Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 11, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Hank | 0.64 |
| the forgotten | 0.75 |
| Castle (P) | 0.77 |
| The Middle | 0.81 |
| Eastwick | 0.82 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) | 1.06 |
| FlashForward (P) | 1.23 |
| Cougar Town (P) | 1.31 |
| Modern Family | 1.31 |
| Private Practice (P) | 1.41 |
| Desperate Housewives (P) | 1.64 |
| Grey’s Anatomy (P) | 2.09 |
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While I don’t think it’s much for Castle fans to cheer about, the forgotten is definitely more likely to be canceled than their favorite show. Not only has its Index fallen below Castle’s, but its ratings are still trending down and even if they stabilize now its Index will continue falling as its average gets pulled down. Any bets on whether Christian Slater will be on a CBS show next season after My Own Worst Enemy on NBC and now the forgotten?
And while Eastwick’s Index is still above Castle’s, its ratings are trending down sharply, and I’d put its chances of being canceled at nearly as high as the forgotten’s.
Among ABC’s comedies, Hank is looking even shakier than it was last week, it’s certain to be canceled before the end of the season. And while The Middle has received an order for a full season from ABC, I’m not sure I’d make any plans to watch it next season just yet.
In response to some comments about color blindness and problems with the colors in the list, the shows in red (the greatest danger) are now also bolded. Does that help?
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I do wonder if the forgotten would be doing any better with the original pilot cast – maybe Slater is just doomed?
As far as Castle goes I think it plays out its order (which I believe was short) and is off the schedule by mid season. If memory serves ABC has a lot of depth in their mid season replacements.
Yay for production indication.
I still think Castle is at least 50/50 for a backorder. Deep End doesn’t have enough episodes to fill a 10pm slot from Feb. on, Copper is too cheap, and Wife Swap is a last resort.
WOW ABC has a real hard time getting crime dramas
like i said, The forgotten is already FORGOTTEN!
i think abc needs a new greys anatomy spin off!!!
its the only show that actually works for 10pm slot!!!
hope eastwick wont get cancelled untill its 13th episode at least!!
Maybe the dopey small lettering got them.
If it looses to Jay again tonight I think the headline tomorrow will be that its canceled.
private practice only works on thursdays it flopped on wednesdays last season. abc needs to concentrate on growing an audience for castle and using primetime and 20/20 on tues and weds as they are cheaper and usually quite solid in ratings
i really wanna know how Bill does this?hope he sees this plea and responces.Hank maybe done and ABC`s crime shows are surpringsly unpopular.Whatever is in Orange by May 2010i could see being in Mid-Season Replacement in 2011.
Connor, the methods for calculating the Index are explained in the post, my guesses for the colors are usually explained in the text.
@Hogwash – ABC has nothing else to air. Well, I suppose they could whip up some Primetime Mysteries specials to air during sweeps – but how do they share them between Eastwick & The Forgotten’s slots.
Forgotten/Hank/Eastwick will probably all be “soft” cancellations – no backorder, and no formal mention until they are announced dead in May.
The forgotten, Eastwick and Hank will all be gone by January. Everything in green already has a full year, as well as The Middle and I strongly believe Castle will get one too.
Eastwick deserves more of a chance to find an audience. The show is seriously not bad. It also had some good pretty good DVR #s so I think it has a chance. The Forgotten will go nowhere as its just another crime drama. Eastwick is a brand new show. I really hope ABC gives it more of a chance. I doubt Happy Town or The Deep End will do any better.
Hope The Middle will get the second season!
i love eastwick i hope it doesnt get cancelled.
Castle will jump The Middle and Eastwick in the coming weeks, the only reason they’re both ahead now is they had larger premieres but have since started falling.
Christian Slater can be on the Criminal Minds spinoff next season. If that show is canceled within the first year, we’ll all know Slater is cursed.
Is Christian Slater the new Ted McGinley?
Oh man they should seriously considering moving Eastwick behind Desperate Housewives, it would do much better, Brothers and Sisters can move, that’s had a chance to get an audience, I definetly don’t want to see Eastwick cancelled.
I finally got around to watching “Modern Family” and I like it quite a bit. I see it sticking around for at least four seasons.
the forgotten is just bad. My wife loves Christian Slater, so we’ll watch anything he’s in, but the forgotten is way worse than My Own Worst Enemy. At least that show was entertaining (mostly thanks to him).
