Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 25, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Til Death (S), (F) | 0.22 |
| Brothers (F) | 0.26 |
| Dollhouse (F), (P) | 0.27 |
| Fringe | 0.65 |
| Bones (P) | 0.82 |
| Lie To Me (P) | 0.86 |
| Glee (P) | 0.96 |
| American Dad (P) | 1.01 |
| The Simpsons (P) | 1.21 |
| The Cleveland Show (P) | 1.25 |
| Family Guy (P) | 1.40 |
| House | 1.62 |
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Dollhouse, ‘Til Death and Brothers have been pulled from the Fox schedule for the November sweeps period. Dollhouse will return with double episodes on Friday’s in December. Brothers will move to Sundays to finish its run. ‘Til Death returns in a four episode Christmas Eve mini-marathon. Fox stole my idea! (ok, mine was for Independence Day). They are all out of the way for other shows that presumably can attract more viewers, and they are all certain to be canceled.
While I think the prospects are still positive for Fringe there is at least some question about its future, so I will keep it in orange.
Note that the Index values for all Fox shows will be depressed for next few weeks because the World Series ratings will unusually boost Fox’s overall average. That will slowly subside as Fox’s average evens out post-baseball. Edit: Fox’s average is *already* boosted because of the ALCS games, which is already driving down the Indexes of Fox’s other shows.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think it’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
You don’t consider Lie to Me even slightly Orangish?
Why does FOX want to ruin Xmas?
I’ve been a bit out of touch, so maybe this is a dumb question, but is Glee really below average in the demo for Fox? I thought it is making hay on being such a good demo show.
I think Dollhouse is really good; I don’t understand why it isn’t doing better. There really are a lot of junky shows out there across all the networks (and even in HBO and ShowTime etc.) and good shows keep getting canceled year after year. Fox is annoying especially in that regard.
Somebody at FOX must really love “Brothers” because they will air on Sundays, even though their Sunday lineup is killer.
Schmoker, Fox got a big demo boost this past week with its Sunday of football/baseball and the other ALCS games. Their 18-49 average is now a 3.4.
Glee’s is a 3.3.
“Til Death?” Certain to be cancelled? Poppycock! That show is like that hockey mask-wearing thing from the “Friday the 13th” movies. Everybody has tried to kill it, but no matter what you do, no matter what weapon you use, no matter how fatally you wound it, it will just rise from the dead and wreak havoc upon the population all over again. It will never die! It can’t die! “Til Death” is… the undead!
You’ve previously said that the cutoff for the index was 0.92, so could you explain why Lie To Me (and other shows on other indices) which haven’t already been renewed (like Bones) are in the green? Is it because it’s so early in the season, because the House juggernaut skews the numbers when considering the realistic potential of a replacement show, or is it something else entirely?
Scott R., beginning this week as I covered in the post, Fox’s overall average is being *substantially* boosted by baseball games, which drives down the Indexes of all their shows. That will be temporary (baseball is done in 2 weeks or so), by early 2010 that ratings bulge rabbit will have been digested into the pythonic averages and will be relatively meaningless.
I added an extra line to the post to perhaps clarify the situation.
House is still the highest-rated show on FOX. It’s NBCU’s only show that actually doing well compared to NBC’s lineup.
Bill, do you not think that Brothers has the slightest chance of renewal by returning solely on Sundays in that old King of the Hill slot that gets preempted all the time? I know the ratings obviously aren’t there to justify it, but I’m just wondering if Fox might be interested in keeping a show with a football-theme to it on right after NFL football.
And Fox has a strong relationship with Michael Strahan. Brothers could be used to help promote the NFL on Fox brand.
Riff Rafferty says: “no matter how fatally you wound it”
Nice.
Chief, I can’t see how there’s any hope for Brothers.
Upcoming headline: ‘Til Death: The Ghost of Christmas Past!
Why do you think that Fox originally put a show like Brothers on a Friday night? They surely weren’t expecting even decent numbers, were they? What kind of numbers would have been satisfying for them? Would even a 1.5 average have been satisfactory for them?
For the record, I have never seen more than five seconds of Brothers and have no vested interest in the show myself.
Fringe will be back. I am 100% sure. It will move to a different night though. FOX knows it can be a solid ratings gainer (solid, not great) on another night with a decent lead-in, but on Thursdays it stands no chance and Bones has a completely different fanbase. It was not horrible thinking to assume the duo might do well, but they were wrong and they’re not going to risk moving either show to a different night and messing up their schedule when the lineup is strong outside of 1/2 of Thursdays and Fridays. Just to give some people an idea of the competition it faces directly at 9 PM on Thursdays in November.
