Prior to The Jay Leno Show taking over NBC’s 10pm hour on weekdays, the network wasn’t exactly burning up the ratings, and Jay’s not doing much worse so far.
NBC’s non-sports averages for 10-11pm weekdays for the 52 weeks prior to the debut of The Jay Leno Show were a Live+SD 2.2 adults 18-49 rating, a 2.7 adults 25-54 rating, and 6.9 million average viewers. Not a very high standard of performance.
Unfortunately, Nielsen no longer provides Live+SD season averages to us. Instead they provide “Most Current” averages, which are a combination of Live+SD data for recent episodes and Live+7 day for episodes more than 2 weeks old.
Given that the comparison is apples to oranges (but all I’ve got), here are The Jay Leno Show’s “Most Current” averages through November 1, 2009.
Monday, 2.2 adults 18-49 rating, 7.235 million avg. viewers,
Tuesday, 2.3 rating, 7.058m
Wednesday, 2.0 rating, 7.053m
Thursday, 1.9 rating, 5.689m
Friday, 1.5 rating, 5.935m
Overall through 11/1/09: 1.98 adults 18-49 rating, 6.594m avg. viewers
Update: Julia calculated the Live+SD overall averages: 1.92 A18-49, 6.387m viewers
Note that Jay’s show is very lightly DVR viewed (three of five episodes in the latest week we have data for had zero ratings increase between Live+SD and Live+7) which makes the Live+SD to Most Current comparisons more valid than for most broadcast primetime shows.
Those numbers are skewed up by the big premiere week, but they’ve also come during the most competitive time of the year, and they have been trending downwards, so the averages don’t tell the entire tale.
Lot’s of questions remain. What will Leno’s ratings be during periods of sustained repeats by the competition during the regular season? What will they be during the summer?
Wow, Leno really is DVR-proof. Here are the Live+SD averages through last week, using the finals provided by Travis Yanan (didn’t include this week since it hasn’t finished yet.)
1.92 A18-49, 6.387m viewers
Being DVR-proof is a promise NBC can deliver on. Unfortunately for them, it’s also almost viewer proof too…
Julia, thanks, I added those numbers to the post.
Cancelled veterans ER, Medium as well as SVU did the best but NBC just couldnt afford to air new shows at the hour when it was cheaper to put on Leno.
I wonder if Leno would actually have better numbers than the five scripted shows that ran at 10pm last season and were canceled: Southland, Lipstick Jungle, Life, Medium, and The Listener.
Lenos numbers would have been slightly worse on average then your mentioned shows. (Possibly better than Life, Listener and Lipstick Jungle) The problem is no matter how the shows do, NBC cant afford to keep all of them and its not just about 10pm.
I think I finally figured out what I don’t like about Leno: He’s doing absolutely horrible everywhere in ‘new’ media. It’s not just DVRing where he is non-existent, it’s everywhere.
Hulu: As of right now, Leno is number #45 in views over the past week, ranking behind all three* ABC dramas available on Hulu. Remember: That’s five episodes of Jay, including a bunch of clips that can get passed around as easily as SNL clips do.
iTunes/Amazon: Not even listed on either of them, let alone having eps available
DVR: As evidenced above, 3% growth INCLUDING premiere week
DVD sales: Like most other talk shows, likely going to be non-existent to barely a blip.
Basically, anywhere but on the TV Jay Leno will not work. As more and more people turn to on demand programming rather than traditional scheduled, Jay will suffer and NBC will lose ground to other networks.
*the forgotten isn’t on Hulu anymore for whatever reason.
Wish I could edit, but above I meant all three ABC dramas that air at 10pm.
Your article fails to mention one important thing: local affiliates nightly newscasts. Fact: Jay Leno’s low ratings have negatively affected the local news that follows it nationwide. Even though prior shows in the 10 p.m. timeslot may have done slightly better than Leno, the news held strong. Not so with Leno, if people turn the channel when Leno’s on, they’re obviously not coming back an hour later to watch the news.
