Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season:
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Beautiful Life: TBL | 0.49 |
| Melrose Place | 0.78 |
| Gossip Girl | 0.98 |
| 90210 | 0.98 |
| Smallville (F) | 0.98 |
| One Tree Hill | 1.07 |
| Supernatural (S) | 1.17 |
| Vampire Diaries | 1.66 |
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The Beautiful Life got canceled before I could get out the Renew / Cancel Index, so no chance for an easy prediction there. However, Melrose Place’s chances of making it to 2010-11 seem no more beautiful. Heather Locklear probably shouldn’t get too settled in.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday’s have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:
- (p) – Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I’m glad Beautiful Life was cancelled. Next is Melrose Place.
Good lord. I’m still amazed after all these years that people watch One Tree Hill.
As Dawn goes, so does Melrose. If she is still around in 2010, MP could easily be around as well.
Also, is this index based solely on 18-49? I thought you were going to give a 18-34 (or W18-34) index for CW this year?
Will we have a Renew/Cancel index for The CW network itself? I’ll put the network’s chances of coming back next year or folding at: Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
I asked this in another post, but no one weighed in; so I’ll ask again:
Has anybody else wondered if airing Melrose on both Tues & Wed will basically cut their Tuesday night viewers in half? Instead of getting more exposure, does anybody else think the same audience will watch either night since they have an option to watch the same ep Tuesday OR Wednesday?
kinsey i agree Melrose repeats will backfire and both nights will be down the CW loves melrose place but it keeps dropping and they’re going to run out of excuses to keep it (its probably not cheap for them either)
@nkinsey,
It might hurt viewership a bit, but not cut it in half. Cable nets do this all the time and don’t see a lot of damage to the first airing. Of course, since the ratings have been on a downward trajectory since the beginning, it will be hard to tell how much of the loss is due to that slide and how much is due to it being on twice.
@Tom, you’re asking all the right questions today.
I considered using adults 18-34 averages for the CW, but since the CW specifically targets women 18-34, and we don’t see those averages, it still wouldn’t really be ideal. In the end, I decided to keep everything adults 18-49 for consistency, even though it’s not ideal for CW shows.
nkinsey, the extra airing of Melrose could cut into the primary airing’s ratings. We don’t have the information available to be able to figure that out.
@Bill, You left a bold tag open in the side menu.
Wow, the gap between number 1 and 2 is BIG. Good to see Dawnies “rich slut”-shows are below 1, and may they fall even more
melbye i think Gossip Girl is actually the CW’s #1 show in women 18-34
personally i think
90210 ,Gossip Girl and Vampire Diaries 100% will get renewed
Supernatural, One tree Hill and Smallville are aging alot but the CW will try to keep them if it can
Melrose Place will be cancelled and i think Life UnXpected will probably flop too
I think Life UneXpected will do well but then again it depends on what slot it is given.
I agree that Melrose Place depends on if Dawn Ostroff survives as head of the CW.
Will be interesting to see if the CW develops more genre shows this year, now that its Top 2 and three of its Top 4 shows are fantasy/horror-themed. Although, judging by the recent reality show announcements, that doesn’t seem to be the case.
CW is shooting themselves in the foot by only targeting a fickle demo. It worked for The WB a decade ago, but only for a few years, and that was before Internet streaming and piracy and all that good stuff the young’ns seem to be so good at.
Well Melrose should still be able to finish its initial batch of episodes and I think it likely will get a full or maybe reduced season but it needs some help to get more than one season.
I’m beginning to think that One Tree Hill is the CW’s NCIS – it just always seems to be consistent and do well enough to stick around season after season – didn’t they lose most of their cast? And yet it still does well enough by CW standards.
Im happy for Supernatural and Vampire Diaries but they had like 3 episodes already and Smallville has only had 1 and it didnt do as good =(
CW should try and sell off its shows to other networks/cable at the end of this season and shut down. They’re in an irreversable spiral of death.
CW already asked for 6 additional Melrose scripts
Does this make more financial sense to target women 18-34?
Men still make an average of about 10% more than women of equal skills.
I’d be curious to see what the ad revenues are for the shows.
Smallville, Supernatural more male driven vs gossip girl, 90210, female driven.
@ nkinsey,
I think that while repeats can do alright, I am not guessing that that will prove to be the case with Melrose Place. Airing the same episode two days in a row makes little sense to me and the Wednesday at 9:00 airing will compete with Glee for the same audience that Glee is already doing very well with. I am expecting abysmally bad numbers for MP in that slot.
