Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 11, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.48 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.72 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.73 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.77 |
| Community | 0.93 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.94 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.95 |
| The Office (P) | 1.56 |
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Get your fill of lovely San Francisco outdoor shots in Trauma while they last. My guess is they won’t be around much longer. Certainly not next season.
Mercy is in only marginally better shape than Trauma. Maybe the difference between lasting the entire season and getting pulled early. Maybe not.
Because its average has its airings after The Office baked into it, Community looks in better shape than it is. We’ll have to see how it settles in its 8pm timeslot. I’ve changed Parks & Recreation to orange as well (from red). With the general carnage that is NBC’s schedule they’re going to have to either replace almost every scripeted show (which may happen in the take out the Ben Silverman garbage efforts) or they’ll have to hold their noses and bring back some way below average shows. Prime candidates for desperate moves like that are half hour sitcoms.
Although SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it was limited run, I’m not including it.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Trauma is flat out Terrible. And that’s coming from a guy who saw Dude, Where’s My Car? twice in the theater.
Lol, hilarious that only one of their scripted shows is not below average. Come on 30 Rock, make that two. I also think Parenthood could be a solid second hour of scripted TV though who knows…
The Office- highest rated NBC show
Just cancel Mercy and Trauma. Keep Community and change the timeslots and give 30 Rock the 8p slot.
Trauma was awful. Mercy started out on shaky footing but it’s gotten much better quality wise. It doesn’t look good for that show either but I hope NBC keeps it. I’m not holding my breath though.
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Community’s numbers will go up next week, but the average will continue to decline. Parks & Rec is probably done. Oh well, fun while it lasted.
Wow, The Office really blows the curve for everything else.
I wonder if NBC will cancel Trauma before sweeps week.
Craig, SNF is what is ruining the curve.
Problem is, what are they going to bring in if they pull these shows? Southland was shockingly canceled and Parenthood has been plagued since the beginning and seems to be dead…what else have they got???
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Mike, they have Chuck.
OUCH for “Trauma”. It’s a goner. QUESTION: How is “Mercy” in a plum slot if it has no lead in, AND every show in that timeslot has horrible ratings? I think Mercy will get a full season, and it should, it’s grown to be a pretty decent show… unlike Heroes. I would say “Parks” and “Community” will get their 13 episodes and then be done. Then NBC will move “The Office” and “30 Rock” to the 8pm hour, and put in a new drama- maybe “Parenthood”? at the 9pm hour.
EDIT to my previous comment:
OR- NBC could put “Chuck” in the Parks/Community hour, but that would probally give equally horrible ratings.
P now means “made by network’s production company.” It’s a new thing for the R/C Index.
Im praying for Mercy. Please keep it NBC!
Bill forgot to edit the template for NBC.
Brandon,pun intended?
craigward, “P now means “made by network’s production company.” It’s a new thing for the R/C Index.”
Even more information for the same low, low price!
Nick I’d be willing to bet a weeks pay that NBC will not move The Office from 9PM. It’s just not going to happen when The Office is NBC’s top scripted show.
D’oh! Fixing the P mistake.
Hey, does anyone on this website think that Trauma is a good show? Im praying that NBC will keep on the air
Tommy your right. I DOUBT NBC would move it’s only show getting decent ratings now that I think about it. Maybe it would be more likely that “Parks” and “Community” get the axe after their 13 eps and then “Chuck” takes over the timeslot.
Yes, of course, how can I forget Chuck! Still that’s just ONE show. Out of curiosity, I would love to know how Southland’s numbers from last season stack up against the scripted fare from this season? I still think it’s inexplicable they canceled Southland and even more so that they’re refusing to air episodes they’ve already paid for!
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Jake, I think the shots of San Francisco look great, but I watch the show muted and FF’d past the indoor shots, so I couldn’t comment overall on the show.
I’ve only seen a few episodes of The Office, i saw the post superbowl 1 hour episode.
It strikes me as a show that could be stretched to 1 hour easily.
