Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 1, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.54 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.72 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.77 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.77 |
| Community | 0.87 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.97 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 1.01 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.21 |
| The Office (P) | 1.62 |
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There has been a surprising amount of ‘net chatter in the past week about a rumor claiming NBC told the writers of Heroes to prepare for the end of the show. I have no way of judging the truthfulness of that, and there may be some other (unknown to me) factor that could take the show off the air. However, looking at the ratings, while the show is way down from its earlier years, considering that its on NBC, Heroes is far from being dead. It’s average, and networks don’t typically cancel their average shows, particularly ones that air at 8pm.
I am a stubborn man, but I’d like to think not infinitely so. If the 3 CBS scripted shows can survive on Friday’s with their ratings, there’s a chance that Law & Order can too. This has nothing to do with the check from Dick Wolf that arrived yesterday.
The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates, not a drama like Mercy.
Trauma didn’t receive an order for its “back 9″ episodes, so it’ll last at most 13 episodes and then be canceled. It may be pulled from the schedule sooner than that.
Although SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it was limited run, I’m not including it.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Clearly the ratings suggest SVU will be back, but does that mean next summer we’ll get a fresh contract dispute for the leads?
Jay Leno may have given NBC a hint:
Leno: If asked, I’d go back ‘Tonight’
Jay Leno says he would return to the “Tonight Show” time slot if the NBC suits asked.
“If that’s what they wanted to do, sure,” he told Broadcasting and Cable magazine. “That would be fine if they wanted to.”
NBC decided five years ago to replace Leno with Conan O’Brien on “Tonight.” Once that change neared, NBC had to deal with the risk of losing Leno – who was No. 1 in late night for most of his 17-year-run there – to another network. Instead, he’s hosting a weeknight 10 p.m. comedy show, which is drawing about 6 million viewers a night.
“Would I have preferred to stay at 11:30? Yeah, sure. I would have preferred that,” Leno told the magazine. “I think it’s too soon to say whether I regret anything or not.”
Leno said he’s in for the long haul at 10 p.m.
“I like this challenge of 10 o’clock,” he said. “Sometimes going against insurmountable odds and making a little progress is maybe more satisfying than going into a situation where you’re going to win no matter what.”
Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/tv/2009/11/03/2009-11-03_innertube_jay_leno_says_if_asked_hed_go_back_tonight.html#ixzz0VpUKrIGz
I have to point out, Heroes’s ratings have been UP each week for teh past 3-4 weeks. The show is getting back to it’s best, and people are obviously catching on again.
Yes, Heroes did go down a wrong path, so to speak and lost its touch in season 2-3. Season 4 however, is great right now. I hope it continues to do better & better.
Chuck Tranberg, old news, plus is the concept that Leno would want to go back to 11:30 even news at all?
If Heroes comes back next year, expect it to look quite different. Budget cuts across the board. While its average shows it is possibly safe, there’s no way they can justify the cost for their weekly ratings. Already they are shedding some cast. Who knows, maybe they can split the cast into different volumes, and interweave the story-lines. That would keep actors employed, but save money. HIGHLY doubt that will happen. For all purposes, it may end up like Earl, where the producers just won’t justify cutting costs, so they just end the show.
Mercy will not get a second season.
It depresses me that it is just about a sure thing Parks will be back next year. I know people say it’s so much better than last year; but to me that’s kind of like saying your trash can doesn’t smell as bad as last week’s trash can. Still doesn’t smell like roses, people.
I really think community may be one and done. If Parks comes back next year, Community may be moved to let a new show come about. Or get a mid-season slot a la Chuck. Hope it survives, cause I love it.
L&O will be back next year. Bet on it.
NBC – AXE THE JAY LENO SHOW, U HAD BETTER RATINGS WITH ER. AND MANY OTHER SHOWS
Sorry Robert missed your post from yesterday.
I for one hope that this is Heroes final season.
Don’t get me wrong, I love the show, but I think we need a definitive end, and I’d like it to be when the show is still good. I don’t want to see it jump the shark and live on for years and years getting worse and worse. This season is the best since the first, and I think it will be a good note to go out on.
The ratings suggest that NBC may want to keep it yet another year, but I’m hoping they play it safe and end Heroes before it turns into a turd. Just my opinion.
About Mercy, I still think it’s a little early to say it for sure won’t be back next season. A lot can change by May.
Why is Mercy likely to be cancelled? Park & Rec got 0.77 as well, yet you have it as in danger?
@Ryan: ER cost FAR to much, and with those ratings and demos, it wasn’t worth keeping, especially in these times.
@John: As for Mercy and Parks & Rec getting 0.77, re-read the third paragraph:
“The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates, not a drama like Mercy.”