Smallville should get renewed for S10. That’s all I care about on the pathetic CW. They don’t promote their best show, put it in the death slot and still it picks good ratings for them.
If TBL is gone, CW should put Smallville in it’s slot. It’s really unfair to Smallville to put it on a time where most people cannot see it. It’s among the top shows on iTunes. Everyone knows SV has a substantial fan following. It’s sad to see Smallville getting this treatment due to other garbage on CW.
My rents do not let me watch tv during week so its really sad.
I want One Tree Hill, 90210 and Vampire Diaries to stay.
I also know I am probably going to be watching LifeUneXpected – I love Shiri Appleby and also it will probably get a lot of adult viewers.
Melrose place – down the tube, I love ashlee but the whole storyline is horrible!
Through yesterday (assuming the comment on the overnight post is accurate), W 18-34 averages (in points) based mostly on final reports:
Leaders: Gossip Girl 3.0, Vampire Diaries 2.73
Followers: Top Model 2.43, One Tree Hill 2.37, 90210 2.33
Losers: Melrose Place 1.92, Supernatural 1.63
I didn’t see #’s for Smallville, but I know last season its numbers were around Supernatural’s, and since Smallville supposedly had record lows for its premiere, it’s probably below Supernatural…
Using CW’s final W18-34 ratings for the first week of the season (which means that ratings from previous weeks are discounted in the network average and show average), here’s how the RCI shapes up with those numbers:
The Beautiful Life 0.52
Smallville 0.52
Supernatural 0.87
Melrose Place 0.87
90210 1.21
One Tree Hill 1.33
America’s Next Top Model 1.33
Gossip Girl 1.39
Vampire Diaries 1.5
This is why the CW should have picked up the Gossip Girl spinoff with Brittany Snow!
1. Gossip Girl is one of their top shows on the network and a spinoff would be a sure win.
2. Brittany Snow…who doesn’t love her?!
3. The backdoor pilot was actually REALLY GOOD and I wanted to find out what was gonna happen next.
I have to assume that Supernatural and Smallville looked somewhat similar last year if you looked at their W18-34 numbers, though Smallville is a bit worse this year. Either CW’s claims that they only care about W18-34 are lies, or they make exceptions for those two shows.
Gossip Girl is still…sort of…my favorite show. Well, it’s the one I think about most, even though I skip a bunch of scenes when watching it because Dan, Lily, Rufus, Vanessa, and usually Nate bug (plus the latter two’s current significant others).
But Brittany Snow was annoying, and the backdoor pilot was one of the worst eps of the show. I think on TWOP it was voted the worst of the season…Plus, again, I don’t care about Lily, and a lot of other fans don’t. Some do, of course. Also, it probably would not be a sure win. I know I don’t care about the 80’s.
@Julia: Now those numbers are interesting. I’m sure CW makes exceptions for shows with those kinds of DVD sales.
Those sorts of comparisons make me doubly tempted to make my Finals database (for personal use), especially with “Travis” reporting them daily.
Is it legal for a 14 year old boy to be the head of the CW? I could easily manage The CW and pull it wayy out of the grave.
Those sorts of comparisons make me doubly tempted to make my Finals database (for personal use), especially with “Travis” reporting them daily.
If you really want to, let me know I’ll send you an email.
Bill despite horribly low ratings I think there is a good chance, Melrose will return for a second year. In fact just because its the anticipated remake spinoff of a spinoff, it may stick around along with Vampire Diaries. All veteran series are safe, and Ill bet CW will even bring back Smallville.
Melrose is still here just because its a name show, if not it would have been axed like TBL.
Dan, if what you say is true, CW will have room for exactly one new series next year. That’s simply impossible. My guess is at least the lowest three for the year will be cut, which means TBL, Melrose, and most likely Life UnXpected or whatever it’s called. Smallville is a good possibility as well, and Supernatural may be up to the producers.
Julia – I know, the only slot available would be Wednesday at 9, but hear me out. Supernatural will be renewed despite the creators wanting to end it just because it does well in the ratings. I think Smallville could end, but I dont think any of CW’s reality replacements or Life UnXpected will be renewed.
The reason wy I think melrose will come back is just because of the fact that some veteran series may depart, and CW may want to keep some series around. One Tree Hill may end after 10-11, Smallville could end in May 2010.
