Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season:
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F) | 0.45 |
| Parks & Recreation | 0.68 |
| Mercy | 0.86 |
| Law & Order: SVU | 0.94 |
| Community | 1.01 |
| Heroes | 1.05 |
| The Office | 1.46 |
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You’ll not find a bigger fan of the Law & Order franchise than me, but now that the show has hit the 20th season milestone, the ratings say its time to be put out to pasture. Some think Parks & Recreation was renewed to keep Amy Poehler happy. With its current ratings, NBC’s likely to cancel the show and find some other way to cheer her up.
Although, SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it’s limited run, I’m not including it.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday’s have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:
- (p) – Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I think Parks might be renewed or for at least a full season.
I think mercy is unlikely to make it to 13 episodes let alone be renewed at the end of the season….
i think Parks will definately be cancelled awful show + bad ratings even when paired with the office 100 Questions will probably take over in Midseason Mercy and Trauma will have their 13 episodes but that will be it for them NBC still has 4 more dramas to premiere (Persons Unknown , Chuck,Parenthood and Day One)
NBC and CW should honestly have their own Renew/Cancel index as to whether the network itself will last to next season.
Wow. You think Heroes has a chance of being renewed? Unless they cut the budget WAY down and retool the show, I think it’s goose is cooked.
Heroes is NBC’s best drama in the demos right now its not going anywhere unless NBC finds a huge hit in Parenthood or Persons Unknown (Day One is just a mini series)
@nkinsey: The index solely goes off the network’s scripted 18-49 average. And frighteningly enough, Heroes is better than NBC’s average.
That said, especially if the actual 18-49 numbers are forbidden, perhaps they could add per episode costs to the column, which would be suggestive in either/or cases. Listing the producer would also be suggestive, especially come April. Something like:
Program | R/C Index | Timeslot | Producer | License Fee
I could not stomach even one episode of Parks. It just is not funny.
As for L&O – I have been a loyal viewer for all the years but the out right blatant liberal bias in last week’s opener ended that for me. It went too far left. I’m outta there!
i was going to say see ya NBC and Cw
That said, especially if the actual 18-49 numbers are forbidden, perhaps they could add per episode costs to the column, which would be suggestive in either/or cases. Listing the producer would also be suggestive, especially come April.
If you could supply the cost per episode, they might consider it, but as it is we have no reliable access to that information.
I like Parks & Rec, but it’s not my favorite show by any means. NBC is in trouble, but it’s come out of trouble before (the 70’s were awful for NBC).
Where would Chuck fit into this renew/cancel based upon end of season numbers last year?
Chuck would probably be just under community
If NBC won’t renew L&O, TNT would jump at the chance to pick it up. And even if that doesn’t happen NBCU would move it to USA like they did with CI.
@marenamoo Chuck would most likely be around the same area as Mercy’s 0.86, it seemed to be setting at around a 2.3 A18-49 rating.
@marenamoo, you win the “first Chuck” award! With all of NBC’s ratings down, Chuck would look pretty good, but I think it’s completely apples/oranges.
Tom, no question that Law & Order could go to first run on cable if the economics can be made to work, but this is almost certainly it’s last season on NBC.
@Tom (the other one)
The index considers cancellation to apply only to that network; last season’s index had L&O in trouble for most of the year, but everyone involved stated it would simply end up on TNT if not renewed by NBC.
Even if L&O does move, they are gonna have to stop the liberal messaged scripts in order to keep an audience.
I think L&O could survive on NBC with a 2.2 18-49 rating. And NBC could hype next season as Breaking, not tying, Gunsmoke’s record.
L&O will go to season 21, if for no other reason than bragging rights: “Longest Running Drama EVER!” Take that, Gunsmoke!
Parks + Rec = CANCELLED! (and replaced by whatever was supposed to slot between Biggest Loser and Jay on Tuesday in March
Community is a fantastic show.
You should watch it.
Why would NBC renew Heroes next year after where its ratings are? Does it do really well on dvd or something like that?
Bill, does the index account for the last two weeks for shows that had their premiere the week before last? For instance does this reflect the week where Community premiered with a 3.8, or just its 2.7 from last week?
