While it’s certainly a possibility that both shows will be renewed, the question at hand is which show is more likely to be renewed? I could be cowardly and push and say that they are equally likely. But if I have to pick one, it’s “Heroes,” and not exclusively just because the relative rankings (and color coding) in the Renew/Cancel Index.
Crazy tinfoil hat wearing “Fringe” fanboys who want to call me a hater please note, I am still watching “Fringe!” I am not still watching “Heroes!” But the question isn’t “which show am I more likely to watch?”
Heroes
Even though “Heroes” is at our near series lows with Adults 18-49 it is still one of NBC’s better performing shows and its second best scripted drama, trailing only “Law & Order: SVU.”
At the current level, I can’t see “Heroes” not being renewed. The ratings of course could continue to drop to the point where it’s a different story. But given the ratings carnage NBC has suffered, even if “Heroes” falls to the levels where “Fringe” currently is, I think it’s still a keeper. It could be retooled and re-launched perhaps, but a keeper nonetheless. It has strong international sales (though those will likely be weaker when attempting to sell an additional season) and still, relative to most shows very strong DVD sales. Those DVD sales are way, way down from season one, but still in the upper echelon of TV show DVDs. Of any show on NBC, only “The Office” surpasses Heroes DVD sales in the USA.
Especially with the ratings carnage NBC has suffered, I can’t see NBC not at least trying to get one more season from the show. Again, that’s based on the current ratings. In March, if “Heroes” is pulling a 1.5 adults 18-49 rating, that’s a different story.
Fringe
Though perhaps still worrisome, “Fringe” rebounded from its low numbers following the baseball hiatus last week, assuming no significant changes in the final numbers. I guess all those DVR viewers who normally watch it the same night who didn’t get it in their program guides so it didn’t record, and all the people who just assumed it wasn’t on came back.
Overall, FOX wanted to improve its Thursday night fates by scheduling “Bones” and “Fringe”, and so far it has worked. “Bones” does measurably better at 8pm, but 9pm is the tougher time slot. Though it’s perhaps true that “Fringe” might do better at 8pm up against “Flash Forward” , not throwing “Bones” against “Grey’s Anatomy” makes sense. “Bones” skews more towards women and “Fringe” more towards men. If you have a show targeted at women, throwing it against “Grey’s Anatomy” makes no sense. That’s the same reason why CW’s “The Vampire Diaries” airs at 8pm instead of 9pm.
If “Fringe” stays about where it is, I could certainly see FOX digging in and sticking with it next year. FOX can’t successfully launch a new show at 9pm, and though it has talked about moving “House” or “American Idol” to Thursdays in the past, I think mostly that was to get a rise out of its competitors.
FOX could of course change “Fringe’s” ratings by moving it to a better timeslot. FOX might think it could squeeze more out of “Fringe” somewhere else. But FOX doesn’t have very many slots to work with. Some argue that it should slot “Fringe” after “House” again and move “Lie To Me” to 9pm. Maybe, but I think at best all that would produce is a very similar outcome where “Fringe” would do around as well as “Lie To Me” on Mondays, and “Lie To Me” would do about as well as “Fringe” on Thursdays. Especially since t”Lie To Me” is produced by Fox and “Fringe” isn’t, I can’t see that move happening.
The possibilities are always endless, and we haven’t even seen the mid-season schedule yet. I’m sure people will keep a close eye on the forthcoming “Human Target” and its ratings and there will be lots of discussion of pitting “Human Target” vs. “Fringe.”
Of course, as discussed in the comments below, it is also possible neither show gets renewed.
definitely heroes, even though I don’t like that show…
It gets better ratings than Fringe and it’s on a worse network.
Heroes will only get renewed for syndie/money reasons but Fringe needs one more chance to prove itself and that’s by getting out of that timeslot.
I vote for Fringe.. But I hope they won’t move it at 8 pm and move Bones at 9 pm..
Both
No brainer
“Fringe” would get a shot at 9pm Friday before it would get canceled.
As sad as it sounds, Heroes.
One of the best ratings on the network, possible extra syndication money, money from DVD sales, etc.
The only advantage Fringe has in comparison is that it does not actively induce mockery.
As someone who watches neither, I would put my money on them both being canceled, but if one has to be renewed, Heroes does seem the more likely candidate.
Heroes is a train wreck. It doesn’t deserve to be renewed, even if it is one of NBC’s better performing shows.
Fringe is far superior in writing, acting, a solid storyline, and he show actually makes sense, unlike Heroes.