Despite ratings, CW will try everything to save Melrose, since theyve put so much in bringing back the franchise.
Yeah I agree CW won’t easily give up on Melrose Place, it might get a full season even it is only on life support.
I want an announced final season for Smallville, I mean it should be announced way before the season starts and not go through a season like this in season 9 where the fate is still unknown. Regardless if the quality of the writing went down over the years, Smallville deserves a well-planned final season ala ER of NBC. So hopefully they renew it for a 10th and Final season. The CW could make the final season an event for them it would pull more viewers all season long.
Supernatural and OTH are safe mainly because aside from Vampire Diaries, there is no breakout hit on the CW schedule anyway. They could not afford to lose two stable shows.
And well I will not join those who wish CW to fail, I want them to reach the success of the old WB but they seriously need a new direction on their management.
Wow at Vampire Diaries.
And I love how Smallville is doing amazing on Friday nights.
90210 and Melrose place are preempted on WGN-9 in Chicago for baseball tonight, BTW. Both will air Sunday.
Although I love Supernatural, I’m rooting for this season to be its last simply because its creator only planned for five seasons and I’d like to see it go out on top in terms of creativity and quality. Gossip Girl obviously peaked in its first season and has only gone downhill since then. Vampire Diaries is obviously a hit, but is so poorly made I find it unwatchable.
the CW should go back to being the WB again…it seemed like the shows got more views back in the day, like Smallville and Supernatural were around the 4 million marks
oh yeah…Katie Cassidy shoulda stuck with Supernatural…obviously haha
Stupid Dawn never shoulda cancelled Veronica Mars, I still watch that show on DVD and Think how Dumb is dawn, Veronica Mars has some of the Best writing On TV…I still miss it so much.
OH NO!!!
Melrose Place is one of my favorite tv shows, Ashlee Simpson is amazing. I’m really sad for it
forg – I doubt The CW will ever announce an end for Smallville (They didnt bother to announce the end of veterans 7th Heaven, Gilmore Girls, Veronica Mars, and Girlfriends until after the finales were filmed, and luckily Chris Rock ended EHC on his own terms, despite the series being in obvious danger. They announced Reba’s end, but CW didnt want it anyway. While its still likely for Smallville to get a 10th season, dont expect the CW to announce an end. The CW usually renews a small group of series early (around February or March) if Smallville isnt on it, than the series has a 50/50 chance of returning. Hopefully CW makes a decision before the upfronts, to give the series closure.
Christina – Separately, WB and UPN got very high ratings, WB with drama and UPN with comedies. Together as The CW ratings could not be worse.
Melrose Place is like Gossip Girl in 2007, and 90210 in 2008. CW will do anything to save Melrose and it will get a full year. CW is lucky that Vampire Diaries is doing well on its own.
Dan: Yup I know, I was really disappointed how the CW handled ’series finales’ of their shows in the past so that’s why I’m worried for Smallville. I just hope CW will handle Smallville better.
I hope this is the final year for Supernatural. I really don’t want the quality to degrade like Smallville’s has. I don’t want it to limp on for years.
I would watch Melrose Place- IF… I knew when it was on or what local channel was the CW. They do a HORRIBLE job of marketing.
I’ve enjoyed watching the new Melrose. I tried getting my Mother into the new series since she was a fan of it back in the day, but she being 57 years old, she just couldn’t relate to the younger actors and storylines and gave up on it.
I pretty confidant The CW will stick with it and eventually give it a full season. They have spent too much time and money in promoting it and getting it back on the air to quit on it as someone above mentioned.
Cufan: just do a google search to find out what channel your local CW affiliate is. It shouldn’t be too hard to find since it’s an over the air channel like FOX, CBS, ABC and NBC.
i cant understand!!
if fox renewed last may dollhouse with 2,7 million viewers its not weird cw could renew a show with 1.5!!
apperantly with cw’s standards 1.5 is good!!!
@ Tom, I’ve been doing that this season as well.
It;s helpful to track the numbers yourself. Plus, I like making tables and graphs and things… lol
the reason smallville is so low is because the cw moved it to the worst night possible, last season there ratings were between 3.8mil – 4.2, and since the switch to fridays it droped to 2.5
Why doesn’t the CW do more shows like TVD or Supernatural? They bring in higher ratings than GG and 90210. That would be the smart thing to do business wise.
