Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 1, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Ugly Betty (S), (F), (P) | 0.41 |
| Hank | 0.57 |
| Eastwick | 0.68 |
| the forgotten | 0.69 |
| The Middle | 0.73 |
| Castle (P) | 0.77 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) | 1.06 |
| FlashForward (P) | 1.09 |
| Cougar Town (P) | 1.17 |
| Modern Family | 1.23 |
| Private Practice (P) | 1.29 |
| Desperate Housewives (P) | 1.59 |
| Grey’s Anatomy (P) | 1.87 |
-
Fans of Hank, Eastwick and the forgotten, which are all certain to be canceled because of their woeful ratings, can be happy that the accountants are now in control of the broadcast networks, and instead of removing poor performers from the schedule early they’re letting them finish airing most or all of the 13 episodes of each that were ordered.
Fans of both Castle and The Middle can rest easy for now (although I don’t expect them to), their shows will air all the way through the 22 episodes ordered this season. However, their returns for 2010-2011 are very much in doubt. The relative success of new ABC shows this spring may determine their fates.
Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It’s ratings are dreadful. Could ABC keep it longer to produce even more episodes regardless of the ratings? It’s not 100% out of the question, but it’s a real longshot.
Against lots of CBS and a few CW repeats last week, some individual ABC shows had ratings upticks that gave the craziest of their fans some false hopes. Don’t be fooled, what really matters for renewal or cancellation is how they do vs. their ABC stablemates. It’s a bit like the old joke about two guys with a bear chasing them. You don’t need to out run the bear to survive, just the other guy.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
-
Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
hmmmm Castle is surviving and thats a good thing.
I’m still on the record that the forgotten is a show with an excellent premise. The acting in the first few episodes seemed somewhat rigid early on, but the last couple of episodes the actors and actresses have done much better selling the scenes emotionally. I hope that if the show is cancelled which seems almost certain, that they let the series somewhat wrap up as we are just now learning more information about Alex Donovan and the pain he has went through in losing his child. Here is hoping that his child is found at the series end.
This will be the 2nd ABC series in a row that was my favorite (Life on Mars was excellent I thought) that is cancelled too soon in my book.
Like I said before, Hank, The Forgotten, and Eastwick arent doing that bad that they wouldnt be shown all their episodes. Plus ABC is giving Eastwick better promotion lately. It may have a tiny chance of getting more episodes.
I think V will premiere big. Ive seen so much promotion from ABC and its like all over the internet. I dont see how it cant get at least a 4.0.
Rob, yes, Eastwick has a tiny chance of getting more episodes, and according to quantum mechanics, I have a tiny chance of being teleported to Jupiter. I wouldn’t count on either happening.
I dunno Rob, as alluded to by Bill the accountants are calling the shots and that is the reason they are showing most of the episodes of these three.
Michael, Im not counting on it. I just said tiny chance. If V does premiere big, there is even more of a chance of it cancelling. If V ends up bombing which i highly doubt, it has more of a chance. Plus theres no hope that any midseason replacement would do better.
Rob, Eastwick’s last episode got a 1.8- I’m sure that there’s SOME midseason replacement that could do better.
Michael, theres no guarantee. Is ABC just gonna keep cancelling shows in that timeslot just because they cant get above 2.0? They will lose a lot of their audience who wont even bother to try any of their new shows if they are just gonna cancel.
I can see ABC keeping Castle for another year. I don’t have faith that ABC’s mid-season will blow the ratings out of the water. However, if it doesn’t improve, I can see Season 3 being its last (unless their 10p ratings mirror this year’s as well).
Does anyone know if V is going to premire good tonight?
Eastwick, The Forgotten and Hank will all finish in December, should none of them be pulled. My best guess is that Eastwick finishes all 13 episodes, Forgotten gets pulled mid december and Hank gets pulled mid november-mid december. Ugly Betty and Lost will both end in May. The Middle and Castle are 50/50 for surviving into 2010-2011. Everything else is safe.
The Forgotten is actually getting decent but I’d rather ABC save Castle.
ugly betty is getting so good, they should just move it to tuesday or wednesday…
I still can’t see ABC leaving UB on Fridays, even if it is just to get enough episodes for syndication. It’s ratings are atrocious, and it’s down 50% from last year.
I guess I am in the minority bur Cougartown is cringeworthy. Courtney Cox overdoes it in every scene which is understandable when trying to compensate for material that is not funny.
I’m really impressed with The Middle. While the ratings aren’t spectacular, you have to take its awful lead-in into consideration. I hope ABC decides to stick with it for another season, but decision time is a long winter away!