@MarsPolarLander
So if they were slanted mroe towards teh right would you watch it? What exactly made it an entirley liberal episode? The Linus Roache character had a pretty libertarian if not flat-out conservative viewpoint on torture.
I wouldn’t be surprised if L&O does get renewed in some form for a 21st season despite what “agenda” it may be characterized as having.
the128boy, since the “season” officially began on Sept. 21, that’s when the period covered by the Index began.
I agree with all that they will probably renew it for the bragging rights. I really think that’s why they renewed it this year.
And L&O is liberal?! Are you sure? Maybe SVU is a little more progressive, but the original is pretty conservative. Every suspect is of course lying. The detectives can be snarky to witnesses even, since they are the good guys and everyone involved with the investigation are trash. Pretty conservative. But hey, I’m not complaining. They balance it out with SVU, where the detectives actually have deeper personalities.
When do the Olympics start?
I would suggest that nothing is at risk before then as NBC can use the post Olympics to ‘retool’ the whole schedule.
I think the combination of syndication revenue and rerun ability will keep L&O on the air. Personally I think they should move the show to Saturday at 10pm – of the 2 Friday and 3 Saturday night timeslots available, that one seems to get the most viewers.
The next question would be if it doesn’t get picked up by a cable station, what does it mean to the rest of the franchise? SVU’s ratings are down as it is – will they be able to afford to keep both Meloni and Hargitay? 4/5ths of CI’s main cast just got gutted, so who knows how that will do next season.
Fortunately only show I watch on NBC is the Office so index looks good to me
Although I am liking Community so wouldn’t want that to disappear too soon.
P&R has to go and b4 May if NBC wants to try to salvage Thursdays this season. Hopefully 30 Rock comes back decently for them. Will be interesting to see what happens with Mercy. Could Heroes be renewed if costs kept down? Is the show getting close to syndication – it’s in season 4 but I think strike messed with S2, so would a fifth season still leave them short?
@ Jeff, Heroes has done very well on DVD, but that’s not why it’s likely to be renewed. The real reason is NBC is starting to go the way of the CW. They’ll take whatever they can get. I only hope that the creative team decides to make it the last season, so it can have a proper end.
i love “law and order” and agree that it will be picked up elsewhere…
HOWEVER…
i couldn’t believe how left leaning the season opener was…it was good telivision, but they run the risk of running off some of their viewers with that strong and odvious of a slant…
hmm…did i spell odvious right?
oh well…
oops…television…sorry about that.
Again, how was it so liberally biased?
Thanks for the clarification Bill!
Wow, how sad is it that despite not being able to top the 3.0 mark Heroes is the second biggest show on NBC right now…?
Elsewhere I still think Parks is gone mid season (unless it does a u-turn when Community moves to 8, which I doubt) and replaced by 100 Questions, which in turn allows NBC to keep Biggest Loser as 2-hours rather than 90-minutes.
left leaning???? what you mean someone had the balls to question the bush administration? how dare them!!!!!!
@craig the olympics are still in Febuary and finish feb 28th
It’s sad when Heroes is the #2 show in the index with how poorly it’s doing this year. NBC better hope for a strong post Olympics run.
Bill I agree,
This will likely be the final year for L&O, and hopefully it will get a proper finale.
I dont agree that Heroes will be renewed for 2010-2011. With really bad premiere ratings, NBC may as well end it after this year.
SVU, Office, 30 Rock, and Community despite a decline will without a doubt all return for 2010-2011.
Parks will likely be gone by May, and if Southland doesnt hold up, it may be gone too.
Does anyone agree?
I’m curious, what does the F by L&O mean? Franchise? Finished?
And NBC has to be wincing. Out of comparison, what would Leno’s number be?
Oh, I just realized the F means Friday since that night has lower audience expectations.
I predict Mercy and Trauma will be gone by late October if they don’t stay above 2.0 in A18-49. Isn’t that why they have Southland, L&O (parked on Friday), Chuck and Day One in reserve. NBC is never going to have original scripted show in the summer the talk about extending Chuck’s season into the summer is not credible, considering how cash squeezed General Electric (NBC’s parent company) is. NBC also has sitcoms in waiting and reality shows, so Parks could be gone before the end of the year. This is really Parks’ do-over, isn’t it. Community will be probably stick around longer.
