Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season:
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Dollhouse (F) | 0.32 |
| Brothers (F) | 0.36 |
| Fringe | 0.74 |
| Bones | 0.91 |
| Glee | 1.00 |
| American Dad | 1.17 |
| The Simpsons | 1.39 |
| The Cleveland Show | 1.59 |
| Family Guy | 1.68 |
| House | 2.17 |
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In the reality distortion field that surrounds Dollhouse do its continuing terrible ratings even matter for its chances of being canceled? At some point they have to, and I don’t think its likely we will see Dollhouse or Brothers on the Fox schedule next season.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday’s have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:
- (p) – Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Dollhouse will definitely be cancelled. Brothers is 50/50 because of possible Till Death situation, but I see it also being canned. Fringe will likely be renewed.
i think Dollhouse might be renewed for the same reasons FOX renews Til Death dirt cheap scripted shows are profitable
I’m not worried about Fringe. If things get too tough for it on Thursdays, they’ll just move it to Monday or Tuesday.
I know it’s a minority opinion, but Lie to Me is the X-factor for Dollhouse. Fox could kill Dollhouse and air Lie on Fridays… or see the budget difference between the two and keep Dollhouse.
“I don’t think its likely we will see Dollhouse or Brothers on the Fox schedule next season”
Err, are we using the index for 10/11 renewals or 09/10 backorders?
I expect the Cleveland show to slide down the index throughout the season, but it’s still likely a lock for renewal. I’m concerned about American Dad! because it has something of a “plum” timeslot behind family guy. Since KOTH left it’s the “weak link” of Fox’s Sunday Nights.
Err, are we using the index for 10/11 renewals or 09/10 backorders?
The index is for 10/11 renewals, but new shows particularly low on the index are unlikely to get backorders.
Fox throw Fringe to die on Thursdays lol
I think that JJ Abrams has enough clout to protect Fringe if need be.
Maybe they should switch Lie and Fringe
Lie to Me is a VERY expensive show for FOX if it came to Dollhouse vs Lie to Me i think Dollhouse would win
The index is for 10/11 renewals, but new shows particularly low on the index are unlikely to get backorders.
I know that, but I’m trying to bait them into predictions
I don’t think you should have put the (S) for syndication next to American Dad. It’s already for sure that they’re putting it through a complete fifth season, and the finale will be the 100th episode. Its renewal chances are unaffected by the syndication.
johnthemon
Cleveland show has already been renewed for a second season
first season is 22 episodes
second season is 13, so far
Simpsons have been renewed too
@ Tar, you are deluding yourself. Just thought you should know. Lie to Me can’t be that much more expensive than Dollhouse.
@ Derrick, I know that it already has a second season, I never said it wouldn’t get renewed. I’m sorry if my statements were confusing. I only meant that it won’t hold a 1.59 on the index throughout the season.
johnthemon, that makes sense on American Dad.
Tim Roth (Lie to Me) – $250000 an episode = just one cast member’s per episode salary in season 1 (might be more this season)
@ Tar, each of the six members of the simpsons cast get $500,000 per episode. That’s $3,000,000 per episode just for the main cast.
@johnthemon
Good point, but you have to consider that said cast members didn’t make that in their second season on the show. Just like the Friends cast and Seinfeld cast didn’t have high salaries until later on in the shows lifespan. Lie to Me is in its fledgling stages still, by definition.
Are you really trying to compare salaries of The Simpsons vs. Lie to Me? One show has been on the air for almost 2 decades!
Past Life will be axed, it hasn’t even aired and I’ve been calling it. I base that on absolutely nothing but that it sounds like a crappy clone of Medium.
Past Life’s quick death will spare Fringe.
I have no clue what will happen with FOX’s Friday shows since they are in a “distorted reality”. I mean FOX gets better ratings from their SATURDAY lineup of COPS and America’s Most Wanted and Saturdays are a graveyard/ghosttown with tumbleweeds. Can these shows be cheaper than reality shows or have enough syndication/DVD or other alternative revenue streams to actually make it better for FOX to stick with them?? I just don’t get it.
As for Fringe, hopefully with premieres of the heavy hitters over, the show can bounce back a little. If ratings this week drop below last week’s, then the show is definitely in trouble.
