Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 25, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Ugly Betty (S), (F), (P) | 0.43 |
| Hank | 0.57 |
| Eastwick | 0.69 |
| the forgotten | 0.70 |
| The Middle | 0.73 |
| Castle (P) | 0.76 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) | 1.05 |
| FlashForward (P) | 1.13 |
| Cougar Town (P) | 1.19 |
| Modern Family | 1.23 |
| Private Practice (P) | 1.31 |
| Desperate Housewives (P) | 1.57 |
| Grey’s Anatomy (P) | 1.90 |
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Castle’s received a back 9 order to complete the 2009-2010 season. That was never really in doubt for me, the ratings weren’t terrible and the Index predicts what will happen by the end of the season. However, Castle fans prone to fingernail biting might want to invest in sturdy gloves now. I can pretty much guarantee that the future of the show will not be known until the very last minute in May. It will likely attract the most frenzy of the ABC bubble shows because of a combination of its ratings and its fans.
ABC says Eastwick is a quiet success. I guess they’ll be quiet when they cancel the show, because it has zero chance of getting another season. But it does have a crazy fan “Save our Show” campaign!
Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It’s ratings are dreadful. Could ABC keep it longer to produce even more episodes regardless of the ratings? It’s not 100% out of the question, but it’s a real longshot.
While the forgotten’s ratings have stabilized, they’ve stabilized in the “cancel me” zone and Hank is certain to be canceled as well.
The Middle has received an order for a full season from ABC, but I wouldn’t make plans to watch it next season. Its Index will continue to fall even if its ratings stabilize where they are now. The only reason it’s not red now is that I’ve learned to give half hour comedies a bit more slack until later in the season.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I knew Castle would get the orange this week since it was renewed for the full season. If Castles ratings maintain 2.5 or more, it could easily get renewed next year. Still hoping Eastwick goes up. Saw a great promo for tomorrows episode so I hope it goes up!
Ugly Betty will definitely be gone after this season. Moving to Fridays seriously killed the show!
If The Middle gets a boost from the Charlie Brown special, its chances for renewal next year should go up but ABC is showing the Charlie Brown special tonight and tomorrow night. Will some people actually watch it twice?
rob, ABC figured more people would watch a Charlie Brown repeat than would watch a new Hank.
The fact that Eastwick gets an SOS campaign proves once and for all that ANY show has crazy fans who love it–and that’s no argument for keeping it around. In fact, it’s an argument to get rid of it.
Castle will be moving up that list again once it loses DWTS as a lead-in.
@ Bill
Lol, and I am one of them Bill! I know I can get a laugh out of Charlie Brown; it’s always hit or miss with Hank…mostyl miss!
No nail biting yet. I think most Castle fans got what they wanted and that was a full season this year.
Obviously, we hope the numbers go up enough that ABC orders another season but that decision is months away so no sense in worrying over it yet.
Just because there’s no sense in worrying over it doesn’t mean fans won’t worry.
sei un portasfiga assurdo
@ the pish: Castle will surely drop if it loses DWTS, yes. I don’t think ANYONE has ever questioned that. Any show would.
But even IF it does, it will be only temporary, and then it will pick it back up in the spring, yes? So any drop would also be temporary, and then likely bounce back up. And keep in mind that Castle continues to creep upwards each week, so if THAT trend continues, the drop at that point might STILL keep it out of the danger zone.
A pessimistic vs. optimistic viewpoint, I suppose. But I remain hopeful, and right now, I think the data leans more towards the optimist view than the other.
Holly, I talk a good game but I’m going to be worrying every week. lol.
* “But even IF it does” lose DWTS for a while, I meant.
Before it aired, I never actually thought that a cop and a writer would make a good team.
I WAS WRONG!
loved the Halloween episode if only to the fact they were making references to Firefly and Buffy , that I noticed. I think some other shaws were mentioned too.
Castle dressed up as Captain Mal for Halloween.
Middle & Castle will all depend on spring scheduling. If Middle gets put after Dancing, it will rise; if Castle gets yanked to another night, it will decline. At this point, I think the midseasons do poorly enough that Castle gets a renewal.
Flashforward and Cougar Town (to me) aren’t locks either at this point, although both have factors in their favor (Heir to Lost and Bill Lawrence, respectively) in addition to ratings.
