We’ve posted about the phenomenon a bit here and there, but today’s LA Times has a whole article dedicated to TV insiders, particularly creative types, who are rooting for The Jay Leno Show to fail:
When “The Jay Leno Show” premieres tonight in its 10 p.m. weeknight slot, a fair number of industry insiders — and not just rival executives — will be rooting for it to flop. That’s mostly because, as part of NBC’s controversial experiment to overturn 60 years of prime-time TV traditions with relatively cheap programming, Leno’s new show is perceived as a potential job-wrecker. It’s Exhibit A for the worried writers, directors and crew members, already buffeted by the recession and labor unrest, who now watch with alarm as executives begin to trim back on expensive scripted shows that have kept thousands employed for years.
[...]
NBC executives dismiss the notion that Leno’s new gig is robbing the industry of jobs. “The Jay Leno Show” will have a staff of 22 writers who belong to the Writers Guild, which is far more than the typical drama, the network points out. The show will produce 230 episodes a year, as opposed to 22 episodes for the average drama, which means the writers will be employed longer. And the show will be locally produced in Burbank, thus preventing the flight of jobs to Vancouver, Toronto or one of the other out-of-state locations where many scripted series are now shot.
The article points out NBC’s claims that it is still dedicated to scripted content, and also notes (through NBC’s Marc Graboff) that the Leno move wasn’t just about cost savings, but also about not losing Leno to a rival network.
The story also says that the typical cost for a broadcast network to program originals and repeats of top scripted dramas for the 10pm hour run $300 million a year per network, with Leno’s show expected to cost roughly $100 million a year.
what’s up with the random picture of Jay Leno above the “Help” tab?
I put it there for the day
Edit: that it landed directly above the “Help” navigation is purely coincidental!
“LA Times: TV Insiders hope Jay Leno’s new show fails”
ME TOO!!!!
They are all evil!
I think most fans of TV want Leno to fail. He’s eating up 5 hours of potential scripted programming.
he will not fail
This is a little like the airline industry: Luck (and government interference) has staved off wholesale failures of any of the leading domestic suppliers there, essentially just delaying the inevitable. The structural problems, inconsistencies between cost models and pricing models, still mostly exist there, and similar inconsistencies exist in over-the-air broadcasting. The airline industry seems more stable than a few years ago, but that’s mostly a credit to how much they’ve cut costs, and shifted to surcharging customers to improve the pricing side of the equation. Think long and hard about how that path will affect broadcasting. The cost-cutting is the specter that Leno presents, and we can see the fear that evokes, in the angry tirades prompted by frustration with how things are going. Imagine, for a minute, what the analog to surcharging will be. And recognize that this isn’t avoidable: We’re going to go down one of these paths, or a combination of the two, because consumers aren’t going to suddenly have a collective national revelation that they need to pay substantially more into the system to fill the structural gap. There is no reason why broadcasting will not follow the same path as airlines.
So which do you prefer? More cost-cutting? Or the analog to surcharging? Because those are the choices. The pipe dream of magically the world becoming a better place and high quality programming beginning to grown on trees — well that’s not an option.
I think the thing to really think about here is that NBC’s failure level for Jay is a lot lower than the industry’s. They are going to be spinning numbers no matter how low it gets; and then if/when the numbers are too low to spin, they’ll go back to the profits/expense reasons. The fact is, NBC does NOT want to admit this was a mistake, so for at least a year they will argue the point.
If they know what’s good for them, they’ll add Dawn’s number on their speed dial. She’s been spinning the hell out of CW for years now, so they could use her PR help.
Brian, I agree with your point about the fear generated by Leno in the threatened suppliers (producers, writers, actors).
There is a surcharging analog that will likely happen, although I don’t think it can change the path of cost cutting. Just as cable networks get a portion (and for some a large portion) of their revenues from retransmission fees (from cable system operators and satellite companies), so can/will current “broadcast” networks. While that won’t cause consumers to directly pay money to the broadcast networks, they’ll end up with higher satellite or cable fees, some of which will go to the broadcast networks. That money’s not going to allow the broadcast industry to maintain its current level of costs, but it is somewhat akin to the airline changes.
Jays not ruining the business, it’s just changing. With 100 plus channels on cable there’s thousand more jobs than there used to be.
It’s just 5 million viewers will be the new norm as the audience’s viewing habits branch out.
What a surprise I got this morning. I woke up with Bonnie Hunt! It was great to have a nice comedy show to wake up to. It will be good to have comedy to end the day too.
@nkinsey: The same can be said of the critics of NBC: They’re going to be spinning numbers no matter what; they’re going to draw a horrible picture of the Leno situation because they don’t like it on principle, not necessarily because it is a bad move for NBC. Generally, critics of NBC aren’t reliable sources of information about what is and is not a good more for NBC. And no matter what, critics of NBC will NOT want to admit that this wasn’t a mistake, no matter what.
