We read a lot of comments about how Dollhouse is profitable, even with low ratings, and with reports of a low budget of anywhere from $650K per episode to $1.3 million per episode, I don’t doubt it is profitable.
I tend to believe the costs are more towards the middle-to-high end of those estimates, but either way I do believe those claims that the show is profitable, even with tiny ratings.
It’s also true that if FOX, ran, say House reruns instead of Dollhouse that there wouldn’t be any ancillary DVD or International licensing revenue for the Fox/News Corp mothership (Dollhouse is produced by one of Fox’s studios).
In a world where Syfy’s Warehouse 13 reportedly has a budget of $2 million per episode, I have no doubts at all that Dollhouse can turn a profit, even with tiny ratings. But what I wondered is what is the relative opportunity cost versus even airing reruns that could perform better in the ratings?
What I did here was a very simple you-coulda-done-it-on-a-napkin model that looks at profits on a per episode basis if Dollhouse costs $1 million per episode and also if it only costs $650,000 per episode.
Then it looks both at a 1.0 adults 18-49 rating, and and a .8 rating. I also took a look at the revenue of a House rerun at adults 18-49 ratings of 1.3 and 1.2.
Below is a table followed by my conclusion and detail on the assumptions used:
| Dollhouse if $1 million/episode cost | 1.0 Rating | 0.8 Rating |
| Ad Revenue | $1,066,656 | $853,312 |
| International | $400,000 | $400,000 |
| DVD | $308,000 | $308,000 |
| itunes/Hulu | $250,000 | $250,000 |
| Cost/episode | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 |
| Profit per episode | $1,024,656 | $811,312 |
| Dollhouse if $650,000/episode cost | 1.0 Rating | 0.8 Rating |
| Ad Revenue | $1,066,656 | $853,312 |
| International | $400,000 | $400,000 |
| DVD | $308,000 | $308,000 |
| itunes/Hulu | $250,000 | $250,000 |
| Cost/episode | $650,000 | $650,000 |
| Profit per episode | $1,374,656 | $1,161,312 |
| House Rerun | 1.3 rating | 1.2 Rating |
| Ad Revenue | $1,386,656 | $1,280,000 |
| Profit per episode | $1,386,656 | $1,280,000 |
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Conclusion
The simple conclusion based on the assumptions of this model is House reruns are more profitable, even when baking in the ancillary revenue streams that exist for Dollhouse that do not exist for a House rerun. House reruns are more profitable assuming at least a 1.2 rating, even if Dollhouse has ancillary revenue and even if it only costs $650,000 per episode.
If Dollhouse costs a million per episode, rather than $650,000, the House rerun is a lot more profitable.
And whether the House rerun is merely a little more profitable rather than a lot more profitable, I’d still go with the House rerun, because why lower my networks primetime ratings average for something that makes less money — even if it’s only a little less?
If this model is correct within a range of Dollhouse being slightly less profitable than House to slightly more profitable than House, I still don’t think its worth lowering the averages over. Obviously if Dollhouse is more than marginally more profitable, even with tiny ratings, my feelings would be different.
ASSUMPTIONS
Advertising
For advertising I conservatively estimated (this isn’t completely pulled out of thin air) that a 1.5 adults 18-49 rating would make $50,000 per commercial spot, and that if a 1.5 rating made $50K than a 1.0 rating would make $33,333 (1.0/1.5*50,000) and that a .8 would make $26,666 (.8/1.5*$50K)
I believe the actual rates are probably a bit higher, but since I used the same method for House and Dollhouse, it’s still an apple-to-apples comparisons.
In both cases I assumed 16 minutes of national advertising per hour, for 32 total spots.
International Licensing
The best estimate I have is that the top shows in the US reportedly rake in $1 million per episode for their combined international licensing. Dollhouse isn’t anywhere near a top US show, so I used $400,000 per episode. Obviously if it’s a million dollars per episode, it changes things significantly. I think its a reasonable estimate based on the best available information I had. If you have better intel on Dollhouse international licensing, please feel free to post it here. If you prefer to stay anonymous, send it along.
DVD revenue
All we ever saw was that relative to other shows, Dollhouse season one didn’t sell all that well. In its first week of release it sold over 67,000 units and earned more than an estimated $1.8 million. Then it fell off the list we regularly monitor.
I bumped total revenue up to $5 million, but Fox’s studio doesn’t get 100% of the gross revenue. My guess is at best the studio sees about 66% of the revenue, but to be conservative in my assessment I bumped that up to 80% and gave the studio $4 million. Over 13 episodes that would be roughly $308,000 per episode. By this model, figure for every million extra you give the studio, it works out to about $77,000 per episode.
iTunes/Hulu
The $250,000 revenue per episode is my best estimate based on what I’ve been told. If you have better estimates, please feel free to share.
No incremental cost for House
This comparison assumes more or less a standard licensing for House, where FOX can air each episode up to 3 times (original plus 2 repeats) without incurring additional fees. For the purpose of this comparison I assumed there would be $0 incremental cost for airing a House repeat.
Not much/any revenue benefit for DVR viewers
A new episode of Dollhouse will certainly be more viewed on DVR than a repeat of House. By quite a bit. Unfortunately, despite FOX PR over last year’s DVR numbers, all the information we’ve ever seen leads us to believe there isn’t really any/much advertising revenue benefit for these viewers. Last year, when Dollhouse was part of the “remote free” limited commercial experiment, there was at least a little benefit because fewer people were fast-forwarding through the shorter commercial breaks. But that’s gone this year.
Product placement deals would benefit potentially from DVR viewing, but quick, off the top of your head, what’s the product placement in Dollhouse?
(I couldn’t think of any).
At any rate, I didn’t add any extra benefit for the DVR viewers in. But figure this. If Dollhouse got another .5 in 18-49 rating, and on average the commercials were viewed by 20% of the DVR viewers, it would theoretically add about another $110,000 per episode in revenue (if adds were sold that way, or they watched within 3 days).
