Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season:
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F) | 0.57 |
| Cold Case | 0.67 |
| Medium (F) | 0.67 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.70 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.73 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.73 |
| The Good Wife | 0.98 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (p) | 1.05 |
| The Mentalist | 1.14 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.14 |
| CSI:NY | 1.27 |
| CSI | 1.30 |
| CSI: Miami | 1.36 |
| Criminal Minds | 1.40 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | 1.40 |
| Two And A Half Men | 1.43 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.49 |
| NCIS | 1.52 |
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Cold Case and Without A Trace presumably battled it out for the last drama renewal from CBS last spring. Cold Case was the winner of that fight, but is immediately looking like it’s overstayed its welcome. (WAT fans stifle your whining, my guess is that the same would’ve happened to that show). No other CBS shows seem in obvious danger yet. New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried are low once again, but what’s new? If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be fine for another renewal.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday’s have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:
- (p) – Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I see Cold Case and Gary Unmarried cancelled and Old Christine renewed.
I think, despite the price tag, CBS canceled the wrong show in the spring when they chose Cold Case over Without A Trace.
Christine survived this year, making it even more likely CBS gets a sweetheart deal next year to get it to syndication numbers. I’d put it at more likely than (in decreasing chances) Gary, Numbers, Cold Case, and AoP to see 2011.
I’m fuzzy about the T notation. Does it solely refer to first-run airing, like Friday Night Lights? Because (IIRC) Medium’s producers get something like 1 Mil per new episode made, from Lifetime.
Bruce-
I agree with you completely. I thought Without a Trace had many more things going for it than Cold Case.
I’m fuzzy about the T notation. Does it solely refer to first-run airing, like Friday Night Lights? Because (IIRC) Medium’s producers get something like 1 Mil per new episode made, from Lifetime.
Well, by that all 3 CSIs, Criminal Minds, NCIS, House, Bones, etc., etc. would all have a T since they all get over $1 mill/episode for syndication.
I’m pretty sure the T is just for situations like Friday Night Lights
i think T should be just for shows like Flashpoint,Persons Unknown and Friday Night Lights which get outside funding
@Tom, yes the “T” notation means the production cost of new episodes is being shared/subsidized. My understanding was that Lifetime had done a forward syndication deal on Medium, but if they are, in fact, subsidizing current production I should note that.
I freak’n love cold case!! Please DO NOT cancel it!!
except for the Friday shows, I see EVERYTHING under, and including, Accidentally on Purpose gone…
CBS’ list early looks very similar to last year with almost nothing in danger. Cold Case definitely in last season, it was almost gone in May. Numbers might be in danger if it continues to be the weak link on Fridays I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets canned in May, but definitely could be renewed.
How long b4 TBBT and 2.5 Men swap slots… seems like Bang should be at 9 as it appears to be their #1 comedy. I think CSI should be slid to 10pm on Thursdays by next season unless it can hold or bounce back some. It’s in it’s 10th year after all and the other CSI’s do well at 10, and maybe Mentalist could do better at 9. Too early to tell on Mentalist, but I do think this is CSI’s last season airing Thu @ 9.
I think this is definetly be the last season of Cold Case and 50/50 on Numb3rs, I do agree that this may be the last season of CSI in the 9pm slot unless ratings improve. I doubt CBS would end it now as it still got good figures and it’s CBS’ cashcow.
I hope Bill or Robert are prepared to be inunated with Alex O’Loughlin fans when we have the Three Rivers ratings on Monday.
How crazy would it be if CBS moved it’s Monday comedies to Thursday next season? The time might be ripe. CSI/Survivor are struggling, and The Mentalist ain’t no game-changer yet. NBC is on its last legs that night. Meanwhile, Fox and CW are picking up sizable chunks of viewers in different demos.
Would CBS be so bold?
@Jim, “Would CBS be so bold?”
Regardless of the subject of that question, the answer would be no. In this case, definitely no.
Yes it is, they could have kept the Unit, without a trace or 11th hr and they go with cold case. But if your CBS you can pick and choose they just picked wrong
CSM – CBS is not in a hurry to switch 2.5 men and big bang because they know people tune into watch 2.5 men wherever it is and those people stay after but what are the chances of those same people tuning in at 9 for big bang then men? I mean at least for a season they need to keep it at 9:30. probably next season we might see it at 9.
That’s just my theory
Don’t be so quick to judge. Cold Case is down from last season’s premiere, but it is the average ratings over the course of a season that matter. The fall means football preempting Sunday night shows. There’s also a new time slot.
Furthermore, while your thesis of the all important 18-49 numbers suggests Cold Case and shows like it are always losers, there may be many other factors involved in deciding what shows stay and what shows go.
@ Tony – good point, I didn’t think they would do it immediately, CBS needs to make sure it’s a real trend or pattern. I just wasn’t sure if they would stick with it all season long, but CBS tends to stick with the status quo so maybe it wouldn’t be until next September at the earliest they would swap and put TBBT @ 9.
Criminal Minds is the only show I watch on CBS. As long as that returns, so will I to CBS.
Get rid of the wed comedy block.
bad shows with mediocre ratings.
At some point CBS is going to have to re-evaluate their strategy for the second comedy block, right? Its become the weak link in their otherwise strong line-up so eventually something has to give… Or maybe not. If they’re really serious about a second comedy block though maybe they should take something from Monday’s block and air it Wednesday instead?
On another note the question for CBS this year has surely got to be how much bigger can NCIS get!