With ever decreasing thresholds, ABC may decide to keep Castle. It is an ABC Studios production (more than just ad revenues). Solid, positive fan support and it’s not serialized. Therefore, there is strong possibility of adding new viewers.
Does ABC have anything in the wings that is guaranteed to do better? A bird in the hand…
Oh come on, Bill!
Castle just got picked up for a full season last week. Can’t there be some sort of grace period before you use it as renew/cancel headline fodder again!?
Would it have killed you to go with The Middle this week instead?
That’s cold man.
“Castle” has always been the bird in the hand. And it does keep growing this season, ever so slightly, but steadily. Plus – the stars are not huge names (outside the internet) so I doubt they cost a lot, the book is OUT OF STOCK everywhere, and still in the top 15 or 20 best-sellers (I’m guessing they didn’t really anticipate the demand) etc.
I don’t know what they have in store and if it’s any good, but I can’t imagine anyone replacing it without some maaajor drop in ratings, which hasn’t happened so far.
Maybe a new version of The Odd Couple with Budo/Tony/Dan/Gerry/someone and pisher. THAT would be fine entertainment!
It was a happy alignment of the episode stars that a very good, funny episode was on last night when there were repeats on CBS. It drew more eyes to the show and it may bring in new viewers. It has in my mind some positives going for it that may sway a renewal.
Produced in-house
ABC wants a procedural and this has been the only one to do marginally well
Has some buzz going for it – not like Eli Stone but better than The Unusuals or the Forgotten. Plus it has Nathan Fillion who brings goodwill.
Has a book tie-in which could have new novels and bring additional revenues. And it can’t be that expensive to shoot.
Did I mention Nathan Fillion
Oh, you’re just baiting us with that title.
I adored the latest episode and hope no one watched football in Philly or DC last night (yeah, right). It’s a fun little show and a procedural that’s perfect for the network…which I never thought I’d say. I think it’d do better at 9pm (and with some advertising), but that’s academic, sadly.
I live in the DC area and Castle was on ABC last night, NOT football. So, we do not have to take dc numbers out of that
Castle is a great show and I’m so glad it’s getting a full season. I don’t think it’s getting the press that it deserves though. This is really my favorite show on television and I want it to survive! Pushing Daisies barely surviving two season has me on edge. All my favorite shows seem to either get terrible plots as they get older (Grey’s Anatomy, Private Practice) or get cancelled (Firefly, Pushing Daisies, Dirty Sexy Money). I’ll keep pushing for Castle as long as I can!
I live in Philly and the ABC affiliate did not even air Castle!! Not even after the game (I stayed up until 1 am to be sure) and it’s nowhere on the schedule for this week (on Comcast cable anyway). Was forced to resort to desperate measures and DL via P2P. Thank god there are other crazy fans who had the ep posted by Midnight. Hope the show makes it to a season 3 (and a 2nd book).
Castle and Ugly Betty will be back next season. Castle has a steady following and is one of ABC’s only 10 o’clock hits. And as for Betty, ABC loves to renew syndication friendly shows. The decision to put Betty on Friday basically means they are producing it for syndication dollars now. Let’s not forget how long According to Jim and Scrubs stuck around for syndication purposes. Betty will be back next year to hit 100 episodes.
Honestly I don’t know if moving Castle would hurt it.
At first glance it seems like it would, because it has Dancing as a lead-in, but it’s up against CSI: Miami, which has a very similar theme. I think Castle would do better or just as good on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays.
@Buddy, according to the prose, Ugly Betty will have enough episodes for syndication at the end of the season, ABC will not bring it back. Castle isn’t a “10 o’ clock hit” its ranked three out of five for ABC’s 10pm scripted, and its trailing “Brothers & Sisters” by a large margin.
Let’s just pray it doesn’t get moved to Fridays.
Guaranteed fingernail biting ahead?
Maybe, but I think Castle will prove to be safe. It’s got respectable ratings and it seems to keep it’s audience week in, week out. Which is reminiscent of another procedural that many predicted wouldn’t last, despite the Whedon effect of it’s main star, namely “Bones”. Which got a 2 year deal over the summer, giving it 6 in total if it then ended.
Just like Fox have with Bones, ABC have a little gem on their hands with Castle, if they would only let it develop ABC’s “Bones” like show. As many people above have already said, if Castle did end after 2 seasons, what could they replace it with? “V” looks to be a non-starter, being rewritten and reduced before it’s even aired. “Flashforward” seems to be losing its way even though it got the back nine. ABC could do a lot worse than Castle, which is why I’ll predict it’s fate for next year will be decided long before May sweeps.