If Fox isn’t happy with Fringe’s current ratings what else are they gonna throw I’m that slot? There is nothing they can put on that 9 pm slot and expect better numbers than what fringe has, other than house or AI. It would be interesting to see if Fox would be willing to air two new episodes of bones back to back, if Bones does it’s usual 2.7 at 8pm and drops to a 2.2 at 9pm than that would give them a better indication of how Fringe is doing.
Fringefan, but Fox could put something there much much cheaper than Fringe, so it won’t matter very much that the ratings aren’t great.
While I really enjoy both (Heroes is much better this season), Fringe is definitely the better show. That being said, I think Heroes would have a better chance of being renewed.
What if they switch Fringe and Bones? Bones has a solid fanbase
I’m still thinking if “Lie to Me” gets the full year (maybe it did and I missed it), “24″ will go to Thursdays. I can’t see FOX wasting the House/Idol lead-ins on a veteran series.
What that would mean for “Fringe,” I’m not sure.
As was said in the post: “Though it’s perhaps true that “Fringe” might do better at 8pm up against “Flash Forward” , not throwing “Bones” against “Grey’s Anatomy” makes sense. “Bones” skews more towards women and “Fringe” more towards men. If you have a show targeted at women, throwing it against “Grey’s Anatomy” makes no sense.”
Fox won’t run a test pattern in the time slot. It’s a mark of respect that Fringe is in the primetime of primetime, Thursday night. You want disrespect? Have the show moved to Friday at 9 after Dollhouse ends its run.
I’d go with Heroes, as it’s been said, even though Heroes ratings are bad – the rest of NBC is worse.
I don’t know about Fringe, I think it could go either way at this point. If it was produced by FOX that would be one thing, but it’s not. And I’m pretty sure it’s an expensive show, so that works against it too. I honestly think it’s fate comes down to what FOX has in development for 2010-11. It’s ratings aren’t horrible, but the cost to ratings ratio isn’t helping it any.
I originally thought Fringe’s move to Thursday was a good one because it showed that FOX believed in the show, but now I’m starting to agree with those that think it needs to move.
Personally, I’d like to see an all-out Battle Royale on Thursdays @ 9. Let’s have House take on Grey’s and CSI to see which show reigns supreme. I know most people would hate this because “there’s too many shows on Thursdays”, but there’s a reason it’s such a prime spot, and you should want your best shows on that night.
As for Heroes, I have a feeling that the original poster is right, and it’ll get one more year to right the ship.
Travis, if you want to see a Battle Royale on Thurday’s at 9, You’d Have Grey’s on ABC, NCIS on CBS, House on FOX, and Vampire Diaries on the CW. That’s all of the networks top scripted dramas.
According to the Gorman Index, Fringe is toast. 2.2-2.3 is outstanding for a Friday, not so for a Thursday.
When’s the last time a show in the lows 2s was renewed off-Friday by FOX?
As you guys say, the networks are ruled these days by numbers crunchers.
We’re heading into pilot season and I’m assuming FOX will have new pet projects that it will replace its weaker shows with; or a few game shows from which to pick that could score the same ratings buy cost way less.
Finally, NBC snatched up Abrams latest project, so FOX may not feel as beholden to him as it would have had they won the project.
@Dan-O: I don’t think Lie to Me has been officially given a back 9 yet, but as they’re casting beyond episode 13 at the moment (according to Aussielo) then it’s just a matter of time before they do.
As for which one gets renewed, I’d probably have to choose Heroes too even though I watch and love both shows. Although seasons 2 and 3 of Heroes were mostly a train wreck, season 4 has been surprisingly good, even with the “Carnivale” angle that many of us were dreading. I put a lot of that down to Robert Knepper’s character as he seems to be who the Heroes universe is rotating around. An excellent casting choice by whomever chose to. I hope they don’t kill him off any time soon.
My thoughts on Fringe are they dropped the ball with killing Charlie off and then bringing in a new female agent only to not use her again. I also hoped we’d be getting more Leonard Nimoy and more of The Observer but both have been sadly lacking, despite the way they were built up towards the end of season 1. The only plus point for Fringe is I do love where they’re going with Broyles. But seriously, more Nimoy and Observer will “save” Fringe more than moving it away from Thursdays against the juggernauts of CSI, Grey’s and Mentalist.
Bones is doing what Fox asked of it, improve the 8 pm ratings. Why would they move it to accommodate another show that is in trouble, but, then again, this is Fox and who knows how their collective ratings minds work?
Dan-O, FOX will never move 24 from Monday nights.
As you guys say, the networks are ruled these days by numbers crunchers.
Wasn’t the point that shows like “Three Rivers” will remain on the schedule longer because of the accountants?
Besides the abysmal numbers for Dollhouse, I think Fox freed up their Fridays just in case they need to burn off Fringe either this season or next.
