Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 25, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.52 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.69 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.74 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.74 |
| Community | 0.84 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.93 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.96 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.17 |
| The Office (P) | 1.56 |
-
The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates, not a drama like Mercy.
Trauma didn’t receive an order for its “back 9″ episodes, so it’ll last at most 13 episodes and then be canceled. It may be pulled from the schedule sooner than that.
Although SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it was limited run, I’m not including it.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
-
Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
if mercy holds i can actually see it sticking around next season
Not if the new regime has any hope of saving a sinking ship, Jimmy.
All I can say is …..CHUCK ME!!!!!
go away parks and mercy!!
Community is a terrible show. In fairness tho I only watched the pilot ep and never gave it a second chance. P&R has its moments. Should have kept My Name is Earl and keep allowing P&R to grow. I haven’t watched either Mercy or Trauma so no big deal there.
The Office was pretty lame in the ratings when it debuted, but NBC had faith and it has prospered. Hopefully they will have the same faith in Community and Parks/Recreation. They are both great shows. But they need time to establish themselves. Not everything is a Lost or Mentalist in its first season. Cheers and Seinfeld are good models because they took quite a few years to find their audience. Parks/Recreation is especially worth saving. And if Community is cancelled, Joel McHale deserves another vehicle.
Jay..the Community pilot was lame. But it has gotena lot better. Check it out again!
jay, the majority like community over parks so if they ever brought back earl they would cancel parks which is a good thing
Parks and Community will most likely survive. So far, Parks has shown growth, and Community has not been in a ratings freefall in a difficult timeslot.
Hard to see Mercy staying around except due to actual mercy. But to avoid more trauma, NBC just may keep Mercy. Trauma will not have mercy.
the only reason community’s numbers have been falling is because NBC switched the the times with parks which was a dumb decision
My advice to NBC is to air one episode each of “Community” and “Parks and Wreck” at 9:30 after “The Office” later in the season. If neither show can hold the same percentage of the lead-in that “30 Rock” can, then kick ‘em both out the door and try again. Me? I won’t be trying again with either “Community” and “Parks.” But I do thank NBC for keeping them on, because it makes it so much easier for me to get caught up with “Survivor” and “Flash Forward.”
Just curious, why does a 0.52 for L&O make it likely to be canceled while a 0.52 for Numb3rs make it likely for renewal? They’re both owned by their respective networks. They’re both on Fridays. They’ve both got lucrative TNT syndication deals. What’s the variable that separates them, production cost?
It’s too bad Parks & Rec had such a terrible first season, because this year it’s actually really good. People just aren’t checking it out because they gave up on it already. But it did get way better, just like The Office back in its first couple years.
Andrew, damn good question! It’s more a guess that CBS would keep Numb3rs as long as it stays as close to Ghost Whisperer as it did last season. I think I am more likely to be wrong about that (and Numb3rs would get canceled) than I am to be wrong about L&O.
I think L&O should be orange/yellow. Yes, it was renewed more for the sake of the record number of seasons than anything else, but I don’t think it is guaranteed to be canceled. It had a slow start, but has gotten at least a 1.5 for three weeks in a row now, which is pretty good for a Friday. It’s not going to beat GW, but it’s doing respectably and NBC has much bigger problems to worry about.
Love Community and Law and Order.
I think if nothing else, NBC might up their episode order of L&O from 16 to a full 22, but cancellation still seems pretty likely. Dick Wolf would then try, and probably succeed, to finagle some sort of cable rescue in order to break the Gunsmoke record outright. I mean if he was able to squeeze three extra seasons out of Criminal Intent, surely he’d be able to do something similar for The Mothership.
Once Trauma gets axed, I hope Aimee Garcia gets onto another series very quickly. I love her.
I’m actually thankful that so many of these new (NBC) shows are not very good. It’s helping me with my goal of watching LESS T.V.!
Holly, I totally agree. L&O has a decent shot at a 21st season holding down Fridays.
And as for Community/Parks, if they can hover around a 2.0 average they probably have a shot at returning next year. If they can grow this season to a 2.2-2.5 (not out of the question with some decent advertising/promotion… and I mean quality, not quantity), their renewal would be a near lock.
Brendan: They never switched Community and Parks. Community got a 3 week spot at 9:30 after the Office just until 30 Rock came back.