The Wednesday comedy block is a weak point, but I think CBS is thinking they can afford the lower ratings now if they can manage to get that 2nd block up and running. Surprisingly, they are being rather patient with it. Of course, at some point that patience has to run out…
I also think they want the second comedy block for shows like Old Christine that they know can get good numbers on monday nights but they want to start new shows on monday yet they still want syndication money, which is where old christine comes in handy.
Next Season I could see either a new comedy after Old Christine or ROE or even AOP.
CBS should had but Wed comedies on Friday and Ghost WHisper at 8 on Wed it would be intreting to c how it would have done with really no competion.
TBBT Gets post super bowl and 9pm slot maybe not this year or next yr but in a few yrs
I would Numb3rs in some danger because it is the lowest on the list.
Bill – This list is dead on
Cold Case is the only veteran that is definitely going to end by May (since it was already on the bubble last May) and numbers are down. and the sunday night death slot 10pm (killed Shark and The Unit)
Old Christine and Gary are in danger but, Id say that Old Christine will either get picked up for wednesday again, or if its axed, ABC will probably pick it up (like they said they would do). Gary will likely be axed though if it doesnt improve.
Numb3rs is in no danger. Its doing decent for Friday and I dont think CBS would gamble on something else.
Id say the Good Wife will get a full year but will likely not return for a second year.
Does anyone agree?
Cold Case & Numbers are definitely gone, barring some miraculous uptick (which is highhjly unlikely). Both are too costly and have served their purpose. CBS is convinced they can get the same numbers they get with fresher less expensive shows.
Gary Unmarried is more than likely out the door as well. Christine could just stay, especially if CBS remains committed to sitcoms.
I could definitely see CBS move BBT to Thursday @ 9 next season if things keep looking this good. Genres go in cycles. If CBS thinks sitcoms are on the rise again and BBT’s numbers prove it can stand on its own, then it does make sense to move their “buzz” show to the plum Thursday time slot and move CSI back to 10 – especially if they have some hot new sitcom pilot in the works to follow it. Of course, it makes even more sense for CBS to split up the NCIS duo next season and move one to CSI’s timeslot and slide the Mentalist back to Tuesdays (or possibly even to Sundays???) … to me, that’s the more likely scenario.
Regarding the (S) designation, the notes says it’s for shows “nearing” syndication, but both Medium and Cold Case are already in syndication.
I think CBS will leave sitcoms on Mondays, there is no way that The Big Bang Theory would move to Thursdays, The best thing that will happen is that it gets promoted to 9pm when Two and a Half Men ends its run.
Cold Case is already dead, If you notice, each year since 2007 CBS cancels 1 veteran drama. 2007 the only 1 was two year drama Close to Home and in 2008 they cancelled two year veterans Jericho and Shark. CBS ran out of two years in 2009 so they had two cancel a series that aired longer but still held up Without a Trace as well as the lowering The Unit. For May 2010 the only veteran thats in danger is Cold Case, everyone knows it and Three Rivers will likely lower Cold Case even more. Trace got 7 seasons with 12 million viewers being their lowest, and Cold Case will probably end this season with around 8 million. Cold Case will have 156-158 episodes by the end of this year, and is already in syndication so there is no need to keep it around any longer.
Numb3rs is in no danger, my bet is that CBS is willing to stick with the Ghost Whisperer/Medium/Numb3rs combo for atleast 1 more year.
Jon – CBS will keep 8-10 mondays and 8-9 wednesdays comedies for 2010-2011. It may look like this however
2010-2011
Mondays
8:00 How I Met Your Mother
8:30 NEW SERIES
9:00 Two and a Half Men
9:30 The Big Bang Theory
Wednesdays
8:00 Old Christine/Accidentally
8:30 Rules of Engagement
If CBS dumps Gary, they may keep Old Christine and Rules on wednesdays just so they have two veteran comedies that night. Id keep Rules just for syndication purposes.
The only series I could see as definites to return for 10-11 are
Two and a Half Men (already renewed)
The Big Bang Theory (already renewed)
How I Met Your Mother (final season)
Between Gary, Accidentally and Rules, Rules will replace 1 comedy, but its more likely Gary an Accidentally be axed by May and Rules return in 10. I’d like to see Rules in syndication, and since 2008 its always been held for midseason.
Re: Without a Trace vs Cold Case
If it had been the other way around, with Without a Trace renewed and Cold Case cancelled, WAT would not have stayed on Tuesdays because that would have meant putting both new shows Good Wife and Three Rivers on Sunday which wouldn’t be good. So, WAT would likely have been moved to Sunday, and likely the same 10pm slot that CC is in now since CBS wants Rivers at 9pm. So, would it really be doing any better than CC?
Jon K – If Cold Case had been axed, and Trace renewed than this would have been Trace’s final season. Case had the advantage by being a year younger, and doing well enough on Sundays. CBS probably didnt want to completely give up on sundays (axing both Cold Case and The Unit, so they moved the reliable Cold Case to 10 replacing The Unit and scheduled a new series for sundays at 9 and tuesdays at 10. Here’s what I think will happen this season
Three Rivers will bomb, and get axed by Novemebr, moving Cold Case back to 9.
Cold Case will do OK at 9, and CBS will likely move Flashpoint to sundays at 10.
After Flashpoint ends, either Miami Trauma or The Bridge will replace it probably by February.
Cold Case and the new midseason series will be axed by May.
