Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 11, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Beautiful Life: TBL (P) | 0.49* |
| Melrose Place (P) | 0.83 |
| Smallville (F), (P) | 0.93 |
| 90210 (P) | 1.03 |
| Gossip Girl (P) | 1.10 |
| One Tree Hill (P) | 1.10 |
| Supernatural (S), (P) | 1.20 |
| Vampire Diaries (P) | 1.67 |
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This is going to be a tough season for Melrose Place fans. Its ratings look almost good enough to hope for renewal for the 2010-11 season. Because of that, fans are likely to be conned by “entertainment” writers (you know who they are) into a “There’s hope for Melrose Place!” frenzy. Don’t fall for it.
Remember Privileged from last season, and it’s associated fan hope hoo-ha in May? It was canceled with an Index of 0.89**. Keep that in mind as you read the TV writers that are baiting the desperate fans.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.
**Although the CW’s Sunday ratings last season were so dreadful that it boosted the Index of all the CW shows to unrepresentative levels, my guess is that removing Sunday from the mix would likely have dropped Privileged’s index to about 0.8.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
The most likely irrelevant, but interesting to some W18-34 index:
America’s Next Top Model – R 0.39
Smallville 0.43
Melrose Place – R 0.48
The Beautiful Life 0.51
Supernatural 0.82
Melrose Place 0.86
One Tree Hill 1.22
90210 1.31
America’s Next Top Model 1.42
Vampire Diaries 1.50
Gossip Girl 1.55
So the show got an upgrade from “Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010″ to “Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010″ and you guys are warning us not to get our hopes up and not to buy into the hype? Hypocritical, this seems.
Julia, your index is impure
Not that it likely changes the relative positions any, you should factor out Supernatural and Smallville (and probably the encores).
My bet is the CW is judging performance of the shows targeted at W18-34 only vs. the performance of other shows targeted at the same group.
But then that requires work. Trying to figure out how to factor The Beautiful Life, especially. Without The Beautiful Life it looks like this:
Melrose Place 0.66
One Tree Hill 0.93
90210 1.00
America’s Next Top Model 1.09
Vampire Diaires 1.14
Gossip Girl 1.19
I think all of this MELROSE PLACE is dead hype is moot until we see what the numbers are from HEather Locklear’s return. If SHE can’t save the show, then it’s probably over for PLACE.
Melrose gets better and better each week in terms of ‘quality’ so I hope it sticks around. I agree though; this means crap until Locklear returns.
Do people honestly think that Locklear is going to have any sort of effect on the ratings? Honestly?
It’s possible Locklear will have a small impact on ratings, I wouldn’t expect it but their might at least be the curious factor initially. Not from me personally, but let’s say I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened. Whatever happens, nobody including the CW is going to give up on the show until after her eps start airing.
Julia, for me that’s a more interesting index. If your math is right, MP looks especially doomed, no matter how much Dawn Loves it.
CSM, I don’t think anyone has suggested that they would. In fact, last week Bill suggested that it will get more episodes, like Privileged did last year.
MP will last to the end of the year. It won’t (can’t) get axed early. CW has nothing ready to air.
Depending on how many filler shows they throw under the AI bus, the additional MP scripts CW ordered could already be enough to get it to the end of the year. So any press releases about additional episodes (vs. scripts) should be looked at closely.
That said, with that kind of W18-34 index, I just can’t see MP sticking around, even with Ostroff staying.
If only they would have given a role to Johnny “Drama” Chase when he auditioned for it in Entourage, maybe they’d have a hit on their hands…
Ha, Eric, it would have been fun if they had given him a guest spot for a couple of episodes and billed him as Johnny Chase.
Locklear will give the show a similar bump that the former 90210 cast made last year.
The problem with her being cast, though, is it wasn’t from the beginning, like in 90210’s case. That generated initial interest in the show; whereas this will probably see a SLIGHT interest.
I HIGHLY doubt anybody outside of Dawn’s brain thinks this will increase the show’s ratings exponentially.
Stunt casting, whether it’s Heather Locklear or not, will not help Melrose Place because the show simply isn’t that good. The program has some interesting elements and 2 or 3 good actors but, overall, the final product isn’t very entertaining at all.
Should I be scared seeing Smallville that low?
