The 9pm battle on Thursday conjures up images of aging TV battleships lining up for combat. Most are past their prime and a bit rusty, but they’re still among the strongest shows afloat for their networks.
The Line Up: CSI is 9 years old, but was #2 in the adults 18-49 demo for CBS last season, Grey’s Anatomy (4.5 years old, #2 18-49 demo for ABC), The Office (4.5 years old, #1 non-sports 18-49 demo for NBC), Supernatural (4 years old, #2 scripted 18-49 demo for CW). Only sophomore Fringe is a youngster, but it was still Fox’s #3 scripted show in the 18-49 demo last season.
The rest of the night is packed with top performers too. Survivor, 30 Rock, Bones, Private Practice and The Mentalist are all among the strongest shows for each of their networks.
Below are the hourly lineups, including each shows 18-49 demo rating average (which includes in-slot repeats) from the 2008-9 season as well as my guesses for the fall nightly overall results.
If you enjoyed the Thursday’s look ahead for the new season, check out Wednesday’s and Tuesday’s.
8:00
FlashForward (ABC), New
Survivor: Samoa (CBS), 4.2 18-49 demo rating for Gabon last fall
Vampire Diaries(CW), New
Bones (Fox), 2.9 demo rating (includes both Wed/Thurs airings last season)
SNL: Weekend Update (NBC), ? ; till Oct. 15 then Community
8:30
Parks & Recreation (NBC), 2.4 demo rating
9:00
Grey’s Anatomy (ABC), 4.8 demo rating
CSI (CBS) 4.5 demo rating
Supernatural (CW) 1.2 demo rating
Fringe (Fox), 3.6 demo rating (Tuesday last season)
The Office (NBC), 4.0 demo rating
9:30
Community (NBC), New; till Oct. 15 then 30 Rock, 3.2 demo rating
10:00
Private Practice (ABC), 2.9 demo rating (includes both Wed/Thurs airings last season)
The Mentalist (CBS), 3.5 demo rating (Tuesday last season)
The Jay Leno Show (NBC), New, Fall 2009 Tonight Show averaged about a 1.4-1.5 demo rating
My Guess
CBS will go from competitive to dominant on Thursday with the addition of The Mentalist to their line up. CSI has definitely seen better days, and the show finished last season on a slide, but that line up is not going to be beaten in the demo this fall. Thursday’s either going to be ABC’s strongest or second strongest night of the season, Grey’s Anatomy and Private Practice should again do well together, and FlashForward has only Ugly Betty’s timeslot track record to beat to possibly put ABC well up on the night vs. last season.
Fox is not going to contend for the nightly demo crown, but they’ll do much better than last season’s fall which featured Moment of Truth and Kitchen Nightmares. NBC is looking at a substantial ratings drop on the night vs. last season. Of course replacing ER with Leno is a ratings loser, but so probably is replacing My Name is Earl (which was above average for NBC) with SNL/Community and Parks and Recreation which was on a down slope as it finished the season, finishing well below it’s 2.4 rating average. Thursday’s are also the one night where the CW looks to do noticeably worse than last season. I don’t care what the buzz over vampire shows is today, I can’t see Vampire Diaries coming anywhere close to Smallville’s numbers.
Note: I make all my guesses completely unburdened by having read any reviews of any of the new shows, having seen any of the pilots, or knowing any more than the most casual details of their subject matter. Does that make mine better or worse than the typical TV writer which focuses almost solely on those? Your mileage may vary.
Fox caveat: Regardless of their other shows, the outcome of the major league baseball playoffs can make or break Fox’s fall averages. If they get long series with good matchups their overall season averages benefit tremendously. If they get short series with bad matchups, they’ll suffer.
I’m guessing GA will take a hit without Ellen Pompeo and Katherine Heigl. Without a huge lead-in, Fringe probably won’t make any improvements. I’m guessing CSI will split but still win.
I just made a comment on Thursdays but i’ll repeat myself.
While Fringe will suffer competition, I do believe it will hold on to most of Bones lead in. At first glance it may have been smarter to stick Fringe at 8 where theres not much competition, (Survivor, Flashforward, Community, Parks, Vampire Diaries) However Bones is more liekly to dominate there and likely come in second after Survivor, and maybe Flashforward will surprise us.
Heres a thought for Thursdays
8pm
Survivor – 13-14 million
Bones – 10 million
Flashforward – 8-10 (or maybe surprise hit?)
Community/Parks – 6-7 million
Vampire Diaries – 2-3 million
Its hard to be 100% about Thursday but the only certain thing is that Survivor will win, Bones will do fine and Community and Parks will do OK. Flashforward is hard to determine because it will either be a surprise hit or another flop. Vampire Diaries won’t be Smallville but should fit in with Supernatural.
9pm
CSI – 18-22 million
Grey’s Anatomy 14-16 million
Fringe – 7-9 million
The Office/30 Rock – 7-9 million
Supernatural – 3-4 million
While it will not beat CSI and Grey’s, its hard to determine if Fringe will come in 3rd or 4th. if it holds on to most of Bones it will likely beat NBC’s Office/30 Rock combo yet that combo has done better last year. Hell’s Kitchen got around 7 million after Bones on thursdays but a compatible drama would likely do better. My best guess is that The Office and 30 Rock will get 9 and 7 million on average respectively while Fringe could go from 8-7 million. Only time will tell but I hope the best for Fringe this year. FOX has an advantage of keeping Bones and Fringe in the same slots for the whole year unlike last year.
