Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 25, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F), (P) | 0.52 |
| Three Rivers (P) | 0.55 |
| Medium (F), (P) | 0.61 |
| Cold Case (P) | 0.61 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.61 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.62 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.68 |
| The Good Wife (P) | 0.90 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (P) | 0.94 |
| CSI:NY (P) | 0.99 |
| The Mentalist | 1.03 |
| CSI (P) | 1.06 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.07 |
| Criminal Minds (P) | 1.18 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles (P) | 1.18 |
| CSI: Miami (P) | 1.22 |
| NCIS (P) | 1.40 |
| Two And A Half Men | 1.41 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.52 |
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The deathwatch for Three Rivers continues. Many predicted CBS would take if off the air before the November sweeps period (which begins on October 29), but it’s still scheduled to air on at least the next two Sundays (of course, that can change in an instant). Predicting the date it gets removed from the schedule is the only parlor game left for us, hoping for more than 13 episodes is folly.
Cold Case wasn’t pre-empted or bumped late by football this season, but against the Yankees ALCS clinching game fell to its lowest rating of the season. Of course for its excuse generating fans, if it’s not one thing, it’s another! It can’t just be that not many people want to watch the show. That’s way too simple a reason.
The Good Wife ratings have stabilized and it’s average is tracking right on the edge between certain renewal and some danger of being canceled. Right now, it’s looking good.
New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried ratings remain horrid, but what’s new? If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be fine for yet another season.
Numb3rs ratings are again close enough to those of Medium and Ghost Whisperer to put its future in less doubt. Last season Numb3rs was renewed with a gap between its Index and that of Ghost Whisperer of 0.10. At that gap or less, I figure the show is safe, above that gap there’s a risk it gets canceled.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
rivers lower than cold case i dont think so and i hope not…
The Good Wife is back in green yay
I’m still 50/50 on Numb3rs. I think it’s fate rests heavily on how many open spots CBS has in May. If Cold Case and 3 Rivers are the only obvious cancelations, at least one OK-rated show will be canceled. Right now, I’d say that Numb3rs and The Good Wife would be on the line (and possibly the Wednesday comedy block, but CBS seems abnormally committed to that…)
Big Bang Theory is the highest-rated show.
Congrads!
I don’t want to go on the cart!
Three Rivers is the lowest rated of the Sunday lineup, unless they want a dead weight that is hurting the rest of the lineup then I think CBS will pull it sooner than later. Isn’t it bad when your 9pm show is being beaten by the two earlier timeslots plus the later slot?
Numb3rs I’m unsure because it has reached the milestone for syndication but would replacing it really be worth it unless they find a show which is compatible enough with Ghost Whisperer and Medium?
“Many predicted CBS would take if off the air before the November sweeps period ”
Come on, admit it, you think NBC is keeping Trauma, and CBS is keeping Three Rivers, just to ruin our track records.
Or they’re playing PR chicken (”After Southland, I’m not canceling Trauma until someone else cancels something, dammit!”).
See, we can come up with new parlor games!
This list is the sign of a network that is doing extremely well. Very impressive for CBS. I’m sure NBC is envious.
Mike G., NBC is envious of a lot of networks
Bill and Tom, it’s only Tuesday, Three Rivers still has a chance of being pulled between now and Friday.
If CBS plans to pull Three Rivers for sweeps, whatever show replaces it (e.g. Flashpoint) won’t get the benefit of much advertising.
Maybe they can just stick in an NCIS repeat since that seems to do well wherever it is. But is substituting one show for another during sweeps “falsifying” results because advertising rates would be set based on a show that doesn’t usually air in that timeslot, and therefore be abnormally high?
@Shaz, Networks do that all the time, I remember ABC being particularly guilty of that a couple of years ago. They had a ridiculous number of specials preempting all their low-performing shows.
They might hold off on canceling TR until after episode 7 which is to air on November 22nd when Mandy Patinkin is to make is guest appearance.
Shaz, advertisers get the demographic group eyeballs they pay for. Sometimes when they originally contracted for them, sometimes in make goods later.
The promos back a month ago were laughable for this turd. How was this greenlit? The guy running throught the hospital with a Coleman cooler containing a heart has an interesting backstory…Oh yeah, and the NAPA Auto parts franchise has an interesting tale about taking parts to a local Ford dealership.
DUMBASSES!
ALL the networks did that during sweeps in the 90s, as I recall. I don’t know why, but there are fewer and fewer ridiculous and blatant sweeps pre-emptions these days. Are network schedulers catching on that shows build up more ratings momentum with fewer pre-emptions? Or are sweeps considered less important? Or is it due to the declining power of the affiliates (assuming they ARE less powerful)?