I agree with Bruce. ‘Melrose’ is getting better each week. And it’s certainly better written than the early episodes of the original FOX series (not to mention the ridiculous latter years). It took the original series well over 20 episodes to find its magic and get into the full swing and Heather Locklear played a critical part in that. So if they continue to improve the show and find a way to use Locklear well, they might increase their audience. I do wish they aired new episodes on Wednesdays and repeats on Tuesdays, though.
W 18-34 averages:
GG 2.84, Vampire 2.7 2.73, Model 2.52, 90210 2/5 2.28, Hill 2.2 2.23, Place 1.6 1.79, Supernatural 1.63
Oops.
W 18-34 averages:
Through first 5 episodes: GG 2.84, Vampire 2.72, Model 2.52, 90210 2.32, Hill 2.22, Place 1.75, Supernatural 1.56
It might be best, if possible (but probably not) to use the 18-49 demo ratings AFTER they’ve been adjusted with DVR viewing, because most likely, those are the numbers the network might use to decide whether a show stays or goes.
Just a thought.
andrew, but in the case of relative comparisons like this changing to Live+7 viewing for all the shows and the network average would likely make only small differences in the relative rankings, if any at all. Plus, we’d have to wait 2 more weeks for the data!
supernatural should be cancelled.. its an horrible show.
please CW, KEEP MELROSE AND GIVE FULL PICK UP TO 90210!!!
After Single’s comment, I feel I’m in Opposite Land!
And, Bill, you forgot to mention that Live+7 numbers will not be factored in renewal decisions.
Julia, I’m not *certain* Live+7 isn’t factored in, but Live+SD does the trick for us and comes sooner!
I do think Heather Locklear could provide a boost. Unlike 90210 last season, Melrose Place isn’t that bad. If people would tune in to watch HL, they may find that they actually like the show whether she’s there or not. At this point, given its the CW, only a small bump in viewers is needed to have an effect.
I also don’t view this in the same light as Privileged. The CW didn’t put nearly as much promo effort into Privileged as it did Melrose Place. They didn’t seem to try to get more people on board with it the way they have with 90210 and Melrose. I see them judging things a bit differently. They seem to want Melrose to take off, whereas it seemed like they would be happy if Privileged had, but weren’t preoccupied with it happening.
Single Lady. i don’t expect a person that watch both 90210 and melrose place to understan what a good show supernatural is.. so shut your mouth shortbus!
DVR definitely won’t make any difference for Melrose Place, at least not based on the data we have seen so far.
For the week of 9/21-9/27, CW averaged a .40 gain with adults 18-34 when going from L+SD to L+7, Melrose Place was slightly below that with a .38 gain.
You could use “most-current”, which will soon be mostly live+7 without any lag times, but I think the live+SD is cleaner. Plus, I’d much rather you spend your time figuring out how to add up, down and sideways trending indicators!
90210 has a full-season pickup (along with Supernatural, One Tree Hill and Smallville).
I frind it rather odd that Vampire Diaries is the number one show as far total ratings and placed number 2 with reaching demogrpahics although it’s pretty much neck to neck with GG yet they still haven’t renewed it for a full season. TVD is the only show that is making money for The CW.
Joselito:
The CW has ordered 9 more scripts for The Vampire Diaries and I’m sure it’s just a matter of time before the network makes the back nine order official.
I’d say Melrose is screwed unless Locklear manages to save it, and I think there is a small chance of that happening. But probably not. She’s their last hope.
Aren’t heather Locklear fans likely to be out of the coveted 18-34 women.
The girls there targeting would have been teens in the 90’s and watched Locklear originally.
I could see boost overall ratings, maybe just enough.
I dont see the cw canceling it, theyve put too much effort and resources into it. Its “too big to fail” for them & Heather Locklear is its bailout.
Josh, it does seem in some ways that the CW has more “skin in the game” with Melrose Place than they did with “Privileged”, but that may entirely be perception, when in fact the reality is they’re both one hour dramas, that likely cost a similar amount (before Ms. Locklear’s addition), so presumably are required to produce similar results.
And unlike the US auto industry, the more expensive a show is, the more likely it is to be under pressure for poor ratings.
CW likes to announce pickups for several shows at once. It won’t be long before they give a full season to VD and (likely) Melrose. Maybe around when New Moon hits Theaters.