Rob, NBC would only care about its own O&O news slump. That’s just the way it is. NBC’s other affiliates can complain all they want, but there’s nothing they can do that won’t end up hurting themselves in the process.
J.R., yes but many affiliates are threatening to move Leno to another timeslot other than 10. I can’t imagine Leno doing much better at 8 or 9 or 2 a.m. When local affiliates start moving network shows, that’s a sign of the end.
Still comparing night to night, Leno is doing worse than NBC was last year, of course 10pm was nearly all scripted content, so the accountants should be happy.
The Jay Leno Show sucks!! Put it of its misery. There’s nowhere to go but down. The ratings are never going to get any better than they are now, re-runs or no re-runs.
I love that there are many ratings geeks who care about this stuff as much as I do.
Rob, there have been articles showing affiliates who don’t like Leno and those who say it hasn’t had a negative effect. I’ve seen none where anyone actually comes out and threatens to move Leno. I would love to see that one.
Julia, NBC’s Boston affiliate announced they would air their local news at 10, months before Leno’s premier. NBC immediately threatened to revoke the stations franchise.
Mike, that was months ago, before any affiliates had seen results. And they’ve been remarkably quiet since. I’m talking about now, after everyone has seen the results. There is definitely grumbling, and the anti-Leno press likes to make more of it than it really seems to be, but so far there have been no affiliates threatening to jump ship that I’ve seen.
Being almost 100% “DVR Proof” should be something that should interest sponsors.
Since many “scripted” shows are watched via the DVR…these shows could have a very high “content” rating but most of the viewers are probably skipping through all the commercial messages.
I -for one – do this all the time…and i’m not alone.
Bottom line…
The sponsor doesn’t give a F…. how many viewers the show has…they are only interested in how many suckers are watching their commercials.
So a show like Leno’s that is almost totally DVR proff probably has many many many more viewers watching the commercials.
They don’t have much choice.
If I were sponsoring a program…I would want a program that has the highest percentage of viewers ACTUALLY WATCHING MY COMMERCIAL.
That’s why…in addition the the low low cost…that the future of network television is talk,news, and reality shows.
Scripted shows are this centuries new “buggy whips”.
Leno is likely to stay where it is for a while. It seems NBC is satisfied with airing Leno at 10 but it cost them ratings by airing most of their usual 10pm dramas at 9.
Actually, Dan, most of NBC’s 10pm dramas were canceled, not moved to 9pm. Of the two that weren’t canceled, L&O was much more hurt by being moved to Friday than anything else, and it was just barely getting by at 10 last season, anyway. There’s only one show that can really be said to have been hurt by Leno, and that’s SVU.
Question for Bill:
Since your the “numbers” man…please explain to me the reasons for sponsors being so interested in SD or SD+7 adult 18-49 figures.
I don’t understand the value (to a sponsor) of a Live +SD or a
Live +SD +7 adult 18-49 rating.
To me SD or SD +7 viewing means that the viewer most likely skipped through all the commercials.
Since the sponsor is ONLY interested in the number of viewers for his commercial…not the actual program…to me the only figure of any valie is the number of “live” viewers.
So it would appear to me that a program that has a much larger percentage of live viewers would be much more valuable to a sponsor than a program that has a much has a larger number of total viewers..after the SD or SD +7 numbers are factored into the final total.
For a sponsor…the more “DVR proof” a program is…the more chance that the viewer actually watched one of your commercials.
That shoud be worth something !
Another important factor – conan is bombing at 11:30
Alot depends on how much profit NBC is making on Leno at 10pm vs. 11:30pm. Leno is likely very cheap to make vs. shows with paid actors and higher costs. If they are still making more at 10pm, they will leave Leno there. Unless they need the time slots for something else. Considering NBC has little worth watching, that wont happen soon. Conan’s profitability would also be a factor.
Agree with Julia SVU hurt by Leno…DUMP LENO…DUMP LENO
I personally do not care that NBC axed all those worthless (for the most part) 10pm dramas. They were not good. Even vets like ER were dragging, waiting to be killed off finally.