@ Brad and Dylan, that is very true, but Lie To Me has double the advertising time. I suppose it is still a bad comparison however…
@johnthemon
It wasn’t the greatest
@ johnthemon says:
“you are deluding yourself. Just thought you should know. Lie to Me can’t be that much more expensive than Dollhouse”.
You are aware that one of the conditions of Dollhouse’s renewal was that it cut costs by quite a bit and that the Fox Studio agreed to pay more of it’s costs (and therefore reduce what the Fox Network has to pay)?
And this is what Robert Seidman said in May:
“they apparently got the costs for Dollhouse down to something extremely (rivaling cable production costs, and in some cases cheaper from what I hear) low”.
There’s a very easy way to know FOX is going to AXE Fringe:
They’ve given it a full season order. If they’re going to axe the show, they’ll put it on hiatus and then bring it back on Friday, like Prison Break. Those episodes, all 22 of them, are going to be made. I doubt they seriously want to eat all that money, so they’ll broadcast the episodes. But WHEN they broadcast them is key.
I’ve almost given up on trying to predict what Fox is going to do on Friday’s, however what may very well be my final prediction for the slot is that we’ll see a Lie To Me/Dollhouse pairing from mid season and if Lie To Me can take off out of House like it should then that might not be a bad move. Then again it might be.
i am not worried about fringe like i am not worried about smalllville
I’m not going to make a prediction about Dollhouse until it’s aired a few more episodes and we see whether the audience grows or not. The low cost and low expectations of the show make it a complete wildcard.
I’m amused to see Fringe is doing poorly, I thought it was considered one of last season’s massive successes (and I was annoyed at a pseudo-science thing getting that kind of support while DH was stuck on Friday with the increasingly bad robot show.) But that said, it too needs a few more weeks for the ratings to stabilize.
For some reason, I THINK dollhouse will be canceled in may…meaning it might get full season.
Remember, Bones got a 2 year pickup, so it will definitely be back.
I think Dollhouse has a pretty good chance of coming back considering it got renewed with horrible numbers. With the cost cuts, Fox is probably earning as much as they did last year.
Bill once again I agree
Dollhouse will likely air all episodes by December and could be replaced by Lie to Me.
I did notice you put Fringe in danger, but the series does have a lot of competition from veteran shows so, Id give the series some slack.
I think besides Dollhouse and Brothers every FOX scripted series has a good chance to return in 2011.
Does anyone agree??
If I remember correctly both Bones and The Cleveland Show have two year contracts so they aren’t going to be canceled this season no matter where their numbers go.
Fringe is a lock for renewal as its been thrown into that Thursday death slot of 9/8C.
Bill, I think that time slot should have its own designation at this point!
Lizard
Lizardman – I agree, Fringe will only be renewed, because FOX understands that Thursday at 9 is one of the most Competitive slots, so they have to give the series slack. They understand that Fringe wont beat the competition however if it does well in the demos its a lock. And yes Bones has a 2 season contract through 2010-2011 and Cleveland has 35 episodes total ordered.
id be surprised if fringe is in any danger fox surly new putting it in that slot it wast going to do really well and bones will definalty be coming back as alreaady been renewed for a sixth season.
Its simple…
No Danger for 2010-2011
24 (possibly final season)
House (Easily renewed)
Bones (Already renewed)
Fringe (FOX wont give up on this drama)
Lie to Me (50/50 on coming back; possibly moved to fridays)
Glee (airing after Idol will guarantee a second year)
The Simpsons (Already renewed)
Family Guy (Already renewed)
American Dad (Already renewed)
The Cleveland Show (Already renewed)
Danger
Til Death (only renewed for syndication, likely gone)
Brothers (low ratings puts it in danger)
Dollhouse (easily gone by December)
Not yet premiered
Human Target
Past Life
Sons of Tucson
It may end up getting picked up by a cable network.
If FOX picks up Abrams’ Scrubs rip-off, Fringe will so stay.
How will Abrams pull off time travel in a Scrubs rip-off?
I don’t know…all I know is that FOX ordered a medical comedy pilot from Abrams.
And all I know is Abrams uses time travel in pretty much everything he touches.
Did FOX order Abrams as a series for midseason or a potential series for 10-11??
Dan, they ordered a pilot (and maybe just a script at this point, it’s rather early for pilot orders), which would potentially be for 10-11.
@Julia: Felicity had time travel?