Mike G., NBC is envious of a lot of networks,
Maybe even CW, at least from a PR perspective. They have a break-out success with Vampire Dairies (puke) but NBC has bombed across the board with their fresh offerings. In great trouble indeed.
I’d say Good Wife will stay unless it drops.
Not expecting “Three Rivers” to be pulled from the schedule — at least if Miss Tassler has anything to say about it. Moved to Saturday to play out its order, maybe. But not pulled. This is CBS’s second-best unintentional comedy (after “CSI: Miami”). How can they pull it? And deprive us of all those laughs?
Besides, they already went ahead and aired a 4th ep. I’m sure Peter Ocko would have liked the same courtesy so his superior “3 lbs.” could have avoided all the “3 eps.” jokes, but alas, Mr. Ocko does not have the same bond with Tassler than Carol Barbee clearly does.
Three Rivers has improved from week to week. The main leads have settled into their roles very nicely and the fans of the show are clamoring for more. This last episode, “Code Green”, was the best one yet. CBS is promoting the next three episodes of Three Rivers (through the Mandy Patinkin episode which will air on November 15) so I remain cautiously optimistic that Three Rivers will continue to air.
NBC is envious of Adult Swim sometimes :p
As for Cold Case, they need a crossover with Two and a Half Men, badly…
…as for Three Rivers, not even Kent Tekulve, Willie Stargell, Dave Parker, Sister Sledge, John Candelaria, the Blues Brothers, the Penguin, Cab Calloway, Mr. Belvedere, Bob Uecker, Vic Morrow from Combat, and Bert Blyleven could save it…play a dirge version of “We Are Family” now, and carve the headstone before the Thanksgiving turkey – er, the Lions game
Chuck Lorre has less money, now, than David Letterman – but that won’t last too long – in fact, I hear Julie Chen may divorce Leslie Moonves, and get an eight figure settlement, only if she marries Lorre – that’s probably the only way CBS can give Lorre his well deserved bonus
As for Christine and Gary – they are praying that David Spade gets what Maura Tierney got
I don’t get why CBS is so willing to let Old Christine and Gary Unmarried receive such dreadful ratings simply to maintain another night of comedy. Wouldn’t it make more sense to cancel both of them and launch two new comedies in the timeslot?
Can someone tell me why sweeps is relevant?
Do more people watch tv in late Oct/Nov?
Don’t worry Three Rivers, you’ll have a place in history as one of the worst shows ever.
‘Three Rivers’ has maintained a remarkably consistent viewership over the last three weeks of 7,329,000, then 7,829,000 and finally 7,782,000 this past Sunday. These numbers are highly consistent with what ‘Numb3rs’ is getting on Friday nights (7,825,000 viewer average over 4 episodes this season). CBS should try a one-week time-period flip of ‘Three Rivers’ and ‘Numb3rs’, perhaps during the November Sweep, just to see if both shows could benefit by being skedded on a different night.
I also think that ‘Three Rivers’ will benefit from the ‘Medium’ lead-in, which now has much of the old ‘Moonlight’ audience (but not demo) sewn up.
The difference between Three Rivers and Numb3rs is that Numb3rs a wins it slot and retaining a good chunk of the Medium audience whereas Three Rivers was fourth in its slot and loses a percentage of The Amazing Race audience. If it moved to Fridays it would most likely die there.
Cold Case is going bye-bye….as well as Old Christine. Bu I’d rather see that go than Cold Case. Cold Case needs a new night…like Fridays.
I personally see Three Rivers failing ebcause it is too much of the same stuff we already have. We don’t need more hospital dramas…
House, Greys, Trauma (to an extent), Mercy, Private Practice, Scrubs (if you want it to be), etc etc, and I mean, how many different hospital shows can people get into? The reason ER was so successful back in the 90s was well, 1) Seinfeld and co as a lead-in, but also, because of the fact that networks weren’t saturated with hospital dramas (not that I can recall of anyway)
, which seems to be the second most sought after type of TV show outside of repetitive crime shows.
Cold Case got much better ratings (not off the chart ratings) when they were at nine last year. Throw in baseball and a show with low ratings leading into it… why it’s ratings are still low.
Cold Case is dead in May. Three Rivers should be dead soon, and Accidentally on Purpose should get an order for additional episodes.
CBS should kill Cold Case by now, a 1.9 18-49 demo is just uhhhh. Especially for CBS.