The extra $110,000 per episode isn’t enough to change my overall view here, but I admit that it’s “not nothing” either.
I didn’t include it because that is improvement over the Live+SD viewing, which includes a chunk of the DVR viewing and for our purposes here, treated them as if they were live viewers (when they might have and in many cases did merely time shift by 20 minutes and skipped every commercial).
Since I didn’t subtract anything to account for the DVR viewers who watched the same night, I didn’t add any benefit back in for the ones who watched later on DVR.
I vaguely remember when a house repeat on a Friday night would pull in a 3.0 rating…or was I just imagining that?
Bet FOX made a pretty penny off of em apples
How many “free” re-runs does a network get? Given Friday is a graveyard it seems, they maybe putting on episodes already repeated, should they not have some cost?
read the notes under “No Incremental Cost for House” but these days it seems networks almost never (which isn’t the same as never) use up their allotment, not even with normal repeating/summer.
So Dollhouse is still profitable?
Yay!
“why lower my networks primetime ratings average for something that makes less money — even if it’s only a little less?”
Based on my readings of Reilly’s comments over the Summer it sounded like two of his goals were to make sure that Fox retained original scripted programming on Fridays and also bring year-to-year stability to Friday nights. Based on my research (and I could be missing something) but prior to Dollhouse’s renewal then the last Friday program that Fox had renewed was Millenium in 1998. Obviously that’s not very stable (R.I.P. Dark Angel, Firefly, T:SCC, etc).
So if those goals really are/were important to Reilly then I can see why he would accept less money in order to reach them. We can argue that’s he’s making a mistake in his thinking, but it’s his mistake(s) to make. And imo his thinking is not as misguided as some (see Dawn Ostroff).
AO, I think those were (at least in Reilly’s mind) reasonable reasons for saying “ah, we’ll give it a try and see what happens” as far as renewing it.
But now that it’s gotten a 1.0 and a .8, I doubt that’s what Reilly had in mind. Programming stability for 33%-50% lower ratings is not a good trade.
But indeed, if the costs are really only $650K per episode, the leash is definitely longer. But if it’s a $1 million an episode it’s not just a little less profit, it’s a lot less. At least by my simple math
Yeah, that could well be past tense now (though I do very much like to dream of the better future that Nick C has portrayed in his recent posts
).
But I have no idea what he’ll do. I’m hoping that he’s behind those goals enough to be willing to tolerate the weaker revenues that he gets with DH vs the better revenues that he would have with repeats of House. But we won’t know where his cut-off point for DH is until/unless it’s reached and the show sees the unforgiving axe of cancelation.
I will concede that DH may not have (ok, probably wasn’t) the best show with which to try this strategy, but it was willing to cut it’s budget and how many other shows would have volunteered to be moved to Fridays to have served as test subjects in place of DH?
And I am acutely aware that the end could well be nigh, but hope springs eternal and so shall I believe until the final bell has tolled.
As ackward as this seems, everytime I watch an episode of Dollhouse (via DVD, live or Hulu) I email askfox@fox.com to let them know that I am watching an episode, and to thank them for making Dollhouse.
Got nothing better to do, and Dollhouse is the one show I watch regularly. Don’t want it to end.
I’m betting the only thing that’s keeping Reilly from axing Dollhouse is the thought of them destroying that beautiful goddam set. I love the show, but thinking about them having to destroy the set is what makes me hope that they keep the show on. It’s just too pretty to have it torn down. But hey, they did it to Angel’s season 5 set so they’ll do it Dollhouse too.
During the first season, did they ever trend upward at all in the middle of the season before they bottomed out at a 1.0? or was it all downhill since the pilot? if this trend continues, i’m betting Dollhouse will probably end up registering a 0.0 for the finale
Robert, i’m betting you didn’t include advertising expense because there is no bloody advertisements for the show? I swear, the only advertisements for Dollhouse prior to the premiere were banners on this very website. Nowhere else. How sad is that. and i visit a lot of tv related websites. oh well, at least we got a second season. can’t complain too much, can we?
@ Jeff, Great idea!
After the initial broadcast (which counts for nothing as Nielsen has never counted me for anything) then I watch again via Fox.com (as I heard that it’s the most effective way to give Fox ratings via the ‘Net). Though I’m not sure whether or not that’s true?
@ grr_argh,
The Set is indeed great! Have you seen the lengthy L.A. Times article about it?
http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/la-ca-dollhouse1-2009feb01,0,1597147.story
First Season ratings:
Friday 13th Millions 18-49 Viewers/Share
9:00 Dollhouse 4.73 2.0/6
9:30 Dollhouse 4.70 2.0/6
Friday 20th
Dollhouse 4.22 1.7/5
Friday 27th
Dollhouse 4.13 1.6/5
March 6th
Dollhouse 3.55 1.5/5
March 13th
Dollhouse 4.30 1.6/5
March 20th
Dollhouse 4.13 1.5/5
March 27th
Dollhouse 3.87 1.3/4
April 3rd
Dollhouse 3.49 1.4/5
April 10th
Dollhouse 3.56 1.4/4
April 24th
Dollhouse 2.99 1.2/4
May 1st
Dollhouse 3.09 1.1/4
May 8th
Dollhouse 2.75 1.0/4
@AO. i’ve seen every episode of Dollhouse live. but without a nielsen’s box, i sometimes wonder if i’m better off just watching online so it actually counts. the world will never know. or maybe we will. anyone over at fox know? nick c?
@AO, thanks for the link and the first season ratings!
@ grr_argh,
Yeah, I only watched it live at the start of last year, but then switched over to a second viewing on Fox.com where I patiently watched the commercials. There’s only one sponsor per episode, so they haven’t been too bad. I think (but am not sure) that the best thing to do is to DVR it and then watch it within 24 hours and not skip any commercials, but I am not positive on that.
And you’re welcome for the link and the ratings.