Not that my opinion matters, but I do believe Law & Order will be renewed for one more season just so it can be the longest running US primetime drama.
Dick Wolf still has influence thanks to SVU.
I also think L&0 would get a 21st season regardless of the ratings performance of the 20th season. I don’t think that NBC and Dick Wolfe would just let a 20-year old show end without a grand send-off. They will probably have a shortened 21st season (10-13 episodes) and NBC will hype the final season just like ER.
Drew – yep F means friday, and networks have lower expectations for fridays.
Heradite – You may be right about L&O getting another year. It currently has 16 episodes for this season however if L&O gets axed, NBC will only have SVU (all other dramas are likely gone).
It all depends on whether or not NBC can find successful new dramas this season.
Heroes, Trauma, Mercy look like they may be on their way out (ratings are bad and all 3 are scheduled to be replaced)
forg – I agree, NBC would likely give L&O a send off. Id say with SVU and Friday Night Lights the only dramas definitely coming back for 10-11, Law and Order has a good chance for renewal too.
I think its funny how NBC went from having a good amount of well performing dramas to only having SVU perform the best. Lets look down the list of NBC’s few well performing dramas that NBC has gotten rid of over the years.
Crossing Jordan – (2001-2007) This series did well until it got a midseason slot its last year and averaged 6 million viewers. The show would have luckily dwindled since, but it still did well.
Las Vegas – (2003-2008) Another well performing show that NBC axed because of high production costs, yet ratings were great for a friday.
Medium – (2005-2009 NBC) One of NBC’s best performing dramas the past few years, NBC never treated it right, and axed the show after a 22 episode deal couldnt be reached. Luckily CBS airs the series now.
Life – (2007-2009) This was one of the few NBC dramas to (besides Lipstick Jungle) to be axed after its second year. Unfortunately low ratings sealed this great shows fate.
ER – (1994-2009) This series had to end sometime, and luckily as NBC was getting ready for Jay Leno to arrive Mon-Fri 10pm, this veteran got a proper sendoff.
All other axed dramas that premiered since 2001 that arent on this list only lasted 1 season. Criminal Intent and Friday Night Lights are now owned by USA and DirecTV respectively and only air seasonal repeats on NBC.
“It all depends on whether or not NBC can find successful new dramas this season.”
Southland better be a surprise hit on Fridays cause otherwise it’s all on Parenthood.
In fairness the midseason shows of NBC are way more promising than the new fall shows so hopefully they could find a hit there. I’m counting on Parenthood to do well.
Dan, the Las Vegas cancellation shocked me back then, I didn’t consider that show was in danger at all. Crossing Jordan suffered from long breaks when the lead star was pregnant.
thursdays on nbc are so boring now
no Earl, and 30 rocks not on for a few more weeks
and scrubs was always my favorite but it moved to ABC and i don’t even know anymore with all these changes (thanks obama) The Office is the only really good show on nbc
community is pretty good but im still getting into it and parks and rec has been getting better but still not good
but i’ve been really happy with ABCs shows this year so far
if it wasnt for Greys, id probably call it my favorite network
and the dancing
forg – well besides Southland, NBC hasnt had a midseason show succeed or renewed since Medium. (OK They did renew Lipstick Jungle, but Jungle never did well so its more because NBC like Brooke Shields) But it seems that NBC’s midseason series are given less breaks. (Did you notice, besides Southland and Kings last spring all of NBC’s new dramas were held until Summer. Kings failed on its own though.
Las Vegas, shocked me too, but its more because of the strike that NBC let it go. NBC actually had a field day with renewing dramas for 08-09 (even renewing low rated shows that they knew wouldnt succeed) Besides veteran Las Vegas, in 2008, NBC only cancelled freshman Bionic Woman and Journeyman. So it seems NBC felt they could get rid ouf Vegas.