Entertainment: Grey’s Anatomy, The Office, 30 Rock, Vampire Diaries, CSI
Sports: NBA Basketball on TNT, College Football on ESPN, TNA Impact!, Thursday Night Football on NFL Network
Just look at that, there are numerous shows that attract every single demographic, that are definitely cutting into Fringer’s numbers.
Another issue that I think this site sometimes ignores is the surrounding hour shows (8-9, 10-11). Just because it doesn’t directly compete against something doesn’t mean people won’t not watch because they watch something before or after that show. Fringe is a very heavy show with intricate details and a lot to absorb and I have no doubt that Flash Forward at 8 is causing a lot of sci-fi fans to not tune in because those two shows back to back might be too much (the same reason Invasion failed after following Lost, and to a degree The Nine).
Lastly, one more big reason why the ratings are down is the current direction of the show. Outside of the opening scene, this season has consisted of Olivia talking about her mental state for almost 35 minutes an episode. This is not compelling television and people channel surfing will turn it off and some fans with a smaller attention span will definitely give up on the show.
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Sorry for writing a thesis here, but I think Fringe will be back next year on a new night with a revamped format.
Yes, I’m sure that 4-episode Christmas Eve Blackmail Burnoff Bonanza marathon will really put a dent in the 22* episodes that currently sit on the shelf. Maybe FOX will finally get around to airing the Christmas themed episode from last season? The one that 2 of my friends were extras in? Oh, sure, it’s only got a big B-plot featuring not-so-dearly-departed actor J.B. Smoove working as a mall Santa, but FOX never gave a toss about the continuity of “Til Death” before, so why start now?
*28 by December 24. And counting. But who’s counting?
When have they not cared about continuity Rick? Yes, last year when Do Not Disturb was canned and they aired Til Death in one hour blocks they alternated between an episode with the Woodcocks and one without, but they didn’t say why they were gone, or if they were gone until episode 402 when the new principal was revealed.
Rick? Rick Roll’d? And so what you’re saying is, by just skipping over, you know, 2 dozen episodes, they’ve maintained the continuity? Point taken.
In fact, I think that’s such a good point, I propose that FOX skip over the next 8 episodes of “Dollhouse” and just air the series finale. If anything happens in those 8 episodes that is mentioned in the series finale, well, who cares? It’s not like anybody will know what they’ve missed.
@Riff Rafferty, i usually hate your posts, but your first one about til’ death made me laugh.
I wish you would/could remove sports from Fox’s index. You do it with American Idolt, why not ALCS?
johnthemon, I don’t “remove” American Idol, I couldn’t without *huge* work on an ongoing basis. I just freeze the Fox average pre-Idol.
I can’t freeze the Fox average pre-baseball (there’s only been a couple weeks of the season!), and I’d rather not pull 3 entire weeks of the average out either.
Til Death’s continuity director – Dick York (or was it Dick Sargent?)
But it’s not like anything major happened. You’re confusing continuity with episode count. Episodes can air out of order and still maintain continuity. NCIS: LA just skipped an episode and the episode of Hank pre-empted by Charlie Brown won’t be airing.
I watch Til Death, I’ll admit that, but come on, what long, developed Damages like story arcs has the show had that has made it impossible for you to follow things since FOX hasn’t aired every episode?
Fox is killing Fringe by having it on Thursdays.
JJ Abrams other little show ran away from Thursdays too.
*eye roll*
Kevin: You’re right – nothing major happened…
…except for its inexplicable renewal by FOX…and the fact that all indications are that they will, later this season, air Season 4 episodes admixed with Season 2 and 3 episodes – and I’d say that major characters missing from Season 4 who are in 2 and 3, when they mix the episode order, is a continuity issue (at the network level, not the production level, to be certain, but still a continuity problem at some level)…
…and I did try following things, but not even Brad Garrett could make me care beyond the first three episodes, when I stopped watching…
…as for your Damages remark, well, I’ve never watched that show, not having cable, but since Til Death isn’t likely to be remembered, for good or ill, except for FOX’s inexplicable decision to renew it for this season, I’ll merely ask you why you made such a insulting remark towards me…
…do I have to explain that my previous comment was a joke, which I do all the time here, since TV isn’t life or death (except for Dollhouse and T:SCC fans)?
Damm i thought Fringe was produced by Fox.