@Anthony and Mark: Sorry! I just skipped that whole paragraph. D: I like Mercy, it’s better than Greys, and as Greys had the right lead-in for its first season, it was able to gain a following. NBC, however, haven’t really good many good lead-ins, and that’s letting the show die. However, NBC are apparently intrigued by the next few episodes, and its lost its ’soapy’ feeling, and is focusing on the patients more.
*Bill.
I thought Heroes hit the point of no return but I gotta admit that last night’s episode gave me hope for the first time in a very long time.
Masi Oka was FANTASTIC last night and the whole future Hiro thing was hysterical.
I am already WAY too attached to Parks and Rec to be comfortable with those numbers. I haven’t been this worried about a cancellation since The Office was on the bubble back in spring of 2005.
Now if it was significantly ahead of Community I would feel better, but being neck and neck (and even dropping last week) freaks me out. At least theworst case scenario is the full second season pick up.
They should cancel NBC.
Season 4 of Heroes is “great” for certainly definitions of “great”, including “I have the long-time memory of a goldfish”.
People actually tuned in to watch that retcon-fest? I’m amazed.
I agree with JaySin420
Heroes has gotten better this season but it needs to keep it up and make up for the last 2 seasons
@Jaysin420, I agree. I think the worst part about season 3 was that there was little to no humor. Well, except for “Cake?” that is.
Congrats to The Office for having the 2nd highest index of any show on any network.
If it wasn’t for that blasted Grey’s Anatomy!
If Heroe is canceled, what serie replace the show?
^Probably a new show. NBC has a few major projects in development, but it’s far too soon to guess which ones will make it to series.
NBC’s current and upcoming lineup is just way too thin with no real prospects on the horizon that can take control and make a big splash. Heroes would likely continue to stay by default since there’s simply nothing to really trot out there at the moment. It’s like when a football team doesn’t really have a good quarterback, the backup quarterback is a washed up veteran past his prime (e.g. whatever team signs Vinny Testeverde) and the third stringer is nowhere near ready to play, so they just have to continue to play the starter as a stop gap for the position until the team can draft someone with potential or hope that something good will come up. But until then it’ll just be the same starter and they have to settle with the mediocrity, and while there may be flashes of brilliance, it’ll never take home anything really good in the end and be lucky to have a .500 record. And of course the major problem is, NBC’s “drafting history” has been very poor.
Brian- I got your point, but the sports analogy threw me. Either way, I think you are correct. I think as long as the producers agree to budget cuts, the show will be back. But like I said in my first post, who knows. earl had a shot to coming back, but the creator didn’t want to lose the single-camera aspect, since he thought it would kill the feel of the show.
Yeah, Heroes was pretty solid episode. I had flashes of the 1st season.
They should have more centric episodes like yesterday with Hiro and HRG.
Hereoes is a bore. Plain and simple. Nowhere near as good as the first year.
Bring back Chuck.
wasn’t trauma just canceled
@frelling_cute
apparently so is spelling.
I think Parks is in more danger of being cancelled than likely some danger. Its clearly the weak show of the night. COmmunity has a good chance of getting a second season and Mercy has somewhat of an OK chance. NBC could decide to end Law & Order and Heroes or continue either show. We’ll know soon enough. Every other series is safe and Trauma already has been axed.
I think Heroes should end this year, but if NBC orders another season make that the final one.
Dan, we will not know soon enough about Parks or Community. I don’t expect news on them until spring.
Bill – I dont expect NBC to announce either of the series’ fates until May either. I just have a feeling that should either be renewed, it will be Community over Parks. I wish both could stay because I personally like them both but knowing NBC, one will be gone.
Don – If I were NBC Id axe Heroes, but their in such bad shape that even with its sinking numbers, they still need the series. SVU is NBC’s only better performing drama. Law & Order will probably end after this season despite the extra 4 episodes and who knows about how Mercy and Chuck will fare throughout the season. Not to mention NBC still has new midseason dramas to worry about. Trauma and Southland are the only two dramas from NBC axed so far, with the former finishing up its order and the latter picked up by TNT.
I want Heroes to end after just one more series. Only have it end with Peter killing Sylar, pretty please. Have peter train hard with his powers he possibly gets back after his brother dies. To me this would be the best way for Heroes to end. Ever since the begining Peters faced off against Sylar and lost, well except that one episode in Villains. I want to see Peter win while being on the side of good. So I say yes give Heroes another Volume, just please let it be about Peter V.S Sylar rivalry.
I’ve watched every episode of Heroes since it’d first aired. And while season 2 was certainly an unorganized mess, this season continues to slide below mediocrity. These last few episodes have been a combination of predictable and uninteresting, covered with a thick layer of weaksauce.