People sure throw around words like “curse” a lot for a site dedicated to cold hard numbers.
The Forgotten is a procedural that’s not breaking any new ground and is trying its luck down a well beaten path. The police procedural is a tired formula that still shows signs of life, but if you’re new, Slater’s tarnished reputation is certainly not going to be enough to pull you through.
Someday Christian Slater will find his Jefferson Darcy.
I like the idea of giving the female-centric Eastwick a slot after Desperate Housewives–even if for a few weeks. Brothers and Sisters has been floundering creatively and ratings-wise anyway.
Why is everyone only picking on Slater? Lindsay Price was in Lipstick Jungle,it flopped, and now she’s in Eastwick and it’s flopping.
I love crime shows but the Forgotten is really lame. I would say it deserves to be canceled, and Eastwick can go too.
We’re still jealous all the girls liked Christian Slater back in the day.
Also, he tried to blow up Westerburg High.
I really think they should move Eastwick after Housewives. Its a good show with some great performances on it. It really does deserve a shot
Michael, I will pick on Lindsay Price next week!
C’mon everybody, the Slater reference was in jest!
A Heathers reference!
You know, if you REALLY want to find out if Mr. Slater is cursed, add him to the cast of NCIS. If THAT get canceled next year, then we’ll know it’s Slater.
Can someone please talk a little more about the P, “Produced by the network’s production company?” I’m curious to know more about that but I find myself not fully understanding what it means. If not, I understand. If so, thank you for your time.
Also, Romo? You rock with that comment. For true.
MichyGeary,, for example, Castle is produced by ABC Studios, and the forgotten is produced by Warner Brothers.
So Disney (the owner of ABC Television Network and ABC Studios) gets full benefit of anything associated with Castle, TV advertising, DVD sales, international licensing, etc. While for the forgotten Warner Brothers keeps DVD sales revenues, international licensing, etc.
Because of this, in a case where other factors are similar, it’s reasonable to guess that Castle is advantaged vs. the forgotten in a renew / cancel decision, but the fact that a corporate sibling produces a show is unlikely to save a complete ratings dog.
MichyGeary, each network is associated with a studio that is owned by the same parent company. If a show on a network is produced by that network’s studio, any other revenue sources from that show will still go to the network’s parent company. For example, NBC’s studio produces The Office, so any DVD revenue and syndication sales money still goes to NBCU. On the other hand, House is also produced by NBCU, but it is on Fox, so any DVD/syndication money goes to NBCU, not Fox.
For shows that perform well, this is a moot point. But if a network has two shows that are on the bubble, they may be more likely to renew one of their own shows rather than one that is not in-house, because there is a chance that it will still make money for them outside of primetime.
Edit: Bill beat me. But I forgot to add that there was some speculation last May that networks were looking to bring in more new shows that were produced by other studios because there’s less cost to them if the series fail.
Thanks so much Bill and Julia. That definitely clears that up.
Hey, I gave it a shot because Christian Slater was in it – I left because I thought it was a cooky format.
There is nothing wrong with Christian Slater except perhaps his ability to chose projects
Wasn’t The Middle given a full season in yesterday’s big ABC renewal statement, along with Flashforward, Modern Family and Cougar Town?
Yes it was Jeff, the orange means that the show could be whats considered “on the bubble” to be renewed for the 2010-2011 season.
Has it been stated what day/time Lost will return to in the spring? With all the bad ratings at 10 on Tuesday and Wednesday I would think they would put it in one of those slots.
Jared, ABC has not put out a midseason schedule, even an early guess at one. I would guess Tuesday or Wednesday at 10 as well.
I’m predicting Lost returns to the same slot it was last year – Wednesday at 9PM providing a lead out and lead in for Happy Town and FlashForward. God knows which way round though. I’d then assume that the comedy block goes to Tuesday although unless they run three hours of sitcoms they’re never going to fit all their shows onto the schedule so I’d wave goodbye to The Middle as well as Hank unless the episode orders for Scrubs or Better of Ted were short.
Alex, episode orders for Scrubs and Better Off Ted are short. There’s no way they change Wednesday at 9 as long as it continues to perform. I also don’t see them moving FlashForward. When you are in as precarious a position as ABC is, you don’t mess with the few things that are actually showing promise. (Of course, if FlashFoward continues to drop rather than stabilize, that’s another story.)