10pm
The Mentalist – 18-20 million
Private Practice – 14 million viewers
Jay Leno Show – 3-5 million
10pm is easy The Mentalist should do amazing and retain most of its CSI while Private Practice will hold on to most of Grey’s. 10pm is never about competition (since Mentalist will obviously beat Practice) its about how much of the 9pm show’s audience the 10pm show can hold on to. In this case both 10pm shows are easily compativle with their respective 9pm shows.
Bottom line: CBS should win the night with survivor and crime dramas, ABC should come in second with their SCI-fi Flashforward and medical dramas, FOX should come in third with their dramas, and NBC should come in fourth with their comedies.
Flashforward – Likely to get a full season, ABC’s big drama this season. Maybe eventually be paired with Lost.
Community – Highly likely to get a full season despite likely low ratings.
Vampire Diaries – Likely to get a full year along the compatible Supernatural.
Nightly up/down vs. previous year is an easy scorecard, but not too useful in judging the aggregate. For the CW, with limited real estate to work with, if Supernatural can tread water and Vampire Diaries is a net add for the whole week in terms of W18-34 (and offsets any Friday move/long-in-tooth decreases with Smallville) the CW can (and absolutely will) declare virtual victory.
The CW has the simplest report card of all “is W18-34 up this year over last year, even just for the Monday-Friday?”
Supernatural is getting a better timeslot, but there’s some crossover with Fringe and Supernatural that will have DVRs working hard. Programming my own schedule I think I’d be more prone to watching Flash Forward at 8p and Fringe at 9p on Thursday nights, and catching Supernatural, Survivor, and The Office on DVR. It will be interesting to see whether Supernatural’s overall Live+7 #s are stable year/year even if the Live+SD take a hit.
I don’t know Bill, those tween girls are mad for anything with a vampire in it these days. None of the other shows at 8pm are really marketed at that teen female audience either, so I could see Vampire Diaries actually doing better than Smallville in the long run.
I really wish Supernatural and Fringe weren’t competing against one another. I think the could share similar audiences. I believe both shows will be fine though. I think those who watch Supernatural will continue to do so and record Fringe. Given the CW doesn’t get stellar ratings to begin with I don’t think it’ll hurt Fringe.
I think Fringe is going to surprise some people. It wasn’t always well considered early in it’s first season run, but ended with pretty decent hype–if the writers do their jobs, it’ll build on that. Besides, CSI is getting flat out long in the tooth at 9 seasons, and I’m guessing that zeitgeist has passed. And Grey’s is suffering cast attrition that’ll probably translate into viewer attrition (The ER effect) heading into next season.
I don’t know if Fox did the right move, they’ve put Fringe against the biggest competition you can get. Do they want the show to survive until season 3? Or will they be merciful. Because fringe is probably gonna finish 3rd or fourth, even if it could get a 3.9 demo like it did behind AI
I guess I’ll have to do like robert, FF at 8p, fringe at 9p and probably listen to supernatural repeat at 11p
How did Moment of Truth and Kitchen Nightmares performed last season on this schedule?
I can’t wait for The Mentalist to return. It was MY FAVORITE show last season. It worked so well out of NCIS, but I’m sure it will do well out of CSI too (another long-time fav of mine).
I just can’t wait for this season to get started! Hurry up Sept. 21! (Well TONIGHT for Supernatural!
)
Does anybody knows if Fringe is still gonna be remote free tv? Or something like that…
Samuel – FOX has had a hard time thursdays. They’ve tried Til Death/ Happy Hour/ The O.C. from 06-07 which failed, then did very well with Fifth Grader and Lyrics from 07-08, then did bad again with Kitchen Nightmares and Hole in the Wall. Then finally they smartly moved Bones to thursdays before Hell’s Kitchen and now they have a compatible 2 hours with Bones and Fringe. Unlike Dollhouse, FOX counts on Fringe to survive into season 3 along with Lie to Me. Which is why they’ve scheduled both series after veteran dramas House and Bones to help the sophomore series. FOX has had trouble with dramas in recent years so it wouldnt surprise me that they would do anything to save Fringe and Lie to Me.
Again, Fringe will come in third to CSI and Grey’s and sometimes fourth behind The Office/30 Rock but if Fringe holds on to most of Bones it will do fine for the night.
I don’t think putting Fringe Thursdays at 9 is about finishing first so much as it’s about besting their past demos–which it probably will. That said, for those who say network television is dead, they might be right the other 23 hours of the week, but it certainly seems to be a flat out super-heavyweight division Thursdays at 9 this fall. I wonder if this ‘muscle against muscle’ strategy on the network’s part is an effort to collectively bring back aggregate viewers.
After Grey’s resurged after a poor start and CSI dipped with Laurence Fishburne, I am unsure how either show will do. If The Mentalist starts building on or even beats CSI in ratings then we could a time slot flip as early as midseason, I imagine this season is a last chance for CSI to prove it should stay in the plum 9pm slot.
I think Vampire Diaries will do well but the 8pm slot is very competitive with all scripted shows with the exception of Survivor which is still going strong.
–sorta like branding the notion of valid network programming itself
Samuel, “Remote Free” is gone this year. Both for FRINGE and DOLLHOUSE.
So at 9:00 we have 4 shows ranging from a 3.6 to a 4.8 demo rating. Those are some serious horses.