@MarsPolarLander You are supposedly a longtime L&O viewer but are just now figuring out McCoy is a liberal? Fortunately for you, Palin’s book comes out in November to keep you busy on Friday nights instead. (I bet it has small words and lots of pictures). And the only thing it needs to change to get more viewers is its time slot. Keep your political ravings out of it.
LAW AND ORDER is starting a Boston Legal political show instead of a crime show..one more and I’m done and I’ve watch the show for 15 years.
the above post…it has nothing to do with “McCoy” being a liberal its
about not having to deal with that crap during a entertainment show….
L&O only started down this track last year…
I’m a conservative, but my favorite show of all time is the West Wing..because i knew what the show was about and enjoyed the acting and storylines…L&O is not like West Wing is the plot so go back to the old days and i’ll start watching again if the show goes back to normal this friday.
I just hope they do an ACORN type story and see what people say then….
West Wing was another series that ended at the right time, but still was doing well. It follows more of a storyline while Law & Order doesnt to some extent.
Heroes is still good people!!! Why all the hate, maybe if you would’ve came back after the horrid second season you would know, so don;t judge unless you’ve watched all up to date, then judge, cause the last ep was the best I’ve seen in a long time. I hope it gets renewed. Some how I still have hope that people will watch again, cause its still good.Better than all those dumb cop shows on TV.
Wow, since Obama took over the conservatives cry about everything these days…even TV shows. What’s next: Law & Order promotes socialism? Grow up. 24 is one of the most conservative shows on television and that doesn’t bother me. Why? It’s just a TV show! Just feel good about the fact that you torture junkies can still get your fix on Fox.
And no, @tvmegafan, Heroes is NOT good. I’d take any dumb cop, medical, or lawyer drama anyday and I’m a big comic book fan. Heroes is THAT bad.
I’ve watched every episode of Heroes and will continue to do so. However, it has pretty much sucked since season 1. 3 was slightly better then season 2 but don’t act like it was great television.
Im not commenting on the quality of Heroes, but seasonal ratings arent great.
I would like to point one thing out that most people seem to be forgetting for now, (I’m not sure about Chuck or Day One) but Heroes and Law & Order: SVU seem to be NBC’s best drama’s. I’m not sure Heroes budget was massively cut but even this years first two week of DVD sales for its third season did yeild a good $14.5 million in revenue. So Heroes in the long term (plus if NBC I’m sure can get into the shows digital fan bade) it may be more profitable in comparison to other shows that in easier timeslots are struggling: MERCY.
Parks and Rec has been improving quality-wise, it’s a shame that it’ll probably be cancelled by the time it really hits its stride. Comedies always take some time to find their feet so I’m not surprised it started weak.
If they wanted Parks to succeed they should have given it the post-Office slot, since it’s supposed to be “kind of” an unrelated Office spinoff. I really think 30 Rock can stand on its own at this point and should be aired at 8:00 to give Community the support it needs to establish a strong foothold. But that’s just my humble opinion, I know it won’t happen.
Community’s second episode was great by the way, i can see a lot of potential growth in the series.
The thing is 100 Questions looks like one of the unfunniest shows of all time – rivaling Brothers – and it’ll likely bomb when it replaces Parks too.
Its only early in the season but IMO they should at least keep Mercy around to see how it goes. Its not a bad show. Its just because its on NBC no-one really gives it a go anymore. Trauma on the otherhand was bad. Mercy had a kind of Grey’s type feel to it and i could see it working but obviously you US Viewers always let the good shows slip. Oh well i guess thats the life of US TV.
(Flashback 2001)
Wow the Liberals are complaning about everything now that Bush took over even TV Shows. What’s Next 24 Promotes torture. The West Wing is one of the most liberal shows on TV. If you don’t like it Don’t Watch it.
I’m still suprised that with the Budget/Ratings scenarion that SNL Thrusday was not picked up for 22 episodes.
Nice community is looking good! Cut Parks out of its misery
NBC will do better when Celebrity Apprentice returns Midseason on Sundays 9-11! They have The Marriage Ref, Day One, 100 Questions, Parenthood, Chuck, all coming out and plus all the shows now like Law and Order SVU, The Biggest Loser, The Office, 30 Rock, Community, Law and Order, Southland, Dateline NBC, and Winter Olympics to promote all these shows. I think Celebrity Apprentice will be a winner because I have a feeling they will make it better than the past two seasons.