Here’s a potential 2010-2011 season for CBS
Sundays
7:00 60 Minutes
8:00 Amazing Race
9:00 The Mentalist
10:00 NEW SERIES
Mondays
8:00 How I Met Your Mother
8:30 NEW SERIES
9:00 Two and a Half Men
9:30 The Big Bang Theory
10:00 CSI Miami
Tuesdays
8:00 NCIS
9:00 NCIS LA
10:00 NEW SERIES
Wednesdays
8:00 Old Christine
8:30 Rules of Engagement
9:00 Criminal Minds
10:00 CSI NY
Thursdays
8:00 Survivor
9:00 CSI
10:00 NEW SERIES
Fridays
8:00 Ghost Whisperer
9:00 Medium
10:00 Numb3rs
Since CBS doesnt change many slots, this schedule may be easier to figure out. I’ll bet CBS will use 10pm to launch all new series (and whichever one does the best will get a full year) and move The Mentalist to 9pm sundays (so they will have a well performing show for the night). Airing a new series at 10pm may be good since NBC only airs Leno then. I only see NCIS LA returning. Accidentally looks like it will be replaced and if Gary doesnt improve it will be gone.
WAT might get more viewers than CC but I think the demo would be the same. CBS had a Wednesday comedy block before if I remember it right it was the combo of Yes Dear!/ Still Standing. Both didn’t do well so I don’t know how long CBS patience will be for Christine-Gary combo.
Old Christine might still survive, maybe they could move it back to Mondays. Or if CBS cancels it ABC might them pick up unless all four new ABC sitcoms would do well and they won’t need Old Christine anymore.
@Dan, why would they move Mentalist to Sunday when they just moved it to Thursday (presumably to be a CSI replacement)? I think NCIS:LA should be the one moved to Sunday and then use the Tues 9pm slot to launch a new show (like they did for the Mentalist) instead of the post-CSI slot.
Forg – your right, CBS in 2005 had a comedy duo on wednesday of Yes, Dear and Still Standing but both were already good for syndication. Old CHristine will be by the end of the year, so if CBS renews it it will be in the same position as Yes Dear was, and RUles will be in the same position as Still Standing.
I think Old Christine should end in May but CBS will liekly keep it, since ABC may want it. Anyway its good for syndication.
Rules of Engagement, however will have 48 episodes within 4 seasons by the end of this year. If I was in charge of CBS I would give it 1 of the wednesday slots for fall 2010.
Which ever series CBS has Rules replace will likely be gone
The question is will it be Accidentally on Purpose or Gary Unamrried.
HIMYM – 8.73 million
AOP – 8.07
Mother and Purpose both dropped this week but it depends on how much of Mother, Purpose retained.
Christine – 7.3
Gary – 7.6
Christine and Gary’s ratings on wednesday are lower but Gary holds on to a good portion of Christine.
My best guess is that CBS gives Accidentally around 18 episodes (CBS has never in 7 years, pulled a new comedy series in the fall). Gary looks less likely to be replaced.
Which series does everyone think Rules will replace???
I like how everyone states CBS will choose Christine over Gary, even though Gary is higher on the index.
Jon K – I dont think CBS wants The Mentalist to be a CSI replacement. CSI is in no danger of ending (It could last as long as ER just because its a Flagship series) The reason they moved The Big Bnag Theory is to potentially be a Men replacement, though comedies in general have fewer seasons than dramas (Two and a Half Men cant last 15 seasons for example but CSI can)
CBS moved The Mentalist to just generate viewers to the Thursday 10pm slot. 10pm would be bad in general for The Mentalist, but airing after CSI helps the series get back its post NCIS audience.
When Cold Case is axed, CBS wont have a veteran drama for sunday nights (which has become their lowest rated drama night besides fridays). Why not CBS move The Mentalist to 9 on sundays to air against Desperate Housewives, Football. and Family Guy (All other networks 9-10 sundays will liekly stay the same in the fall).
CBS is struggling sundays at 9, and its good to have 1 veteran drama airing each night. Moving The Mentalist to 9 sundays will bring viewers to that night, and give CBS a chance to bring a new drama to 10 thursdays.
I think for 2010-2011, moving The Mentalist to 9 would solve a lot of problems.
Oh I just remembered:
please note that Big Bang Theory was renewed last season until the 2010-2011 season (4th), and Two and a Half Men until the 2011-2012 season.
Oh and I just remembered:
Putting the Mentalist at 10:00 was a stupid movie anyways. Everytime it comes on at 10:00 it lost a lot of viewers last season. Even after NCIS.
Heradite – We only think that because CBS has done it 2 years in a row (renewing Christine, for wednesdays) and also because since May 2008, ABC has said they would pick Old Christine up. To tell you the truth, Christine is only doing OK. If CBS wantgs to develop new comedies, they should bother bringing Christine back for 2010-2011. Christine will have 89 episodes by May and will enter syndication. CBS should dump it then and let ABC pick it up.
If CBS drops Christine and saves Gary, fall 2010 could look like this for the two nights of comedy.
MONDAY
8:00 How I Met Your Mother
8:30 NEW COMEDY
9:00 Two and a Half Men
9:30 The Big Bang Theory
10:00 CSI Miami
WEDNESDAY
8:00 Rules of Engagement
8:30 Gary Unmarried
9:00 Criminal Minds
10:00 CSI NY
I think if Accidentally doesnt retain a lot of Mother, it wont last. The series doesnt seem like it could go on for a few seasons. CBS should give Rules a 22 episode order in the wednesday 8:00 slot (Rules largest season had 15 episodes). It seems CBS wants Gary to succeed, so Id give it another year. CBS either axes a comedy after its first season or after atleast 4 seasons. They havent axed a comedy after its second season since Baby Bob in 2003.
