Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 4, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Beautiful Life: TBL | 0.49* |
| Melrose Place | 0.80 |
| 90210 | 0.95 |
| Smallville (F) | 0.95 |
| Gossip Girl | 1.10 |
| One Tree Hill | 1.10 |
| Supernatural (S) | 1.20 |
| Vampire Diaries | 1.65 |
-
Now that The Beautiful Life is gone, Melrose Place is the only remaining poor performing scripted show for the CW that the network seems to want to try and save (like Privileged last season). There were lots of “Privileged isn’t dead yet!” sorts of headlines in the spring that I warned fans to ignore before it was finally cancelled. Look for the same with Melrose Place this season as the CW PR team does that voodoo that they do so well.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
-
Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday’s have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:
- (p) – Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
i wonder when they’ll premiere Life Unexpected?
How did Privileged do as compared to what Melrose Place is doing?
i think its around the same maybe slightly better than melrose
i think that this cw slot it cursed!!nothing perform well from cw’s beginning!!!
veronica mars-cancelled
beauty & the geeek-cancelled
reaper-cancelled
privileged-cancelled
melrose place -hope that cw wont cancel it!its very good!!!!!!!
This show is actually pretty good. But Ashlee Simpson is such a bad actor that she is bringing the show down. They need to get rid of her, if they want the show to get better
I haven’t watched a thing on CW since Veronica Mars was canceled.
the CW needs to make a TV adaptation of Blood & Chocolate and pair it up with Vampire Diaries = another hit
The only thing i like about Melrose place was the actress that was in TSCC but it wasnt enought to keep me interested in the show.
George- I don’t think it’s the slot that is cursed. I think the network is cursed. How else can you explain Dawn being the head of the network. SOMEONE made a deal with the devil to put her in power for this long!
I still think that Melrose and Vampire are safe to return. All of the new reality programs will be scrapped, but Melrose will be renewed just because its part of the 90210 remake franchise. Vampire is an actual hit. Smallville may be let go however.
privileged did much better last season than melrose is doing.
and the timeslot isnt cursed as both reaper and beauty and the geek did quite well. reaper was cancelled due to not fitting the target demo and beauty was cancelled becuase its numbers were lower than previous seasons (though still not bad for the cw)
Every show did better. Beauty was cancelled because numbers were lower though they are higher than Melrose. Reaper did good in the demo normally, but it didnt fit The CW so it was axed. Privileged did better than Melrose but ultimately it didnt to well enough for CW to bring it back. CW wants to save Melrose though so im sure they will keep it at tuesdays at 9 for the whole season.
gossip girl is doing worse than smallvile i think
I think The CW should try moving Melrose to Monday before Gossip Girl. The only show that could do well on Tuesdays after 90210 is an established one like One Tree Hill.
last B&G’s season did pretty awful even for the current cw standards!!(sometimes less than 1.70 million viewers)last season reaper fell many times below 2 million viewers and its w18-34 ratings was pretty low!!privileged start better but with the same w18-34rat (and even slightly lower than MP)as of cursed it was more a ”joke”.if i was speak literally i would said that all the network is cursed cause it has ostroff as a boss!!!!!!!
W 18-34 GG 2.88, Vampire 2.73, Top Model 2.52, 90210 2.28, One Tree Hill 2.2, Melrose Place 1.79, Supernatural 1.63
Not sure about Smallville, but the 2nd episode got a 0.7, so, you know, not so good.
The CW needs to replace this with a show about a bunch of rich, pretty, young people who live in a trendy location. The storylines would revolve around the drama in their lives. They could target young women.
Adjusted for final #’s W 18-34 GG 2.93, Vampire 2.73, Top Model 2.52, 90210 2.28, One Tree Hill 2.23, Melrose Place 1.79, Supernatural 1.63
I know why CW is airing Melrose repeats on Wednesday but with things not looking so good for the show already, maybe they should air 90210 repeats instead since that show seems to be slipping into the danger zone. With the show apparently reworked some, maybe they need to try and protect a show that’s trying to keep it’s head above water rather than one that seems to be drowning.
I was a big fan of the original, but the new show is not good, not very entertaining. People always look for excuses as to why a show makes it or doesn’t. I honestly think the reason ratings are falling is because the show isn’t good. People might have turned in for curiosity but stopped watching. I can’t imagine that even Heather Locklear herself will be able to turn things around unless the show’s writing, scripts and acting improve.