Andrea, no question that Fox will be “breaking the rules” to renew Fringe with its current ratings. I’d say right now that its more likely than not to get renewed, but that’s completely a guess, there are no numbers to back that up.
I hope there are no T:SCC fans reading this who are also fans of one of the above shows, because you just KNOW that if the one they like is canceled and the other is renewed, they’ll complain that “Fox picked Heroes over Fringe!” (or vice versa) despite the fact they’re on different networks…
It should be Fringe or Lie to Me not heroes or lie to me
Bill,
I only see it if the current pilot season turns out nothing but duds.
JR,
It is sort of headscratching, but I would think CBS fears the wrath of Alex fans the way FOX feared Whedon fans…
Good call squiggle. NBC picked Heroes over Dollhouse, damn Jay Leno!
Tar, that post will come sooner or later.
Julia, in another post you also said you expect P&R and Community to get cancelled as well. Basing this off of the Cancel/Renew list, that would mean NBC is killing the middle 1/3 of their lineup. You really think they are going to cut all 3 of those shows, leaving them only with The Office, 30 Rock, and SVU?
Stacy, if NBC has any hope of surviving, they need to cut the dead weight. Even if they cancel everything other than SVU, The Office, 30 Rock, Leno and Fridays, they’ll only have to fill 3 hours with dramas and one hour with comedies. ABC and CBS will both be filling more than that. It’s far from impossible.
(Edit: I forgot Biggest Loser in my list of shows to keep.)
Julia, if Fox’s intentions were to bolster their Thursday night ratings than putting on a cheaper show wouldn’t help, I doubt something like kitchen nightmares would perform well going up against GA.
I disagree that Lie to Me would do the same as fringe in it’s timeslot, Fringe would perform much better than Lie to Me if it was lead in by house and Lie to Me would do worse than Fringe at 9pm on Thursdays. As many posters already pointed out, that will never happen though.
I gotta go with Heroes on this one. You give it one more season, advertise it as the last and NBC can keep the gravy train rolling on biscuit wheels for another year. As stated above DVD sales are still strong, and the ratings are about as good as NBC gets anymore. As an added caveat to this whole ordeal, next season Heroes will hit it’s 100th episode, which I’m sure is beneficial for syndication purposes.
I dig Fringe, and wish it well. It just doesn’t have as many feathers in it’s hat as Heroes does. To a certain degree the quality of the show doesn’t even factor into it (although I’m one of those crazies that would argue that neither show has more quality than the other, they are enjoyable, yet unbalanced and flawed in many ways), it’s all about the almighty dollar, and which one produces more of it for their network. Currently, that show is Heroes.
Fringefan, that was their intention. The question now is do they really think it’s worth it?
“In March, if “Heroes” is pulling a 1.5 adults in the 18-45 ratings, that’s a different story”
That will be a different story because the season is supposed to finish in February, before the start of the Olympics. Seriously, it’s also likely that both could not be renewed. I know Heroes is one of the best performing NBC scripted show, but that is damning it with faint praise, how could NBC have any faith that it could even hold on to the current low ratings in a new season. Fringe is in a different position that it’s lineup is strong enough that only poor timeslots are available, the recovery of Fringe to a 2.2 is enough to keep it on the air but it will have to improve to make it back next year.
Right now I think Fringe is a safer bet than Heroes.
Personally I wouldn’t be hugely surprised to see Fringe land on Friday’s either mid season or next season for two reasons, firstly the view has to be if it can average a low 2 Thursday at 9 then it has to be able to take that core audience (or something close to it) just about anywhere with it and secondly because that was ‘The X Files slot’, which if they did it mid season would then free them up to burn Lie To Me on Thursday before moving some reality filler (presumably one of the Gordon Ramsey shows) into the slot.
Having said that I think they should dig their heels in and keep the show on Thursday at 9 for the rest of this year and next year as well, at least for the first half of the year. The numbers aren’t good but I’m not sure what else Fox throws to those wolves right now but given their normal track record with the Thursday slot probably Glee. A reality show would obviously be cheaper and make worse performance less important but Fox put scripted content there to try and improve their numbers on Thursday (and its worked) and it seems like a backward, waving the white flag step to just switch back to unscripted next season.
As far as Heroes goes I think the chaos and ratings disaster that is NBC as a whole is the reason why Heroes is on dangerous ground, well that and its real world poor performance and horrible creative output. I can’t think of anyone show Gaspin can axe outside of Heroes that would more clearly show his intent to change the network and at least to some extent rebuild it. Right now I think there’s very little on the NBC schedule that Gaspin will want to bring forward to another season, the question for NBC next year will be how many new shows can they afford to produce – can they ‘pull an ABC’ and bring in a whole raft of new shows and only keep Biggest Loser, The Office, 30 Rock and SVU? If the money is there then maybe they should…
Of course that then becomes a question of whether the money is there or not.