After all, given how staggeringly awesome the first 20 seconds of this week’s episode was, how can they possibly cancel it? Firefly was back baby, yeah! “Didn’t you wear that like five years ago? It’s time to move on.” ABC taking a shot at Fox? Ouch.
I dont see why The CW doesnt just pick up Eastwick for a second season. It has all female leads and has decent ratings (for The CW), that should have Dawn foaming at the mouth.
Eastwick’s audience is far too old for the CW. They’d have to do a reboot with highschool kids getting powers.
i dont understand what exacty abc means with ”quiet success”???
BTW as happy as i am with GA & PP, Ugly Betty’s & Eastwick’s ratings r bad!!
but after dollhouse’s renewal last season i guess that i could expect anyything(good) especially for ugly betty!!
and ugly betty is doing slightly better than supernanny and wife swap right????
“Hank” and “Eastwick” are 13 and done. ABC isn’t even promoting “Hank” anymore, and while they’ve been promoting “Eastwick” like crazy lately, the viewer tune-out is more frightening than tomorrow’s Halloween show. ABC has “Scrubs” and “Lost” ready to go on in January. It’s not too hard to guess where they’re probably going to wind up.
I still think “The Forgotten” will get a partial backorder. Obviously, it could be doing better, but they’ve certainly done worse in that time slot. Chances are, ABC will be looking at the ratings pretty closely for the next 3 airings — particularly tonight’s, since “The Good Wife” is a rerun.
Eastwick isn’t canceled, YET: http://www.eonline.com/uberblog/watch_with_kristin/b149773_this_just_in_jillian_michaels_losing_it.html
And it would be nice if you had some sort of idea how it’s doing with DVR, which I emailed you about, Robert, but I guess your inbox is full?
andrew, it doesn’t matter how Eastwick is doing in DVR viewing, the show is 100% dead. That piece you linked to is old, and was ridiculous when it was published.
Bill, how can you say an article published 6 days ago is old? If it were published a month ago, I would agree with you.
Why do people have to squash each other’s hopes for a show they like?
andrew, while to you it may be “squash[ing] each other’s hopes” to me it’s “warning people”.
Repeat warnings create panic, panic creates frenzy, frenzy creates article comments, which in turn makes for more articles, and it all ends in starting “Save our Show” campaigns before the show is even killed off.
While you think it’s dead, Bill [and Robert], ABC still hasn’t made an official decision. Until they do, I will hope for the best, because I’m so sick and tired of procedural programming. I’m not going to eat up like a fool.
I’m curious what Castle would have to average in the demo to get another season?
Lee, that’s entirely dependent on how ABC does with their midseason lineup. Right now, averaging about 2.7-2.8 would guarantee Castle another season.
Lee, I cannot guarantee what ABC will average for the entire season, but its current 18-49 average is a 3.0 rating. Were Castle averaging a 2.7 it would be safe, it’s currently averaging a 2.3.
Thanks for the replies.
Castle is Bill and Robert’s dream – ABC’s “Chuck” for 2009-10 – Nathan Fillion gladly receives a “Chuck” Award – a statuette of Daffy Duck skiing in an Eskimo suit in Hawai’i, while Bill and Robert are sitting at a desk, grinning from ear to ear, their network servers en flambe, their call to their insurance agent going through
Other Chuck Award winners:
NBC: D’oh! The real Chuck, of course!
CBS: Do they have any? Maybe Cold Case, maybe Numb3rs, maybe The Good Wife…nah – not yet
FOX: They have Dollhouse for certain, and perhaps Fringe, if it drops any more in the Index…Lie To Me, a long shot for a third “Chuck” for FOX.
CW: Smallville, Melrose Place – both potential “Chucks” – but they’re both not doing really well enough to be a “Chuck”.
Theoacme, you win a Chuck award for Most Incomprehensible Post Comment.
Budo – you obviously didn’t watch enough TV when you were a kid…
…a classic Looney Tunes reference, from the second greatest cartoon of all time (as cited in Jerry Beck’s book, “The 50 Greatest Cartoons: As Selected by 1,000 Animation Professionals”)…
…anyone else remember this classic from Saturday mornings?
You assume too much.