After much debate I eventually had to compile all of the Spring ratings for both DH & T:SCC to prove to certain people that T:SCC in fact never beat Dollhouse in the ratings in the Spring. It’s nice to put them to a better use.
It may have a low budget but if anything $1.3 million would/should be on the low end for a one hour show.
If you remember, the producers of the Sarah Silverman show (which had 1.5 million viewers an episode) refused to take a 20% cut in the shows budget from $1.1 million down to $850,000. This is also just a 30 minute show. It was recently renewed because MTV is going to bear a portion of the production costs.
Also, single camera comedies usually cost from $1.5 to $2 million an episode.
The way the demo has been trending down for Dollhouse, so far, Zero ratings will be reached in episode 14. Good thing they only ordered 13.
Is a House repeat really going to get a 1.3 when on a Friday following a poorly rated show like Til Death?
There’s no question in my mind that Dollhouse is doing badly, but that doesn’t mean you can schedule anything in its place and expect that to do well. To get the higher figures you’re talking about, Fox needs to revamp Friday, not just one show.
Ironically, one alternative means might be to move the two comedies instead of Dollhouse, and show reruns of Firefly instead (much as I don’t see what the big deal is about the latter.) Fox’s idea for a sci-fi Friday made a lot of sense, the problem was that the original Dollhouse lead-in was written by people who really didn’t seem to be interested in keeping their audience. (I wonder if the same people wrote last Friday’s Dollhouse episode!)
AO says:
“I think (but am not sure) that the best thing to do is to DVR it and then watch it within 24 hours and not skip any commercials, but I am not positive on that.”
Why would not being sampled for DVR viewing be better than not being sampled for live viewing?
Robert, I think your assumptions about international licensing are incorrect. I remember reading that early in Heroes’ run, the BBC was paying £400k (just under $800k at that point) per episode for free to air rights after it had already aired on cable there. And the UK is just one country in Europe, and on top of Europe you’d have the best part of probably all the other continents. I imagine a show successful in multiple countries is able to negate its cost deficit quite quickly. Not that Dollhouse falls into this exact category, but if its production budget is so low, it could be paying off a lot of its costs similarly.
Actually,S, if ratings continue downward at this rate, there will be negative ratings by episode 13. Let’s hope Fox pulls it before then.
@Jack totally agree about international licensing being low. Sky1 paid through the nose for House, and from what i’ve read, Dollhouse seems to have sold well internationally. Sci-Fi in the UK have just picked up a couple more Fox shows, although i’m not sure if they’re produced in house or by a different studio.
Fox need to look at more than TV for this to make more money. Years after Buffy and other Whedon shows have finished, and they’re still selling loads of comics, figures, box sets etc
Do Dollhouse get paid/taken into account when other shows use the set? Bones recently did an episode on the set, so if other shows are using it, then that will save money across the board?
It looks profitable, but does FOX really want to keep it around where theres a possibility of another series doing better in that slot. Whether it be House/Bones repeats or something new.
Profitable or not, if it’s demo stays below 1.0 it’s done. That’s just common sense.
Well I *can* say that, at least in Canada, “Dollhouse” (and a few other Fox programs) were offered at a substantial discount for season 1 (and I would assume license fees didn’t increase for season 2). The reason is because DH was one of those shows which FOX launched with “limited commercials” (making the program longer in length). I believe “Fringe” was another one of those “limited commercial” programs. In Canada, the CRTC increased the commercial time per hour for our programming, so right from the get go Global would be losing ad revenue (since Canadian networks can air more commercials than American networks).
Although an “international” version was offered to Global, Global decided to go with the reduced fees & lesser commercial time.
I don’t know if other networks around the world took the US version, or the 44 minute “international” version of this program.
(btw, “Global” is the network that airs DH in Canada)
ananymous with season 2 the episodes have been shortened to the normal length
I may be one of those people that you referred to in a thread some time back about how DVD viewing might be “killing” some shows. I never watched one epsidoe of DOLLHOUSE during S1. Not that it would matter, I don’t have a Nielsen Box, so I don’t “count.” I did, however purchase S1 on DVD.
So far I haven’t watched an episode of S2 – again, it makes no difference since I “don’t count.” But I will buy S2 (if the show survives).
So perhaps I’m not contributing to the death of DOLLHOUSE by NOT watching it. Perhaps I’m helping it in the only way that I can that COUNTS – by buying the DVDs.
Thoughts? Opinions? If you’re not a “Nielsen” person, does it make a difference if you actually watch the show when nobody’s counting you anyway. At least buying the DVD, they COUNT that!
Thanks, guys!
I don’t think it even matters if it’s profitable at this point – Fox is not going to keep a show on the air with little more than 2 million viewers and 18-49 numbers that get beaten even by the CW and Syfy. No way. DH will be gone before November sweeps.
So, do episodes cost 650K for the network, or for the studio? I really can’t see the show costing just 650k to produce – no way. Even $1.3 million is a bit of a stretch. So somebody is eating big losses here.
This isn’t anything to do with numbers, but worth asking: Isn’t it generally considered better if a network is running new programming every night of th week? If you’re running reruns, that’s a sign you’re doing something wrong. Even if the reruns do good ratings.
CW (and Ostroff) got a lot of criticism for axing Sunday night programming, didn’t they?
Enough with the Dollhouse analysis… I just hope Dollhouse gets cancelled soon.
There used to be a stigma to scheduling repeats, Gina, but not so much anymore because all of the networks do it. I think that ABC will be the only scheduled repeat free network from October through January, but after that, it’ll be back to Saturday repeats again.
The upshot of that is that the networks tend to take shows off the air when they’re airing in-slot repeats to try other shows. So overall, I think that there’s more new programming on network TV than there was even a decade ago.
@Robert
I think you’re International Revenue is probably on the low side.
A show like this would get a pretty good reach internationally (and there’s far too many channels that need ‘prime/fresh/high profile’ shows out there.
