Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 4, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F) | 0.57 |
| Three Rivers | 0.63 |
| Medium (F) | 0.67 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.67 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.68 |
| Cold Case | 0.72 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.75 |
| The Good Wife | 1.05 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (p) | 1.07 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.20 |
| CSI:NY | 1.22 |
| The Mentalist | 1.23 |
| CSI | 1.37 |
| Criminal Minds | 1.37 |
| CSI: Miami | 1.40 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | 1.42 |
| Two And A Half Men | 1.55 |
| NCIS | 1.60 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.67 |
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The premiere ratings for Three Rivers registered a flatline with viewers, and it’s now the most likely CBS show to be canceled prior to the end of the season. Based on recent CBS history with underperforming dramas, cancellation prior to November seems quite possible.
Cold Case improved a bit from last week, but is still in significant danger of being canceled before the end of the season. New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried are low once again, but what’s new? If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be fine for another renewal.
In response to some comments about color blindness and problems with the colors in the list, the shows in red (the greatest danger) are now also bolded. Does that help?
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday’s have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:
- (p) – Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I think if they drop one Wed comedy show, it would have to be Gary. If for nothing else, not does it not have as many eps as Christine, but CBS might want to keep Christine for the simple fact that they don’t want another network (ABC) to poach one of their shows.
You really feel Numbers’ ratings, even for Friday, are good enough to fall under “likely” for renewal?
I DON’T KNOW HOW YOU CAN JUDGE A SHOW’S SUCCESS BY JUST ONE SHOW. ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STEELERS WERE PLAYING OPPOSITE IT. THIS IS CRAZY!
Tom – I really feel that given the consistency in fridays and the night, Numb3rs is safe.
Nkinsey – I think Accidentally on Purpose is more likely to be replaced with Rules than Gary Unmarried. Gary’s retention out of Christine is a lot better than Accidentally out of Mother. If Accidentally keeps dropping then Rules will replace it by March.
As for Three Rivers, If my prediction is correct, it will be gone after the October 18th airing and replaced with Flashpoint. (Cold Case at 9, Flashpoint at 10). Cold Case will be cancelled by May, so start writing a series finale. I could see CBS dropping Old Cristine and airing Rules of Engagement/Gary Unmarried on wednesdays in fall 2010. CBS should just give Old Christine to ABC, and give Rules a chance. The Good Wife is doing good, but I dont see it returning for 2010-2011. Miami Trauma could temporarily replace Wife by March.
I think CBS & FOX will have the best kept shows – though I don’t watch most of them – if I had a lot of time their shows are what I would be trying & watching first.
Why are you so sure that How I Met Your Mother and Accidentally on Purpose will be renewed? They get much lower ratings than the other shows they air that night. If CBS develops better comedies for next year I wouldn’t be surprised if these got the ax.
I’m hoping that CBS renews Old Christine and drops Gary – but I can also see Old Christine as a part of the ABC Wednesday comedy block, especially since it works so well with both Cougar Town and The Middle.
The best thing would be for CBS to renew it, because there is always that chance that ABC won’t be interested next season, but I think they will most likely be courting it again.
Master – HIMYM has already been renewed for another year I do believe. I feel CBS has a lot of faith in that show. Plus, nearing syndication makes the pot sweeter for that show.
Dan- I’m not worried about Accidentally on Purpose, seeing as how I have no doubt it will be canned and Rules will come back into Mondays. I’m just making a separate case for Wednesday nights. I could see them ditching Gary OVER Christine if it came to that. So the debate isn’t whether they’ll keep it; but the debate is if they HAD to choose to cancel one or both of those programs. In that case, I’m saying they wouldn’t get rid of both, and instead would ditch Gary.
Overall, it is safe to say that CBS is doing quite well with its scripted series.
If Three Rivers debuted that low, I agree, it is likely to disappear quickly. CBS has enough other shows lined up that might score higher ratings. It’ll stick around long enough for the next series to be ready. Maybe Flashpoint will replace it, but CBS also might hold it until spring in case one of the other series takes a nose dive.
@tiffany: series ratings usually go down after the initial premiere. If the show is already low rated, it is unlikely that its ratings are going to sky rocket.
I think Numb3rs should be orange, even if it is on Friday.
