Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season:
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Castle (p) | 0.69 |
| the forgotten (p) | 0.78 |
| Eastwick | 0.90 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S) | 0.90 |
| FlashForward | 1.20 |
| Modern Family | 1.26 |
| Cougar Town | 1.32 |
| Desperate Housewives | 1.41 |
| Grey’s Anatomy | 2.01 |
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In May, Castle was on the bubble for renewal, now it’s in the crosshairs for cancellation. It was the worst performing scripted show for ABC during premiere week this season. the forgotten is also at significant risk for being canceled by the end of the season based on its first week’s results. And a lot can happen between now and May, but fans of Eastwick and Brothers & Sisters might not want to make any multi-year viewing plans either.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday’s have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:
- (p) – Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Wow. Didn’t expect Castle to be lower than the forgotten.
I think “The Forgotten” will be right there with “Castle” after its second episode.
I’d like to disagree, but after seeing the last two episodes it’s predicted fate is not far-fetched. =( Not that I won’t continue supporting the show as much as I can.
Is this the new format? No 18-49 average listed whatsoever? /shakes fist at Nielsen
It is early, but:
A) Eastwick had terrible decay inside the hour. Not a good sign.
B) Forgotten also decayed during hour, but less.
I wouldn’t put money on either making it to 2010. Castle, on the other hand, just might, as its ratings are stable (albeit low).
?(p) – Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
LOL! Worst Week and 11th Hour’s cancelations convinced you, didn’t they
Is “the forgotten” really officially spelled that way? Ugh.
Holly, pummeling Bill in October, November, December, and January, didn’t produce much change, but I’m pretty sure by February or March he was on the plum timeslot bandwagon
@Tom, others, yes, the 18-49 ratings numbers have been removed. This way all the posts for the season can be browsed. If we kept the Nielsen ratings in the posts themselves, we’d have to limit browsing to 2 weeks worth.
Holly, “LOL! Worst Week and 11th Hour’s cancelations convinced you, didn’t they”
I am not immune to learning. Resistant, yes, immune, no.
So, why haven’t we heard from Phisher yet? Isn’t that Nathan Fillion’s biggest fan?
***Runs and turns off the Sarcasm***
Poor Nathan Filion… Great actor, but keeps getting cancelled
Isn’t it a little early to tell for some of those shows? Flash Forward, Cougartown, and Modern Family have only aired a single episode.
Castle has aired more than a few though, so predictions about that one are probably kosher. Poor Fillion. I want him to do well in his career but on the other hand, Castle really wasn’t that good.
the Firefly cast sure is cursed i mean Gina Torres alone took three ABC shows down last season guesting on Dirty sEXY MONEY, PUSHING DAISIES and Eli Stone this season she’s already booked on Gossip Girl and FlashForward
Ugh! All ABC’s 10pm shows Sun – Wed are at the bottom (well I guess top) of the list! The only one not there is Thursday’s Practice and that hasn’t premiered yet! Friday is already a news magazine and Saturday football, so they have nothing scripted working out at 10. I think alternating 20/20 and Primetime might be all they go with at 10 next fall and maybe leave Thursdays alone. Unless they have better luck at midseason it could happen – wouldn’t shock me.
Brothers & Sisters I think will be ok for one more year though – ABC’s overall average should drop after this week with less DWTS and Grey’s, so even if B&S ratings hold they should bump up a little relative to the other shows. Eastwick I think will slide into the red zone in a week or two.
one showing and Brother and Sisters are already red? there is always hope that it comes back to life
I would have been shocked with castle but after last nights show I’m not. It just didn’t seem like castle last night. I just hope some how they can pull up the ratings and stay on as I think it can be a very good show. The forgotten I thought was a fresher type of show in there week. Fresh seems to kill a series if they won’t stick by it and give it a little time.
hmmmmm
not counting saturday night football or 20/20
that’s 4 out 5 of ABC’s 10pm slots
Hello Jimmy Kimmel at 10?! lol
@ usedtolovecoco, Early predictions ‘R Us, but ratings and the Indexes change, come back and see each week’s numbers!
Come on Debbie Downers. Castle’s not gone yet. There’s such worse shows on TV, sad it hasn’t found an audience yet … but we can still hope.
all of these spins are making me ill and thats why i dont know what to watch anymore
@cocoabeans68, last night’s episode of Castle was one of the best so far. I really liked what they did to break up the tired procedural format, and it had plenty of funny. It’s still one of the few shows I activelly anticipate every week.
@ Budo. I totally agree with you. Very fun show and I like the increased chemistry between Beckett and Castle.
Im confused robert u wrote that Castle did good in the ratings it got a 2.5 for the first half hour and 2.1 for the second half hour that did better then the first episode so how is it so low?
Also, I thought last night’s episode of castle was the funniest ever. I dont get it!?!?!
When they cancel Without a Trace to make room for Medium, it’s pretty obvious the inmates have taken control. Castle should get a 2-3 year run. It entertains. Grey’s Anatomy and Desperate Housewives, on the other hand, went off the tracks and should disappear so we can remember when they were better. Of course, I’m in the demography no one in the TV business wants: 45-70. I mean, our demography has a lot of spendable income and we tend to be the ones who actually stay home to watch TV instead of taping everything, so why should they care about us. Again, the highly paid executives making so many of the decisions ought to ‘watch’ TV now and then. Ah, that would make too much sense.
correction to my writing Castle got a 2.3/6 and thats good
@Justin, It’s not really that Castle did really bad, it;s that everything else did better.
o but i mean at that night Castle beat the jay leno show by alot nad got second place for its time so shouldnt it be in the danger zone with the ratings it got and the place behind and infront of other shows?
and* in front*
I still have hope here. Castle has two things going for it. First, assuming The Forgotten goes down in flames (almost certain since it’s debut was so low) Castle remains ABC’s sole procedural.