@Bill Gorman: Yes, inflation of retransmission fees will be one means of surcharging. However, I think, as you suggested, that will result mostly in misdirected anger at cable and satellite service providers. Beyond inflation of retransmission fees, though, I see surcharging also coming in the form of more invasive advertising, possibly more invasive use of overlays for advertising products and services beyond offerings of the television network itself.
Brian-
You are absolutely correct. I think from week one (that is, when Jay is against the comp’s new episodes), one side will claim success while the other(s) claim Jay’s/NBC’s demise. Pretty much you will fall on the side of who you believed in from the get-go. Get ready for one frustrating debate.
I want him to fail, too.
I’m rooting for the Leno show to succeed, if only because it will probably be more watchable –i.e., I’m more likely to watch it once in a while– than the scripted shows NBC has tried at 10pm in the past decade.
Can they sell DVDs of these Leno shows? Can they be run on cable too? That is a part of the economic equation that scripted shows have to produce revenue beyond the original air dates. Look at the original Star Trek. How many have bought the tapes, the DVDs, the special DVDs, the extra special DVDs, and now the Blue Rays? How much money have they made in syndication? The networks may not get all of this revenue stream but they get some and some people do get residuals. Anyway that is something to think about in all this talk about the Leno economics. It may be cost effective in the short run but will it cost them money in the long run?
Catherine, when shows don’t make it past their first season, as most of NBC’s 10 PM shows in recent years have not, there’s no money in DVDs or syndication to be made.
Catherine, the broadcast networks typically don’t get any of those other revenue streams you wrote of, the production companies do. Of course, sometimes the production companies and the networks share a corporate parent. Then, the economics get complicated.
I think the DVD revenue is definitely a component that is true in relation to Leno. But it is also true in relation to almost all unscripted programming, and let’s face it, FOX isn’t going to pull American Idol simply because there’s not much of an ancillary revenue stream from DVDs.
to Julia’s point, even if Leno fails, it winds up being much cheaper than launching 10 new scripted series to get the one (given NBC’s recent track record) that might stick around.
Cathrine-
I could definately see Leno’s new show having DVD releases, but I don’t think you’ll see full episodes (are they even called episodes? editions? installments maybe?). My guess is you’ll see “Best of” series; like “Best of Jaywalking” etc.
Brian right on all counts. If we think advertising is intrusive now – and I don’t know anyone sane who doesn’t – just wait. Wait until you have countdown clocks for unpcoming shows running 24/7 in the right hand upper corner, and promos amnd even consumer product ads continually along the bottom, without respite. Product placement will become even more in your face, meaning there won’t be a scene shot without it, nor a single character not wearing a T-shirt advertising something. And of course, the army of TV network plants in the magazines, newspapers, entertainment ” journalism ” shows and web sites will scrutinize Leno negatively like noone except an unpopular president … If Leno is the driven yet also head-screwed-on guy he’s portrayed to be, he’ll need all of that he can muster.
Although I am no fan (nor am I a hater either) I would like Leno to succeed if only it would start a trend. Maybe if it’s successful, then we’ll start to see variety/talk shows replace so-called reality shows as inexpensive primetime programming. Anything that could take the place of another fake reality series would be a plus in my book.
Face it, scripted fare on primetime has been in decline ever since “Survivor” hit the airwaves. And it’s never been the same since. Leno is no more a threat to sitcoms and crime dramas than Carol Burnett, Dean Martin, Sonny & Cher, Ed Sullivan or Laugh-in was in their day. It’s reality TV that’s responsible for the lack of scripted shows today. (Not that reality aren’t scripted per se, just really poorly …)
Good point RW. I can easily see the Leno show being a Ed Sullivan/Bob Hope type of program for this generation, introducing the variety series format to those too young to remember them in their hey-day. I agree that if the networks are going to offer us cheap programming anyhow, then ANYTHING would be better than another boring reality show filled with a bunch of bad actors posing as contestants that would never make the cast of a REAL scripted show.
Personally I don’t understand why the industry would be so dead set against Jay Leno succeeding. How is Leno being on NBC primetime 5 days a week anymore of a threat to scripted shows than a phony stupid show like Big Brother taking up 3 hours of CBS’ primetime schedule every week? Unless they are finally admitting what we all know, reality shows are all scripted anyhow.
I think NBC couldn’t have picked a better season to make a move at 10 PM. Both CSI MIAMI & CSI NY are getting a little long in the tooth so inroads on Monday & Wednesday are possible. Castle, Brothers & Sisters, Numb3rs & Private Practice are not powerhouses by any means. The Good Wife looks like another Cane-like disappointment for CBS on Tuesday. The Mentalist looks like the only show Leno doesn’t stand a chance to make a dent in ratingswise. I suspect that Leno will also have a longterm effect on the competitions’ ratings when they normally schedule repeats in December and March, which might force the other networks to try limited run new series in those timeslots instead of reruns. Time will tell but I think it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.