Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 18, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.49 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.68 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.71 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.72 |
| Community | 0.85 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.90 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.91 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.07 |
| The Office (P) | 1.49 |
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Mercy and Trauma are both certain to be canceled by the end of the season. Which will go first? Conventional wisdom is that Trauma’s high cost gets it yanked first, but many things can influence that.
Community’s average continues to decline, both it and Parks & Recreation have to be regarded as cancel-worthy, but there is a chance amidst all the carnage this season that NBC will have to hold their noses and bring back some way below average shows. Prime candidates for desperate moves like that are half hour sitcoms.
30 Rock’s premiere was hardly stellar, it did no better post-Office than Community, but it’s in no danger as long as it stays there.
Although SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it was limited run, I’m not including it.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I have no interest in an ER replacement haha
More that sink the better Chuck looks.
I can’t see why Trauma won’t be yanked first. It’s doing worse,it costs more, real EMS workers are complaining,etc. The joke is that it’s living up to its name.
i think mercy is definately developing into a quality show and i dont think its ratings are anything nbc can moan about.
Nobody watches 30 Rock or Mad Men, yet the clueless TV critics continue to gush over these programs. Why are there still working TV critics? We believe them even less than a used car salesman. If NBC was smart (and it isn’t) it would chuck the entire network and go dark. The entire corporate management staff is one big joke and makes bank CEOs look respectable.
Community isn’t going anywhere…NBC had to know it was crushing its ratings by moving it to 8pm. It will get a fair chance to prove its worth.
Is P&R supposed to be red while Community only orange? Community would be at P&R’s level if not lower if the post Office eps aren’t included and they don’t seem to matter in its prospects I think. Plus P&R is produced by NBC while Community isn’t and has the whole from the makers of the Office thing going for it too.
I’m not saying which colors they should be, but it seems to me like they should either be both red or both orange.
Any idea how much SNF is skewing these results? I mean when they lose football their Sunday #s will likely drop at least in half thereby boosting all other scripted shows relatively to the fall. Is it at all significant or just a very small impact?
makes me mad how they bring all these new shows in and just cancel them…NBC needs to get new shows and stick with them
Brendan, they would stick with them, if the ratings weren’t so horrible.
I agree with Bruce. The NBC heads are making some stupid decisions this year. Other than SVU (which I DVR), no other show on NBC is any good. Just have NBC go dark.
L&O on FRIDAY had 2 million more viewers than the endlessly promoted, awarded, congratulated and fawned over 30 Rock. I know, I know, it’s all about the demo. Still, NBC can’t cancel half their schedule so they might as well leave shows on the air that people are actually watching.
Mercy is just a boring show with incredibly uninteresting characters (which seems to be a trend in the medical shows this season). Get rid of it… STAT!
I think “Trauma” goes before “Mercy.” While it’s 18-49 rating is nothing to write home about (and yes, I know that is the most important factor) it is regularly coming in second in its time slot. I think NBC may continue to give it a chance.
It seems almost certain that Trauma will be pulled first. It has stuck at a 1.9 for three weeks while Mercy has only pulled a 1.8 once, usually it’s been higher. I don’t think mercy will see a season 2, but it will definitely last longer than Trauma.
Trauma will be gone by Feb. Mercy will likely get to 18 or so episodes. P&R and Community will air until the end of the season then they may or may not be going. I have a feeling NBC will stick with their Thursday line-up for now.
People whining about Chuck… you can’t compare it to how these shows are doing. It’s yet to air in this climate — it will be lucky to pull 2.0+ in the demo whenever it returns.
Sorry – L&O had 1.32 million more viewers than 30 Rock last week, not 2 million.
The NBC schedule is so weak that the majority of their Monday to Friday schedule gets 2.0 and less in the demos. It is actually easier to pick out the ones that do better than 2.0: Heroes, Biggest Loser and Leno on Tuesdays, SVU on Wednesday and the Office and 30 Rock on Thursdays. That is it, 6 hours out of 15, leaving aside Leno, 5 hours out of 10, there is going to have to be some sort of a cull of underperforming shows, some point where the network says if you can’t do at least this much then you are gone. How do you go into sweeps month in November with such bad results and not expect the affiliates to be up in arms.