And that sucks, hopefully things will turn around, I actually like MP.
I love the new Melrose Place. A lot of you people must have TV ADD or something. If a show isn’t amazing in the first 10 minutes you guys stop watching it and run to this website to discuss its demise. That’s pretty sad. For a show that “sucks,” you guys sure talk about it an awful lot. That’s pretty sad for you guys.
Personally, I don’t think any classic TV show would have stood a chance on TV these days. Between fickle audiences and disloyal networks, shows don’t have time to find themselves. Websites like these have killed sitcoms, soap operas, and dramas. How many more crime / sci-fi shows can we have on the air? Enough is enough.
While I don’t think websites like these have been responsible for any show’s demise, I also love the new Melrose Place. It’s far better than I was expecting and each episode keeps me entertained and interested in the story. There are lots of great possibilities of where the stories for each character could go if given the chance.
It is a shame that many shows aren’t given the proper chance to succeed nowadays, but ratings talk. I like what Fox is doing with Dollhouse in giving it a bit more time to find an audience. I only wish The CW would do the same. Shows like Privileged, for example, left the air far too quickly.
forg – If Smallville ends this year, it wont be because of ratings. Maybe it will end because of the producers, maybe production cost but not ratings. CW moved the series to fridays to generate interest to the night (and they knew numbers would go down). I’m not sure about cast contracts but I think Smallville can stick around for another year.
Don J – Melrose will without a doubt get a full season, you can tell by encoring the show on Wednesdays that they want to save it, and they spent so much bringing back the 90210 franchise. No matter how bad ratings are it will be renewed. Melrose and Vampire are the only two new series I could see returning in 2010.
Television needs more family shows- like most of the ones on Sunday Night. Touched by an Angel was a great show and was very popular but they moved to Saturdays.
CW is at the end of the rope- Vampires are highly popular. I saw 90210 last night- it was okay and Dawn could move it away to Wednesday from CBS’ NCIS powerhouses!
I think websites like these encourage people to tune out sooner than they would because of all the negativity here that surrounds low rated shows. If people look at a menu in a restaurant and 50 – 100 strangers told them that the shellfish was bad, that’s going to hinder a lot of those people’s decision to even give it a try. Those people aren’t likely to question if the ones who said it was bad tried the shellfish themselves or if they’re even a fan of shellfish. Based on the bad reviews alone, most people would avoid ordering that even if they were once interested in it. The same is true with this website and shows like Melrose Place and networks like The CW as a whole. I bet you half the people who’ve commented in this thread so far haven’t even watched the show. I bet a third of the people haven’t watched more than two episodes. No one has patience anymore. That will be the demise of network television. Say goodbye to it just like we’re saying goodbye to CDs, magazines, house phones, etc.
I watch everything on the CW except Supernatural. Although Smallville was so bad last week, I’ll probably dump that, too. If I could pick just two shows on the network to watch, they’d be Gossip Girl and One Tree Hill, easily.
The only reason that I think Melrose will get renewed is just so CW will have some original dramas when the veterans end
Gossip Girl
90210
Melrose Place
The Vampire Diaries
All 4 originals should return in fall 2010. And I believe since Smallville and possibly One Tree Hill and Supernatural could be close to ending. Its good to have some dramas.
Its likely
Smallville could end Spring 2010 or 2011
One Tree Hill could end Spring 2011 or 2012
Supernatural could end somewhere between 2012-2014.
When all 3 WB series are gone, CW will need something to hold up the network. Since America’s Next Top Model is reality, it could go on forever.
so they killed reaper which had a renew/cancel index of over 1 … for stuff like tbl and melrose …. god damn.
Wow and the talk of MP getting canceled is based of 3 episodes? lol
If you really dont think that return of heather will push the ratings back over the 2 million mark (enough to keep it safe) you are in the wrong job
I am a male viewer of the CW and find their shows a little out of my league. The only shows I watch on the CW are 90210 and America’s Next Top Model, and I watch those faithfully every week. I was all about Melrose Place and even watched the premiere but found the show pretty boring. The CW needs to step up their game!..and fast
Didn’t they just add another origianl Melrose Star to this new version?
Reaper did well in the demos against Idol. And CW still axed it.
The pilot of MP was not the best but the shows is fast finding its feet and is now good trashy fun like the original was
The show has orderd 6 more episodes and signed Heather Locklear, i think the canceleation threat maybe a tad premature in this case
Its ratings of course need to pick up and im sure they will now (going off this week) they have stopped falling.
