Our Renew/Cancel Index currently lists Heroes as “likely to be renewed”, and some people think that’s nuts. I’ve read a couple of discussion forums citing our story and saying that conclusion is nut. Is it nuts?
Consider that as bad as Heroes‘ ratings have been, it’s still one of NBC’s best performers.
The Index is definitely not nuts, but…
I don’t think it’s nuts, and not because I’m biased, but because I understand how the Index works.
But I don’t know if I buy the conclusion either, even if it isn’t nuts. I understand how the index reaches the conclusion though. Based on the simple math the index works on, relative to NBC’s network average adults 18-49, Heroes is still one of NBC’s best performing shows.
When it comes to one hour dramas, recently it’s doing better than anything but Law & Order: SVU. It also trails Sunday Night Football, The Biggest Loser, The Office, and now 30 Rock, if you add in this week. But NBC is now so relatively low-rated, particularly when it comes to one hour dramas, that I worry NBC can bust the index. NBC pretty much broke an entire broadcast network primetime lineup, busting our index seems like child’s play in comparison!
All other things being equal, at least for the last two seasons, the index has been a pretty reliable predictor, particularly with one hour scripted dramas. However, “all other things being equal” no longer seems to apply to NBC, and I particularly wonder in the case of Heroes.
Things working against Heroes
- Expensive: I’ve heard even with cost cuts, its current budget was drawn up with adults 18-49 ratings of a 3.0 or better in mind
- Diminishing ratings: premiered under a 3.0 (2.8) and has dropped down to a 2.4 adults 18-49 rating. Even a stunt obviously intended to improve ratings — Hayden Panettiere kissing Madeline Zima — didn’t boost the ratings.
Things people point to in Heroes favor:
DVR viewing
Sure, I know people still watch it on DVR, but recently published Nielsen C3 data (commercial viewing, plus 3 days of revenue) showed that the additional DVR program viewing (Live+7) ratings that are reported long after the fact, don’t really have any impact beyond what’s already included in the live plus same day program ratings.
Verdict: I don’t see the Live+7 DVR numbers mattering at all to Heroes viewing prospects
DVD
While no longer the DVD superstar it was in the past, season 3 has still sold over 500,000 units and at least ~$19 million in revenue (does not include Blu Ray) according to estimates, but keep in mind not all that money goes back to the network.
Verdict: if I assume total revenue gets up to $25 million (in the US) and that NBC Universal winds up seeing at least half of the revenue, it’s definitely a positive. But likely not positive enough to offset a 2.4 rating, especially if it continues to go down from there. Still, it’s at least a factor in its favor.
International Licensing
I have heard that NBC Uni’s International licensing revenue for Heroes has been a big deal in the past. Whether it will be a big deal this season, or more importantly potentially next season, I can’t say. Unfortunately we see limited international data. The data I have seen doesn’t lead me to believe Heroes is doing particularly well in the only couple of countries I’ve ever looked at (Canada and UK). However, those are but two locations. Assuming that the ratings trends abroad aren’t very different than the trend at home, coupled with never hearing of a low-rated show that was ever preserved exclusively because of international licensing…
Verdict: International licensing probably won’t offset a bad ratings-to-cost ratio.
Online Viewing
Hulu, iTunes, NBC.com!
Verdict: It doesn’t matter exactly what they numbers are, they’re not good enough to offset a bad ratings-to-cost ratio.
Syndication/C’mon on how much more expensive can it be than Law & Order: SVU!?
Serial shows don’t do well in syndication, so they don’t make as much in syndication and even at the end of this season, Heroes will only be at about 81 episodes. If it wasn’t a serial show, I could see keeping it around another year to get it to 100 episodes as a big deal. But it is a serial show. Which brings us to “but come on, Law & Order: SVU is expensive! Hargitay and Meloni just stuck it to them for big, big bucks!”
Law & Order: SVU isn’t a serial show. It’s a procedural…
Though moving SVU to 9pm has certainly hurt the ratings, in the most recent week L&O: SVU is still doing a bit better than Heroes (2.6 vs. 2.4). Unfortunately, it’s easier to make ratings comparisons for us than it is cost comparisons. But one other comparison that’s easy to make. Law & Order: SVU reruns aired 25 times last week on USA (also owned by NBC Universal) and that’s just basic cable. It doesn’t count one weekly syndicated airing on a local channel. The weekly Heroes airs again a couple of times on the G4 network. Last week (10/6) a 10pm Tuesday airing averaged 177K and a 2:00am Wednesday airing another 85K. The least-watched SVU rerun averaged 535,000 at 4:00am on a Thursday, the most-watched SVU rerun was 10pm Tuesday – head-to-head with the Heroes airing on G4 that only pulled 177K – that averaged 2.687 million.
Syndication prospects for SVU are so relatively rosy compared to Heroes’ prospects, its expense structure (whatever it is) isn’t as bothersome to me as Heroes’ expense structure (whatever it is).