I’ve attached a couple of links for figures that just the UK has paid for shows in the last few years (and don’t forget in the UK you’ll have two licence streams, a ‘first run’ satellite premium and then some time later the broadcast revenue).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1385172/Doh-Now-the-BBC-loses-The-Simpsons.html (Simpsons for 2nd run Terrestrial generates about $160k per episode in 2002).
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2003/dec/17/broadcasting.bbc1 This Piece says just the UK pays on average about £200k ($360k) per episode of a 1 hour import US show.
I think (and we’ll never know) that the international revenue stream is likely closer to the $1m-$1.5m range.
Syndication / repeats for Dollhouse? Sorry — I don’t know the full details about how the industry works, and perhaps the assumption is the DH pulls in effectively nothing from that possibility. I know TNT used to show eps of Angel…
I’m curious whether Whedon would be better or worse off at SyFy. Would DH’s numbers go down (moving from broadcast to a cable network) or remain stable, capitalizing on a much better target audience (and perhaps time shift)?
Sorry just found this one as well.
The BBC reportedly paid £500k ($750k) per episode for Heroes.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2007/jul/26/overnights.tvratings
FObert, one question about the ad revenue: your assumption was 1.5 rating = $50,000 per commercial spot.
My question is: if the show was on Thursday, the ad rate would be higher?
Sorry, I meant *Robert.
anon, “if the show was on Thursday, the ad rate would be higher?”
There may be some premium, but to our knowledge 18-49 rating and advertising revenue potential are pretty closely tied together.
Robert –
Good, thorough article, but there are a couple of additional things worth pointing out.
First, you assume that Dollhouse DVD sales form a direct relationship with the episodes aired (episodes x S1Sales/13 = profit), where it’s likely more of an inverse relationship. Dollhouse isn’t known for a look-in audience…most of the DVD buyers are likely existing fans, and many of them only to see the unaired ep. Particularly if the later episodes turn out to not be very good, the network would actually generate more interest and more incentive to buy DVDs with fewer airings.
Second, it’s possible Fox would air Glee repeats in that slot again rather than house. They’ve put all their might behind that one little show this summer, and they might be willing to take a hit on viewers if it gives them a chance to generate series-long interest from even a couple hundred thousand people.
***turn out to NOT be very good***
Hi Robert, if either you or Bill has the time, could you please do me a favor and make a similar chart for Castle? That is, see how much it would take Castle to be profitable given the costs (you don’t have to compare it w/what reruns of what some other show would do in its place). Given the heated discussions we’ve had over Castle here, I was just curious to see what its numbers are and how they would affect its potential renewal or cancellation status. I’d really appreciate it!
International rights were sold prior to the first season. Do you really think that they would continue to pay fees like that if the results weren’t superb? Does anyone know what sort of ratings Dollhouse had for the BBC?
Shelly, I don’t know that there are any rumored costs for Castle, which would make a chart like this even more speculative.
CraigUK, you might be right though I think my estimates for International revenue for Dollhouse were liberal and on the high side of what actually happened. Heroes could be more popular internationally than it is here. I don’t get any sense of that about Dollhouse.
Heroes is one of the biggest International hits out of the US in the last 20 years and I don’t think it’s very useful in informing us how much Dollhouse made in international licensing. Even NOW Heroes is still outperforming Dollhouse in US ratings by nearly 300%
I know that seems wacky, but…
Scott, I did not (and don’t) assume DVD sales form a direct relationship per episode. I kept things at an episode level merely for the sake of simplicity.
I *do* think it likely one of the reasons Reilly wanted to roll the dice on the show was DVD potential.
Shelly, we’ll see. Lack of of information makes that tough. Even guesstimates to guide me in general direction– aren’t available for Castle for the non-TV related revenue in the way they are for Dollhouse. Neither are estimates around cost per episode.
Thanks Bill for the answer.
Julia says:
“International rights were sold prior to the first season. Do you really think that they would continue to pay fees like that if the results weren’t superb? Does anyone know what sort of ratings Dollhouse had for the BBC?”
It appears to have aired on Sci-Fi UK. A lone data point:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/yelhk7x
I admit I’m not very well versed on UK ratings, but 263k does not seem like a smash hit at all.
Hmm, I figured lack of info might be a problem. Thanks anyway, Robert.
I wonder if it’s possible to turn Dollhouse into one of those web-only series we hear about but few people watch. I couldn’t care less about it but could that be a way to keep it going?
You’re right, Julia: less than one million is a bad ratings number even for the UK. To get a comparison, one of their dancing shows (Strictly Come Dancing) gets somewhere in the vicinity of 7 million viewers per episode (it varies from week to week). If you think it’s because it’s a native BBC show and those would be higher than the American import shows, you could be right, but here’s another number for you: the last episode of FlashForward got a viewership of 3.2 million. Any way you look at it, I seriously doubt the BBC is impressed with Dollhouse’s performance any more than Fox is. Someone feel free to correct me if I’m wrong.
no get the show off tv at least network tv
I just hope FOX burns off all episodes. Thats the most important thing, too bad Fifth Grader and Lyrics are gone. Those 2 actually performed the best on fridays than any other friday series (save for House and Bones repeats) Maybe FOX should have tried this
Fridays
8:00 COPS
8:30 COPS
9:00 America’s Most Wanted
They tried this friday night for one night (February 6, 2009 because of NASCAR the following saturday) and it did well.
And then maybe they could have 8 and 9 on saturdays be House and Bones repeats, or reruns of new dramas, movies etc.
Dan, there’s certainly no chance FOX would move its Saturday lineup to Friday on a permanent basis. It has been too successful for too long where it is.
Robert – While I do agree with you, it seems that the crime lineup could help fridays out (where there’s competition) as opposed to saturdays (where it seems there is virtually no other original programming) Its just a thought, but you could see based on the Brothers/Til Death/Dollhouse disaster that anything else could help.
shelly says:
“Any way you look at it, I seriously doubt the BBC is impressed with Dollhouse’s performance any more than Fox is. Someone feel free to correct me if I’m wrong.”