Heradite – The 9th season of Men will probably be its last (how long until the series turns into “3 Men”?) I could see The Big Bang Theory lasting past its current renewal point (5th season) and possibly after Men ends. CBS moved The Mentalist just to get CSI exposure which isnt a bad thing, but it would help that CBS moves it to 9pm sundays for 2010-2011, just so every night has a veteran drama and CBS can launch new series at 10, (10pm sundays, tuesdays, and thursdays). And whichever does the best retaining will succeed.
Yeah Cold Case definitely has been on one season too many. But the same applies to Heroes (probably could’ve canceled it earlier even), Lost should’ve been canceled years back, One Tree Hill has run its course and now House MD’s latest season is a joke. They really should have ended the shows if this is all they have left to do. Just my opinion though.
Wow, excellent memory on programming Dan, kudos! I’ve almost forgotten Baby Bob until you mentioned it
Jon K, you are correct. I was basing the footnotes on episode number, my knowledge of what is and isn’t in syndication is incomplete. I will fix Cold Case and Mediums notes.
I think the (S) designation should be for shows both in and nearing syndication. Think of Scrubs, which has lasted way longer than it should because it makes ABC a nice penny in syndication.
G – NBC’s main reason why they didnt axe Heroes was because it did do better than a lot of their other dramas, and was relatively popular. However like Prison Break last year, Heroes should end after this season. The difference between CBS and FOX & NBC is that CBS’s schedule rarely changes from season to season, and their lowest rated dramas cancelled averages around 9 million to 12 million. CBS has a tough time axing veteran dramas and shows that last till May because all of their series do well (even series they axe early on do OK)
The Unit – 9.8 million
Eleventh Hour – 12.110 million
Without a Trace – 12.97 million
All three this season aired at 10pm and were likely victims of bad retention.
NBC renewes whatever series that does the best (of their disatourous year) Here’s an NBC renewal list for 09-10
Heroes – 9.72 million – Lower ratings, yet still did pretty good to be renewed
SVU – 10.3 million – Did the best of all NBC series, there was no question for renewal
Chuck – 7.3 million – Lowering ratings, yet fan support and subway saved the show and it did do better than all of NBC’s axed dramas.
Law & Order – Ratings went down, yet the veteran series had to get a historic 20th year.
Southland – Series initially did better than a lot of NBC’s new freshman and sophomore dramas, so they gave it another chance.
Friday Night Lights – The lowest rated NBC series renewed, yet DirecTV gave it 2 more seasons
L&O Criminal Intent – Technically on USA, another show that airs first on another network but airs reruns on NBC
CBS has to find the worst performing shows to axe, while NBC has to find their best performing shows to renew. And CBS’s lowest rated series are still higher than NBC’s highest rated.
forg – It wasnt my memory, I just checked CBS’s comedy list on the futon critic
http://www.thefutoncritic.com/showatch.aspx?sort=yearstart&series=&network=cbs&daycode=&statuscode=&genre=comedy%20(all)&studio=
If you notice, after 2002-2003 all of their cancelled comedies are either after 1 season
The Stones
Listen Up
Center of The Universe
Out of Practice
Courting Alex
The Class
Creature Comforts
Welcome to the Captain
Worst Week
or the axed comedies have been veterans (4-9 seasons)
Becker
Everybody Loves Raymond
Yes Dear
Still Standing
The King of Queens
If Gary is axed, it will be the first comedy in years that CBS lets go after its second year. By my logic “Rules” is technically a veteran but looking at the amount of episodes it will have you would hardly believe it. 48 episodes.
Julia, interesting suggestion, it is a work in progress. What I was trying to capture is either the studio owned “let’s jam it on the schedule one more season so we can get to 88″ shows (Ugly Betty), and the “let’s license it for free, so we can get to 88 shows” (’Til Death). But perhaps the “every ratings crushing episode of this dog we air puts money in the syndication bank” (Scrubs) shows need to be noted as well. I will think about it.
@Julia, But almost being in syndication could get you an extra season, already being in syndication doesn’t make as much of a difference.
Holly, with some shows it does, though, like Scrubs. And According to Jim stuck around much longer than it should, even well after it was already in syndication.
Bill – Any way you look at it whether its entering syndication soon with the same studio that airs the series (Ugly Betty), or has been in that syndication run for a while with the same studio (Scrubs) or is entering with a different studio in the rare case (Til Death) All are here for syndicated purposes.
Ugly Betty – Will get 88-90 episodes for its fourth season. Since its technically a drama, Betty is more expensive to produce, and being an hour long it requires less episodes than a comedy. It will enter syndication in Fall 2011 and will probably end next May.
Scrubs – Like ABC has been doing to According to Jim the past 3 seasons the more episodes it gets (despite ratings being horribly lower) the more money the studio makes. Thus Scrubs can go own with its new premise for another 2 seasons and ABC will make $$$. Which is the whole reason ABC picked the series up. It has been in syndication since fall 07 I think.
Til Death – This renewal is odd because FOX doesnt even own Til Death, SONY does. Yet the licensing fee must have been cheap to have FOX keep it around for another year. Yet FOX has no other live action comedies so it seems they have been using Til Death to try to launch or help other comedies (to no avail). (Happy Hour, The War at Home, Back to You, Do Not Disturb and now Brothers. What FOX doesnt understand is that they should have never held Til Death for almost a year without new episodes. FOX should have aired some Season 3 Til Death sundays at 7:00 or 7:30 from January-May 2009, to replace comedy repeats. Or atleast this past summer in those slots. Death will return this friday with lower ratings than before.
Dan, CBS always have the “missing link” on their Monday sitcoms hence the several canceled sitcoms although a bunch of those were good IMO like Out of Practice and The Class.
