Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 11, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Til Death (S), (F) | 0.25 |
| Brothers (F) | 0.28 |
| Dollhouse (F), (P) | 0.30 |
| Fringe | 0.70 |
| Bones (P) | 0.88 |
| Lie To Me (P) | 0.92 |
| Glee (P) | 1.02 |
| American Dad (P) | 1.08 |
| The Simpsons (P) | 1.29 |
| The Cleveland Show (P) | 1.33 |
| Family Guy (P) | 1.49 |
| House | 1.80 |
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Fox’s Thursday ratings this fall with Bones and Fringe are way up over last fall (when they programmed dreck). Still, on that brutally competitive night, the ratings for the individual shows aren’t much to write home about and fans of Fringe are (not unreasonably) a bit worried. Fringe is at least in some danger, but I still believe Fox had expectations for the night that are close to what they got, and that the show will return next season.
Dollhouse will air during the November sweeps period, but even Joss Whedon is realistic about the prospects for the show. Enjoy the remaining 10 episodes.
10/22 Update: Dollhouse, ‘Til Death and Brothers have been pulled from the Fox schedule for the November sweeps period. Dollhouse will return with double episodes on Friday’s in December. Brothers will move to Sundays. No word yet on the return of ‘Til Death.
It’s highly unlikely that ‘Til Death or Brothers survives until next season as well. ‘Til Death’s producers (Sony) will have the episodes they need for syndication, and presumably won’t have an incentive to give the series away to Fox for nearly free again, and Brothers ratings are just plain awful. Still, because those are the only two open half hour slots till football is over, Fox is in a tricky situation if they want to pull just one of them early unless they double up on the other, which wouldn’t seem to increase the ratings either.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think it’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I can’t believe your headline didn’t incorporate wordplay. Here’s a show called Fringe and it’s on the fringe of being cancelled. I mean, c’mon.
Too bad FOX has decided to kill American Dad. They’re moving it to 7:30 mid-season.
I’m sure they will use that line eventually but for now I think it’s too early to tell. With it being a JJ show in a tough slot with a good amount of fans still watching on DVR I hope it’ll all be enough.
I think it gets a pass unless the ratings sink further. It’s going to last until at least the 3rd season, but beyond that who knows. FOX is in a tricky situation. It could toss it to Friday which would spell death pretty much immediately, but aside from that there aren’t many other timeslots available.
“Too bad FOX has decided to kill American Dad. They’re moving it to 7:30 mid-season.”
Yeah, and they ar currently producing two new animated shows, so RIP American Dad. By far the best Seth show.
I don’t think moving it to 7:30 means it’s dead. American Dad is pretty much recycled Family Guy jokes, so I’m sure it isn’t expensive to make.
I HIGHLY doubt Brothers will get a back 9 order. Look for its initial run to be it for the show.
For FOX, all your red shows are the ones that WILL NOT make it past this season.
Not worried at all about Fringe. It’s all about stealing market share, not being #1 (or #2-3 either). FOX is jumping for joy this season. November books have always been horrible.
you are not considering the all new episodes of brothers that fox airs sunday’s at 7pm, which actually get arround 1.7 points
Bones were renewed for two more seasons last year, so is there a possibility that it won’t be coming back next year? and if there is (there probably is) possibility it won’t, how bad it has to do rating wise to be canceled?
I like this show.
Antonio, there has only been one new episode of Brothers aired on Sunday, and in the finals it was at 0.8, just like on Friday.
Not surprised by that AD news – look back months ago and I thought any CS success would lead to AD’s departure. (Disclaimer: I (along with most TV critics I’ve read) prefer AD over the rest of the MacFarlane shows. That still doesn’t make it likelier to live.)
And again, Fringe’s survival (and timeslot) is a complicated mix of 24, Lie To Me, Human Target, and Past Life’s chances in Spring 10 & Fall 10. It probably gets a third season, but I’m not putting money on it.
It’s interesting that the best success NBCU has had for several years is here on FOX, isn’t it
Fringe, não concordo com a Fox de colocar essa série às quinta-feira, está caindo muito a audiência, porém acredito sim que a série será renovada para 2010-2011
Go Fringe!!
@Dennis:
Where has it been said that American Dad! is being moved?
What would its index value be if those bottom three weren’t factored in.
Do the added dvr ratings mean anything to the future of fringe? Why don’t they just move it to any night other than thursday?
David, AD is moving to 7:30 in the new year replaced by Sons of Tucsons, Fox annouced this is May.
FOX knew they put it in the firing line when they put FRINGE on thursdays
Be a shame to cancel it when they knew the numbers wouldnt be favorable.