Verdict: syndication will not play a role in Heroes’ renewal prospects.
It’s NBC’s one of NBC’s best* performing hour long drama!
It really is. This really might matter, too. Hollywood is all about perceptions and egos. If Heroes ratings don’t keep going down, even if a 2.4 isn’t anything to get excited about, it could possibly be enough. Just to give the appearance that NBC has some stability, there’s a case to be made to keep it if they really care about appearances.
Especially if the show isn’t bleeding a ton of money. Ah, if we could only see the financial details! But in a world where Heroes was ranging from making a little bit of money to losing a little bit of money, I could see NBC keeping it around for another season just for appearances.
Verdict: it really is one of NBC’s best performing hour long dramas!
*In our most-recent renew/cancel Index Heroes is actually ahead of Law & Order: SVU, but the trend in the most recent week is SVU outperformed it, if that trend continues SVU will soon overtake it in the Index, perhaps as soon as Tuesday.
Conclusion
If the ratings stabilized at a 2.4, even though it’s one of NBC best-performing hour long dramas, I still think it’s probably “on the bubble”, with some things in its favor that could get it another season. I can’t believe Heroes can afford much more ratings attrition, even if NBC’s overall average continues to go south and Heroes remains one of the best performing dramas. Sad as it is, Heroes could drop down to a 2.0 and still be one of NBC’s best-performing dramas right now.
We’ll see what happens. My guess is the ratings don’t drop off much more and that between DVD revenue, International revenue and saving face, Heroes will be back next year, with an even smaller cast and less cost.
But the season is still very young.
It’s still early, but right now I’m definitely rooting for an overhaul at NBC. Very risky, but at least it has a chance of showing results. If they keep SVU and either leave L&O on Fridays (which I think is a possibility, both for syndication and for the historic 21st season) or stick repeats there, and keep The Office and 30 Rock, they will need 3 new dramas and two new comedies to premiere in the fall. (I’m allowing them to keep Leno for a second year.
) That is very doable, and the new team at NBC should see this as a chance to prove that they know how to develop like nobody’s business. Find the best of the best scripts, make more buzz-worthy pilots than you could ever fit on the schedule, and then promote the hell out of everything.
They’ll probably want to have the same number of mid-season shows on deck as fall, but I still think that six dramas and four comedies picked up is not a ridiculous amount. ABC had more than that this year. (Yes, I know, they still program 10 pm, but still.)
Wait, I forgot about Sunday in the spring. They have Apprentice, and should probably fill in the other two hours with game show type reality.
I’m a fan of the show and I really would like it to not be renewed if they keep messing up on the writing (which is very unlikely to be fixed). Watching it die like that isn’t cool…
Well I know that the main cast is definitely going to get smaller as there is definitely one major death planned coming up. That might save some money. Also, rolling recurring characters through after getting rid of regulars might help the budget as well.
As a fan, I’ll watch until the end, be that this season or the next. I just hope that whenever the final season is, the writers are told and they give a sense of conclusion to the show (I suppose every fan of every show says that).
It’s still early, but I think the only thing that gets Heroes canceled at the end of the season with its current relative ratings are a general “clean house” at NBC that takes out almost everything.
After the first *spectacular* season, I was deeply hooked. A conclusion was made, it was great.
Second season: What do we do? Swap our heros and anti-heros.
Lame.
It’s been *the* reason I didn’t watch the successive seasons.
Well, the episodes do rerun on G4, but I don’t know how much NBC Universal is getting from it.
thats right Jard i will watch evrything i watch intill the end
NBC could sell as many souls as possible to make 3 shows in a single season ratings and Emmy phenoms with enormous water-cooler buzz, a la ABC which before they did that had nothing people watched but Bachelor & football.
If NBCU gets any financial incentives from NYC for the L&O’s, that is an additional factor in favour of L&O, to also include:
a – The original L&O is already on TNT (not syndication? what do they call such a deal?) through 2012, copping 3 million audiences regularly (I haven’t found confirmed demo ratings yet) – but even if they copped a 1.0 for L&O repeats, that’s not bad for TNT – and with more episodes available for TNT, it could financially benefit both TNT and NBCU to extend that deal
b – if they don’t renew the L&O deal for TNT, it would be available for a rumoured new NBCU owned cable channel, along with all of the other L&O’s, as well as other great Universal shows that I am already drooling over the prospect of seeing on TV again (both ’50’s and ’60’s Dragnet, Alfred Hitchcock, Colombo, and Quincy, just to name a few)
(slurppp!)
c – in the case of b, above, coming to pass, new episodes of all three L&O’s could be exclusive to the new channel, improving ratings and interest in the new property…
d – also, they could revive L&O: Trial by Jury, thus adding programming to the new channel, as well as gaining the potential of adding more financial incentives from NYC for the fourth flavour of L&O, plus the extra production cost efficiencies from having a fourth L&O show (crossovers, combined script and production crew staffing, and so forth).