Is that the reason why they don’t air repeats much?
Nothing during summer and very few last season.
vsaint,
I believe that Fringe is produced by WB.
Futon Critic updates its report and Til Death will no longer have a Christmas Eve marathon but a Christmas Day Marathon
http://www.thefutoncritic.com/news.aspx?id=8359
Til Death will move to Sundays in January replacing Brothers
Til Death on Sundays will be back to back new episodes by the way. With that set-up burning off the episodes will now be easy
I can see Til Death going to another network like the CW.
You mean CW doesn’t have enough problems without adding Til Death to the mix?
Actually, Mel, this would be Abrams’ 4th Thursday series that I can think of. Alias in fall 2005, Six Degrees fall 2006, Lost winter/spring 2008, and now Fringe. And yep, they all ended up moving to different nights.
I like Til Death. I’ve been watching it since the beginning. It’s increasingly hard to follow though. Of course its ratings are in the toilet. They change it up every single year trying to save the show by presumable cutting costs removing key characters and letting others vanish without explanation. I don’t think it’s maintained a consistent time slot through a single season. And please don’t forget it was a big hit in the second half of its first season when it was after American Idol. It had potential but that evaporated a the beginning of season 2.
I’ve always felt bad for everyone involved on the show. I’d like to say it deserved better but maybe it didn’t. At the very least it didn’t deserve this long drawn out agonious death.
Fox,can any one know what is in there heads.At one time thay got rid of
Family Guy,becuse thay say it was not doing any good,when it was.Then thay got it bace and it has a spin-off.Thay get rid of one of the best sci-fi on tv terminator the sarah connor chronicles.Well now thay doing the right thing geting rid of the shows that should have been droped after the first show.Then agen you never know with fox.Thay have lived with the head in the back side for so long thay dont see what ppl realy like.
Brothers and Dollhouse have end dates, Til Death is just burning off and everything else looks safe for next season. Even the orangish Fringe is worth saving by FOX. Lie to Me could be orangeish but it depends how the series does should it get the back 9.
Expect a full Lie to Me season soon.
FOX has just confirmed what I had thought all along. Til Death will return on Sunday January 10 with back to back episodes airing 7 and 7:30. Dollhouse will air on January 8, 15 and 22 and Brothers will finish on December 27. Til Death is likely to shift into the 7:00 slot once Sons of Tucson premieres. http://www.thefutoncritic.com/news.aspx?id=8359
Dollhouse, Til Death and Brothers are already sure to not make 2010 or at least february of 2010.
I think its a good move for FOX, to air all the remaining episodes before 2010.
It looks like forg already reported what I had but its likely Til Death will be originals on Christmas. Hopefully FOX will air the Season 3 episodes, which they should have aired instead of repeats. Brothers is done on December 27, 2009. Dollhouse is done on January 22, 2010. Til Death may take a little longer to burn through originals but its unlikely to get a fifth year.
Should we start sending the bloody Barbie doll heads to Fox yet?
To the person with the Bones comment. You are correct it has not been renewed for a full season. That was because last season it was renewed for 2 more years.
Bill Gorman: “… by early 2010 that ratings bulge rabbit will have been digested into the pythonic averages and will be relatively meaningless.”
I imagine this is what Numb3rs would sound like if it aired on Animal Planet.
nkinsey – Yeah Bones got 2 full seasons but thats no surprise, Bones is a dolid performer and should be around for years to come. House would likely have been given 2 more years but FOX would need to reach a deal with Universal.
I think this is the longest FOX has gone without axing a series in the fall. I think 2006 FOX axed its first series on November 2 (Happy Hour and The Rich List) so if we go past then this year will be a new record. Dollhouse and Brothers have NOT been officially axed but everyone knows they are all but cancelled.
R.I.P.
Brothers September 25, 2009 – December 27, 2009
Dollhouse February 13, 2009 – January 22, 2010
Til Death September 7, 2006 – TBA (Whenever Syndication is Fulfilled)
All other current series are 100% to return in 2010. House, Bones, 24, Family Guy, The Simpsons, American Dad, The Cleveland Show, American Idol, Hell’s Kitchen, Glee, and SYTYCD, as well as likely contenders Fringe and Lie to Me.
Its too early for Human Target and Past Life but its likely Target could survive, and Past Life may be axed if it gets shifted. Sons of Tucson should do well. Overall FOX isnt having a bad year, they just need to rework fridays come midseason.