This new “evil gang”, the carnival with it’s charismatic, yet thoroughly uninteresting leader has reached the point of irritating and annoying. We went from Sylar, to Arthur Patrelli, to a carni guy who commands fear by virtue of the writing, not by any show of ‘power’ or intellectual leadership that I’ve seen.
This is the last season folks. Gaspin isn’t looking at the NBC averages like they used to anymore. They’re simply too low to put as much stock into as Bill ostensibly seems to maintain. And Bromstad has to take some responsibility for Parks & Community. Trauma, Mercy & Chuck can still be blamed (partially) on Ben Silverman.
NBCU is likely wanting to keep costs low (Leno will DEFINITELY stay), and increase its product appeal (better rated shows on NBC) for the potential ComCast buyout.
The following shows have a high degree of likelihood they will never be heard from after their current seasons end..
“Chuck”
Sorry, Chucksters, it’s a dead show walking. Even Alan Sepinwall (major critical supporter and hosted their ‘09 ComicCon panel) has publicly stated several times that he doubts a S4 will happen. How’s THAT for confidence in the showrunners? With JJ Abrams bringing his own comedy/action/romance spy show to NBC, don’t expect Bromstad to keep both programs unless Chuck sees a major increase in ratings (2.4 and a sandwich-buying frenzy just won’t get it a second time around). And while Burn Notice survives great during the summer, Chuck would fizzle and die.
“Mercy”
If some fundamentals change, it might be kept for potential slow build of a solid audience, but not likely.
“Trauma”
Already dead. Costs way too much to produce. Bad choice from Bromstad, who had to pick from a pile of bad choices from Silverman’s rubbish.
“Heroes”
This show has gotten as much of a bad stigma as it once had great viral popularity. Gaspin & Bromstad have stated repeatedly that ratings will take a much higher priority from now on.
Average ratings of a horribly low network average isn’t any form of insurance against cancellation. Not when NBCU is looking to maximize both profits & appeal for a ComCast deal. Zucker has already been targeted as a quick dump the moment ComCast picks up NBCU (if they actually do the deal). Gaspin & Bromstad will certainly be trying to show their value by separating themselves from Zucker’s “Manage for Margins”, which Gaspin has already stated publicly he does not support and does not intend to follow. Big clue when a guy takes a new position and promptly distances himself from his new boss’s much touted business model.
Gaspin & Bromstad are also fighting to distance themselves from Silverman’s taint. Do both of them expect to keep their positions at NBCU if it’s sold? Don’t know. But I sure as sugar know that they see a life for themselves in this business long after Zucker & Silverman are footnotes on NBC’s history of woes. The best way for them to do that is to manage for ratings, not margins.
Wow, will Heroes really comeback next year?
Who knows, NBC is doing so bad drama wise that they may actually renew the series. Though if they were smart theyd dump Heroes. Chuck may be a dead show walking but we have to wait to see how it performs when it premieres around January and Mercy can be kept as a potential series should it continue to perform OK.
Elizabeth Hasselbeck said on The View yesterday that these ratings probably don’t include the people who VCR/DVR record the shows and watch it later or the people who stream these shows online, and she is probably right. I usually end up watching last night’s Jay Leno show on my lunch break at the office.
Here ya go, Ben..
http://tvbythenumbers.com/demystifying-the-s
Probably best not to take ratings advice (or anything else) from Hasselbeck.
I’m no fan of Nikki Finke, but since it’s germane to what I’d posted earlier..
http://tinyurl.com/ylyugwf
If linking to the irritating woman’s blog is a no-no. Sorry. Won’t happen again.
Seriously I don’t know what show some of you are watching but IMO Heroes is horrible. I can’t believe the episode I watched monday night is the same series that gave us that great season 1 (except for the season 1 finale that is ).
SVU is the only drama that I can say with certainty that is returning for 2010-2011. Trauma and Southland have been axed. The following bubble dramas are
Law & Order
Heroes
Chuck
Mercy
The first two are veterans with a shorter order than usual. Both will end their seasons early and both are performing lower than average. Law & Order is airing on fridays but even with 20 episodes it may be time to finish the 20 year old veteran. Heroes has also declined rapidly and for NBC it may be time to let this one go. However NBC could choose to stick with either. The next two are series that do OK but may or may not be renewal worthy. Chuck hasnt premiered yet and Mercy is doing not too bad. Unlike all the other networks where I can easily name a list of shows that will come back for 2010-2011, NBC is very hard to determine.
I think with the positive buzz this last episode of Heroes has achieved it is possible that this show may start to grow an audience again. I have no lofty dreams of it growing back to it’s season 1 following, however; I think it adding a million or more viewers and hitting a 3.0 again is viable by the end of the season if they continue to hit the mark as well as they did on Monday. This type of show lives and dies based on the type of buzz it can generate, and for the first time in awhile it is positive. If that trend continues we could see some growth, which would be nice. The next few weeks will be interesting, will the show maintain the standard set this week or continue back down the spiral? Time will tell.