Regardless of that Gaspin should be launching a new slate of shows next year and Heroes should be nowhere on the NBC line-up. However the big wild card in that is whether Heroes is still a profitable enough entity for Universal that they’ll force it on Gaspin or onto one of their cable networks. As things stand I’d think Universal ultimately forcing the show onto someone is the only way it survives.
I say both get renewed as long as neither take a huge dive by May. Fringe being able to get those ratings with what its up against has to be factored in, at the least they move it before they even consider canceling it.
Alex, I see no chance of Fringe on Fridays other than as a short-term shuffle then burn off move. FOX might have been willing to take that chance with Dollhouse because any international, DVD, etc would have all come back to a Fox owned production studio. That’s not the case with Fringe.
Plus since Dollhouse was an in house production and with Joss, they could push for more cost cutting than J.J. Abrams/Warner Bros would let them get away with. I think FOX would definitely view Fringe as too high cost for Friday.
FWIW, if the Human Target show is anything like the pilot, the show is gonna sorta suck.
Anna Torv is Rupert Murdoch’s neice. That’s a trump card Heroes can’t match.
The renewal/cancellation of these two shows could be an object lesson on the business side of TV versus the artistic arena. Fringe is better artistically while Heroes is a better economic product.
Therefore Heroes has the better chance of survival.
will tvbythenumbers leave fringe alone already!
Will you leave Fringe alone already?
@ Travis (and Tommy) – totally agree. Would love to see an out and out showdown of the top shows.
Both are pretty expensive shows. But Heroes is getting marginally better ratings than Fringe, on a network with a much worse average, in a slot that’s about the same tough (vs. House or vs. Grey’s, take your pick). So Heroes is more likely.
I’m still not entirely buying the “improved Thursday night” idea, because I don’t care if there was a rebound, 2.2 is still pretty lousy, especially for a show as expensive as Fringe. I mean if Parks and Community, less expensive shows on a less successful network on the same night, are pulling the same numbers and are in danger, then why wouldn’t Fringe be?
Fox has more successes to work with than NBC, they’re actually capable of launching a new series and having it be successful (see Glee) unlike NBC, and in Fox’s whole Sunday-Thursday spread, Fringe is their weakest performer, a little behind SYTYCD I guess.
So basically I think Heroes is pretty likely for a renewal whereas Fringe is unlikely but possible I guess.
Mumbo, yes both are expensive, but Heroes is at least produced by NBCU, Fringe isn’t produced by FOX. So while Heroes is expensive, at least NBC can profit on syndication, International licensing, and DVD sales.
Ms. Torv can certainly find another job, or not, as she wishes.
I hope heroes, because thats my fav show
I do find it amusing that when there was a discussion sometime last season about how Torv only got the job because she’s Murdoch’s niece, all the Fringe fans jumped on how she’s his estranged niece and there’s no way that helped. But now that the show might be canceled, the fans are jumping on that excuse to save it.
Julia, shhhhh. You’re not supposed to notice crazy fan inconsistencies.
I am gonna go with neither should be renewed, but both will be. I I had to choose in some crazy “gun to your head, only one survives” scenario, I’d guess Heroes, not because of quality or ratings or DVDs or who produces it, but simply because it is on NBC. And that’s what NBC does. Zero faith in their decisions.
Heroes, purely on the basis that I watch Fringe (and not Heroes).
i read somewhere that only 1% of usa population are measured by the neilsen system. the 99% of the usa population are ignored
I see them both coming back. But if i had to bet my life on 1 show, i go with Fringe, because new ownership at NBC is going to want changes.
People are forgoting it’s hard to move shows to different nights and expect fans to follow.
The Mentalist sophomore show like Fringe, also on Thursday, but lesser compeitition, down.
SVU is a 10 year show, moved to Weds against a similar show CM and it’s ratings down.
Look at CBS, it’s loaded, but Sunday, the 1st/2nd most expensive night for advertising and what does CBS have there? A new show in Three Rivers.
They also have a solid show 8pm Amazing Race, but nothing 9pm.
Cold Case was always one of there worst performing shows.
I would think CBS fears the wrath of Alex fans the way FOX feared Whedon fans…
I agree, with my assessment being “not at all.” Fans can be annoying and irrational, but nothing to fear.