Second, the show has remained amazingly consistent audience wise (last nights show being only a tenth of a point below it’s season finale last year). The post-DWTS slot is clearly lost on it but a show that can carry a rabid fan base with it could be used by ABC to plug a time slot where 2.3 would be considered a victory (Friday perhaps)
Castle is slickly filmed but in the end the actors are still relatively unknown and the sets are pretty stock so the show can’t be that expensive to produce (cheaper than…say…Ugly Betty I’d assume)
@Justin, For nightly ratings, Castle is competing against Leno, but for renewal, it’s competing against the other shows on ABC. If it is the worst performing show on ABC, which last week it was, it doesn’t matter if it’s beating Leno.
CASTLE’S FIRST TWO SHOWS THIS SEASON WERE TERRIFIC. EVEN BETTER THAN LAST YEAR’S SHOWS.
IT’S FUNNY, INTERESTING AND GREAT TV. (so, of course, stupid networks –LIKE NBC … who’s announcing ITS newest GAME SHOW PRIME TIME SHOW: Perfect 10).
NETWORK TV is killing NETWORK TV.
NATHAN FILLION IS BRILLIANT AND FUNNY … ONE OF THE BEST ACTORS ON TELEVISION.
Psst…There seems to be something wrong with your Caps Lock button.
@Tom
Not really sure you can call Fillion unknown anymore, but other than him, you’re right.
are you sure monday and tuesday at 10 are plum timeslots this year? dwts is not doing too well…
@roy willard: “I mean, our demography has a lot of spendable income and we tend to be the ones who actually stay home to watch TV”
Err, that’s actually the problem. Because 50+s watch so many TV shows (compared to 18-49s), there is no premium involved with your eyeballs: I don’t need to advertise on Show A to reach you, because you also watch Show B, C, & D.
In other words, if you want to be respected… stop watching so much TV, just like youth.
In regards to Castle & Forgotten: First off, no one cares if you like the show or not, we’re simply looking at ratings. Second, per episode costs do matter. Forgotten is a WB/Bruckheimer production (and likely an expensive one at that). Castle is homemade at ABC. If the ratings are roughly equivalent, Forgotten will not get a backorder.
I fully expect Forgotten to air sometime in mid-late October in Castle’s slot, and that will decide the fate of the two shows.
Hmm Castle still had almost 10 million total viewers for the night..certainly nothing to sneeze at.
“Castle” should be aired at the earlier slot, as it is actually the show for the whole family. 10 PM is the wrong air time for it. ABC should think about it. It’s a great show, funny to watch, great chemistry between Stana and Nathan, yesterday’s episode was fan-frellin-tastic with great sense of humour. I really hope “Castle” survives.
^OK, what day?
@Dylan – You’re probably right. But I assume the advantage of being a “name star” is that your name will draw viewers. As someone who has had every show he’s starred in cancelled (sad but true) I’m not sure he could be considered a name star either
@Anthony – It’s numbers are around what it was getting last year and it was considered on the bubble then. And last year it wasn’t losing a huge chunk of it’s lead-in.
i hope castle is not castle is not cancelled i donot stay up for to many 1000 pm shows but i love this show.
I tend to believe that overall the new shows will fall more in their second weeks then the existing programs will and so I expect some of these positions to change in the next 1-2 weeks.
In theory the 10PM slot is the best place any struggling ABC should could go since they’ll only be up against CBS of course that hasn’t exactly worked out well for anything ABC has put on at 10 so far…
Personally if I were ABC I’d put Castle on Wednesday and move Eastwick to Monday. Again in theory Eastwick gels much more with the Dancing audience than Castle does and I think Castle fits much better with the Wednesday comedy block that ABC has 8-10 on Wednesday.
Isn’t this rather premature? Live very, very, very premature?
You’re saying that Castle is going to get cancelled on the basis of only one episode?
Things change once shows get undewway. The season opener of a show often isn’t reflective of the rest of the season. House, for example, did a road trip with only Hugh Laurie. Very good acting on his part and very high ratings. Once the show gets back to PPTH and the boring characters, ratings will fall as they did last year.
Kate, what the RCI says is that if today were May, here’s what would happen. But we all know it’s not May right now, so lots and lots can change. Eastwick and The Forgotten could crash and burn. Hank and The Middle could also contribute to dragging ABC’s average down. But that’s for psychics to guess, not for the RCI.
Kate, the index tracks the shows performance compared to other shows on the network for the entire season. If Castle’s numbers improve the index will reflect this. The index uses the 18-49 demo numbers and have proven to be pretty accurate. The Base line of 1.0 in the index is the networks average 18-49 Demo, and the number used for each show reflects it’s performance compared to the networks average. With Castle having a score of .69 in the index this means that Castle is only attracting 69% of ABC’s average 18-49 demo. So as it stands right now (and this could very likely change) Castle is ABC’s weakest show and as of right now the most likely to be canceled.
Also it is possible for Castle to keep the same ratings and move up on the index if ABC’s average Demo goes down. Only time will tell where it will end up by May.
Tommy, just to be clear that Castle is ABC’s weakest *scripted* show. Because Nielsen is no longer providing us with show by show Season to Date 18-49 Live+SD averages, and I am having to calculate them myself, I don’t have the time to calculate them for the unscripted shows this season.
I understand why it was on the bubble and why it is maybe in a worse spot now..doesn’t mean I have to like it. They should change the day and or time. Maybe even make it a summer show instead of during the heavy competition season. I think its a good show is all, there was a time when the networks would move shows to find a match. Especially when the show has somewhat of a following. 10 million viewers is still a decent amount of viewers so why not try it in some other slot?