@vsaint,
As I understand it (and I’m sure someone will correct me if I’m wrong), sweeps are more for the local affiliates than for the networks. Obviously, viewing is tracked throughout the year in many markets, but for the 4 months of sweeps, significanly more people in those markets as well as people in markets that don’t have year-round tracking are included in the Nielsen surveys (usually by paper diaries rather than set-top boxes, so the results are significantly delayed). This allows affiliates to have numbers to use when selling ads with out the expense of year-round tracking.
Holly- I’m liking you more and more.
Yes, sweeps are MUCH more important to local affils. That’s where we get a lot of “thank yous” or have to make a lot of makegoods.
And I agree completely about Numb3rs being dependent on open slots in May.
Good Wife will not get a second season though.
I wouldn’t bet on Good Wife getting a second season, but I do think it’s still possible.
At this point I would lean towards no on Good Wife, especially if ABC airs real competition in the slot in spring. Not to mention increased DVR usage, once AI comes online (and the NCIS/ABC viewers are watching those shows instead at 10pm).
Holly – Its possible good Wife gets another year but not certain. Id say 50/50 leaning toward not. CBS has a very tight schedule and a lot of well performing dramas. Cold Case is a goner but I dont see any other veterans exiting, which may persuade CBS to axe Good Wife just to make room. ABC wont ever have competition, after Forgotten ends, they will just stick another drama in the slot. Wife may temporarily get replaced by Miami Trauma.
Id say if Cold Case and Three Rivers get axed as well as Good Wife, CBS could move The Mentalist to 9:00 sundays (So CBS can compete in the slot) Assuming their are no other timeslot changes and every other drama gets renewed CBS will have 3 open slots Sundays at 10, Tuesdays at 10 and Thursdays at 10. I think Fridays trio is safe at least for another season, Its not something CBS needs to mess with yet.
While its possible Numb3rs could be let go theres ZERO chance the series will be moved this season. The Mentalist is doing the best of any post CSI series and sometimes actually does better than CSI. The Mentalist should air Sundays at 9 for 2010-2011 just because CBS needs help with that night.
I think CBS will cancel Three Rivers at the end of November , after showing the 8 or 9 episodes they already have made. Why?. Well , because CBS was paying Alex O’Loughlin for a whole year in that holding contract and they put a lot of money in Three Rivers too, CBS was sure Alex , his Moonlight fans and some new CBS viewers , would make Three Rivers the new ER for CBS . So, CBS may try at least to get some cash back from this big ugly mess. And Cold Case is a goner by May , so I don’t feel CBS is that worried that Cold Case is suffering because of Three Rivers. So, yes, I would say , 4 or maybe 5 more episodes of Three Rivers before is axed.
Personally I love Cold Case. I think the timeslot is what is killing it! Along with the horrible lead in show like Three Rivers, i mean people watch 5 minutes of it then change the channel. If they would move Cold Case back to 9 and the ratings will go up. CBS uses the timeslots to have an excuse to hack a show! Three Rivers should be axed by Christmas. I mean Cold Case is at a later time and it is still getting better ratings than Three Rivers. CBS needs to get their heads out of their butts and MOVE Cold Case back to last seasons time!!! It deserves a 8th season!!!
I think your post regarding Cold Case was totally uncalled for. The show is brillant. The timeslot may be ruining the ratings but I am sure all the dedicated fans out there still watch it. They have really pumped up the episodes this year from what I have seen. The show is the only thing I watch these days. If it is cancelled then I think the people that have determined for it to be cancelled have serious issues they need to sort out. There are many other shows which I would like to see canceled long before Cold Case.
I agree that Cold Case is a wonderful show and I will be disappointed if they cancel it. The format is unique. I am also developing a liking for Three Rivers: the main actors are good and the supporting cast is wonderful. This show is providing little-known actors with a showcase for their talent. I think that CBS will support this drama and give it a chance to develop a following. CBS has more successful dramas than any other network and I for one think that Three Rivers has the potential to be a success.
I think Rivers could be gone after its next airing, with such bad numbers who knows why CBS would keep it this long.
I surprised that Three Rivers is still being aired. To only hold 50% of its lead in audience is terrible, even on the cW thats grounds for cancellation. And unlike the CW, CBS has a strong lineup and can fill that hole.
And not only has it done considerable damage to its 9pm hour (both in 18-49 but also in 25-54) that destruction of TAR’s demographics (CBS strongest performer in adults 18-34, 18-49 and 25-54 for the last three years on Sunday) has also crippled Cold Case (a show already close to cancellation).
I don’t care how one personally feels about the show (but even if it was my favorite program I would be incredibly stupid to allow that show to continue).