Again, it’s not on the BBC. To assess the effect of being on a smaller network, it might be worth looking at what Heroes did before and after its move from Sci Fi UK to BBC(2?), assuming the data are lying around somewhere.
I’m just waiting for full season renewals for
ABC: Flashforward, Modern Family, Cougar Town
CBS: NCIS: LA
CW: The Vampire Diaries, Melrose Place
NBC: Community
FOX’s Glee has already been renewed
Dan says:
“FOX’s Glee has already been renewed”
Picking up the back nine isn’t a “renewal.”
Dan, assuming that ultimately everything currently running on FOX on Fridays is burned off, running House/Lie to Me/Fringe/Glee reruns could help Fridays out, too. And without breaking something that already works (Saturdays).
Dan, your ABC and CBS shows will definitely get back 9 orders. VD on CW will, with MP probably getting 18 episodes total. And I expect Community to get a back 9, no matter how much it falls on its face at 8, simply because that’s what NBC does.
Boris, how old is that Dollhouse number? I did some research at Digital Spy UK and that was the number for the Dollhouse series premiere. Do you know how the second season is doing because I couldn’t find that info, nor could I find how well Heroes’s current season is doing. I did however find that when it premiered, Heroes had well over 600 thousand viewers. But that number is probably far lower now for the Scifi UK Heroes airings.
I found that Warehouse 13 on the Scifi UK airs somewhere in the vicinity of 240 thousand viewers now, and its highest episode had 372 thousand viewers. So if that Dollhouse number you found is the viewership for the latest episode, it’s doing about what Warehouse 13 is doing on Scifi UK, only a little bit better. I don’t know how good or bad that is.
Really though, how much does Fox care how well Dollhouse does overseas if it tanks here?
Some links to UK ratings info:
http://www.barb.co.uk/
weekly channels recap
http://www.barb.co.uk/report/weeklyViewingSummaryOverview
weekly top 30 for BBC1, ITV1, BBC3, C4 and Five
http://www.barb.co.uk/report/weeklyTopProgrammesOverview?_s=3
and weekly top 10 for multichannels offerings
http://www.barb.co.uk/report/weeklyTopProgrammes?_s=3
That’s from the comments of this post from Fin from August:
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/08/28/a-look-across-the-pond-american-tv-in-british-waters/
Really though, how much does Fox care how well Dollhouse does overseas if it tanks here?
Well, if all Fox cares about is it being profitable (or more profitable than other choices), then how it performs overseas, and therefore how much money they can bring in for international licensing, does matter to them.
shelly says:
“Boris, how old is that Dollhouse number? I did some research at Digital Spy UK and that was the number for the Dollhouse series premiere. Do you know how the second season is doing because I couldn’t find that info, nor could I find how well Heroes’s current season is doing.”
If the first season of Dollhouse premiered in the UK on May 19 of this year, I’d guess that the second season isn’t airing yet. No idea about Heroes.
Julia, I did realize it matters to them but I guess I wasn’t clear when I asked my question. My point is, if a show is not doing well enough here but does well somewhere else, is that really enough to save it and if so, just how well would that show have to be doing elsewhere to stick around here?
In other words, Dollhouse is tanking here but let’s say it’s doing okay by UK tv standards. Would that really be enough for Fox to salvage it for another season even when it loses them so much money in the US? Because that seems nonsensical to me.
Shelly, the point is that if the show is getting the sort of numbers quoted last season (well over the $400k Robert used here) the show isn’t losing the studio money. I guess it just depends how the licensing deal for Fox Broadcast is worked out, because it’s possible it could still be losing the network money, but it is all the same place in the end anyway. But, I would guess that whatever numbers were quoted for the first season are not what it is getting for the second season.
Boris – I meant renewed for a full season. Not a second year. American Idol, Bones and FOX’s entire animation block already have been renewed for 2010-11 as well as 100% likely 24, House, COPS, America’s Most Wanted.
Robert – Your right there. House/Bones/Glee/Lie to Me repeats would be good for fridays but hopefully they will find some programming that will actually work for the night. But Fifth Grader and Lyrics worked for thurdays and FOX moved that combo to fridays. The onbly reason I mentioned Saturday is because its a night with very little competition. I would never say for FOX to move House or Bones to fridays because they’re doing great on 2 very competitive nights.
Julia – Community could do horrible but it has good reviews and good retention out of The Office. I bet Community will turn out like The Office or 30 Rock by doing not so great its first year but then gradually gaining viewers. Its a definite. Melrose Place may get around 24 as well as Vampire Diaries. Melrose doesnt have ratings but it it does have the 90210 franchise helping it so I do see a nice 24 eps. Vampire Diaries will get 24 eps just because because its popular. I expect a NCIS: LA renewal soon, I could see that series on for years, and Flashforward because its doing much better than Ugly Betty did and because ABC’s other new dramas seem flat (Eastwick, Forgotten)
Shelly, first I don’t think we have any data to suggest that the show did well by UK standards, even on the channel it aired on.
Doing well in the UK by itself probably wouldn’t make that much difference. But if it’s doing very well internationally in general (no data to suggest that is the case) and my estimates for international revenue are too low by a lot, it’s conceivable that FOX would stick with it even with its tiny ratings in the USA.
Even WITHOUT the international money, whether the show costs $1 million or $650K per episode it’s NOT losing money for FOX in the US. However, by airing it, FOX broadcast network loses the opportunity to air something else that could potentially make more ad revenue. See House example above.
Robert – Also one possible Dollhouse replacement by January, could be new Lie to Me should FOX give it a full year. Otherwise Lie to Me could air post Idol Tuesdays until Past Life premieres. Kitchen Nightmares could also be a 9:00 friday contender.
