The Jay Leno Show wrapped its first week with numbers that fall into the range where NBC couldn’t have reasonably hoped for better. As predicted by most, the show premiered to relatively huge numbers and declined throughout the week with the exception of a Susan Boyle appearance on the finale of America’s Got Talent bumping the Wednesday numbers up.
Some attention was paid to a repeat of The Mentalist beating Leno in total viewers on Thursday as if that was a bad sign for the show. But we don’t believe that’s a bad sign. In fact, we fully expect CBS reruns will regularly beat Leno in total viewers and we won’t be at all surprised if CBS repeats regularly edge Leno out in the 18-49 demo either. But we don’t think that means anything in terms of the show’s viability in NBC’s eyes. My feeling has been (Bill’s might differ slightly) that if Leno averages a 1.5 in adults 18-49 NBC will be content, regardless of yakking from affiliates, and if it averages a 2.0, NBC (and begrudgingly, the affiliates) will be ecstatic.
This week is meaningless in figuring the show’s future prospects. While next week will be more telling, it might take a month or two or three before we really have a feel for how the show is doing. I wouldn’t predict any panic by NBC in that time frame. I would predict lots of stories in the media that are panicky in nature regardless.
Of course, if Leno is pulling a 1.1 adults 18-49 rating next week, I reserve the right to panic myself. Even with the competition airing new shows at 10pm next week, I would be very surprised if any airing of The Jay Leno Show dips below a 1.5 with adults 18-49 next week.
Though putting the week’s data into a chart doesn’t add any particular value, I have a week before trying to calculate how what movies were playing and what outfits Eliza Dushku wore impacted Dollhouse’s ratings, so I did the chart anyway.
Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.
*Numbers for Friday 9/18 are preliminary fast national results, all other results are final nationals
Didn’t Leno do 3.4 in the finals on Tuesday?
Definitely a good first week. I’ll be surprised if next week’s average is too far below 2.5, which will be great for NBC. But it should be closer to 1.5 by next month.
you are correct!
So during his first week Leno lost 58% of total viewers and 60% 18-49 rating. Pretty hefty drop but still from a mucher higher point that thought. He is doing good, Nbc must be happy.
Next week will be Leno’s big test. I expect a huge drop.
Here is a question for Robert S. What did NBC average for each night for last season in the Leno time slot? I think the real question should be is Leno doing as well as the network did last season? The network was not strong with a few exceptions like the ER finale.
ER was “strong” relatively all year. And so was L&O: SVU when it was in original episodes. Sadly, we don’t have the stats you’re looking for. I wish we did.
As I said last week.
Sub 6m by 1st week Oct.
Also is Bored to Death the next Emily’s Reasons Why Not?
So the 2.1 he pulled on Friday isn’t a cause for panic for NBC?
Cullen, he’s (probably) still profitable at a 1.5 average, and Fridays are expected to be his lowest rated episodes of the week. So, no, 2.1 on Friday is cause for NBC to be very smug…for now.
How could NBC possibly be satisfied with Jay Leno with anything in the 1.5 or 2.0 range, when in his last season at 11:30, he averaged a 3.9 rating? The ratings you seem to suggest would be acceptable if he had moved to 12:30, not prime time. Let’s get real, stop drinking that NBC Kool-Aid.
Tom, well if you read the article, it specified 1.5-2.0 adults 18-49 rating. But since nobody here ever talks about household rating, in the comments people do commonly not call it out. Anyway, Leno averaged a 1.4 during the 2008-2009 season for The Tonight Show in the adults 18-49 demo…
It ended the week with a 2.1 (demo) and this is with high awareness, high profile guests, and weak competition. It does not seem improbable that Numb3rs numbers (1.0) will soon be attained.
This is why the jay leno show is starting to ruin everything in nbc’s schedule each day. Just last night, NBC delayed last call with carson daly to 2:00am last night or this morning. The Jay Leno show is going to be canceled after next week because it’ll have bad ratings with a 1.0 rating every night next week. Let’s see what happens in 2 weeks from now.