Yeah I guess it would have been a good idea to make that clear.
Tommy, to expand on Bill’s comment:
Nielsen (and the networks usually) whenever reporting season-to-date information going forward will be reporting something called “Most Current” which is a blend of Live+7 data where available and live+SD where it isn’t. So. we are still getting S-T-D info, but as we near the end of the season it will almost (but not quite) be exclusively Live+7 data. We opted not to use that for the calculations to keep things as apples-to-apples as possible with last year.
ABC’s renew/cancel index really isn’t correct right now because multiple shows of their premiered amazing, but won’t stay up there, like Grey’s. Cougar Town. Modern Family. Desperate Housewives. even Eastwick.
so shows like Brothers & Sisters and Castle are drawn down because of these big premieres.
I think The Forgotten will do worse than Castle in a month at most. I try to watch Castle and the acting by Nathan Fillion and Stana Katic is really great, but the stories are so boring. It’s the second season and the writers still don’t know how to write a compelling episode.
Tony, as ever the index is as of a point in time in the season. These are point in time results after only the first week. Clearly the numbers will change and I’d expect some separation between say, Brothers & Sisters and the Forgotten. But it will be interesting to look back at the end of the season and see how much the relative list order changed.
i really doubt brothers and sisters is in danger of not being renewed for a 5th season. its cheap to produce. its an abc procution and its in its 4th season. abc is now working agressivly on sydcation for any show they can roll out. if ugly betty can get two deals it would seem to safe to think that brothers and sister will as well. the dvd sales of brothers and sisters also does oddly well at retail.
albeit a complete ratings fall from other seasons, it wont be canceled.
some people are being a bit too dramatic about its premiere numbers. it wasn’t that far off from its norm in seasons 1 or 2. season 3 ratings slowly climbed due to a highly serialized storyline, even then its rating didn’t hit a stride until late spring. the shows storyline operates like a day time soap.
eastwick, while i somewhat enjoyed the opening, IMO is doomed. So is forgotten, though i think abc will keep it for awhile. Castle i see getting worse, if abc wants to keep pushing it though, i dont know. flashforward will be an interesting one to watch. i have a feeling the show is going to end up tanking…
it seems like the best headway abc is going to make is with the comedy block. on the other hand they seriously need to get some new dramas going.
Housewives will do a great season but its heading for its 7th run and the show may be showing some serious signs of age this season. brothers and sisters is probably going to continue to fizzle a bit season to season. ugly betty, i cant see going past a 2011-12 season, even if it holds well on friday this season. lost is gone. leaving them only with greys for the long term…
Interesting. I think ABC is happy with Castle for the over 9 million viewers it brings in each week. Usually when they ran advertisements for how great their numbers were in the past they would leave out 18-49 low performers, but here is the info from your recent ABC post.
“Castle” (10:02-11:00 p.m.)
Producing its strongest “DWTS” retention ever, ABC’s “Castle” topped NBC’s “Jay Leno” by 3.7 million viewers (9.2 million vs. 5.5 million) and by 29% in Adults 18-49 (2.2/6 vs. 1.7/4).
* “Castle” was up from its week ago season premiere in Women 18-34 (2.1/6 vs. 2.0/6) and Women 18-49 (3.2/9 vs. 3.1/8).
I said that was the reason it didn’t get canceled last year and it may not this year. the forgotten is a different story.
Lizard
Brothers & Sisters will not be cancelled, despite not great retention its still doing OK.
Eastwick will be axed by January
The Forgotten will either be axed by January or get additional eps.
Castle could get a third year if it holds up well.
Flashforward, Modern Family and Cougar Town are all safe.
Bill, could you please tell me where can I find the final numbers for Friday (I already have the ones for Dollhouse, but I would like to see other shows too) and Sunday please?
The appeal of DWTS and Castle makes each show attract very different viewers (not just by age). The vast numbers that watch a flashy, showy, musical show are not typically going to be interested in a darker police drama. DWTS is a terrible lead in for Castle (not sure what show would be ideal after DWTS, though–excpt maybe FOX’s Glee.) Therefore Castle has to “earn” its viewers on its own merit. A tall order.
Castle is much improved this season and should build an audience. Also it does come out of ABC Studios, so the network is looking at more than ad revenues.
Castle I hope will stick around, it depends how ABC’s other dramas do. Brothers & Sisters is exactly like Private Practice, no danger of being axed just because.
1. Both retain a good amount of their lead in
2. ABC has no other well performing dramas (besides Grey’s and Desperate, so they rely on those 2 to do OK.
With Lost and likely Ugly Betty ending in May, I dont see Brothers & Sisters leaving anytime soon.
I think Castle shall do great and I hear they have a really good halloween episode coming up. I think by the preview for the next episode it will be for women and men because men like to see really hot models and naked girls =) Women i think will like the clothes. And besides that the plot looks good and the characters look funnier then before.
Castle Season 2 episode 3 summary-
Castle and Beckett get an inside look at the cutthroat world of the New York fashion industry when they investigate the brutal murder of a young model during Fashion Week
Castle Season 2 episode 4 summary-When an Arctic explorer is killed during a polar expedition, the mysterious circumstances of his death take Castle and Beckett from the penthouses of Park Avenue to the halls of the CIA. But Castle’s delight at the case’s many twists and turns soon turns to frustration as he realizes that their elusive killer might just be fooling them all.
