Last fall, Monday night started as one of the most competitive nights on broadcast television, and it looks to be again between CBS, Fox and ABC. NBC’s down for the count.
Below are the hourly lineups, including each shows 18-49 demo rating average (which includes in-slot repeats) from the 2008-9 season as well as my guesses for the fall nightly overall results.
If you enjoyed the Monday night look ahead for the 2009-10 season, check out Sunday’s, Friday’s, Thursday’s, Wednesday’s and Tuesday’s. For those fans of ABC College Football and Fox’s Cops and America’s Most Wanted, no, there won’t be a Saturday preview.
8:00
Dancing With the Stars (ABC), 4.6 18-49 demo rating (8-10p)
How I Met Your Mother (CBS), 3.6 demo rating
House (Fox), 4.7 demo rating
Heroes (NBC), 3.6 demo rating
One Tree Hill (CW), 1.1 demo rating
8:30
Accidentally On Purpose (CBS), New
9:00
Two And A Half Men (CBS) 4.7 demo rating
Lie To Me (Fox), 3.4 demo rating
Trauma (NBC), New
Gossip Girl (CW), 1.1 demo rating
9:30
Big Bang Theory (CBS), 3.5 demo rating
10:00
Castle (ABC), 2.4 demo rating
CSI Miami (CBS), 3.7 demo rating
The Jay Leno Show (NBC), New, Fall 2009 Tonight Show averaged about a 1.4-1.5 demo rating
My Guess
I think just above an overall 4.0 adults 18-49 demo wins the night in the fall.
CBS and Fox look to be neck and neck at the top. The difference hinges on how well Lie To Me holds up at 9pm. It’s half of Fox’s average for the night. CBS’ only newcomer Accidentally on Purpose accounts for only 1/6 of CBS’ average for the night. It would really have to go really big or crash to have a major impact. ABC looks to be a close third. Anything more than a 3.0 demo rating average from Castle and ABC may be contending.
NBC’s looking at a distant fourth. Heroes slid during all of last season and looks unlikely to reach back to its average from last year. Launching Trauma after it will be very difficult, and The Jay Leno show will dampen the averages. With just timeslot rearrangement of One Tree Hill and Gossip Girl, the CW looks to get about the results they had last season.
Note: I make all my guesses completely unburdened by having read any reviews of any of the new shows, having seen any of the pilots, or knowing any more than the most casual details of their subject matter. Does that make mine better or worse than the typical TV writer which focuses almost solely on those? Your mileage may vary.
Fox caveat: Regardless of their other shows, the outcome of the major league baseball playoffs can make or break Fox’s fall averages. If they get long series with good matchups their overall season averages benefit tremendously. If they get short series with bad matchups, they’ll suffer.
Can’t wait for Leno ratings!!
I think CBS will narrowly defeat Fox. I don’t see ABC being near at all. Other than Nathan Fillion, Castle doesn’t have much appeal in competition with CSI: Miami.
Can’t wait for the 2 hour House next Monday at 8pm, and CSI: Miamim at 10pm!
One Tree Hill and Gossip Girl will probably get between 2.5 and 3.2M viewers for their premieres.
I think when House has it’s big 2-hour premiere next week, it will probably pull in betweeen 12-14M and get around a 3.0 in the 18-49 demographic.
Heroes 2 hour premiere I’m afraid will probably do no better than 7-8M, but do okay in the 18-49 demo.
Awesome choice for the lead photo Mr. Gorman
My predictions:
8pm
DWTS – 18 million (4.5 demo)
House – 15 million (4.6 demo)
How I Met Your Mother – 9 million (3.4 demo)
Accidentally on Purpose – 7 million (2.8 demo)
Heroes – 8 million (3.5 demo)
One Tree Hill – 2.5 million (1.2 demo)
9pm
Two and Half Men – 15 million (4.7 demo)
The Big Bang Theory – 12 million (4.5 demo)
Lie to Me – 10 million (3.2 demo)
Trauma – 6 million (2.0 demo)
Gossip Girl – 2.6 milllion (1.2 demo)
10pm
CSI Miami – 15 million (3.7 demo)
Castle – 10 million (2.5 demo)
Jay Leno – 5 million (1.8 demo)
I think 15M for House and CSI: Miami is being a little generous. Both shows averaged around 12M last season. CSI: Miami is not the powerhouse it once was on Monday’s at 10pm.
