the competition back then was weak (Kid Nation, Back to You/’Til Death, Deal or no Deal) So when it returned for season 2 and it finished 4th I know the show is doomed already
But the comedies this season have better chances since they are more accessible to the audience than PD.
Bgun: Maybe ABC is relying on the critical buzz/hype for Modern Family and the star power of Courtney Cox to compete with SVU and CM. And from what I read (not from the U.S) ABC is promoting Modern Family a lot. If Cougar Town would survive this fall, I’m predicting stunt casting for the February sweeps (Matthew Perry or anyone from FRIENDS)
B. Life is going to be scandalously good!!!
We have to watch Hank at our house. Our 10 year old next door neighbor kid has the part of Hank’s son. We are pretty danged excited at our house.
Go Nathan. Show the world what a great kid you are.
Glee is also going to be a big hit at my house. My wife, daughter and grand daughter have made that clear. If it were on Monday night and the Seahawks were playing, I’d still lose (but I’d fight like hell).
Heck, the grand daughter has signed up for choir at th jr high school. Instructer says she has over double the usual kids. That tells me something.
I’ll be watching Glee on FOX, Cougar Town on NBC, and Eastwick on ABC. This is probably the slowest night except for Saturday and Sunday this season. I’ll DVR all three but watch two live depending on the mood and my availability.
I like all three of the women who star in Eastwick especially Jamie Rae Newman who has been stellar on Eureka. I’ve been wondering how that production schedule is jiving with the one for Eastwick.
Lizard
I’ve seen a lot about ABC’s 10/9C shows and that Leno will probably beat them. I actually think Castle, Eastwick, and Private Practice beat Leno’s overall numbers and if not they will at least beat the all important 25-49 demo. The one I’m not so sure of is The Forgotten which I will try at first but it may be the first show canceled this season.
Lizard
i like the mercy idea at 8, then TBL, and last eastwick! wednesday is gonna be hhumpday!
Wow, nothing to watch on Tuesday and Wednesday… all the good shows are gonna be stacked at the same time on Monday and Thursday… this is gonna be a streaming and DVR party.
I do think SYTYCD will be slightly down from Summer numbers (2.9-3.0); I also wonder if it will eat into ANTM numbers slightly. I see ANTM settling around 1.5 or 1.6.
I think Criminal Minds wins in overall viewers, SVU in demos. Though I am curious if SVU’s 18-49 beats CM’s CBS metric (25-54?).
Mercy will bomb, hard. The question being just what NBC throws in the slot from late November/December to the Olympics in mid-Feb?
(No, that was not a prompt to begin Chuck-ing. Even if NBC did air Chuck there pre-Olympics, what would they fill post-Olympic Mondays with? Buy more expensive Traumas for 9pm and make Day One even more of a money pit at 8pm? That doesn’t seem wise.)
ABC will be a relative disaster in demos. Note that I expect the comedies to start okay before tanking come late October. Eastwick in running to be first canceled show. I expect two to three comedies to survive, though who knows when they will end up (Wed is already looking like Lost day.)
I really think Glee will start to fade towards the end of its Fall run. I have no doubt it will get the Spring batch of episodes as well, but the Fall trend will be ugly. (See Whimsy & Pushing Daisies demos, 2007.)
*Disclaimer: I’m not watching a single network show on Tuesdays or Wednesdays, so I have no dog in this fight. (Odd how people haven’t soured on that phrase recently.)
Wow. You’d think ABC would have learned from 2 years ago when they had a completely new Wedneday line-up…and none of those shows survived a full second season.
I was baffled that they had no anchor (read: tried and true) show for Wednesdays. They are just going to have to hold their breath until Lost resumes.
@ Chuck from Tacoma
That doesn’t surprise me about the increased interest in Choir. Watching the Pilot made ME wish I was still in Highschool and wondering why we only had boring real choir and not show choir.
That’s interesting if this is a general trend for a little while. I didn’t get that reaction from seeing high school musical, probably because the characters and the enormity of their productions were so unrelatable, yet quite relatable in this show. Also, seeing a real highschool show choir perform in the pilot hits home that “you can do this too”.