Maybe they should have more 1 hour wedding, superbowl episodes, considering the state of NBC.
Jake, this site does not judge quality, only how shows do in the ratings. In the ratings, Trauma is horrible. It is NBC’s worst non-Friday show.
I’m thinking the headline should have been NBC: Code Blue. Wow! What a terrible line up. Given the carnage here, what are the odds that Law & Order comes back? Seriously, even though it has the worst demo ratings in the entire batch. What would NBC do if they didn’t have that show to rerun endlessly?
Nick I doubt will see anything besides 30 min Comedies on Thursdays from 8-10PM this year. Chuck will most likely be on Mondays at 8, that’s where NBC said it would be in March after the Olympics, and if it comes back early it will probably still go to Mondays at 8 and Heroes will get bumped to 9.
vsaint, they had several one hour episodes at the beginning of last season. It didn’t work out too great, quality-wise, and the ratings went down as they went on, if I remember correctly.
Mike, Southland’s last episode got a 1.9. Trauma’s last episode got a 1.8. Not much better.
Mike G., you may have a point with L&O reruns, but as with L&O:CI it could still go to originals on USA (or elsewhere) and do repeats on NBC.
Mabey NBC will do better when the J.J Abrams show comes on.
What happened to the Debra Messing sitcom that NBC got after a bidding war over stations?
So have we given up on tracking “prime” spots altogether now? Not complaining, just asking. Why? Was it to subjective?
zeker, from the post:
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
Wow. I should learn to read, eh? *blush*
Don’t worry. No one ever reads the prose.
NBCs figures are so bad, I’d put money on this being the first year in history that a network actually ends up cancelling itself.
No NBC next year guys. Or perhaps just Leno for one hour a night and then a test card for the rest of the time.
With Trauma basically dead, NBC can always just throw an episode of Dateline in that slot. The ratings won’t be any better, but it will stop the bleeding. They could also give Leno 2 hours on Monday, I’m sure the Leno haters would love that. The way things are going for NBC, anything is possible.
remember NBC has The Celebrity Apprentice coming back in March that will likely get over 9 or 10 million viewers.
Mercy should get a full season, Trauma may air all 13 episodes but will get axed, and Community will get a full season.
I think P&R will make it through the season as NBC has other major holes to fill with Trauma, Mercy, etc. I’ve watched P&R from the start and it’s gotten better. NBC probably wants to keep Amy P. in its family and willing to give it more leeway than others. But I bet replacements for doomed series will not all be scripted. They might franchise Biggest Loser to BL – Teens or BL – Sisters vs Brothers.
I still think Law & Order will be back for one more season. Trauma was ok, but nothing to cry about if it gets canceled. P&R and Community need to grow. I seriously think NBC’s comedy schedule should be like this:
8:00
30 Rock
8:30
Parks and Recreation
9:00
The Office
9:30
Community
30 Rock is on it’s fourth season already, and if it can’t stand on it’s own, then it shouldn’t be brought back. Heroes needs to fall so they end it.
Also NBC needs to split Biggest Looser up: one on Tuesday, another on Wednesday. It would be easier to launch new series this way.
wow! NBC only has 1 show above its 18-49 average for the season. That is depressing.
they really only have 8 scripted shows
i didn’t realize how many were thrown out when jay came along
MAN, i like Trauma
Trauma is down right AWFUL..and if i wanted to see another Nurse having an affair on her husband,i would be watching an above average Nursing show like Nurse Jackie.Mercy is “OK”..But enough already on Nurses being screw ups on their marriages and thier lives.Plus to may flaws on the show.I counted 4 already on two shows that would have two characters fired on the spot.Cancel the Awful Trauma and have Mercy and “Mercy”…
I’m waiting for Persons Unknown, cant wait for that to replace one of the crappy NBC dramas. The trailer for it looks amazing, really intense, and its interesting that its going to be on NBC.