Castle needs to just make it to season 3 and it will get renewed every year until it tires out as syndication is starting to come into play now.
Cougar Town is feeding off of Modern Family so that show should not be making it to season 3.
The Forgotten is the one show that needs to find a better timeslot b/c if this show was on CBS then it would clearly be getting better ratings. Its a show with a limited fan base but it still has room to grow just like Castle has in a short period of time.
Doug, ABC will definitely leave Betty on the schedule for the remainder of this season. I agree that having it there next season is a huge longshot.
What? “The Forgotten” has the best time slot ABC could have given it. “Without a Trace’s” time slot last season and one of the select few time slots where CBS doesn’t air a procedural.
The show isn’t an outright disaster, but it does need to show some improvement (or at least not lose the audience it has now when “Dancing with the Stars” wraps on November 24). Certainly, it needs creative improvement. The women on the show are all wallpaper.
ABC seems to have the hugest gap between the shows actually doing well and shows failing in the index. CBS and FOX have meandering shows like Bones or The Good Wife, but with ABC there is nothing between decent B&S and horrible Castle.
Ugly Betty has been REALLY REALLY REALLY REALLY REALLY amazing this season! Every episode it just keeps getting better and it kills me that ABC is done with the show =(
ABC is the worst network out there. I blame it’s relations with money hungry Disney, haha just kidding, well not really.
I agree, Ugly Betty has been great this season! At least we got 4 seasons…a lot of new shows are hardly making it at all. Ugly Betty is seriously the only creative show they have. The rest are all pretty much the same old crap.
@Dan, just out of curiosity what makes you think that the forgotten will get pulled before Eastwick? the forgotten is a tick higher (basically neck to neck) on the index. I think they will both be pulled by December, and Hank will be the one to have all 13 episodes air because ABC doesn’t have anything that they can air in it’s place other then a repeat of one of the other comedies. They may try a Scrubs or Better Off Ted repeat at 8, but I don’t see that doing any better then what Hank is doing now.
Bill – just look at NBC last season – if that bear is really angry and really hungry, and chasing two shows, both shows had better outrun that bear…
…given ABC’s midseason success from seasons’ past, I can see it now – think Wacky Races at Disneyland, as eight or nine ABC programs are chased by a dozen ravenous bears from downtown Anaheim to the unemployment building in beautiful downtown Burbank, with sixteen news copters filming in HD…
…it may be possible that none, not even Katic or Heaton, will survive (although I wouldn’t want to cross either of those two ladies, even if I did weigh 1600 pounds and had eight inch claws and teeth)…
…they could always expand Tom Bergeron to five nights per week, after all
I remember when Castle was at the very bottom of the list.
Now..it’s in the middle.
Betty pulled a 1.1 in the Friday finals, and I think it could go even lower, sad.
If anything for Betty it will get a short 13 episode season to make it to 100 but even thats a long shot. Its more definite that the show is cancelled in May. Eastwick being pulled on November 18 isnt good news, I really hop ABC runs all episodes though.
Tommy – I believe because ABC seems to “like” Eastwick they will allow the series to atleast run through all episodes. Furthermore Eastwick is unlikely to drop significantly anymore from now until December 16, however once Dancing ends, Forgotten is likely to have a significant drop airing out of Scrubs and Ted that ABC is even more likely to pull the show. If ABC had Samantha Wjo they could move that to 8 but they dont so Hank is likely to be pulled by December and at the least well get Modern Family repeats at 8 or a comedy shuffle resulting in out of the 5 remaining ABC comedies (Scrubs, Better Off Ted, The Middle, Modern Family, Cougar Town) 4 will remain on the wednesday block and the remaining comedy could be moved to air its episodes post Dancing. Something else ABC could do is after they cancel Hank, they could premiere Romantically Challenged in the 8:00 slot wednesday and leave the rest of the shows where they are. Once Romantically runs out of steam, ABC could then shuffle the Tuesday duo, to wednesdays and then move The Middle to air post Dancing.
@ Dan, I think ABC likes everything that they have on the air, or at least their PR people paint that picture (Not to mention the fact that ABC is bumping Eastwick for Janet Jackson so much for liking it more.) I still believe that when both dramas get canceled it will happen at the same time. ABC is known for canceling in one shot, like when they canceled DSM, PD, and ES. Hank’s fate may be spelled out at the same time, but ABC treats comedies differently then they do dramas. So Hank may stick around until it runs out of episodes and then quietly drift off the scene. As for Romantically Challenged, I don’t think that’s going to start airing until the 2010-11 season. I would think that some sort of news would have come out by now if it was going to have a midseason premiere.
