Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 11, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F), (P) | 0.54 |
| Three Rivers (P) | 0.58 |
| Medium (F), (P) | 0.65 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.65 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.67 |
| Cold Case (P) | 0.67 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.72 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (P) | 0.99 |
| The Good Wife (P) | 0.99 |
| CSI:NY (P) | 1.10 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.14 |
| The Mentalist | 1.15 |
| CSI (P) | 1.26 |
| Criminal Minds (P) | 1.27 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles (P) | 1.30 |
| CSI: Miami (P) | 1.32 |
| Two And A Half Men | 1.47 |
| NCIS (P) | 1.49 |
| Big Bang Theory (P) | 1.58 |
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As bad as the ratings were for the Three Rivers premiere, its second week was even worse falling to just a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating. With CBS’ recent history of axing its worst performing new drama before the November sweeps, the show’s demise may be announced at any moment.
Cold Case keeps getting colder and is still in significant danger of being canceled before at the end of the season. New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried are stably low, but what’s new? If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be fine for another renewal.
While I don’t think Numb3rs is in extreme danger, it’s opened enough of a gap between its ratings and those of Medium and Ghost Whisperer to be in some danger. Last season Numb3rs was renewed with a gap between its Index and that of Ghost Whisperer of 0.10. At that gap or less, I figure the show is safe, above that gap there’s a risk it gets canceled.
In response to some comments about color blindness and problems with the colors in the list, the shows in red (the greatest danger) are now also bolded. Does that help?
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Three Rivers had a 1.6? Travis listed it as a 1.7.
And he was correct, I used 1.7 in the Index, the 1.6 in the copy was a typo. Thanks for the catch, fixed.
I doubt the .1 difference will sway CBS either way when it comes to canceling The Rivers.
CSI: Three Rivers
Taking Leno’s advice…
Wow, look at BBT. The highest rated show on the network, well deserved!
I have to say, as a TV writer who checks all these addictive TV-info websites regularly (Variety, THR, DHD), this is the best of them by far. The most clear information with smart analysis and no corporate agendas looming over everything. Who are you people? I just stumbled onto the website off of Google recently, and now I love it. Smart commenters, too. This is my new web homepage.
Three Rivers already looks like CSI:Miami in the way that it’s shot and edited, as well as how the set looks (with all the high-tech doodads).
Maybe it’ll be more successful if Alex O’Loughlin invests in a pair of sunglasses and learns to strike stiff poses while uttering lame one-liners.
Despite Cold Case’s average, I still think it’ll last the rest of the season if only because of its veteran status. After that, it’ll be gone Without a Trace….
CBS should consiter moving Numb3rs to Sundays at 8 or 10pm and see how it does there,and move Cold Case to Fridays at 10pm – the swap might be a better fit.
Hey Bill, sorry to be a goose-stepping punk-ass Grammar Nazi from Hell again, but every time you update this, you misspell “Fridays” in the (F) factor explanation. It should be “Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with…” and NOT “Friday’s” in your template.
Apostrophes über alles! Heh heh. Oh and as always, thanks for the cool info.
er,that should be Sundays 9 or 10pm
Three Rivers is doomed but I think its worth mentioning that it could be getting an ‘acceptable’ mid-high 2 and still be doomed, sure it would make it through to mid season before getting yanked in favour of Miama Trauma (or whatever the other CBS medical show is) but the CBS schedule is packed so tight that any show, particularly new shows are pretty much dead in the water if they can’t hit a 3+, which is why I’m amazed they ordered more eps of Good Wife this early.
The one exception to that is of course the second comedy block which continues to roll on. I still think if CBS is serious about that block they have to move to one of the established Monday shows (Mother, Big Bang or Men with Mother being the most likely option) to Wednesday. It should be faily crystal clear that Gary and Christine isn’t working.
Ike, I am not immune to the goose-step at times. And copy and paste would have kept the error forever. I will stop it now!
