Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 22, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) |  0.54 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.69 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.71 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.75 |
| Community | 0.82 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.91 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.97 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.12 |
| The Office (P) | 1.53 |
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On November 3 I wrote “Heroes: Far From Its Peak, But Far From Dead“. Including the night before (11/2), Heroes had averaged a 2.47 adults 18-49 rating its previous six airings. After I wrote that, Heroes’ ratings fell, going 2.3, 2.2, 2.3. That’s the difference between “OK”, and “Uh, Oh”. Those quicker than I to suggest unproven causality might be motivated to call it the “Renew/Cancel Index Curse”, but I think Madden Football’s out of my league.
Law & Order’s recent ratings improvement trend hit a pothole last Friday, when it sank back to a 1.4 adults 18-49 rating. Is that temporary or a sign of things to come? If it can hold a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating on Friday (maybe even a 1.6 rating) I think it’s back on NBC next season. With a 1.7 rating and assuming that NBC’s overall average falls after football to a 2.5, that would produce an Index of 0.68. CBS renews its Friday dramas with those relative ratings, I figure NBC will too.
Trauma got an order for three more episodes. Sort of like a condemned man being given three more days to live. Mercy’s ratings make it certain to be canceled at the end of the season. It has a 22 episode order, but it has done no better than Trauma.
Parks & Recreation has relatively perked up lately in the ratings, and the ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates.
Beginning this week, for show’s in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with sharply improving or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week Indexes instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
It will get at least one more season. This is NBC we’re talking about.
I love you #trauma.
That is all.
FIRST!
The Thursday block is starting to get good. Parks last week was pretty funny, as was Community.
will Chuck help or hurt Heroes in Jan? It has to do better than whatever is there now, and NBC is promoting Chuck everywhere, with some really good spots, too…Seems the Chuck fan base is excited. I used to watch Heroes after, but last season lost me. I think Heroes is played out…
no, third….
i just hope that if this season or the next is the end for Heroes they plan it that way so it can end with a sense of conclusion. That is all I ask for.
If they cancel it this year, i’ll doubt we’ll get a proper ending.
I’m pretty sure it’ll get at least a 13 episode final season next year, unless Comcast decides to go nuclear.
That would be unfortunate especially since this season has been pretty damn good imo.
No! Have mercy on Mercy!
I hope NBC doesn’t cancel it.
If they do, then they are getting rid of BOTH of their new medical dramas?
And does anybody know what the Mercy hiatus is about?
And also: why didn’t Mercy get an improving smiley? Last week they got #1 in their timeslot AND the second highest rating they’ve ever gotten (excluding the premiere.)
dom, those ratings you are referring to are total viewer ratings. The index uses the 18-49 Demo, the Demo is what networks use to base renewal and cancellations. So while Mercy “wins” it’s timeslot in total viewers, it barely beats Modern Family repeats at 8, and gets beat outright by The Middle in the demo. And no matter how it does against the other networks, NBC will not be using that comparison when it comes time to decide to cancel or renew Mercy. They will be looking at how well Mercy does in the 18-49 demo compared to the rest of their shows on their own network. Using that data, and excluding the Friday shows (because Friday’s are different) Mercy and Trauma are in a virtual dead heat for last place on NBC. As far as them canceling both medical series, don’t be surprised if they have another medical drama in development for next year to replace them both.
Maybe Heroes will end next season.
Its sad that Heroes went downhill from writing and ratings because it started really big and good
If nothing else, this season of HEROES offers hope for fans of FLASHFORWARD: if a storyline that went as far off the rails as HEROES did in seasons 2 and 3 can be salvaged (in what is a fairly decent season 4), the last few episodes of FF need not be fatal to what is an intriguing concept. Fingers crossed for both shows.
I wonder if Heroes will do any better at 9pm come January. I hope that Chuck get’s better ratings at 8 then Heroes is getting now. The ratings carnage at NBC has me worried when it comes to Chuck. On the plus side, if Chuck can pull the same ratings it was getting last year it would be considered a rock star on NBC at this point. Heroes fate is hard for me to judge, yes the ratings are going from bad to worse, but there are other factors when it comes to Heroes that benefit it. So who knows what NBC will end up doing with it.