Dan, I already noted “Lie to Me” as one of the alternatives in a comment above. I am interested to see how FOX winds up utilizing Kitchen Nightmares this year though. Personally, I think reruns of previous seasons of Hell’s Kitchen might do better, particularly on a Friday, but that’s just me
Robert – Yeah I agree, I just wouldnt use reruns of the series (Lie to Me). I would think that FOX would only move Lie to Me to fridays if they had given the series a full year, but ratings have gone down and they have given up on it (Terminator). Like Terminator, Lie got a second year and so far its second season has done OK (after House). FOX could give it the Idol boost back to Lie if they really want to save it. I dont think FOX would rerun Hell’s Kitchen, they do have 2 more seasons of the series (1 for winter-spring and 1 for summer-fall), but I dont think theyd put new Hell’s on fridays. I do think that since Kicthen Nightmares is lower rated and still cheap to make, FOX could test that out on fridays at 9 in January, atleast until they find a new replacement, or they could air Nightmares is the summer. Nightmares wont get a plum Idol slot, while Hell’s might on tuesdays. Only time will tell.
The only thing I would NOT do is break up Mondays or Thursdays
8:00 House
9:00 24
and
8:00 Bones
9:00 Fringe
both should be left alone until May.
With the cheapest episode range of $650,0000, on a show that doesn’t have any special effects to speak of, no flying monkeys or Battlestars to damage…
I’m considering going into the movie business!
What- are you kidding me? Because it’s in hollywood, the actors (almost all are unknown in this example) are getting several thousand dollars for showing up, there’s liabilities and prop costs- they musta bought the best bagles this nation has ever known!
Thanks for the price breakdown; it’s lightened my day, and put everything in to a checked reality.
Breaking news!
tvbythenumbers.com will change name to dollhousebythenumbers.com
Story at 11
Dan says:
“Boris — I meant renewed for a full season. Not a second year.”
If I hadn’t known what you meant, I wouldn’t have pointed out the peculiarity of your nomenclature.
Boris – OK thanks
Even if DH is profitable, here or overseas, I still can’t see Fox flushing Fridays with those kind of numbers. Til Death is profitable for Fox, but it still has many unaired episodes from seasons past because the ratings were too poor. There are lowered expectations on Fridays, but a 0.8 in the demo is just not enough to keep a place in the line-up. If it does so well overseas, Fox Studios should just sell in into first-run syndication.
Doug (2) – While other series would normally get pulled after a few eps on fridays, I really think FOX would just air out the series and get rid of it. Another guess is that FOX pulls Dollhouse after its 7th ep and ends up burning the show off in the summer but that would just be delaying the inevitable. FOX has 11 episodes left to air, they may as well burn em off somehow.
This thread reminds me of a question I’ve had for forever…Why does Sony keep making Til Death? Do they have a worldwide deal that is so profitable it can ignore U.S. ratings? If it is for syndication I’m confused. I always thought money was made in second run syndication specifically because a show’s first run was popular enough to get many episodes, not just because so many episodes are available. Who can sell 100 episodes of a lead balloon?
I can think of one product placement sponsor–every time someone is on a computer, it’s a Dell. Not sure how much that helps.
Bitey – A cheap syndication deal with FOX back in January gave this series a full 22 episode year, so the series will be sold into syndication. In its first 3 seasons Til Death had 54 episodes produced (22 in Season 1, 19 in Season 2, and 13 in Season 3) with Sonys deal 22 more eps were produced so now the series has a total of 76 episodes for syndication. Should Til Death get a fifth year it will have 98 eps, however the only reason its still around is because of the cheap deal. And though Death, may have horrible ratings, it may do well in syndication.
The only thing is that FOX didnt air the remaining Season 3 episodes (There are 10 left). They should have burned them off in the summer.
I do not see why you are wasting time with this ha
i watched the pilot..and it was HORRIBLE!!
im suprised 2 mil people tune into it…
could we get this kind of data on a GOOD show…
like…house,criminal minds,24!!!!
GOD i love 24!!!
but question:is season 8 the last season for 24?
Robert, I always like your assessments. They come straight from the numbers and have seldom personal influences into it. (Which makes them so valuable, but painful sometimes if you understand
.
But I think, you forget something small here: It’s not just the cost vs. House. Fox could probably play House five times a week, and someone would watch that ad infinitum.
When I watch Dollhouse, I can’t stop the feeling that Fox simply lets Joss do his thing, because they fear he could remember that he can really get into good characters and has that devout userbase. And there are some networks out there who could put probably $2m into each ep of something *different* than Dollhouse, add some A-Lister to it – and look how that works. For example *against* House .)
I have somehow the same feeling with JJ and Fringe (and had it much more with Alias). How in the earth they let him go with that show for such a long time? And why can Chris Carter (as its said officially) could do another X Files movie out of that bad last movies’ revenue?
It can’t be the franchise, it can’t be the numbers. They only reason I can see is: keep those wheel spinners happy. Because you know, if they are unhappy they *could* harm your ratings. They know how all of it works. And if those are hungry, they find a network who will finance their madness.
-Steven
Dan, I think Fox would be able to make more money saving any unaired episodes of DH for the DVD and try to drive sales with that. If they have a whole half season of new material, they make actually get people to buy it.
As there’s been some talk about it, here are the official final ratings for the show in the UK. I’ve only included the first regular airing and the first +1 airing of each (along with its weekly ranking for the network), mind you; it was repeated a few times over the course of the week.