I agree with the logic Julia but I don’t think ABC is going to be able to resist pairing FlashForward with Lost, especially not after all of the ‘next Lost’ promotion and that either means putting Lost on Tuesday or changing the comedy block. Lost will do better than the comedy block, especially against an Idol assisted Glee so Lost gets the Wednesday slot and the cheaper comedies go up against Idol, NCIS and Biggest Loser on Tuesday
Did anybody else see Christian Slater singing Zippity-Doo-Dah on the Bonnie Hunt show this afternoon?
Cuz – yeah . . . . .
Alex, I think ABC knows that Lost’s fans will watch the final season wherever they put it. Tuesdays at 9 Following V looks like the most likely spot for it to me.
Not to mention the Wednesday Comedy Block at 9 is doing better than anyone would have predicted when it was announced. I don’t see ABC messing with it. It’s working and they’d be crazy to shuffle it around.
Alex, the thing is, the execs at ABC do have some ability to look at past history and learn from it. Whether there is proof of this ability or not, the ability exists! They took Lost on Mars that wasn’t doing great, but was doing okay after Grey’s and moved it behind Lost where it immediately sunk to horrible levels. There hasn’t been a single scripted show that followed Lost that has not been canceled. I think ABC is too invested in FlashForward to risk it behind Lost.
Tommy I don’t doubt that Lost fans will follow the show to where ever ABC puts it mid season but I think it would do better than the comedy block at 9 when Idol returns and gives a boost to Human Target and then especially Glee. I think potentially more damage is done to the new comedy block by keeping it on Wednesday than moving it to Tuesday.
And Julia I’d suggest that if ABC were learning from their past mistakes they’d realise every procedural they’ve tried to launch over the past couple of years has died a painful death and stop picking them up but they haven’t and won’t. Its not impossible that they’ll put Lost at 10PM I just don’t think they will and I think they’ll once again try to use it as a lead-in for something, with FlashForward and Happy Town being the most obvious choices.
Alex, If Idol’s results show is going to hurt the Comedy Block imagine what Idols Tuesday performance show would do to it.
ABC has a lot of midesason series lined up so they most definitely don’t *need* Castle, much less Eastwick or the forgotten.
But the Wednesday comedy block is probably better off against the Idol results show or Human Target rather than the Idol performance show.
I’m guessing ABC’s Tuesdays will be Dancing with the Stars results at 8:00, and then Lost and V, or V and Lost, depending on what they want to do. Lost is a very powerful 9:00 performer – should be even moreso since it’s the last eason this year – and I could see them failing to learn their lesson from the post-Lost slot being a death slot. Then again, if the first four episodes of V do poorly, they’ll probably use the post-Lost slot to burn off the other 9.
The Wednesday comedy block will get some rejiggering done to it. Modern Family and Cougar Town are the strong performers, and I’m not sure if they’ll be willing to break those up. I could see them slotting The Middle after Modern Family (I really am surprised The Middle already got a full pickup) and then pairing Cougar Town with Scrubs.
Hank will be dust, and that kind of leaves Better Off Ted as the odd one out, because I don’t see them expanding past two hours. With how poorly Ted did it could possibly be canned before premiering, like Southland, or it could be given a death slot. Or if The Middle doesn’t pick up its socks, it oculd replace The Middle in like April or something.
Midseason Thursdays and Sundays should be unchanged from now, and Mondays and Wednesdays at 10 will go to The Deep End and Happy Town. So I don’t even see any room realy for Castle, Eastwick, or the forgotten.
I wish The Forgotten was doing better. I’m really starting to like it.
I’m hoping ABC has more faith in Castle than they do in Happy Town or The Deep End. I hope V bombs too. Gads, I hated that show the last time. I don’t think it’ll be on the air long enough before ABC makes a decision on Castle though.
It doesn’t mean everything but Castle should surely move ahead of The Middle and Eastwick in the next week or two at least.
so is brothers and sisters out of the woods?
brandon, a lot can change between now and May, but B&S is looking good now.
Alright, Maybe I just don’t see it or something, but could someone please explain to me why castle looks to be in so much danger??
The show has held pretty strong in the ratings so far this season it seems. It has beat out Leno every week by far, putting it in second place, behind CSI, which ABC won’t be able to beat no matter what they put in the slot. It’s got the same rating/share as Heroes, which is in no danger of being canceled, AND has more viewers then it.
Plus, the promo book they’ve put out which ties into the show is number EIGHT on amazon’s best sellers.