Nemo, it’s nowhere near 1% that Nielsen measures for television, but through the magic of statistical sampling, it doesn’t matter. A complete census is not practical — there’s a reason the US only does “census” once every 10 years. It costs a lot of money and takes a lot of time.
But none of that matters, whether you can buy into statistical sampling or not, the ratings are based on that, advertising is sold based on the ratings, and most show renew/cancel decisions are based on the ratings.
J.R., people don’t necessarily fear annoying and irrational, but will sometimes go to great lengths to avoid it nonetheless. My vote with 3 Rivers is the accountants, but with Dollhouse, I think FOX’s past history with Whedon and how the fans reacted to it *might* have been something FOX wanted to avoid.
However, I think far more likely it was a wait and see thing. When the DVD sales weren’t anything special and people weren’t watching, FOX had seen enough.
Nielsen has people meters in about 0.02% of US households. Let the statistical Luddite-try begin!
Since Heroes costs more I would say Fringe is more likely to get renewed.
Heroes baby!
It’s getting so good again!
I want Heroes to be renewed! See as I dont watch Fringe.
Heroes is getting good again, not as good as the first season, but good.
I belive in both, I love both and Both need to be renewed! Fringe really needs a new night though thursday is tooooo much.
Robert, I don’t see why an executive would stick with a low-rated show because of fans he or she will never see or hear.
There is no hope for either. That’s like saying is there any hope for Jonas Brothers or Nickelback getting better in their music.
J.R., you’re hung up on some silly notion of fear of faceless fans. You can look at it however you want of course, but I don’t think FOX thought about it in those terms. Do the ranks of Hollywood executives act wholly rationally 100% of the time? Of course not. Otherwise Dollhouse would not have been renewed to begin with.
My bet is that both will be back. I don’t think Fox wants to annoy Abrams any more than they want to annoy Whedon. Not that that is a huge consideration, but while Fringe is not doing as well as it did in season one, it’s not doing so badly that it HAS to be canceled. The season two episodes have been uneven and the pace is slower – ALWAYS the mistake the producers make, like clockwork! Why in hell I have no idea…- but it’s not a disaster yet.
Now, as others have said, if Fox thinks they have something better to put in that time slot, and they don’t think Fringe will get any better, then they may cancel Fringe. But it’s not a given.
As for the fans suggesting Torv’s relations with Murdoch are significant, hey, that was one person in this thread. And it was Nick C who swore up and down that was the only reason she was hired in the first place – with zero evidence. So that’s irrelevant either way.
I think Fox would be wise to give Fringe one more season (or at least 13 more episodes, with an option for a back nine), even if it does have to be moved to some other less high-pressure night.
But Abrams needs to pick up the pace.
Both will get renewed, and I think both are around the same in terms of chances for renewal. Heroes has syndication and high ratings compared to the rest of NBC. Fringe has much higher quality of episodes, and of course the Abrams clout behind it.
Robert, I understand how you interpreted it that way, but I’m not talking about actual fear of being personally harmed. I’m trying to find out what harm to the network a “fan reaction” would do that the executives be trying to “avoid.” If you ultimately mean bad press, that is different.
“I do find it amusing that when there was a discussion sometime last season about how Torv only got the job because she’s Murdoch’s niece, all the Fringe fans jumped on how she’s his estranged niece and there’s no way that helped. But now that the show might be canceled, the fans are jumping on that excuse to save it.”
And I do find it amusing that you assume that people who point out her connections are fans of the show. Personally, while I think her being his neice helps the show’s chances, I am ambivalent about its survival. The last few episodes have been decent but it’s too little too late.
JR – I don’t think executives would make a decision based solely on their concerns about fan reactions, but it may sway them if they are on the fence.
A bigger “non-ratings” driving factor, in my opinion, is to maintain relationships with potentially collaborative show-runners — I think that was a big pull for Dollhouse (although I think JW’s “potential” is dropping) and is likely to be a non-trivial factor when considering JJ. Kring, as far as I can tell, is relatively disposable. So if it’s based on show-runners, advantage goes to Fringe.
On the other hand, another “non-ratings” component is overall network reputation. Fox had something of a sci-fi legacy, with the X-Files, and DH/TSCC/Fringe seems in large part an attempt to extend that legacy. If you ignore the lines that some of the more polarized fans draw, I would guess that the bulk of science-fiction fans respond “close enough” to all three of those shows. To drop all three of those shows (and not replace it with another scripted science fiction show) would represent a shift in their overall direction. Moreover, if Fox ever wanted to court that particular type of viewer again, it’s reputation may be hurt. On the other hand, Heroes has been much more tightly woven into the “NBC image” over the last few years than Fringe has, so I would argue that Heroes has the advantage here.