Charlene,
Gossip Girl is a much cheaper show to product compared to Smallville which is in its ninth season. If anything, I expect Smallvile and either Supernatural/One Tree Hill to go this year. If they renew Melrose, and Life Unexpected they won’t have many slots open for new shows if they keep the above 3 classics.
i actually like the melrose place´s remake since the begining, not like the last season with 90210.I don´t know why their ratings haven´t grew up since the premiere…
Get rid of Ashlee Simpson and I just might be bothered to watch it. Bonus points for a tragic violent death. I’ll be right on top of that episode.
Life Unexpected will probably replace MP in January.
Wasn’t Mischa Barton offered a role on Melrose Place?
It probably won’t have made a difference, but you never know.
It does look like CW offered Ashlee Simpson the role because always in the tabloids.
“I don´t know why their ratings haven´t grew up since the premiere…”
Because other people(including myself) that watched it had a different opinion…
“Bonus points for a tragic violent death. I’ll be right on top of that episode.”
Perhaps Stephanie Jacobsen can strangle and shoot her. She did well in clearing out another disliked character on another series.
CW has a series produced by Ashton Kutcher and another starring Ashlee Simpson, and they wonder…
Smallville and Supernatural are the only two shows I watch on the CW anymore (Used to also watch Reaper & Vampire Diaries)
Smallville will probably be biting the dust this year as the time slot is awful and there just isn’t much left to do without putting him in the Union Suit.
Supernatural is nearing the end of it’s five year arch that was originally the shows design so if it’s kept we’ll be seeing huge changes in the show. O.o
So I’m not sure how much longer the CW will even be a recognized network in my household LOL
Isn’t it all but official that both Smallville and Supernatural are ending this year? Smallville’s drop will most likely ensure its finish date but it’ll be interesting to see if the WB can force a spin-off or another DC hero onto Dawn next year as they’ve been planning to for a while. Meanwhile everyone involved in Supernatural has been talking about the ‘five year plan’ since day one and that it would be five seasons and out for the show, unless I’m mistaken this is Supernatural’s fifth season…
Elsewhere at The CW I’d be amazed if Melrose got yanked before mid season and I’d be surprised if it got yanked before the end of the season period. It seems to me that Dawn is going to stubbornly stick with this and refuse to admit defeat until the last possible moment. And as far as Life Unexpected goes I’m interested to see if it can last longer than The Beautiful Life given that from all reports its even worse than TBL was.
Jesse, as you see smallville yes ahs bad ratings right now but I dont see it being cancelled considering what it says on the top of this page in what F means and I qoute what Bill said”Fridays: Shows airing on Friday’s have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.” and the show is beating fox right now so Im not giving up on Smallville and there is still a 3/4 chance of it being renewed since the show is prepared for a 10th season. As for Supernatural Eric Kripke stated that if the show has good enough ratings and if he wants to and Jared and Jensen will stay there is a possibility for a season 6 because they can start a new chapter in the series. As of right now their ratings are pretty good and they’re only in their 5th episode out of 22 so dont give up on these 2 yet.
and might I add that it also states that (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal. and Supernatural is a S so there is a even better chance of it being renewed.
TIME WILL TELL!
Folks, the factors that will determine whether Supernatural and Smallville come back are likely not ratings related, they’ve got the ratings, but more along the lines of whether the producers and cast want to keep doing the shows. Of course, big checks can help that.
The index according to W18-34:
America’s Next Top Model – R 0.37
Smallville 0.42
The Beautiful Life 0.48
Melrose Place – R 0.53
Melrose Place 0.79
Supernatural 0.82
90210 1.19
One Tree Hill 1.24
America’s Next Top Model 1.35
Vampire Diaries 1.40
Gossip Girl 1.48
Julia, here’s one issue with focusing on W18-34 averages with the CW shows (one reason I didn’t do theirs that way). Although the CW clearly *wants* women 18-34, you’ve got to believe they sell ad time based on whatever viewership they get, so while Smallville gets a knock in the “Dawn’s strategic focus” column, it’s not clear that the money made from the show isn’t more in line with its 18-49 average.
Well there is another big factor with Smallville. DC comics is due to lost rights to Superman in 2013 back to the creator’s family. (Which has caused a bit of worry with Marvel being bought by Disney and having more bidding power than it previously had) That might also factor into the continued survival of Smallville as a show on the CW Though if memory serves DC does hold the rights to Smallville and all the “young Superman” stuff. It’s all going to be interesting to see how it plays out.