Heroes has none of that – but they do have some international revenues. But how does the L&O omniplex do in international revenues? My guess – at least as well as Heroes, but I don’t know…
…this is more productive than talking about a certain FOX Friday night show
It should be nuts that Heroes is looking likely for a renewal but unfortunately it isn’t.
The one thing that’s always important to remember with the index is that its relative. Sure Heroes on CBS, Fox and even ABC would be dead in the water but its on NBC which right now has bigger problems. Heroes also has the added advantage of still turning a profit for NBC Universal, which just happens to be NBC’s parent company.
Having said that do I think Heroes should be back next season? No but then I’d say the same thing about almost everything on NBC’s schedule right now. I agree with Julia, I’d like to see a big overhaul of NBC next year but I don’t know how realistic that is and whether or not it happens will depend on how things pan out post-Olympics. If by some miracle Chuck, Parenthood and even Day One manage to buck the current NBC trend of failure then things won’t look quite so bad. I’m not holding my breath though.
Of course I still think Heroes will survive in one form or another beyond this season. I don’t buy into the talk of a move to cable just yet though so I guess that means on NBC for now. I think what happens when it inevitably moves back to 9PM (after Trauma is axed) will be the real test. If it somehow magically rebounds to a 3+ at 9PM then it’ll absolutely be back but that is quite obviously a long shot.
Having said that in the spirit of taking risks I’d like to see NBC and NBC Universal gamble and attempt to save/rebuild Heroes as the flagship it should have been. I think a series of special TV movies for next season that aren’t tied into the mythology of the show would be the best place to start. New characters with self contained stories mean people can returning to enjoying the concept and not have to deal with the horrible character writing that’s plagued the show from season 2 onwards. I’m thinking something along the lines of the Heroes Origins spin-off that was talked about after season one.
That then frees them up to relaunch Heroes as a new show 2011-2012 with new characters and hopefully a new creative team.
Theoacme, any show can be filmed in one of the many states that offers tax incentives for film and TV productions. They don’t have to revive a long dead show to get that.
I agree Jared, I don’t really care when they end it, just as long as it has a good ending.
Julia: True enough about almost everyone doing Monte Hall with the incentives…
…except it would almost certainly be much easier to do it in NYC, where the other L&O’s already are, and where the production cost efficiencies and crossovers could be maximised – and as far as I know, Bebe Neuwirth wouldn’t mind a current paycheck…
…and, if Til Death can be renewed, and Dollhouse can be renewed, well, hell probably has already frozen solid, so it’s a very short step from those very improbable events to the improbable, but rational, thought of reviving Trial by Jury.
Remember, the idea of reviving Trial by Jury is to add interest (via having relatively inexpensive, familiar, and new programming) to the rumoured NBCU “crime” cable property – the costs would be favourable for NBCU to do that, if they proceeded.
@ Heroes international numbers
It’s running on a small cable channel in Germany (RTL2) and the ratings dropped like a stone after a big start. Season 3 started a few weeks ago and the last episodes were lower rated than the channels average viewership. Even Torchwood gets bigger numbers.
I could see NBC completely changing there primetime schedule, they already have that J.J Abrams spy drama for a pilot which carries a huge penalty if it doesn’t go to series. They also have that ‘Midnighters’ pilot and a ‘Rockford Files’ and ‘Prime Suspect’ remake. As well as that comedy pilot from the creators of ‘Reno 911′. Could work…..?
Kyle – any word on how big the penalty is?
If the penalty is less than the amount NBC would have to pay to produce 13 episodes, it’s still in NBC’s best interest to pay the penalty (as long as it doesn’t involve Daffy Duck dropping, consecutively, the Rock of Gibraltar, and Niagara Falls, on 30 Rockefeller Plaza
)
…whoops – I forgot to include:
“…unless the show tests well enough to draw at least a 3.5 demo…”
Theoacme, the problem I have with the idea is that NBC’s new team needs to prove they can develop, and that this season was just the fault of all the leftovers hanging about from the previous administrations. Dragging up shows that have been dead for years is not going to do that. And considering how soft the numbers are for the whole L&O franchise right now, I’m not sure how TBJ would help at all.
I say Heroes has had its time, it will never be as good as it was, so it would be best to go out on a high, rather than drag it on, as I am getting so sick of Sylar now, there’s only so much you can take on him, kill him already
Yes — unless they have more scenes like that picture.
Julia: re: NBC management – well, you’re right – that factor is uncalculable right now…
…but let me try to be clear – I wasn’t saying that Trial by Jury would appear on NBC at all.