Ep.01 – 318k (2nd) + 111k (1st)
Ep.02 – No data
Ep.03 – 185k (2nd) + 101k (1st)
Ep.04 – 246k (2nd) + 086k (1st)
Ep.05 – 243k (2nd) + 094k (1st)
Ep.06 – 245k (2nd) + 100k (1st)
Ep.07 – 189k (2nd) + 146k (1st)
Ep.08 – 180k (2nd) + 082k (1st)
Ep.09 – 280k (2nd) + 076k (1st)
Ep.10 – 213k (2nd) + 089k (1st)
Ep.11 – 176k (2nd) + 085k (1st)
Ep.12 – 231k (2nd) + 067k (1st)
Ep.13 – 193k (4th) + 074k (1st)
These wouldn’t be the best ratings in the world obviously, but for the Sci-Fi channel (as it’s still called over here), they’re actually pretty decent; more than double most of their schedule in fact, a lot of which gets below 100k. These are roughly comparable to what most subscription only channels (barring Sky1) pull in.
@Julia
The UK TV market has a definitive split that is similar but clearly different to the way the US market works.
At the moment TV is split into 5 simplistic delivery platforms.
1. Terrestrial Analogue – Due to be fully phased out by 2012. Consists of 5 Channels BB1, BBC2, ITV1, Channel 4, Five. Effectively 100% national reach. Totally Free.
2. Terrestrial Digital – Due to replace 1 above by 2012, currently rolling out nationwide in stages. In effect about 30 ‘proper’ TV Channels BBC1-4, ITV1-4, Channel 4 (+3 variants), Five (+2 variants), Virgin, Dave, History, and a few others and then about 30 Radio Stations (+assorted shopping and information channels). Totally Free.
3. Freesat – Same channels as 2 above + about another 20 TV and loads of radio stations. Currently the only way to get free HD in the UK. Totally Free.
4. Sky Satellite – 500+ Channels (many many are real dross), probably 100ish ‘real’ channels + 20 HD channels. Charges between $25 and $80 per month. Reach for Paid Sky is about 7m homes (I know Sky claim more but they include non subscribers in their numbers).
5. Virgin Cable – As per 4 above, about 100 ‘real’ channels. Same Charges as 4 roughly. Reach is about 1m homes.
In the UK many shows will get ‘first run’ on the Sky/Virgin platform because of the way the business model works here.
Sky collect all the revenue from their 7m customers then ‘pay’ channels (with assorted cross charges and clawbacks) to be on their delivery platform. Therefore in many instances the ‘first run’ of a program will be on a channel that pays a premium for that program to bump their profile as well as get their numbers up. 250k viewers on Sky would be a fairly decent viewing figure. However the same show, if popular, when shown later on terrestrial would likely get a much larger viewing audience.
That’s why in my post earlier I stated that US shows will in effect get two revenue streams from the UK, first run on Satellite then Broadcast at a later stage and most likely on a totally different channel (but you can’t think of it like syndication, it’s different here).
The main channels here (BBC1, BBC2, ITV1, Channel 4, Five) have a requirement to offer a mixed and diverse program selection but generally have much much larger audiences (although being eroded the same way as in the States).
The most consistently popular shows in the UK are two evening Soaps,on BBC1 Eastenders and on ITV1 Coronation Street. They are both much grittier and ‘real world’ then American soaps (although obviously have more excitement then you would find in most streets) and although both are transmitted 3 nights a week generally get about 9m viewers per episode IIRC. Now you have to keep in mind that’s 9m with population base roughly 1/5th of the States so it equates to a show getting a 45m audience 3 nights a week in the States.
To give you an example of how much the main 5 channels dominate here are a few random programmes that are likely familiar to you and their numbers….
Figures for week of Sep 14-20th
BBC1 – Antiques Roadshow 5.59m viewers – US equivalent 27.5m
BBC2 – University Challenge 3.03m (2nd most popular show of the week) – Us equivalent 15m – US version was called College Bowl.
ITV1 – Countrywise (series about rural and coastal life) 3.39m – Us equivalent 17m
Channel 4 – Location, Location, Location (program about doing up and selling house) 2.97m – Us equivalent 15m
Five – The Gadget Show (program about new consumer items from Fridges to Phones) 1.56m – Us equivalent 7.5m
Now the production budget for some of these shows will be unbelievably cheap, if University Challenge costs $100k per episode I’d be amazed and the Gadget Show probably around $200k at a guess but it shows you the strength of the ‘Main 5′ channels.
I’ve heard figures bandied around that the cost per 30 minute episode of one of the Soaps is about £170k ($260k), but you have to remember these shows air 52 weeks a year. A lead actor on Eastenders will make about £200k ($320k) PER YEAR (not per episode) from the show and plenty of extra from personal appearance money et al….
Can you imagine how happy any US network would be to be able to get programming for say $500k per hour and an audience equivalent of 45m people 3 nights a week!!
That’s one of the reasons I’ve been so vociferous about NBC throwing the towel in, the ‘Main 5′ channels in the UK are getting eroded the same way as the US Networks are, but good and popular programming can still be made cheaply if people are creative enough (although I don’t watch any of the Soaps myself). From a distance it’s just so patently clear that it’s the production structure that adds so much cost to US productions with little added value.
This is just one man’s view, hope you find it useful.
Craig, thanks for the info. A couple of things:
1. When you say totally free, does that mean there is no longer a tax on TV? A friend who grew up on London told me something about that, but I don’t know if it’s still in effect.
2. Since you can get such cheap programming over there, doesn’t the figure of £500 per episode of Dollhouse, to air on one of the cable or satellite channels (I’m not sure which Sci Fi is over there) seem outrageous?
and 3. I think the problem with your beef with NBC is that the DGA/WGA/SAG unions all have deals in place that make it impossible to get that cheap with scripted programming for primetime. Daytime soaps are produced around the price you’re talking about, but scale for daytime is lower than scale for broadcast primetime. While I do agree that NBC shouldn’t be throwing in the towel, I don’t think cheaper is the answer, because in the US, cheaper usually means unscripted.
Licence fee for each TV, video card that can receive TV, and so forth, does still exist – basic rates are £142.50 for color sets, £48 for black and white – with concession prices for seniors, and other categories…
…basic FAQ here: http://www.tvlicensing.co.uk/information/index.jsp
As oacme said, but it’s per house if the house has one TV or one hundred.