I’m actually happy to hear that people are expecting the show to flop; it takes off some of the pressure.
I’ll check out Hank and maybe Cougar Town, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a clean sweep of cancellations at the end of the year for these new shows. I also think Glee and Gary Unmarried will see their last days. Jay Mohr = show killer. Mercy makes me nauseous and I hope it doesn’t last a month.
8:00 – I don’t think that Hank is gonna be well received – it has been totally massacred in reviews and I honestly don’t see people having an interest in Kelsey Grammer anymore. I think Dance will be at the top with Old Christine being second, then Mercy and Hank.
8:30 – I think Dance will beat the competition, but I see The Middle doing better than Gary.
9:00 and 9:30 – I feel like it’s a real toss-up. There is a lot of hype about Modern Family and Cougar Town, but there are going up against some real veterans… I can’t predict what’s gonna happen here…
@Tommy: My point is exactly what you said. High School Musical was a success in a niche market… Glee potentially will be too. It has all the drama (and more) of HSM, the fun musical numbers, and the relatability of the franchise. And if you look at numbers for the debut of the first HSM, it was not the enormous phenomenon that it eventually became. It grew by word of mouth and stretched BEYOND its niche crowd of young Disney fans. People of all ages and backgrounds love it, and I think a good number of them will enjoy the same things about Glee. I do agree, however, that it would be better as a mini-series event or a series of TV movies. Who knows, it could definitely be an epic failure.
@Julia: Bandslam is not a musical. It’s a movie about and featuring music, but it is not a musical.
Ok… Let’s do this:
8 pm
Hank – 5.0 million (1.4 demo)
The Middle 5.0 million (1.5 demo)
So You Think You Can Dance – 7 million (2.8 demo)
Mercy – 9 million (2.8 demo)
The New Adventures of Old Christine – 6.0 million (1.6 demo)
Gary Unmarried – 6 million (1.5 demo)
America’s Next Top Model – 3.5 million (1.6 demo)
9-10 pm
Modern Family – 6.5 million (1.9 demo)
Cougar Town – 6.7 million (2.0 demo)
Criminal Minds – 11 million (2.8 demo)
Law & Order:SVU – 10 million (3.2 demo)
Glee – 8 million (2.8 demo)
The Beautiful Life – 2.2 million (1.0 demo)
10-11 pm
CSI NY: 13 million (3.2 demo)
Jay Leno: 9.5 million (2.0 demo)
Eastwick: 6 million (2.0 demo)
as far as idol goes dont forget the new judges and acts should make somekind of draw since abdul departure
not sure if her departure will help or hurt idol or do nothing
we will see
Wow, Tony. You really have a lot of faith in NBC. Mercy getting 9 million? NBC would cream their pants if they got 9 million from Mercy. Too bad it isn’t going to happen.
Christine, Criminal Minds, CSI NY, The Middle, Modern Family, Cougar Town and Eastwick, with Mercy and Glee getting opportunities to be added to my viewing list.
Here’s my guess
This is how 8pm wednesdays should look.
SYTYCD – 9-12 million viewers
Mercy – 7-9 million viewers
Old Christine/Gary Unmarried – 6-7 million viewers
Hank/The Middle – 5-6 million viewers
ANTM – 3-4 million viewers
Basically 8pm is going to be all FOX. Mercy has the advantage of being the only drama so if people don’t want family comedies or dancing, Mercy could get additional episodes. While not performing amazing the CBS comedies will liekly do slightly better than ABC just because its consistent from last year. Hank is the weak spot in the schedule and will liekly bring down The Middle in ratings. These ABC comedies wont last, or if anything The Middle may get a full year. And in fifth ANTM will be the best performing show for the CW with around 4 million.