I dont think it will gain an audience. Even in December when House is in repeats and Dancing leaves. Heroes can only go lower and hopefully NBC will end it before it goes into 4 million viewers.
As I continue watching the 4th year of Heroes, I still fail to see the fascination with Claire. Sure, her character’s healing power is handy from time to time but to make her the star of the series? She is a snooze. I still think Matt Parkman is the most interesting character but he doesn’t get as much airtime as the others. Ive like Greg Gunberg since he was on Felicity and then onto Alias. Why can’t this guy catch a break and get a starring role?
Law and Order will/should be back for season 21. Its done well enough this year in the death slot. NBC owe this show to give it a final 21st season. They should put it on a decent night and time, and let it have a proper final season like ER did. Its only fair that way it can break the record too.
How come the picture for the NBC index is always that homely Chinese guy from “Heroes” straining? Is that Bill’s covert way of hinting that NBC’s schedule is a steaming load of crap?
Because if it isn’t, it should be.
Matthew – Well NBC can still give L&O a proper finale, they just gave it 4 more episodes so NBC could add 2 more to serve as a finale but they may not want to announce it until May.
For the record, the homely Chinese guy, is actually Japanese. Big difference, at least both of the aforementioned Asian cultures would say so. Besides being homely, he is a good little actor.
I agree Law and Order should have a well-planned final season ala ER, they deserved that after being on the air for two decades! I hope NBC renews this show even if for a shortened 21st season.
forg – Thats why I think NBC may give the series a final year, with an announced finale. if not NBC should announce a finale now but again Law & Order isnt like ER. ER is produced by warner bros and it was announced that the series would end before the season. Now NBC is in such bad shape that they dont know which bubble shows they should keep. Law & Order and Heroes are two bubble veterans that can go either way. Hopefully NBC gives L&O a final year.
I certainly like the toned down season, last season was kind of stupid. I appreciate the character focus.
I’m guessing 4 Season’s of Heroes is enough for syndication?
Heroes got alittle gun shy, after the terrible season 2.
So now there sticking with the original cast, but it’s boring and going nowhere.
Tim Kring is going to have to pitch a relaunch of the show after this season, if he wants it back for a 5th. New cast, smaller budget.
vsaint – 77 episodes seems good enough for syndication.
[b]not a parole officer[/b], Meloni and Hargitay’s contracts were for two years – so if SVU gets renewed, they’ll be back for season 12.
COME ON heroes is struggling since season 2 and getting worse and worse. there is no lesbian kiss which can save it from the graveyard.. its time for nbc to let this show go.. and keep good and cheper perfomer like chuck or mercy.
Chuck is not cheap but hopefully it performs better than last season when it returns.
“Heroes” has an interesting premise for a unique show, but the writers mucked it up. People that watch this kind of show expect a little action, but it moves slower than “Days of Our Lives.” …snore…I know you have to suspend your belief to watch a show like this, but so much of it just doesn’t make sense anymore at all. The writers aren’t in tune with the characters, and the plot elements aren’t cohesive. Pull the plug on this stinker!
DAN: actually chuck is really cheaper than Zeroes. after the cut of the budget this summer it costs 0,75 million at episode. Zeroes costs almost 2,1 million.. why they should keep this show? its like a cancer which is destroying the network from the insides for years.. bleah.. please NBC axe this stupid show!!!! eheh
Actually enjoy L&O, what I’ve seen of it this season. The overall tone feels less formulaic and a little more human. Good chemistry between Connie and the ADA’s name escapes me at the moment. Hope they keep it around for another season and at 9 instead of 8 o clock.
Anna – Heroes gets slightly higher numbers then Chuck especially in the demos but I agree with you that its time to let the once strong four year old drama go. Id rather see Chuck kept, I really hope it does better against its competition.
I have to say it. The TV executives look at more than just the 18-49 rating. I know you have to have a reasonably simple system for your predictions and they are good. However, you could have an extremely high rating and not many viewers at all. The show would still be canceled. Heroes is heading into that territory. The ratio of viewers is still OK, but the total number is getting disastrous. Ad sales will drop as the purchasers look at the number of people in a given category that they are reaching. Heroes just isn’t good enough any more to warrant being on the air and the number of people watching is an indicator of that. I would expect that they’ve been given the high sign to wrap it up. It’s time.
I LOVE heroes this season, its sooooo good, of course all the haters had to come out and bash the show, but no body cares about what they have to say. The show is getting better and better, obviously not season 1 good but is wayyyy better than season 2. I think that maybe season 5 should be the end though, how long can they keep this season going good? If they can keep it up I would say let the show go on for as long as it can. Seriously though the show is So good right now!!!