Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 22, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F), (P) |  0.54 |
| Three Rivers (P) | 0.55 |
| Cold Case (P) | 0.61 |
| Medium (F), (P) | 0.61 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.63 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.63 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.68 |
| The Good Wife (P) | 0.86 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (P) | 0.92 |
| CSI:NY (P) | 0.99 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.06 |
| The Mentalist | 1.09 |
| CSI (P) | 1.11 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles (P) | 1.12 |
| Criminal Minds (P) | 1.13 |
| CSI: Miami (P) | 1.20 |
| NCIS (P) | 1.36 |
| Two And A Half Men | 1.41 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.50 |
-
Three Rivers and Cold Case had their timeslots switched on Sunday, Cold Case did a bit better than its season average moving to 9pm (2.1 rating vs. 1.93 prior average), Three Rivers did just about as badly as always after moving to 10pm (1.7 vs. 1.77 prior average). A net ratings gain on the two hour block for CBS, which is likely what they were looking for. It doesn’t matter for the prospects of either show. They will both be canceled by the end of the season. Three Rivers may or may not complete its 13 episode order. Cold Case almost certainly will air all 22 episodes ordered this season, but it’s not coming back next year.
Accidentally On Purpose’s good timeslot following How I Met Your Mother makes its borderline Index of 0.92 look weaker than it would be were it elsewhere on the CBS schedule. Its prospects for next year are not bright.
In a big vote of no confidence, the episode order this season for Numb3rs was reduced to 16 episodes. It’s now in significant danger of not coming back.
The Good Wife ratings seem to be settling just on the edge of the danger zone for cancellation. On NBC, it would be a star, on CBS it’s borderline. Fans can anticipate sleepless nights until next season’s schedule is announced.
New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried ratings remain horrid, they were last season too. If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be renewed for yet another season.
Beginning this week, for shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with sharply improving or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week Indexes instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
-
Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I hope The Good Wife would go back to 3.0
how do u say that accidently on purpose has such a great lead in. If how I met your mother get 1.06 and they get a 0.92…. isnt that really good for a first year comedy…. they are not that far off the averge
Why is Christine marked as being ready for syndication but Gary Unmarried isn’t? Didn’t they start at the same time?
zeker, Christine began in 2006, Gary began in 2008.
Marc, I believe the words I used were “good timeslot”. Without factoring the timeslot in, AoP ratings are borderline. With the timeslot factored in, its leaning into the danger zone.
I don’t see the Good Wife going back above 3.0 again.
There’s 1 or 2 episodes before long break, before both IDOL and LOST come to Tuesday. Both shows will put dents in NCIS, it’ll hold up well. But NCIS:LA and Good Wife will both suffer with weaker leads ins and more heavy compeition. People aren’t going to choose new shows over fan favourites. IDOL, Lost, Biggest Loser.
I did notice that Cold Case did make #25 in total viewers which is a season high for them. Good Work!
Ugh… I expected Ghost Whisperer to have a higher index… especially after the really good episode last week(but the ratings weren’t that good). Anyway, it’s still on 0.63 so no worry. Although it’s surrounded by “Some danger”-shows… Hope Medium stays too, cause if it gets cancelled GW might be cancelled too… :/
God I hope Good Wife is renewed for Season 2, I plan on downloading the entire season in May.
Love The Good Wife. I hope it comes back as well. IIRC, seems it’s holding at around a 2.7 now, so at least it’s not dipping anymore.
I hope that Three Rivers can have many season.
It is a fabulous series with a very talented cast.
Very important: It provides a public service to inform the processes underlying the organ donation.
Sorry Isabel but I highly doubt that Three Rivers will be back beyond it’s 13 episode order.
In my opinion, they should have kept Without a Trace and cancelled Cold Case last year.
Last year, CBS announced their mid-season schedule on around Dec. 3, so it should be in the next week or so.
Here’s how they could do themselves some good:
SUNDAY: 7:00 – 60 Minutes
8:00 – Cold Case
9:00 – The Mentalist
10:00 – The Good Wife
MONDAY: 8:00 – The Big Bang Theory (Best of Seasons 1 & 2)
8:30 – Rules of Engagement
9:00 – Two and a Half Men
9:30 – The Big Bang Theory
10:00 – Miami Trauma
TUESDAY: 8:00 – NCIS
9:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles
10:00 – CSI: Miami
WEDNESDAY: 8:00 – Flashpoint
9:00 – Criminal Minds
10:00 – CSI: New York
THURSDAY: 8:00 – Undercover Boss
9:00 – CSI
10:00 – The Bridge
FRIDAY: 8:00 – Ghost Whisperer
9:00 – How I Met Your Mother
9:30 – Accidentally On Purpose
10:00 – Medium
SATURDAY: 8:00 – Crime Time Repeats
10:00 – 48 Hrs.
CBS will be silent on Cold Case’s prospects until the numbers for the back 9 are in.
Dee, I don’t think CBS will make that much of the radical change, I expect it will be a few changes with whatever replaces Three Rivers and Flashpoint on Fridays.
I haven’t felt satisfied with a Cold Case episode since the end of Season 5. I’ve been loyal and continue to watch but every show has been somewhat of a snooze. I won’t be sorry to see it go. It was a great show but I think it has run its course.
Dee- CBS would never do a TBBT rerun at 8 on mondays. and would never move HIMYM and AOP to Fridays. And where are Old Christine and Gary. They will both be on the air till at lease May. And that is tooo many changes to the schedule where it would confuse too many people. I mean you have every night completely different. CBS would never do that.
CBS will need at least 3 spots for new dramas next season.
Three Rivers and Cold Case are both gone .
I think the 3rd spot will come from Numbers or The Good Wife. Right now I think Numb3rs is in more danger , but things could change by May
The Good Wife is back to 2.8 hope it gets back to 3
Dee, have you not heard of Survivor or The Amazing Race? Dirt-cheap, critically acclaimed and commercially successful reality fare that always delivers?
I totally agree that my suggestions would be out of character for CBS to follow, and that they won’t happen that way. That doesn’t mean that ratings for their weaker timeslots wouldn’t improve. As for confusing viewers, I guess I have more faith in people than some of you. The key shows stay put and the program flow on several nights is improved. I see no reason to limit myself to what is likely to happen. That’s boring. Personally, CBS in the network I watch most, but I still think it could benefit from a good shaking up.
TNT, which had been running a two-hour block of “Numb3rs” every weekday afternoon, will next week move the show to once per weekday at 1 AM. As a “Numb3rs” fan, I was hoping the reruns would generate attention for new episodes on CBS on Friday. I have hopes for the show surviving (although it appears unlikely), but think it would be better suited in more of a male-friendly night/lineup.
Dee, don’t confuse daring moves with smart ones.
i hope they don’t cancle numb3rs!!! i LOVE numb3rs!!!!
Cold Case, I think, is guaranteed to improve once the NFL regular season is over, and viewers don’t need to play a guessing game as to when Sunday night shows will start. Three Rivers may also improve slightly, but CBS’s switching it with Cold Case was a major showing of confidence to the veteran Cold Case.
As for Numb3rs, CBS basically granted it an eventual death wish by putting on Friday. I’m very positive that it could succeed on any other night on CBS’s powerhouse schedule.
Max, Numb3s has always been on Fridays. And it has been there almost 5 years. Unlikely there was a death wish involved, and if there was, it certainly didn’t work out. Any new show would kill to be on the air for 5 years!
Cold Case had been a steady performer for 6 seasons and CBS moved it’s timeslot and look at what happened now.