My logic:
a – Trial by Jury would help the rumoured NBCU “crime” cable channel, by adding new programming to increase interest, and takeup, of the new channel by the cable operators…
b – …and help increase the production cost and staffing efficiencies, as well as maximise any available NYC financial incentives, to NBCU for the entire L&O omniplex…
c – …provided that the cost structure for Trial by Jury is fairly low (perhaps Dollhouse levels)…
d – …and the rumoured NBCU “crime” cable channel actually comes to fruition.
I also did not say that any of the other L&O’s that had new episodes produced would continue on NBC at all – this could happen instead:
a – New SVU’s could air first on NBC (best probability of all the L&O’s, imho),
b – New CI’s could air occasional episodes on NBC as filler, either running first on USA as it is now or go straight to the new channel,
c – New L&O’s may or may not air on NBC, and probably could be reduced to 13 episodes per season, as there’s about eleventy billion old L&O’s already ( !:)¡)- and the cast of L&O could make up their reduced L&O salaries by crossing over to the other L&O’s.
So, it’s possible that, if NBCU does do this “crime” channel, all the L&O’s, save for SVU, could still run, but not on NBC itself. That would allow room for something new to be thrown out, to see if it sticks.
And if the finances are reasonable (and I don’t see why they aren’t, although I would love to see those financials, as would we all!)
Yes, the new NBCU executives could make Homer Simpson look as smart as John Charles Daly (or, for that matter, Charles Nelson Reilly) – but they’re dumping Ben Silverman’s trash left and right, so they can’t be all bad – or can they?
That would make for a nice new Alfred Hitchcock Presents, wouldn’t it
So you think it will be for a new cable network, a la Sleuth and Chiller? First of all, they already have Sleuth. Why would they launch a second one? (I haven’t read anything about these rumors, but if you have a link, I’d love to read it.) If they do launch this new network, I definitely don’t think they would revive a show that, as cheap as they might be able to make it, would still have some sort of budget. They certainly won’t start the network out with anything original that is scripted.
I’d love to see a huge overhaul on NBC & see it go back to its glory days. They have nothing right now, theyre dead.
“All other things being equal, at least for the last two seasons, the index has been a pretty reliable predictor, particularly with one hour scripted dramas. However, “all other things being equal” no longer seems to apply to NBC, and I particularly wonder in the case of Heroes.”
It apparently doesn’t apply to Castle or Better Off Ted or Scrubs either. The index isn’t nuts…just the people who put too much stock in it.
It’d be great if TVByTheNumbers had some page that showed the notional finances for an example show. A simple chart or spreadsheet that showed the costs and revenue streams for the different participants (ie production studio vs broadcaster or cable channel).
I have always said that TV’s main problem is that there are TO MANY CHANNELS. If TV downsized to the Big 3 (ABC CBS FOX) the little three (CW (as the WB of Course) MNT NBC
) and about 15-20 cable channels. Then expensive quality programing (which heroes used to be) wouldn’t fall through the cracks due to fragmented audiences. NBC fell victim to its parent company NBCU’s diversification.
Call me old school but in my opinion its Broadcast Network first Cable next
i agree with Cody on that statement. there are just too many channels out there. They can return to their glory days yes. but the fact is broadcast tv is still on the downturn due to the rise of DVR, Internet and Cable tv. Plus NBCU’S diversification was a win lose situation. Yes NBCU is better off than CBS but it killed their main brand, NBC. If NBCU downsized slightly, and focus a little more on NBC their fortunes might turn around.
Most of the Cable Channels are actually offspring’s of the parent company of the Big 4. Why not downsize to 2-3 channels
EX.
ABC (PC Walt Disney)
ABC Family, Disney Channel, ESPN
NBC
SYFY USA MSNBC
FOX
FOX News FX FOX Sports
That would clear out a lot of garbage channels and maybe the BIG can gain their audience again
I am a fan of Heroes and I think most fans don’t mind if its ends as long as it ends on a creative high note. If the season finale gave me an Epic Battle with Future Hiro and Future Peter fighting Sylar I would be completely happy with the show ending this season.
Personally they should go back to the first season method of only focusing on one or two characters per episode. That way they can save money by not paying the other cast members to be filler.
On other thing that Heroes has against it: Even if it manages to stay above a 2.4 for this season, it won’t next year. With SVU and L&O, you could safely assume they’ll stay fairly stable (depending on scheduling), but with Heroes, the show is pretty much guaranteed to drop again next season. So if a 2.4 is just barely enough now, they don’t really have enough to renew it.
Based on that picture: YES! I’ll be tuning in next episode for sure
boy i hope they kill this show
i was a fan
now its not even recognizable
they changed the characters before we were sure we liked them and turned them into..i dont know what
what a waste
NBC is doomed! Forget Heroes, NBC is the problem!
NBC should try a one season/daily serialized dramedy with 120 episodes at 8PM in January/February.
Then, in Spring lunch 5 big pilots at 9 pm, to prepare next season.
Is it relevant to factor in rentals when discussing DVD revenue? Because season 3 been in the top 10 most rented list for three weeks now and has generated about $40 million in rentals.