Clearly someone is going to be the winner and someone (I fear the Office) will be the loser. How far can these shows sink before the networks gets concerned? If the office drops to 3.6 for example, that’s still pretty good for NBC, right? (unless you consider it is their #1 show) If Grey’s Anatomy sinks to a 4.0 does ABC start to worry?
Or can they all keep these high numbers?
I thought “Grey’s Anatomy” was ABC’s #1 Demo show? What am i missing here? Or was it “Desperate Housewives”?
Anyway, i know ABC has a long term plan for both series as they have inked “Desperate Housewives” through 2013 and are trying to find ways to eventually keep “Grey’s Anatomy” going even long passed the core cast is gone. But i honestly think that is not going to work. From Season One, the show has always been character driven rather than plot driven like how “ER” was. Heck, the show is named after a character. The loss of the original cast is definitely going to start having an effect on the ratings. T.R Knight is gone and we can’t seem to blink without hearing about the latest Katherine Heigl bitch fest. ABC seems to let her run a muck because they are willing to do anything to keep her there, as she is the only breakout star from the series. But ABC needs to face it, Heigl wants off, and it’s going to happen soon. Either shut her up and give her a ridiculously bigger pay raise or just let her go, because her antics are starting to affect the quality of the show. How Izzie went from having a deadly point-of-no-return brain tumor to a suddenly being cured based off of Heigls 11th hour decision to stay put was the most ridiculous plot line i’ve seen on a tv series in years. It cheapens the tv series so much. Anyway, enough with my Grey’s rant, but ABC needs to realize that they need to find a new series to depend on because the internal conflicts with Grey’s Anatomy, both on screen and behind the screen is going to self destruct the series.
The end.
I think that the wheels are off of CSI, and I think that CBS will flip it and The Mentalist mid-season. Towards the end of last season, CSI was dipping into the 13 millions and a 3 in the demo, highly out rated by The Mentalist on Tuesday. I do think that GA will see similar ratings to last season, even without Pompeo and Heigel.
Here are my two big question marks for the night:
1. Flashforward: How will this do? UB set the bar fairly low (last fall, it was around 8 million and mid-2s in demos), so anything above that could pump numbers for ABC. If it manages more than 10 million, ABC’s going to be trumpeting it as the future of the network.
2. The Mentalist: Will it carry over those 20 million viewers? NCIS outrates CSI as a lead-in at this point. If this show can carry those 20 million, it’s going to 9pm, guaranteed.
Other thoughts: Survivor will continue slow erosion (down to 11 to 12 million), which could open the door for FF. NBC will have huge problems at 8pm. Will The Office move up to 8pm to slow the bleeding? Instead of trying out two untested series at 8pm, this makes much more sense.
SUPERNATURAL BABY!!!!!
Sam – ABC definitely needs to find a new drama. There recently renewed dramas from the past 2 seasons are just Private Practice and Castle. They are trying to grow both series by airing them after high rated series (DWTS and Grey’s). After a series of flops the past 2 years, ABC is also trying there luck with Flashforward. After Lost ends, ABC will have only the dramas Desperate Housewives, Grey’s Anatomy, Brothers & Sisters, Ugly Betty, Private Practice, and Castle, all of which I believe will return in 10-11. Hopefully this year ABC can find strong dramas.
Zeker – In the case of Fringe, FOX wants the series to succeed. For them its not about beating the competition its about bringing life to thursdays and taking advantage of the dwindling CSI and Grey’s. However the 5 networks to all 6 series airing from 9-10 thursdays will likely not be concerned. For CBS, ABC, and The CW the dramas CSI, Greys, and Supernatural are reliable veterans. Also NBC will accept whatever numbers The Office and 30 Rock bring and FOX will likely be content with Fringe. In terms of who will come in 3rd and 4th bewteen FOX and NBC my guess is that Fringe and Office/30 Rock will get similiar numbers but Fringe will perform slightly better. The lead in also can determine a lot for FOX and NBC so Bones is definitely a better lead in then Community/Parks.
Sam, last season Desperate Housewives had the higher 18-49 demo average 5.2 (vs. 4.8 for GA), but since that average includes in-slot repeats, the number of repeats aired can substantially effect the average. GA may have had the higher demo average for original episodes. Nielsen doesn’t provide those averages, and I’m to lazy to compute them myself for last season. However, for this season, I will be tracking them from the start.
Dan’s point bears repeating. We write a lot about who “won” and “lost” because its interesting and enjoyable, but it really has meaning only for PR or boasting purposes. What all the networks want is the best ratings possible, because that leads to the most advertising revenue. If Fox goes from a 2.0 demo rating on Thursday’s to a 3.5 demo rating, that’s a real increase in revenue potential. Whether they finish #2 or #3 or #4 is only good for press releases, and ratings sites like ours.
My poor dvr needs to be able to record 4 shows at once on Thursdays I think, Thank God for Hulu I guess.\
I hope flash forward does well, I am definitely looking forward to watching it. This is going to be one heck of a ratings war however, it will be interesting to see how it pans out.
