Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 8, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F), (P) | 0.54 |
| Three Rivers (P) | 0.55 |
| Cold Case (P) | 0.59 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.61 |
| Medium (F), (P) | 0.62 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.63 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.66 |
| The Good Wife (P) | 0.86 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (P) | 0.92 |
| CSI:NY (P) | 0.96 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.06 |
| The Mentalist | 1.08 |
| CSI (P) | 1.09 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles (P) | 1.13 |
| Criminal Minds (P) | 1.13 |
| CSI: Miami (P) | 1.20 |
| NCIS (P) | 1.37 |
| Two And A Half Men | 1.39 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.50 |
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In a big vote of no confidence, the episode order this season for Numb3rs was reduced to 16 episodes. It’s now in significant danger of not coming back. But last week the other CBS Friday dramas (Ghost Whisperer, Medium) only managed to edge Numb3rs adults 18-49 rating by a tenth (1.9 vs. 1.8). I think it’s very unlikely that CBS would wipe out its entire Friday lineup, but if Numb3rs is in danger, can the other 2 rest easy?
Neither Three Rivers nor Cold Case will be back next season. They will both be canceled by the end of the year, but while Cold Case will likely air a full 22 episode season, the most Three Rivers will get will be the 13 episodes already ordered.
The Good Wife ratings continue to drift downwards. Last week’s 2.7 rating is only 84% of the CBS average. If that continues, the show’s first season may be its last.
New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried ratings remain horrid, but what’s new? If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be fine for yet another season.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
So you have the finals for Sunday? Could you please post them?
i wonder if they would move three rivers or cold case instead of canceling them and put them in numbers place or even GW as its not propreitary
too bad i like numbers
If “Numb3rs” does go, I’d like to see CBS give “Flashpoint’ another shot. The Friday numbers were fairly decent for “Flashpoint” the past two seasons.
@chet, Cold Case and Three Rivers are already doing worse than any of the Friday shows. Why would CBS want to sacrifice steady performers for their two lowest rated shows?
AT LAST! Bill G has run out of “dying/dead patient” metaphors to use for Three Rivers.
I think The Good Wife could go to fridays before this season ends.
Now that they have Medium in there, I can see them finding another female lead show — I know it’s the Friday ghetto, but The Good Wife might do okay in that slot if it continues to drift downward and CBS wants the Tuesday slot for something that skews more male.
The Good Wife at 9pm could be a good thing. With medium at 10 pm.
Maybe Miami Trauma (?) could get the TGW spot.
Oh, but there’s that old standby…
“Three Rivers ratings drying up”
Big Bang Theory’s standing in the ratings is HUGE. 1.50. Wow.
Michael, I saw that TR’s numbers were 7.99 mil and a 1.8 demo but those are the only ones I have. This is slightly higher than last week but surely can’t be enough to keep it going. Not sure if this is inflated due to the overrun but would be my guess.
thank you Nelson for a great 6 season of Numbers
CBS isn’t going to move The Good Wife. It is doing decently for that Tuesday slot, winning it. It is also gaining critical praise. And I bet it is cheaper than Without a Trace which was doing okay there too. That spot on Tuesdays has been a problem for them since they cancelled Judging Amy.
I like Numbers but would like to see Flashpoint come back. White Collar on USA is doing very well and probably is eating into the old Numbers fan base.
CBS is insane if they think they have something better to fill Friday nights with than the combo of Ghost Whisperer and Medium.
Take the usual hourly wins you get from both of them and dont get greedy.
I hope The Good Wife bounces back to the 3.0 zone
Ghost Whisperer and Medium arent in any danger. Three Rivers should get the axe any day now and Cold Case and Numb3rs will be gone by May. I still think The Good Wife moving to 10pm fridays will be a good test for the show. Sure its doing well at 10pm on Tuesdays but its following NCIS: LA and theres no competition. If CBS wants to see how Good Wife can perform on its own, they will move it to replace Numb3rs and air a new drama (Miami Trauma) Tuesdays at 10. If Good Wife holds up when it airs with Ghost Whisperer and Medium, then it will be good enough for that slot for 2010-2011. Instead of airing Flashpoint on fridays, CBS could air it 10pm sundays and move Cold Case to 9. Accidentally on Purpose may be in the green now, but I bet it will finish early, be replaced by ROE and then join the ranks of The Class and Worst Week.
Few people seem to be lamenting the presumed demise of Numb3rs, but I’d hate to see it go. Yes, the show needs new energy — a substantial female agent to fill the void left by Diane Farr, an actual onscreen romantic interest for Don (versus the mentioned-but-never-seen Robin), and more chemistry and less math between Charlie and Amita. As it stands, Numb3rs doesn’t fit into the Friday night equation (ha ha), but I hope CBS will find it worthy of at least one more season.
Enjoying the TNT syndication, too!