O i just thought of something if they had a really famous guest star that could help them lol
Here’s the only dramas I think will return in fall 2010 for ABC
Desperate Housewives
Grey’s Anatomy
Brothers & Sisters
Private Practice
Flashforward
Series that wont retrun inlcude
Lost
Ugly Betty (likely to end)
Eastwick
The Forgotten
Castle is 50/50 leaning toward a third year.
Copper, The Deep End, and Happy Town have 50/50 since they havent premiered yet.
This site was wrong about Castle last year, so forgive me if I have very little confidence in this “index”. It was also wrong about Better Off Ted and Scrubs, so the numbers do lie.
Castle’s ratings last night were actually up vs Boston Legal’s (final season) ratings in the same post Dancing with the Stars timeslot airing this week last season.
Im a huge Castle fan, I dont think they will cancel it. The fans that Castle does have are die hard and would do just about anything to keep the show on.
that is definitley WRONG, last year…
OH, Castle probably gone…. still here
Oh, no way gary unmarried is coming back… still here
Oh, Dollhouse, a goner… still here
over the past 2 years of following this site, ive learned a thing or two, and one of them is the renew/cancel index is usually never on the ball
if u wish me to continue…
Old Christine, probably not…still here
Scrubs, no way… still here
Better off Ted will get cancelled… still here
i believe i have proved my point,
Thank You
Still, Bob, accuracy aside the index does show a notable correlation and it’s also just plain fun for number geeks.
I’m glad to have it back.
Drew, historically the index has been extremely accurate. Particularly with hour long scripted shows. About the only case of an outright fail is Dollhouse. These are all done “point in time” through whatever point in time in the season we are. Castle’s number stabilized and even improved during its run last year, and as that happened, its index changed.
It’s not particularly good at predicting the fate of mediocre performing 30 minute sitcoms (though very accurate with hugely under performing ones). We could limit all the point in time bickering nonsense by only producing one index very near the end of the season, but what fun would that be?
I hope ABC will have two or more hits from their new shows, they seriously need it as they can’t rely on DH, GH, and DWTS that much anymore.
I kinda like Eastwick, well the pilot is so-so but the premise, if they execute it well, is good escapism TV which could gain viewers in the long run but then I’m not holding my breath for that one to last though.
Ah Brothers and Sisters, last season’s writing have hurt this show a lot. I was actually hoping that they could gain ground in the ratings so that ABC could schedule them on another night but base from the ratings decline, moving it from the post-DH would instantly kill it.
@bob:
Except for some exceptions, the Index was EXTREMELY accurate last year. The Index can’t take EVERYTHING into account.
HEY IM BACK!
Do you have the ratings for the brady bunch yet? (Rhetorical question)
No need wasting your time on me if you dont, but maybe if you have it from Monday? Can we see them
Thanks.
I think Castle will hold it’s own in numbers and The Forgotten and
Eastwick will slide. This should make Castle in a safer zone
than it is at present. I also think that one or more of the 2010
shows mentioned above (Copper, The Deep End, and Happy Town) will
do poorly and have numbers below Castle.
Why is Castle the headliner again? There are other shows that performed well under it yet you continue to run with Castle as the show most likely canceled? Same as last year. I don’t get it but oh well.
Nathan Fillion said on a radio interview this morning that they wouldn’t know whether ABC would pick the show up for the rest of the season for a couple months so production wouldn’t get interrupted.
While that doesn’t mean ABC won’t shuffle it or pull it for a bit it at least shows they’re not ready to stick a fork in it right now.
Lee, there were no other scripted shows on ABC that performed under it last week.
Speaking as someone who gave up on this show after last season, even I think the cancellation talk may be a little premature for now. But I do think that if any of ABC’s other shows are remotely hits, Castle won’t be getting its backorder. The only reason it got renewed last season was because ABC’s other new dramas tanked right out of the gate and because ABC seems so desperate for a crime procedural.
It’s like I kept saying over the summer – the best thing ABC can do to get the show to work is try to make the show stronger, not resort to silly gimmicks like the Castle novel idea. No one cares if “Richard Castle” “wrote” a novel. But people do care about good crime stories and Castle isn’t delivering those. I still say they ought to bring on Stephen Cannell as showrunner and get rid of the guy who wrote the cinematic masterpiece that is Hollow Man [/sarcasm].
Lee – ABC wouldnt move any shows around. NBC would move a lower rated drama to saturdays, FOX would either leave a drama where it is or move it to fridays if ratings lowered, and CBS would just cancel a drama and never return it. But ABC is most liekly to keep a series in the same slot until at least May. Last year ABC kept sophomore dramas (Eli Stone, Pushing Daisies, and Dirty Sexy Money) in their respective slots until December despite axing the trio in November.
Castle, The Forgotten and Eastwick will be kept in their slots until likely December. If any were to be pulled, the earliest would be November and it would be Eastwick. The series are doing well enough so far to not be pulled but ABC needs to make firm decisions about what they want for midseason. If the three dramas do better than last year’s dramas in the slots, they may be kept longer.
Castle may be kept for a full season just because numbers are consistent. (Boston Legal did pretty good last year but it didnt get the dancing benefit and it was the final season)
The Forgotten is 50/50, but may get additional eps. (Eli Stone did worse because it went against SVU and Without a Trace) Forgotten has a good chance though since it doesnt have competition.
Eastwick is expected to drop considerably with a lower rated lead in and CSI NY competition. (Dirty Sexy Money premiered worse last year but Money didnt have a boosted Comedy lead in)
Id expect all 3 to stay in their slots until December (Eastwick, may be pulled in November)
Shelly – I think Castle may still be kept because ABC has no new dramas. Besides the full season likely hood of Flashforward. Castle’s success depends on how Eastwick and The Forgotten perform. With Castle likely doing better than both, theres no reason ABC wouldnt want to renew Castle.