Can anyone think of a show in its fourth season or later that was yanked in the middle of its run? I can’t- Cold Case is safe.
@Michael, If you read the text you will see that this index isn’t predicting whether a show will be canceled immediately, it’s predicting whether it will get a renewal and come back next fall.
Sorry,Holly, I should have been a bit more clear- I mean that it’s safe until the end of its run this season.My Bad.Although, is there a veteran show I’m not thinking of that was yanked in the middle of its run?
Michael, very little chance Cold Case goes away prior to May. It’s just not coming back next fall. As Holly pointed out, this post predicts renewal for *next* season.
Although the copy about Three Rivers does note its likely to get pulled at any moment, I don’t think that’s likely for any other CBS show.
Alex I think that’s a good point about the Wednesday comedy block. I doubt CBS would be willing to take the risk of moving Men, or TBBT to Wednesday at 8. Also it would probably really hurt HIMYM to get moved to Wednesdays. I do think RoE could do well on Wednesday’s that show seems to pull decent ratings wherever CBS puts it. I honestly don’t know why RoE isn’t a Fall Show, it outperforms the new sitcoms that CBS keeps putting out there on Mondays (Worst Week, AoP, etc….)
Trauma, Mercy, Three Rivers…
All ER clones to an extent, and no one’s watching.
I’m going to tick off fans of said shows, but I gotta be honest, I’m glad all 3 clones are tanking. That’s the thing about broadcast that’s really ticking me off these days: the number of copy cat or spin off shows. CSI drives me up the wall with 3 shows, then there’s NCIS. At least the ER clones are tanking.
Maybe, just maybe, the nets may get it into their head to, I don’t know, come up with an original idea for a show?
Worth noting that on the east coast Cold Case started airing 40 minutes late. It’s not even properly tracked this week. Love it or hate it, Cold Cases true performance can’t be gauged until after football season.
There used to be a show on Friday’s called CSI and no one was watching it, they moved it to Thursday’s after there smash hit show Survivor and bang…two spinoff’s. Try moving some of these shows for a couple of times and my bet is the rating will zoom up…just a thought
I don’t think Cold Case fans have anything to worry about until May. I would advise it’s writers to end this season as a series finale with enough wiggle room to come back for another season. Give the fans of the show a satisfactory ending. Depending on what they replace 3 Rivers with Cold Case may go up with a better lead in. How much I don’t know, but it’s always possible to be enough for a renewal.
Buzz – CBS has a very stable lineup so I don’t see them making a lot of schedule changes to try and help the few shows that are struggling.
Cold Case started at 11 pm! How can we expect good ratings at 11 pm :/
Do 2 sitcoms GARY and CHRISTINE cost less to make than a 1 hour drama show?
Jericho was the last show to air 8pm Wed.
CHAD, CSI: Three Rivers.
Love it, hope cbs learns there lesson for mid-season and renames CSI Miami Trauma.
vsaint, yes, multi-cam shows cost less per minute than single-cam shows (which dramas always are). But I doubt it’s enough less per minute to make up for how poorly CBS is doing Wednesday at 8.
Three Rivers is dead.Prepare Miami Trauma for its replacement.Cold Case better get a finale prepared and The Comedies And Nummb3rs are set to go too.
Is it true that CBS is the number one network? And wow they have a really strong line up.
I really think CBS needs to put Accidentally on Purpose after Old Christine, it’s a better fit with it than Gary Unmarried.
CBS should axe Three Rivers after next week’s airing. Cold Case will be gone by May and Numb3rs may be gone in May but will stay in its slot throughout the season. With NCIS: LA and The Good Wife renewed, AOP should get additional episodes.
I hope the Good Wife not only remains steady-but grows. I really want that series to be renewed.
GARY UNMARRIED FOREVER! I’m sorry, but that show is funny. I also love how the Big Bang Theory is now the number one CBS shows-especially since it’s renewal was in question it’s first season. GO BIG BANG THEORY!