9pm should be like this
Criminal Minds – 13-14 millon viewers
Law & Order SVU – 9-11 million viewers
Glee – 7-9 million viewers
Modern Family / Cougar Town – 5-7 million viewers
The Beautiful Life 2.5 -3 million
CBS will easily win as always with Criminal Minds, however NBC’s veteran Law & Order SVU will likely build upon Mercy by a few million and should place second. Glee should hold on to a good amount of its Dance lead in maybe 60-70% but still has a disadvantage of going up against 2 veteran series. Again likely brought down by its lead in the clever comedies Cougar Town and Modern Family are not expected to do better than 7 million. Its hard for ABC when every series on a night is completely new (ABC did this in fall 2007 with Pushing Daisies/Private Practice/Dirty Sexy Money) but 4 new comedies makes it even worse. Despite likely low ratings, good reviews and high promotion will give Cougar and Modern full seasons no matter what. The comedy night will likely be down by January though. And last but not least, The Beautiful Life will get 5th and while not expected to be a hit, the series is likely to do better after ANTM then Stylista did.
10pm
CSI NY – 12-13 million viewers
Eastwick – 5-8 million viewers
Jay Leno Show – 3-4 million
10pm wednesdays looks similiar to mondays at 10, with a CSI winning the night and a new ABC series doing OK. CSI NY will dominate however Eastwick do to its likely low lead in will probably flop like every other ABC series that airs at 10pm wednesday (The Nine, Cashmere Mafia, Men in Trees, Dirty Sexy Money, Life on Mars, The Unusuals). Jay Leno should do as everyone expects it to.
Bottom line
CBS will easily win the night despite having a weak spot at 8. FOX should do well with Dance and then Glee and NBC may even surprise us with Mercy doing OK before SVU. ABC’s comedies will do horrible and expect at least 1 of those series do be axed (Hank) and 2 renewed.
Glee – Likely to get additional episodes, depsite veteran drama competition.
Mercy – Has advantage of being the only drama at 8, could get additional episodes.
Modern Family – Despite likely low ratings, highly likely to get renewed due to lack of comedies and good buzz.
Cougar Town – Despite likely low ratings, highly likely to get renewed due to lack of comedies and good buzz.
Hank – Likely to be axed by November
The Middle – ABC could go either way with this show, with Modern and Cougar likely to be renewed, ABC could try to save this too or axe it.
Eastwick – Highly likely to be axed due to low lead in ratings.
The Beautful Life – Likely to get additional episodes, (18-20) if it holds on to a lot of ANTM.
Comments, Opinions, anything………
The 9pm slot is really competitive so basically is SVU vs. CM for 1st spot and Cougar/Modern vs. Glee for 3rd spot. Veterans vs veterans and newbies vs newbies.
I would be really shocked if any of the newbies beat any of the veterans. But I do really hope
Dan: yeah Eastwick is the most dispensable one unless it pulls really good ratings. But it has an advantage though somehow because its really counter-programming for CSI NY and Jay Leno and it has a different tone compared to the previous Wednesdays 10pm occupants that flopped. Maybe there is a little hope. But it really depends hugely on Cougar Town’s performance as well
forg: My guess is that ABC is just doing a counter-programming. Modern Family and Cougar Town aim at (mostly female and some male) audiences who are not interested in procedurals (CM and SVU) or high-school musical (Glee). Variety thrashed Glee for the next two episodes thus it may shed viewers and that’s when ABC comedy block comes in and grab some of their audience. If the buzz is working, I’d say 10 million total viewers for the premier episode of both Modern Family and Cougar Town.
Forg – I think Criminal Minds will most likely win but SVU won’t be too far behind. Criminal Minds also builds considerably on its low ratd comedy duo. If Mercy somehow does well SVU will benefit. I think Glee will do better than Modern Family / Cougar Town just because its lead in SYTYCD will win 8pm and if Glee retains most of its lead in it should do OK. Glee wont beat Criminal Minds or SVU but it should hold up. MF and CT look like great comedies but will likely fall to its bad lead in. If people aren’t watching Hank and The Middle, why suddenly would people come to watch Modern Family or Cougar Town. The comedies will likely place fourth and ABC will likely axe 1 and save 2 or 3 of the comedies. The block will probably collapse by December and reduce to a 1 hour comedy block.