Julia, I was talking about all the networks not just ABC exclusively. Sorry. I just find it funny that Castle is always the headliner when it comes to this index thing.
I agree with others that believe Castle’s fate depends on how well The Forgotten and Eastwick hold up though.
It’s early and things can change in the next few weeks.
Numbers will liekly go down for all 3 dramas but a lot of factors will determine whether or not ABC will keep each series.
Castle fills a niche that ABC greatly needs: a show that’s not a soap and can be rerun. While it’s not getting great ratings just yet, it’s obvious to anyone watching it that it is doing well creatively and I am sure word of mouth will spread and if given a chance the numbers will rise over time.
Let’s remember that those cable shows we were talking about this summer that are doing well like burn notice and psych were given several season to build their audiences. If a show is working creatively and not hugely expensive, it’s counter productive to not give it a big long chance to succeed.
So it comes down to: are the ABC execs short term minded idiots or not? I’ll be charitable and guess not. I’m fairly confident Castle will be around for several more years.
Does anyone know how many episodes were ordered for this season of “Castle?” 13 or 22? Because that would seem to play a role in it’s possible renewal or cancellation.
Jason – Castle initially has an order of 13 episodes. (Usually all sophomore dramas get 13 eps) Once ABC sees how the series performs they will make a final decision (probably November at the latest). If Castle does well it will get 22 eps, if it doesnt than it will end after 13. My bet is that it will get a full year.
Castle is a fantastic show. They surely cant cancel it. Give it a few weeks yet.
I believe that Castle, being one of the few dramas that do well, will get a full year. In terms of how dramas do here’s the list from ABC’s best to worst performing dramas so far.
Grey’s Anatomy 15-18 million
Desperate Housewives 13-14 million
Private Practice 10-12 million
Brothers & Sisters 9-11 million
Flashforward 10-12 million
Castle 8-10 million (expected over time)
The Forgotten 7-9 million (expected over time)
Ugly Betty 5-7 million (expected over time)
Eastwick 4-6 million (expected over time)
Besides the top 4 veterans, as well as Ugly Betty, So far only Flashforward would seem to do better than Castle. Ugly Betty is expected to get around 5-7 million fridays. Again, Castle getting a full year depends a lot on how Eastwick and The Forgotten perform and since I expect Castle to do the best, it wil likely get a full year.
Midseason renewal What About Brian aired in the monday 10pm slot from 2006-2007. It got a full year but didnt perform great. Another midseason renewal October Road performed like garbage in the 10pm monday slot too. The 10pm monday slot was used last season for Boston Legal’s final season. Castle is the only drama to actually air mondays directly after dancing (no comedy at 9:30), so it has an advantage.
Chief says:
“Is ‘the forgotten’ really officially spelled that way? Ugh.”
Spelled? Yes. Capitalized? Not in conventionally edited prose. The all-lowercase routine is simply a logo and requires no typographical respect. Better to muse on the fact that Harry Truman’s middle “name” really was ‘S’.
Doesn’t Castle already have a significant advantage of getting a full season being an ABC Studios production and not being serialized? I know Eastwick and the forgotten are both WB productions, which automatically being scrutiny.
Don J – Being an ABC produced series on their network does have an advantage over being a WB produced series, but numbers still have to be good. New episodes are likely cheaper though, and not being serialized has its advantages.
Castle is my favorite show on primetime currently. I hope that it is renewed. I also hoped that the numbers looked better. In my opinion, 10pm is too late to air it. It’s a G-rated show and should be aired at either 8 or 9pm. I also believe that it would do better aired with comedies. As for the new shows like Eastwick, I don’t believe that any real conclusions can be made after 1 or 2 episodes. A lot of people will tune into a new show that has a lot of hype to check it out but that doesn’t mean they like it or will tune into the 2nd or 3rd episode.
The RCI now is like looking at league standings after the first game or two. Both can and will change by season’s end but seeing the trends–downward and upward–is fun.
I really hope that Castle sticks around. I’m liking this season.
IDK about Castle being so directly in competition with The Forgotten. ABC has a bunch of stuff still coming that they seem to actually have some hopes for (V, Happy Town) as well as the usual midseason fare (unnumbered comedies, The Bachelor, etc). Plus right now their new shows are still doing a hell of a lot better than new stuff did last year, so how desperate do we really think they are? They already desperately bet on it once, I doubt they’ll renew it again if it stays towards the bottom of their scripted shows, because at some point even ABC will give up hope that it can catch on.
The forgotten is horrible…. it’s like CSI without the CSI.
The characters aren’t interesting in the least.
Castle is the one show I wait for every week! Its got great chemistry, characers, and is just fun to watch. I do think the 10pm time slot isn’t doing it any favors though. It feels like more of a 8pm or 9pm show. I’m really pulling for ABC to give this one a chance.
ABC can’t be happy with a 2.3 demo but I doubt it is ‘very’ upset with an audience of 9.5 million. I suspect your prediction chart might have much more relevance if we were into week 5 or 6 and Castle’s demo was under 2 with audience around 8 mil. Then, I would be really concerned about its future. For now, based upon everything have read, 13 shows is a lock – whether it gets any additional episodes is up to the viewers.
For the record, with only 2 weeks into a new season, I really think these predictions are a waste of time: there remains way too much volatility in viewership for anything substantive to be gained.
The forgotten is already FORGOTTEN!
I love castle, I hope they don’t cancel it.