Trauma is the obvious choice, it’s ratings are not that much better than L&O who is stuck out on Friday nights. But those involved with Mercy, Parks and Community can’t be sleeping too well these days either.
NBC desperately needs to re-tool its lineup. It’s clear that The Office is the flagbearer and everything around it is hemmoraging viewers.
Personally, I’d be worried about 30 Rock. Yes. I know the show is ‘critically acclaimed’ – but what does that mean when viewers don’t watch? (Oh right. It’s a show about people who write TV shows, and it wins a lot of awards because the awards are given out by people who write TV shows, so they relate. Emmys are such crap.) But losing almost two million viewers and going from a 4.0 to a 3.0 in the 18-49 age group following the office? OUCH!
I want to check if Community performed better in that time slot than 30 Rock did – but it’s hard to find past thursdays numbers on this site. If it did, then they need to move Community back, ship Parks and Rec and 30 Rock off to Fridays so the ‘critics’ can enjoy the crap out of them, and put Chuck into the Thursday 8pm slot to lead into The Office and Community.
Id admit i sometimes wish they would end the only 2 shows on NBC I watch (Heroes and community) that way i can be done with the network and the ratings problem it will likely always have.
Why do the idiots only come to comment on NBC? Bruce, they’re a struggling network in an increasingly competitive environment, giving up is stupid.
I’m basically sure they own’t cancel Community. Despite the numbers, it is their top performing freshman show this fall. Mercy is the top performing new drama, as bad as it’s doing.
If they end up cancelling all of their new fall shows, they’ll look even worse.
Parks & Rec is their only survivor from last season’s disastrous line-up of new shows, but I don’t know if that will do anything to help it now.
Mootrain–If 30 Rock can maintain a 3.0 or better demo they don’t have anything to worry about.
lol, Mad Men isn’t watched? Sure, its not the highest rated show out there, but it does well for AMC, which is the only thing that matters.
NBC is more colorful.
And the color is RED!
Parks and Recreation is much better this season than last season. Many people share this opinion. It should be on at 9:30 while 30 Rock kicks off the night for NBC.
also, you should look at how Mercy is doing relative to last year’s programming Wed at 8:00.
Sorry, “30 Rock” has to be the most smug and most highly overrated show on NBC since “Just Shoot Me”. I guess I have to be (or want to be) in the entertainment industry to like it.
I’d be curious to see how the index changes w/o including Leno to drag down the network average.
I didn’t expect to watch “Mercy,” based on the previews, but I happened to see it on a Saturday night rebroadcast a few weeks ago and thought it had potential. I’ve watched it the last couple of weeks and I enjoy it. I hope it gets a chance to mature into an even better show.
I might add that I find “Trauma” unwatchable. That one you can take whenever you’re ready…