@The_GodfatherSJP: They do get original ideas. Then it gets canceled cause people were to busy watching the CSI spin-off. Pushing Daisies was original. Eli Stone was original. Harper’s Island was original. Kings was original. My Own Worst Enemy was original. Then there are shows with basic premises, but that have something original to offer like Without a Trace, Life, Reaper, and Life on Mars. By the way, all the series I named were all canceled.
Heradite – While NCIS: LA will return for a second year, The Good Wife is 50/50 in my opinion. Only time will tell.
Phil, I will publish the season to date numbers tomorrow, but CBS is currently #1 in viewership, 18-49 and 25-54, Fox is #1 in 18-34, so far this season. Fox is doing relatively much better this fall than usual.
However, all that will change when American Idol returns in the spring.
Ghost Whisperer and Gary Unmarried are co-produced by CBS with ABC Television Studios. Since the (P) is next to Criminal Minds, which is another ABC/CBS co-production, I’m wondering if they should all have the same status?
Oh, and by status I just mean having the (P) next to their name, not in terms of their possible futures.
CBS has never really had luck with medical shows, maybe they should just stick to what they’re good at, Crime Dramas and Spin-offs of other crime dramas
Chicago Hope was pretty successful. I can’t really think of any other medical shows that have been tried on CBS.
“3 Lbs” and “Presidio Med.” Neither of them lasted a full season either.
Three Rivers and Cold Case will end soon.
I don’t think people will watch Medical Dramas like Mercy, Trauma and Three Rivers when there’s already three hit medical shows like Grey’s Anatomy, House and Private Practice.
At least Cold Case fans won’t have the months of uncertainty that those of Without A Trace had last Season – even at this early stage it is almost a Slam Dunk it will get the axe.
However one thing I have noticed over the past few weeks is the number of people (including Bill) who believe that Cold Case and WaT battled it out for the last drama renewal on CBS.
Unless you believe CBS are lying this is not so – obviously CC was renewed, WaT wasn’t but they are on record as stating that the final renewal spot was between WaT and Numb3ers.
on the color blindness note:
Sorry it doesn’t help. Red and Green are basically the same on a monitor. In print it would be no problem.
May I suggest Blue?
“The Big Bang Theory” and “Cold Case” are Warner Bros. shows. No (P).
Michael writes, “Can anyone think of a show in its fourth season or later that was yanked in the middle of its run? is there a veteran show I’m not thinking of that was yanked in the middle of its run?”
“The John Larroquette Show” was yanked 6 episodes into its 4th season, never to be seen on NBC again. Also “Rhoda” (won several Emmys – cancelled 2 months into its 5th season), “Miami Vice,” “Boston Public,” “For Your Love,” “Good Times,” “Weird Science,” “Just Shoot Me,” “Suddenly Susan,” “Mr. Belvedere,” “Simon & Simon” (often the #1 show of the week in the early ’80s – CBS never aired the series finale), “Dear John,” “A Different World,” etc. Plenty of others, as well, that had all remaining segs burned off over the summer; I just named ones I could recall that had episodes hit the garbage can. Most of those involved management changes at their networks, though. CBS has not had that. I was told “Cold Case” only got a 13 episode pickup, anyway. If that’s true, then common sense says it’s not going to be on until May.
Ack. CBS has a piece of “Cold Case” now. When did this happen?
Well, scratch that.
I’m not a huge fan of Alex O one way or the other but I have to wonder why Moonlighting (or whatever his show was called) was cancelled when Vampires are the hottest thing in the world right now, only to bring Medium over from NBC and hand Alex this Craptastic Three Rivers show. His fans have suffered enough and perhaps they are doing what I decided to do after CBS cancelled WAT and The Unit, which is not give any new CBS show a chance ever. I currently watch CSI, CM, CSI Miami, Survivor – after those go off CBS and I will never meet again. They’ve lost me as a viewer forever. They don’t respect their fans. Good Wife, they can shove it, Three Rivers, shove it even further. They could offer up the best show in the world and I’ll never watch it.
aaronhotchner, Moonlight was canceled two years ago, about a year before the vampire hype began. It was not canceled for Medium or Three Rivers.