And I don’t remember the third Mission Impossible movie having any time travel…
I just had this discussion with someone the other night. Felicity had time travel in the last four episodes or so. Felicity went back in time to when she slept with Noel and changed her decisions. Of course, it turned out to all be a fever dream and made completely pointless in the last five minutes of the finale.
As for MI, Abrams didn’t write it, just directed it, so it has an excuse.
I like Dollhouse (don’t love it) but I can’t see how Fox can renew it. It’s ratings are terrible right out of the gate. If the show would have been on SciFi…er SyFy instead then it would probably run as long as it wants. I hope Joss Whedon realizes that cable is where he needs to be.
Julia – That makes sense, maybe if Sons of Tucson does well, FOX could pair the two in 10-11.
Scott – I like the premise of Dollhouse, but with FOX actually having some success with their 2 sophomore dramas and freshman dramas, I cant see how Dollhouse can continue. Ratings are bad even for friday standards.
Oh i remember the time travel plot on Felicity, it was seriously a WTF moment especially for a show that is ending, it was almost convincing that it wasn’t a dream LOL.
I wonder if Til Death will still survive until 10-11 season . When Brothers rerun on Sunday performed better, I thought there’s a chance that they could transfer that show (along with Til Death) on Sundays if the current Friday block collapses fully (I seriously think Smallville could out rate them in the succeeding weeks as last Friday they were already close).
I hope they at least give dollhouse a good endding, Its sad that it didnt catch on, while so many other shows are still here that def should not be. D H is original, hot, brain twisting(prolly the reason people didnt watch cause they cannot understand anything) and funny. I will miss it.
Bones is already picked up for a next season, it’s in zero danger. While not comparing to their other scripted drama, it went UP in it’s premiere this year vs. last, and it’s one of the best Fox showings on a Thursday ever. So, it’s sticking.
Fox’s entire system is skewed because only they and CBS have ratings going up, everyone else is down (CW/NBC/ABC) so their shows on the floating chart are also competing with growth of other shows on their own network.. a rarity.
Fox has a better set schedule then almost anyone.
I think Dollhouse & Brothers are in danger, but Fox is so safe on other nights, they might be willing to play risky because they can afford to. Otherwise, both of those are gone.. Fox will air all 13 “Dollhouse” eps, regardless.. how they air them may matter.
Forg – I though sundays at 7 were a good idea, the problem is that wouldnt last into 2010. FOX is airing Sons of Tucson at 8:30 pushing Cleveland show to 9:30 and American Dad to 7:30.
7:30 American Dad
8:00 The Simpsons
8:30 Sons of Tucson
9:00 Family Guy
9:30 The Cleveland Show
If Brothers is axed, its possible the remaining Til Death could be burned off at 7:00, however its not liekly. With 5 half hour’s of comedy, FOX would need 1 at 7 for some kind of rerun.
Til Death seems very unlikely to survive into 10-11. Stranger things have happened but the way things look with fridays, its not likely. Til Death looks near death.
Chris – If I were FOX I would air 13 episodes of Dollhouse from now until December and double up in December. FOX may as well just get rid of the series that way and find something to replace it come January. Til Death and Brothers should just stay in their slots, it is friday so FOX shouldve expected all 3 series to do badly. Its not like FOX renewed well performing series, put them in a non friday slot and then moved them to fridays (last years Terminator and Prison Break) FOX basically put their 2 worst performers and a new comedy on their worst performing night.
Dollhouse + Til Death + Brothers + Friday = Lowest rated friday in years.
Does anyone else think if FOX cancel Fringe (unlikely, since they must know it’s their schedule that’s at fault and not the show), ABC will pick it up to replace Lost? I can’t see it going off the air altogether even if FOX drop it.
ABC might be willing to give Fringe a shot, but I’d say no. History shows that once a series moves to another network, it looses many viewers and it’s demo rating. Fringe ain’t cheap like Scrubs, and ABC has enough expensive sci-fi shows: V and Flashforward.
Warren – Its unlike FOX would cancel Fringe, since Bones, Fringe is FOX’s oldest drama to make it to a second season. FOX wants to develop it, so Ill say they will keep helping it out. FOX cant live on House and Bones forever.
Dan, who knows TIL DEATH could deft cancellation again haha. I’m not really sure if SONS of TUCSON would work sandwiched on the animation block but we’ll see
Maybe this has already been addressed, but does anyone know how Fringe is doing versus whatever was in its time slot last year?