“@Riff Rafferty, i usually hate your posts, but your first one about til’ death made me laugh.”
I’ll let you know when I like one of yours.
And Kevin, no offense, but do you even watch the show? (That’s a rhetorical question, because, of course, nobody watches the show.) FOX shelved 15 segments from the previous 2 seasons – 1 of which has the Woodcocks in it, approximately 14 of which have Kenny. They recast the actress who plays Allison. Doug and Allison were mentioned as being married in the 4th season premiere, “Doug and Ally Return.” We never saw their wedding. That happened in last season’s “Can’t Elope.” Kenny moved in to the Starks house last year. We don’t know why he’s there. The explanation happened in the intended 3rd season premiere, “The Buffer.” Eddie and Joy met some new friends in last season’s “The Perfect Couple” (played by Kevin Nealon and his real-life wife, Susan Yeagley). We’ve never met them, obviously, because none of their episodes from last season made it onto TV, but that didn’t stop FOX from scheduling one of their return episodes, “The Break-Up,” for this coming November sweeps. I’m sorry, but I don’t even think “Flash Forward” jumps around in time that much. I’d like to see the Whedonuts’ reaction if FOX were to just decide to skip over a dozen episodes of the Joss piece of crap and air them in some random order.
I think fox should consider the line up on other channels for thursday with fringe. It is hard night for me…I feel like every network picked thursday night to show some interesting television. At 8pm..flashforward, vampire diaries, and bones. At 9pm supernatural and fringe. I really like fringe and hope they keep it around. Unfortuantly, at 8pm one show from my interest had to be axed and that vampire diaries….I personally think they should move fringe back to tuesday night either before or after V.
oh and yes I am aware that V is on another station…but…I think it would better draw people’s interest …to find and interesting scifi show to watch on tuesday night..and not sure how V will do…but fringe is a great and could gain viewers on this night.
Thanks, forg.
I wonder if FOX would’ve gotten better ratings by just having mini-marathons every Friday rather than having the odd combination of Brothers, Til Death, and Dollhouse.
I only watched Brothers becasue Kim Kardashian was on. I was pleasantly surprised. CCH Pounder is actuaally decent in a comedy.
J.R. Herbaugh – FOX wouldve had better ratings with Dead air. They wouldve done twice as better with the COPS America’s Most Wanted combo on fridays.
Riff Rafferty – Can’t Elope must be an unaired third season episode that never saw the light of day. FOX could have easily aired Til Death’s remaining 10 episodes at 7:00 beginning last November. So fans can follow the storyline. Maybe FOX will air the 10 pre Season 4 episodes but atleast they will turn up in Syndication and on DVD. Do you know of any other unaired episodes. I only know The Courship of Eddie’s Parents (212), The Buffer (302), The Ex Factor (306), Snore Loser (307), The Perfect Couple (308), Family Vacation (309), Ally Abroad (310), and Brother’s Keeper (311). With two left I assume Can’t Elope is either (312 or 313) and theres one more left.
I don’t understand, how can Fringe go down from the last index when there wasn’t a new episode last week?
Ellie, Fox’s overall 18-49 average got a big boost last week from baseball & football, so the it depressed (and will continue to depress) all the scripted show averages for at least the next several weeks.
Bring back Terminator, since FOX, like always, f’ed up by keeping Dollhouse, Brothers, and Till Death.
Dan writes, ” Do you know of any other unaired episodes. I only know The Courship of Eddie’s Parents (212), The Buffer (302), The Ex Factor (306), Snore Loser (307), The Perfect Couple (308), Family Vacation (309), Ally Abroad (310), and Brother’s Keeper (311). With two left I assume Can’t Elope is either (312 or 313) and theres one more left.
Ally Abroad is 309
Family Vacation is 310
Dog Fight is 311
Brother’s Keeper (Nathan Lane’s episode) is 312
Can’t Elope – 313
No Complaints (aforementioned Christmas show) – 314
One Night Stand (Kevin Nealon and Susan Yeagley return) – 315
The Joy of Learning – 316
Handbag Story – 317
Cold Case (I think this is the name of it – the one where Joy plays detective when Eddie keeps a secret from her) – 318
Riff Rafferty – So how many total episodes of Season 3 were produced. I thought it was only 13, but since theres more it seems really unlikely FOX will ever air them. Thats a lot more than I expected though, FOX really should have aired these episodes sundays at 7 Jan-May 09. Where did you find the info for these episodes???
Im guessing FOX produced 18 episodes for Season 3.