My predictions:
8-9pm:
Survivor – 13 million (3.7 demo)
FlashForward – 11 million (3.3 demo)
Bones – 10 million (2.8 demo)
SNL – 5 million (2.0 demo)/ Community – 5.5 million (2.2 demo)
Parks and Recreation – 5 million (2.1 demo)
Vampire Diaries – 2 million (1.0 demo)
* Survivor might go down but will still be the winner unless FlashForward will really be a huge hit (I predict it will start strong but will go down and stabilize and Survivor will win again)
9-10pm
Greys Anatomy – 15 million (4.7 demo)
CSI – 18 million (4.5 demo)
The Office – 9 million (4.0 demo)
Community – 6 million (2.5 demo) / 30 Rock – 7 million (3.3 demo)
Fringe – 7.5 million (2.9 demo)
Supernatural – 2.5 million (1.2 demo)
10-11 pm
The Mentalist – 17 million (3.6 demo)
Private Practice – 10 million (2.8 demo)
Jay Leno – 5 million (1.7 demo)
8:00 Survivor will win. Flash Forward in second and may build to #1 if anything close to the buzz.
9:00 Grey’s has it’s mojo back. The cast absences will be virtually unnoticed due to Pompeo’s and Heigl’s doubled up production scheduling. Will win demo and likely beat CSI in total numbers once again. The Office and 30 Rock will have their niche, but will not be serious competition.
10:00 Mentalist audience will be asleep. Private Practice, ever improved, will win demo and possibly total viewers. Nothing against Jay Leno, but this programming is not ready for primetime.
This night doesn’t look too bad at all for me personally.
I’ll give Flash Forward a try (and watch Survivor if it doesn’t pan out) and then Fringe at 9:00. That leaves 10:00 the perfect time to log onto TVBN.
As for the overall ratings,
I wonder if Grey’s will take a greater hit than some are bargaining for when Heigl leaves for 5 episodes and Pompeo departs for her maternity leave.
On the other side, CSI sees the return of Jorja Fox as a regular and I’ve heard rumors that William Petersen will return for at least a handful of episodes. Might the return of those actors cause any renewed interest in CSI?
Doug – Flashforward could surprise everyone and become a hit or it could just get around 8-10 million. Better than Ugly Betty but modest enough to tie with Bones. NBC seems to have a problem at 8 with two newcomers leading off the night. NBC is doing a smart thing by airing Community after The Office but the series will likely sink even more when ts moved back to 8. NBC should do this.
Put veteran 30 Rock to lead the night off at 8 followed by Parks then The Office at 9 and then Community. That way Community could get good numbers after The Office and 30 Rock could help out Parks and Recreation.
I hope we could see shows again that will reach 20+ million viewers just like the first battle of Greys and CSI.
IF I HAVENT SAW MELROSE PLACE’S RATINGS I’D SAY THAT TVD COULD REACH 5 MILLION VIEWES BUT NOW…WHO KNOWS???
FOR ME THURSDAY NIGHT HAS THE MOST SHOWS THAT I WATCH!!
GREYS ANATOMY
PRIVATE PRACTICE
SUPERNATURAL
30 ROCK
THE VAMPIRE DIARIES
MAYBE FLASH FORWARD.I LL GIVE IT A SPOT!!
There is no worry for me, Fringe is the only one of those 9:00 shows that I like. I never jumped on the Grey’s or Office bandwagons, and CSI has been on FOREVER (said in a way that reminds me of The Sandlot). As for 8:00 I’ll Watch Flash Forward and record Bones, also record Mentalist as I go to bed at 10:00.
All of you are seriously underestimating Survivor. Flash Forward at best would have Lost numbers, and even those are not enough to beat Survivors total viewers numbers.
According to some reports this season of Survivor is a lot better in terms of interesting contestants and brake-out characters (especially one who’s suppose to be even bigger than coach) than the last two seasons. And with All-Stars 2 just around the corner, general interest in Survivor will go up as season progresses.
What is the most watched night of television?
Has it been traditionally thursday?
Anyone by chance have the numbers?
For some reason, I think this night is really, really hard to predict even though most of the shows have long track records. There are just so many “what-if” scenarios and strange trends that were showing up at the tail end of last season regarding some of these heavy hitting shows.
I’ll watch Supernatural live, DVR Fringe and CSI on demand. At 8:00 is Bones live and Flashforward on DVR. I think all shows will take a hit in the ratings.
I love the Picture.
Big Daddy – Television rating history shows that Thursday is the highest rated night. This seems why so many high rated series air that night. Thursday is hard to predict because there are only 2 new series (1 of which is part of a comedy block and the other is at
There is no new series at 9 thursdays just veteran series competiting against each other. And when its hard to find a weak point thats where you cant figure out how a certain show will do. CSI will do better than Grey’s however competing for third is Fringe against Office/30 Rock.
I’m screwed.
How am I going to record Grey’s Anatomy, the Office, and Fringe all at the same time, with only 1 dual tuner DVR?
Lots of options for Thursday night.
I’m personally torn, since I really want Supernatural to retain that solid lead-in it got from Smallville, but I’m sick to death of all things emo-vampire, and so I can’t find force myself to root for The Vampire Diaries at all.
I’m also looking forward to Flash Forward, and Community. The latter might be the most promising comedy of the last few years.
Thursday night. SUPERNATURAL.