I doubt that the studios are seeing any of that rental income are they?
r0ck, I don’t think it’s relevant. The rental companies buy the DVDs. The DVD sales to the rental companies (a hot issue right now with the studios) revenue does count but would be counted in the DVD sales estimates. I’m not sure how much I buy the $40 million in rentals estimate in the day of $1 kiosks, and flat rate monthly services like Netflix, but it doesn’t matter since that revenue doesn’t mean anything to the studios anyway.
I know that rentals always factor into the final grosses of movies, I just wasn’t sure exactly how… it makes sense that rental companies would buy them and then those copies would be factored into total sales. Thanks!
Ugh… the way they used that kiss scene for promotion was just major sleaze.
I don’t think Heroes is savable. If I had to point to one creative mistake they made it was trying to get us to like the two season 1 villains of Claire’s creepy stepfather and Sylar. It made the series end up seeming like it didn’t have a moral compass.
Everyone I personally know who used to watch it has moved on and doesn’t care anymore. I know that some somewhere still watch it but I think its moment has passed and it’s just not salvageable period. I don’t expect it to get another season and it wouldn’t totally shock me if it was off the air permanently by the end of this calendar year.
Not only do the studios not see any of the rental income from DVDs, when the video rental business was in its infancy (obviously with VCR tapes), the studios sued (unsuccessfully) to prevent the entire business model of video rentals.
After reading the after the articles and comments made about this, I believe two things need to be considered in the whole process of whether Heroes should be renewed or not next season: the show runner’s track record and the impact (if any) there may be regarding the Comcast interest in acquiring NBC Universal.
First, if we look at Tim Kring’s record, before he was in Heroes, he was in two medical shows: Providence (as a co-executive producer) and Crossing Jordan (as a creator and executive producer). Can anyone tell me how both of those shows fared? I know Crossing Jordan started off well, yet was canceled and ended on a sour cliffhanger note. Should we expect the same thing with Heroes? Your guess is as good as mine.
Then, we need to look at the companies looking to buy a majority stake in NBC Universal. This includes Comcast, Liberty Media, and possibly News Corp. owning 51% of NBC Universal. Although this is not final, if this goes through, there could be a major shake-up in the works. That would probably mean trouble for Heroes in terms of renewal. At least, that’s what can happen if Heroes continues to drop in ratings.
Jarvis, I dunno… If Heroes continues to drop in the ratings, ownership changes won’t matter. If Heroes continues to drop in the ratings, the showrunner won’t matter any either.
I loved season one, hated the start of season two, quit, but wanted to return if the return of Fuller meant an increase in quality. Instead, it got progressively worse. Most people I know feel like this. It’s a shame, but it is what it is. I won’t miss Heroes at all.
when the main death comes is it going to stick beacuse they alaways seem to come back
NBC should just put Heroes out of its misery and try something new next year.
Heroes is still one of the tree best performing shows on NBC, and they are not going to cancel it if the situation don’t change drastically. They will try to give it a fifth and final season.
I must point something out when t comes to the cost. The CW Smallville cost 3.5 million to produce per episode but they are still airing the show for years and it’s not canceled. I am guessing with the budget cuts Heroes has similar costs probably even cheaper. So if Smallville makes profit with his ratings Heroes can do the same thing too. I don’t think the profit is going to bee the issue for Heroes (not to forget Dollhouse is making profit too even with does ratings).
The only thing that can crush Heroes is the ratings. If they stabilize NBC will probably keep it.
If you want a European perspective for the “International Revenues” argument – Heroes is doing alright over here while Law and Order show are running out of steam oddly CI has been more popular in Europe than in the US (comparatively of course). It is also my impression than DVD sales are decent for Heroes while Law and Order are perpetually on clearance sale. That being said Heroes did a lot better before the infamous season 2 “Anti-Hero” twist and I have heard some grumblings about Sylar (in the vein of “time to get rid of him”). If they were to do a similar stunt as season 2 they would probably kill the fanbase.
I do hope they can turn the tide but I suspect it will be hard to keep the show fresh having already pulled that many upsets they would have to reinvent/adjust the premise pretty soon.
I agree with every argument in this post except the “saving face” one. I realize stability is important, but Heroes used to be a hit with the critics — and is not a complete joke with the critics and the media in general. NBC keeping it on because they have nothing better to show is making the network seem like a joke on the whole. That’d factor in when/if they decide to do an overhaul.
Or so I hope, anyway. Used to be a major fan, now the show is just painful.
Just wanted to add that Heroes was big in Australia numbers wise for season 1 and 2 but had a big drop-off for season 3 and was pushed to very late at night. I imagine no channel in Australia is willing to pay much at all to air the show. It sounds like similar things have happened around the world (Germany above) so I am beginning to wonder if the ratings woes at home are similarly an indication of international sales problems as well.
