Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 8, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Ugly Betty (S), (F), (P) | 0.41 |
| Hank | 0.54 |
| Eastwick | 0.65 |
| the forgotten | 0.69 |
| The Middle | 0.72 |
| Castle (P) | 0.78 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) | 1.04 |
| FlashForward (P) | 1.06 |
| Cougar Town (P) | 1.13 |
| Modern Family | 1.22 |
| Private Practice (P) | 1.26 |
| Desperate Housewives (P) | 1.57 |
| V | 1.73 |
| Grey’s Anatomy (P) | 1.85 |
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the forgotten, received an order for 5 more episodes from ABC. Fans can be happy they’ll see a bit more of the show, but shouldn’t get their hopes up for more, it’s not coming back next season. It beat out Eastwick to escape being the first ABC show canceled, but that’s small consolation.
The “quiet success” that was Eastwick, was, as was easily predicted, quietly canceled. Hank’s still as certain to be canceled as ever.
11/10 Update: Hank is officially canceled.
Fans of both Castle and The Middle can rest easy for now (although I don’t expect them to), their shows will air all the way through the 22 episodes ordered this season. However, their returns for 2010-2011 are very much in doubt. The relative success of new ABC shows this spring may determine their fates.
Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It’s ratings are dreadful. There is some entertainment press chatter that Ugly Betty may move to Wednesday’s at 10 in January to try and “save” the show. It may very well move, but short of ABC wanting to produce more episodes for syndication (a longshot) there is no “saving” it.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
wow with “V”
Wow is right, but let’s see what the numbers look like tomorrow and hope it’s not a “wow” of a different type.
Was wondering if y’all were going to make a post about the Betty “news” on E! I just don’t see ABC dedicating a lot of resources to a “flashy relaunch” of a 4th-year serialized program that is down 50%+ year to year.
spotupj, I gave “the news” a mention in the post above. It’s PR spun fluff, the show is dead unless ABC wants to keep the carcass around to generate more episodes for syndication (like According to Jim), but I don’t think that’s likely.
Im shocked that Hank is doing better then Ugly Betty! completely SHOCKED.
I would be curious to see how Ugly Betty would perform on Sundays at 8 pm, following Extreme Makover Home Edition at 7 pm and preceding Desperate Housewives. Wed at 10 pm needs to be preserved for “Lost” at mid-season.
America’s Funniest Home Videos seems to be a natural fit on Fridays at 8 or 9 pm, paired with SuperNanny or Wife Swap. I think there may be life left in Ugly Betty and it has a similar comedy/dramedy feel to Desperate Housewives. I wouldnt give up on it yet.
Bill does the continued downward trend for Flashforward affect Castle at all?
Cullen, I’d say it does both directly and indirectly. Indirectly it drops the overall ABC average, so it relatively “helps” its ABC competition. Directly, ABC will likely have a few shows that it decides on at the last moment. Castle is certain to be one of them. FlashForward is looking more likely to be one of them as well. Then we can have another “Chuck vs. the rest of the network” situation
Why is Flashforward in green? Aren’t their ratings falling and now worse than Castle? They haven’t stablized yet.
I’ve been calling UB for Wednesdays at 10pm since the first week’s ratings come in. It seems like it would be a good fit out of the comedies, since it is mostly a comedy itself. I don’t know if it will “save” the show, but ABC can probably use it better than it currently does. Current ratings are dreadful (there’s little spinning it), but I don’t necessarily believe that it’s entirely the fault of the series – a loss of 50% from last fall shows that something went wrong with the move.
ABC can get better results on Fridays from Wife Swap.
Lost can go virtually anywhere – I’d say Tuesday at 10pm where there is little competition. I also like the idea floated here about Thursday at 8pm – the slot is wide-open, and ABC has nothing to lose with Lost at this point. I still can’t grasp that this is the final season…
As for E! calling Wednesdays at 10pm “cushy,” I’m not so sure about that, E. The only show to do well in the time slot for ABC this decade is Lost, although Wife Swap did decent numbers in the fall of 2004.