Jordan, while I agree FF can improve in quality the comparison is apples to oranges. Heroes was a blockbuster for all of it’s 1st season, and it bled viewers for the next 2 seasons to the point that it’s now in danger of getting canceled after the 4th season (and I must admit, I almost gave up on Heroes last year, but this has been a much better season quality wise.) FF on the other hand had a blockbuster premiere and bled viewers within a few episodes and not over the course of 4 seasons. So unless FF can turn it around in the 2nd half of the season there will be no way ABC brings it back for another season.
Tommy, from a commercial point of view, I agree that FF’s sudden ratings descent cannot be compared to HEROES: the latter show clearly built up a lot of goodwill with its stellar first season ratings. FF doesn’t have that goodwill, and will surely fail to achieve a second season if its ratings don’t pick up soon.
But, purely from a writing perspective, if a storyline that had gone off the rails over the course of some twenty or thirty episodes can still be salvaged, there must be every chance of the FF writing team turning round the past six or so. As the pilot ratings show, FF does have an intriguing concept: if the writers can start to deliver a worthy show, I’m sure the viewers will flock black.
Thanks for the explanations, Tommy!
If NBC cancelled every show that wasnt doing good that would only leave them 2 or 3 shows next year!
So we all know Heroes is safe!
Cant help but wonder if that scene where Claire slits her wrist was telegraphing NBCs plans for the show.
Its time to end that train wreck and have the circus guy blow up the entire planet – KABOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM !!! Now thats what I would call “going out with a bang”.
Exactly Rich. Heroes will be here through next season. The early ending to this season will give the writers time to come up with a satisfying conclusion for next season.
Also I think P and R and Community are safe based on steady viewership and quality.
I used to fight for Mercy..but I watched the next couple of episodes..and it’s terrible.
Stop using last week’s text, it gets annoying.
Mercy keeps getting better i n quality measures, however it gotta keep itself above the 2.0 mark in 18-49 in order to be renewed. And that’s why i’m crossing my fingers for.
Fed up of people calling Heroes a “train wreck”.
Its fair enough to say season 3 was poor and I totally agree but season 4 has been really good and if you aren’t watching, don’t f**king comment on its quality anymore.
For a network that has already thrown in the towel on one-third of its prime time programming, and has proven incapable of creating and sustaining one single successful scripted program (other than the Dick Wolf franchises), I propose the NBC solution:
8-9 pm M-W: The Biggest Loser
8-9 pm, Th.: L&O: SVU
8-9 pm, Fri.: L&O
M-F, 9-10 pm: Leno
M-F, 10-11 pm: Conan
M-F, Late Night: Kimmel
Cut losses. Pre-empt all with football whenever possible. Prepare to fold the network into a 24-hour infomercial/home shopping network marketing its own extensive line of weight loss products.
:^)
Er, wasn’t that a 1.5 18-49 rating for L & O last Friday (not a 1.4)? And yet, as its demo fluctuates, it is still pulling in the same 7.5-8 million viewers every Friday. And still going up 25-30% in the L+7 ratings.
Seems that the whole NBC schedule is now caught in the Leno Death Spiral.
“Its fair enough to say season 3 was poor and I totally agree but season 4 has been really good and if you aren’t watching, don’t f**king comment on its quality anymore.”
In response to the above quote, I’ve seen every episode of Heroes this season, and I’d just call it ok, to be honest.
plz have mercy and dont let us go into trauma over a next season of heroes!
i mean HELLO? plzzzzz its so bad i just watch it to get some fucking closure with thits fuck. Season 1 was so great and now? HRG man having a girlfriend that pops out of the box like “hey i was always there”.
Clair being bisexuell now? (WTF???)
well i just hope sylar kills every last one of them, cause he cant die anyway…. maybe have some kids with claire as she cant die either and he can go into anyform claire find hot.
Larryville Slim: How do you propose that NBC puts an ABC show (Kimmel) on NBC Late Night?