Bgun: I’m rooting for the ABC comedies, I hope they could really survive. I hope the buzz will translate to viewers especially for Modern Family, one of the best reviewed new show. Out of the four, Cougar Town has the best chance to do good in the ratings. I’m mainly relying on Courtney Cox’s star power, I know D!rt flopped, but that was a badly reviewed drama show on cable, this is a comedy, her element, so I’m hoping a lot of curious viewers would want to see her again on TV. The reviews are generally good. So crossing my fingers for that.
How I wished Samantha Who? survived, she would have been a good fit to this block actually. Oh well.
Dan: Criminal Minds is indeed the show to beat, it performs well against Idol so I’m sure it would do well now. Although SVU could be a threat because it performed really well on its previous 10pm slot. About the ABC sitcom block, that is what I’m really thinking but for now I chose to remain optimistic, maybe they could survive, or at least two of them.
forg – while ratings will be bad, I have a feeling I know what will happen. Hank will be the first one axed after a few airings, or at least until November. Modern Family and Cougar Town will get full season renewals no matter what. Reviews were really good, ABC needs some comedies, and every time I look theres a promotion or billboard for Modern Family and Cougar Town. That just leaves The Middle. If ABC didn’t cancel Samantha Who and still had it on mondays, they couldve put Samantha Who in the 8:00 slot. So by midseason, the comedy block would shrink to an hour, and the schedule could look like this….
Wed
8:00 Modern Family
8:30 Cougar Town
9:00 Lost
10:00 V or Flashforward
Its likely when Lost returns at 9 on wednesdays, its possible that ABC may move a compatible V or Flashforward to 10 since I don’t see Eastwick sticking around.
The Middle is 50/50. ABC could simply axe it like they will do with Hank or they could give it a vote of confidence. The problem is that they might not have a comedy to pair it with unless they order a new comedy for midseason or schedule it after Dancing.
While its always good to be optimistic, its important to be realistic and realisticly, Hank will be axed early, Modern Family and Cougar Town will be renewed and The Middle could go either way.
Dan-
Ok, dude. The way you think about stuff – and your awesome network memory – reminds me of me. Pretty sure we’d be buds if we went to college together, and even co-ran a network website. That said….I don’t agree with all of your assessment. Mostly 8P.
I just think you are maybe giving Mercy a bit more credit than it deserves. I just do not see it doing well whatsoever. For one, it’s NBC. They can promote a show on every commercial break (like they did with SouthLAnd), but if they are the least-watched channel, it is kind of a moot point – like when a bear sh!ts in the woods analogy. Granted, they kill with HH in the summer with AGT, so that’s going for them. I just don’t see that show doing well at all.
Luckily, its success isn’t crucial to SVU. That show will be fighting it out for HH with Minds the whole season, but I only see it coming in first when Minds has reruns and SVU have first-runs.
Other than that, I agree with everything you said. To sum it up though, I think HHs will go to CBS (with 2nd place: FOX taking 8P & NBC taking 9P), and 18-49s most likely FOX’s game to lose.
nkinsey – I agree with your thoughts and why you might think I’d give NBC a lot of credit (since most of there dramas the past 2 years have flopped) The only reason I think Mercy might do well is because of how not so good the other 8pm series will do. Dance should win at 8, but what other series is there to compete with. The CBS and ABC comedies are the weak spots, on other nights like Thursday at 9 ABC and CBS dominate but their wednesday comedies won’t do well at all. Hank and The Middle should dip to 4-5 million by October, Old Christine and Gary Unmarried will likely get 5-7 million. Mercy may not do amazing, but if it gets at least 7 million viewers and beats the CBS comedies, NBC will be happy. Wednesdays at 8pm last year had Bones, Knight Rider, Pushing Daisies, and Christine/Gary. That seemed like ABC, CBS, and NBC’s 4 weakest series and Bones. Bones did very well but the rest didn’t do that great, but there was a variety. This year there’s SYTYCD, Gary/Christine, Hank/Middle, and Mercy and all of these shows lead of the night and aren’t retaining any viewers. Its possible just because Mercy is the sole drama at 8 that it could do OK.
The only thing I’m sure of is that at 8pm FOX will take first and ABC will come in fourth. CBS comedies could do better than Mercy but only time will tell.