Rules of Engagement is quite impressive, the show is under the radar but when it returns, it performs relatively well although the 2.5 men lead-in is a factor for that. I guess that’s why CBS keeps the show for midseason because it is a reliable performer despite long breaks and low buzz.
we hear from some that the licensing fees on ‘Til Death weren’t distinguishable from “free”.
Are there any low-rated dramas that were renewed because they were already in syndication?
forg – I agree, CBS always has a series mondays that doesnt perform well out of Men (Out of Practice, Worst Week) or doesnt do well after Mother (The Class) Rules never got a chance to do badly because its always aired after Men (and has done better in that slot than the series it replaced) In season 1 Rules retained more Men than Christine did, in Season 2 Rules continued to retain a lot of Men, despite the writers strike. And in Season 3 Rules retained a lot more Men than Worst Week) If the writers strike never happened, Rules may have been moved or replaced with Christine temporarily and might have been axed. But the strike saved Rules in the respect that CBS never got that chance to replace Rules (instead their two midseason shows, Christine and Captain conveniently replaced Big Bang and Rules repeats.
Like Ive stated a lot, I had thought last May that for 09-10 CBS would axe Gary and air Rules at 8:30 wendnesday slot. But it turns out CBS did the same thing for 09-10 as they did for 08-09. They remained consistent and gave Christine a 22 episode order in the same slot, gave Gary the same slot, and held Rules for midseason.
Rules performs well so I hope CBS actually uses the show more next year. The question I’m trying to figure out is where will Rules go? last year was easy. Rules replaced the series Worst Week which had bad retention and was only given a 16 episode order. This year is harder because the question is will CBS air Accidentally for a full year, and cut Gary short, or will CBS leave Gary and replace Accidentally.
Wasn’t the reason that Criminal Intent moved to USA is because it was still making money? I think the CSIs will stick around for a while as they are CBS’ cashcows but I imagine they will boot Laurence Fishburne if ratings don’t improve.
The Til’ Death is interesting because surely if no one is watching a show on a network, they are certainly not going to be watching in repeats.
I think it’s only been pretty recently with the L&O’s and now NCIS and House that dramas really make a lot in syndication. Maybe enough for an extra season to push them over the mark, but not enough to justify several seasons. Despite the whole 20th season thing, would L&O have stuck around if NBC couldn’t make its money back somehow?
Holly – Medium was lower rated and already in syndication but the main reason CBS got it is because they were willing to give the show 22 episodes as opposed to the 13 NBC was going to give. It makes sense because CBS owns the series and more episodes of Medium would be more profitable for them. At the end of this season Medium will have around 117 episodes, and Im sure CBS would renew the series again.
If The Unit was owned by CBS, there would have been a fifth season for syndication, but the series is in syndication with 69 episodes, and for a drama thats not bad. Hour long dramas can be in syndication with a lower amount of episodes than comedies (obviously because they are twice as long) However, hour long dramas are usually extended for syndication because the more episodes they produce, the more money the studios will make. Which is why almost all syndicated dramas (with lower ratings) air on the studio that also produces them.
A lot of recent dramas struggled to get picked up for syndications, Lost was picked by Syfy and G4 for a low price, Ghost Whisperer was picked by Syfy, WE and ION and Criminal Minds was picked up by A&E and ION. I wonder if the success of NCIS on USA prompted TNT to pick up CSI:NY and Numb3rs.
CSI: NY got $1.9 million four years ago (from Spike TV). Most the deals I’ve seen are $1.2-$1.5 million. If you consider that the average drama costs about $2 million to produce, that’s huge.
The syndication might have helped L&O, but it was a 0.93 on last year’s index, so it wasn’t doing too bad, and it tended to do better whenever CSI: NY was off or a repeat. Since it’s been moved around before and maintained an audience, they could see it as a utility player that would hold up anywhere on the schedule. Now, granted, based on last Friday that didn’t turn out so well, but…
Jon – Some shows do better in syndication than they do on the network (According to Jim, Scrubs, Family Guy after it was axed in 2002) Its not that more people will watch in repeats, its that the more episodes produced, the more money a network studio will make. For example Til Death, would have had 54 episodes had it ended after season 3 (22 production season 1, 19 production season 2, 13 production season 3). With 22 new episodes, the show will have 76 after season 4, the bare minimum needed. According to Jim, Still Standing, Bernie Mac, Less Than Perfect, Yes Dear, Everbody Hates Chris, and All of Us, were examples of comedies that got lower ratings in their final seasons and were likely continued just for syndication purposes. Old Christine will have 89 episodes so when it enters syndication, it will be profitable.
@Jon, Serialized dramas like Lost have a hard time finding syndication, but I don’t think most procedurals have too much trouble.
@Dan, I’ll give you Medium.
Didn’t know that CSI:NY had already in sydication, I’m guessing TNT picked up additional rights for cheap. Apparently Two and a Half Men is to air on FX as part of its syndication deal but not till 2010. I think episodes numbers required for syndication range from 65 to 100. I know Disney had a policy to end all shows after 65 episodes.
Holly – L&O wasnt renewed for syndication. It was well into that for atleast 10 years. It was renewed because the series still did well for the network whenever a new series failed, and like CBS’s CSI, L&O was a flagship series.
Jon – Criminal Intent was still making money, yet NBC couldnt afford to keep it, so they did the smart thing and transferred it to USA, where the show could help that network and NBC could air repeats without technically owning the show. It seems win-win until now where NBC has nothing except regular L&O and SVU.
