Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 22, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Ugly Betty (S), (F), (P) | 0.39 |
| Hank | 0.52 |
| Eastwick | 0.63 |
| the forgotten | 0.65 |
| The Middle | 0.71 |
| Castle (P) |  0.76 |
| FlashForward (P) |  0.97 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) | 1.01 |
| Cougar Town (P) | 1.10 |
| Modern Family | 1.18 |
| Private Practice (P) | 1.20 |
| V | 1.30 |
| Desperate Housewives (P) | 1.53 |
| Grey’s Anatomy (P) | 1.77 |
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Three shows continue to be in some danger of cancellation by ABC by the end of this season, but each has a unique situation. The Middle, now freed of the Hank albatross, jumped to a 2.4 adults 18-49 rating this past week. That was over 80% of ABC’s average for the week. A bit more ratings improvement would remove doubts about its future. Same with Castle. It has averaged 84% of ABC’s 4 week overall 18-49 ratings. Its ratings improved again last night, it’s prognosis is on the upswing. On the flipside, FlashForward ratings continue to deteriorate. After starting strong, it’s noticeably below average over the past 4 weeks (89% of ABC’s average) and it hit a series low on November 22.
the forgotten, has a full season an order for additional episodes, but there is virtually no chance it returns in fall 2010. Eastwick and Hank have both been officially canceled, but since they may continue to air for an unknown number of episodes, I will not freeze their Indexes yet.
Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It’s ratings are dreadful. There is some entertainment press chatter that Ugly Betty may move to Wednesday’s at 10 in January to try and “save” the show. It may very well move, but short of ABC wanting to produce more episodes for syndication (a longshot) there is no “saving” it.
Beginning this week, for show’s in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with sharply improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week Indexes instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
When did The Forgotten get a full season pickup? It was 5 additional episodes (so 18) last I heard.
Love the Smiley’s
I hope castle survives i really like the show. I also hate FF so by by.
I love Castle, Flash Forward, Cougar Town, V, and Desperate Housewives. Im really happy for castle and sad for Flash forward! I wish hope that the producers know what is going on and will try to fix it.
Igor, if Castle can hold these ratings I’d say it’s a safe bet it will be back for 2010-11. The Middle is also looking good for next season if it can hold the 2.4 demo. I don’t see how FlashForward can reverse the trend, even if the show becomes 1000 times better in the next few episodes it’s going to be hard to draw the audience back in.
I’m really interested in seeing how V performs tonight. I think V and FF are competing against each to come back next year, and right now it looks like V has the upper hand. If V plummets like FF did then both are done.
I still think it would be a wise move to move FlashForward to the 10PM slot on Wednesdays. It does get a big boost from DVR viewing, and while that’s meaningless maybe ABC could get move live viewers in a less competitive timeslot? It’s also seems more like a 10PM show instead of an 8PM one. Since FF is from ABC Studios I can see them trying a schedule change to try to help it.
With Ted and Scrubs likely dead after this year I hope ABC brings back The Middle. Such a great show.
I think ABC will be willing to let Scrubs and BoT go after this year if the ratings are as bad as they were last year. I really like BoT, but it doesn’t do very well ratings wise. ABC has 2 hit comedies (MF and CT) now, so I’d say the renewal bar for comedies will be higher this year compared to last.
I love the faces, what a fun way to express the four week data.
Brad, you are correct. It was not a full season for the forgotten.
Love the emoticons, clever
I hope FlashForward bounces back and that V will not drop for its 4th episode. And also The Middles climbs to at least 2.6
V will drop for its fourth straight episode. The drop may not be as dramatic as the previous drops (the curve is flattening out), the trend is still downward. It will be interesting to see what happens to V after several months out of the public consciousness.
I’m bummed about FlashForward, but not surprised. I’ve been watching the show since it premiered, and I really want to like it, but I’m continually underwhelmed. The concept has so much promise and the execution has just been weak.
The FlashForward writers really need to make the most of this week-long break. The plot has completely veered off the tracks over the past four episodes, but the premise is intriguing enough to still salvage a half-decent show.
Fingers crossed.
I love Castle and really hope it gets renewed. Nathan Fillion and Stana Katic have great chemistry, the two “other” police officers are good and the Mom and daughter are excellent! (Just read Heat Wave, the book tie-in and it was really good and really steamy!)
I am loving how much is going into the renew/cancel index this year. The color coding was great, but the smileys are the icing on the cake. The more depth that is brought to light on these shows the better.
Just another reason TVByTheNumbers is my homepage
I think FlashForward should get the same chance that Castle did to improve it’s ratings. Castle didn’t do too well last year either and it was given another chance this year to improve. I think they should do the same for FlashForward. Besides, this is a show I like. I don’t care for Castle at all.
Let’s keep watching CASTLE!!!, this show can’t go anywhere.