Neither of these two rationales are directly ratings related, but they do have an indirect consequence. For example, (1) it is quite possible that Abrams will come up with a new show that would turn out to be popular (and command ratings in the future). In such a case, Fox would not want to be written off, when the show is being shopped around. (2) As noted above, if a network sacrifices their reputation, it may be harder to draw viewers back into their fold when they do have something they want viewers to come back to. Imagine the CW trying to get back the WWE crowd…
Heroes should have been canceled two seasons ago. NBC could do better if they actually tried.
J.R., I think FOX wanted to treat it with kid gloves because of previous history w/Firefly. I agree with chaos amoeba that the kid gloves were driven more out of sense of not wanting to alienate Joss, than worry of alienating the fans, and that regardless it was probably more about appearances than any big hope the DVD sales would be on fire or that the ratings would return to the season one averages without promotion.
I understand and agree with much of chaos amoeba’s thinking with regard to managing relationships and appearances, but in some parallel universe where MNT gave up on Friday Night Smackdown! and The CW bought it back, fans of Friday Night Smackdown will tune to the CW to watch it.
I believe if you put on content people want to watch, they’ll watch regardless of what has transpired on the network in the past. Either way, when the numbers go from 4 million viewers to 2 million viewers, you’ve already alienated 2 million viewers anyway, at least in that time slot.
Um… I want both, and I refuse to choose.
I will throw in my 2 cents and say both shows will probably be renewed next season. That being said, if I had to choose between the two, I would go with Fringe.
Fringe has a lot of potential to grow and be better. I feel it has like a modern X-files feel to it, which is good enough for me. And J.J. Abrams has shown that he can run a quality television series.
Which brings me to Heroes. I find myself perplexed that some people continue to defend a show that lacks quality and consistency. This show makes Buffy the Vampire Slayer, Lost, or even Smallville look like the Godfather (I’m being nice). The tyrant known as Tim Kring is still running the show, and he has proven time and time again how unqualified he is to run a show of this magnitude. He would have been better off sticking with medical shows. Yet execs at NBC branded this guy as a genius, covering up his blunders in creating stories and blaming (getting other people) fired for his ineptitude.
So I say screw the DVD sales and the international appeal. The fact remains that Heroes has gone downhill. And I feel it will continue do so until it is canceled, making Tim Kring learn his lesson on how to make a real TV series. If Heroes is renewed next season, budget cuts and all, it will not solve the real problem of this show.
It annoys me that so many people who haven’t checked out Heroes vastly improved fourth season are still calling it a mess, its not anymore. ITS GOOD NOW!
Agreed. It’s a sucky show, but Heroes has better viewership, better index performance, better secondary revenue streams, and it’s produced in-house.
I think its fair to say that there was a whole plethora of reasons that went into the renewal of Dollhouse and that the actual ratings and expectations for the performance of the second season were relatively low on the list. The real bigger issue that goes hand-in-hand with the second season of Dollhouse is how many of those factors can be applied to other on the bubble or outright dead shows.
It seems like a fair assumption to make that Fox renewed Dollhouse to in part appease Whedon, they have future projects they’d like to work on with Whedon and want to have a strong working relationship with him. I think people also tend to overlook the importance of Dushku in getting Dollhouse renewed, Fox like her a lot and at least one of the projects Fox wants to develop with Whedon will also involve her.
Away from that there’s also the spectre of Firefly hanging over the Fox/Whedon relationship and it seems likely that Fox wanted to avoid another Firefly, although it should have been obvious that, that wasn’t going to happen with Dollhouse. It seems likely that there may have been higher hopes for the Dollhouse DVD sales as well. On top of that it shouldn’t be overlooked that Whedon slashed the budget to keep Dollhouse on the air.
So how many of those factors can be applied to Fringe and Heroes?
Undoubtedly Fox want to maintain a strong working relationship with Abrams there’s already a lot of provisional interest in his inevitable Star Trek show but do they want to keep the Fringe stars onside? It seems unlikely. And will Abrams slash the Fringe budget? Hard to imagine that happening.
Heroes I don’t think has any of those factors going for it and I suspect Kring and co. used up whatever goodwill they had keeping the show on the air this year. My guess would be that the departure of Bryan Fuller (who NBC would like to keep a good relationship with) will play a large factor in the shows fate as well.
Essentially though I think Dollhouse was a perfect storm. Its unlikely that any show is ever going to have all the additional factors Dollhouse had going for it…
well Heroes being renewed would help NBC in the long run and Fringe would just be one of those shows that was in a bad timeslot.Thursdays at 9 is a very competitive slot.Fringe not being renewed wouldn`t surprise me one bit.