Mike G – I think Flashpoint would be good for sundays. The thing is CBS doesnt need any new series if they arent doing great. CBS can keep Cold Case and Flashpoint in the slot until May if they start with that combo in November. If that happens than all of the nights will be set, and The Good Wife would seem like the only drama possibly getting replaced. CBS has Miami Trauma and (If Flashpoint airs sundays) I dont see any other slot that Miami Trauma could go into except tuesdays at 10pm temporarily replacing The Good Wife.
nkinsey – Im not 100% that Mother is already renewed but you can bet that it will get a sixth (and likely final year). While Christine and Gary will last until May. I could actually see CBS letting Christine go (potentially to ABC) and them keeping Gary. Maybe CBS will try the Gary/Rules combo wednesdays for 2010-2011. I just think CBS should give Rules a good chance.
Aside from the numbers, it should be noted that Three Rivers was pretty bad.
I’m new here but how does Castle go from top of the list to not on the list?
Never mind I see that that list is just CBS.
NBC Football gets replaced by The Marriage Ref and Donald Trump’s Apprentice, I think Three Rivers can compete against NBC under those conditions. CBS likes Flashpoint because it’s cheap to produced (in Canada), Flashpoint was always going to be renewed, I heard that before the season even started. Three Rivers may have a chance when the schedule softens in January.
Natalie, Three Rivers isn’t going to make it to January.
noo HIMYM has not been renewed for another season. But im 100% sure that FOX will pick it up (its a fox show) if CBS axe it!
Three Rivers isnt going to make it to November, which lets CBS bring Flashpoint back early.
Please help me understand….Why is there such a rabidity to having Three Rivers replaced with Flashpoint?
Josh – CBS wont axe it. HIMYM is sure to last long enough to get a proper finale. Two and a Half Men, How I Met Your Mother and The Big Bang Theory are all safe to return in 2010-2011. Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, Rules of Engagement, and Accidentally on Purpose are less safe however and their fates are going to be hard to determine by May. Rules and Christine are veterans, and with 89 episodes and low ratings CBS could let Christine go. Rules seems like it has barely aired, so hopefully it gets another year.
Visan – Because Three Rivers premiered badly and we all know CBS is going to axe it. The thing is that CBS has 22 new Flashpoint so if Rivers is pulled it would make perfect sense and be better for CBS to return Flashpoint in November instead of airing repeats.
I hope they keep Accidentally On Purpose and air it after Old Christine. Cancel Gary Unmarried. CBS will definitely keep Old Christine, but if the do axe it, ABC will pick it up.
Cold Case barely got renewed so I imagine they are going to write a finale that wraps up any existing storylines. They have plenty of time to write it.
I know that CBS gave TAAH and The Big Bang Theory renewals of more than a season but I wonder why don’t do it for drama like FOX did with Bones.
Friday nights are safe–Numb3rs is the closest thing CBS has to a hit there on Friday night, and it will have good lead-ins with their supernatural block of GW/Medium.
As for Three Rivers, the summer promos never encouraged me to get interested in the show, much less watch it, and the local My Network TV affilliate has started showing The Deadliest Catch in syndication on Sundays opposite Three Rivers. Honestly, after the adrenaline of The Amazing Race, Deadliest Catch is the more logical show for me to watch afterwards.
Dan–Thanks!
Wow, Yeah I can see too, ABC will pick (either) “The New Adventures of Old Christine” (and “Gary Unmarried”). Christine/Middle would match perfectly.
I hope ABC will pick Three Rivers. I think on ABC it will get decent ratings especially as a lead in for Grey’s Anatomy. (I know I post it somewhere before)
Jon – Not sure about that. The three CSI’s and NCIS could get another season as early as now. However CBS never does that with dramas. Anyway Cold Case’s writers have to now that the show is going to end. Its not a bubble 50/50 like last season its a sure thing.
Bryan – ABC has mentioned in May 2008 and May 2009 that if CBS axed Old Christine, they would pick it up with 22 episodes. I think thats what made CBS give Christine a full season for both years following that.
Wonder if CBS is smart enough to bring Moonlight back after Three Rivers bombs. I don’t think Jason is doing anything right now. Come on CBS do the smart thing and bring our vampires back and get rid of the stuffed suits in the boardroom. Start with the CEO. I also went to CBS web page and sent them an email stating the same thought.
Moonlight is never coming back and after Jericho bombed, CBS is never going to bring back a show after fan campaigning, the show’s been axed for over a year.
There’s zero chance of that happening because Moonlight’s ratings started out OK but continued to drop throughout its run.
Swingtown and The Ex List sucked too but Flashpoint did better than Moonlight. Currently, CBS seems happy with Medium in Moonlight’s old timeslot. If Moonlight couldn’t increase its audience on Friday where expectations are low, it would likely do worse on another night with way more competition. Not to mention, Medium is produced by CBS, so it’s an in-house (and cheaper) show to make than Moonlight, which was produced by Warner Bros.