The union issue in the States I hadn’t taken account of, is that one of the reasons so many productions are now done in Vancouver, Bogata etc…?
The Tax on TV actually pays for 4 TV channels, 1 HD TV Channel, numerous Radio stations, BBC website and all kinds of other stuff. You may not be aware that the BBC broadcasts without any advertisements and notwithstanding a small but very noisy minority who want it abolished the vast majority of the public love the ‘Beeb’.
I wouldn’t say outrageous for Dollhouse, an hour of quality Drama in the UK costs about £500k (so about $750k), however when I hear some shows cost around $3m per episode I fall about laughing. It just seems to me that there are huge ‘built in’ costs to TV production in the States. I remember reading Josh Friedmans diatribe when TSCC was shutdown and he said something like the production company was charging him $50k per month for a small on lot office.
No one of course can get any transparency regarding budget spent on actual programs and how much on ‘overhead’, it’s just the cost of doing business.
is that one of the reasons so many productions are now done in Vancouver, Bogata etc…?
No, scale is scale no matter where it is produced (as long as it is a WGA, DGA, SAG, etc production) but Canada and several states offer tax credits for film and TV productions. Which has been horrible for California’s economy, and has prompted California to offer tax credit as well, though it may be too little too late.
Would House reruns cut into their syndicated profits at all?
Kind of irrelevent projection at the top. The NBC/Universal deal that gets House on USA Network precludes it ever competing with Fox network programming. House cannot air opposite of House. So, you will never see House on a Friday night.
Just saying. You can use other programming, but you can’t use House in that slot..
Chris, I don’t know the particulars of the House deal, but every deal that I have heard about has only stated that syndicated programming cannot compete with originals. If House has a different deal, it’s another story.
Julia – Thats true, that one unaired Epitaph One, was saved for the DVD, but idk if it helped. I atleast think FOX would air, maybe 7 eps, or into November. The only reason I’d figure that Dollhouse would air all episodes is that FOX made a big deal about renewing it that they may as well air it out. If a drama does bad on FOX in the fall its either pulled or moved to fridays. Since the show is already on fridays, theres no where to burn it off.
Chris – USA currently airs new Monk at 9 fridays, so I’m sure FOX could air repeats then (In Dollhouse’s slot) I dont think thats against anything.
it saddens me that this is what it all comes down to. What about the fantastic creation they are putting together with Dollhouse?
I have watched every episode so far, on tape (yes, “tape”). But always on Friday nights. I don’t have a box, so it doesn’t matter. I haven’t bought the DVDs yet, but I will, especially if they manage to make it through a whole season 2.
S2 Episode 2 was a great improvement over the season 2 premiere. Even though the preview for it looked lame.
I don’t have any clue how they will get more viewers though. I know lots of Joss fans who don’t watch because the early Season 1 episodes put them off.
But I will keep watching, it’s the only TV show that I watch on a live broadcast basis, everything else I get the DVDs from Netflix. I wouldn’t watch a House rerun, but I don’t watch House anyway.
I don’t think FOX should cancel Dollhouse because of profits (or lack thereof).
They should cancel it because it SUCKS.
It’s time to pull the plug on this turkey. I’m as big a JW fan as anyone, but the first two new episodes have featured disorienting plots that are barely worthy of a daytime soap. This franchise is going nowhere but down.
If it were a first year series, It would be gone after 2 or 3 eps. But since its returning, FOX may give it some time to burn off. It was a low rated show to begin with that FOX renewed, axing it this early would make them look stupid, while slowly letting it die, will assert that their decision was OK. Maybe FOX could think after 6 eps that Dollhouse will improve.
Andrew says: “it saddens me that this is what it all comes down to. What about the fantastic creation they are putting together with Dollhouse?”
If not for the money, Dollhouse would be a book because that is what is cheap enough for one writer to make without worrying about costs. No matter how fantastic, more than 95% of books published don’t sell more than three hundred copies. How’d you like Dollhouse to be in THAT business?
Why be sad? Over a million more people saw Dollhouse than if Joss Whedon were a novelist. If not for the hope of money that TV production demands, you probably never would have seen it. Don’t curse the need for revenue, thank it.
Who cares about Friday nights in general?
The networks obviously don’t, hence the ratings are pretty irrelavent. Can you name the last Friday HIT that played there for a decade?
Dollhouse with a $1 million budget (give or take)? No wonder its crappy.
SciFi in the UK is in danger of alienating its viewers – every series they show either has already been cancelled by the time it airs on Sky or Virgin, or gets cancelled shortly after. It feels like we’re getting the scraps from your table – but from what I’m reading it’s an inherent problem with Fox & CBS sci-fi shows: nobody ever seems to be left alone long enough to tell a full story. All we see are series with hastily cobbled together wrap-up finales thrown together when the writers were halfway through the major story arc they’d set out wanting to give us.
FOX is a global multi-media empire.
They have TV stations world-wide.
They need product.
Product that has a cult following, that can capture new viewers over time, has a value way above and beyond the simple ad revenue when it is first broadcast.
They also know Whedon product has longevity and that DVD sales will go on for years and years and years.
Dollhouse is immensely, immensely valuable to them.
FOX sees the big picture, why can’t all the fans and commentators?
Re. product placement – Apple Computer, I could have sworn that the dolls wear shoes (easy to get a deal there if Whedon is willing) and if I am Ikea Dollhouse is the place for me.
Re product placement — Apple Computers? Seriously? Chuck’s Subway campaign worked because anyone could show their support with five bucks. Over and over again. People aren’t going to be dropping two grand to support any TV show, let alone this one. Same goes with IKEA furniture. And honestly, how many pairs of new shoes is the average viewers going to buy.
Youleft out 1 source of revenue – international dvd sales.
Is the budget really that low?? No wonder Dollhouse sucks!
DueyL – FOX HAD to make the budget that low in order to keep the series. Anyway I dont think the series will last past tonight’s episode.