Just to add – ABC is finally looking exciting for mid-season. Although their ratings aren’t great anymore, they have a lot of mid-performing, high quality shows that could be shuffled around. If V manages to keep its audience, or even 2/3 of it (and I don’t think that ABC expected it to do so well), it’s a game-changer. ABC would have hit series on every night of the week but Fridays and Saturdays.
If ABC is seriously thinking about moving Ugly Betty, then they must have no hope in their midseasons (Happy Town, the latter half of Scrubs2, etc.)
Something tells me this year will be much like last year for them – a number of 6 or 8 episode shows cycling out of the 10pm slots.
At this point, FF is likely to be gone, so is V, Middle will only be back if it gets the post-DWTS slot in Spring, Ted is done, Romantically Challenged is Ratingsly Challenged (unless placed after DWTS) and Scrubs is probably gone as well.
Honestly, I don’t know which will be in worse shape come year’s end: NBC or ABC.
Those accountants must have figured the ad revenues are greater than the ABC payments to WB. This like keeping a dying patient on life support just a little longer…
Carol, Flashforward ratings are falling, but its *worst* individual show rating is still above Castle’s *best*.
If Flashforward continues to fall this week, it’s going to be orange next week.
In your free time over there at TV By the Numbers, why don’t you make us some links so he can click on the shows and see their year to date numbers!
Regarding “Flashforward ratings are falling, but its *worst* individual show rating is still above Castle’s *best*.”
I hate to ask for more as the index is a lot easier to view at a glance than it was a year ago. But, have you considered including a column of the rating for the most recent episode along with the current cumulative rating for the season?
Ken A, since I have the individual episode ratings, I may do something with them in the future, particularly towards the end of the season.
I shall miss Eastwick. It’s such an excellent series. The Middle and Castle…I have hope and faith for ABC to defy this index once again, despite having no actual grounds to do so!
I think the only hope for Betty Suarez is a crossover, Ugly Bett-V.
Forgotten’s additional episodes dont mean anything. The series will just be dead after the 18 finishes anyway. Castle and Flashforward could goeither way in terms of 2010-2011. Eastwick has just been axed and Hank will be too soon. Im interested to see how ABC’s midseason will look.
Since I’m the only fan of Forgotten around here let me say that I’m happy I’ll get to see an extra 5 episodes.
Abc’s mid season is on wikipeida. Is there info right because it says lost is on thursdays and flashfoward on wensday and the middle is on monday??
Wow at V
I don’t think FLashForward will get a 2nd season it will go downhill like Life on Mars.
Ugly Betty will do good at Wednesday
Ordering 5 more episodes of the forgotten is a mistake! What do you they expect a 2.1 in its 15th episode to 18th episode.
I’m not so sure FlashForward will get renewed for 2010-11. Unless it stops the bleeding starting this week it’s finished.
I have noticed that ABC has a problem with keeping an audience. Their shows premiere pretty well, and can’t seem to hold the momentum. FlashForward is a good example of that, It’s premiere did really well, and now it’s looking likely to be at best a bubble show by May. Eastwick had a decent premiere (All be it not great) and faded fast as well.
Any guesses when Hank will “quietly” get canceled?
Michael J, right now
http://www.thrfeed.com/2009/11/abc-axes-hank.html
I think Betty, if its moved to Wednesday would do well..Wednesday on ABC are pretty good right now with Modern Family and Cougar Town..its a good line up and i see Betty fitting in really well.
I hope the ratings get better because it’s honestly been a great season of Betty. If ABC would have moved it ANYWHERE ELSE but fridays, the show, in my opinion, would be doing so much better but it definitely has the potential
The forgotten is a good show too bad!
Castle is one of the best shows on TV right now. I hope it’s renewed. I despise Ugly Betty and Grey’s Anatomy though. I wouldn’t mind if both of them disappeared yesterday.
I sort of like the Forgotten I just wanted a different lead actor.