You see kids this is what happens when networks decide to use either AFTRA only, or non-union actors for television shows, they fail horrendously.
Sharon, that’s a cause and effect I’ve never heard before. Is there an easy to find list of which shows fall in that category, so that I could do an actual comparison?
I wonder how it got on the air? I watched the show and saw nothing that was special about it no hook to make you want to watch the show.
Unless it improves greatly in the next few weeks I say cancell it.
the story line was just lacking!
Such a rarity to see a CBS show in this decade to go down like that.
Three Rivers and Cold Case are definitely CBS’ weak spots. I think Numbers is in at least some danger simply since it is the weakest of their 3 Friday shows, guess it depends if CBS thinks they have something they can air there in place of it next season.
Accidentally on Purpose is hanging in there. Even though it definitely is the weak link on Mondays, it is right behind How I met your Mother on the index, so it’s not bleeding many of HIMYM’s viewers. If it continues to drop in the next couple weeks though then it won’t get a back 9 order.
Alfre Woodard and Alex O’Loughlin are SAG. Don’t know about the rest of the cast.
I’ve heard that reality shows can get away with hiring non-union, but is that legal for scripted dramas and comedies?
@Bill
Sharon, that’s a cause and effect I’ve never heard before. Is there an easy to find list of which shows fall in that category, so that I could do an actual comparison?
Your dear friend Nikki Finke had a list:
http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/sag-vs-aftra-in-television-show-by-show/
Nearly all the new shows are AFTRA….I’ll leave the guilds to argue about why.
Nope, not under the new rules of the SAG/AFTRA contract which allows producers to employ non-union talent if an “internet” or “on-line” production exceeds a certian level of cost, I beleive it’s over 15,000 a minute, so say a two-hour T.V. movie costs 2.8 million to make then they can employ non-union “talent” and they can get away with it because the internet part refers to any film of television show that can also be seen on the net. Last year when SAG threatened to go on strike the netowrks began employing AFTRA only and non-union talent, they were able to use non-union performers because SAG agreed to it in there contract. And some of the shows that have been using this system are the new programs that are now tanking.
Thank you for sharing that Holly.
AFTRA agreed to it first not SAG my appologies. A few SAG performers also worked off of there AFTRA cards because they didn’t want to be out of work. Hence, Courtney Cox on Cougar town and Christian Slater on the Forgotten.
R.G., “Such a rarity to see a CBS show in this decade to go down like that.”
Not really. I can only speak to the last 2 years, but what about Viva Laughlin and Ex-List. Both were gone by November as it is now assumed Three Rivers will be.
Sharon, I don’t think your cause and effect holds together (going by Nikki’s list at least)
I don’t see any real SAG vs. AFTRA trend here other than perhaps the built in bias that old shows tend to do better since the failed older shows are already off the list:
Above Average For Their Networks
Brothers & Sisters, SAG
Cougar Town (NEW), AFTRA
Flash Forward (NEW), AFTRA
Grey’s Anatomy, SAG
Modern Family (NEW), AFTRA
Private Practice, SAG
Accidentally on Purpose (NEW), AFTRA
The Big Bang Theory, SAG
Criminal Minds, SAG
CSI, SAG
CSI: Miami, SAG
CSI: NY, SAG
The Good Wife (NEW), AFTRA
How I Met Your Mother, SAG
The Mentalist, SAG
NCIS, SAG
NCIS: Los Angeles, (NEW) SAG
Two and a Half Men, (NEW) SAG
Community, (NEW) AFTRA
The Office, SAG
Law & Order: Special Victims Unit, SAG
Heroes, SAG
Bones, SAG
Glee (NEW), SAG
House, SAG
90210, AFTRA
Gossip Girl, SAG
One Tree Hill, SAG
Smallville, SAG
Supernatural, SAG
The Vampire Diaries (NEW), AFTRA
Below Average For Their Networks
Castle, SAG
Eastwick (NEW), SAG
The Forgotten (NEW), AFTRA
Hank (NEW), AFTRA
The Middle (NEW), SAG
New Adventures of Old Christine, SAG
Gary Unmarried, AFTRA
Cold Case, SAG
Ghost Whisperer, SAG
Medium, SAG
Numb3rs, SAG
Three Rivers, (NEW) AFTRA
Law & Order, SAG
Mercy, (NEW) AFTRA
Parks and Recreation, AFTRA
Trauma, (NEW)< AFTRA
Brothers (NEW), AFTRA
Dollhouse, SAG
Fringe, SAG
Lie to Me, SAG
‘Til Death, AFTRA
The Beautiful Life (NEW), AFTRA
Melrose Place (NEW), AFTRA
I was a huge Moonlight fan , but Three Rivers is one of the worst shows I’ve seen in years, and I have watched a lot of them.