I’m not a fan of Heroes, watched it and liked it the first season, but after the first few episodes of season two I gave up and I’m not inclined to try and pick it up again but a few words should be said in it’s defence. Although it has been setting new lows for ratings this year, for which it has rightly come in for criticism, it isn’t performing that badly as compared to other NBC shows, particularly L&O: SVU, Heroes has a (marginally) better cancellation index than SVU but SVU hasn’t got the critism that Heroes has got, it seems that Heroes has become a bit of a whipping boy while SVU gets a pass on account of the schedule move. As Heroes has a schedule move too, I don’t understand the difference in perception.
Yes, SVU moved time and day while Heroes only moved time, but both should have similar costs ( SVU is paying $350K per episode each for Meloni and Hargaty which should make it’s costs similar to Heroes). The expectations should be the same for both as should the criticism for both for failing to meet those expectations. Last year both had demos of about 3.5, this year both are getting about 2.5, both should be getting stick for the big decline, but Heroes seems to get the blame for it’s decline while Leno gets the blame for SVU, why the double standard? Lots of talk about this being the last year for Heroes but none about SVU. Maybe I’m missing something, maybe the costs are radically different but I don’t see it.
Nikki is reporting that Zucker is out with the Comcast deal!
I guess Heroes also be canceled at may 2010. it has very small chance to get s5
John, with Heroes currently being NBC’s #2 show on the index I think it has a fair chance at getting a Season 5 The Index may change but I don’t see Heroes dropping very far on the Index. Yes it’s ratings are bad, but NBC’s ratings are worse. Unless NBC decides that they need to do a complete network reboot (which is actually a good idea in my opinion) Heroes will probably live on for 1 more year at least.
Whats the big deal with you guys in Heroes, seriously? Stop bashing on Heroes, because they got better acting and better actors than other crap tv shows.
kyle, the Debra Messing show you may be talking about could be the Starter Wife over on NBCU owned USA. I believe that series was canceled though and you could be referring to a new project.
Heroes has the 2nd highest index renewal for NBC.
I’m a Heroes fan and it’s not what it once was. you shouldn’t compare it to the past and other shows. Its doing well by NBC standards.
It’s a big cast, but most of the actors aren’t in all episodes, and i’m sure they’ll negotiate reduced contracts, since ratings are falling, to be picked up for 5th season.
Dave, there was a pilot order in April for a new sitcom. There’s no information on the show after the initial order, though, so it could still be in development or it could be dead.
Jeff Zucker just keeps on coming back to life only to kill NBC even more. If NBC would get rid of this guy for good this would be a much better network. Please get Bonnie Hammer of USA & SyFy to program NBC.
Comcast please don’t let that idiot stay in charge.
that’s what they get for not bringin Chuck back sooner.
WOW NBC’s drama shows are so sad!
They only have Chuck and Parenthood for next year
I like Trauma. Next season I am going to DVR all new shows that I’m interested in for three episodes to see what the reviews are. I’m sick of everything being canceled while crap like American Idol, Kate plus? and The Hills live on… and on… and on……..
So, three scripted shows are safe for now. And The Office is so far ahead of everything else that it’s the only scripted show above the network average. Yeesh.
Oh please God keep Community, easily the best new comedy this season, possibly the funniest show on TV.
Hmm. The seasons before their triple blockbusters premiered, ABC had just football & a franchise they milked as much as possible (Bachelor) in the T30. So at least NBC has one scripted show doing well I suppose.
Of course, ABC was a fail because of airing so many editions of an unscripted show, while NBC is trying to counteract their fail by airing so many editions of an unscripted show. Still, I doubt that many thought a network could perform such magic in the space of one year.
And the seasons before Idol premiered, Fox was pretty much a non-entity (well, the one-shot Joe Millionaire which flopped its 2nd season). Now for the fall season they have one of the T2 dramas, a show near the head of the pack of the comedy #1 race which anchors one of just two currently successful comedy nights, and the 2nd-highest rated new original show of the season by viewers and critics.
Get rid of P&R, bring back My Name Is Earl!
Goodbye Trauma !!! Hello Chuck !!!!