Such an obvious question… Fringe! Heroes is dead since its third season!
Fringe is not getting renewed for a third season. The dvd sales were depressing for the show the international sales are not great lover then that of Heroes and the rating is even lower. J.J. Abrams should finish his story this season cause he is not getting a third year.
Heroes will likely be renewed for a fifth season if the ratings don’t drop drastically. I just hope they refresh the story and cast a little.
Heroes is definitely going to get renewed for Season 4, even if it never recovers its original luster. The simple reason is syndication.
At the end of Season 3, it had 59 episodes. To reach syndication level, it needs another 41. That’s two more seasons — 4 and 5. At that point, the production company will score.
This isn’t something the network would give a damn about with most shows, except that in this case, the network IS the production company. So even if they can’t make as much on the ad revenue up front, they’ll recoup that once they have a 100-episode package to sell to the rerun circuit. To get there, they need a full season 4 and a full season 5.
The payoff is big enough, and they’ve stuck it out long enough already and are close enough to that goal, that I see them letting the show run another year before pulling the plug. I would definitely say that the show runners will have to pull some amazing stories out, and pull a ton of viewers back in, for a season 6 to ever happen, but IMO season 5 is already a done deal.
And that’s really the problem regarding Fringe, because even though it’s a much better and more consistent show than Heroes, it doesn’t have those cushions. It has an outside production house — Warner Bros/Bad Robot — and only just on its second season.
That said, J.J. Abrams is something of a juggernaut and if Fox ever wants a shot at his next “Lost” (whatever that might happen to be), they might want to be very nice to him about Fringe. After all, “Alias” was #78 in the ratings for its second AND third seasons, ABC stuck with it, and Abrams gave them “Lost.” Hopefully, for fans of the show, that’s something that Fox is bearing in mind when they look at the long-term picture.
fringe just needs to move out of that thursday time slot i still dont know what fox was thinking
I just am keeping my fingers crossed that Fringe gets renewed-I’d be very upset if it got cancelled due to poor scheduling decisions. I don’t care about Heroes but could see it coming back due to syndication money and the current ratings woes at NBC.
F**K that Heroes bullcrap, I want FRINGE!
what will happen if neilsen expand their system and measure 1.2% – 1.5% of the american population. is that will boost tv shows ratings?
oh yea only 0.0000814332248% of american population is measured by the neilsen system, why not expand it? like expand to 0.0000900000000% or something. they have the money
nemo: what will happen if Superman spins the earth in the opposite direction and makes everyone go back in time? Nielsen measuring 1.2%-1.5% of the US population might be much more likely, but it isn’t going to happen either.
And nemo it’s closer to 0.02% (probably more like 0.0175%) so they are already in way more than .00009%!
I see both getting renewed.
This makes me think, What do you think would change first: the way they calculate the neilson ratings or the BCS system for college football?
I for one am rooting for Fringe.
I wish FRINGE but i think Heroes will have a much higher chance of renewal :[
Who gives a crap what “Fringe” sells on DVD. Does FOX see that money? Do they see any of the backend money from it? No, of course not. It’s not their show.
“Heroes” is NBC’s puppy. And it’s a big seller on DVD. And it’s a hit internationally. And it has an off-net deal on the G4 Network (and I think it was sold into broadcast syndication as well, correct?) If they feel there is more backend value in an off-net package made up of more than 78 episodes, then there will be more than 78 episodes. Let’s just say there isn’t a whole lot of backend value in a package made up of just 78 episodes.
With that said, I very much believe the rumors that Angela Bromstad and Jeff Gaspin are not fans of the show and couldn’t care less about it. So it very well may take a lot of poking and prodding from the accountants to sell them on a 5th and final season.
Riff, Fringe’s ‘off network’ success (or lack thereof) isn’t irrelevant to its future. Its true that Fox don’t see a cent of any profits Fringe might make from DVD sales but even if the show were a Fox Studios show they wouldn’t see those profits. DVD sales, syndication and international licenses are only relevant in any discussion of the future of a show because of how they effect the license fee the networks have to pay. If Fringe were selling boat loads of DVD’s then Warner Bros. would be in the position to potentially lower the Fox license fee to keep the show on air.
The basic principle is the same for Heroes, its international licenses, syndication and DVD sales only matter if Universal is willing to use them to off set NBC’s losses with a lower license fee. Sure its slightly more complicated than that because Universal own NBC but that’s the basic principle that applies to any and every show when it comes to off network success – is the success/are the profits so big that the production company will sell it lower to keep it on the air?
C’mon. Fringe will get renewed.
Abrams did an interview recently and spoke of how Fox had faith in FRINGE.