I’m from Europe, Montenegro. We never had cartoons on Saturday mornings.
Castle may be averaging a 2.3 but it has actually been slowly ticking upwards in recent weeks and is remarkably consistent which both play in its favor.
…Budo, I would like to thank you, TV By The Numbers, and the Academy of Nielsen Television Formatting All Ratings Maniacs (ANT FARM) for this prestigious honour…
…oh, I should go change my avatar to reflect this award – thank you all!
I had to leave earlier so I wasn’t able to expand on my response. Doing some math it’s unlikely for Castle to average the 2.7 you guess would be safe enough for Castle to get another season.
While it’s slowly inching up it would have to start logging 2.7 and 2.8’s (or higher) regularly to get the average up enough. I guess anything is possible but I don’t see that happening. And that’s coming from a die hard Castle fan.
So there really is no hope for us Castle fans to get another season. Why is ABC keeping the show then? While the DVR numbers are solid we know they don’t count. The book sales are impressive but it’s been pointed out that ABC couldn’t possibly be making enough money off of that. In fact are probably losing money on the promotion alone. Despite an ABC production the low demo isn’t bringing enough money in to keep it on air.
Lee, it would need to average a 2.7 *today* to be safe, there’s no guarantee that ABC’s final average is going to be anything near a 3.0, it’s likely near the peak for the season now, remember they’ve just aired 5 weeks of nothing but new episodes, lots of weeks of repeats are coming up (of course Castle will have repeats too). I’m not saying Castle will make it, but it’s not mathematically impossible already.
I’m just happy Castle got a full season this year.
I am also just beside myself that Nathan Fillion was in a Mal costume again. I never thought I would see that again….
Bill, thanks again. I appreciate all the responses to my questions.
I doubt Hank will be back in January, it’s already struggling and will get pumelled against American Idol, which will only hurt The Middle. Castle looks decent, better then the CSI franchise, guys acting all dramatic after witnessing a body lying around somewhere…
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, ABC should really consider switching Brothers and Sisters and Eastwick, make Sunday Night some “girls/women/ladies night” or whatever, I mean, Eastwick is almost a carbon copy of Desperate Housewives, middle aged women suddenly thrusted into some magic stuff. Brothers and sisters is a family affairs show, chuck it after all the family-oriented comedies ABC has. If this screws up, moves Brothers and sisters back, throw lost after the comedies.
Also, please, please, please, take the extra one and a half seconds or so to type the entire name of the show, or at least a slightly shortened name of the show, maybe it’s just me, but I find it annoying trying to find out what HFURFKF stands for… the fact that you are on a TV ratings forum proves that you’re not that important that the world would explode if it had those one and a half seconds without you.
My mother watched AFHV the other night, and I noticed that during the show they really promoted both The Middle and Modern Family.
Oh God!!!!!
Please Save Ugly Betty!
Castle should go! This show is just alright not great.
So… save one of the six versions of Ugly Betty that no one watches anyway, and cancel an “alright” new show? Nice.
As much as I love Ugly Betty, it’s a goner. It’s one of those shows of 2006 that ran out of good story lines after it’s first season (Heroes, Friday Night Lights, etc.).
Castle should stay! It’s highly entertaining and has a lot of replay value, despite masquerading as a procedural; it’s character-driven with a tight ensemble main cast that has chemistry in spades.
The two main weak points are one: Forty-Three minutes is not enough time to have a highly evolved, complicated murder mystery, while at the same time giving the full attention to the Castle-Beckett relationship, the Castle Family, Kate Beckett’s off-duty private life that Stana Katic wants, Ryan, Esposito and Lanie’s private lives. So you end up shortchanging alot, to fit it in the allotted forty-three minutes. Remember, this show is equal parts Drama and Comedy, with some Romance thrown in – think Gilmore Girls with a murder mystery thrown in every episode and imagine how it would change that show.
Two: No Mini-Arcs or Seasonal Arcs which make for the best and most riviting storytelling; everything has to be contained in one episode. Only Kate Beckett’s moms murder mystery is considered and is glossed over. Imagine a season long Serial Killer story line, or Serial Rapist, or a main Antagonist/Villain throughout the season seeking revenge on Castle and Beckett and the possibilities and opportunities that could bring to the show that unfortunately, we will never be able to see – especially with our 18-49 Nielson Box demo-challenged show never allowing the creators to take some risks!