@Jon, The people who own Spike already had the rights to CSI: Vegas and bought the rights for CSI: NY after its first season. I can’t remember whether TNT made a deal with the people who own Spike or with CBS, but they have it set up so that one has rights for primetime on the weekdays and one has rights for daytime and weekends. It’s in local syndication too (MyNetwork or the CW around here).
Holly, I imagine that serialized shows like Lost and 24 would struggle to sell or get an audience since you can’t dip in and out but these shows make up for that by selling really well on DVD which is another lucrative market for studios.
Don’t some shows get aired weekly on cable before getting stripped daily, I know that The Office aired on TBS before it hit syndication.
Jon,
I think it depends on the setup, and the number of episodes available. They’ll only do daily if they have enough episodes to run it for more than a month or two. If TBS had the Office after only two or three seasons, they would have only had 28 or 40 episodes.
Holly -I cant think of another drama, only around for syndication. Shows that debuted either midseason 2006 or fall 2006 (that are still around) are shows that would be ready to enter syndication after this year. All of CBS’s veteran dramas are already in syndication or entering it. (Except The Mentalist).
From 2006-2007 season besides Ugly Betty, dramas
ABC’s Brothers & Sisters will enter syndication next year but ABC will still keep it around after that just because its doing OK in the ratings.
NBC’s Friday Night Lights or Heroes, may enter it, depends on a lot of factors and from CW maybe Gossip Girl (in a few years)
FOX, CBS, and CW have no surviving dramas from this season
From 2007-2008
ABC’s Private Practice will make it in a few years. I believe the show will survive to that point.
NBC’s Chuck may not make it, and it depends on if the show is renewed again.
CW’s Gossip Girl will also make it, down the line.
FOX and CBS have no surviving dramas from this season.
The only comedy surviving from 06-07 that wont make it soon is Rules of Engagement which by the end of its fourth season will have 48 episodes. Til Death and 30 Rock will make it with 76 and 80 episodes (respectively) atleast by the end of the year.
Holly, I forgot about the CSIs. I think the problem with dramas is most of them are better rated to begin with it they make it to syndication, since they are more expensive, and less likely to be renewed from the bubble.
(And I mean the problem with using dramas in the theory about keeping them around for syndication money.)
The Office and Earl both aired on TBS in fall 2007 despite only having 53 and 47 episodes, though it technically wasnt syndication, TBS just reran the series 1nce or twice a week I believe.
@Dan,
The question isn’t whether being close to syndication makes a difference in renewal, we know it does. The question is whether already being in syndication makes a difference.
It has made a difference for some comedies (According to Jim and Scrubs) that were renewed several times despite horrible ratings.
Can the same be said for any dramas?
Medium is a maybe. The syndication deal got CBS to pick it up, but it would have been renewed on NBC anyway (albeit with fewer episodes).
I imagine Brothers and Sisters will end up on Lifetime or a similar channel, surprised it hasn’t been picked up yet. Gossip Girl doesn’t strike me as a show that would do well in syndication but I could see on ABC Family or TeenNick.
As a huge fan of Wat, I’m enjoying the low rates of some (many) of CBS shows, old and new. Some of you said that Wat would probably have undergone the same fate of CC this year, but Wat showed, throughout the years, that it was able to survive despite the lack of respect with which it was treated by the PTB. Moved here and there, it still kept its public and never, never had such low numbers as CC or Numbers or others. CBS didn’t give a damn about its viewers (and about people working in the series, all of them) giving us a seasons that didn’t end in any way, leaving everything suspended, cutting abruptly the only classy series they had after 7 years of success. Now, if things will go badly for CBS, I’m nothing but happy for this.
@Julia, If existing syndication isn’t a factor in the renewal of dramas, perhaps the S designation could be used on dramas only if they are nearing syndication but on comedies nearing or in syndication.
@iretos,
Yep, I’m sure CBS is just pissed that they had a great premiere week, had strong launches for their two new shows, and are up year-to-year. That will teach them to cancel expensive shows with mediocre ratings.
All these shows…and half of them involve STUPID cop drama’s, Sooooo unoriginal…Ghost Whisperer and How I met your mother are the only good shows they have.
Holly, what I meant is I can’t think of any dramas in recent years other than WAT that was already in syndication and was ended due to ratings. And with WAT it was because CBS had to cancel something. Can you think of any others that weren’t saved despite syndication?
I went back to 2005-2006 season and the only dramas I could easily spot that had been canceled despite syndication (or at least enough episodes for syndication) are:
Alias (I think Garner wanted out?)
West Wing (Don’t remember the reasoning for ending, but I don’t think it was ratings)
The OC (Had 92 episodes, so not sure if it really made it to syndication)
ER (Producers and NBC decided to give it a good send off)
Without a Trace (Already discussed)
Holly – NBC renewed Medium for 13 episodes, but CBS studios argued for 22 which NBC didnt want to pay for because They wouldnt get any profit, so NBC axed it and CBS picked it up. Besides Medium, and Ugly Betty there arent any dramas that are just renewed for syndication, since dramas are more expensive than comedies, most that are in syndication are there because theyve done well during their network runs. Cheap multi camera comedies tend to stick around for syndication, along with Scrubs but its rare that dramas do.
^So our end result is that we don’t have enough information to say either way?
I think that’s the conclusion we have to draw.
I think it’s something that will become more of an issue in coming years. With hour long procedurals doing so well in syndication, as soon as the first runs start dropping in ratings we’ll see whether syndication will make a difference.