Michael, Fringe is doing much better. This is directly from Fox PR:
So far this season FRINGE shows substantial gains compared to FOX’s regular programming in the time period last Fall, increasing +37% among Adults 18-49 and +58% in Total Viewers.
Bill: Sweet, thanks! That makes me feel much better.
Forg – Besides not being animated, it does fit in with the style of the other animated shows, much like how Malcolm in the Middle or Arrested Development did. Sons has the theme of dysfunctional family and is better than the midseason series FOX has aired sundays midseason (Free Ride, The Winner, Unhitched, Sit Down Shut Up). I hope Sons comes back. Til Death hasnt premiered its new season yet, but despite last seasons surprise, I really dont think FOX would bring it back.
Bill – FOX seems happy with Fringe so its likely to stay in the 9pm slot all season. Theres not much to compare it to though, the previous 9pm only did OK, Dont Forget the Lyrics, Hell’s Kitchen. But Fringe has done the best in the demo.
Fringe is this season’s sacrificial lamb. They put it against CSI, Grey’s Anatomy and The Office. That’s like when they put Family Guy against Friends and Survivor. They’re killing it.
I guess my point is as Bill pointed out, they know the show would do better in a different time-slot, but they need something that will do marginally well at 9:00 on Thursdays.
Fox can’t run dead air Thursday at 9 p.m. Something has to go there. Fox is putting a lot of confidence in Fringe to air it in such an important time slot.
Dingo – FOX isnt giving up on Fringe, their not gonna axe the series either.
Johnthemon – The difference is when FOX put Family Guy opposite Friends, gthe did it because they didnt care about the series (which is why the series has a better timeslot now,because FOX actually cares) FOX wants Fringe to succeed and they want to take viewers away from the lowering CSI and Grey’s and do better in the demo. While FOX wishes that the overall numbers would be higher, FOX’s initial plan is working.
LIE TO ME IS DEAD DEAD DEAD! I KNOW A SOURCE AT FOX AND THEY ARE HEARING THE SAME THING. IT’S FAR TOO EXPENSIVE AND THE NUMBERS ARE NOT LOOKING GOOD AT ALL.
BYE BYE LIE TO ME! DEAD BY NOVEMBER/DECEMBER!
Michael, I was unsure of your information and sources about Lie To Me, but the caps lock clinched it. You must be right.
Dollhouse will be renewed. My evidence for that is as follows:
“You said Dollhouse would be cancelled last season”
Fox is trying to make nice with Joss Wheadon, but I think they will only go so far. They tried to make Arrested Development work for three seasons.
Eric, while I disagree with your conclusion, I cannot fault your logic!
Eric – Dollhouse being renewed was the most shocking thing last season besides Samantha Who? being axed (and possibly Earl). But it was the first new friday FOX series to be renewed in 10 years. And looking at the numbers last week, we realize what would happen if FOX were to renew a low rated series.
Lie to Me may or may not be renewed. I hope FOX helps it out and airs it tuesdays after Idol until Past Life premieres but it could be pushed to friday.
The Friday night slot killed TSCC and has never been a good spot for Dollhouse; The ratings history shows the decline in TSCC numbers after moving to Friday night; Dollhouse is also fighting for ratings with numerous network season premieres, I am interested in seeing the numbers in a few weeks.
TSCC was already dead, since fall 2008. Moving it to friday night just conviently gave it a slot to burn off the remaining episodes and pair it with Dollhouse.
I wonder why 18-49 ratings dictate what gets cancelled on Friday / Saturday nights.
I watch tv for like 4-5 hours a night, sunday through thursday. Friday night I watch zero (well, maybe an hour: Bill Maher, when i get home drunk). Saturdays I watch football all day and maybe one tv show, but by the time ‘prime time’ hits, I am not watching any tv.
I imagine a good majority of people are the same. With NCAA on Saturday nights, and high school football on Friday nights, that kills a large portion of the 18-49 range immediately.
So why are lower ratings a problem?
Any show that airs Friday or Saturday nights should always rate themselves based on DVR, Internet, and Live vieweings. Not just the live 18-49.
There’s a reason CBS always succeeds on Friday nights. Because CBS caters to the elderly. And the elderly do not go out boozing week after week.
Well I typed out a long response and hit submit and presto: my comment isn’t here.
/sigh.