I will still just say that I have no idea if MERCY will be given another season, just that it deserves one, is the best new show of the year, and that if it is, I think it will slowly find an audience which will give it a five-year run.
NOOOOOOOOOOOO!, what is wrong with people, why don’t they watch heroes anymore? its a great show, omg this is a disaster
I kinda dig Mercy. It used to be background noise…but its grown on me.
Last week’s “Heroes” was PAINFUL to watch…the one with the Tracy and Claire bonding session and a boring return of Mohinder. For the life of me I can’t figure out the need to show Claire every single week. I am so sick of that character. She’s not doing anything. She’s not learning anything new about herself. I don’t get the interest in her. And Mohinder. OMG. I can’t figure out what role this character is supposed to play on this show. One minute he’s just a curious observer of people with powers and then the next he’s a mad scientist. Now he’s just a snooze. The storylines on this show seem to be on repeat mode. When are the heroes going to start being heroes? I’m sick of them just saving themselves week after week. Whats the point of having powers when you don’t use them for anything?
the last episode of mercy with the real housewife of new jersey was so funny! the best episode of the season! im so in love with chloe and veronica, and mike is such a puppy
i can see a loooong future for this show !!!! it deserves it!
community is hiilarious!!! if they let it go over parks and rec then im done with NBC
I mostly agree with Danny: Claire and Sylar do NOT need to be in every episode!
Although at least Mohinder only came back for 2 episodes and then died/left in insane asylum forever. That’s some comfort
This week and last week’s Heroes were actually pretty good imo. Some eps this season have been a little boring but most of them have been good, and at least the characters are doing normal things instead of last seasons trauma – mohinder the fly?! WTF were they thinking?!
“Mercy” is safe, if I’m one of the executive of this fourth-place network, and nobody watch my new shows except for “Mercy”, i would renew “Mercy” eventhough it’s not a strong player in terms of 18-49 key adult share…… 7 million viewers per week, you dont see that everyday plus 1.9 average is passable since it’s on a slow timeslot.
i would not be surprise if “Heroes” is still on next fall 2010.
and i dont expect much for “Chuck” this season…. i dont see why people skip the show
“Trauma” is dead. “Law and Order” for 21 is possible, “Parks and Recreation” is nbc’s big bosses favorite…i heard. “Community” might need CPR if the ratings didn’t improve
….. and one more thing i dont see why nbc is so devoted on it’s thursday line-up, i think nbc’s scheduling gurus and executives should think for once
NBC needs so much to move L&O from Fridays.
Last year I made the decision that I’ll completely stop watching NBC if Heroes is canceled. I’ve gotten attached to way too many NBC shows for them to just be up and canceled.
If Heroes ends like Las Vegas did then I’m going to completely shut out NBC and will not be watching any of their new shows. I’ll continue to watch the Office on Hulu (and Chuck).
The problem for me is Heroes has run out of interesting storylines for these particular set of characters.
It was suppose to be like 24, where characters are replaced every couple of seasons, but they decided to go the LOST route and it got boring.
vsaint that’s bullshit!
@Devdog–
Sorry. Middle-aged brain fart. Fallon. Not Kimmel. Fallon.
Laugh a little, dude! It’s good for you!
I’m a working musician by night — if I’m home at 12:30 a.m., I’m probably asleep…
Below is my corrected attempt at humor. Went over like, um, a lead zeppelin!
<>
For a network that has thrown in the towel on one-third of its prime time programming, and proven incapable of creating and sustaining one successful scripted program (other than the Dick Wolf franchises), I propose the NBC solution:
8-9 pm M-W: The Biggest Loser
8-9 pm, Th.: L&O: SVU
8-9 pm, Fri.: L&O
M-F, 9-10 pm: Leno
M-F, 10-11 pm: Conan
M-F, Late Night: Fallon (the artist formerly known as Kimmel)
Cut those losses! Pre-empt with football whenever possible. Prepare to fold the network into a 24-hour infomercial/home shopping network marketing its own extensive line of weight loss products.