As much as I wish Jay Leno would crash and burn spectacularly, and Jeff Zucker would experience 2010 slinging burgers in a Wendy’s, this is going to be a success for NBC by their metrics. Personally, I don’t get it. In fact I find Jay about as amusing as a wet fart on a hot date, but he has his fan base, and there is a genuine audience out there for his brand of milquetoast pseudo-variety in the weeknight 10pm slot. The ratings will drop to the 1.5+ range sooner or later, but for NBC and what they’re paying, that’s a success. Congrats. Jay’s popular. But then again, so is cancer.
Elie, no way Jay is going to be cancelled in two weeks if his ratings drop. NBC would not do that after all the hype. And frankly, I don’t expect this to be a flop. If he can maintain 1.5-2.0 18-49 and 5-6 million average with increases on some nights and a better ratings average when scripted shows go on hiatus then NBC will consider this a big success especially since the budget for a week full of JL Shows equals one hour long scripted drama.
These Leno haters are the best!!! It’s like my hate for every CW show, except ’supernatural’ (VD pending)… I love it!
btw – congrats to Jay, this was beyond anything I expected. I’m glad, because he (Jay) rulzzz, as far as comedy talk show is concerned. He and Craig Ferguson, actually. Not because Craig is funny, (he is NOT) it’s just… he has Kristen Bell on the show like every other month, and that, in my book, is considered a quality TV.
Never watched Leno never will. What a waste of a timeslot.
I know NBC is looking for the 18-49 demo, as networks should be, but the late local news is looking for the 25-54 demo. What demo do you think is more important for Jay to have?
RJ, very interesting question. Presumably it would be the adults 18-49 demo, as US primetime broadcast networks (minus CW recently) have targeted for more than a generation.
But in NBC’s emailed ratings “updates” referring to The Jay Leno Show have also been including adults 25-54 ratings with the following clause “(the key demographic for late local news)”.
Were I a betting man, I’d put money down that if the 18-49 numbers begin to look particularly bad for Leno, NBC PR’s next fallback line will become 25-54 ratings and they’ll justify that because of the local news lead-in.
I like Leno, but I just hated watching his first show that I actually forgot the show existed on tuesday. The things I hated about the show were (which the pictures brings up point one):
1) Interviewing on the chairs doesn’t feel right to me. To me it is more fun if the host is behind a desk doing the interview.
2) The random placement of the skit pieces throughout the program. I hated having to watch the entire episode waiting for headlines, only to see he actually does have a desk and wasn’t using it for the interviews.
The show needs to be kept like it was before, with all the comedy bits at the beginning, and the interviews at the end.
Thanks for the response Bill!
So you are saying, as long as the show breaks even with its revenue, NBC would be happy? So NBC would not be pushing hard to put something exciting on air? Something is not right if that is the case. I hope the jay followers would keep this in mind while there are watching the same old repeated lame dirty jokes day after day. Never mind the interview, Jay keeps talking and interrupting, telling you he’s been married over 25 years again and again. To heck with that, not funny enough for me! I rather watch CNN or news, when the reruns are on CBS or ABC!
kkimbo, NBC wouldn’t be happy with break even profitability for the Leno show, but what they would be fine with (and what I really think you, and many others object to) is *never* being first (and maybe not second) in the ratings at 10pm weekdays. They’ve said as much.
I’ll watch Leno’s opening monologue most nights. I’ll look at a lot of the sketches at the beginning and see which correspondents I want to continue watching. I’ll skip most of the interviews because I don’t think that’s his strong suit. I’ll probably see the last 10 minutes often to watch Headlines and Jaywalking. The show is very easy to enter and exit within a night, let alone from one episode to the next.