I can tell Parks wasnt really a favorite at NBC. It will get a full year but Its likely to be replaced with 100 questions.
NBC has a lot of new dramas and reality shows fo midseason and without 10pm, if shows dont do well this fall, they wont bother to put any interest in them.
Mercy and Trauma woill last until December likely, and hopefully air all episodes but if numbers dont improve, both will be done.
Heroes should end after this season, and hopefully Southland doesnt bomb when it premieres on October 23, out of L&O.
First of all Heroes should not be in The Green spot.That spot should be for Mercy.If Mercy can keep its ratings from the episode 1,it will no doubt be renewed.
Heroes is only in the green because of the demo. Realistically, NBC would likely let the series go, to do ratings being significantly lower. Mercy I could see being gone soon, NBC had originally planned it for midseason anyway.
I wish people would stop with the political talk on a TV board. It’s making me nauseous. With that said, I hope Mercy gets the boot and they move Community to 9. It’s probably my favorite of the new shows this year. Chevy Chase hasn’t been this funny in DECADES!
Good to see Heroes in the green. I hope it does stick around. The series has FINALLY gotten back to being great.
I wish NBC would leave Community at 9:30 after The Office if they want to develop it into a hit. 30 Rock can lead off the night at 8.
Its really hilarious that NBC’s once struggling comedy is now one of its highest rated scripted series. http://www.medialifemagazine.com/News2005/april05/apr25/3_wed/news2wednesday.html
They have Celebrity Apprentice on from 9-11pm
“Its really hilarious that NBC’s once struggling comedy is now one of its highest rated scripted series. http://www.medialifemagazine.com/News2005/april05/apr25/3_wed/news2wednesday.html”
Looking back on that now, it’s kind of hilarious to read that now. It’s also kind of sad, because back then a 3.1 was considered low while it’s decent nowadays. And this was only a few years ago.
Sometimes, once in a while, a show comes along and bucks the trend of continual dropping, and The Office is one of those rare shows.
lAW AND Order should not be counted out yet
NBC has moved it so many times that I have to search for it so I can see it. 8 pm time slot is not great for the show. The need some promotion for the show it has a great cast and still worth watching!
If Jay Leno fails NBC will need 5 hours of programing every week
and say for Jay it is the same show that most people did not watch at 11:35 now at 10PM I would rather have a good old fashion variety show than Jay 5 nights a week.
Mumbo – it was sad when NBC axed Coupling for having 9 million viewers. All of their successful comedies were so much higher, Friends, Frasier, Will & Grace. Now 7 million is considered amazing.
Its funny that The Office was the underdog that wouldnt live to see the 2005-2006 season. NBC had high hopes for the failed series.
@Scott
“And no, @tvmegafan, Heroes is NOT good. I’d take any dumb cop, medical, or lawyer drama anyday and I’m a big comic book fan. Heroes is THAT bad.”
AHAHAHAHA ur joking rite? Heroes is NOT BADDDDDD, its the opposite, and better than most of the drama/scifi tv shows out there. If ur a comic book fan, then what is good hmmmm? This is the only show that has ordinary people waking up with extraordinary ability. Tell me, did u see season one? Well, that is ur opinion, not a fact.
“And no, @tvmegafan, Heroes is NOT good. I’d take any dumb cop, medical, or lawyer drama anyday and I’m a big comic book fan. Heroes is THAT bad.”
Im not gonna sit here and tell you your wrong, but to flat out say Heroes is bad like its fact, is damn ignorant. People should be able to watch what they wanna watch and be left in peace. Not get criticized for it.
And for the record, Im pretty darn sure Heroes will get renewed. Although it may not get very good numbers(not that their reliable)but the show is massively popular worldwide. Not to mention how many people watch it online and in other formats. NBC has their own rating system, calculating all the formats, not just TV. In the U.S. alone, Heroes averaged 14 million or so viewers an episode last season and this season I believe. unfortunately those numbers dont really matter, but my point is, Heroes didnt start getting crappy ratings, just because it got bad or people didnt like it… but simply because people just dont watch Live TV anymore.
