With shows with less than stellar ratings, fans always are more interested in DVR numbers. That’s especially the case with Dollhouse because it derives a high percentage of its total viewing from DVR viewers. Plus, FOX execs are on record talking about Dollhouse’s DVR numbers.
I know many of you aren’t going to want to wait more than 2 weeks to see what Dollhouse’s DVR viewing was for last night when a week’s worth of DVR viewing is included. Unfortunately, we have to wait over two weeks. But in the meanwhile, I did some simple projections based on last year’s averages.
What’s in the table? (Short Version)
The table projects DVR increases for the Friday, September 25, 2009 season premiere of Dollhouse based on season one averages. Based on that projection, the episode will wind up with about 3.23 million viewers and a 1.4 (rounded) adults 18-49 rating when a full week of DVR viewing is factored in.
| Dollhouse | L+SD Viewers (millions) | L+7 Viewers (millions) | L+7 vs L+SD | L+SD 18-49 | L+7 18-49 | L+7 vs L+SD2 |
| Season 1 Average | 3.72 | 4.70 | 26% | 1.46 | 2.00 | 37% |
| 9/25/2009 Actual (preliminary) | 2.56 | ? | ? | 1.00 | ? | ? |
| 9/25/2009 projected | 2.56 | 3.23 | 26% | 1.00 | 1.37 | 37% |
| 9/25/2009 projection vs. average | -31% | -31% | - | -32% | -32% | - |
L+SD = Live plus same day (up to 3am after the night the show aired) DVR viewing. L+7 = full week of DVR viewing. L+7 vs. L+SD = the percentage gain over L+SD with a full week’s DVR viewing.
What’s in the table? (Long Version) and what does it mean in terms of the show’s prospects?
The first line represents the averages for season one, taking into account all 12 episodes that aired. The second line was the actual preliminary numbers that we saw for Friday night. They could definitely change in the final numbers, but we won’t see those until at Monday at the earliest or Tuesday at the latest. The third line is projection of DVR #s based on the average increases due to DVR viewing in season one.
Kevin Reilly is often cited about the time he talked about how much he liked the average numbers for Dollhouse’s first season, especially when it came to DVR increases. The problem is, that averaged was arrived at with a 2.0 adults L+SD 18-49 rating in the premiere that ended with a 1.0 L+SD adults 18-49 rating in the finale.
Friday night’s numbers are not very different than the numbers for the season one finale. However, the season one finale was well below the season average for the show even though it was included in the average. While not much different than the season one finale, Friday night was ~31% worse than the first season’s average, even when projecting the DVR numbers in. And the 18-49 numbers are down 50% from the season one premiere (or the season one premier did 100% better in 18-49 ratings, depending on how you want to look at it).
By comparison, Ghost Whisperer was down 12% from its last year’s season premiere.
Those metrics will not go unnoticed by the brass at FOX. How they feel about them, well that’s a topic for speculative debate. I don’t think it’s too speculative to think they want to see how it does next week. 
A note on LIVE vs LIVE+SD and significant digits
Readers with good memories might ask, “Hey, WTF!? 26% increase in viewers and a 37% gain in 18-49? I heard numbers like 48% and 68%!”
Indeed, those were the increases over live viewing. But we never report live numbers and neither does anyone else. Not in the overnights, and not in the weekly numbers. We only ever even SEE those numbers anymore in the context of figuring out the total DVR viewing. But some of the DVR viewing happens during the same night, and is already included in the overnight and weekly national numbers we (and everybody else) report. So, I focus on the increases over those numbers, because those are the numbers everyone sees.
I can’t tell you how many people watched live last night, and I can’t tell you how many will watch on DVR during the first week, but I can tell you that last year, for season one, Dollhouse averaged 1.519 million DVR viewers per week, but out of the 1.519 million, on average, 540,000 of them watched it on DVR the same night (would’ve been included in the preliminary overnight and final national numbers).
As for the significant digits, for the season averages I saw ratings points out to one hundredths. That’s not something we ever see for the overnight numbers, and we don’t see those numbers regularly. Dollhouse’s 1.0 adults 18-49 rating on Friday (which could change in the final numbers) could’ve been a .96 or a 1.04 so the comparisons will be off in the range of ~4% just due to that.
what about smallville i know my sister watched ghost whispher but taped smallville i hope some other people did the same.smallville is a great show
Charlene, you can’t really compare last year’s Smallville DVR numbers to what they may be this year. It was on a different night, so one would presume it will have a different percentage of DVR watching.
Umm, Guys, a suggestion:
The numbers for Dollhouse during TSCC’s run and after are markedly different. The ratings now seem to match how the show ended last season. Perhaps that would give the most accurate assessment for any guess? Although, if I remember right the numbers of DVR viewers didn’t change much.
Still, it’s pretty much showing the same ratings as last season. Why would anyone expect anything different on the same night at the same time?
Why would everyone expect anything different on the same night at the same time?
Probably because the fans would have you believe there’s a slow build coming, bolstered by the fact that 1.) Hulu and other streaming services are a big factor and 2.) now that there are DVDs, people will want to jump on board no matter when it was showing (which, if it were a really good show, it would be appointment TV).