I hope Community will be a hit as well. I saw the pilot and its very promising. It has more mainstream appeal than The Office and 30 Rock so hopefully the show could attract good amount of viewers
Like George 11, if I haven’t seen the numbers for Melrose Place, I would have thought that Vampire Diaries could pull in 3 million viewers the lowerst but now I’m setting my expectations even lower that’s why I guessed it that it would only pull 2 million viewers
Well considering in the adults 18-34 demo Smallville (for originals) was the CW fourth ranked show (I am like the CW using not the official season but just comparing all original episodes) with One Tree Hill, Gossip Girls and even 90210 besting it. Vampire Diaries certainly could beat Smallville in the adult 18-34 (let alone in the female 18-34).
Dan-
Ok, you and I are eye-to-eye on Thursday. I agree completely.
And I’ve said this before, this 4Q (aka fall season) is all about market-share for FOX. If they get more market-share than last year’s fall, it will be a success for FOX.
And I think the only program that might lose some audience to Fringe is Supernatural. Grey’s & CSI won’t notice a hit (maybe a PINCH of 18-49, but doubtful). However, with Supernatural being on CW, as long as they don’t get hit TOO hard, CW will be fine with it. The Wise & Brilliant Dawn (read: sarcasm) has said she loves the show – and it would be stupid to get rid of their #2 scripted show – so it’ll be safe regardless.
However, it’s all a moot point. I’ve seen mynetworktv’s fall line-up, and I think they’ll easily steal 10 million viewers from the other 5 networks on Thursdays…
I think Fringe will wind up fourth. It’s the least established, and no longer has that extremely cushy post-Idol slot. And you know, “sophomore slump” and all that. But it should still do okay.
But when you look at it this way, too, Fringe for Fox isn’t as big as The Office/30 Rock are for NBC, Grey’s Anatomy is for ABC, and CSI for CBS. Those are all flagship shows for their respective stations, whereas Fox has bigger series (ie House).
Correction. The Office is a flagship show. 30 Rock is not. It’s an awards grabber, which gives NBC SOMETHING to brag about in their bleak network performance.
Mumbo – Fringe can get fourth lets say if Office/30 Rock gets maybe 8-9 and Fringe gets 7-8. As long as it holds most of its Bones lead in and does well in the demo, FOX will be content. NBC will be content with anything nowadays and ABC and CBS will be happy with there respective Flash/Greys/Practice and Survivor/CSI/Mentalist combos. Each network has different combos for thursday and each is expecting different things.
nkinsey -The only thing is that with so many shows on the Top 4 networks getting good ratings for 9pm thursdays Supernatural may take a big hit, and with no Smallville lead in, the series may definitely suffer. Not that ratings or anything will hurt Supernaturals chances for renewal. Ironically, the creators want it to end after this season but The CW is willing to give it a season 6.
Bottom line, I don’t see any series on Thursdays in danger of cancellation anytime soon. Maybe 1 or 2 axed by May (Parks, maybe Flashforward). Also It’s highly likely that Thursdays will look the same from now until May. CBS never changes it anyway (except in January at 8 between the 2 survivor seasons but thats expected), FOX is willing to leave Bones and Fringe in their current slots until the end of the season, unless ABC decides to move Flashforward, Thursdays for them are going to look the same, and NBC and The CW plans on having their same 2 hour comedy block, and 2 hour horror block respectively.
This stupid Thursday ratings battle just increased my cable bill by $10 a month! Got myself a second DVR coming…
Now… which shows to record in the bedroom… probably woman junk for the gf like Grey’s and Vampire Diaries!
Fringe is without a doubt a living room show, and … /sigh… as much as i want to hate the show, i’ll probably end up watching and loving Flash Forward as well. in the living room.
Since I’ll be watching CBS all night this is not a problem for me but these programming choices are nuts. You take your good shows or your shows with the most loyal fans and instead of finding a weak time slot or a demographically different time slot in relation to the others you basically mess with the minds of your viewers. It takes a lot of work to program shows at the same time that make individuals miss THREE of their favorites. At least at 9 (Eastern) the genres are somewhat different, but that implies that people only watch one kind of show which is nonsense.
CSI is smart by bringing Sara back for those initial shows. Now if only they could talk Peterson into returning for some shows…
I thought Thursday night was going to be a tough one when the networks started changing their lineups. It is busy. I’ve personally settle on:
DVR FlashForward and watch Bones at 7:00
Watch Supernatural at 8:00
DVR Community at 8:30.
I think I’ll catch up with Fringe and the Mentalist on DVD when they are released or in reruns.
Lizard
nkinsey, I didn’t call 30 Rock a flagship, but it was NBC’s #4 scripted show (that’s returning from last season) in the 18-49 demo.
Catherine, Thursday is advertisers’ favorite day of the week, particularly for movies, since most of the new ones open on Friday. So networks put their best performers there to get the most money they possibly can out of advertisers desperate to get people’s attention before the weekend.
Bill – I think in that case 30 Rock is good enough to lead off their comedy night. So what NBC should do when the SNL thursday updates are finished is leave Community in the 9:30 slot so it can grow after The Office and at the same time premiere 30 Rock at 8 so at least an established series can lead off the night.
Sorry if I write this here, but the page for yesterday’s ratings didn’t load correctly to me. I cannot see the comments. I’m using IE8.
I tried with safari and it loaded correctly. Can someone help me?
I don’t think they should bring back William Peterson because it would be a sign of defeat that CSI was unable to adapt with a new leading man. The show did suffer this season trying to establish Laurence Fishburne as the leader plus outside problems with the personal lives of the other cast members, I think this season of CSI should be good but I fear the damage has been done to the ratings.