Yeah probably I’m overestimating House too much but for CSI: Miami I think it is still possible because I believe The Big Bang Theory is a better lead in and it has lesser competition now because Medium is gone and unless Castle and Leno will pull big viewers, CSI: Miami might still reach 15 million again. And CSI: Miami actually averaged 14 million viewers last season according to this http://www.abcmedianet.com/web/dnr/dispDNR.aspx?id=052709_07 so I guess 15 million viewers is still attainable.
10 o’clock is boring all around, in terms of quality. In EW’s recommendation of what to watch each night, the only broadcast show they recommend watching live at that hour is Good Wife.
Gossip Girl was great in 2008; there hasn’t been a good episode this year. I started to just skip the scenes with characters I don’t care about, which at least makes it more enjoyable. I hope it recovers in terms of quality…and in ratings as a result.
Where is my precious CHUCK!?!?!?!
Here’s a question- who thinks this will be Heroes’ last season?
I see Big Bang flirting with 4.0 ratings, now that it follows Two and a Half and isn’t opposite House.
Where did Heroes bottom out at last year? Sub 3.0? I see no reason why their average shouldn’t at or below that, with the earlier timeslot and additional hatred by viewers. Trauma will be lucky to get 3.0 – neither will be seen after February.
I see Castle hovering in the 2.6 – 2.8 range. Bad enough that ABC will want to cancel it, but good enough that there’s no guarantee a midseason replacement would do any better – the worst of all programming worlds.
I don’t understand the hatred of Heroes. the quality has been the same the entire time for me.
Maybe they should add a vampire.
I think the quality has declined significantly after the awesome first season.
I think this catering to 18-49 year olds by advertisers and networks is one of the reasons why television has deteriorated over the past decade or so. If you’re over 49 you might as well die. So my usefulness to the networks and their advertisers will end in five years. Actually my guess is that there true demo is 18-34 year old singles. It doesn’t matter if a show has a good overall rating if it doesn’t get those younger, hip viewers.
I expect having Big Bang Theory before CSI:Miami will help CSI:Miami which was hurt by a weak lead in Worst Week, it has won its slot constitenly aside from The Bachelor finale and I believe it skews younger than CSI and CSI:NY, If CSI continues to decline then we may have a case where the sister show is outrating the parent show.
I think CBS’s big problem isn’t that Accidentally on Purpose is going to flop, but that HIMYM will drop. Last season the few times that CBS tested it at 8 pm the results were not so great. It also didn’t take off until it was moved to 8:30. TBBT will be a gain for CBS at 9:30, but I’m not sure if that will make up for losses at both 8 and 8:30. I see CBS down a bit and Fox barely eeking out a win for the night.
I see Big Bang flirting with 4.0 ratings, now that it follows Two and a Half and isn’t opposite House
It was “flirting” with 4.0 last year (and hit it several times). With the Men lead-in, it will be flirting with 5.0
I’m really worried for HIMYM starting the night. In late season 2 and early season 3 they were already on at 8pm and the ratings were low back then and there a lot of talk of possible cancellation and well they did the stunt casting with Britney Spears and moved back to 8:30pm so they became stable again. I hope HIMYM could survive going back at 8pm again
I think CBS could pull a win here if the 8:00 hour doesn’t drop too badly, but really, it’s anybody’s game (well, except NBC)
8:00–House will take the hour with Dancing a fairly close second. HIMYM will take a hit moving to 8 and Accidentally on Purpose won’t help the situation any. Third could go to CBS or Heroes. CBS could pull a win if AOP surprises or if the Heroes audience is actually fed up and leaves.
9:00–CBS will win the hour. BBT will do really well behind Men, making this hour stronger than it has been in a long time. Dancing will be second (though winning in viewers). Lie to Me and Trauma will compete for a distant third.
10:00–Another win for CBS. Castle will hold steady with reasonable but not great ratings.