30 Rock just won a few Emmy’s. Networks don’t cancel shows the same year they win important Emmy categories, do they?
I don’t know about Just Shoot Me, Ozzie – watching it in syndication now (having missed it first run), it’s better than the rest of “Must See TV” was – except for ER, of course…
…and it’s better than most reality tripe (not hard, to be certain, but still…)
Trauma – Kelly Brackett has pulled the plug, and Dixie is pulling the sheet over it’s head, while Gage and DeSoto put away the defibrillator – it’s over…
Mercy – basically, it’s the equivalent of Bob Newhart’s character on ER a few seasons ago – terminal, but about a season’s worth of life left. Here’s hoping a miracle occurs – but only if Greg Pratt is the attending, not Robert Romano…
Law and Order – if it makes it to another season, NBC won’t need a show about the undead. Who was the actor in “Angel” – could he be a new cop next season
Parks and Recreation – repeat after me – “…I am a comedy, and I will not be canceled this season, because I am not “Worst Week”, and I am not on CBS…” Sure, Worst Week had better ratings, but this network would be better off if it were the National Biscuit Company
Community – Three words to keep the show safe – “judicious stunt casting”…
Heroes – Maybe Quiznos could do product placement on the show? Better if they created a show called “Grinders” – reach the 18-34’s, maybe? No matter how I look at it, Heroes is in a bit more danger than its index indicates – not red, but a bit orange…
30 Rock – How about a show within a show, starring Alec Baldwin in Hululand (his Hulu commercial during the Super Bowl was the second best Super Bowl commercial of all time, imo – Tabasco’s mosquito was just better…)? It could only help…
The Office – If Steve Carrell admitted to sexually abusing Elisabeth Smart, and setting up the Henne family whilst seducing the wife, maybe NBC would cancel it – there’s no way it will fall below 1.00, so it’s a lock for next season unless the unthinkable occurs
SVU – some pay cuts, perhaps 5 percent, wouldn’t hurt – but it’s safe enough for now.
Mike, “I’d be curious to see how the index changes w/o including Leno to drag down the network average.”
I’d be curious to see someone else do that work.
I think The Office & 30 Rock are paired well. I hope NBC doesn’t change them up.
NBC = Now Broadcasting Coma’s
Bill, if I had been logging things daily, I would try doing that…
…presumably, you would count it as five separate shows, for purposes of calculating the index?
Bill/Robert
Why not do a quick ‘gut feel’ survey.
Ask contributors to pick their favourite network and then publish the results.
Also I asked before but it may have been missed is there any way to publish the highest rated cable show in each hour with the overnights?
I would be interesting to see if/how often a cable show is killing a network show.
NBC = Nearly Beyond Comical
Mercy and Trauma are pretty much the best new shows on broadcast TV this season. I’m not sure what is wrong with people when they pan these shows, while pretending like shows like Bones, the middle, cougar town, numb3rs, ghost whisperer, two and a half men, lie to me, cold case, all of fox’s animated shows, are not completely boring and formulais most of the time.
I also like Mercy and Trauma. The Leno factor is kiling NBC.
CHUCK
I was glad to see “Trauma” and “Mercy” get critically-ravaged. It’s about time people associated with the overrated “Friday Night Lights” get some reviews more representative of what they turn out. (I do at least give Liz Heldens credit for having the good sense to invest in a tripod.)
With that said, as long as “Mercy” keeps winning its time slot and staying low-cost and as long as Gail Berman can shut her big fat mouth, it’s probably not going anywhere. I know there isn’t much difference between the two shows’ 18-49 figures, but sometimes, it’s all about cost, expectations, promises to advertisers, and what the network is used to in the time slot. And, you know, keeping Berman in the producer chair and not the network chair, so the plug doesn’t get pulled 5 seconds after the show premieres.
Cancel Mercy! Michelle already has a home on Gossip Girl!
I still do not believe Law and order will be cancelled. Not when it got a 1.6 last friday in the demos… If the next few weeks law and Order keeps the decent demos it will be fine and will get out of the danger zone. I expect law and order to be back for season 21.
Luckily for me Community is NBC’s highest-rated freshman show (that’s no accomplishment at all, I know) and a half hour comedy, so it has a chance of survival. Not only that, but the filming takes place entirely within a school – the only outdoor stuff is on the school campus – so I imagine the budget isn’t that high despite the cast.
I’m just hoping NBC decides they want to keep at least their top freshman show. C’mon, NBC, Community and The Office are the reasons I’m sticking around.
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“I want to check if Community performed better in that time slot than 30 Rock did – but it’s hard to find past thursdays numbers on this site. If it did, then they need to move Community back, ship Parks and Rec and 30 Rock off to Fridays so the ‘critics’ can enjoy the crap out of them, and put Chuck into the Thursday 8pm slot to lead into The Office and Community.”