Heroes I agree is still one of NBC’s best drama performers (note* that in my opinion Heroes is at 8pm against more competition,whereas L&O:SVU is at 9pm against less competition) and indeed I didn’t enjoy the double premiere of Heroes (The dialogue had reached a all new level of awful but so are all the Kring episodes – the very first pilot episode would have been Heroes if Bryan Fuller and Jesse Alexander had not stepped in. Also the character had reached 1 dimensial, especially Peter, Claire and Hiro). Though I do have to say that I hav’nt finished the third episode yet but it is reallly good (much better than most of the 3rd season episodes and indeed 2nd season) and hopefully the next episode written by Bryan Fuller will be just as good (which is why I do think that is why the 5th episode received a bump in the ratings). Hopefully Heroes goes up because I still love it (despite its faults).
Save the following
Heroes (Mid-Season Only)
Law & Order
Law & Order:SVU
The Office
30 Rock
See how the Mid-Season Shows do
Pick The BEST out of 10/11 Pilots and as what Julia said…PROMOTE THE HELL OUT OF THEM.If that doesn`t happen…i will admit that NBC is dead.
@Mike,
What do you mean by “Europe”? There are a lot of different countries in Europe, and they’d all have different TV channels and ratings. Like Mackey said, in Germany the show is a flop – and we’re only at the first half of Season 3.
NBC sure wants to pretend the show is still successful internationally, but I’ve never seen any evidence of this.
I think that NBC can only really save Heroes for Monday 8pm, I my mind they should then launch the J.J. Abrams new spy show at Monday 9pm (Heroes veiwers would be interested in that show) also it would give Monday 9pm a new fast action, critical hit (if the show is good, which I’m sure everyone is expecting). Although at this time the only show that stands in Heroes way is Chuck, the show will proberly pull in similiar numbers (unless the long break has caused a massive loss in veiwers) and is cheaper, but two spy shows might be a bit much, although Chuck is cheaper it cannot compare to Heroes DVD sales or international strength (in comparison to chuck, Heroes has waned internationally recently). I think it depends solely on how Heroes does now (along with the rest of the NBC shows, even the comedies at 8pm which may both need replacing) and how NBC feels the show will do next year. Its needs to hold its audience (and hopefully grow
).
Also, why is NBC keeping Heroes in a harder timeslot at 8pm where it can attract less veiwers (and is defiently hurt by House) when it could be at 9pm, with already dead show Trauma at 8pm? ?????
Fin,
Pairing J.J. Abrams’ new show with Chuck would be a far better fit than Heroes. Pairing two same-genre shows on the same night would NOT be too much, as they are likely to have the same audience anyway, so one leading in to the other would be of far greater benefit to both.
heroes cant be saved nbc should let it run out its current epsisode order then move on.
Anna Heroes is (currently) an international success at least from the point of view of NBC Universal, they make a small fortune from the international license fees. Whether they’ll still be making that fortune when it comes time to renew those deals I have no idea because I haven’t been following the shows fall from grace internationally and don’t even know if it has. For example I think its still very popular in Japan.
I Still Realy Love Heroes, Season 4 is amazing so far, I hope they keep it going. Season 2 ruined everything, until now, Heores is A+ I’m sticking with it. I LOVE HEROES!!!
This has been covered in the comments a bit already, but the biggest red flag concerning ‘Heroes’ is that the show seems to be in creative turmoil, and specifically the fact that Tim Kring is still in charge. He obviously thinks he’s doing brilliant work and it’s the viewers’ fault if the ratings are down (remember his semi-infamous “viewers are saps” comments?), and somehow he’s been able to pass all the blame onto his staff (Loeb and Alexander, for example) and say “we messed up this year but next year will be better” every time. Fuller joining the staff and leaving almost immediately should have been a major omen for NBC, but nothing really seemed to change.
I’m not sure how these things work (read: I have no clue if NBC can fire Kring/change his position), but I’ve been in the work world long enough to know that people who go through underlings like toiler paper constantly claim “it was everyone else’s fault” are usually the root of the problem. Heroes isn’t going to get better until he’s gone, although it might be too late to save at this point.
Getting rid of Tim Kring and giving the show some sort of major overhaul would be the only thing that would get me watching again. Of course I doubt that’ll happen, so the show will continue limping toward its long overdue demise. And I bet that final episode will about as fulfilling as the infamous season 1 finale.
I’m all for a total reboot of NBC, leave Leno on at 10PM next season and really develop the 8-10PM hours. I would only keep The Biggest Loser, The Apprentice, The Office, and maybe L&O SVU and 30 Rock. They need to spend big money in developing great shows with great casts, and exceptional writing. Some big named stars would be a good thing for the new shows (Look at the success ABC is having with Cougar Town (Courtney Cox) and Modern Family (Ed O’Neil.) I would also over develop with shows ready to go if some new shows aren’t performing well (To Avoid the situation they are in now with Trauma, and Mercy.) If this works for 8-10PM next season, they can ditch Conan and give back The Tonight Show to Leno and do the same Development Plan for 10PM the following season(Or even find a better performing non-scripted show to replace Leno’s 10PM slot)
“They need to spend big money in developing great shows with great casts, and exceptional writing. Some big named stars would be a good thing for the new shows (Look at the success ABC is having with Cougar Town (Courtney Cox) and Modern Family (Ed O’Neil.)”