“Why would everyone expect anything different on the same night at the same time?”
“Probably because the fans would have you believe there’s a slow build coming, bolstered by the fact that 1.) Hulu and other streaming services are a big factor and 2.) now that there are DVDs, people will want to jump on board no matter when it was showing (which, if it were a really good show, it would be appointment TV).”
Seriously there will never be a “slow build” for this show…it’s spiraling down the drain and will soon be forgotten…heck it may not even survive season 2.
Comments like Liza’s above makes me wonder if there’s ever a point where fans of these types of shows (low rated with a rabid fan base) give up. Because you can’t argue Dollhouse hasn’t been given a chance. It’s been given several chances. It’s been given every possible chance and then some (I’m not sure I can think of a show that’s gotten more media coverage). Yet despite all that it’s ratings have continued to fall fairly consistently. Even from the Season Finale last season to the Season Opener this season (which is odd since Season Openers tend to get a ratings bump)
I just don’t understand how you could possibly believe this show is going to go up in the ratings after all that.
Tom,
If the Friday numbers for Dollhouse follow the “bump” trend you mentioned…. I’d say Dollhouse is probably screwed.
Sad, because I like the show. Hopefully they’ll let them finish up the first 13, and they can wrap things up as best they can in the remaining episodes…
More like they get 13 episodes and that’s it.
Actually, these fans would argue that giving the show a chance means putting on a night where people would actually watch it, like someplace other than Fridays. There’s a reason the 18-49 demos are so low that night, even with CBS getting millions of viewers: because if you’re single or even married without children, you go out on Fridays.
Well, those are the target demos for any SCI-FI show, and they’re out on the town instead of inside. Anyone who would actually watch the show doesn’t.
@The_GodfatherSJP – That would make sense if the numbers were low but Dollhouse was winning in the 18-49 category. But it’s coming in 4th in the 18-49 meaning even those young people who are home aren’t watching.
Also, the argument breaks down when you look at DVR numbers. If the problem was just the timeslot than the Live+7 numbers would be through the roof. But it doesn’t look like that’s going to be a case.
Finally, on the Sci-Fi angel, Eureka and Battlestar Gallactica before it managed to pull as many total viewers per week and they’re on Cable. When a show on a mainstream network can’t pull in more than a cable show that says something (Also, Star Trek: Enterprise managed to pull in more average viewers on UPN when it was on Fridays)
Not to mention how it has not once stopped losing viewers week to week. People who were once home and game enough to watch Dollhouse now watch repeats on ABC or cable or nothing or apparently go out just to get away from the horrible TV options. At the very least not a good sign, that.
Tom, unless you’re the CW. This is business as usual for them…
There is, of course, no correlation between ratings and poll numbers and aesthetic quality and reality. This lack of correlation has been known for some time. Proof? Significant numbers of Americans believed that Iraq was a threat to the US (one of the greatest howlers of all time), believe that the health care reform bill (there are actually several) mandates Nazi-Socialist death panels (a rather bizarre bricolage), don’t read James Joyce, don’t listen to Beethoven, and watched Friends. And oh yes, statistics simply measure social and cultural constructions and postulants of the cult of statistics don’t seem to be interested in how reality is socially and culturally constructed.
One can, I suppose, ask people why they go out on Friday nights. Here is a bit of anecdotal evidence. I go to the 7:30 New York State Writers Institute Film Series on Friday night. Why? The Writers Institute films are a one shot (unless I want to buy the DVD), they are free, and I can watch TV shows on hulu. I suspect I am not alone in doing this or doing something like this. But hey idizz don’t let me keep you from offering problematic generalisations thanks to naive hypotheses and a lack of hard evidence.
I am curious to see if the SGU premier on SyFy this Friday will erode the Dollhouse viewership further. It has been heavily promoted and I think quite a few of the people who might have watched DH will tune into that show instead.
Isn’t this a good case for truth?
NO ONE CAN TELL HOW MANY PEOPLE WATCHED.
If they embraced the internet, counting torrents and/or direct downloads, they would know, almost-exactly. As it is, some guy working for ONE COMPANY decides to go to the bathroom instead of watching the show opposite Dollhouse, and millions of numbers are lost.
Can we get more serious about TV and the internet yet? What’s it take- a guy cutting torrents for a whole network, and the space to make them available to PirateBay?
I’ll be so annoyed that dithering over algorythms will kill YET ANOTHER favorite show of mine.
Ultimately, the Networks can kill any show irregardless of ratings. They have the controls on ratings and scheduling. Dollhouse would probably double it’s viewer ratings if it changed schedules with the new “sap fest” Glee.
Brian Fahrlander, you gotta look at it from the perspective of the studios. No one gives a sh!t if it is popular on torrent sites or by direct download. The whole point is to be able to show ads to the viewers. Ads during the live airings and merchandise sales are the only thing that keep TV shows around. If people only watch through torrents, then FOX gets no recorded viewership and they shut down the show for one where a decent amount of people will watch live. If you do use torrents, then go and buy the season 1 DVD cause this show definitely needs it.