Julia – Alias had enough for syndication and was cancelled just because ratings lowered significantly from seasons 4-5. It did get a final episode. The OC was owned by Warner Brothers so syndication didnt matter to FOX. Plus OC has very very low numbers its last year, it does air on SoapNet. Its harder for dramas to get syndicated unless they are either still on the air or a good deal is made. Without a Trace was in syndication and ended with 160 episodes but it entered a few years back.
Since comedies are easier to sell into syndication, all comedies currently on the air (that have aired since 2007) are in consideration for eventual syndication while dramas, it depends on how well the show did.
Dan, I’m pretty sure Garner wanted out of Alias as well. And Without a Trace was mentioned several times already. CBS had to cancel something and made the choice to cancel Without a Trace. It would be interesting if we had access to syndication deals to see if WAT had a worse deal than CC.
Holly – the best thing I can conclude about syndication is that comedies are usually always considered for it, while a lot of factors are considered for dramas to enter it. Comedies are 90% more liekly renewed for syndication while dramas are rarely renewed just for that purpose. Ugly Betty and Medium were both bubble series for each network (no guaranteed future). Its not likely Betty will get a fifth year but Medium will liekly get a seventh.
Julia – Besides ratings, Garner did want out and 104 episodes is pretty good for a drama. Trace was owned by WB and I think Case is owned by CBS but their syndication deals are similiar. When dramas get more than 100 eps, whatever they get beyond that doesnt seem as good for syndication as opposed to if Jim or Scrubs gets above 160. Since comedies’ episodes are half the amount of dramas, 180 episodes of a comedy would be as profiable as around 100 eps of a drama.
@ Julia,
Regarding the West Wing, my recollection is that since it had run for 7 Seasons then the contracts for most of the cast were running out. I do not remember the details too clearly, but I think that some of them either wanted to leave or wanted more money to return. So I think that the consensus going into S7 was that it would be the final Season, especially as some observers had commented that S6 had declined in quality.
AO – Your right. The West Wing wasnt just a ratings thing. It was an agreed final season type situation where the cast wanted to move on, and NBC was ready to end it. Though ratings did take a hit, the shows end was agreed upon.
I actually prefer Cold Case over Without a Trace. Its a shame they moved Cold Case to 10pm considering it did so well against Desperate Housewives last season. Sadly this probably will be its final season But hey 7 seasons isnt too shabby!
Tom – With Three Rivers likely to be axed in a few weeks, CBS may move Cold Case back to 9 and air Flashpoint at 10. It will be the final season for Cold Case but the show had a very good run. Hopefully the producers give closure to the series.
Holly, am I reading different numbers? The only new show that did well was NCIS LA. For the rest, old and new (here again, excepting NCIS) were all down in comparison to last year, even “The Mentalist”. Wat’s ratings were far better than those of Cold Case and Numbers and were the same – or better, not rarely – than CSI Miami and NY. More expensive? It’s possible, that’s what they said. But there is a way to do things, particularly for a long-run show with lots of fans throughout the world. But evidently the word ‘respect’ for fans (for all those people thanks to whom a network survives) is outdated and I’m too much an idealist.
I think they should have kept Without a Trace, the actors all agreed to take a pay cut just to keep the show going. They could have made this year the last one and wrapped up some loose ends in the show.
Like whatever happened to Vivians son and husband?
Does Martin ever find love and settle down?
Does Jack ever find happiness?
What about Jack’s daughters how are they doing the Mom dating another man? ETC, etc, etc.
Yeah, Without a Trace deserved to have a proper series finale not a de facto one. Oh well. I hope the producers of Cold Case, which is a good procedural IMO, will provide a closure for the show.
Good news for those who love the level of originality that CBS brings: Criminal Minds is having a spinoff, with a backdoor pilot in the spring.
It is getting better ratings so far than the CSI trifecta. And last season it had the same demo rating as NCIS, whose spinoff just premiered with huge #’s. I’m guessing either it’ll take the place of one of the low-rated Sunday dramas (I’m expecting small things from 3 Rivers too.) or maybe Good Wife though that show at least shows they occasionally go outside crimes.
Given Bang’s #’s so far, I’m thinking that Bang will start off Wednesdays next season as people have predicted, paired with a new comedy.
For Fridays, I like looking at it with a *1.5 scale. Which would put Ghost right below Mentalist, Medium right above Good Wife, & Numbers somewhat above Gary Unmarried. Sounds about right to me.
There is an article in the Hollywood Reporter that Greg Plagemen, the Co-showrunner of Cold Case, just signed a new deal to continue working on the show and with WB TV. Probably doesn’t mean squat for the show though.
I like Cold Case alot, but realistically it’s probably time for it to end after this season. The cast is getting older and I don’t think this show really attracts many younger viewers. Also, the music and production costs are just going to continue to climb.
Holly, what I meant is I can’t think of any dramas in recent years other than WAT that was already in syndication and was ended due to ratings.
Las Vegas
Not really recent, but Judging Amy
maybe Charmed (though that might have been contract issues)….
j – I doubt CBS would move The Big Bang Theory to their troubled, 8:00 wednesday slot, Bang will be at 9:30 as long as Men is at 9. When Men finishes likely in 3 years, Bang will inherit Men’s slot.
Forg & Stacy – CBS really wanted to keep Trace but they had to let something go. If CBS didnt have so many other well performing dramas, Trace could have been kept. I suggested that if CBS kept Trace they could put it 10pm sundays like the 2006-2007 season and have a Race/Case/Trace trio. But ultimately CBS realized the show was getting older (It was the third oldest drama behind CSI, and CSI Miami). CBS even said they were said to let the show go and though it did well for the troubled Tuesday 10pm slot, ratings were still down overall. Last May it was 50/50 between Case and Trace so a finale wasnt really a priority. This season its a little obvious which long running drama will be axed. So that series should prepare a finale.