I think Community actually fits that description well, it has a very strong cast and is very well-written. It did well when it was after The Office, it just got shoved to the lonely 8:00 slot way, waaay too early. With some seasoning from The Office I think Community could have been a real hit. They should have moved 30 Rock to 8:00 or 8:30 instead, that show has had enough seasoning and can stand on its own two feet now I think.
But yeah the way I see it, it’s key to keep Leno during an overhaul, as it maintains a steady inflow of cash without much work, and that eases the transition stage. Now they only have two hours a night to rebuild, three hours all at once is too much. And unlike, say, turning 10PM over to the affiliates, it’s very much reversible in the future, so if they got 8-10 back up to snuff they can venture back into the 10PM hour.
I think everyone is wrong with how NBC messed up with Community. I think the problem isn’t that they didn’t give it enough of a chance behind The Office, the problem is that when you move a show, no matter where, it’s going to have a hard time keeping its audience. NBC would have done better if they did a huge promotional push before the premiere, and started Community off at 8.
Season 4 has shown vast, VAST improvement. I can see ratings nudging up slightly. It doesn’t deserve to be cancels if it keeps going like it has been this season.
I’m now seeing talk and evidence that NBC had spread news and pictures of the impending lesbian kiss you have in that Heroes picture. To me , this reeks of petty exploitism. The ratings didn’t change that much either. Lame.
Heroes does not do particuarly well here in Australia and has been pushed back to late-night primetime here i.e. 10.30 or 11.30pm timeslots; it premiered huge to over 2 million viewers and steadily dropped from there; it is no lucky to do 450,000 viewers in the late night timeslot (which is great for late night, but a mighty fall from grace) I can provide links to Australia ratings data if interested.
I can’t see it being picked up….I’ve got a feeling that it’ll finish the season at around a 2.0 (not the finale, obv!), which can’t be good because it’s a very expensive show.
You also have to look at the trend for Heroes, and it’s not good. If it continues to shed audience like it has, it will be at or below a 2.0 next season. That’s just not good enough.
NBC really needs to clean house and start again. Save The Biggest Loser, The Office, 30 Rock & SVU, and try again. It’s got very little to lose at this point. It could air Dateline across the board and get similar ratings to what it’s getting now. Before the season, I didn’t think that JL would be a big disaster for them, and I was kind of right – it’s hovering slight above expectations. But the rest of the line-up – wow! Come March and April, during the heavy repeat season, we’re going to see NBC losing to Univision in demos – perhaps in the mid 1.0s.
HEROES seems to be aware of its DVR numbers, and has tried extending the cast into the breaks in the most recent ep (similar to the Bud Light / SNL deal, though more clumsily executed and without the value-add of the dress-rehearsal footage). On the one hand, it suggests some thinking about how to deal with ad-skippers; on the other hand, that’s not something you’d likely see from a show confident in its baseline numbers.
There’s a question of whether international licensing is what it used to be, given that diehard fans will seek out digital sources for the US first-runs if there’s any kind of gap between broadcast in their home countries — not for nefarious reasons, but in order to avoid online spoilage, or to participate in fan discussions. (You’ll even find fan-generated subtitled versions for non-English audiences.) With the splintering of audiences across multiple platforms, the period of cable/sat nets abroad thinking that they’d trumped OTA opposition by getting the first-runs in their domestic markets has passed, and public service broadcasters (i.e. BBC) would sooner export formats than pay what they used to for US drama.
As for HEROES, I think it’s done after this season, especially if it keeps getting pasted by HOUSE.
Seidman, I just wanted to commend you on a very well written article! It’s not one of your weekly columns, but it’s clear that you put a lot of thought and effort into it! Great job!
Heroes in Belgium , especially the dutch speaking part of it.
Heroes started at 250.000 viewers for season 1 for estimated 6 miljon potentenial viewers . Season 3 averaged about 100.000 viewers . Both as in the USA it probably scores still good in target 15-44 , the target of tv station VT4.
In comparision Lost , 150.000, The Mentalist 300.000, CSI Miami 250.000 on the same channel VT4.
In The Netherlands Heroes is even smaller , last two seasons were broadcast in the summer entirely because it is cheaper to show series in the summer.
As people here state, heroes is not doing well overseas AT ALL. Actually, it’s more of a laughing stock why it is still around. Mostly because people in Europe don’t care jack about what NBC is or is not going through, the show itself is horrible nowadays
Mackey,
Torchwood gets better ratings than Heroes on RTL2 because it’s a better show.