It’s clear that CBS is grooming The Mentalist as a successor to CSI.
Jon – Just like CBS is airing The Big Bang Theory after Two and a Half Men to become a hit, CBS is airing The Mentalist after CSI to grow its ratings. The Mentalist will easily do better than Harper’s Island or Eleventh Hour and Big Bang will do better than Worst Week or Rules of Engagement. CBS seems to have Monday, Thursday, Friday all covered, they have a weak spot wednesday but theyre trying to grow the two comedies, and NCIS and NCIS: LA should be unstoppable, as long as The Good Wife can hold on to most of NCIS: LA (as much as Without a Trace). CBS may have a problem sundays with the eroding veteran Cold Case and newcomer Three Rivers. Rivers may not hold up so well at 9, which will bring Cold Case down. Rivers will likely be axed after four airings. (I’m sticking with it being pulled after October 25, maybe October 18, but definitely no sooner.
Hopefully,Supernatural will get higher ratings tonight with no new competition. It’s going to get killed after this.
Anonymous: indeed some bad code did sneak into the Wednesday overnight report preventing the display of comments in IE. Unfortunate that I didn’t catch it sooner, but it should be fixed now.
Bill-
I was actually going off of Mumbo #5’s (sorry, I couldn’t help it) comment about 30 Rock. I think if anything, the L&O franchise would be NBC’s flagship show, then The Office (or maybe Biggest Loser). It wasn’t really until this last season that 30 Rock really started to get some solid ratings.
Meanwhile, you can tell that NBC REALLY wants Heroes to be a flagship show, but the ratings show that is probably not going to happen.
Dan-
I think 30 Rock at 8P would hurt them. For Community’s sake, I would LOVE that, and God knows it would help Parks out.
Also, I think quality aside, Parks really hurt themselves by hiring Rashida Jones; thereby making a cross-over ep with Office unlikely. With Parks potentially crapping out, they could have done the show a favor by having some Office characters show up in an ep (no clue how that’d work, story-line wise). With Rashida having played Karen, unless she’s not in the scene, they couldn’t do it. Or they’d have to do it like a cameo (which would probably piss Office fans off, ruining the chances Office fans would come back to Parks).
Wasn’t Thursday, at least in the ’80s and maybe into the ’90s the most watched night of television? I remember when they were doing Knots vs. Dallas ratings comparisons and in Knots defense they would say they’re on a bigger night against bigger competition where Dallas had very little competition on Friday nights. Or something like that.
FlashForward FTW!!!
Also, I think quality aside, Parks really hurt themselves by hiring Rashida Jones; thereby making a cross-over ep with Office unlikely. With Parks potentially crapping out, they could have done the show a favor by having some Office characters show up in an ep (no clue how that’d work, story-line wise). With Rashida having played Karen, unless she’s not in the scene, they couldn’t do it. Or they’d have to do it like a cameo (which would probably piss Office fans off, ruining the chances Office fans would come back to Parks).
Twin sister, duh! Seriously, they could play it as two different characters and either completely ignore that it’s the same actress or make it some sort of inside joke. “Have you ever been to Scranton? You look really familiar.” That’s if they ever wanted to do a cross-over at all.
ABC: Clearly up in total numbers for the night; don’t see Fringe eating into Grey’s numbers much. Whether ABC will make any money with the, what, 3.0ish ratings Flashforward gets after the first two months remains to be seen.
CW: VD (come on, even the initials stink) will do worse than Smallville, but better with women, and Thur+Fri in total will be better than last year for CW.
CBS: CSI continues to slide, Mentalist does not do as well in live demos as last year. Still expecting CBS to swap the two shows – but while a normal network would do it in December, CBS may not do it until next year.
NBC: Office is down slightly in live numbers; makes it back in DVR & Hulu. Community is a hit (2008’s 30 Rock numbers), but Parks not given much of a second chance and disappears come Olympics (at latest).
Julia-
haha. Now why didn’t I think of the twin sister angle?! Stupid nkinsey!!
I just don’t think that would work though. This isn’t a Robert Rodriguez or Kevin Smith movie. The show thrives on being a “real world” format, so encountering the same actress might not work in the Office world.
And I am HIGHLY convinced NBC would want a cross-over. Not only do they want Parks to succeed (NBC does love that Poehler lady), but they need a strong(er) Thursday. Hell, NBC wanted a Office SPIN-OFF; so I think it’s VERY likely they will push for a cross-over – that is, if they decide they want to keep it.
I don’t doubt that NBC would want the cross over, but I doubt that Greg Daniels would get behind it from a creative standpoint. I don’t see any way to make it organic, since they didn’t go with the spin-off like they planned to.
Though I do think Dwight and Leslie dating would at the very least be great fun.
I will be watching Flashforward for a while at least. And then switch over to The Office and watch that and probably whatever NBC puts on after that which for now looks to be community.
I used to watch 30 Rock but if they are going to pair it with the dreadful Parks and Rec then so long 30 Rock. I may watch 30 Rock later on hulu or just skip it – it took a nosedive in the last half dozen episodes last season anyway.
I don’t see anything good on in the final hour of the evening.
Ratings-wise I expect Survivor, The Office, CSI, Grey’s and Mentalist to do well. CW’s shows I predict to get crushed and Fringe will struggle, doing just barely enough to survive. NBC’s 8pm eastern hour will probably not do well and it wouldn’t shock me if later in the season they move 30 Rock back to Community’s spot to save it.