Thats the problem with being a network like CBS, every year most of their shows do well, but ultimately they have to make a tough decision on which to let go. This year, I realistically believe that NCIS: LA will be the only new drama renewed for a second year, (Medium is new to CBS but im sure that will get a seventh year), and Cold Case will be the only veteran gone from CBS.
Both Without a Trace and Cold Case were expensive veterans and both needed to cut their costs. It was surprising that Trace got cancelled over Case because the music rights would make it more expensive to produce and it hasn’t been released on DVD but Cold Case does have a smaller cast in comparison to Without a Trace and I think the finances must have in favour of Cold Case.
Jon – a lot of people were suprised that Case was renewed. I belive Bill and Robert both thought Trace would get renewed. I thought it would turn out like a Judging Amy/Joan of Arcadia situation in 2005 where CBS were thinking of keeping 1 over the other but ultimately both were axed. In the end, Case is still around because its a year younger, and still holds up Sunday. CBS alo already axed a veteran from sunday (The Unit) so two would be surprising. Case’s down fall this year is airing at 10 and since numbers will go down from Amazing Race to Three Rivers to Cold Case, Case will get hurt by its Three Rivers lead in. I still think Case will be moved back to 9.
Holly, Charmed on its last season did relatively well for the WB, it was pulling 3-4 million viewers on a Sunday night. I think they ended it because it was already expensive and the 8th and final season’s budget was slashed down resulting to sub par special effects and one of the regular cast Brian Krause was demoted to recurring status. But the show had an announced finale anyway so it was good they ended it with a closure.
Forg – Its ratings on average for its 8th and final season were 3.5 million, which was the same as its 7th season. It was getting older and more expensive so the WB decided to end it. It was probably the right time to end it to but 8 seasons and 178 episodes arent bad.
Add Crossing Jordan to the list of dramas canceled despite being in syndication, Giving us at least 3 in recent years.
Yeah, a show will frequently get an extra season to get to syndication count. After that point, syndication is extremely unlikely to result in extra seasons though, and when it does it is usually comedies (the most recent example being According to Jim; Scrubs is half syndication money and half ABC desperation for comedies).
Cold Case may or may not be moved. CBS still has Miami Trauma and the Canadian shows in the wings. Given they know CC is dead, there’s definitely no point in trying to give it a cushier timeslot until they have tried all their other options AND football is over.
The problem with Cold Case is the same problem with the Sunday night lineup on CBS from last season–CBS Sports. Because of the football game, the primetime lineup was at least 30 minutes late in starting. By the time you get to a 10 PM show, it’s 10:30 or 11:00 before it airs. On Sunday night children have to get up on Monday morning to go to school and adults have to get up and go to work Monday, even if they don’t have to the rest of the week.
If CBS isn’t considering this when they make a decision to cancel Cold Case or not, then they may need to start pre-empting or even joining ‘60 Minutes’ in progress in the 7 PM hour to keep their schedule on schedule.
I love Cold Case. I never miss it and I record it or watch it on TNT as well. Why won’t they put it out on DVD? There is a loyal following for Cold Case. CBS is jeapordizing their entire Sunday schedule as all of the programs are delayed because of the football games on CBS. You can’t even record the programs because none of them start on time!
Donald – Music licensing issues
Tom – I think that CBS will axe Three Rivers after a few airings and bring Cold Case back to 10pm. Hopefully Flashpoint will join the sched, airing new episodes at 10. After thats done, either The Bridge or Miami Trauma will fill in the 10pm slot. I dont think after the likely Three Rivers disaster, CBS would air a new series at 9. Cold Case has been reliable at 9.
This WILL be Cold Case’s final year so its never too early to write a series finale…..
The music in Cold Case is its strength and its weakness, I imagine the show is profitable for Warner Bros but being unable to release it on DVD probably makes it less valuable than say NCIS or CSI. I agree that they need to write a series finale but I imagine it’s in the works.
I think Three Rivers will get 9-10m for its debut but I dread the plethara of Alex O’Loughlin fans who are going to bombared TVBTN if and when it gets pulled.
One of the biggest problems is CBS football. That usually pushes it back at least 15 mins or more behind scedule. After ten people are getting ready for bed etc. Once it gets moved back to nine, I expect ratings will improve a bit. I too think this is it’s last season but the idea that WAT should have been renewed over CC was absurd in my option. Another season of the Jack & Sam will they hook up or will they not show? The cases became secondary to that. Plus, Malone had become nothing more than a bully with a badge.
While it’s not what it once was, CC is still better than WAT was in its final seasons. I just hope they give it a proper sending off. And seven seasons is nothing to sneeze at.
Renewing WAT really wasn’t an option, IMO. CBS was looking to cut expenses and frankly, Kathryn Morris makes less money in salary than Anthony LaPaglia. That’s not to say LaPaglia didn’t deserve the higher pay–he was an established character actor before WAT and the show had been on longer–but at the end of the day when everything else was equal, expenses caused CBS to keep the cheaper show to produce.
I imagine when it gets moved back to 9 p.m., it’s ratings will get a slight boost. This is most likely its last season but seven years is nothing to sneeze at.
It happened again this week: football ran until around 7:30 last night, which pushed all the start times backwards. That means CC didn’t air until nearly 10:30. How is it fair to judge whether a show should be renewed if it can’t even air in its 10 PM time slot?