Melrose definitely has it’s work cut out for it if it wants to come back for another season. I think the writers have done a horrible job with that and 90210.
I’m confused. What shows have a full-season pickup?
Why do 90120 and OTH have full-season pickups and not GG?
thefeed just put Smallville on it’s endangered list, citing the Friday move and low target demos.
http://www.thrfeed.com/2009/10/tv-series-survival-guide-.html#disqus_thread
I still don’t agree. I think this site explained it well. Unless something really really out of left field happens, I don’t see why they won’t give it it’s final 10th, especially if the WB wants it.
JenSmith, to clarify my opinion on Smallville, if the producers and the actors, etc. want the show to come back, it will be back, the ratings (at least to this point) aren’t going to kill it.
@Bill Gorman, That is what I’ve read and understood from you and your colleague Robert Seidman.
He went a little further in sharing some of his thoughts on this matter:
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/10/12/cw-dvr-1/30239#comment-137784
The TV Guide Magazine seems to think there isn’t much concern either:
http://www.tvguidemagazine.com/ask-matt/ask-matt-ncis-twisted-history-2770.html
I found the explanation why thrfeed thought Smallville was endangered interesting as opposed to how this site looks at it interesting. In particular Smallville’s weaker demos in the CW target range (young women).
And even though I personally enjoy the show,I could see if it was in it’s infancy, it wouldn’t last another year. That it’s got a proven track record (DVD,etc) has to mean something beyond not meeting the CW’s target demo.
ooops, sorry for the multiple links in my previous comment!
It’s not your fault Jen, it’s just that if we set the spam filter to allow 2 links we’re worried we’ll get more spam.
BTW, I think Hibberd’s rationale is that CW wants to target Women 18-34, Smallville didn’t fit in so they pushed it to Friday has a ring of truth to it, but the only thing that would worry me aside from the producers and actors not wanting to do the show is if CW got a bug up their butt about programming Fridays targeted at women 18-34. My guess is that Fridays being the wasteland it is, CW isn’t going to put any show it really cares about there, regardless of what demographic it targets and that Smallville is better suited to Fridays than any other option they have.
Some will say CW is developing so many shows that it will need Fridays for W18-34 too, but most development projects don’t wind up on the schedule and as it is, out of 10 hours a week of current programming, 2 hours are encores — they’re already programming 20% of their schedule with reruns.
@Robert, Thanks! I felt like Homer Simpson when I hit enter with those two links. D’OH!!
I hear you and agree that it was moved to Friday because it doesn’t fit the CW target. It make sense to me.
And although, I think they could run some targeted romantic Lois/Clark promos during their women oriented shows to see if they could improve their numbers a little, I can see why they wouldn’t bother. The show is near the end.
I honestly think as an outsider that the only reason this show survives like the unwanted guest who won’t leave is because the parent company, WB, makes money and wants it. This, in my opinion is because of the Superman brand, it is a recognizable product.
I think it was a smart move for the CW to move Smallville to Friday, the success of Vampire Diaries is a testament to that decision.
I just think there a lot of other factors in play beyond meeting CW target demos. Especially if they’re only asking for one more year (anything beyond, in my opinion is ridiculous)
Anyway, thanks for all your work and analysis. As viewer habits change, it’s fascinating to read all the thoughts from those who know much more about this stuff than I do!
Robert & Bill, thanks for your insights to Smallville. I’m really enjoying the ninth season and feel like the show has finally gotten to the point I’ve waited for it to for years, that of an honest to goodness Superman show. Seeing as Tom Welling and company are shooting for a tenth and final season in 2010-2011, that’s what I’d like to see it get and am glad that your analysis is currently more hopeful towards that end then not.
Should Smallville be able to get a Season 10, the fourth episode of it would be the show’s 200th. Is being so close to a 200th episode helpful or important at all for a veteran show being more likely to continue? Or does that only come into play with the 100 episode milestone? A 22 episode Season 10 would net Smallville it’s 200th episode and 218 total which would out-do current American genre record holder Stargate SG-1 (214 episodes). I was just curious as to whether or not being close to such records would be favorable to the show or if it’s not something that has an effect one way or the other.
Thank you for your posts and articles!