Dan, iON never gets better than 0.8.
I’m just wondering when a network finally mimics cable by running mini-marathons.
Til Death is getting an Xmas 4 ep marathon but I think thats just a quicker way to burn off episodes.
Greg Chenoweth – FOX does like Brothers but instead of pulling the series like a network would normally do, they figure burning off episodes would be easier. Maybe because Michael Strahan is on the series.
JR, mini-marathons work on cable, because they have all day to fill, and can stick 4-6 (or more!) episodes on a Sunday, leading up to a new episode. Broadcast networks don’t have the luxury of being able to do that. I suppose they could put 4-6 on a Saturday night before a show returns on a Sunday, though. But I doubt that would do them much good.
I know about Xmas, Dan. I’m wondering when a network will start scheduling things that way. Dan, I wouldn’t presume Fox likes a show that pulls 0.8. (Just like I won’t presume why you tried to derail the bingo post.) Perhaps you should look at the Accountant post.
Nevermind, FOX already does it with Kitchen Nightmares. And MyNet does it Monday & Wednesday. And FOX has done it with COPS.
FOX doubled up on Kitchen Nightamres last year but now I just see The series third season being burned off on fridays. Networks wont start scheduling things like that, since they cant broadcast new episodes before 9 (7 on sundays) ABC has aired Border Security’s last episodes 5:00 sundays and FOX has burned off Sit Down Shut Up late nights, but that was the exceptions.
There was a brief time in 2000 when NBC used to dump the remaining eps of whatever show it had cancelled in place of reruns of the previous week’s Late Night. Meaning that around 3 in the morning at various times throughout smmer of 00 and summer of 01 you had various episodes of Suddenly Susan and that Steven Webber sitcom being burned off.
I thought that was a brilliant idea on their part—they can claim the shows aired—and they can get whatever affiliate money they can get for it (which is of course pure local ads and serta sleeper matress commercials) I’m surprised they havn’t done it more with other cancelled shows throughout this past decade—but then again who would really wanna watch burned off episodes of Hidden Hills or Good Morning Miami at 3 AM (aside from me of course)
Yes, FOX ordered 18 “Til Death” eps last season (18 not 22 because of 4 Season 2 holdovers). Between you and me, I just don’t think they ordered enough.
As for the ones that haven’t been shown in the United States, I have a photocopy of the “No Complaints” script around here somewhere and some sides from some of the others. And, like I mentioned, I had 2 friends who were background in that one, 1 of whom was at the taping of another one (I don’t remember which) last December. Sony has them all in the international syndication package, they just haven’t made them available in the States in any form yet. But perhaps Bill, Julia and myself have finally shamed FOX into dusting them off. Looks like Bill’s dream of a ‘Til Death Independence Day Marathon is one step closer to reality!
Riff – FOX wouldve had 22 full for Season 3 if they aired them all (18 season 3 and 4 season 2). I dont understand why FOX wouldnt burn all the Season 3 episodes off Sundays at 7 last season. Here’s 4 reasons why they shouldve.
1. FOX paid for all the episodes
2. Since they ordered a fourth year, new episodes may have kept some interest alive in the show (in theory).
3. New episodes wouldve done better than repeats.
4. It would have explained more to the storyline, like why Kenny disappeared, Ally and Doug’s marriage etc.
It seems less likely FOX will ever show the remaining Season 3 Til Death episodes (even next summer) but at least they will show up in syndication. All 81 episodes and hopefully a proper ending.
I think 81 episodes is good enough. It seems the bare minimum for syndication. If Sony made FOX another deal, FOX could order another 19 episode season to bring an even 100 episodes but even still theres no way FOX would do that after Death’s disatourous Season 4 premiere. I would like to see it in syndication though as well as those unaired Season 3 eps.
Who can realy predict Fox and Til Death, they get the show for nothing, Sony may Pay Fox next year in a deal similar to CW Sunday night, Sony could own Sunday 7PM’s block and air Til Death and Brother/Bill Engval or whatever sitcom they want to keep going…
The thing is Sony will come out of this and make good money, a sitcom that star’s Brad Garet from Everybody Loves Raymond that most of America only saw the 10 episode stretch that aired after American Idle, and as long as Sony made a couple of episodes that explain the cast members being dropped from season to season then it will at least start to make a since when it is aired in daily syndication and probably TBS/WGN etc.
If Sons of Tucson takes off, then maybe FOX could pair it with a new single camera comedy in the fall and restart that genre.