Heroes jumped the shark after season 1 and it’s never improved – it needs to be cancelled at this point.
@lutherblissett: The problem heroes is facing, along with a slack of other shows, is that people cannot watch it legally throughout Europe. NBC does not allow online streaming outside of USA and so far no platform has opened itself up to find a way to do it by the book so that NBC has revenue out of it.
Unfortunately, plenty of online links appear almost instantaneously after an episode. Most remarkable is how high definition of it all is – It’s even better quality than waiting for the broadcast over here. The main problem is that it’s months between the original airing and the ones in Europe. It’s not that we want to hurt the network or cancel any shows, it’s that those media are STILL not accepting that these mediums have CHANGED and do not offer us any way of watching.
I would gladly go through a couple of minutes of ads to be able to stream Heroes when it goes on-air in USA, for instance, but as it stands, the only option open is to watch it ‘illegally’. Judging by those numbers nvl throws up for a country like Belgium, you can have a guess how many watch on TV and how many online, eh?
A smaller cast would be a big boost, I think.
When a show resorts to the old Lesbian/girl-on-girl story line its clearly Jumped The Shark. The whole Clair thing was done purely for cheap shock value. HEROES has become an drifting pointless mess. Why I still watch it all is only because Im curious how absurd it will get. Heck, I speed thru 90% of it on DVR. Heroes has gone downhill since the sub par Season 1 finale. Now its like a smoking race car wreck sliding across the finish line – the only question being – did the driver survive – if so how Fubar’d is he?
Given the current state of NBC, it’s NOT nuts. HEROES just might be renewed for a fifth season. (even tho the show has been creatively bankrupt since season 2)
Torchwood might get better ratings than Heroes on NBC.
OK, probably not, but maybe on Fox.
The photo for this article is offensive…. couldn’t you have used something else? Anyway the show should be canceled because of how poor the ratings are but we know how NBC is about keeping low rated shows. My guess is it will last another season (but they will shorten the next season to 13 eps or so) then get canned.
In the UK, while average numbers for Heroes have dropped slightly over the years, it’s probably, after CSI, one of the most popular US series. Over here, House and NCIS are not anywhere near the ratings powerhouses they are here, there not really popular at all.
I went into a store the other day, in the DVD charts, Heroes s3 was number 1 while House was being sold off cheap.
LostAtSea
I still enjoy Heroes- I mean Season 3 did throw people off and i blame that for viewers turning away-
They need to do something big, and promote the hell out of it to get some people back on board-
Still undecided if i want a 5th season- I like the show a lot- But only if its going to get better- If not i would be satisfied with it wrapping up with the 4th season-
Heroes is my favorite TV show, ever!
Shut up everyone who says Heroes should be cancel!!!
someone knows the sales of season 1 and season 2 dvds?
@R
“They need to do something big, and promote the hell out of it to get some people back on board-”
Oh, they did. Problem is, they considered “lesbian kiss with Hayden Panettiere” to be “something big”. They did promote the hell out of it. How many interviews did Hayden give, talking about the kiss and the relationship? How many promo trailers featured the scene?
The problem is that Heroes’ creators have clearly lost touch with their fanbase. They’ve screwed up with Season 3 by making a bunch of inane plot decisions, destroying all inner logic their show possessed, and haven’t even attempted to turn the ship around this season – instead, they pile on more twists and mythologies, and try to distract the viewers with stunt-casting, lesbian kisses and an overload of Zachary Quinto and Hayden Panettiere, even though most people got sick of these two people and their forces central position some time during the previous season.
I don’t know what ratings are, but here in Canada, it’s being bumped by House and Lie To Me.
So it’s on at 10pm Mondays.
It has been bumped by 24 in past, but that’s a ratings hit here.
I’m pretty sure it’s ratings aren’t great anymore here as well.
There no denying this current season (S4) has been a huge improvement, i think it might be better than Season one. Characters are becoming relatable again. It’s not just one flashy power after another, it’s actually GOOD. & I also blame the writers for messing up on S3, but heroes is getting way less than it deserves RIGHT now.
I hope it picks up, cause its getting really good.
I say Re-new it…I am a huge fan of Heores… I love the show!!!!
I haven’t watched Heroes since season 1, given that it has sucked royally since then.
But judging from the photo in this article, am I right in seeing that Claire has now been given a lesbian storyline?
Oh brother….A perfect sign that a show is losing steam…the requisite post-jumped-the-shark “lesbian kiss” episode.
They did it on Roseanne, they did it on Friends and now they’re doing it on Heroes.
And you can’t say it’s not a gimmick because no network TV show has ever had one of their male straight characters kiss another man for ratings.
What is the cost of Heroes?
bogie24@gmail.com
Also, Seidman please edit and watch your grammar.
Oh, I mean watch you’re grammer.