Community pulled about a 2.9 behind The Office, so a tick lower than 30 Rock, but The Office was a few ticks lower the first three weeks of the season than it is now, so it pretty much balances out. The thing is 30 Rock’s much more established than Community, so it could survive a move out from under The Office – or any timeslot change at all for that matter – much better than Community can/did.
30 Rock does seem to be suffering a bit from the end of the Tina Fey/Sarah Palin effect though, just like SNL is.
Chuck would pull the same 2.0-2.2s that the two half-hour comedies are pulling Thursday at 8:00 now, that wouldn’t be a positive move at all. It would get totally killed by Survivor and Flash Forward, just like the shows already there.
Trauma is leaving a hole on Monday nights and that’s what Chuck is going to fill.
Geez. NBC went from being a powerhouse to below FOX in ratings. They need some really good new shows. I like L&O but it has been on too long in my opinion. 5 or more years ago, NBC needed to have developed new hit shows which they didn’t to replace their aging ones.
Chuck may have not premiered yet, but after it does, it will soon join its counterparts in the red.
NBC has shot itself in the foot by airing Leno. What it has done was effectively eliminate desperately needed maneouvering room in their schedule for their shows. Right now, they can’t do anything by locking themselves into a two-hour per night lineup and expect to get much beyond 4th place. They need the flexibility in their lineup to be able to add and move shows around in an effort to find and build strength. The best that the current claustrophobic approach to their programming can do is only continue to see them stagnate or lose even more ground. If NBC is to create any kind of impact on the audience next season, then they should do it by scrapping Leno and going full blast with a regular 22-hour lineup of first-run shows, no encore airings at all, meaning reclaiming Saturday as well. They need to make a major splash to get viewers’ attention, even if it means coming up with at least two hours of new programming each night, except Sunday when they’ve got football. Eyeballs need to tune in; once that’s done, the demos will follow, the ad rates will escalate and the network again can begin to hope to see at least second place in the not-too-distant future. I think it’s still possible, but they just have to show that they’re serious about wanting to get there. Going cheap and showing it every night isn’t winning over viewers or demos nor making them get much beyond their self-created inertia.
I still think Trauma gets axed by November sweeps. Community and P&R finish the season (at least) Thursday at 8… maybe beyond if the 18-34 ratings save them. Mercy gets a full season too, if it can stay above that 2.0 line. And L&O gets #21 if it can keep a 1.5 and 2nd place on Fridays.
NBC has so many problems…..
Mercy is a gem on their network that can grow into a hit. Definitely the one new show worth keeping. Heroes is done so no point in keeping that around anymore.
NBC needs to restratigize. Hopefully when Comcast takesover the network will be in a lot better shape in a few years.
I am also of the opinion that Parks & Recreation is better off than Community…it’s had better reviews this season from critics and is produced in house. And yes, the NBC heads would rather send Dan Harmon back to Channel 101 than upset some higher-ups from The Office.
What is with all of the 30 Rock bashing? It’s an absolute hit and any network would love to have it. It doesn’t get a lot of total viewers because the elderly (who pretty much effect the entirety of total viewer numbers) don’t understand the humor. I can’t stand people that say it’s too “inside ballpark”…me and millions of others think 30 Rock is the funniest series on television and we sure don’t work for the entertainment industry…it’s very surreal and if odd-ball/quirky humor isn’t your type of thing, that’s fine. But for those of us that like the weirder moments of programs (say Creed lines on The Office), it’s delectable.
I must say that i think Mercy is one of NBC’s best shows. It is a gem of a show and i think it just needs a bit of time to grow. Trauma is horrible and it should go before Mercy.
I definitely think they should keep Mercy even though I’m not crazy about the show. They pushed it onto the schedule early– I believe it was supposed to be a mid-season replacement. With more episodes, I think they’d be able to work out something very decent. All the ingredients are there, but right now just some elements aren’t working.