Its becoming outdated.
Who cares about keeping Amy Poehler happy? She’s NOT funny. She oversells every joke. She mugs for the camera. She’s annoying. Parks & Rec would be a much better show without her. Weekend Update sucks with her. Her movie with Tina Fey sucked and, boy, it takes a lot to make something with Tina Fey unwatchable.
NBC needs to make Amy Poehler go away.
Gunsmoke ran for 633 episodes. Law & Order is only up to 434. Gunsmoke didn’t stay on for 20 years to stroke some hack copshow producer’s ego, either.
Gunsmoke will NEVER be supplanted as the longest-running primetime scripted drama in American TV history.
Though it should be said, it was creatively spent after eight or nine seasons. Law & Order was never creative to begin with, so not an issue there.
It takes a lot to make anything with Tina Fey watchable. As the ratings for 30 Rock amply demonstrate.
Guys…… Park and rec is actully a great show, like honestly give it a chance to grow, watch it tonight, it is actully halriousm the office people are grnuis
“I just hope they do an ACORN type story and see what people say then….”
If Law and Order did a story ripped from the ACORN scandal, it would involve rich white people registering each other to vote while bringing in underage third world prostitutes who also cleaned their houses. It would be even more ridiculous than the average episode of the last couple of seasons
I honestly don’t have time for P&R. I tried it, and it just doesn’t work. I only want to watch so many documentary style shows (none of which make any sense because there couldn’t possibly be a documentary crew there all the time, and in all those different places–who’s MAKING these documentaries? God?)
How exactly do I give any show a ‘chance to grow’? I’m not a network exec. I’m not part of a Nielsen family. I think what you’re saying is “don’t criticize this show because I like it, and it should keep running until I don’t like it anymore.” Okay, so where were you when they canceled all those shows I liked that you didn’t watch?
Is the renew/cancel index going to be updated with STD 18-49 Rating and Network Avg STD 18-49 rating? I think having those numbers gives us a better idea what we’re looking at.
Brian D, sadly the R/C Index will not be showing those 18-49 averages for either shows or networks this season, so that we can keep all the R/C posts visible for the entire season. Under recent agreement with Nielsen, we cannot keep posts on the site with ratings list beyond 2 weeks of publication date.
Jon – actually the highest Heroes averaged last season was 10 million viewers and that was for its 2 hour season premiere. If you look at the episode list on wikipedia (referenced) The numbers have been consistently dropping since season 1. Its possible Heroes time has run out.
As for everybody talking about Parks and Recreation, the series will probably be axed by May. Amy Poehler is usually funny its just that this series is trying to hard to be The Office and its not.
“AHAHAHAHA ur joking rite? Heroes is NOT BADDDDDD, its the opposite, and better than most of the drama/scifi tv shows out there. If ur a comic book fan, then what is good hmmmm? This is the only show that has ordinary people waking up with extraordinary ability. Tell me, did u see season one? Well, that is ur opinion, not a fact.”
A couple of points:
Yes, season one was good, great even.
It’s not good now, not by a long shot.
I can think of multiple sci-fi shows that it is worse than (Warehouse 13 and Eureka to name a few), and many, many more dramas.
Most “comic book fans” agree that the show is terrible now, as well as most critics.
Heroes is awful right now and if the ratings continue to slip, it won’t be back for season 5, sorry.
Thanks for the info Bill while this news somewhat saddens me as 2 weeks isn’t very long you gotta do what you can to keep those ratings coming our way.
Law & Order has had it’s time in the sun. The mothership had gotten much better over the past several years due to veteran writer’s from LOCI coming over to L&O. If L&O isn’t renewed, I could see TNT picking it up, possibly.
NBCU-USA Network, they want lighter shows so L&O would not fit the bill as is being shown how they punt kicking the backbone of LOCI out the door to make it a more breezy, lighter show. What a mistake, imo. I just had to get that off my chest.
I don’t watch Parks so I can’t judge it’s quality, but Poehler does not impress me as being very funny. The same applies to Heroes, never watched the show.