NBC needs to develop its 8-10 slate before worrying about the 10 p.m. hour. The network’s strongest shows are non-scripted (Sunday Night Football, The Biggest Loser and America’s Got Talent). Law and Order has been a mainstay for 20 years but it’s past time to look at replacements. The comedy block has critical favorites and niche hits, not mainstream appeal.
NBC was fourth place throughout its lineup. If Leno can draw similar ratings for much less money at 10 p.m., NBC (and its parent company, General Electric) will be happy. Plug that hole for awhile as the rest of the schedule is fixed.
Possibly David Letterman could do a similar show. I doubt it but he’s a nationally-known host with a loyal following. However, CBS is number one at 10 p.m. and will be the last to go to the variety show format.
I don’t think Jimmy Kimmel could do it. He’s had a few forays into primetime with specials and even a summer gig hosting a game show. Nothing worked. ABC will stay with its 10 p.m. lineup because it has no other option now.
I like Jay. I was, however, surprised at how uneven the show was on the two nights I saw it (Wed and Thu). The Miley Cyrus interview was marred by technical details (the satellite delay inserted awkward pauses into their back-and-forth) plus it seemed like he was trying to set her up, what with a Jonas brothers question and asking her to name Billy Ray songs. Then on Thursday the D.L. Hughley bit was just awful. On both nights Jay stumbled badly during the monologue (not to mentioned getting heckled by his own audience on Thursday causing a decent joke to go flat).
I think the concept can work but I have been surprised that the execution has been sub-Leno standards. That’s why I didn’t tune in Friday.
I was as skeptical as anyone about Leno but I have to agree with this article that the show did as well as nbc could have hoped in its first week.
I would say the thursday # is of greater importance than the Friday #.
Friday is always going to be weak overall. You can’t gauge anything by it unless you’re a dollhouse fan
Jay will tank even more once the new season with original programming starts in earnest. He got months of non-stop promotion and still ended the week with a 2.1 by Friday. There has never been a more heavily promoted show with such bad ratings after 1 week. I guess people driving an electric car is not groundbreaking TV.
I love Leno – always have – He’ll do just fine in this time slot. He’s smart, quick, well read and genuinely funny. As far as the new format goes, it’s just different than the one everyone has gotten used to for the lat 17 yers. In a month viewers will not remember what the old set looked like. People just have to have something to bitch about or they’re not happy. He’s going to do well because he deserves it. He’s not only a great comedian but he is a dexcent human being which, should by itself, be enough to to make him extremely successful in a town where almost no one else is. Tune in to Letterman (stupid humor) one night. You’ll realize just how intelligent and funny Leno is!!!!!!
I have to agree with Jacque, I think Jay is great and had some very funny bits. From what I heard in interviews, Jay doesn’t expect to beat the new shows against, him, just pull a decent amount and then he will beat them when they all rerun. And less face it, there are more reruns on the other shows than new ones. And give them a little time to see what works and what doesn’t, there might be some changes. It was really different what he is doing with the musical guests–combining more than one star together. You can see one star doing his thing at any time on videos and You Tube, but no ones had combined acts. That’s all new and fun to watch. Keep it up Jay!
I agree with Jacque too! I tried to watch David all summer and it was very painful. Except for the Palin jokes and their feud there wasn’t a whole lot to see. Paul McCartney was great but that was about it. I kept counting the days till Jay got back. I like the new time slot because I can watch Jay then the news and then go to bed. If I’m not tired and can watch David till he puts me to sleep. I see a growing audience as time goes on as viewers new to Jay start to become fans. Go Jay!!!!!!
As I write I have David Letterman on in the background having some fun with President Barack Obama. I liked Leno as a stand-up comedian. After he and his friends stabbed Leterman in the back and took the show that was practically promised to him by Mr; Carson, I NEVER watched Leno again.
David Letterman stands hands above the intelectual level exhibited by Mr. Leno. David is funny, but can give as good an interview as the best news gatherer. Leno can not do this.