As for losing you as a viewer, sounds like you are still a pretty dedicated CBS viewer and will be for a very long time. None of the shows you listed are in any danger of being canceled any time soon.
That’s another thing. How many dead body criminology shows can we have? How many shows about mental cases? So CBS cancels WAT (the only show with a real heart) The Unit (nothing else like it on the air) and now is going after Cold Case. They cancel Moonlighting – also nothing else really like it on the air (at the time it was on). Only to give us CSI, CSI Miami, CSI NY, NCIS, NCIS Los Angeles, Criminal Minds and now Criminal Minds somewhere else (probably Seattle)
So CBS cancels anything that isn’t a fembot. Criminal Minds is a great show but do we really have respect for a Network that can’t do anything even remotely different and stand by it? What’s going to happen when all of a sudden people get sick of watching people and families bludgeoned to death and laying on a slab? They wont’ have anything left but amazing race and it’s 8 emmy’s
Hi Julia
I realize Moonlighting wasn’t cancelled for Three Rivers or Medium but you have to wonder about a network that would cancel a show with such a strong fanatical following. And correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t Moonlighting on at the same time Twilight was gaining momentum? How stupid could CBS be?
I am a semi-strong CBS viewer but it used to be that CBS was the only network I watched. Now I watch 4 shows when I used to watch more like 12. That’s not saying much for CBS. CSI is on it’s way out. CSI Miami is pushing it with recent cast changes. Criminal Minds is history if Thomas Gibson leaves and then there is Survivor. If a person like me sat down with a CBS Exec he’d be crying and crapping his pants by the time the interview was through because he’d see that a once solid viewer is now on her way out. Like I said, I will never give any new CBS show a chance. They don’t deserve my loyal patronage and I know alot of people feel the same way. Every hour I spend on another network opens me up to their other shows and slowly but surely I find myself drifting over. Bye Bye CBS. Thanks for cancelling WAT for no good reason
aaronhotchner, the Twilight books may have been selling like hotcakes already, but vampires on TV did not catch on until this summer. True Blood’s first season was not especially highly rated, but its DVD sales this summer were huge and it had a huge season two in the ratings. You expected CBS to see into the future that if it just holds on to a mediocre show for two seasons longer than the ratings warranted, they’ll get a pay off! I wasn’t aware that networks had become psychic. Definitely a good quality to have.
If I recall correctly, the Demo and viewership numbers for Moonlight were about the same as “Medium” and “Numbers”… there is, I believe, a lot more to the story concerning CBS’s decision to cancel this show, which might come to light someday.
I would be shocked to see “Numbers” pulled before the end of this season, but not all that surprised if it is not renewed next year. The show has never rebounded from the loss of Diane Farr. Additionally, there seems to be a shift in emphasis from crime solving to the personal/professional/family aspects of the characters, which is not all that engaging.
Julia made a good point that CBS could not have predicted the success of vampire media like Twilight and True Blood and even TB didn’t take off in a big way until Season 2.
CBS don’t cancel shows for no good reason but it’s because they are in a position that they can cancel shows with ratings that other networks would be happy with which is both a good thing and a bad thing.
Robert and I both thought the Moonlight cancellation was a 50/50 thing, even though it was CBS’ lowest rated scripted 18-49 show. I don’t think CBS missed out on a bonanza because they canceled it, but I don’t think it would have been a disaster if they had kept it either. The fact they haven’t been able to hit a home run in that timeslot since is after the fact information that couldn’t be anticipated.
Other factors that played a hand in Moonlight’s cancellation:
- It’s a Warner Bros production, not in-house
- CBS asked Warner Bros and Joel Silver productions to cut the budget or cost of the show, they refused
- Lots of creative turmoil behind the scenes – Moonlight went through 5 showrunners and the creators of the show were fired when the show returned after the writer’s strike
Shaz you’re right about Moonlight cancellation.