SVU should not be hurt by its time slot change. If people actually cared enough to watch the show, they’d follow the show. The show has been on a long time now and I would expect it to start to decline.
I mean jesus… you program say Veronica’s Closet after Seinfeld, but then when you move it to another night, no one watches it. Why? Because people just tuned in because they were already watching Seinfeld, not because they thought Veronica’s Closet was such a hoot.
If NBC decides to dump The Jay Leno Show, they in turn need to dump Conan and move Leno back to the Tonight Show.
I agree with you Brandon, It is puzzling that SVU has taken such a dive in the ratings and you would think that its long time fans would have followed the show to its new time slot(I did). Maybe going up against Criminal Minds is just to much(I actually watch both shows).
As for Leno, that show just needs to be cancelled and fast, it has been a ratings disaster for NBC, I just dont see how anyone can spin those dreadful numbers. I tried watching it a couple of times, it was just terrible.
NBC should only put Leno on Monday, Thursday, and Friday nights. Not all weekday nights all across the board.
The biggest hit to NBC, IMO, is its credibility. To leave an opening for local affiliates to seriously consider a 10 p.m. news slot is part of the mass fallout of this move.
Programming should be cyclical, but NBC has condemned its affiliates to perpetual poor lead in audience with no hopes of reprieve.
Throwing in the towel on potential for five wonderful programs shows a lack of imagination and tempts affiliates to look for a new model of their own.
NBC’s 10 p.m. should be renamed: “The Vast Wasteland of the Vast Wasteland.”
Dave Ryan, was Letterman bombing when he was behind Leno by a very wide margin?
NBC is so bad they can’t even get decent shows at 9 PM to give Jay some lead in strength. Jay does best on Tuesday when the lead in numbers are highest.
Charlie, the second best 9:30 lead-in Leno has is on Thursday, when Leno is doing second worst. I’m not sure that lead-in has anything to do with it.
The Jay Leno Show = NBC’s downfall. NBC gambled and loss. They should know when to fold. Right now, it’s a matter of public perception. They are unwilling to publicly admit they invested too much in Leno, but in time, NBC will either cancel or move Leno. My guess is they let him ride for the whole season with occasional hiatuses for mini-series and specials. However, Leno won’t be back next season.
Rob, FOX made a profit of only $39 million last quarter and they’re #1 in the demo. NBC is not going to change anything.
The problem with Leno is that his show is hurting the rest of NBC programming. SVU is getting killed, and Law & Order, which is probably having the best cast and the best quality season in a long time, was banished to 8PM Friday and is surviving despite NBC’s seeming attempts to kill it. SVU and L&O would likely been doing far far better at their usual 10 PM hour.
The local affiliates are also being hurt by Leno and since many of them are not owned by NBC (my city’s NBC affiliate is owned by Gannet) I wonder if the non-NBC owned affiliates will begin to push back very soon if they aren’t already.
And I know the ad people live and die by 18-49 demo, but there are paople over 49 who like decent programming and would be happy to patronize advertisers who placed ads in programs that 49+ people watch. I’m over 49 and watch the same types of programs that those younger than me watch, and I bet I have a lot more disposable inccme than they do. One of these days the networks will realize this and they will measure ratings by ALL viewers.
But face it, Leno’s show is virtually unwatchable for people of any age.
If the affiliates keep on complaining about Leno, NBC should tell them to shut up or they’ll give them something to complain about. Like repeats of “Kings” and “Lipstick Jungle” leading in to their local news.
Riff Rafferty, I’d rather watch “Kings” or “Southland” at 10 p.m. than Jay Leno.
And I’d prefer to watch Leno at 10:00pm.
I win.
Riff: Well, you and very few others. NBC can’t even deliver the 5 million minimum viewers nightly it promised to advertisers.
Rob, I’ve already taken my lumps over my memory/bad reading on the “guaranteed to advertisers” issue, but, again, the fact that a show doesn’t meet what was promised/priced to advertisers doesn’t mean it gets yanked off the air. CSI, to cite another example, is almost certainly doing worse than was planned for advertisers. It’s in no danger of being yanked off the air suddenly either.