It offers nothing to CBS except for a black eye. It isn’t a critical darling, it hasn’t generated water cooler buzz, it hasn’t been a success in either of three primary demo groups.
CBS also has 22 Flashpoint episodes ready to go as well as 2 midseason dramas (Miami Trauma and The Bridge) Everything else has a full season, so the fact that Three Rivers is still around is miraculous.
If Fox beats CBS on the November sweeps, the Sunday schedule would be one of the reasons for that
About 3R: as far as I know, they are still shooting it. My question is: if CBS has in mind to pull it from the schedule before runnung out its 13 episodes, why they didn’t tell them to shut down production?
Ten p.m. on a Sunday night is already putting a show in a bad spot. While CC’s ratings weren’t off the charts last year, people actually watched The Amazing Race. Put a show after a program nobody really watches, TR and it’s ratings will suffer.
The question with Three Rivers is not if it gets axed but when it gets axed. My guess is that if the ratings on Sunday are as bad as previous weeks then that will be the final straw, they could be kind and dump it on Saturdays but I doubt it myself especially if NCIS reruns can do much better.
Jon, very good question actually. Being there is no Sunday night football this weekend, do you think that is why they are waiting on TR? Waiting to see how it does without the football competition.
I think this guy, whoever he is, has it out for 3R. It’s not the best show on the air but it’s not as bad as he makes it out to be. It has a lot going for it, including a stellar cast, and it’s only going to get better. It’s holding its audience week-to-week and that’s against the biggest ratings Sunday night has seen in a decade: with football and baseball games (powerhouses), Desperate Housewives and demo favorites – Cleveland Show and Family Guy – competing. Can he please move on to bashing god-awful shows like Criminal Minds, CSI New York, Cougartown, Eastwick and NCIS LA? Those shows are for the brain-dead. Also, 3R has already saved lives by educating people about organ donation. That’s a fact. Not just a judgemental rant.
the biggest ratings Sunday night has seen in a decade
Back that up, please? (Just stating something and claiming it to be fact does not actually make it fact.)
Hollywood: you mistake this site for one that focuses on relative show quality. It isn’t. It’s a site that focuses on numbers, and in this post specifically adults 18-49 seasonal averages. Three Rivers has the worst average of any scripted show on CBS that’s not on a Friday.
We don’t opine on whether Three Rivers is better than Criminal Minds in terms of show quality. But when it comes to the numbers, Criminal Minds is much, much better.
Also, 3R has already saved lives by educating people about organ donation. That’s a fact.
Is it?
*sigh* and me without my bingo card…
Marie, there’s no football but there’s baseball which will have an impact.
Hollywood, Three Rivers has the worst ratings on Sundays not only on CBS but in general, only Football Night in America, American Dad and the 7.30pm slot on FOX does lower and considering CBS is the number 1 network, 7m on a Sunday is not good.
Jon, American Dad is currently averaging over 3.0. How does it do worse than Three Rivers?
Julia, it has fewer Alex’s!
That “Bring out your Dead” title has me replaying Monty Python in my head.
Kathy B. as it should!
I’ve now watched 3 of the 6 IFC Python 40th anniversary episodes. Love them!
Ratings wise, not demo wise Julia in regard to American Dad, I think Football Night in America does better in the demo than Three Rivers although it’s ratings tend to flux from week to week.
Ah, well, as you know, the demo is all that matters.
Yes, the demo IS the only thing that matters to the networks and to
advertisers. The advertisers buy time on the shows that offer them the biggest bang for their buck.
If a show isn’t high enough in the desired demographic, it’ll be shown the door and something else that might attract the highest possible numbers of desired demographic placed in that time slot. Advertisers pay top dollar for ad space on the highest rated shows, and networks are in the business to make money. They’re not philanthropic organizations.
That’s just the way it works.
Three Rivers is way better than ER and that kept that crap on for how long not to mention some other really really syupid shows. Its only aired a few shows, for god sake give it a chance. Just because is doesn’t take place in NY, LA or Chicago. Not to mention Pittsburgh has some of the top Hospitals in the country, so its not hard to believe the story lines.
Jason, Three Rivers may be the greatest show ever conceived by man, but it doesn’t matter. ER was in the top 10 shows for its first ten seasons (top 5 for the first nine seasons, and fluctuated between #1 and #2 the first five seasons.) Three Rivers won’t even make top 50.
I’m just trying to think of the reasoning as to why TR hasn’t been pulled already (it boggles the mind really) and the only thing I could think of is that they are wanting to see what it does without football – one less obstacle if you will. They had baseball AND football to contend with last weekend.