But ,CBS really thought Moonlight loyal viewers only cared about Alex , so they thought canceling Moonlight and giving Alex a new show would be a good move for them. CBS really wanted a Medical show , so they promoted just Alex in TR thinking Moonlight viewers were a sure thing and that new viewers would watch too.I think they put the show in the Sunday slot because they thought with Moonlight numbers and some new viewers the show could get 11 or 12 millions easily.
Well, looking at the ratings it is clear not even Moonlight fans are watching.
Moonlight was never about Alex . And promoting just Alex in this show forgetting about Kate , Alfre, Daniel…another mistake.
I think CBS’s thinking was that if Alex got a relatively big following in a cult show like Moonlight, how much more popular would he be in a show that targeted mainstream audiences?
You can’t really blame CBS for thinking that Moonlight was all about Alex. Even now, there are far more fansites for Alex out there than there are fansites for the other Moonlight actors or Moonlight itself combined. Even the so-called Three Rivers fansites post more content about Alex than the other Three Rivers actors. So the “we will watch Alex in anything” fans outnumber (or drown out anyway) the fans who are more interested in Moonlight as a whole.
You also can’t blame CBS for putting Alex in Three Rivers. Alex has said in interviews that he was offered several scripts and he chose Three Rivers. The most you can “blame” CBS for is introducing Alex and Carol Barbee to each other. So Alex being in Three Rivers is either bad luck or bad judgment (depending on if you think he should have been able to forsee how bad the show would be).
I think Alex saw a good idea. One he could get into. Actors can only perform what is scripted. I did not care for the first eppy of 3R but I did enjoy the second one. Personally I would have liked for him to have been in the NCIS spin off…..but I tend to like the action/crime better than hospital themed ones.
Isn’t the whole vampire craze more greared at younger audiences, its all about some young girl, older male vampire seduction, sex.
I didn’t see much of Moonlight, but i didn’t get that vibe from it.
It was more older skewing? Could be wrong, but i ‘m 27 and never had any interest in it, only watching bits and pieces, here and there.
PLus the show was on a Fridays, unless your FOX in the 90’s and struggling, and you allow a show to grow, X Files. That’s a tough slot.
Personally, I think Three Rivers has potential IF they start focusing more on character development of the three leads: Alex O’Loughlin, Kate Moennig, and Daniel Henney. Their fans are all clamoring for more screen time of them. CBS also needs to move TR away from that awful Sunday night time slot to a more friendly location like Wednesday nights at 8 p.m. With Mandy Patinkin guest starring in mid November, they’ll be able to get at least some of the Criminal Minds audience.
Cold Case only had a 13 episode order? As to it’s ratings… well, when it starts 40 minutes late.. that may skew the ratings just a little bit.
Look at big bang theory go.
Good for them. Its a great show.
What’s sad is that it debuted when Chuck did. I think if Chuck were on CBS, or at the very least, not on NBC (or done so many disservices by NBC) it would have been a top show too.
Thoughts?
Wow! Australians are quick . Just one episode of Three Rivers and they canceled it. I think that because Vampire Diaries is doing better in demo than Three Rivers , CBS should cancel Three Rivers and put a repeat of Vampires Diaries instead. I love Cold Case , but I think is a goner too.
It is a goner sadly. We’re going to get one more season of Cold Case with 22 or 23 episodes.. then it will be time to bid farewell to it.
I was a Orange County law enforcement officer for 16 years, with the last 6 years of my tenure in the capacity of homicide investigator. I’ve viewed shows such as CSI & they might as well be cartoons. I cannot think that a show could possibly me more unrealistic than a CSI interrogating murder suspects. It’s almost insultingly comical. “Southland” was a much more accurate portrayal, unfortunately it was on NBC, and apparently NBC is no longer in the television business.