I see these kind of comments all the time “Parks and Rec had it’s chance after the Office and blew it.” Parks and Rec only aired after the Office once, and it was an 8:00 special episode of the Office. Parks never got a chance to air after the Office in its regular 9:00 spot (like Community did 3 times), which as time goes by, looks like an ever poorer decision by NBC all the time.
However, looking at the context of the situation, I understand that NBC probably thought Parks would be a little more of a self-starter than what it ended up being. I guess due to the fact that it a) was from the creators of the Office, b)had the style of the Office, c)was on directly prior to the Office, c) had Poehler and a lot of “buzz”.
They also needed something to immediately replace the loser Kath & Kim. With 20/20 hindsight it probably would have worked out better pre-empting 30 Rock for a few weeks and running Parks after The Office at 9:30.
If Parks had truely gotten the Community treatment, perhaps it would have caught on more. Then again, maybe not.
Parks & Rec is my favourite half-hour this season, and there are some pretty good new shows out there (Cougar Town, Modern Family, Community, HBO’s Hung, currently on hiatus). Whatever else gets pulled, I hope it stays.
honestly it’s too early to be attached to any of the shows doomed for cancellation, but if I have to pull one body from the “reaking carnage” I’ll take Parks.
NBC books 3 more weeks of ‘Trauma’
http://www.thrfeed.com/2009/10/nbc-books-trauma-for-next-3-weeks.html
How can Trauma pull a 1.9 get more episodes Chuck gets nothing. They can order more now still air in March and I will bet my house that Chuck pulls better than a 1.8. Unbelievable. I will only watch NBC while Chuck is on the air. Once they cancel it at the end of this year I am done forever.
Failure gets rewarded while a show the fans love gets pushed back to March. I wonder how Subway feels about the lack of love from NBC to Chuck. I am sure they will never partner with these idiots again. >-)
I’ll take your Chuck 1.8 bet.
Seriously, I want a house.
You think Chuck is going to go from a 2.5 to a 1.8. LMAO.
I am sorry but there are 6.5 million Chuck fans think otherwise.
Half of them don’t know Chuck isn’t canceled.
It’s hard to say what is going to NBC’s Monday night lineup. Last year with Chuck, Heroes and the late My Own Worst Enemy they had demos of 2.5, 3.9 and 2.3 respectively on the equivalent point in the season. Last night they got 2.5, 1.9 and 1.3 with Heroes, Trauma and Leno. If I recall correctly MOWE was cancelled in November as it’s ratings dropped below 2.0, so on a numbers basis Trauma should be gone.
On the flip side, how do you tell Trauma that it is gone at 1.9 when Mercy who gets 2.0 on a less competitive night just got a full season renewal. And not just any renewal, but one that effectively kills NBC’s plan for split seasons on that time slot. If Mercy gets 22 episodes, that together with premptions, specials ect puts it’s schedule, even without repeats well past the end of the Olympics. I can see justifing a change to the plan for a hit, or something that in the NBC universe is hit-like, but to change plans for Mercy’s 2.0 is a suprise and really a vote of no confidence in Parenthood.
ken, to make matters worse, Mercy dropped to 1.9 in the finals last week.
Chuck3G, but of those 6.5 million fans, now many have nielson box/vote? THose are the ones that count unfortunately.
I enjoy all four shows on NBC Thursday with Parks and Recreation being my current frontrunner for most improved show (Castle’s up there too). I know NBC doesn’t want to mess with their most (only?) successful show in their lineup but I can’t help but think that overall Thursday nights would do better with this lineup:
8- The Office (Has a large audience. would provide the lead-in the night’s been sorely lacking)
830- Parks and Recreation (Office fans who sampled the show in season 1 would have a chance to see its improvement and through retention/word of mouth could be a success)
9- 30 Rock (At the moment it seems to be heavily reliant on The Office as a lead in but could still probably pull in high 2’s/low 3’s
930- Community- Was doing pretty well with Office lead in early in the season so presumably could hold most of 30 Rock’s audience too. Also, its type of humor suits 30 Rock better.
While obviously it would be a risk at this point NBC needs to start taking more risks and if The Office could still pull in high 3’s/low 4’s, Parks Low 3’s/High 2’s 30 Rock Low 3’s/High 2’s and Community Low 3’s/High 2’s then the night would definitely be an improvement overall.
this site has become so cynical. Who’s to say what Chuck will pull when it returns? For better or worse!