Mercy is not on NBC’s shcedule for 10/28/09. Instead it is Monsters VS Aliens. Bad sign right?
Could be because they are on against the World Series.
Every single one of Mercy’s cast is irritating. I tried to watch twice and I want to rip my hair out.
@Susan, that’s not true. Look back at chuck’s numbers from last fall. They look downright impressive compared to NBC today (Started at a 2.7, ended at a 2.6). Sure, it bled a bit mid-season, but it still closed up with a 2.4. While I’m not sure how well Chuck will do when it returns, I’m positive it will stay out of the red, I’m betting it will stay above a 2.0.
Ronnie K–two things “Monsters vs. Aliens” sounds like a programming stunt since it’s Halloween like ABC showing Charlie Brown. Also, the world series is on and lots of shows will either be pre-empted or in reruns.
Thanks Chuck. Didnt realize the World Series was happening. (Not a sports girl)
i think you are wrong on mercy. nbc is keeping it because they have nothing else..
to people saying NBC has nothing else, you’re wrong.
They have several shows lined-up to come in mid-season:
Parenthood, Persons Unknown, The Marriage Ref, Celebrity Apprentice, 100 Questions and of course, Chuck.
I actually Like Community, and Hope it survives, Honesly The Office should be used as a 8PM lead, and have the rest of the sows follow it. Rearanging the schedule might help keep viewers.
According to the Renew / Cancel Index, what would Law and Order ideally need to be at to be out of the red or in the green? Considering Law and Order has a friday slot surely it doesn’t need to get a lot higher than 0.49 to be out of the danger zone on the index. What would be good 0.60? Can someone tell me?
mercy is not gonna get canceled – eventhough the show has low 18-49 adult share,it’s one of the few shows at nbc right now with an average 7 million viewers each week, think about it,
why would a 4th placer network cancel the only new show that actually rate average in viewers?
dont you guys actually think that nbc only care for 18-49 share?
Poor Ben Silverman. You guys really have it in for the guy. Sure Trauma and Mercy are awful but they’ve go some quality programming going on there in The Biggest Loser and other reality programs that….yeah quality programs…OK so maybe Sunday Night Football is the only thing to watch on NBC but it will get better. Really it will get better. Seriously stop laughing, I see wonders coming from the same creative people they continue to bring in with the same goofy comedic ideas that brought them massive hits like Community and Parks and Recreation. If NBC doesn’t get diverse behind the scenes and continues to bring us the same ol’ same ol’, that network will be a miserable disaster more than it currently is with what they air. It’s God awful programming in prime time and Comcast must be flush with cash and/or stupidity to think that there’s value in anything more than the cable properties owned by NBC. They need to, and will be fools if they don’t, get Zucker out and let someone that has a clue run that network.
Half these shows should be cancelled and add jay leno’s show to that list. NBC deserves this for pulling Southland.
What I’d like to know is was NBC ever really that good outside of Thursday night? I mean, sure back in the mid to late 90s when there was Friends, Fraiser, Seinfeld, and ER all on the one night, or at least 2 of these shows on one night, NBC generated good ratings and dominated Thursday nights, but what about other nights?
aznfratboy, take a look at the top shows of 96-97: http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/05/17/we-look-back-at-the-top-tv-shows-of-1997/3697
I believe the lineup on Thursday then was something like:
Friends
Single Guy
Seinfeld
Frasier (though I could be off about this one?)
ER
There are four other NBC shows in the top 20 that were not on Thursday night. They were definitely the most dominant on Thursdays, but they had plenty of successes elsewhere.
I’m gonna go ahead and mention Chuck. Because if it can even pull what it pulled last season it will be one of the better rated shows on NBC. Wow. NBC is falling toward CW territory now that is said. Maybe when Ostroff is fired or CW goes under (whichever happens first) they can hire her to reprogram the network to aim it at young women.
the female lead in mercy is horrific…
annoying, nasty and extremely unlikable…
thus continues my love/hate relationship with this wicked little show…