Oh, I agree. As I said last week, I can’t imagine Supernatural looked any better last year, and yet it was renewed, so obviously there are other factors. But I’m tracking the final ratings anyway, so it’s just a matter of a few clicks in Excel, and people seem to be interested in it.
CW wants both series, but the Supernatural producers want to end the show. It should be back in 2010-2011. Smallville is 50/50. The producers may want the show to finish up but The CW may want to keep it. It isnt a question of ratings at this point, its the fact that Smallville is getting older.
I’m really hoping that Supernatural ends this year. I adore it and don’t want to see it go, but at the same time, there’s not really anywhere you can go after the Apocalypse and Lucifer walking the earth. XD
I’m also still bitter at the CW for making it seem like Privileged might get renewed. I loved that show.
Bill, how long till Dawn Ostroff is fired and the CW PR team is allowed to run the network?
Dan, the supernatural producers dont want to end the show neccesarily because they can make a new chapter in the series with same characters sam and dean. Eric Kripke and the producers stated that were planning a 5 year story arc but if they could and do go another season it would start a WHOLE new chapter in the series. As for Smallville Tom Welling and Erica Durance already signed on for a season 10 and kelly souders and brian peterson said they would stay. They have a series finale plaanned if this is their last but they said they could change it if its renewed.
Jill, I disagree I hope they go another season because it is true what could they do after Lucifer and the apocalypse but the show always surprises us and I bet they could come up with a really good second chapter to the series
Justin – I guess that means that Supernatural will be starting a sixth year with a new story arc then. While Smallville is 50/50 to return more toward it getting renewed.
Is there anyway of finding out the number of downloads a show gets on iTunes or Amazon.com? Thanx in advance.
james, occasionally we see iTunes numbers in the entertainment media or press releases, but nothing on a regular basis.
Melrose Place is going to be canceled
CW must be happy with the Vampire Diaries.
They should move Smallville into Wed 9/8c
I personally think 90210 and Melrose Place’s writers attempt to drive these shows away from their root concepts will be the end of both of these shows. You can’t do this without alienating fans of the originals therefore driving some of the watcher base away.
Thanks Bill, we were discussing the value of iTunes, Amazon.com and such to TV shows. Just trying to figure out some raw numbers and if those numbers can help a show out enough to help keep it on the air.
I still do not understand why MELROSE PLACE’s ratings aren’t going up – the show is fantastic, and gets better with every episode – I thought people would pick up on that. Wasn’t it a sure-fire hit? I still don’t get why it isn’t doing better -it’s a great show.
I don’t see why Smallville wouldn’t be renewed for a final 10th season. The producers are on record saying they want a season 10, they have Welling signed for a 10. The show makes money through DVD and other venues.
What else can CW put on Friday and get the ratings they are getting? Last Friday Smallville was preempted in NY for a Mets game, yet stayed above 2 million.
Do you honestly think the CW will dump Melrose when they have just signed for Heather to return? If the ratings dont go above the 2 million mark after she returns then the show will play out season 1 and then get the axe.
Its a shame, its getting stronger every episode.
Craig, no one has suggested that Melrose Place will be pulled anytime soon. In fact, the prose in this article suggests that it will get extra episodes above 13. But it will be canceled at the end of the season.
i really hope supernatural ends this year. it’s my favourite show, but i want the actors and the crew to go on their own way, far far away from the cw and the gossip crap that infected it! and when supernatural is gone, what are they going to put on that slot?? so curious.. gossip girl reruns?? ahahah
Are you guys cool with SpoilerTV ripping off your Renew/Cancel Index? Seems really lame on their part.
If Smallville get renewed for a tenth season then for sure it will be its final season. They will be able finish the story they want to tell.
Wow. I’m just amazed at the folks who have nothing better to do in their lives than to come on this board and bash The CW and Dawn Ostroff on a daily basis. Pretty sad existence. I tend to believe that CW could schedule Buffy, Gilmore, Veronica, Felicity, Body Politic, and every other cult favorite, and you people would STILL find a reason to complain. It’s pretty puzzling. Exactly why are you so hellbent on the failure of a network? Do you not LIKE having more choice? Would you really prefer all reality crap?
Yeah, yeah, I know….you’ll bash me, as usual, but why not take a look at your own motives. To celebrate the low ratings of a show, to hope that people are put out of work…I just don’t get that at all.
Well said, Jace. There is A LOT of CW bashing going on.