Also, I hope as a Nathan Fillion fan and Firefly fan, that this show is not going to be directly competing with Morena Baccarin’s V, who played Inara on Firefly! How ironic and sad would it be if Mal killed Inara or Inara killed Mal? If it comes down to it, I love Mal & Inara, but sorry Morena, I love Nathan and Castle WAY TOO MUCH for this show to end!
Will I have any Nails left come May?
Every thousand-mile journey begins with the first foot forward. In other words: One week at a time.
Castle FTW! This show is hilarious.
Castle isn’t 43 minutes. It’s slights less than 42 minutes.
Carol,
Slightly less than Forty-Two Minutes, thanks. Evan back in the 80’s and most of the 90’s hour long shows lasted almost Forty-Eight Minutes. Than in the beginning of this Century started being around Forty-Four-and-a-Half Minutes; another Five Years and an Hour-Long Drama will barely be Thirty-Eight Minutes!
The point being, that if you watch TV shows that have inspired the Castle Creator and the Writers of this show on DVD, such as: Moonlighting, Remington Steele, The Rockford Files, they are a lot longer, and have lots of time to fully develope the plots & characters and not have to rush things. This has nothing to do with the fast-paced dialog they use, based off The Thin Man Series, His Girl Friday, 30’s & 40’s Screwball Comedies, that Gilmore Girls also had in common. They really could use another Four Minutes per episode, but of course aren’t going to get. If you’ve watched the five preview clips for the last two episodes of Castle, you probably noticed how much has been edited to fit in those all-too-brief, slightly less-than Forty-Two Minutes.
Does anyone know if all the ABC hour-long Dramas run the same running time as Castle?
So ABC so far has three hits, three misses, and one new show that’s… wait for it… somewhere in The Middle? HAHAHAHA! I had to, sorry…
John – Ugly Betty will be gone in May, its only still around for syndication.
Bryan – ABC may want to keep The Middle around despite middling ratings. Remember ABC has not had a new comedy last 3 seasons since Hope & Faith. Every comedy after that either lasted 1 season or 2 (Samantha Who, Notes From the Underbelly) If Ted somehow gets a third year it will be the longest running new comedy ABC has had.
Bill – Its likely after December that all of Castle will be originals, possibly to let the show finish up by March should ABC want a replacement in the hour.
I dont know when ABC will pull Hank, Eastwick and The Forgotten. My guess is that ABC will pull Hank after its November 4th or 18th airing and Forgotten and Eastwick will be quietly cancelled but will run all episodes. By December 8, 10 episodes of Forgotten will have aired and by December 9, 11 episodes of Eastwick will have aired. ABC may as well air the rest of the originals throughout December. Its better than repeats and Theres no point in saving either series now with so many midseason dramas.
Dan,
I remember reading an interview with one of the actresses and she mentioned that they would find out whether they were going to get a full season after the November sweeps.
Danny-
I don’t understand how V would compete with Castle when they are both schedule for 2 differnt nights. Caslte is on Monday nights & V will be on Tuesday nights.
I also remember reading somewhere that they will get back to the story acrs later on in the season. I think the “lighter” episodes were a good choice and drew in some more viewers.
The heavier- story driven showes are difficult to follow especially for the new viewer (ie., Heroes )
@Chucksmom,
Castle is basically competing against V for renewal. Networks generally cancel their lowest rated shows, so if V does really well, that could hurt Castle’s chances for renewal. If it does poorly, Castle looks better.
Castle’s moved up to #6 on the NY Times Best-Seller list:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/08/books/bestseller/besthardfiction.html?_r=1
While it’s probably not as good as DVD revenue, it IS more revenue and that’s never a bad thing.
I know this is for ABC Scripted Shows, but ABC has ordered more Shark Tank!
http://twitter.com/robertherjavec/statuses/5328661113
I really wish you would use different color codings in these keys. I have (relatively mild) red/green color blindess and I can see zero distinction in the list between “Some Danger Of Being Canceled” and “Likely to be Renewed”
Adam, since bolding seems to help, I will bold both the red and the green (top and bottom of the lists) in the future.
That’s much appreciated. I can easily see the difference in today’s posting.
EASTWICK WILL NOT BE CANCELLED–no worries.
CHECK IT OUT:
http://scifiwire.com/2009/10/really-abc-calls-eastwick.php