So what am I missing? The show can’t have much of a budget, and it seems fairly well liked (I know I never miss an episode!). why is it in such danger of being canceled?
Wow. ABC is a failure in the 10:00 timeslot overall.
Sunday: Brother’s and Sisters does okay, but it doesn’t keep much of Desperate Housewives’ 18-49.
Monday: I would consider Castle a ratings failure, especially since it’s lead in is Dancing with the Stars.
Tuesday: The Forgotten is a big ratings bomb. Especially it is the lead out of DANCING WITH THE STARS, which gets pretty good ratings.
Wednesday: It is safe to say Eastwick is as big of a failure as The Forgotten and Castle, as it BARELY beats Leno in both 18-49 and viewers.
Thursday: Private Practice is like Brothers & Sisters, it doesn’t have BAD ratings, but it not nearly as big as it’s lead in, Grey’s Anatomy.
Friday: 20/20 is having record low ratings this season, isn’t it?
Saturday: Well, everything on Saturday is crap.
Nick, DWTS results (Tuesday) does not get good ratings. But The Forgotten’s ratings are not excusable anyway.
10 pm is always going to be lower rated than 9 pm, overall. B&S and PP are doing quite well for ABC, and I’m sure they are happy with them, no matter what their retention is.
To be honest I’m less worried about Idol hitting the comedy block than the shows that follow it and Past Life (which last I checked was schedule to follow the Tuesday Idol) looks pretty awful. Plus I’d argue that the sitcoms can afford to take the Idol hit but that the dramas can’t.
I’d also say that since ABC is already looking to throw Scrubs and Ted under the Idol Tuesday bus they may as well keep all the comedies together. Can they really support two different comedy blocks right now?
Airing LOST at 10 could work just to put some life at that hour, I remember they done it before and it beat CSI NY in the demo.
the forgotten was a show with very low buzz even before it started so I’m not really surprised the show is tanking especially how weak Tuesdays for ABC.
I think Castle will stay for awhile, maybe ABC will let the show grow, they should do some stunt casting to get more 18-49 eyeballs to watch it. And if they pick up a back nine they should keep the show on its Monday time slot for the whole season. The Bachelor should be aired on Tuesday 10pm to strengthen that night.
Yeah I agree Eastwick should have been a post-DH show. I like B&S but I think ABC should try to test the show if it could perform on another day but I do get ABC if they don’t want to separate B&S and DH since it could mess up the ratings for their relatively stable show B&S.
Forg – I agree, ABC will let Castle grow (likely due to lack of successful new dramas this year). Also I could see ABC airing Lost at 10pm, should they keep the comedy block. Its the final season, so ABC could stick the series anywhere. And again if Brothers & Sisters didnt exist then Eastwick could easily move to Sundays at 10 to success (like how Private Practice moved to 10pm to ride the success of Grey’s Anatomy). Well know in about a month or two about ABC’s midseason schedule but I doubt Hank, the Forgotten, and Eastwick will be on it.
Go Castle! Come on, get to orange! Eastwick needs to stop falling and start rising, and the Middle needs to do better.
Hank…well I hope they replace it in January with Better Off Ted.
Hmm this is interesting.
But I’m more interested to see how my favorite show, Ugly Betty, will do when it premieres this week!!! Hopefully it fits well on Friday nights..you never know, it could be a good thing.
Eastwick, the forgotten and Hank are pretty dead already but…
ABC could move Eastwick and the forgotten to Friday or Saturday and air the remaining episodes.
I could Castle being move on a Friday. The Middle will get a Better Off Ted treatment.
I love this site because it allows me to say “Honey don’t get too attached to Eastwick” to my wife and for me to enjoy Better Off Ted until they inevitably cancel it. You guys just give the facts instead of false hopes so people can enjoy the shows while they last. As much as I hated seeing Pushing Daisies go I just could see the rating on the wall. Why other peple on here can’t undestand that (most of all Dollhouse fans) I can’t understand.
Hmmm – I wonder if Castle could have a mystery involving “the intersect”…would that help…
(maybe TVBTN, not Castle
)
Nick: no soup for you, for suggesting that college football is crap (which is what ABC has on Saturday nights now
I should also point out that I don’t think the ABC comedy block is going to maintain its current numbers. I suspect The Middle will follow the same path as Hank, albeit at a slightly slower rate. Cougar Town looks to be slipping and probably won’t be above a 3.0 by mid season. Modern Family might just hold on but one sort of performing show does not a good block make.