The execs. put FRINGE in it’s current time slot because they believe it can produce numbers over the long haul.
“Bones” skews more towards women and “Fringe” more towards men.”
I don’t know where you get your stats on this, the boards I am on that are Fringe related are like 80% women. And most of us watch Bones as well as Fringe.
I watch both shows but if I had to choose between watching Fringe or Heroes I would pick Fringe. I can’t really see NBC cancelling Heroes since it is one of the only good shows they have left.
@Elliot, Bones skews substantially more Female.
Last week Bones did a W18-49 rating of 3.45 and M18-49 of 2.30.
Compare that to Fringe’s nearly even gender split. W18-49 2.2, M18-49 2.15.
Its more likely Fringe gets renewed, but the state that NBC is in they could bring back Heroes. However, I still believe FOX will give Fringe another chance and try to develop the series.
Very, very sad. I believe that if Fringe still held its original time slot this discussion wouldn’t be held. It was doing great at that slot, then they pulled it. When that happened, I knew the show would suffer. It’s hard to say which will get renewed. I am very scared of FOX’s cancel record, and I’m pretty sure NBC is ready to throw everything they’ve got into Heroes as its one of the few things it’s got going for them. I used to be a fan of Heroes, but season three was such a mess I stopped watching. I really hope that Fringe is granted a third year, and moved from its time slot, possibly back to its original one, but I doubt that.
Dave, I looked at FOX putting Fringe on at 9 on Thursdays was a vote of confidence in the show. That is the hardest time slot on TV these days. I highly doubt that FOX did that with the intention of killing the show.
If NBC loses Heroes I think that will eliminate any DVR shows, NBC just sucks. Fringe is still new and interesting, though they turned up the story telling some on Heroes, seasons 2 & 3 were WTF?!
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118011366.html?categoryid=14&cs=1&nid=2562&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+variety%2Fheadlines+%28Variety+-+Latest+News%29
Looks like they’re gonna try to bring the numbers up.
Even though it still isn’t anywhere near as good as season one, this season of Heroes has been mostly watchable. It’s really hard to figure out what the hell NBC would replace it with even if they did give it the axe. Right now it’s one of the top flies on the crap heap that is NBC so it will most likely get the go ahead for another season.
I can’t picture Fringe going anywhere either though. It’s doing passably in a tough time slot and, like Heroes, I just can’t see what they would want to replace it with. Any new show is going to fizzle and there really isn’t anything on their current lineup that FOX would consider moving that would do any better.
Long story short both shows are excelling in mediocrity and probably will stick around until they totally tank or something else comes along that gives NBC/FOX an excuse to yank em off the air.
Heroes duh!
If they moved Fringe to 7pm against FlashForward, I guarantee Fringe would win that battle. FlashForward has become a huge dissapointment!
I have never watched Fringe and currently watch Heroes (although the last 2 seasons I teatered on calling it off, but I’m invested to far into the show now) I would have to say that if the hyped…and I mean REALLY HYPED Heroes like they used too (season 2 kick off, ads EVERYWHERE) and put it in a different time slot and or night (NOT compeating against House of CBS/ABC’s comedy blocks) they would get ratings back.
Why does it ALWAYS seem that when NBC has a good show on their hands, they let it go to hell?
Heroes. At least it has good actors on it. I could only stomach a couple episodes of Fringe. Horrible acting, writing, and storylines. Heroes was at least excellent its first season whereas Fringe was bad from the get-go.
I’m hoping Heroes. SO far this season is pretty good. I don’t watch Fringe though.
Heroes too.
I watch both shows but enjoy Heroes much more. Last night’s episode was so good.
I actually love both shows, and I think Heroes has come a long way from the days that alienated all the original viewers.
That being said, I think “Heroes” is more likely to be renewed. My reasoning can be simplified down to one word: FOX
To elaborate, if you didn’t already figure it out, Fox will cancel anything and everything. They also shuffle shows around far more often than is rational. They dump all new shows behind AI, then move them to a difficult or deadly timeslot so they can put the “next big thing” behind AI instead. I don’t have any faith in Fox to keep even halfway decent shows around, so why would Fringe be any different?
If the question were to choose one over the other for MYSELF, I would ask to keep “Fringe” because I think it’s been stronger more consistently (even though it’s been around for a briefer period of time), and JJ Abrams’ ideas and writing are so complex and interesting that I can’t see how “Fringe” will only continue to improve. Heroes has been very good this season, but given its track record, it’s hard to expect it to REMAIN very good.
Also, NBC keeps a lot of their lower-rated shows out of either desperation and/or loyalty to those involved in the productions.
Fox would cancel their own mother’s show if it meant they could put something new behind AI.