Tommy, PR people are paid to like everything, god help them if they can’t make you think they do.
Eastwick isn’t that bad. From what I’ve heard, some ABC execs like it too. Maybe they will give it a shot in another slot. As for Betty, it deserves another time period. ABC’s syndication dollar greed is best demonstrated by the fact that we are being subjected to another season of Scurbs, so maybe Betty could have a shot. I still like it personally.
Oh I know Bill, and ABC has some of the best PR people in the business. After all they managed to spin Ugly Betty beating Dollhouse as a huge accomplishment…lol
Lucky – The difference is Betty is a drama which since its twice as long as a comedy and more expensive, the series may get let go around this May while Scrubs can go on for as long as ABC wants it to. Furthermore Scrubs was only just picked up by ABC 2 years ago and is around to prove to ABC that they arent failing comedy wise.
Tommy – ABC axed the trio on November 20, but they did let the series run out and I think (and hope they do thesame with Eastwick and let the show wrap up airing its eps (like what FOX is doing with Dollhouse & Brothers and what NBC is doing with Trauma). ABC usually lets its comedies run out but since they will have 6 on the air by the time Ted premieres they may just pull Hank from the sched. ABC has pulled underperforming comedies from the sched around that time before (Help Me, Help You and Cavemen) and since the other comedy trio has been given a full year Hank being pulled can come at any time. Romantically Challeneged can be announced soon if ABC plans to premiere the series in January. The show can also air in March, but I dont think ABC will hold it to 2010-2011. The problem is it wont fit in with the rest of ABC’s new comedies any better than Hank.
I’m not saying they wont air all the episodes of both. What I’m saying is that both will probably get the same deal, both will be pulled from the schedule and will air the remaining episodes at a later time (most likely in the summer.)
I did some searching and it looks like Romantically will be premiering midseason. But that’s just more incentive for ABC to keep Hank until it’s finished it’s Episodes and then replace it with Romantically Challenged in the beginning of the year.
Tommy – If I were ABC I would air out all of its episodes through January and then premiere Romantically but ABC isnt that network. They prefer to finish whatever they have in December (like they did with last year’s trio) and start fresh January. CBS is more likely to just finish a series out through January (like The Class and Worst Week). It would be easier for ABC to air out all of Eastwick and The Forgotten as well as Hank (and be done with all 3 shows) but as you can see, ABC would rather preempt the series for specials. Unlike CBS, however if the three series do have unaired episodes, you can expect to see them burned off in the summer. Again I would air all of Eastwick out through January 6, Forgotten through January 5, and Hnak through January 6 just to end the three series but knowing ABC, atleast 1 will be pulled.
The only reason I think Hank won’t be pulled from the schedule is because a 30 minute timeslot is harder to fill then a hour is. Sure they could do repeats, but fresh Hank makes more sense then a repeat would. The dramas on the other had can be replaced with hour long holiday specials much more easily. I know that there are 30 min holiday specials like The Grinch, and Charlie Brown, but I’m sure those were already planned when ABC made their schedules since they are classics that run every year.
Tommy – Those are planned and some run in Tuesday8-9 slots (and will during December when V goes on hiatus) The problem is if Hank isnt doing well, ABC could always fins more 30 minute holiay specials or repeat some to fill the half hour. They did it with Cavemen and Carpoolers in 2007. While new Hank will liekly air throughout December, dont be surprised if the comedy gets preempted a couple of times. If a repeated special does better than a new ep of a losing series than why air the losing series. Its different for dramas because they are more expensive to produce to while hank can be dumoped any time, it may make more sense to atleast air out all eps of the dramas (like Eastwick and The Forgotten). I dont think ABC would keep Hank in January if they could just schedule repeats (until a new replacement is found) ABC doesnt do that. Id like to see all of Hank get burned off but knowing them, it wont happen.
Dan,
I know what the difference is between Ugly Betty and Scrubs. For the record, Scrubs has some hefty paychecks to write for the low ratings it brings in, but it still makes more than it costs. Meanwhile, ABC has found ways to cut back on UB expenses and make the show more profitable by airing instant repeats on TVGuide Channel and moving the entire production to NYC for cheaper production costs and tax breaks last year. Therefore, regardles of if it is a 30 comedy or an hour drama, it all comes down to if it makes more money than it loses. On a side note, ABC or any other network will drop a drama, like CW did to TBL, just as effortlessly as they would a sitcom if it doesn’t go with their plans.
Doesn’t Castle get some slight help from the extra money ABC is getting from the Book that was released too? or does ABC get nothing from that?