When Moonlight was canceled I felt devastated, but honestly I cannot care less if Three Rivers dies or survives. That show is soporific.
I never believed that CBS really thought Moonlight was just about Alex , because if that would had been truth I am sure they would had found him a better show than this one.It is just terrible.
There are more AFTRA only shows failing then succeeding on that list.
Sharon, but if older shows tend to be SAG shows, that skews the list, since old shows (presumably SAG) that failed are *off* the list already.
Look at it this way, here are just the freshman shows on the list, and there is no clear SAG/AFTRA trend between them:
Above Average For Their Networks (7 AFTRA, 2 SAG)
Cougar Town (NEW), AFTRA
Flash Forward (NEW), AFTRA
Modern Family (NEW), AFTRA
Accidentally on Purpose (NEW), AFTRA
The Good Wife (NEW), AFTRA
NCIS: Los Angeles, (NEW) SAG
Community, (NEW) AFTRA
Glee (NEW), SAG
The Vampire Diaries (NEW), AFTRA
Below Average For Their Networks (8 AFTRA, 2 SAG)
Eastwick (NEW), SAG
The Forgotten (NEW), AFTRA
Hank (NEW), AFTRA
The Middle (NEW), SAG
Three Rivers, (NEW) AFTRA
Mercy, (NEW) AFTRA
Trauma, (NEW)< AFTRA
Brothers (NEW), AFTRA
The Beautiful Life (NEW), AFTRA
Melrose Place (NEW), AFTRA
But you are correct that the preponderance of new shows are AFTRA.
The older shows that have been on for several years and over time could’ve lost there audience for various reasons, not the new stuff that’s failing out of box, which is mostly AFTRA only. I would expect to see the netoworks start employing more non-inion talent in the future to save money. I would also expect to see the quality diminish as well unless SAG and AFTRA can reverse there contracts when they negotiate again.
Sharon, for new shows the SAG/AFTRA split on above/below average is effectively identical. Your theory of AFTRA = Fail doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.
As I said some of the shows got SAG talent to work off of there AFTRA cards, which is why name actors or primarilly film actors like Courtney Cox, Juliana Margeluise (sp), among others are on the shows, and there names value is likley what’s brought in viewers. Haven’t overall ratings been down for networks this year as well?
Granted it’s by a slim margarin but ratings for a number of those shows have continually been going though.
going down
Sharon, aggregate primetime ratings for broadcast networks have been down every year for the past 25, primarily because of shifts to advertising supported cable. The SAG/AFTRA spilt didn’t cause that, based on that list above I don’t think much of this year’s loss, if any, can be blamed on it either.
The only reason that there are any successfull AFTRA only shows this are because they’re using people with name value, people who are duel members that chose not to support there union and screw over working actors who don’t make over twenty-million dollars a year. I’m willing to bet that most of the AFTRA only shows that are on right now will be off the air by the end of this season. The few that are SAG will remain.
CSM – Cold Case is done after the season, Three Rivers is done in a couple of weeks. I think Numb3rs is relatively safe.
I guess Three Rivers is a goner , the premiere did terrible.I guess next season CBS will have space for new shows on Sunday.
Sorry Dan but Numb3rs is a goner unless it ticks up. If it remains in the 1.8-1.6 demo range or even goes down, which seems more possible, it’s toast. Regardless of how the shows before it do, an aging show like Numb3rs is just too costly for CBS to stay with – especially with numbers like those. CBS is doing too well to just keep shows around out of loyalty. After all they could save themselves a ton of money dumping it and are still likely to get just as good or only slighty lower demos with another fresher drama since there are no other scripted series in the timeslot and yet CBS would still remain competitive for the night. Add it all up and it’s a no-brainer that Numb3rs should be orange, not green. In fact, I think they’ll try out Flashpoint in the timeslot before long.
Bill do you think CBS’s happy with Medium’s performance at this point or were they expecting more?
So many here are convinced CBS will just let go of one returning series this season and “Cold Case” is it …
There is only so many time slots available and when a network is doing as well as CBS, they can cut their losses even easier than the other nets and cancel 2, maybe even 3 veterans this year and, after 6 seasons, an expensive series like “Numbers” would defintely be next on this list.
If Cbs has some promising new series they need to make room for, you can be sure “Numbers” will be wrapping it up at season’s end.
Well RW I expect Cbs to stay with Numbers until the end of the season. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a special episode of The Good Wife or Flashpoint in Numbers’ timeslot very soon. CBS will test out other shows at 10 to see if Numbers is tiring out and what they can put there in its place. Numbers is definitely in danger no matter how you look at it.