Put it this way, If all three 10pm series (Castle, The Forgotten, Eastwick) do better than last years averages (and they probably will) than ABC will make their decision on whether or not to renew the series based on that. I still believe
Flashforward will get a full year
Castle will get a full year
The Forgotten is 50/50, may get additional eps or get axed
Eastwick will likely be the first drama axed
Castle is one of the worst shows on television (and has about the dumbest fans this side of Dollhouse). Fillion is simply the worst thing that has ever been on television, period.
ABC loses money every single time Castle airs. It gave the show every possible chance to find a large enough audience.
Once DWTS isn’t there to back it up, it’s going to drop to a series low. And that’s going to be it.
I don’t know if being after DWTS is such a Plum Timeslot. What 1 hour show given the after DWTS (Monday or Tuesday) timeslot has lasted? It just shows that people who watch DWTS don’t care what is afterwords (I don’t count the 30 minute comedies since most shows are 1 hour, what else can they flip to?). I bet many of the viewers of Castle don’t even watch DWTS. I think the same can be said about the after Top Model timeslot. Nothing seems to survive there (although that may be the bad programming and not the timeslot)
Robert and Bill – If you based Brothers & Sisters on the index, you would be right. But come on. At least 1 of you has to think due to ABC’s lack of dramas that this veteran drama has a good chance of returning (especially with Lost ending, and Ugly Betty likely ending).
Those of you who are complaining that Castle is on too late are forgetting something: it can’t be on any earlier, at least on Mondays, unless ABC decides to cut down DWTS to an hourlong show (which it won’t). And moving Castle to a different night means it’ll follow a lower-rated show and get lower ratings as a result.
And SLP, there’s is definitely some spillover audience from DWTS into Castle’s audience. I’m not saying every person who watches DWTS tunes into Castle but there are definitely some who just don’t change the channel and are casual watchers of the show. Just remember how much Castle dropped off last season when ABC put that horrible Saget sitcom in between DWTS and Castle, and how much Castle bounced back once ABC finally canned that sitcom and put Castle back right after DWTS.
If Casstle gets a full season, it will stay in its 10pm slot. Theres no way ABC would move it.
Maybe this question has been answered already, but why, after 2-3 weeks, are we already trying to figure out what is getting cancelled? Can we at least wait until December? BTW, I think the first half of Castle this past Monday was the best half-hour of a show that I’ve ever seen.
I know I’m a little late to this comments section… (was out of town camping!)
But!
I don’t understand why the ratings have dropped. This season is a lot better than the last season so far. It’s sexier, it’s funnier, it’s all around better.
I love the constant jibs at CSI type shows, and was laughing a lot at the “He also murdered the English language” comment… (I was an English major in college!).
I really hope this show survives. It’s one of the few I’m forced to watch w/ my girlfriend that I actually LOVE. (As opposed to Vampire Diaries, Glee, Grey’s Anatomy… please shoot me.)
CP – Shows have to get axed, so were trying to figure it out now, so people wont stick with shows that are likely to fail. All 3 10pm series will last until December, ABC wont schedule repeats in nthe slots unless ratings are absolutely horrible. The worst performing 10pm series is likely Eastwick over time.
CP, “We” are doing it after one week (the season officially began on Sept. 21). And we will continue to do so all season until next year’s schedules are announced in May. As for it being too early, past results indicate that it generally isn’t.
To Dan:
The only problem is that I don’t think anyone on this site (and I could be wrong) has control over what gets cancelled and what stays. Just look at Dollhouse. With the numbers and the fact that its ridiculous, I would’ve cancelled it after 2 episodes.
To Bill, I believe you, I just don’t think its fair to doom a show after only a week or two unless it just absolutely tanks.
Brothers & Sisters is in no real danger as long as it rides the success of Desperate Housewives.
CP – I dont have control over what gets axed no one except the network does (obviously). However I’m making my best guess on what will happen based on rating trends, and how the series fared in last years timeslots. As well as the amount of series that ABC has for midseason.
CP, we don’t do the dooming, we just do the predicting.
In that case, is anyone with me on a “Save Castle” campaign?
I was starting to like this show even if its basically a ripoff of Bones
I dont think Castle needs saving. If its consistent and doesnt go down too much, and does better than The Forgotten and Eastwick, it will get a full year. ABC’s in desperation of dramas.
I find it amusing that this site can be right 999 times about cancellations and renewals, but they were wrong with Dollhouse…
So now every time a show is predicted to be cancelled, people will toss out the “BS it will be… You said the same about Dollhouse!”
Eric,
Dollhouse will be gone after the end of this year, they’re just delyaing the inevitable.
CP – I used that exact “delaying the inevitable” when Dollhouse was renewed. Your right. Even if Dollhouse is pulled and promised to return later, it would just be delaying the inevitable. Atleast FOX will make $$$ off the DVD release.
The problem with the shows premiering after DWTS is that they’re bad. Period. They’re failing because they suck, and not enough people want to watch them. Castle is failing worst of all, which is why it’s in the crosshairs.
What’s really funny is that the people screaming that Castle is being hurt by DWTS would scream even louder if ABC moved it away from DWTS. It’s a hard world for Fillion fans.
Dollhouse has not done well on DVD at all. And the network doesn’t get one dime of the DVD money anyway. So that excuse really has to be retired.
They kept it on in order to be able to say “We gave it a chance.”
And those who said “Hey, just give it a chance and we’ll be satisfied” were lying.
Of course.
Pisher – While no 10pm monday dramas aired directly after Dancing, Samantha Who did for the past 2 years, and on its own it bombed. Castle has an advantage and hopefully ABC will give it a full chance. I mean unlike the 2006-2007 and the 2007-2008 seasons which had 4 sophomore dramas renewed a piece (Ugly Betty, Brothers & Sisters, Men in Trees, October Road) and (Pushing Daisies, Private Practice, Dirty Sexy Money, Eli Stone), Castle is the only drama renewed (out of 4). Being the only sophomore drama, ABC isnt as likely to give up on it.