Um, I am not sure if you have been reading reviews lately, but critics have been praising PARKS as much-improved in quality over last season. With this buzz, I believe NBC will hang onto PARKS for another year.
Yep, bring back “Chuck” and let it get the same lousy ratings and it will be cancelled this season too. Better to wait until after the Olympics.
Sean Storm writes, “Um, I am not sure if you have been reading reviews lately, but critics have been praising PARKS as much-improved in quality over last season.”
They lied. But you’re correct that it’s not going anywhere for the foreseeable future. The bad shows never do.
Julia is definitely right about The Office one hour episodes. They usually suffer in quality and don’t do so well. That show is at its best on half hour episodes. I’m just hoping Community either does better as people find their way to the new timeslot and the show grows or NBC wises up (hah!) and puts a proper lead-in on both those new shows.
The office is so far ahead of the pack here, it makes the others all seem so bad.
Just out of curiosity, if the office didnt exist on nbc, what would the network average be and how would all the shows be fairing then?
It would be an interesting thing to see I think
wirralsman, SNF is the show that is skewing the index. If The Office didn’t exist, there wouldn’t be that much improvement. Some, but not a huge amount. It only makes up one half hour of the whole week, while SNF is close to three.
Dont’ forget Football Night In America, the pregame, its 1.5 hours are relatively quite strong for NBC as well, and are longer than any other show except Biggest Loser and SNF each week.
When it comes to Parks, it’s not so much about buzz as it is NBC wanting to keep both Amy Poehler and the execs from The Office happy. And as long as it stays on or above a 2.0, it’s not going anywhere.
@ Riff Rafferty,
get out of here. nobody likes you.
Bill, can you hire some bouncers to get rid of this fool?
The fact is P&R will probably last the season, but not anymore than that. Too bad. Of course, the index is being thrown off by SNF, I don’t think we can make the call at least until spring.
are you drunk?? mercy is the most rated new show on nbc and law and order goes good on friday, the best show since las vegas! and community and park’s are saved..?? i repeat myself.. are you drunk??
Adrianna, I believe you are drunk. Total viewers does not matter in the slightest for renewal decisions. In the 18-49 demo, Mercy is doing poorly even by NBC’s standards.
CANCEL PARKS AND RECREATION AND BRING BACK MY NAME IS EARL!!! anyone agree with me?
Brendan- Whether or not anyone agrees with you, it’s irrelavent. Not going to happen. Not only has everyone (cast & crew) moved on, but the numbers didn’t (and still don’t) justify saving it.
yeah well parks and rec is terrible
You could tell from the season premieres that both Trauma and Mercy were going to be going later if not sooner. Both are ridiculously fake to the point where you can tell they didn’t even bother to use any type of outside consulting to attempt to get anything somewhat real.
some child up past their bedtime wrote, “get out of here. nobody likes you. Bill, can you hire some bouncers to get rid of this fool?”
Does this site do sigs? I’d like to make this mine.
The biggest disappointment of NBC’s new season: Heroes. Poor story line, no action whatsoever. The writers seem to have painted themselves in a corner where they don’t know how to get out. Is this the time for a Dallas dream season gimmick to go back where the series was some time during season 3? I am not surprised at the declining ratings. That’s what the show deserves.
i watched P&R last season and i enjoyed it, havent tuned in this season, havent had the time, ive already got to many shows on thursdays to watch as it is.. so i cut out NBC and im focused on The CW, and ABC
the plus side to P&R is the cost to make the show compared to other comedies would be alot cheaper
I don’t understand why so many are bashing Trauma. I like everything about it! Why do people feel the necessity to put other people’s work down? What shows have you commentators produced? What do you hope to produce or direct or act in? What do you wish you could be when you grow up? NBC: Please keep TRAUMA! There are a least 6 million people who love it. Some of the classic shows throughout time have almost been yanked off the air prematurely – All in the Family, Mary Tyler Moore,& I think, The Dick Van Dyke show & many more.
Trauma is fantastic!