Bryan – I don’t see ABC picking up Three Rivers.
Red – I dont see any test episodes. If Numb3rs is in any danger it will run its course normally, and then be axed. Like Without a Trace.
Bryan – Why would they pickup Three Rivers?
There ratings are bad even by ABC standards. It’s produced by CBS Studios.
If ABC wanted another Medical Drama, they would get Shonda Rhimes to create another spin off from Grey’s Anatomy.
Maybe Katherine Heigl, Mcsteamy, there’s enough there to spin off and do better in the ratings than pickup Three Rivers poor ratings, poor reviews.
All “Cold Case” fans know the show will be on for just 1 more season. However, the timeslot does not help. When It was at 9 p.m. It got 12 million; now at 10 p.m is getting less….
oh gosh Cold Case/Three Rivers’s ratings are so terrible!
Eleventh Hour did better last season.
So cold case and three rivers are going to be canceled
Is Sharon that loony film editor Joe B***n from Finke’s site? The one who always goes on and on about how AFTRA shows are scab projects that are prone to cause global annihilation because they’re shot on evil digital video? Mmm, yes, I’m sure SAG-based “Eastwick” and “Dollhouse” will remain next season while AFTRA-based “Modern Family” and “The Vampire Diaries” won’t.
And on topic, “Numb3rs” might be done. Sadly, as I think it’s probably CBS’ best procedural. Because of the budget. Granted, it was reduced considerably to get this season, but I admittedly wasn’t expecting to hear last spring that CBS was contemplating swinging the axe on it. Heck, who knows — maybe they’ll just 86 the entire lineup at once to save money, the same way they did with Saturday in 2004. What’s 3 more hours of Crime Time encores?
Wait, now we’re blaming which UNION produces a show for the fact it’s failing? Not bad acting, writing by commitee, bad-premise-but-we-have-a-big-star-in-the-role-so-we-assume-the-audience-will-watch-anyway because-we-think-you’re-stupid-and-we’re-not-hiding-it, bad directing, crappy time slot, lousy promotion? REALLY???
Meli, “we” are doing so such thing. “Sharon” is.
Point taken Bill.
The idea that a production is either SAG or AFTRA and that affects whether a show gets cancelled is about as plausible as the full moon telling you which TV show to watch. There are good actors, directors, writers, etc. in SAG and AFTRA both, as well as some really bad ones. And as anyone who is a fan of ‘Arrested Development’ can tell you, you can lead the public to a good show but you can’t make them watch it.
Good Wife and whatever:LA got picked up for a full season.
Why are Two and a half men and The big bang theory even on that list? They are already renewed for another season.
I guess CBS this year won’t have to cancel good ratings shows as they did last season with W. a Trace to make space for new shows.
With Three Rivers and Cold Case cancelations they have spots for their new shows.
I just hope Cold Case lasts long enough for 22-23 episodes. This is most likely the last season but seven years is nothing to sneeze at. And I’m sorry, I don’t know how WAT got the ratings they did in the last year or so unless they were people that liked soap operas at night.
Did Gary Unmarried get a full season pickup or just a half season pickup?
I still miss Moonlight. Give Three Rivers a chance! The critics were planning the funeral even before the first episode aired!! I watched the first show, I liked it. Alex O’loughlin is a very talented actor and deserves all the best. What type of ratings do you expect opposite football anyway????????????????????????????
Bill Gorman? how does Renew/Cancel thread work? just wondering cause this really helps.
As for CBS.I wouldn`t be surprised if Cold Case ends this season.CBS need a new Sunday and this season`s isn`t very good.Three Rivers is a let down and Cold Case & Amazing Race is ageing.I say dump Cold Case and add maybe a new reality or fresh drama to capture ratings.
Also ditch The Wednesday Comedies and Change Friday`s lineup a bit.
If CBS wants their Sunday night lineup to succeed they need to do something very different. Football and golf on CBS continually push the start times back so that the show airing at 10 often doesn’t start until 10:30 or 11:00, which means you lose vierwers because kids have to go to school on Mondays and adults have to go to work. That’s way too late for many people, and no, not everyone owns a DVR.
My proposal is that CBS only plan for three hours of new primetime programming on Sunday night (7-10 PM) instead of the current four (7-11 PM). That means if football or golf run long, you have 60 Minutes, Amazing Race, whatever show replaces Three Rivers (probably Cold Case), and then you might put a CSI rerun on or something. That way the current shows have a better chance of doing well in ratings, and it doesn’t unfairly punish the show that gets the 10 PM Sunday slot.