The only worse thing they could have done is put it on fridays and put it in the grave early
this way its just slower
i really like this show its very x filesesque
i hope it keeps goin like castle
@Theoacme
You’re right. “House” is produced by NBC Universal Media Studios and yet it’s doing better than any NBC show.
Looks like this is the first fall in possibly ever where FOX hasnt pulled or cancelled any series. There are candidates (Dollhouse and Brothers) but it seems FOX likes both series enough to atleast burn off all 13 episodes, and Til Death will survive just because of syndication. New drama Glee has been given a full year, as well as sophomore Fringe and likely Lie to Me. FOX has found success with SYTYCD airing fall, as well as their Monday/Thursday drama combos and Sunday animated block. This looks like FOX’s best fall performance in a while.
Rich – Thats true, FOX is trying to develop a new single camera comedy by convienently sandwiching it between The Simpsons and Family Guy, pushing Cleveland to 9:30 and switching American Dad to 7:30. Like how Malcolm in the Middle fit in with the other comedies on sunday, Sons has similiar humor to the animated series.
My guess on cancellations
Dollhouse will air out all 13 episodes (probably doubling up some fridays) and end on December 18 or January 8.
Brothers will air out all 13 episodes and likely finish on December 11.
Til Death will likely shift to sundays at 7, to burn off its remaining fourth season.
With these three cancellations FOX has room for a couple of dramas on fridays at 8 and 9. Likely candidates are Lie to Me, Past Life and Kicthen Nightmares.
I think for the winter FOX can be placed over the top if they use this schedule
Monday
24
Lie to me
Tuesday
American Idol
Glee
Wedensday
American Idol
Fringe
Thursday
House
New Show
Friday
Bones
HK
I don’t want to be that jerky guy who complains about the way people run a website that I don’t pay for
but…
Back when the R/C index cane out this season there was talk in one of the threads that we could get a “trending up / trending down” arrow to show the trajectory of a show. There is a big different between a 0.8 or .9 on the way up and that same number but trending down.
Ever since my hopes got raised by the creators of the site on that thread I have eagerly anticipated (for the past two weeks) seeing this indicator in the R/C index.
Again, I don’t mean to complain about the fantastic service and website you guys are providing me for free, but any word on the rollout of this feature?
^^^They won’t move House off Monday, or Bones to Friday for that matter.
Past Life is getting the Tuesday post-Idol slot (I’m assuming Past Life is having a short first season, since Idol on Tuesday is two hours most of the time) and Human Target the Wednesday post-Idol from January to March, with Glee taking that slot back March to May.
I think Fringe’s numbers aren’t weak enough for a cancellation per se, but they may change their strategy. Cut down from a 22 episode season to a 13-16 episode one, and run it continuously either in the fall or in the midseason. That way it can kind of share a timeslot with another middling show.
But I think Fox’s schedule is too crowded to have Fringe take up a full season slot anymore, with those weak numbers. It could keep Thursday at 9 in the fall, run continuously like I said, and then Hell’s Kitchen gets that slot midseason, where it did so well last year.
zeker, re: up arrow/down arrow. Still possible, considering alternatives on how/if to do it, but no promises.
Fair enough. Thanks.
Here’s my schedule
Mondays
8:00 House
9:00 24
Tuesdays
8:00 American Idol
9:00 Hell’s Kitchen (February-May)
Wednesdays
8:00 American Idol
9:00 Human Target(Jan-March)/Glee (April-May)
Thursdays
8:00 Bones
9:00 Fringe
Fridays
8:00 Lie to Me (Jan-April)/Past Life(April-May)
9:00 Kitchen Nightmares
Sundays
7:00 Til Death
7:30 American Dad
8:00 The Simpsons
8:30 Sons of Tucson
9:00 Family Guy
9:30 The Cleveland Show
FOX has 2 new Hell’s Kitchen seasons, so its likely they will stick that on Tuesdays at 9 after Idol. Past Life has a 7 episode order and its highly unlikely to air Tuesdays post Idol so my guess is maybe Fridays at 8 around March. With no other slots available, its highly likely that Lie to Me gets moved to Fridays at 8 in place of the comedies. FOX can stick a new season of Kitchen Nightmares Fridays at 9 to fill the Dollhouse void. As previously announced by FOX, Mondays and Thursdays should stay as planned and Human Target/Glee should share the post Idol wednesday. With the new Sons of Tucson, sundays should be as FOX’s original midseason with the likely addition of burn off Til Death.
