Earlier I’d written not to make much of the lift reported with premiere week’s C3 numbers. But if the table posted on the Nielsen Wire is correct, the comparisons are C3 (commercial viewing live plus 3 days of DVR) vs. live commercial viewing.
When I’d cited the B&C story, they had compared the C3 commercial ratings numbers to live program ratings.
But if the improvements to House and Grey’s Anatomy are over live commercial viewing, then the DVR viewing is indeed meaningful.
In any case, the Live+SD program ratings commonly reported are still a good proxy for the C3 numbers, but we probably need to start rethinking the impact of DVR viewing, at least a little bit.
To clarify, I want to get away from generalized statements like “DVR viewing doesn’t matter to revenue”, because clearly in some cases it does. However, the Live+SD numbers are a very good proxy (they’re actually higher than the C3 numbers for House and Grey’s below) it is fair to say that the Live+7 DVR numbers that come out weeks after a show airs don’t matter to a show’s fate.
C3 is the metric that advertising is bought and sold based on. Here’s the Nielsen Wire info:
Nielsen today released “C3? ratings data for television viewing in the first week of the 2009-2010 TV season. C3 is a measure of the commercials watched both live and three days DVR playback and is the metric under which much of primetime advertising is bought and sold.
Three NFL games appeared at the top of the C3 ratings list for the 18-49 year old demographic group. These games, like most sports programming, did not receive much of a lift from rating for live viewing and the C3 number. The top entertainment shows received a bigger boost from DVR playback, however. After three days of DVR playback, Fox’s House rose more than a full rating point to 6.3 from 5.2. ABC’s Grey’s Anatomy rose from a 5.1 live rating to a 6.1 rating on C3.
| RANK | Show | Date | Start Time | Live+SD Program Viewing | Live+3 Commercial Ratings (C3) | Commercial Ratings — Live Viewing |
| 1 | FOX NFL SUNDAY-SINGLE | 9/27/2009 | 1:03 PM | 6.8 | 6.6 | |
| 1 | CBS NFL NATIONAL | 9/27/2009 | 4:16 PM | 6.8 | 6.6 | |
| 3 | NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL | 9/27/2009 | 8:31 PM | 6.8 | 6.4 | 6.3 |
| 4 | HOUSE | 9/21/2009 | 8:00 PM | 6.7 | 6.3 | 5.2 |
| 5 | GREY’S ANATOMY-THU 9PM | 9/24/2009 | 9:00 PM | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.1 |
| 6 | NFL REGULAR SEASON L | 9/21/2009 | 8:30 PM | 5.7 | 5.5 | |
| 7 | FAMILY GUY | 9/27/2009 | 9:00 PM | 5.2 | 5 | 4.3 |
| 7 | SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | 9/27/2009 | 8:22 PM | 4.9 | 5 | 4.9 |
| 9 | CLEVELAND | 9/27/2009 | 8:30 PM | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| 10 | NCIS | 9/22/2009 | 8:00 PM | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.9 |
| 11 | DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES | 9/27/2009 | 9:00 PM | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| 11 | BIG BANG THEORY, THE | 9/21/2009 | 9:30 PM | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.6 |
| 13 | NCIS: LOS ANGELES | 9/22/2009 | 9:00 PM | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| 13 | TWO AND A HALF MEN | 9/21/2009 | 9:00 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 |
| 15 | SIMPSONS | 9/27/2009 | 8:00 PM | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| 16 | CSI: MIAMI | 9/21/2009 | 10:00 PM | 4.3 | 4 | 3.7 |
| 16 | CRIMINAL MINDS | 9/23/2009 | 9:00 PM | 4.4 | 4 | 3.5 |
| 16 | FOX NFL SUNDAY-POST | 9/27/2009 | 4:25 PM | 4 | 3.8 | |
| 19 | CSI | 9/24/2009 | 9:00 PM | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.4 |
| 19 | COUGAR TOWN | 9/23/2009 | 9:30 PM | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| 19 | CSI: NY | 9/23/2009 | 10:00 PM | 4 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| 19 | CBS NFL REGIONAL | 9/27/2009 | 1:03 PM | 3.9 | 3.8 |
Source: The Nielsen CompanySeptember 21-27 / Persons 18-49
Definitely some differences in there vs commercial ratings.
House up 1.1
Gray’s Anatomy up a point
Family Guy up .7
Cleveland Show up .6
Looks like the smallest difference in the Sunday Night Football programming, but that’s not a surprise — folks like to watch that live and tend to DVR only if they have to work or go to an event of some sort or something like that.
Another potential factor for the decisions on show’s fates, possibly (provided, as you say, these numbers are correct)? Maybe… time will tell. Either way, interesting numbers.
we probably need to start rethinking the impact of DVR viewing, at least a little bit.