I ignored SNL because that is just for a few weeks and won’t be on for much of the season, unless I’m misunderstanding it.
Vetinari, you are correct, there are only 3 scheduled SNL shows on Thursday, 30 Rock starts on 10/15 and Community takes SNL’s timeslot beginning on that date.
Thursdays is the most difficult night to call. I think it will be split: CBS taking viewers, ABC the demo.
8:00 Survivor will win, but FlashForward will be close, at least to start. I’d give 3rd to Bones. Parks will continue to crash and burn. SNL Thursdays will do worse than last year without the election looming. Community will probably do well, but will, of course, drop significantly after its post-Office launch
9:00 CSI will win in viewers, Grey’s in the demo. The CSI and the Office will be close in the demo again. Fringe will take a major hit due to the move, smaller lead-in, and increased competition. It will probably come in 4th, but FOX will be OK with that.
10:00 The Mentalist will easily take the hour. Practice will remain one of ABC’s strongest 10 pm shows.
Holly-
You bring up a great point. I keep saying that them bring back the Weekend Update Thursdays COMPLETELY misses the point of what made it work last season: The upcoming election, the presidential debates, & Tina Palin. That made it topical and watercooler worthy.
So what is the point of having it this season (other than killing time for 30 Rock, and giving Community a nice position before it’s banished to 8P once 30 Rock comes back)?
So what is the point of having it this season (other than killing time for 30 Rock, and giving Community a nice position before it’s banished to 8P once 30 Rock comes back)?
That is precisely the point. They know Parks has no audience. They can’t have it lead the hour and they know if they just start out with Community at 8 and Parks at 8:30 no one will bother tuning in. By launching Community out of The Office they can give it a chance to succeed. Of course, they can’t keep it there because they won’t risk 30 Rock’s numbers by moving it.
On thursday I will be watching Live:
Vampire Diaries
Grey’s Anatomy
Private Practice
And I will be recording:
Flashforward
Parks and Recreation
Supernatural
The Office
Community
and 30 Rock!
I’m just saying that I don’t think Weekend Update will help out Parks as much as they think it will.
While I’m sure they hope that it will help Parks somewhat, I think it’s more that they are hoping to give Community a good premiere, and hope that it can retain its audience once moved. And then that could help Parks.
^What she said.
SNL is just filler so Community can have a better chance.
i love supernatural.I hope its not the last year for them.
Oh, Supernatural, I have missed you so. Even if I can’t quite recall where you left off.
I’d be surprised if The Mentalist didn’t come out of next season as CBS’ top-rated show. It should be hitting close to 20 million every week, considering it was close to that around November/December of last year in a slot with tougher competition. Private Practice and Leno should also be able to do well, too.
CSI should be able to maintain 15-17 million, but I doubt it will do anything better than that for ‘regular’ episodes. Grey’s Anatomy finished the season with a finale that hit over 17 million viewers at the end, so it should come back this season outrating CSI but slowly falling off to the 14-15 million it was doing.
Survivor should be up this fall from the spring, doing just about the same. Flash Forward is no Lost, and will probably do no more than 10 million (although it could take away from Survivor’s demo). Bones will have a lower demo but should also be able to do the same 8-10 million. The NBC comedies I could care less about, since they’ll all do the same they’ve always done. Community could come out as a success, though.
If The Mentalist start outrating CSI by a large amount then I can see a timeslot flip occuring but not until after the Olympics and the Superbowl. I’m not sure TPTB at CSI will be happy being moved to 10pm after almost 9-10 at 9pm but the show is aging and it would eaily outrate Private Practice and Leno.
I wonder if Lost will take the Flashforward slot when it returns in February? If the comedies take off then I can see being moved to 10pm on Wednesdays as an option or if the 8pm shows flop.
good god! im really gonna need DVR this season
Just watched Vampire Diaries! Its really good!
private practice demos went up after moving to thurs 10pm.
but mentalist now has better lead in so there demos should be better too.
I’ve been worried about the Thursday night lineup for a while now. I used to have 5 shows to try to watch in one night (Smallville, Bones, Grey’s, CSI and Supernatural). I’d watch Bones and Supernatural and watch Smallville and Grey’s online. I gave up on CSI when Grissom left. Now I have 9 shows in one night (adding in Fringe, Community, FlashForward, Private Practice and Mentalist). To make matters worse, I have one tv and NO DVR. Right now my plan is the same as always, watch Bones and Supernatural (with the Mentalist at 10) and try desperately to keep up online. I’m actually kind of hoping that some of the ratings drop enough that networks start reworking lineups!
Jon-
Lost will more than likely end up again on Wednesday. And looking at their fall Wed. line-up, they NEED it on Wednesday.
From https://twitter.com/breakingTVnews
“THE VAMPIRE DIARIES took a massive bite out of the competition, racking up a solid 4.84 million viewers in its debut.”
WOW!
The overrated Fringe is going to get hammered in this spot.
I can only hope that when 30 Rock returns they get it out of this time slot.
J. Norman, the only change to the 9pm hour this season is the addition of Fringe. Why should 30 Rock be moved now? And where would it go? Other than the 8pm Thursday hour, NBC has no other half hour time slots on its schedule.
Bill – I think 30 Rock should go to thursdays at 8 and replace SNL and NBC should leave Community after The Office. NBC may think they are holding up a front with The Office and 30 Rock but 30 Rock has proved itself to retain a lot of The Office lead in. So I think 30 Rock can hold up 8:00 a lot better than the new Parks and Community.