As for Melrose Place, it is a great show that has exceeded my expectations, and is getting stronger with each episode. Count me as one that hopes it stays around for a while.
Should there be worry about Gossip Girl getting renewed? It’s not performing nearly as well as it did last season, but the demographic ratings are still the highest, right?
Does the CW not actually care about the demographics as much as they say they do? I mean, I know Melrose Place would have to go before Gossip Girl does, but I’m slightly worried since Hilary Duff and Tyra Banks didn’t raise the rating any this week.
90210 and OTH both have higher overall ratings than GG, so is it possible they would stay and GG would get canceled? I hope not…
Sam, barring “lights out” at the CW or a show specific non-ratings event, Gossip Girl will be on the air next season.
Don, there im betting there is a 10% chance smallville will go more then 10 seasons because they can always make a movie to end it completely and they could do another chapter like supernatural. But as of now that is a just hoping right now tho we dont need to worry about it. Ask again maybe in March because they will tell us if it will be renewed or not.
Jace, Jace, Jace, . . . you poor, misguided soul. Tell the truth, now. Is Dawn paying you to come on here and defend the indefensible?
The cold, hard reality is that a new programming chief would be perfectly justified in canning every single program currently on the CW and starting over from scratch.
Now, we are all attached to our personal favorites, myself included, but that shouldn’t be a consideration. The health and well-being of the network is what matters. Having it expire from poor leadership and public apathy does not serve the cause of more and varied programming options.
The highest ratings the CW ever got should be the floor of their expectations, not the ceiling. And, it is indisputable that Dawn and the current CW management team has been, and continues to be, a hinderance to the networks chances for any real success.
Um, predicting that “Melrose Place” will be cancelled by May 2010 is not realistic as of yet. The show is going to be revamped in the coming weeks, and with Heather Locklear joining the cast November 17, as Amanda Woodward, the show will no doubt get way bigger ratimgs. Whoever wrote this story obviously is not very well suited for this business. The ratings for the show won’t even count in the eyes of the CW until Heather Locklear returns.
Bill – I agree. America’s Next Top Model, One Tree Hill, Supernatural, Gossip Girl, 90210, The Vampire Diaries are all returning next season. Smallville is 50/50 and Melrose qhile questionable, is leaning toward getting a second year. Its not doing great, but remember the veteran trio (Smallville, One Tree Hill, Supernatural) are getting older, so its good CW has young original series to stick around.
They need to just cancel Melrose and bring back Reaper but instead if it’s canceled I’m sure they’ll just make Dawson’s Creek with new kids living there.
GOSSIP GIRL FTW!
I’m happy it’s finally beating the jumped-the-shark Smallville.
Seriously.
Anyways, I hope Melrose Place gets canceled. It’s just as boring as 90210, which I also hope gets canceled.
I think MP is safe. I think the ratings will only improve. I also think if they air repeats of the show next summer it’ll do really well and people will tune in for season 2.
The new Melrose is actually better than the new 90210. It will be a shame if it gets cancelled and 90210 stays. Ashlee Simpson is the only one not performing well on Melrose, they need to wrap up her doe eyed story line with her being the murderer and sent off to jail never to return… and do so fast before she destroys the show.
Heradite says:
October 8, 2009 at 8:46 pm
GOSSIP GIRL FTW!
I’m happy it’s finally beating the jumped-the-shark Smallville.
Seriously.
Anyways, I hope Melrose Place gets canceled. It’s just as boring as 90210, which I also hope gets canceled.
Ur an idiot!
@The Punisher:
Am I? At least I can spell “you’re”. Now are you a Smallville fan? If so, I am sorry but after Lex Luthor left the show, I followed him out. I know the series still produces good episodes, but I’m done with it. A 90210/MP fan? I watch both weekly. Their still boring, but I’m just watching in case Jessica Walters comes back, and I still think MP can get better.
Anyways, why wasn’t this updated?
They should let Smallville stay on as long as they want. Smallville has given them now 9 seasons of a strong show. Since it is likely the Smallville cast will quit after seaoon 10, why not let them finish and show some appreciation for lasting this long. Its just too bad that as a show, Smallville will likely end when its plots and stories are at a peak. everyone wants superman and lois and clark to fall for each other, publicly. Anyway I hope Smallville goes on for many more seasons, but in terms of being realistic, at least give it a 10th season. great show deserves a better time slot for everything its done for CW, a distant 4th best station. Move Smallville to Wednesday!