Dan-
I totally understand your thinking on this, but just because the other networks might not have a lot of viewers does not mean by default NBC gets them. With so many families having to have both parents working full time, an 8P Wednesday void might be JUST what they need to keep up with their scrap-booking.
I think Mercy will pull a SouthLAnd in viewership. It’ll start relatively well (NBC will call it a “hit” no matter what. Hell, they called The Listener a hit), then start bleeding viewers in following week. I see Mercy settling into 4-5 million viewers. FOX will ultimately claim 18-49.
I agree, Mercy could start out well but then dwindle in viewers gradually, At least we know one thing. If Mercy does flop, NBC has a new midseason drama, Parenthood waiting to take its place. Originally Parenthood was supposed to air 8pm wednesday but because of one of the star’s illness they had to switch it with Mercy and have 2 medical series for the fall. NBC calls anything a hit. They called Kath & Kim the new hit comedy, My Own Worst Enemy their new hit drama, Knight Rider tvs most popular new drama. Yet all those series eventually died because of low ratings. What I do think would happen is that with only 3 new series, and such a smaller schedule, I don’t think NBC would be quick to axe anything. While Community is a shoo in for renewal, NBC will likely wait until November or December to decide on the Trauma/Mercy fate. Both series can easily be replaced at midseason yet NBC may likely give one of them more episodes (likely Trauma).
Dan-
I was JUST going to say that of the two, Trauma would probably be given the extra ep order.
I actually think for Parenthood’s sake, midseason seems a better fit for them. I almost think the show would have been lost in the shuffle in the fall. For one, they give it more time to hype it up. NBC is beautiful at creating hype for a show where the hype never turns into ratings success. Also, they can not only look at their schedule for a last minute adjustment, but look at other networks’ weak spots and place accordingly.
And as you were saying, look at those shows with all the hype from last season. You said that “those series eventually died because of low ratings”. I’ll take it one further: Those series died either at or before finishing ONE full season.
Even look at The Bionic Woman. Holy cats, was there a lot of hype for that! And how long did that show last?
Exactly.
FOX should be hugely worried with Dance at 8pm. Airing another cycle of Hell’s Kitchen in its place could easily do 7 million and a 3.0 demo, which would also be more of a benefit to Glee. Glee at 9pm could actually win the demo in the hour, taking away from Modern Family/Cougar Town (which were looking to be demo hits, but now not so sure) and of course the younger crime audience on CBS and NBC.
I’m expecting Old Christine to have a slightly better season this year. It should be able to do 8 million more often this season, considering its repeat numbers haven’t been too far off from HIMYM’s repeat numbers at 8pm. Still, it’s demo will be far lower, which is where Hank will compete. GU should see no increase at all, as the OC audience will likely tune into The Middle more than they would GU.
Speaking of Parenthood, Maura Tierney dropped out of the show already because of cancer treatments
http://blog.zap2it.com/frominsidethebox/2009/09/maura-tierney-quits-parenthood-for-cancer-treatments.html
They will probably air Parenthood next year I guess.
forg – I actually didn’t know that, it must have been recent. Despite her dropping out of the show, OParenthood will likely premiere at 8:00 wednesday by March, or possibly earlier if Mercy tanks.
nkinsey – Yeah, hype doesn’t always work, but timeslot and competition usually determines a lot. NBC will keep anything if the ratings are decent enough or if it has critical acclaim. The only dramas NBC has left from the past few seasons are the two oldest Law & Orders, Heroes, Chuck, the relatively new Southland, and L&O CI and Friday Night Lights (both of which are technically series of USA and DirecTV respectively) I also agree Trauma will likely get additional episodes over Mercy. Hopefully Trauma can take Two and a Half Men/The Big Bang Theory, Lie to Me, and Dancing. Dancing will get first, then Men/Theory in second, but if Lie to Me retains a lot of House it will probably beat Trauma. However NBC will probably stick with it until Heroes is over and Day One and Chuck begin. I think its better that Parenthood premieres midseason so it can get a fresh start, even though Idol will crush it. I think its good that NBC premiered both its “ER” replacements so they can likely renew one and axe the other.