Community has better ratings and reviews, so i rooting for it.
I guess it’s a matter of taste, but i don’t get Parks and Recreation. It’s a horrible show.
trauma is a good show but the budget and numbers are probably going to cancel it D:
NBC has really dug itself into a nasty pile of you know what, but then, when this was their strategy all along, can anyone be surprised how they’ve ended up? I really don’t know how they can get themselves out of this mess anytime soon short of scrapping their entire lineup for maybe 20 new shows next fall. At least that way they can make quite a splash and steal a lot of thunder from the other networks during premiere and subsequent weeks with literally all-new product each and every hour of each and every night and maybe, just maybe, end up with 3 or 4 big hits and 7 or 8 moderate ones to help rejuvenate the network. One thing’s for sure, it’s just not going to happen for them by holding onto any of what they’ve got now for another season because that’s already being proven this season.
I have to say I’m very concerned about Chuck’s ratings when it does come back (whenever that is, and for however long). Personally, I am not watching anything on NBC right now. So if I wasn’t following the story through this site and a few others, and if NBC doesn’t air promos for Chuck on other networks (which I doubt they will, even though they should totally air them on USA), I wouldn’t have a clue as to when or if Chuck was returning. I suspect there are a lot of people in that position, and that really concerns me.
If no one is watching your network to begin with, it can bring down even your best shows. And let’s face it, last year Chuck was not one of NBC’s best shows, which is why there was so much renewal drama.
Parks & Recreation and Mercy will end next year.
Trauma this year
Community will get a 2nd season
I think people are slowly finding Parks & Rec again and the word of mouth about how great this season has been. First season was really weak and now I’m a fanboy of what they’ve been doing. Give it another chance if you haven’t this year.
I love Community.
Parks & Rec is garbage.
I agree with Sean. I also predicted Mercy wouldn’t survive and it doesn’t look like it will.
ABC Fanatic – I think your right.
Trauma will burn off all 13 episodes and should be done by December.
Mercy will air out its full season but will likely be done in May.
Parks and Rec will be done in May.
Community will get a second season in May.
Heroes may actually get a fifth year despite low numbers due to good demos.
Law & Order will likely be done by May unless NBC pulls a USA like what they did with Criminal Intent.
Chuck may or may not return, its 50/50.
Everything else is 100% safe including The Biggest Loser, 30 Rock, SVU and The Office.
If NBC wants to keep a medical drama and Mercy doesnt decline to hard. There may be a glimmer of hope for the drama.
I think Corporate Ownership issues may cloud our predictions. NBC may be lightly developing now, because they don’t want to saddle themselves with fixed red ink on risky development. Now, if Feb. or March comes along and the Comcast purchase still isn’t happening, NBC may be stuck giving some low rated shows 13 episode orders just to fill timeslots.
Personally, I’d say:
Trauma – What episode are they currently filming? This might actually get all 13 made, but that’s it.
Mercy – I think AI will finally put the stake through the show.
Heroes – Now looks like a lock for another year. I can’t believe it either.
L&O Original – Def. getting season 21, only question is which network (TNT or NBC).
Chuck – Will only get another season if development trouble as listed above.
P&R / Community – Too early to tell. Also depends on what NBC does with 30 Rock next year – having reached syndicatable levels, do they move it to die at 8:30, bringing in a new show at 9:30, thus having even less room for P&R/Comm.?
i think mercy is great, and the really.. true. its a real medical drama, a real drama about doctors and patient, their relationchip, and focus on the real lives in the hospital where usually half of the patients die. not like House where years after years he has became mntally ill, or Greys anatomy which stress feelings and emotions over the medical stuff and rational experience. i just think Mercy should survive this season, and next, and over..
i think parenthood is likely to go after chuck at 9/8 on monday, or if Nbc wants to destroy the show before it birth, they will put the show on the mercy’s timeslot in spring against AMERICAN idol..
Which show is more expensive to produce, Community or P&R? And how far away is P&R from syndication? Clearly the NBC lineup isn’t working. Only way to fix that is the infusion of new shows.
So, one of them has to go, imo.
Dante, no one knows the real costs, but they’re probably similar. Parks & Recreation has had 28 episodes ordered including last season’s. Conventional wisdom is a minimum of 88 for syndication. That’s not going to save the show.