Mumbo – Past Life’s order being cut may not be a good sign. FOX also may be hesitant to launch 2 new dramas in the post Idol slots. While Human Target has a premiere date, Past Life is only tentatively scheduled for Tuesdays at 9. My bet is that Past Life will begin airing on Fridays (liekly paired with Lie to Me) A likely series for the tuesday post Idol slot would be Hell’s Kitchen. FOX could always make for a double Gordan Ramsey fridays and air Hell’s Kitchen at 8 and Kicthen Nightmares at 9, but airing Hell’s on fridays would hurt the series, but FOX could care less about Nightamres however. Around a few more weeks until FOX announces Midseason.
How many episode of Fringe has FOX ordered?
I don’t think Fringe will get a 3rd season
FOX has learned quite a bit ago that a show premiering after AI doesn’t guarantee a hit. Look at Wedding Bells, New Amsterdam, etc. Both shows got an initial premiere after Idol, and both tanked. That said, they know keeping PROMISING shows (not always NEW shows) after Idol translates to longer success. So I would be looking at Glee staying put, and Lie to Me getting a post Idol slot after the new shows few episodes air (if they all do, which is assuming a lot).
FOX will NOT move House to Fridays. Nu uh, no way. Not original eps at least (they had MASSIVE success during the strike on Fridays with House reruns).
Same goes with Bones. For the first 2-3 seasons, they kept threatening moving it to Fridays mid-season, but never did. Now that the show is proving to be VERY solid on Thursdays, don’t look for it to go anywhere.
I don’t think Fringe will necessarily get cancelled. The show has JJ Abrams name attached to it and I don’t think the network will cancel it unless virtually no one is watching it. That’s just my take. I love the show so I hope it doesn’t get an NBC premature death.
Nick- Don’t listen to these naysayers. Fringe is fine. It’s all about marketshare, and FOX is succeeding this season, with Fringe’s help. If anything, FOX may ask them to not be so expensive; but other than budget cuts, they need this show where it is. FOX does itself no favors to keep flip-flopping Thursday @ 9 shows. It needs something stable, and with Bones as an amazing lead-in, they are going to want to keep that lineup for at leas another year.
Fringe is in a tough time slot. Going against CSI, Greys and the Office aint easy. If the ratings slowly start to rise, it will get a Season 3. If it stays around current levels, its 50-50. If it falls under 6 million its probably dead.
They may try moving it in the Spring if they really want it to succeed.
Put one of the American Idols on Thursdays. This will effectively kill CSI, which I stopped watching three years ago because it just got old(and I use to love this series). It will put a dent into Greys Lobotomys’ numbers. This will give Fox momentum going into the weekend with their shows. They are “top-heavy” at the beginning of the week. And someone in the Fox executive suite should seriously consider a GOOD comedy series, not crap like Brothers or Til Death.
Check out all networks. They are ALL “top-heavy” because that’s when there are more eyeballs on TVs.
Fringe needs to be moved out of Thursday night regarding the 8/9 slot. CSI might have ticked down a bit but its still strong. Grey is strong with young females. The Office is also still doing well with the young demos. Just too much aggressive competition for the night.
Fringe needs to be moved out of Thursday. Might have done better on Monday night after House, since Lie To Me is modest but nothing to crow about and I kind of enjoy Lie To Me. Needs an Idol boost again. Don’t give it over to another Sci-Fi show.. Glee could work either the competion or the results show of Idol.
I just don’t see Fox cancelling Fringe. It has a loyal fan base that’s fairly large. The numbers for that time period are better than last year. It also does well on DVR viewership. More importantly, I think Fox is happy with the quality of the show and sees potential for it to be a money maker in the cable/syndication market.
Just move it back to Tuesday since it’s a wasteland.
I like Fringe and watch it weekly so I hope it doesn’t get cancelled.
Audrey – Im pretty sure Fringe has 22 episodes. Im sure its safe for a third year. FOX is really trying to develop dramas and with powerhouses Bones and House doing great for the network, they are trying their best to save Fringe and Lie to Me so I dont think FOX would want to dump either this quickly. I strongly think Fringe willl get a third year. Freshman Glee and Cleveland are already getting second years (though Glee isnt confirmed). FOX has everything for fall set, with DOllhouse and Brothers given end dates, all they have to do is format their midseason schedule. Mondays (House/24), Tuesdays (Idol/TBA), Wednesdays (Idol/Human Target and Glee), Thursdays (Bones/Fringe) and Sundays (Simpsons/Cleveland/Family Guy/American Dad) are already in place, FOX just needs to figure out fridays from Jan 29-May and Tuesdays post Idol slot.
FOX here’s an idea, instead of airing Til Death repeats sundays, air original Seaosn 3 episodes, you can burn them off and because their new episodes maybe they can generate interest.