V will not come back. Not because of ratings, but because it is a 13-Episode mini-series.
I enjoy FlashForward but it proves that the writers of LOST are one of a kind. No show can equal its brilliance.
I think Castle will be back. It’s such a steady performer and in the 10 o’clock slot, no less. I don’t think ABC will give up on FlashForward. Despite dwindling ratings, the show has succeeded in carving out a pop culture presence (much like Lost did). I’m slightly sold on what some people think: it will come down to V or FlashForward in May but why not V AND FlashForward Tuesdays at 9:00 and 10:00 pm respectively next season. If FlashForward can hold the same figures, it’ll be a leading 10 pm performer for the net instead of a so-so lead-off on Thursdays. And The Middle I think really depends on the comedy development slate. If they need an extra player, it’ll come back but if they’ve got a lot of options they will trim the fat. The Middle seems to be catching on though. I hear more and more about it from friends and press. I think it’s got a shot at a future.
Flash Forward will get ample opportunity to stay on the sked for 10/11 – since it’s an ABC Studios show, as Justin Wilson would say, “I gar-on-tee it!”…
…but Castle also is an ABC Studios show, and likely has a lower cost of production than Flash Forward, and has managed the neat trick of increasing in the index over the past several weeks – shows that do that, and not from below a 2.0 demo, always have a chance, even on CBS…
…if Flash Forward can stop the bleeding quick, it will likely go back to green shortly. If not, then get ready for Dr. McCoy’s intonation, “It’s worse than that, Jim,…”
Castle actually beat Flash Forward this week, so the trend is definitely in Castle’s favor.
I think if ABC moves the middle to 8:00, or gives it a non-hank non-repeat lead-in, it will really improve.
How can Castle beat FF? Isn’t there no new FlashForward this week?
I think john was referring to last Thursdays episode of FF and last night’s episode of Castle.
@lindsey – Fair enough…IF FlashForward does indeed follow Castle’s trend from last year and improve after its midseason drop. People tend to forget that about last year…that damn Surviving Suburbia became Castle’s lead-in midseason and nearly killed it before ABC realized their blunder. After that, Castle became a solid performer again and started improving each week…kind of like it is now.
So, if FF starts gaining ground again at some point, THEN it might earn a chance, sure. If it keeps dropping (with the exception of the season finale bump, of course), then I don’t see why it would necessarily deserve another shot.
Hopefully ABC can build a solid Wednesday night comedy block, they already have the 9pm hour covered, getting beaten by Criminal Minds which has been in the timeslot for like 3? 4 years is no big deal, they really need to make the 8pm hour count though, after all, it will be up against American Idol, The Middle seems to be doing good now without Hank, perhaps Ted could be at the 8pm slot, drop Scrubs after May, it has run it’s course really.
Personally, I think that FlashForward is better suited for a 9pm or 10pm timeslot, it’s probably better off on a Tuesday after Dancing/V.
Throw The Deep End at 8pm Tuesday, I see it as a Grey’s Anatomy knock-off except in a law firm instead of a hospital.
I completely agree aznfratboy, I doubt that ABC will put FF on Tuesdays, With Lost claiming the 9pm slot, and DWTS most likely getting the 8pm slot. Depending on V’s ratings tonight (I’m thinking it will get mid 3’s in the demo) V will most likely get the post Lost slot at 10pm. Which really only leaves 2 slots as possible places to put FF, either leave it on Thursdays at 8, or move it to Wednesday at 10. I do agree that The Deep End meshes with Grey’s and PP. I doubt they’d do it, but if they delay the midseason return of PP by a week so they could use the post Grey’s slot to premiere The Deep End.
Also I don’t know how well Bot would do on Wednesdays at 8, it didn’t perform very well against Idol last year. ABC might have to settle for lower ratings at 8 on Wednesdays due to Idol. I think The Middle will get hit hard by Idol, I just hope ABC takes that into consideration when they decide whether to cancel it or renew it.
ABC has to give Flash Forward a chance. They did order an additonal 12 episodes for a total of 25. ABC has no choice but I think it will pick up. May go back to high 2s, maybe break 3.0 but if it does get renewed, it will be moved. ABC will most likely put a new hyped up show in that slot next year.
Heres what I think is to come midseason:
Monday
8-10 The Bachelor (Jan 4-March 1), DWTS (March-May)
10-11 Castle (Jan 4-March 29), The Deep End (April 5-May 10)
Tuesday
8-9 Shark Tank (Jan-March), DWTS results show (March-May)
9-10 Scrubs, Better Off Ted (Dec-Jan), Lost (Feb-May)
10-11 The Forgotten (Jan-March), V (March-May)
Monday works out perfect since Castle has 12 episodes left to air and The Deep End only has 6 episodes which Ive heard plus The Bachelor finale is usually 3 hours. It will end the second week of May like Castle did last season. Then The Bachelorette will start the following Monday.