How has Dollhouse done by the way DVD wise? And while FOX network dosent get any money, FOX studios does if the DVD sells well. (Why do you think Family Guy was brought back). House and Fringe are produced by Universal and WB so FOX wouldnt make $$ off those shows.
I’m glad someone agrees with me Dan. And to be funny like Castle you said “Your right”. It should be “you’re right”. You’re murdering the English language!
Just thought that was funny to point out.
CASTLE is brilliant. it just needs a better time-slot. did they not see how well DVD pre-orders and sales were going? and the HEAT WAVE book is hot on the shelves right now. Please, ABC…don’t screw yourself by canceling Castle…
was that the first “Please ABC, don’t cancel Castle” of the season?
It certainly won’t be the last.
I am already on record with Robert that “Castle” will be this fall’s “Pushing Daisies” in terms of fan weeping and wailing. Take that to the bank, baby.
Castle is excellent television. Nathan Fillion is the créme de la créme of actors. He is supremely gifted in both drama and comedy. He’s sexy-hot-mess-gorgeous, and as bright and clever as can be. ABC has got to be smart enough to realize what a gold mine they have in him. I hope they do. Castle can rise above this and succeed! It’s got the goods!
I don’t live in the USA but I watch Castle. I think that’s a wonderful show that should be preserved for more seasons. The cast is great and it has history for all members of the family. I haven’t had the opportunity to watch the new 2nd season episodes but from what I heard they were great.
I don’t know much thing about American television but I don’t think that watching people dancing is a family show. Castle should be a after dinner show.
Personally I hope that ABC is smart enough to take ALL the numbers into account including TiVO/DVR and online viewings both on their own website and Hulu. If these are good enough for them then they won’t let this great show die. Plus, there is the “Nikki Heat” novel coming out this week, so perhaps the new viewers are going to join soon.
And pisher, why exactly do you hate “Castle” and Nathan so much? If it’s not your cup of tea, then simply don’t watch it. Nobody is forcing you to do that.
I meant “Heat Wave” of course…
Castle is a great show with awesome writing and acting together.. The storyline for the show is creative and the chemistry is great.. Wish people would start to realize that.. just watch the first season and you can’t tell me you don’t fall in love with it unless crime fighting/comedy is not your style
I loved Eastwick. And I like Castle. I hope they both stay.
Robert and Bill, how do you think the cancellation will go down? My guess is that ABC will let the 13 episodes air and then not pick up any more without making a single peep about the show being cancelled.
Robert and Bill – The difference between Castle and Pushing Daisies is that Pushing Daisies never got above 6 million and was consistently dropping. If Castle stays consistent, I believe it will get a full year. If Eastwick and forgotten continue going down that gives Castle a better chance to get a full year. Also last year ABC only had 1 fall drama and 4 returning sophomore dramas. Only the new fall drama and 1 returning drama got a full year. This year they have 1 returning sophomore drama and 4 new fall dramas. With Flashforward getting a full year, I think Castle has a good chance of getting a full year. ABC wouldnt axe their ONLY returning new drama from last year.
Shelly – My guess is
Flashforward will get a full season within the month
Castle will get a full season around November
Eastwick will be axed in November but most of the episodes will continue to air throughout December
The Forgotten will air through December but end after 13 episodes.
Castle is an amazing show! no stupid unnecessary drama, no idiot annoying characters, well scripted, intriguing, and of course, it has Nathan Fillion
. I just can’t bare to see another one of his shows get cancelled, he’s a brilliant actor and this show deserves to keep going for at least a few more seasons… i mean, we’re only just getting into it!
Everyone thought it woould be axed for some reason after last season, but I knew ABC would keep it.
The Castle fans remind me of the Pushing Daisies, and Dirty Sexy Money fans last Season. Then it was also evident that the shows were under performing by the first week.
Yet they argued that the shows would not be canceled because:
-They had critical acclaim
-It was too soon to make predictions
-They had high income viewers.
It really is quite pointless to argue with fans in denial. From last year’s experience even when they were yanked from the schedule, and no more episodes were ordered, there were people that were able to convince themselves that they would return for a 3rd season…
When they were canceled they accused the promo department. Before the Castle fans even think of that one. Castle, of the returning shows, was the third getting more promotion, behind only GA, and DH. Promotion that started simultaneously with the new shows. B&S that performed better where it matters, in the demo, only started being promoted 2 weeks after they started promotion Castle.
Well said S…. Castle fans will come up with every reason why the show won’t be canceled and ignore the only reason that it should be. It’s too early to make any calls yet on what’s going to get canceled but the outlook for Castle isn’t good coming out of the gate. The arguement that ABC won’t cancel it’s only returning drama from last year is at best weak. I have yet to see an example of when ABC, or any other network for that matter, kept a sophomore show just because it was the only new show that was carried over from the year before. Have they kept poor performing shows in the past? Yes, but they had other reasons for doing so other then it being the only returning show. I can see Castle losing it’s post DWTS time slot and one of the new dramas moving there to see how well they might do in the slot instead. Also I don’t see Castle’s fate tied to the forgotten’s and Eastwick’s. That arguement made more sense last year when ABC was looking for 1 freshman series to carry over. If anything I can see ABC giving the new shows more time to improve and letting Castle go.
@ S. Did those shows really have significantly more high income viewers? It starts to seem to me that this is getting a new thing to claim about a failing show. Where is that data even coming from?