NBC is doing incredibly lousy in terms of ratings.
They need to re-vamp their entire line-up. Last night’s SVU was infinitely better than the season opener but apparently didn’t pull down strong numbers. SVU used to be one of NBC’s flagship dramas. There must be some panic over the abysmal numbers.
I think Law & Order could be rehabilitated.
I used to love Law & Order, but now it is so far to the left it is offensive and the prosecutor regularly engages in misconduct instead of being a good guy.
If they made it so that almost every criminal wasn’t a republican and weren’t aggressively questionable cases with questionable methods I think there ratings would go back up.
Friday is the pasture.
I expect L&O to move to replace Mercy or Trauma.
NBC won’t make a decision on Parks until the regular Thursday lineup has a chance to succeed, especially with critics saying it’s much better this season.
On the one hand, you say you’re a big fan of Law & Order.
On the other, it’s ratings are typical Friday numbers and you’re ready to cancel it.
You are one confused wannabe.
MAJC, you’re the confused one.
The fact I like the show makes me disappointed it is likely to go off NBC (and perhaps not appear elsewhere, who knows), but doesn’t change my prediction.
They are not typical Friday numbers. Where did I write that? They are bad Friday numbers.
While realising this site is about the numbers; indulge me:
C, the crazy leftness of L&O is one of the things I love about it! They can’t ditch McCoy (they’d effectively nuke the series), so instead the rest of the cast is forced to watch him slide into rightous (or should that be lefteous) indignation, as he desperately tries to grapple with the politics of being DA.
It’s like watching the circus when the ring leader is the clown! Everyone else looks at each other uncertainly, but still follow his cues!
On an unrelated note, it kicks CSI: Miami’s ass, where the approach is consistantly a guily until innocent approach of “Do you have an alabi?” “Yes” “You better have! OR ELSE!”.
[/offtopic]
I can’t believe you haters! Amy Poehler is the most important American voice since John F. Kennedy!
You don’t like her show because you are phallocentric a-holes. It’s so funny and it doesn’t even seem funny! That’s genius.
Get over it, people. Stop being haters and know that Amy Poehler rules. Everyone sucks but her. Woody Allen, Mel Brooks and even Chaplin can shave my bush compared to Ms. Poehler.
Her contributions to comedy are more important than Dr. Jonas Salk’s polio vaccine. That is so f’n true.
Well, in its second week, L & O’s audience grew by half a million viewers, while every other Friday night show LOST viewers week-to-week. And, unlike its competition in its timeslot, the number of L & O viewers grew in the half-hour.
The other factor this column fails to take into account is that new episodes of L & O make a ton of money for NBC-Universal in cable reruns and foreign.
At this point, Trauma (dismal premiere) and Mercy (numbers fell this week) are better candidates for cancellation.
Steve Wenders, your comment has the benefit of occurring after the Trauma premiere and after the 2nd airing of Mercy.
This post was written with the numbers available through September 27. Next week’s R/C post for NBC will take in consideration numbers through October 4.
Bill,
This is the problem with these minute-by-minute predictions — they feed in to a corporate quarter-oriented mentality that doesn’t give shows a chance to grow. Forget about Law & Order, many worthwhile shows that are slow out of the gate (i.e. Seinfeld is the classic example of a slow-growing show) get tossed aside after a week or two and relegated to a lesser time-slot, promotion budgets are cut or eliminated, and pretty soon what was a shoot-from-the-hip guess becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Instead of being guided by a “I was the first to call it” Nikki-Finke-Toldja! approach, maybe this column should embargo its predictions until the sixth week of a show’s roll-out.
Between Trauma and Mercy its possible both will get additional eps, to hold them over until February. Neither are good enough for a full year yet I dont think NBC would axe both. By March the sched should look like this
Monday
8:00 Chuck
9:00 Persons Unknown
10:00 Jay Leno Show
Wednesday
8:00 Parenthood
9:00 L&O: SVU
10:00 Jay Leno Show
Both Trauma and Mercy are tentatively scheduled to be replaced by March. Should either become successful, more eps will be ordered but I think its likely both freshman dramas will get 17-19 eps for their first years, since neither is a breakout. I dont think either will be “pulled” however.