The paraphrased version: why do 18-49 demos matter on friday / saturday. 18-49 generally leaves the house for high school / college football, parties, weekend vacations, and alcohol.
Shouldn’t every Friday/Saturday show be measured with Live, DVR, Internet, and demos other than 18-49?
CBS rules fridays because CBS caters it’s shows to old people. Old people watch tv on fridays. it’s a no brainer.
Eric, I’m not sure why your comment was trapped by the spam filter, but I freed it.
Advertisers want to pay for eyeballs that see their ads. It’s more than conventional wisdom that DVR viewers skip most ads. 18-49 demo is the typical target demo for broadcast on every night, because those eyeballs are scarce and therefore expensive to buy for advertisers.
18-49 don’t leave the house as much as you might think they do. Fridays are lower than Thursdays with 18-49s, but not by as much as people generally assume. Last Thursday ~38% of adults 18-49 were watching TV. On Friday that dropped to ~30%. you could make your argument almost any night, since most any night most 18-49s are not watching TV!
Do the HUT levels include people watching shows on DVR?
Holly, good question. I don’t know for sure.
i’ll ask.
Thanks
One question I have to ask does this show have strong DVD and international sales? If so then the higher-ups might keep it on the air.
Dollhouse had pretty weak DVD sales, it was in the top sales list for only a single week.
What happened to all the Joss Whedon Fans? Here is what I dont get: The show has a gorgeous cast a good portion of which are seasoned actors from other Whedon shows, it is run by Whedon who has a huge cult following, its not on the Can’t Win Network (or its old call letters) or by the Fox that moved episodes around (ex: Firefly), and finally its has sort of not so much sci-fi feel that a show like Lost has. So why are the Numbers so Low? Maybe Fox should just create a show called ACID (Army Criminal Investigation Command), and completely rip off NCIS. (…ok I want the creative rights to that!)
Finally what could Fox air that would make money on a Friday? Clearly no show based on science fiction works on network TV, and I don’t get why, as the top 20 movies are almost all science fiction or fantasy based. Why does the public like
Some Guy Named John, as a big Joss Whedon fan, I think the biggest problem with the show is that the first 10 episodes of season 1 were middling to terrible, quality wise. Only the most hardcore fans are going to stick with a series and buy a DVD set that contains that many weak episodes.
These days you have to hook people right from the pilot or you’re doomed. Don’t hook them until episode 11 and you’re really screwed.
I say give Dollhouse the axe, it tried it failed. Even the fans that whined to get it back on the air don’t seem to be into it. I was a huge Buffy fan, but Dollhouse just doesn’t do it for me, it feels like it tries too hard.
I think when Lie to Me is added to the index, you should give it the (P) descriptor for being right after House.
I think Fringe will survive for all the reasons I said it would last season. It may get beat up but it will survive. However, this tack they’ve taken of ignoring the season one finale for several episodes is not a good one. It’s going to irritate people (me, for one). OTOH, the notion that we have all these characters from the other universe walking around spying on our universe is a good one, if they handle it right. Nice to see Baldy again.
I think Dollhouse is doomed for all the reasons I said last season AND now the fact that they blew the chance to open the season with a couple barn burning episodes. In other words, while they were renewed because Joss promised the show would be better, that they would address their issues, and that the show would be cheap, those reasons don’t matter if the ratings continue to drop. I always assumed Fox renewed Dollhouse on the premise that its lowest ratings in season one would be the baseline for season two, given its cost and Joss; promises.
Unless somehow Dollhouse can pull out a 1.0-1.5 in the next couple episodes (the higher the better), it’s doomed.
The girl from Dollhouse was on Letterman (Elizah). She painted herself as a pot smoking liberal from New England who hunts animals and has become an enemy of PETA. For a second there, I thought I was watching United States of Tara. There might be a ratings bump this Friday.
Yeah, Eliza got into bow-hunting and actually did down a deer or something – which she is careful to explain she actually ate, so technically it wasn’t “sport hunting”.
I doubt her appearance will boost the ratings much. Some decent Fox promo might, but I wonder if they think it’s worth it at this point. If the next two episodes aren’t killer stuff and cause it to trend upward, it’s doomed.
I hope dollhouse does get renewed it seems like a show that if given a long life span will evolve into something entirely out of this world. It’s a good show already season 1 episode 2 and 11 were two of my favorite those eps were just kick ass.