I don’t see why. The bottom line is still the same. C3 is approximately the same or less than Live+SD. Live+7 numbers are still pretty much meaningless in terms of renewal. We already knew that there is a faction of DVR viewers who do view commercials, and a lot of them are probably people who just rewind a show 30 seconds when they miss a line, and then are counted as DVR viewers.
Julia, you are correct, maybe I should have bolded “at least a little bit”.
With some things being precise and avoiding generalized blanket statements is worthwhile.
“Because the Live+SD numbers are a good proxy for C3, the additional DVR viewing we see for Live+7 doesn’t matter for a show’s prospects” is very different than: “DVR viewing doesn’t matter to revenue”.
In practice, the television press defines “DVR viewing” as “the increase from Live+Same Day ratings to Live+7 day ratings”.
By that definition*, “DVR viewing doesn’t matter to revenue” is correct, since the advertising value of the show is substantially captured by its Live+SD viewing.
*technically wrong as it may be because it doesn’t include Same Day DVR viewing, it seems to have become the accepted definition.
Not to be greedy or get you in trouble, but is there any way you can include the Live+SD numbers for these shows?
Bill, if the television trade press was writing “DVR viewing has no revenue impact”, I’d agree with you. But they aren’t writing that, *you* are
.
And now, certainly, the trade press will write “DVR has revenue impact!”
DVR viewing does have revenue impact, but the difference between the L+SD and the L+7 viewing doesn’t. No harm in being less confusing.
I’ll update the table with the SD 18-49 data so it’s easy for people to do the comparisons.
“Bill, if the television trade press was writing “DVR viewing has no revenue impact”, I’d agree with you. But they aren’t writing that, *you* are”
But, as of this week, we’ve effectively signed onto that definition too, just in the nick of time!
The numbers Nielsen put out for Live+SD for House in the DVR charts is 6.8 for some reason. Or at least, that’s what you guys have listed.
Juila,
our firstboth sources of DVR data for that week had the House L+SD rating as 6.8 in their spreadsheets.I will admit not bothering to check those L+SD numbers with Nielsen’s Live+SD spreadsheet. There may be other differences.
My guess is that since that 6.8 was in both DVR viewing spreadsheets we received that it was in the Nielsen original DVR viewing spreadsheet, which we didn’t see.
I know Travis Yanan had it at 6.7 in the finals for Live+SD, so I assume you got that one right as well. Curious what could cause the discrepancy. Unless it’s a typo on the Nielsen level.
Julia, nope. I had SNF at a 6.8, but House at a 6.7. Maybe the overnights?sorry, didn’t see “DVR charts”
It was definitely 6.7 in the weekly L+SD stuff we get.
Holly, I’ve added the data into the table, for the broadcast primetime airings in the list.
Thanks guys
This is fascinating data. It definitely seems to confirm that there is a significant uptick in dvr commercial viewing [c(LV) vs. c+3] but that Live+SD serves as a decent rough estimate for C3. There are some differences though, like NCIS:LA and Cougartown both having L+SD of 4.4 but NCIS:LA having a C3 4.2 vs C3 3.9 for Cougartown. Not a huge gap but significant. Does Nielsen generate a C7 or anything longer than C3? I think it would be really interesting seeing this data for shows like the Office or Fringe to see if shows with high percentage dvr viewers track differently in anyway.
Live+7 programming ratings are produced, but there is no C7 for commercial ratings. Advertisers have only agreed to pay based on 3 days out.
My guess is that the networks have paid Nielsen to look at the 7 day commercial ratings before, but that the numbers weren’t different enough from the C3 to merit renegotiating w/the advertisers and paying extra for for the measurements. But it’s only a guess.
Could someone explain going from Live+SD(6.7) to C3(6.3)? How do you lose viewers?
@DD,
The Live+SD includes everyone who DVRed the show and watched it before 3 am the next morning. If those people fast forwarded through the commercials, they wouldn’t be counted in the C3 rating, which only count commercial viewing. The C3 also wouldn’t include anyone who watched the show live but flipped to another channel during the commercial breaks.
A key stat to watch in this method of mixing DVR viewing with live is to monitor what programs are DVR’d and watched much later or not at all, Those are your dying populars.
rheffern, “A key stat to watch in this method of mixing DVR viewing with live is to monitor what programs are DVR’d and watched much later or not at all, Those are your dying populars.”
We still get good numbers to be able to determine what shows are watched more after the airdate on DVR, here’s one look from last season.
As far as shows recorded but never watched, it’s conceivable that Nielsen tracks this, but I’ve never seen mention of it publicly.
Thanks for clearing that up Holly. I was under the mistaken impression that Live+SD accounted for commercial viewing also.
btw, its refreshing to read an article’s comments with no ‘why do you hate my show’ entries.