Only once did I read an article about high income demos and according to it back then (about two years ago) the shows doing noteably better in them were Boston Legal and 30 Rock, so seeing how ABC and NBC treated those respectively (basically opposite extremes), this could still be an argument for just about anything.
Castle is GREAT. Am not a fan of the 10 PM time slot, however. This is a show that families could enjoy if it were on a bit earlier. The murders are no more grizzly than those of Bones which is at an earlier time slot.
For some reason, advertisers mistakenly think the 18-49 years olds are more important than us older folks. Frankly, I’ve done over seas traveling, made major purchases in the past year (while everyone else was worrying about their jobs), etc. I think they make a big mistake if they underestimate our buying power and over estimate the 18-49 year olds. Just because it was that way previously, doesn’t mean it still is.
@Shirly Brown
Am not a fan of the 10 PM time slot, however. This is a show that families could enjoy if it were on a bit earlier.
OK, where would you put it?
I thought I read somewhere that Castle was keeping the 10pm slot because it was going to have more “bed room” scenes.
Or am I thinking of another show?
@Shirley Brown
Advertisers don’t over estimate the buying power of he A18-49. All demos are important, but the other ones you can get at other times of the day, and at much cheaper rate. The A18-49 aren’t only valuable because the their buying power. They are valuable because they are very elusive, hard to get them to watch TV, fickle, hard to make them watch out of habit, and also are not habit bound to the brands they use, unlike the over 45.
I’m sorry to see this, I really like Castle.
Tommy – Though the demo is low Im pretty sure consistency will save Castle. I think its a lot like last spring though. Where Cupid and The Unusals were dropping, it seems despite the higher rated lead in, Eastwick and forgotten is dropping too. Private Practice did the best out of the 4 sophomore dramas but the other 3 were axed because their ratings are bad. With 1 freshman drama guaranteed a full year (Flashforward) its up to the 3 10pm dramas to compete. If you look at last year, the 10pm series were Boston Legal, Eli Stone, and Dirty Sexy Money. While Eastwick and The Forgottens first weeks were better than Money and Stone, keep in mind, these numbers can easily drop. If it wasnt the final season, Boston Legal would have gotten a renewal in the slot.
Sorry if I missed this somewhere, but this index will be updated weekly?
Castle, The Forgotten and Eastwick will all be canceled because thats what happened to Pushing Daisies, Dirty Sexy Money and Eli Stone when they all got low ratings.
I could see FlashForward going to have a Life on Mars fate.
Does anyone know when we’ll find out the definite fate of these shows? Last season there was a date we had to look forward to. Do we have that this season too? At least when we’ll find out if Castle is getting a full second season?
ABC fanatic – I could see Castle being the Private Practice of last year, with The Forgotten and Eastwick turning out like Eli Stone and Dirty Sexy Money.
Michy Geary – Castle’s fate will likely be decided by early November at the latest. Castle, Eastwick, and Forgotten began at the very beginning of the season so ABC has to look at the numbers for the first 7 episodes of each show before making a decision. Eastwick and The Forgotten’s fate will also be determined likely by November, if neither gets a full year before hand.
MichyGeary, shows can be cancelled at any time, but mid-season cancellations are somewhat rare. Renewals for next season are all announced by the end of May, but they are occasionally announced prior to that time, usually for shows doing very well, Castle isn’t one of those.
Thanks Dan and Bill.
@MichyGeary-
To be clear for the above two, there’s two scenarios:
If the show has a 22 episode order already, it is very rare that it will be canceled in the middle of the year. Usually you find out at the early May Upfronts that the show will not be returning – though if the end is obvious, the networks will tell the showrunners to make a season finale ahead of time.
If the show has a 13 episode order, then we usually “know” when the show does not get a “backorder” for additional episodes and does not appear on the midseason schedule. The networks usually don’t come out and say “The Forgotten is totally canceled!” because then no one will watch the episodes still on the schedule, and advertising revenue suffers.
Castle only has a 13-episode order. So keep an eye on ABC’s midseason schedule to know for sure.
Tom – Yep thats right, veteran shows like Desperate Housewives, Grey’s Anatomy, Brothers & Sisters, Ugly Betty, & Private Practice will never be pulled since the all have full orders and all except Betty are 100% likely to return next season. Castle is relatively new so it can either be axed after 13 eps or given a full year.
ABC is one network that will air around 7-9 episodes of a series by November before announcing a series fate. If the 10pm trio of Castle/Forgotten/Eastwick have numbers like Stone/Daisies/Money did where ABC notices they are gradually decreasing, the network will let them air all 13 episodes into December and then announce a January replacement.
If Castle doesnt get a back 9, it will likely finish up its season on December 14th. (Like Boston Legal last year) ABC wont air repeats post Dancing so if the show gets a full year, December will likely be repeats for series. (I personally think this one will get a full year)
If The Forgotten doesnt get a back 9 it will finish up on December 15 or 29. This series doesnt look good right now for a full year, but like Eli Stone, Its liekly ABC will keep it in the slot to air new eps.
If Eastwick doesnt get a back 9, it will finish up December 16 or 30. This series given the lead in definitely doesnt look good for a full year, but I dont think unless it really does disatourous, that ABC would pull it.
ABC never airs repeats of the three series in their actual slots so, unless theres scheduling changes, hopefully all 3 will be burned off by December. I think Castle will get a full year and The Forgotten and Eastwcik will stick around long enough to fill holes, but its possible either could be pulled around November. If anything, I’m sure ABC will burn the extra episodes next summer. There would be around 3-4 for Forgotten or Eastwick so that shouldnt be too bad.
I really enjoy Eastwick. I hope it doesn’t get cancelled. I feel as though it needs a few weeks to find it’s viewers because the plot is starting to get juicy.