Hi Bill,
Thank you for the nice website.
Just as an FYI, between 8-11% of males are color blind in some fashion. A very common type of color blindness is deuteranopia which is where discnerning red/greens becomes difficult.
I only bring this up because the colors you used for your rankings here — shades of darker red and green, well, they look more or less the same to us, and thus it makes your information harder to discern. I thank you for your time in putting this together, and only ask that next time you may consider using stronger or bolder contrasting colors to help present your information.
Thank you!
Jack, you’re not the first person to mention this and while the red/yellow/green coding has significant meaning to people changing it is not entirely out of the question. If anyone wants to refer me to a site that could educate me in something like “these are good colors to use for the color blind” I’d definitely check it out.
Wow, thanks for the reply Bill!
I did not realize that there was probably an broadcast or industry standard for these colors — I wouldn’t seek to impose on disrupting anything that many folks use; maybe a small addition of a symbol/accent character? Not sure, I’ll try to come up with something clever.
I hesitated to provide a link in my first response as I did not want to come across like some kind of spammer, but if you ever want to take a nap and/or read up on colour and web design, try this:
http://joeclark.org/book/sashay/serialization/Chapter09.html
It has links to even more resources.
jack, I will definitely check it out. It’s not television standard at all, but the associations of red = danger, yellow = caution, green = good are pretty universal.
And, to be very fair, it is obvious in the lines at the top that they are separate colors and easily discernible. It was when the list of shows with their index number was presented that it became a game of “Er.. so the top is the bad.. no.. the bottom is the bad.. no.. hmm.” Smaller amount of color to see (just the type) makes it more difficult to discern. Also, since these would seem to be common sorts of lists, once it was figured out, it is not much to expect that the other lists would be ordered the same and thus no biggie.
Oh! I see, yes, clever.
Maybe just a matter of making them brighter, say, bright forest green? Like I said I don’t like just complaining without a solution, I’ll get back to you soon.
NBC looks to be in big trouble after this season.
^after this season?
Well they are in trouble now, but im saying with their shows. What dramas will survive from this year?
Heroes – lowering ratings proves that this once popular drama should be put out of its misery.
SVU – One of the few dramas that is safe.
Law & Order – Many think this will be the final year, however if it holds up it could very well get a 21st.
Southland – Hasnt premiered but hopefully will hold up after Law & Order.
Friday Night Lights – Already renewed by DirecTV
Chuck – This series could go either way, but things dont look good.
Trauma – Doing OK, NBC could keep it around for a while
Mercy – Same as Trauma
Heroes is better so far they a good chunk of last season this season, but understand why last season scared people off. I’m a diehard fan and certain episodes were really hard. But I sucked it up and think this season is better than it has been a in a long time. But the ratings are bad, I just really hope to see a good ending.
What is Dan smoking? Trauma and Mercy doing ok?
Jack – I’ll tell you later
. I meant OK by NBC standards, in a world where Trauma builds on a dying Heroes and Mercy is consistent along with NBC’s highest rated drama SVU. Both will likely stick around until all episodes run out.
As Dan suggested, NBC is in a weird position: Because they’ve moved the start of their spring season until after the Olympics in March (most networks usually bring their new Spring shows online in late January for Feb. sweeps), they need extra (more than 13) episodes to cover through mid-February. Those two February weeks are sweeps as well, so NBC can’t just air repeats there.
So while Mercy’s numbers are weak (we’ll see the new average this afternoon), it could indeed get more episodes, because something has to air until the Olympics. I don’t agree with Dan on Trauma though – it is simply too expensive to warrant more episodes at those ratings.
Tom – I believe that 1 of the series will get additional eps (17-18), and 1 will get cancelled. However both will run until December. I dont think NBC is in a position to pull either series (They didnt even pull Crusoe, Lipstick Jungle, or My Own Worst Enemy)
Isn’t the Renew/Cancel index set up so there is a proportion in the red/orange/green for each network.
Some shows will be below the line, some at the line, and some above the line.