Not so sure about how Wednesday will play out. I guess it depends how well Scrubs/Better Off Ted do. Plus theres Romantically Challenged. Maybe that can air 9:30 Mondays. I guess Happy Town will air Wednesday at 10. Thats the only timeslot left.
FH14 V is not a miniseries it is intended as a 4 season series
Castle has the advantage over FF because it’s a procedural. FF’s being serialized is working doubly against it; the people that watch it are tuning out and new people aren’t tuning in.
I don’t have any hard data to back this up, but I’d bet that serialized shows in general, when they start to tank, go down harder and have less of a chance of rebounding than procedurals.
Rob, isn’t the Bachelor only an hour long? I think Find My Family will be on Mondays at 9. Shark Tank will probably be held till summer.
Tommy, The Bachelor is 2 hours every week. I dont even see the point of Find My Family. What else can ABC air Tuesday at 8 Jan-Feb? They wont air a new show in that death slot. They might as well air a reality show.
“I enjoy FlashForward but it proves that the writers of LOST are one of a kind. No show can equal its brilliance.”
It also shows the producers of Lost understand the importance of putting beautiful people in torn clothing in a tropical climate.
rob, Scrubs & BoT will probably air Tues. at 8 until DWTS comes back. Those 2 comedies went against Idol last year, and I don’t think ABC has very high expectations for them anywhere they put them.
I hope ABC releases their midseason schedule already (or maybe they are still figuring how to schedule it as we speak)
I hope they will put something already on the spot of Hank to keep the comedy line up intact.
Why is everyone acting like “Lost” is going to come along and save ABC from going into a slump? Um, where have you been for the last 2 seasons? The ratings aren’t exactly magnificent. Actually, they are on par with what “Modern Family”/”Courgar Town” get. I doubt that just because it’s the last season ratings will improve. It’s just too complex of a show for viewers to who have not seen every season to return to it without understanding the plot.
Sam, Don’t make stuff up.
LOST’s lowest episode ever was 3.9, it average around mid 4’s last year.
Who said there going to save ABC, it’s in it’s final season.
The final season is being advertised as if the airplane never crashed on the island. So it’ll be easy for anyone who saw the season 1 or 2 to tune in.
I can’t say if people will tune in for entire season, unlikely.
Being final season, people will be curious and catch a glimse.
LOST is guaranteed to be ABC’s 3rd rated show behind Greys and Housewives. It might even give Housewives a run for 2nd place.
Every shows ratings have fallen, LOST has been consistent right around #10 rated show every year for last 5 seasons.
Castle not only has a crime to solve, it has humor and the most likeable guy on television as its star. It’s become quite addicting, and I hope the ratings continue to improve. I’d hate to lose such a good show just as it’s finding an audience.
I am cheering for the The Middle as it is my favourite new commedy! The youngest son and the daughter are just great!
Team it up with Modern Family and lose Cougar town and I would be happy. I watch 2 episode of Cougar town and ,in spite of the gorgeous Courtney Cox, that was all I could stand.
Modern family is ok but it does not make either my wife or myself laugh as much as the middle. (lowers voice) THE MIDDLE! And the funny thing is I really don’t particularity like Patricia Heaton in her other shows.
it hurts me to see brothers and sisters so close to being in red
what are the chances it can get season 5 and 6?
bite your tongue mike! Cougar Town is terrific!
Hank, Eastwick, Forgotten all won’t make it for 2010-2011 season, FlashForward and Betty are borderline, depending on how Betty goes after the comedy block and whether FlashForward will move into the Tuesday 10pm timeslot.
tim, Brothers & Sisters should be fine. It has syndication to help it over the hump should it need it. But it’s ratings still show that it should be renewed for another season, it could still drop a little and be ok at this point.
I think ABC could cancel a lot of shows this like the forgotten, FlashForward, Ugly Betty and Castle.
They gotta cancel Castle that show is cheesy!
betty hold on!!!!!!!!!!!!
I hope Flash Forward will stay around but shows based around time travel or time predictions are usually goners in the end.
Castle has gotta stay if only to make ABCFanatic2009 suffer lactose intolerance. Its very tongue and cheek and I like that.
I love Castle. It’s my favorite show right now and I watch it live.
I think word of mouth is getting around about CASTLE, this is a very entertaining show. If the dimwits cancel this show, one of the other networks will grab this in a heart beat. The chemistry is great with all characters, and Nathan Fillon character drives this show, and his co star the same. People forget this was a mid season replacement last year, and now a full season, the ratings will only improve. I think they will relize the gem they have and get it a chance, but there is not much on mondays except for some cbs comedy show, csi miami in the same time slot, this show is in a great spot.I thought the show wasn’t on this week but for some reason again tennessee abc has been screwing with all the programming,like V on at 1AM on every tuesday night for football looking at the titans, but my DVR caught it.