Chuck, the targeting of adults 18-49 has been going on a lot longer than the past decade. Try at least the last 30 years, if not longer.
Chuck, the tv show, isn’t returning til Spring or mid winter, correct?
Will it still be on Mondays, or do we not know that yet?
Michael-
I don’t think you are that off in your predictions. Last season’s Heroes finale was VERY disappointing when you look at how popular the show USED to be. I think NBC has wanted to make this show a HUGE network player, but with its eroding audience (not to mention how expensive it is), I don’t see it lasting much longer.
@Eric, If I remember correctly, NBC’s mid-season schedule had Chuck slated for Monday, but those advance schedules always change, so there’s no guarantee.
To expand on Holly’s point, I didn’t include any shows in these nightly analysis posts that were proposed to start *after* Jan 1 because their potential for change is high enough to make it a wasted exercise.
I think How I Met Your Mother will bomb at 8. The show sucks, and the only reason it got good ratings last year was due to the Big Bang Theory lead in.
Here’s my guess for Mondays
8:00
Dancing With the Stars 20-22 million
House 13-14 million
How I Met Your Mother/Accidentally on Purpose 8-10 million
Heroes 7-8 million
One Tree Hill 3 million
Dancing will easily win 8-9 with 20 million and drama House coming in second with 13 million. I believe HIMYM along with Accidentally will hold up strong against these two shows with around 9 million average.
Heroes (which has been losing steam the past few years will get fourth with around 7 million viewers and One Tree Hill coming in fifth with 3 million.
9:00
DWTS 20 million
Two and a Half Men / The Big Bang Theory 13-15 million
Lie to Me 8-9 million
Trauma 5-7 million
Gossip Girl 2-3 million
Dancing will continue to hold up the hour with 20 million. (It has an advantage now that theres no comedy in the hour) In second, Two and a Half Men should easily build on its lead in and get around 14 million and The Big Bang Theory should hold on to its Men lead in better than any other comedy with 13 million. Lie to Me will get third (and should hold on to a good portion of House) with around 8-9 million and Trauma will get fourth with around 5-7 (if it can hold on to Heroes). Gossip Girl will likely get around 2-3 million in fifth.
10:00
CSI Miami 13-14 million
Castle 8-10 million
Jay Leno Show 5-7 million
CSI Miami will easily win 10pm like always with 13 million, and if Castle can hold on to a good portion of Dancing, it should get around 10 million. Jay Leno should get a good third of 5-7 million.
Bottom line
ABC’s Dancing will win the night followed by CBS’s comedies (freshman Accidentally should hold up through the season). FOX and NBC will likely place third and fourth respectively but the real interesting thing is to see the retention of Lie to Me out of House and Trauma out of Heroes. I think both should retain a good portion of their preceding show’s audience.
It’s extremely true that at least in the fall it’s nearly a 3 way tie between ABC, CBS, and FOX. My best uneducated guess here is based on assuming all new episodes against each other and based on these fall lineups thru November sweeps after that who knows the schedules will likely start changing.
I think ABC will squeak it out and average right about a 4.0 in the demo. I believe DWTS is staying 2 hours during the fall and with the most dancers ever in a season, it may keep the natural declines to a minimum. CBS I think will average about a 3.9 in the demo. They seem to be strong in the second half of the night and that should be up year over year but the first half including likely declines for 2.5 Men is why I think they won’t claim first. HIMYM never did great at 8, it should do ok now that it should have grown it’s fanbase after last year, but it will drop and I don’t see Purpose doing well at all at least not after the first couple episodes. FOX I think will be a very close third at 3.8 in the demo. I think Lie to Me is going to pull down the average for FOX quite a bit, but the show is compatible with House so if it can grow its audience it would give FOX a solid chance at taking first. It’s a very close race but I say ABC, then CBS, then FOX. NBC will be lucky to hang on to a 2.5-2.6 in the demo once Leno settles down. CW will be in their typical 1.1-1.2 range.
I can’t believe it’s fall again!! Time to start checking out the index soon! Thanks for keeping the site going!