NBC will drop the show. Leno will not lose a penny. What a waste of OUR air time. Remember that the radio and television frequencies are still owned by Americans. Don’t ever forget that!
“Anyway, Leno averaged a 1.4 during the 2008-2009 season for The Tonight Show in the adults 18-49 demo…”
Robert, you’re right on the demographics, but still, I thank you for making my point for me. According to the numbers in your article, you were essentially stating that NBC would be satisfied with Leno, if his ratings maintained in prime time the same numbers he had at 11:30 pm. That’s hardly a plus. And how long are Leno’s sponsors expected to follow this move?
I am a big fan of Leno. His show is normally a good way to kill time. I think it can be 10 times better with some adjustments. Here are my two cents:
1. Don’t stick to a fix format. Mix and match segments to surprise the audience a bit. For example, the occasional racing bits is fun.
2. The “10 at 10″ is interesting — for a few episodes. It feels too scripted and unease. Show it strategically, not every night.
3. Drop the reading typos segment. It is hard to watch. Laughing at other’s mistakes is not exactly a real type of joy.
4. Change the tune of “Jaywalk” a bit. Again, “people are so dumb” is not a very comfortable feeling. There is no need to showcase how the writers/Leno are so much smarter than a people off the street. Many people can talk to Leno and shame him on his knowledge level too. Just have fun, but not belittling people.
5. Add some “Ed Sullivin” feel to the show. Find some talented young singers/bands and provide surprise and excitement to the audience. Don’t just find the most popular ones.
6. Add some intellectual bits to the show to level the field with Letterman. For example, other than the typical long interviews with the entertainers, occasionally conduct some short interview some writers or artists. It will raise the feel of this show.
In all, produce the show like editing a magazine like “Time” or “Newsweek.” Mix and match long and short segments. It will change the look of prime-time TV.
Did any of the responders actally watch the show? Everyone seems interested in the number of households viewing Leno’s disaster. That means nothing. NBC gave Leno this show so he wouldn’t compete on ABC against Conehead at 11:35pm. We viewers are the victims of this subterfuge. Leno is just not funny though his old skits were. His interviewing skills are about as real as flying pigs.
To get more specific it seems that the “acting” of Leno and his super-star guests is very stilted, unrehearsed, sophomoric and totally unfunny. When Leno leans over ala Merv Griffen toward Conyay West and asks, “What do you think yo mama would say [about your behavior at the Grammy awards]?” I wanted to vomit. How self-servingly phony can the guy get!
Leno would have been much better served by going to ABC. He could readily best old-man Letterman and Red-Skelton incarnation (“I dood it!”) O’Brien.
This is the end of late-night tv: Conehead stinks, Letterman stinks more than the pH of an old man’s urine and Nightline is completely out of place at 11:35. People want to relax, to laugh, to feel good before the go to sleep to face another day at the rat races. None of these losers deserve our patronidge. Watch at your own peril.
i only watched 10 minutes of it today, couldn’t continue watching
i’m sad to say that i liked his old format better
i say give him a chance to settle in to his new place, he’ll figure something out, he’s not stupid
Rickleeland, I agree – some “Ed Sullivan” elements are just what the show needs
Actually anybody who thinks numbers for the Jay Leno show can be determined now, or even a month from now, just havent followed his career with NBC. If you go way back, between the fireworks that was being fought for “The Tonight Show” and the battle for late night between, Jay, and Dave, it took quite a while to settle who would come out in first. Indeed, Daves numbers looked pretty good at first, only to have Jay slowly but surely take over that time slot. Although prime time generally doesnt allow for ratings to develop, it may with Jays show because of the cost involved and how much the company makes off of each show. Then, should Jay start catching on like he did in late night, then he may have that 10/9 pm slot for a long time to come. It took years for him to lock up the late night time slot. And how well his show will do wont be figured out in weeks or months and to suggest so, isnt taking history into account, And with all the things this show has going for it, (cost, ability to make money) it just may surprise many.