Darm, I had “forgotten” that show ever existed. Gee, thanks for reminding me.
I really like “the forgotten” ~ it’s unfortunate that the ratings have been so poor, but I’m not a Nielsen.
It looks like they will be replacing it with “V” on November 3rd, according to the promo that aired last night.
Since people like charts how about expanding the chart to show trends in the index week to week?
“Eastwick” provided the most clear-cut viewer rejection of any new show this fall. So, that’s the first one to go. (Not counting “Shark Tank,” which leaves us next week… and which seems to be more “American Inventor” than “Dragon’s Den”). I don’t enjoy “The Forgotten” at all, but it seems to have leveled off, and I believe that makes it a slight improvement over all the scripted shows ABC had in that hour last season. So, they should certainly stick with it until “The Good Wife” goes into repeats and see if they can pick up some new eyeballs. I’m sure there are some procedural fans who enjoy the “NCIS” shows and are ready to bail on the thing that airs afterwards.
“Hank,” I think should be moved. They put it in “Back to You’s” old home. They should try it for a few weeks in “Frasier’s” old home before throwing in the towel. I always read these stupid posts from stupid kids who hate sitcoms with laugh tracks. Or stupid posts from stupid kids who hate single-cam sitcoms, because they don’t know when to laugh. Well, “Hank” airs directly opposite “Old Christine” — not that anybody watches it but is the same kind of show. ABC has said they want to keep separate their domestic and their workplace sitcoms, but I can’t say I agree. I think most everybody among us has a home life and a work life and can relate to both. But there are probably those of us who can only relate to the theater. Or those of us who can only relate to the cinema. You see what I’m saying? What they need to do is keep their single-camera and their multi-camera sitcoms separate.
lunakasha, V is airing at 8, not 10.
@Julia:
Thanks~ I didn’t know that. I just assumed that “V” would be replacing “the forgotten” at 10PM. Maybe there is still a tiny shred of hope for this show, but I’m not very optimistic. As long as “Castle” stays for awhile, I’ll be happy.
I don’t understand the ratings and the rationale for deciding what stays and what goes. This site says Heroes is very likely to be renewed but it only has 5.5 million viewers while Castle is likely to go with 10 millions viewers. Lie to Me is said to be a sure renewal when it has only 7 million viewers but Trauma is all but canceled and it has the same number of viewers as Heroes. On the same network on the same night. I just don’t get it.
Justin, viewers DO NOT MATTER. Only the demo matters.
You know, I feel like there should be a captcha sort of thing to ensure that commenters understand the whole viewers vs demo thing. Like, you are asked “What is the only part of the audience that matters to renewal?” and if the commenter doesn’t enter 18-49 demo, they have to read an explanation of how ratings work before commenting. That would be cool.
I know that the purpose of this site is to analyze the 18-49 numbers, whereas most other TV-centric sites look at overall ratings, but it amazes me the amount of doom and gloom prognosticated upon “Castle” within these digital halls.
Every other site from TV Guide (both mag and web) to EW to Zap2It, pretty much think that the overall numbers for “Castle” (10 million and climbing) and the fact that it holds its own in the overall Tuesday ratings as an alternative to “CSI: Miami” gives ABC a solid, if not breakout hit.
Yes the 18-49 is a bit softer than most fans of the show would like, but according to this site, Castle was a goner last season too…ALL of network television can’t pander to the 18-49 demo at all times, no matter how sweet the demo is for advertisers…solid overall ratings get the job done as well, and when a show’s overall numbers are holding up well against a top ten show, as Castle’s ratings are against Caruso Scene Improvisation; ABC can’t be too unhappy with it. I’m sure they make a tidy sum off of ad spots for “Castle”, more than enough to keep the show going so long as its overall ratings stay strong.
I like the Forgotten. Too bad they dont do well in the ratings, hopefully ABC is giving them a chance to grow. The cases each week are getting better.
DC says:
“Every other site from TV Guide (both mag and web) to EW to Zap2It, pretty much think that the overall numbers for “Castle” (10 million and climbing) and the fact that it holds its own in the overall Tuesday ratings as an alternative to “CSI: Miami” gives ABC a solid, if not breakout hit.