Yay for “Castle”! That’s my favorite show on television right now. It’s funny and engaging, and I just adore Nathan Fillion. I could watch him read the phone book and be entertained.
Gah, why do I always choose to like the bubble shows? I went through this nail-biting with “Chuck” last year (and probably will again this year, dagnabit).
I think mike stole a page from my diary. Okay, so I don’t have a diary. But if I did, that would be on a page from it.
Indeed, “The Middle” is ABC’s Wednesday crown jewel — and it does the virtually impossible. It makes Patricia Heaton likable for 21 minutes each week! Mark my words, it’s going to be a word-of-mouth hit. Or “American idol” will crush it and it will never be heard from again.
Shame about FF, It was nice to have something decent to watch for a change other than the usual mindless crap that comes out of the US! I stopped taking TV seriously when you guys gave us Grey’s Anatomy, Talk about mindless drival! FF is killing it in the ratings in the UK! Sorry America but you have crap taste in TV!
Tommy thx for the response,glad someone did.
Hey do u know if B&s has actually gone into syndication?
I love Flash Forward and guess what? Australia is getting the next episode before you guys in the US do. That is so awesome its not funny. We get our next instalment on Monday, which is Sunday your time.
As for Castle its awesome news. The more Castle we get the better. Its one of my favourite shows on tv atm.
Betty is toast.
Thankfully, that’s good news for Castle which can easily becomes ABC’s Bones if they play their cards right.
Love the smileys
Great news for Castle, and the show really keeps on getting better and better.
“After two straight weeks of falling ratings after its blockbuster premiere, ABC’s “V” stabilized on Tuesday night, joining the “Dancing with the Stars” finale to give the network a win in the 18-49 demographic.”
http://www.hitfix.com/articles/2009-11-25-tv-ratings-v-stops-downward-trend-as-abc-cbs-split-tuesday
tim, I haven’t heard of any network that has picked up Brothers & Sisters yet for syndication. It’s in it’s 4th season, so I would think that we’ll start seeing it in syndication after the end of this season. Desperate Housewives and Grey’s both started airing in syndication after their 4th seasons completed. I might be wrong about whether it was the end of the 3rd or 4th season for both DH and GA though, but I’m pretty sure it was the 4th.
Tommy,
didn’t Grey’s go to syndication after it’s 5th season actually? I believe it was after 5 seasons, not 4.
B&S might be alittle short for syndication.
1st – 13 eps
2nd – 16 eps (strike)
3rd – 24 eps
4th – 22 eps ?
Andy, I did some googling and Lifetime began running Grey’s in January of 2007, so that means that syndication started in the middle of it’s 3rd season. Weekend broadcast syndication started this year after the 5th season.
http://televisionista.blogspot.com/2006/11/greys-anatomy-reruns-to-air-on-cable.html
vsaint: I think you had a typo since B&S season 1 had 23 episodes not 13
vsaint, B&S is on the lower end of episode counts for syndication, but will have 75 episodes by your episode counts, which is enough to start syndication. Shows seem to enter syndication earlier every year (Heroes is already in syndication on G4.) A deal with Lifetime or another cable network would give ABC motivation to renew it should the show become a bubble show (Which it’s not at the moment.)
It sucks UB isnt getting better. The show itself is better than half the crap ABC has.
Idiots. Castle IS Bryce on FF. Lose Castle, keep FF, you still get Castle! (yes, that’s a joke, you morons)
I love The Middle! It’s so funny and refreshing. If you havent given it a chance you really should.
I find it amusing that the fellow named Pish, who posted in every single Castle related article about how it was going to crash and burn the moment DWTS wasn’t its lead-in, has vanished now that this has evidently shown itself to be incorrect.
Where are you, oh herald of Castlery doom?
I think B&S will get a fifth year regardless so it will be eventually safe for syndication. Private Practice despite being short should likely make it to syndication as long as it airs after Greys. As for The Middle and Cougar Town, I think both comedies can return along with Modern Family. Scrubs and Ted will likely be dead after this season. With Castle, the series test is how it performs airing after The Bachelor so I say Castle is 50/50, and as for FlashForward, the series still at 15 episodes so well have tpop wait until March atleast until we can make a good guess. Eastwick is finishing up in January and The Forgotten will be gone by March.
Yay! I’m ecstatic with the good news for Castle and The Middle. I remain hopeful.
I have to admit FlashForward seems to be hitting a wall. The last episodes have become dragging, and uninteresting. Also, Joseph Feinnes’ constipated acting is not helping. Would it even see April 29, 2010? That would be really funny if it didn’t. Although, I did have the same feeling with Lost, but that survived 6 seasons. Maybe ABC would give it another chance.