Please remember what happend with Gossip Girl in its firsat season
PS The title of this thread is misleading
It sound like the show has been canceled already
Add a damn question mark on the end
Honestly, The only show worth watching on the CW that isn’t trash, or sluts on parade *cough 90210, Melrose cough* Is Supernatural.
VD is alright for a tween Vamp show, the acting is strong unlike Melrose. *Shudders* Katie is the only one on that show that can act, and that’s not saying much. Heather won’t save Melrose because no one is watching.
However; Dawn not having a brain will probably renew Melrose despite the crappy ratings.
Yeah, no one is more surprised than me that MP is actually a very decent show. It’s entertaining and there are a couple of storylines that have definite potential. I doubt that CW is going to cancel the show before Heather Locklear arrives. And it’s not doing much worse than GG or 90210 did their first seasons and they (inexplicably) lived to see another season.
SV isn’t going anywhere. The main reason reason (in my opinion) that they moved the show to Friday was to prevent the loss of revenue. In May, they decided not to compete with original programming on Sundays. The same fate would’ve happened with Friday, which is why they put SV there. It may be aging, but in a way, it’s helping to save their night.
Welling is already optioned for S10, the network just has to order it (and they probably will).
Here’s the funny thing: They announce SV’s end, the numbers would go up and they’d probably back pedal and decide to renew the show for an 11th season, like they did with that bogus, lame 7th Heaven show. For that reason, they probably won’t announce SV’s end…unless they didn’t learn anything with 7th Heaven.
the DVR Numvbers for MP have come out and its great news for the show
“Melrose Place, which has been struggling in the ratings, gained 54 percent in women 18-34 (2.12 vs. 3.26) and 43 percent in total viewers (2 million vs. 2.8 million)”
MELROSE PLACE is such a great show – and it gets better with every episode. I REALLY don’t get why more people aren’t tuning in, it’s great!
Craig,
I don’t doubt you, but where did you see those DVR numbers? They could only be for the first airing of Melrose (when no other networks had begun their new shows).Edit: I know where they came from now.
WOW…people on here REALLY know their stuff. I LOVE Melrose tons – I thought the show (and I think many thought as well) was a sure-fire hit). Can someone explain to me why it isn’t faring better? It’s great, much better than 90210 in terms of how it has been adapted….
Thoughts…?
MELROSE PLACE I should mention, also has obsessed loyal fans, trust me, I know many (and am one)
I dont think Melrose will be one and done. I believe it will get a second year, just because CW has invested a lot in reviving the franchise.
Bill, where did the numbers come from?
Julia:
http://www.thewrap.com/ind-column/cw-gets-big-boost-dvrs-8037
Thanks. Boy, does that read like a CW press release.
Are you guys going to be getting the Live+7 reports again this year?
Holly, we expect to. Why others got Live+7 numbers and we didn’t is a bit puzzling.
Maybe because it’s from before the regular season? :shrug:
lol @ Dan…Supernatural and Smallville WILL absolutely more than likely end this year…if Eric Kripke wants to end SPN, its gonna end…plus i want it to go out with a bang not span on 4 a thousand years like Smallville
Since this is Supernatural’s final season anyway, should it even be on this index?
It’s not officially confirmed that is the final season of Supernatural.
I hope Kripke does some serious thinking and realizes that ending Supernatural this year is going to be the best thing for the show in the long run. The same goes for the actors, since if their gone there is no way the CW can renew it.
I have a feeling that in a couple of year the cw will get cancelled cause it has such low ratings, why did wb switch it was so much better at promoting shows and it was just a more welcoming and fun network. I really REALLY love smallville and putting it in the death slot of friday is totally unfair…it’s old as it is and it doesn’t need to be placed on friday so that ratings can go down so that cw can use that as an excuse to cancel it. And I love Vamp. Diaries, I’m really glad I decided to give it a chance because at first I thought it was just going to be a stupid worthless repeat of twilight but I was really wrong. It has an edge to it that I never thought it would have. The only shows though that I watch religiously are Smallville, VD, and OTH-which needs to make the storylines more interesting or else I’m not going to be looking forward to future episodes because it’s getting kind of bland……MORE PEOPLE NEED TO TUNE INTO FRIDAYS AT 8 FOR SMALLVILLE!!!!!!!!