Yes the 18-49 is a bit softer than most fans of the show would like, but according to this site, Castle was a goner last season too…ALL of network television can’t pander to the 18-49 demo at all times, no matter how sweet the demo is for advertisers…solid overall ratings get the job done as well…”
I really hope you’re right, DC. “Castle” is one of my favorite shows, and it seems to have a solid fanbase, despite the relatively “soft” demo numbers. I like that it is a crime/mystery drama with great characters and plenty of humor.
I also hope that ABC will give “the forgotten” a few more weeks, if not a full season, before deciding its fate.
An interesting article that some of you may appreciate.
http://www.upi.com/Entertainment_News/2009/01/11/TVs-18-49-demographic-losing-relevance/UPI-71791231709689/
DC, note that CBS is prominently featured in that 9 month old article. It is in their business interest to try and convince advertisers to not focus so much on the 18-49 age group. So far, they have had limited success
I actually like Slater’s acting but this show sucks. It is unrealistic, not funny or suspenseful or anything. CSI, the Mentalist, Monk, and Psych are better by an order of magnitude.
Hi Bill,
By citing that article, I wasn’t trying to undermine the expertise or the purpose of this site, you guys do a fine job and I am certainly no statistician. I was just trying to convey that there are some changing attitudes out there regarding the importance of the 18-49 demo and the other key demos that advertisers can (and do) take advantage of and networks do schedule shows for.
18-49 is certainly important, as people in that demo are most apt to try new things…and in the spirit of full disclosure I’ll be part of that demo for another twenty years. All I’m pointing out is that there is a growing trend for media outlets to start courting “other” demos outside of the coveted 18-49.
Sure, CBS was quoted in the article because they trend older and made for a willing participant from which to get a quote, but the actual statement of 18-49 importance came from Magna media firm. Might I also add that a 9 month old article on a demo that is of continuing relevance and that has supposedly shown little change over those last nine months is hardly out of date. Lastly, I believe CBS was tracking at #2 in the 18-49 demo when that article came out, so it’s not as if they were in the basement at the time.
There are plenty of other articles and evidence out there that other demos, such as 25-54 are starting to become increasingly important (and not just among cable news channels), especially since age 50 is the current average among television viewers.
So yeah, of course the 18-49 demo is still the most important one…but it is not the ONLY one that can be properly monetized…and although I’m not a television programmer, I too work in the media, so I have some familiarity on the subject.
My objection comes when the gong is prematurely banged on a show like “Castle” which seems to be unanimously considered as a solid and growing (albeit deliberately paced) performer for ABC by most TV-enthusiast and industry sites (aside from this one, because of the hard focus on the 18-49 metric).
That being stated, I think that sounding the death knell this early in the season is a little shortsighted, especially if “Castle” continues the show’s up-trend in overall ratings and I just wanted to submit that info for the consideration of the good folk (and “Castle” fans) posting on the site.
While I very much like “Castle” as a great bit of fun “Moonlighting-style” escapism, I agree that the show surely could get canned due to the 18-49 performance, especially if the overall ratings start sliding too, but I’m thinking it is a little early to call TOD.
Thanks and keep up the good work.
-DC
DC make no mistake, many cable networks target demographic groups other than adults 18-49 as well. You’re correct about 25-54 being the cable news target. And smaller cable networks often target even more specific groups, children 2-11, women 12-24.
The overall point being that groups of demographic eyeballs are what advertisers (and by extension TV networks) are looking for. General viewership doesn’t make anybody any money unless it contains enough of the right kind of viewers.
True enough Bill. I’m just pointing out that there are demos other than the 18-49 “premium” demo that can be (and are being) monetized by advertisers and major networks (not just niche cable networks). With the average age of the television viewer tracking upward and those over 50 having more disposable income, there are shows on major network schedules that appeal to an older demo and that lure advertisers who will pay good money to reach that demo. “Castle” is just one example where I think that the 18-49 numbers may or may not mean cancellation, after all, your site marked it for cancellation last year and it was renewed…QED.
Critics like Matt Roush and other TV pundits seem to agree that “Castle” isn’t in the danger zone and overall performs solidly for ABC. Perhaps it is just an exception to the rule, or perhaps we won’t see it come Fall 2010. Either way, it makes for interesting debate.
Hey guys, one quick question. What does the (S) and the (P) mean, in the show list? Thanks.
Brothers & Sisters is safe only for DH!!!
Every show after DH will have a rising of audience!
i don’t undestand… why The Middle in orange and Eastwick in red?