Of course maybe Rick is wrong, but…
Bill left the best stat from Rick out of his post: the NFL is seeing its highest average viewing across all networks through this point in the season in twenty years. Twenty years! While this isn’t data that confirms the speculation, it is at least data!
It’s all speculative, and hell, it’s not like we don’t speculate ourselves frequently and whether Bill likes it or not, the speculation itself is reasonable. Compared to all the Obama Endorsement leads to bad news for Oprah’s ratings, it’s in the realm of downright respectable speculation. Football ratings are up (best averages in 20 years so far!) and the economy is bad.
Unfortunately, there is no “Sunday Sports Bar Sales During NFL Games By The Numbers” to turn to. It would perhaps provide the best indicator of the impact of the economy on measured TV ratings (sports bars aren’t measured) for NFL games. Are there more people who live in Nielsen homes staying home to watch football rather than going to sports bars to watch? Perhaps, and perhaps not. Sadly, no data!
HDTV and big screen TVs may be a factor (completely independent of the economy)
What Rick cited as an effect may actually be part of the cause. People really like watching on their big screens in HD, and perhaps not just because it’s the best value for the buck, but because it is a great experience. And I’m not just saying that because *I* like it. I’ve talked to a couple of networks and the data suggests (I’ve seen nothing conclusive) that the proliferation of HDTV has led to more time spent watching football. They have some stats on HD viewing, but so far I haven’t been able to get my hands on them.
Combining the worst of both worlds, my rooting interest, The Washington Redskins blames both a bad economy and lack of compelling match ups as the reason some people aren’t showing up for games, and fewer people are watching on TV locally. Of course the match ups aren’t compelling. That’s because the Redskins suck!
I know I love me some football in HD. CBS HD is just so spectacular, feels like your there.
So, expect the numbers to fall as the HD novelty wears off?
HD is waxing not waning. Time will tell whether people who have HD watch longer is novelty or whether it really makes the games more enjoyable to watch. My guess is some of each is at play, but it’s just a guess.
Or maybe Robert is tired of me writing posts that pick on the silly TV media!
After a decade of about 97 percent sellouts throughout the NFL, several markets (such as Jacksonville, Oakland, Detroit and Cleveland) are struggling to sell tickets. Seems to me that, rather than pay ever-increasing ticket prices (plus parking, concessions, programs, gas and apparel for the family), buy the best HD flatscreen, 100-inch plasma TV you can afford and watch the games at home.
At least there’s no line for the bathroom at your house. There are probably also fewer drunken slobs cursing near your kids.
You do know that the apparel really isn’t necessary, right? I’ve been to many sporting events in my life and never bought merchandise at a single one of them.
Visiting this Web site isn’t necessary but people like to do it.
Dingo, conceptually, lower ticket sales = weak economy makes more sense to me than better ratings = bad economy, but there is no data I know of to support that either.
I didn’t phrase the link to the story on the Redskins correctly and I didn’t have the link right either, so it didn’t work. since fixed.
The Redskins blame people not showing up to games (they still bought tickets, they just aren’t using them or selling them to people who do use them) on the bad economy and it blames LOWER ratings locally on lack of compelling matchups. they were down over 100,000 per game on average through late October.
I’d guess both are more due to the Redskins sucking (AKA “lack of compelling matchups) than the economy. If the Redskins were 7-1, I’m pretty sure those seats would get filled and the ratings would be better.
Purely anecdotal, but my friends call me every single weekend ever since I got a giant plasma a couple of years ago. Then, when hoops season starts, they begin calling me during the week, wondering if I will be watching basketball tonight.
My dad finally picked one up, and now he DVRs all sports events at all times, just in case he wants to watch that game from six weeks ago during down time, and he never even used his DVR functions a single time prior to getting the plasma.
So, purely anecdotal, as I said, but it would surprise me not at all if HD is at least some factor in the increased ratings. Ditto the economy, which may be pure supposition (which isn’t even as concrete as something that is purely anecdotal), but nevertheless is not something that deserves scorn and derision.
Do you think Bill’s hair trigger has gotten finer the longer he’s been running a web site? Perhaps he’s reacting to all the great unwashed out there who rant and rave at him when they disagree with one of his posts? Sort of a dirtier version of the old if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em?
I have to say that its HD television leading to the ratings. HD is helping every sport, even leagues like the WNBA and MLS have experience ratings growth this year.
Schmoker, I’m with you. HD is an underrated factor in sports ratings being up and teh economy is a vastly, ridiculously exaggerated factor.
Here’s something to think about on the economy angle: If the weak economy were driving people to watch more sports, wouldn’t sports ratings be up disproportionately in the areas where the economy has been hit the hardest? ie, Michigan, Arizona, California, maybe Florida? But there is no such trend. It’s just lazy guesswork backed up by no data.