How Castle holds on to Dancing’s audience is even more interesting to me, since Castle will have more audience to work with…
…and, with our luck, Nielsen will make their own “Renew/Cancel Index”, then send their evil piranha lawyers after you, your families, and all the site addicts for trademark violations, even though you were first…
…sounds like a new SyFy show synopsis to me – but who could be the lead piranha lawyer – James Woods?
…better yet, Linus Roache as the reversed piranha lawyer working for the rebel forces of TVBTN
Theoacme – Most times newer midseason series air at Monday at 10pm on ABC and then get axed. (What About Brian, October Road, Boston Legal) I’d say Castle would perform the same but what else every 10pm series had a disadvantage of having Samantha Who sandwiched between it and Dancing. Castle has an advantage of directly getting its Dancing lead in and while it will get a full year, CSI Miami will beat it for the night. Jay Leno may also have trouble from the likely fourth place Trauma lead in. 10pm slots usually rely on a hardcore fanbase and a good show to retain from for high ratings. Thats in ABC’s case, CBS usually has its own strong drama at 10 (CSI NY, CSI Miami, Numb3rs) and some nights are reserved for new shows like Tuesdays and Thursdays at 10 and they usually rely on CSI. ABC does a lot of retention between Private Practice out of Grey’s, Brothers & Sisters out of Housewives, Some poor show (The Nine, Life on Mars) after Lost, a comedy (Samantha Who or Surviving Suburbia) or Drama (Castle) out of Dancing. Thats how most of ABC’s dramas get developed. And Castle will get a full season.
CSM – CBS will win likely every night with total viewers, But between FOX and ABC theres Dancing on Monday to Wednesday so both will get a good chunk of viewers. FOX will likely get second overall (Mon-Wed) third or fourth (Thurs) and last fridays. ABC will get second Sun-Tues with Dancing, fourth Wed with its low rated comedies, second on thursdays, and likely third fridays. NBC is likely to do OK-Not so great. Sundays football will easily win, Mondays they may get fourth with its sinking Heroes (probly bringing down Trauma), The Biggest Loser though may come in last should hold up well between ABC & FOX’s Dancing and CBS’s NCIS, Mercy may do OK at 8, but SVU will definitely help NBC get second at 9. NBC’s comedies could either get third or fourth depending on how FOX does. I predict Bones will get second or third on Thursday, (possibly Flashforward getting third) and NBC’s comedies would get fourth but at 9 I could see The Office possibly beating Fringe out for third.
Here’s a guess for every night, total viewer wise
Monday
1st ABC (would dominate)
2nd CBS (Would place third with HIMYM and Accidentally)
3rd FOX (Would place second with House at
4th NBC (Dramas would likely get crushed)
Individually ABC will get first from 8-FOX would place second 8, CBS would win 9
Tuesdays
1st CBS (NCIS’s would dominate)
2nd ABC (Dancing will do well at 9)
3rd FOX (would get a third against Dancing and NCIS)
4th NBC (Bigest Loser would get fourth but do moderately well)
Wednesdays
1st CBS (would lose to FOX at
2nd FOX (would beat CBS at 8 but get third at 9)
3rd NBC (would get second at 9)
4th ABC (comedies would get destroyed)
Thursdays
1st CBS (would win throughout the night)
2nd ABC (would place second throughout the night)
3rd FOX (likely to get third at 8 and fourth at 9)
4th NBC (likely to get fourth at 8 and third at 9)
Fridays
1st CBS (will easily win the night)
2nd NBC or ABC (leaning toward NBC with L&O)
3rd ABC or NBC (leaning toward ABC with waning Ugly Betty)
4th FOX (will easily lose the night)
Sunday
1st NBC (will dominate with football)
2nd ABC (would win at 9 and 10 but lose at
3rd CBS (would lose at 9 with Three Rivers which would bring down Cold Case)
4th FOX (would get fourth but with respectable numbers)
The Monday Night Battle will start next week, I’m excited
House is the number one most watched show in the world. It will have the most viewers. Except for DWTS which is really stupid. CSI: Miami will do good. Personaly i quit watching it because it did not grab my attention anymore! Two and a half men will do very well too.