:^)
Scott, do you think NBC should keep Heroes around forever, no matter how terrible the ratings get? They have to end it sometime. I agree they should at least let it conclude, as anyone masochistic enough to stick with the show this long at least deserves that much.
one more thing i dont see why nbc is so devoted on it’s thursday line-up,
Because it gets good ratings in the 18-49 and 18-34 demos as well as the high-income demos, which means they make a lot of money off of that line-up. Comedies also do really well in syndication, so they can look forward to extra money from that as well.
The 9:00 comedies are two of the highest rated shows on the network. The 8:00 comedies aren’t faring as well, but they are doing better than either of the new dramas and Leno.
Larryville – you forgot Dateline and Trump – now the Donald will have to go all Jesse Ventura on you
@vsaint i see your point, but I do think the story line is started to pick up with the introduction of Robert Knepper. The problem for me is that whoever the writers decide to kill they can always come back to life due to time travel and other abilities.
@Donnie no, i guess I’m just on the fox news bandwagon
I don’t like NBC much to begin with. If Heroes gets a proper ending then I’d be fine.
I know hereos will do wayyyy better in janurary, when it gets ITS timeslot back, the timeslot its always had…9/8c where it belongs, cause right now its competing with House and thats BIG competition.
I thought Heroes’ season was going to be done by January?
The olympics are coming NBC so find a hit and promo the heck outta it!
and i see NBC bring Americas Got Talent in Fall 2010
Cancel Heroes!
@ Theoacme –
Yikes, you’re right. The wrath of The Donald is considerable. Did you see the ESPN special on who killed the USFL back in the ’80s? Many think it was The Donald. Great clips of it here, including one where Donald says he’ll “attack” reporter Charley Steiner for his criticisms:
http://30for30.espn.com/film/small-potatoes-who-killed-the-usfl.html
@DryedMangoez I am with you except I would like closure for the show. Its time.
I tape Heroes for 2 weeks and the third week I watch them all in a row. So I screw them up pretty badly.
It made me dispointed.
I hope Heroes will be better.
”The 9:00 comedies are two of the highest rated shows on the network. The 8:00 comedies aren’t faring as well, but they are doing better than either of the new dramas and Leno.”
i don’t think 30 Rock is this big Hit.. its just really lucky to have a strong lead in.
i don’t think 30 Rock is this big Hit.. its just really lucky to have a strong lead in.
I agree, but as it stands, it is still one of their highest-rated shows.
HEROES WENT DOWNHILL BECAUSE OF THEFT AND STUPIDITY.
Heroes is finished and it was finished the moment tim kring stole those NYC artists IP.
Every one worth anything in the tv and film industry know this fact.
NBC is a joke and hopefully those NYC artists are having a well deserved laugh at those morons at NBC.
BANG!! BANG!! you’re dead Heroes and may you rot in hell.
What a bunch of retards.
PARKS AND RECREATION IS THE BEST SHOW IN ALL OF TELEVISION RIGHT NOW. No way they cancel it given the critical acclaim this season is getting. I’m expecting Emmy nods for Best Comedy, Best Comedy Actress (Poehler) and Best Supporting (Nick Offerman, Aziz Ansari). Best cast on TV too (Chris Pratt especially has been ridiculously funny this year). Just like 30 Rock, critical acclaim will come before ratings (although 30 Rock wouldn’t do much better than P&R in that time slot)
Heroes and L&O could go either way at this point. NBC is in bad shape and its a toss up. Id say in terms of comedy Community can definitely get a second year and Parks MAY return. Trauma is dead and Mercy is only 6 more episodes away from being dead.
everyone,jay leno at 10pm is the biggest mistake for nbc, the ratings
are worse than heroes ,trauma and mercy . svu should be back at 10pm
tuesday nights.law and order back at 10pm thursdays put mercy and
trauma on fridays but first cancellllllll jay leno nowwwwwww.
mercy and trauma did not really get a chance to succeed they should both get another day and time both shows are very good so there
chuck is a waste of time. any tv show that nbc has will lose against two and a half men on monday nite rite rite.
OMG its doing better now, ALL OF U HEROES HATERS CAN STOP HATING ON HEROES NOW!, heroes is really a great show, wtf would it get canceled for?