Numb3rs is well into syndication and has done well in its same friday 10pm slot for 6 years. It will go down as a series that helped CBS with the friday night death slot along with Ghost Whisperer. Beginning last May, CBS axes two veteran dramas to make room. Last May it was The Unit and Without a Trace and next May it will be Cold Case and Numb3rs. Which besides the CSIs and NCIS are the oldest dramas. Each May before that CBS has gotten away with not axing veteran dramas. May 2008 CBS axed two year dramas Shark and Jericho and May 2007 CBS axed two year Close to Home. May 2006 was the only season that CBS didnt axe any veteran series.
@Sam -
“Yes, the show needs new energy…an actual onscreen romantic interest for Don…”
Why? Why does the show need a love interest for Don, which would just bog it down with more relationship-oriented filler?
Sam – Since its CBS, if a shows order is cut its dead. Cold Case and Numb3rs are definitely gone by May. If it were another network, the shows might have a better chance but every year CBS needs to dump a couple of veterans to just make room for new dramas. For CBS, they have so many well performing shows that they have to make sacrifices like last seasons Without a Trace. Its better that CBS axes Cold Case and Numb3rs so they have room, so to the two series R.I.P.
I just realized how much I don’t watch CBS. I’ve seen a less than an hour of all those shows combined.
I just like the comedies. CBS knows how to develop good multi camera sitcoms in an era where other networks like NBC and ABC specialize in single camera. All the dramas seem the same. The Mentalist is good and The Good Wife is original.
@Lester, re my Numb3rs comment:
“Why? Why does the show need a love interest for Don, which would just bog it down with more relationship-oriented filler?”
Hi Lester. First of all, if they did it right, it wouldn’t bog the show down, and it wouldn’t be filler. One of the great things about Numb3rs is that in addition to the solve-crime-with-math storyline of the week, the characters — Don, Charlie and their Dad, primarily — DO actually relate to one another. They talk. They have personalities, weaknesses, resentments… none of which I find to be “filler.” It’s not just a procedural show, and that’s something that I’ve enjoyed about it.
Second, they’ve hinted at Don’s character evolving many times in different ways — in terms of a relationship, or in his spirituality, but they’ve never tackled these things in a substantial way. Why dance around the subject if you’re never going to take it on? It’s an ensemble show, of course, but Don is certainly the lead character. And while he’s gone through a lot on the job, his character hasn’t developed or changed much in six years. Just seems to me that with an actor as talented as Rob Morrow, who can certainly “go there,” it’s a waste not to let his character stretch out.
Just my opinion, no better or worse than anyone else’s…
And Dan, re: Numb3rs getting the axe, I agree that it sure looks that way. Without a Trace, one of last season’s “sacrifices,” certainly still had more worthy stories to tell.
Sam – Thats the only bad thing about airing on CBS. Unless youre a CSI or NCIS series once you start to show your age even by a little, your gone, Without a Trace. Speaking of the series, it was still well rated and did well for Tuesdays at 10, it was just getting old and expensive. Cold Case seemed to have 1 more season left when it was renewed last Mya but now its apparent the show is dead. Will CBS announce it? 90% chance that they wont but you never know. Of the two, Numb3rs is more likely (than Cold Case) to continue but even that series is getting expensive and the 8 episode cut is a bad sign. The best thing the producers of both series can do is write good finales. Cold Case is easily in its final year so the writers can prepare a good ending, and the Numb3rs producers are currently preparing a final episode that can serve as an ending but wont finalize everything in case the series is picked up.
R.I.P
Cold Case (2003-2010)
Numb3rs (2005-2010)
The Good Wife will go lower and lower. It’s not popular with younger people (the TV ad demo networks like), and it’s ratings are slipping.
My best friend will go crazy if you show him those Numbers ratings, he likes that show.
R.G. – The Good Wife dropping will lead CBS to moving it to fridays. They moved Close to Home to fridays after it was going to get cancelled and it lasted another year and a half in that slot. I think Good Wife could be compatible fridays at 10. Even if Flashpoint takes the 10pm friday slot, if Good Wife gets another season my guess is that it lands 10pm fridays. I still believe Ghost WHisperer and Medium are safe. They may or may not be the cancelled veteran duo of May 2011 but Numb3rs and Cold Case have already taken the crown as the cancelled veteran duo of May 2010.
Before CBS goes swinging the axe on all their in-house productions because they’re too cheap to pay the cast salaries anymore, they might want to think about making sure they’re seeing eye to eye with the studios behind their non-in-house shows first. Shows which get the same exact ratings as the in-house shows they’re gearing up to cancel. Like, for instance, “Ghost Whisperer” — the stupid show watched by stupid menopausal women who are certifiably-insane and who don’t know the meanings of simple words like “several” and who have temper tantrums when you point out that the only reason guys would watch a stupid show like “Ghost Whisperer” is to stare at Jennifer Love Hewitt’s real and spectacular breasts. Because that show sure got holed up in negotiations with ABC this spring.
cancelling Ghost Whisperer and Medium and Numbers to be honest is suicice! These shows have been practically the ratings highlight of everyfriday.
I don’t think The Good Wife will get a 2nd season. Look at Eleventh Hour it was doing good but it was canceled. A 2.7 for CBS wouldn’t save a Tuesday Show/
I think the silence from CBS about Three Rivers says it all. No new episodes have been ordered which can only mean that they aren’t getting their back nine and it is most likely gone after all 13 episodes air.