I really had high hopes for both Parks and Recreation and Community, but the more I watch them, the more I realize how both are so vastly inferior to My Name is Earl. They’re both OK, but Earl was great. I still hope that somehow, some way, NBC will bring Earl back, as unlikely as that may be.
NBC should stand for New Boring Crap. Parks & Recreation is pure, unadulterated crap. The show sucks donkey schlong. Although I do like Amy Poehler, it’s unbelievable the show has lasted as long as it has. I never saw “My Name Is Earl”, which was canceled to make room for P&R, but from what I heard, it was a much better show. Community is a big disappointment as well. I thought with Chevy Chase and Joel McHale, the show would be a sure winner. Was I wrong. I only saw the first show, but it was horrible enough for me not to watch again. Thank God, Modern Family and Cougartown turned out to be good shows. Those are the only good new sitcoms I’ve seen this year. Unfortunately for NBC, those shows are on ABC.
The Jay Leno Show sucks as well. Those “Ten at Ten” segments are absolutely lame. At times, even Jay seems like he’s bored with his own show. Late Night with Jimmy Fallon is another show that should be on the cancellation list. That show is the worst pile of manure, except for, maybe, the current season of Saturday Night Live. Time for Lorne Michaels to retire, and time for NBC to fire the writers and cast and start from scratch. Unlike Jay Leno and Jimmy Fallon, I have to admit that I still watch SNL, mostly because of nostalgia, but also hoping that I might actually see a skit that’s actually funny.
I haven’t seen Trauma or Mercy, so it won’t affect me if those shows are canceled. At NBC still has Biggest Loser and Law and Order shows, even thought the original L&O show may be on its last legs.
NBC definitely has it’s work cut out for them after this season’s disaster. However, like Rick Holy, I have to thank NBC for helping me achieve my goal of watching less TV.
Ding-dong. Trauma is officially dead! Can’t imagine why Heroes would be cancelled now. Seriously — what scripted shows will NBC have left? Comedies, SUV and Chuck and if anything sticks at mid-season — unlikely. It’s truly sad.
Honestly, they need to keep a drama. And since Community has been a much better performer than Parks and Recreation (Parks is totally dragging Community down in the ratings. Community was doing great until they moved its time slot. So, in all fairness, Community is practically giving Parks a handout) I’m thinking they need to can Parks and Rec very quickly. It isn’t funny. The characters are lame. The premise is lame. The whole thing is just a disaster in my opinion. Community has been hilarious from the very beginning with great writers, characters, and actors. I think Mercy has some potential. They can’t get rid of all their medical drama’s.
Didn’t Parks and community already get picked up for full seasons this year?
Parks & Recreation is great. I don’t understand how anyone can like The Office but not like P&R. IT’S THE SAME SHOW, BASICALLY!!!!!!!!
Don’t judge P&R from last season.
Community, however IS NOT FUNNY. Simple as that. 30 Rock and The Office are my favorite shows, but when Community comes on, I pretty much sit stone-faced through the entire show. The bald dean and the Spanish teacher are kind of funny, but overall, Community is not funny.
Parks has a full season but I dont see it getting a third. Community looks likely to get a second though.
The Office is one of my favorite shows and I can’t stand Parks & Recreation. People say they are the same show as if that’s a good thing but P&R is just a straight up rip-off of The Office but nowhere near as funny.
I like Community because I really like Joel McHale but it’s not even close to being as good as Earl was. I have no idea what they are thinking over at NBC but it must be a depressing place to work these days.
Poehler’s talent is being wasted on Parks and Reck which should be cancelled. Pls give Poehler another project to work on.. something like The Office.. They should have made a spinoff.. Parks and Rec was a mistake …
I like Community.. they should keep it on for another season.. Nbc should give them that..
TRAUMA IS CANCELLED
TRAUMA IS CANCELLED
TRAUMA IS CANCELLED
http://www.thrfeed.com/2009/10/nbc-cancels-trauma-.html
Community is the best new show i’ve seen since 30 Rock debuted. I love it, and if it goes away I might cry very masculine tears.
Lol.
Parks & Rec and Community have both been hilarious this year. I hope both get another season. 30 Rock has easily been the least funny of the Thursday comedies thus far.
The Duke Silver Trio >
I never really like Community until I saw the Halloween episode. It was hilarious.