If Ugly Betty fails, it’s by decision of ABC. The move to Fridays was completely unwarranted, it was doing fine on Thursdays. It’s incredibly witty and creative, but as with Pushing Daisies and so many other shows, quality never assures longevity.
And Eastwick isn’t nearly as bad as people are trying to make it sound. It’s a fun show with a sexy cast and I’m enjoying every episode. Most of the negativity seems to be coming from a few individuals with a lot of web presence who are trying to condemn the show without watching it.
Kyle, UB wasn’t doing well on Thursdays and that’s why it was moved to Fridays. ABC would have completely canceled the show if it wasn’t so close to having enough episodes for syndication. So if I was a fan, I would be happy to have any new episodes at all, even if those episodes air on Friday night.
William wrote:
Doesn’t Castle get some slight help from the extra money ABC is getting from the Book that was released too? or does ABC get nothing from that?
You would think ABC would get a cut from any books based on the series. It is their show.
tvbythenumbers can’t wait to see 3 entire crew loose their job, so they keep writing things like “eastiwck canceled” even if is not, so they hope audience stop watching it and in the end they can say “see, i was right!”
The problem with Eastwick is that most of people barely know about this show. It’s like people dont give it a chance. I saw by casuality the 1st episode in the web, and I was expecting a bad show, and suprise! the show was good, very entertaining, good actors, and solid plot. I won’t lie it has some flaws, lot of times tries to copy deseperate housewives conversations or anothers copy charmed but it’s better than this shows and with time could have found their own personality and be a very good show.
But th eproblem is this, people don’t know about the show or they think it’s a bad show without giving a chance.
Another candidate for a future set of bingo cards:
“But the network said they like it.”
I haven’t seen a single episode of Eastwick, but thats just because I want Jamie Ray Newman to go back to Eureka. That and I find the premise uninteresting.
Forgotten is a great show. Each episode is getting better. The only problem is: ABC is not promoting it. Most people dont know about the show, you dont see any Ads for it. I really hope, they give it a chance.
Ugly Betty started out its first season really high on thursdays but then slowly declined season after season (like My Name is Earl and Heroes) Betty is in its fourth season and will have just enough episodes for syndication so ABC is ready to dump the series come May. Betty was originally supposed to premiere its first season on a friday but ABC moved it to Thursdays at 8 and bumped the comedies. If they hadn’t done that, we probably wouldnt have been talking about the series now. Scrubs is new and revamped so ABC can keep it as long as they feel necessary.
ABC should just fire and replace the writers for Hank. They have that power. The show has the talent to work, but the writing is just bad.
Hank is in the same position now that Cheers was in its first year. The producers redid that which needed re-doing for Cheers and it worked out well. The same thing would be true for Hank.
I love The Forgotten! I think if they were to move it to Wednesday’s it’d fare better. Tuesday night is CBS night and Although it doesn’t come on at the same time as NCIS, a lot of people forget to change the channel at 10/9 central. It has a good premise and although I’m in really into crime shows I like this one a lot!
Chuck From Tacoma – Too bad ABC doesnt have According to Jim anymore. ABC could just keep Hank and pair the two, since they are similiar enough. However Hank will get pulled soon, I wish ABC would air all episodes through January but knowing them they wont. Forgotten will likely get pulled when it airs a couple of episodes out of Scrubs and Ted and Eastwick could air all 13.
William writes, “Doesn’t Castle get some slight help from the extra money ABC is getting from the Book that was released too? or does ABC get nothing from that?”
I’m reminded of the Fall of ‘84 when CBS had a can’t-miss new sitcom inspired by the breakout success of MTV and produced by the people who did “Flashdance.” “Dreams” starring John Stamos and Jami Gertz as a wannabe rock band. This fake band had a real major-label deal with Columbia Records (owned by CBS), a soundtrack album, a 7″ single (written by Billy Steinberg and Tom Kelly, who would soon be responsible for a string of #1 hits), and a music video for the single playing on MTV. All those tie-ins and CBS shitcanned the thing after 4 broadcasts.
“Castle” isn’t a Bottom 5 show like “Dreams” was, though, so I imagine the tie-in money from it is more likely to tilt the scales.
Scrubs is a waste of valuable time that could be used to air a much more worthy series. Scrubs is only on the air to make syndication money. As for being revamped, that is only because half the stars of the show wouldn’t even agree to a full season of episodes. Ugly Betty is a quality show that has a small, yet devoted audience not unlike Heroes. It will likely get axed because of the numbers, but as evidenced by Scurbs and Friday Night Lights, if there is a way to keep making money, they might go with that. It all depends on if the new pilot season brings in the new Modern Family and Flashforward or the new Cavemen.