I look at the numbers for the good wife and I am confident it will be renewed for a second season. The show has been in the Top 20 every week so far this season and does a good job of retaining much of the NCIS LA audience. It doesnt surprise me though that this site has it in orange with some danger of being cancelled. this site is always so fixated on the Golden 18-49 crowd that it clouds its judgment.
This site said last season that cold case would be cancelled, I said cold case would be renewed and cold case is still on. The site is right this time though, this will be cold cases last season.
I’m not saying that the 18-49 crowd isnt important. I just wish this site wasnt so obssessed with it. There are other factors, the main one being the total viewing audience which I feel is more important, but thats just me and I know that I am in the minority in these chats.
this site is always so fixated on the Golden 18-49 crowd that it clouds its judgment
Unfortunately, the advertising industry is fixated on that demo, so it has the most impact on advertising dollars, and therefore profits. TVBTN didn’t create that situation, they just report based on that fact.
Tom, you’re not in the minority in these chats. You’re just plain wrong. And, unfortunately, being wrong probably places you in the majority.
But this isn’t something that is important to you or to TVBTN. The fact of the matter is (and facts are either right or wrong, not just your opinion on whether they are or not) that total viewers do not matter for broadcast network primetime.
Sorry to nitpick but haven’t The Big Bang Theory and Two And A Half Man already been renewed for the 2010-11 season? Shouldn’t they be in a different text color?
Jeff, I got into doing that last season and may further on in this season, but at this point it adds unnecessary complexity.
Sorry fans of Good Wife, I personal don’t care for the series I tryed A number of time’s too watch it it’s boring right alone with 3 Rivers very boring sorry fans. I”m still A fan of Ghost Whisperer but this season it’s really boring too.( Medium ) its okay this season. I think this season of ( NUMB3RS ) is awesome & CBS should let they finish the whole season with 22 episodes instead of them cutting them down too 16 episodes. Shame on you CBS fooling around with your Friday night line up may cost you allot of heart break & viewers.
Hm, saw a Three Rivers ad during NCIS:LA this week but (unlike previous weeks) didn’t notice a Three Rivers ad during CSI or Mentalist. But I was distracted during the commercial breaks, so maybe I missed it. Otherwise, it could be a sign of impending cancelation. I’ll look out for an ad during Medium and Numb3rs tonight…
I really really hope CBS doesn’t cancel Numb3rs! It’s one of CBS’ best shows in my opinion. The network would have to be crazy to cancel it!
If they’re going to cancel a show why not HIMYM. That show is irritating! I like to watch shows online and none of those episodes are available. On the other hand, with Numb3rs, I’ve watched many episodes multiple times. The dynamics between the characters are just so rich – but I kind of miss the math explanations.
As for another cancellation prospect, how about one of the CSI franchise? All good shows, but CSI:Miami has run like 9 seasons – and, this is the killer, CBS just did a crossover miniseries with all three CSI shows for the week linked. That’s a sign of the Grim Reaper approaching if I’ve ever seen one! Good shows those CSIs, but they should be axed or shuffled or something.
CSI’s axed? Never.happen. (at least for a couple of years). They are still some of the best money-makers for cbs. The same is true for HIMYM (even if it’s not theirs).
Looks like CBS will air out Three Rivers. From: http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/389062-The_Networks_Take_Out_the_Trash.php
“Kelly Kahl, executive VP of program planning and scheduling for CBS, points to the stability of the network’s schedule in allowing a little more time for new shows to find their audience. CBS ordered five additional episodes of Accidentally on Purpose and the network has no plans to yank Three Rivers, according to Kahl.”
They will let it finish its 13 episodes run. Afterall, they didn’t stop shooting it, they should be shooting episodes 10 right now. If they wanted to yank it before its due date, they wouldn’t have already told the production to stop?
If TR hasn’t found it’s audience after six eps, not sure how that is going to change any. I would think if it’s not pulled after this week, then they will let it air out the 13 eps.
What are your thoughts?
is the Goodwife back to Green again this week?
as a numbers fan i will be sad but you know what it happens all the time and as fan of tv i will watch it intill its time to go
About 3R: I think either they will let it conclude its 13 episodes or they will yank it after the november sweeps. But I’m more inclined to believe that they will air all the 13 episodes at this point, unless the ratings will go down.
The only show I watch on this list is The Mentalist. That seems weird to only watch one show on a list that long from a major network. I guess if one isn’t a CSI-type show fan or a comedy watcher, CBS just doesn’t offer anything for you. Maybe they need to diversify.
Maybe its time to revise the indexes. The Good wife is still doing good so I dont think it should be cancelled.
Lara, The Good Wife’s on the borderline. It seems to have stabilized, but is definitely not assured of renewal.
These are its new episode ratings this fall 3.1, 3.2, 2.9, 2.8, 2.8, 2.7, 2.8.
On NBC, a show with a 2.8 rating is a lock for renewal. Not on CBS.
Thank you Bill for the explanation, I just hope it stays for another season.