Jon – unless CSI would be in its final season, I could never see it flipping with The Mentalist. Maybe for its third or fourth season CBS could move The Mentalist to its struggling sunday nights where the “likely to be axed” Three Rivers and the “likely to end in May” veteran Cold Case currently are. To me thats CBS’s weakest night, drama wise.
nkinsey – It’s highly likely that Lost will return to 9pm wednesday shortening the comedy block to one hour at 8. Its possible Flashforward could move to 8pm wednesdays and air into Lost during midseason and the comedy hour could possibly move to 8pm Thursday. My bet is that Modern Family and Cougar Town will be the two series getting a full season so maybe ABC will try its Thursday 8pm comedy block out again with these two shows. Because chances are both comedies will do badly in their current 9:00 wed slot.
I think J Norman meant to get Fringe out of its timeslot. And thats not going to happen. I have a feeling that FOX is sticking with Bones and Fringe in the thursday time slot until May.
Looks like tough competition for Fringe. Oh well, if this prevents it from having a month hiatus in the spring because of being bumped by American Idol, I’m all for it.
I hope FlashForward does well. It looks quite good from all the commercials I’ve seen.
Vader – As long as Bones airs in front of it, FOX has no reason to not air repeats of Fringe at least. Flashforward should do well, its slot seems odd but maybe ABC will pair it with Lost in the spring. I’m sure it will get a full year though.
Arrrghh… why do these studio execs load up all the good stuff into one day. And then they act all surprised that people are using DVRs more and more, watching online, pirating episodes off bittorrent, or just lowering viewership.
Tuesday and Wednesday absolutely BLOW and then there is 3 or shows I want to watch in same timeslot for most of the night on Thursdays.
That leaves me to watch one, DVR the second, and download the 3rd… then its video games on T/W this season I guess… that and cable shows. Thank god Sunny is back soon…
Actually since the Premiere of Vampire Diaries I have to reset my expectations.
7:00 Probably DVR Bones and Vampire Diaries and watch Flashforward live.
8:00 DVR Supernatural
8:30 DVR Community until Oct. 15th.
I know most people think 9/8C will be the toughest hour but personally only Supernatural holds my interest. I’ve seen most of CSI on DVD and probably will do the same with Fringe eventually.
On the other hand 8/7C is a real problem. Bones is a lock, the tough part will be which out of The Vampire Diaries, Flashforward, and Community(once it moves to 7:30) will be worth watching.
Thanks,
Lizard
Justin – Thats TV scheduling. Its no coincidence that All of the networks pile up popular shows in the same timeslots on the same days and leave other days empty. Thursdays the worst, but luckily we have DVRs, Hulu, Websites where we can watch episodes for free. If you like a certain show there are so many more ways to watch that show than just TV.
Lizardman – 8pm is tough for thursdays. A lot of fans enjoy Survivor, however Bones has been a fan favorite since it premiered. We also have ABC’s new Flashforward, which looks interesting, NBC’s new comedy combo Community and Parks and Recreation as well as CW’s new Vampire Diaries. I’m not into the whole Vampire theme nor am I reality competitions. I do like Bones so I could probably watch that online, and I’ll probably check out Flashfoward since Parks/SNL updates are only OK. Community looks great so once that series moves to 8 I’ll likely start watching that and Parks, unless Flashforward really catches my interest. I prefer comedies but occasionally if a drama catches my interest, and its in a vacant timeslot. I’ll watch it, like The Mentalist, Dirty Sexy Money, Eli Stone, and Life on Mars last season. At 9 I’ll probably watch The Office/30 Rock. The Office is OK but I really enjoy 30 Rock, I don’t care for CSI, Grey’s, Supernatural or Fringe. At 10 I’ll watch It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia on FX.
By end of last season Bones was about 8 million and a 2.3 in the demo… I expect it will remain around the same viewers and between a 2.0 and 2.5 most weeks.
Flash Forward will get sampled… but there’s a lot of male audience programming elsewhere. And the biggest question is how much of its probably-good premiere number will it still have by, say, week four?
Vampire Diaries kind of lucks out… with Ugly Betty gone, it’s the only female skewing show in the 8pm hour. We’ll see tonight if this one will quickly bleed viewers from it’s high premiere or if it still has some other vampiric pun to do with healthy ratings.
Fringe at 9pm isn’t going to affect Grey’s Anatomy (which will start the season very strong because of the cliffhanger and the totally unkept secret about who lives and dies, but will fall back to more normal levels quickly, and we’ll see what the regular cast absences do to it…). It’s going to affect The Office / 30 Rock and CSI, which are more male skewing than Grey’s (Fringe, like CSI, is a fairly even gender show). But, really, we have no idea how Fringe is going to rate since it spent almost all of last season in the protected bubble of post-House and post-Idol.
By the end of last season, Grey’s was just beating CSI in viewers in addition to slaughtering its demo… I don’t think bringing old cast members back is going to fix CSI’s losses… it’s an aging show with too many clones and franchise extensions.
Mentalist will take 10pm in viewers and A18-49, though Private Practice will be much closer in A18-49 than it will in viewers.
if it still has some other vampiric pun to do with healthy ratings.
Sucking them in? Bringing CW back from the dead? Vamping it up?