Even with garbage numbers, Scrubs may even make it to 2010-2011. But based on the way the other comedies are doing (The Middle, Modern Family, Cougar Town) It may not.
I heard today that they are pulling The Forgotten of the air ASAP… Is this true??? I hope not…
Wow I watched the “Hanksgiving” show tonight, first things that draws my attention is the 4 Exective Producers, 4 Asst. Exective Producers, 4 consultant Producers. 12 Producers watched this show and thought it was funny? The biggest problem with this show is there is no set-up for Kelsy brand of comedy, No Roz or Bulldog, brother or father for him to play off of to make his character funny. There aren’t even any likeable characters on the show for us to wrap our brain around. Fracier was a good show, Back To You, could have been a good show if FOX would have given it time to grow. There were at least characters on there that were funny. Love Kelsy sorry to see him go but too much of this show is about a main character “Hank” that just really isn’t that interesting. Bad casting/Bad Writing ect…..
Hank will be pulled soon. Its just sad that this is what traditional multi camera sitcoms has come too. Its odd that ABC aired Hank’s thanksgiving episode tonight rather than on the 18th or 25th. Maybe they know that it wont last that long.
Justine – Where did you hear that about The Forgotten? I expect ABC to keep the series on atleast until the big drop on December 1.
And they killed the ONLY cute guy on eastwick. good for them!
@ Cliff,
I actually got my first real laugh out of “Hank” last night, but sadly it came at the expense of Hank’s brother in-law when he went to fry the turkey and things went boom. Other than that it was another episode that required intravenous Novcane to get through. Since they broadcast the Thanksgiving episode I’m guessing that they may not burn through all 13 episodes much to the chagrin of the accountants.
Every show about how big a salami sandwich someone can eat while on a blind date with a dogm simultaneoulsy enduring a monster tire obstacle course stays on forever, but Eastwick and Castle are in danger? People totally deserve the TV we get if those numbers reflect demand. Both shows are well-written, original without being really difficult in any way. I’m trying to get used to thinking about shows as mini-series… that way I don’t stress about cancellations, just enjoy what we get, and wait for someone else to give a crap about plot, character and style.
They probably aired the Hank Thanksgiving episode to make room for the Charlie Brown Thanksgiving special to air closer to the holiday. Sometimes they seem to show specials on nights that tend to have lower viewership, such as the night before Thanksgiving, rather than “waste” a new episode of a more costly series. Not that there is any hope for Hank, I’m just saying why they might have aired it early.
Ah, Dios mio!! I don’t own a TV, I own a computer, and then ONLY show I devote any of my free time to is Ugly Betty. I am loyal, have been loyal, and will be loyal for as long as it’s aired. When is the system going to start registering online viewing when tallying up? They slip in the ads here as well. I couldn’t watch the Friday time slot, even if I had a TV. For the sake of humanity and all that is good I hope UB keeps on keeping on. Ay carumba!
@lefoxtrot
When is the system going to start registering online viewing when tallying up?
The nets do track online viewing. It’s not reported in the numbers we get here, but the networks know how many people are watching online. The problem is, it simply isn’t that many people, relatively speaking. Compared to TV viewing, online viewing is basically a rounding error.
In the spirit of “TV Everywhere” the goal is to track the online viewing once they have the exact same national commercial load as on television (one of the reasons that they haven’t been counted up to now is that they don’t run the same ads or nearly as many of them). Nielsen’s goal is to have that measurement in place by sometime in 2011, though some of the cable networks (at least those under the Turner umbrella) want it in place in time for the summer 2010 season.
The good news is, it will be coming. The bad news could be that it won’t matter for our purposes. While the plan does call for inclusion of online commercial viewing into the C3 numbers advertisers and networks use to buy and sell advertising, it’s not clear to me what we will see in terms of program viewing. It is clear to me it won’t influence the Live+SD program ratings we report for the overnight results, and I’m not sure yet whether Nielsen will do anything differently with the weekly (currently Live+SD) program viewing numbers or even with the Live+7 program viewing numbers. It will be verrrrry interesting to see how that all shakes out.
the forgotten would have been wiser if they had a better lead Actor. Christian Slater who had a family member who was or is a casting director. I would rather they picked someone like
Dean Cain, James Caviezel, Andy Garcia,Freddie Prinze Jr
someone nice on the eyes while they are solving crime.
Forgotten has just gotten 5 more eps and will air through March atleast. Eastwick and likely Hank will wrap up December-Jan.