Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 22, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Beautiful Life: TBL (P) | 0.49* |
| Melrose Place (P) | 0.56 |
| 90210 (P) | 0.79 |
| Smallville (F), (P) | 0.82 |
| Gossip Girl (P) | 0.88 |
| One Tree Hill (P) | 0.89 |
| Supernatural (S), (P) | 0.91 |
| Vampire Diaries (P) | 1.29 |
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Melrose Place’s addition of Heather Locklear to the cast failed to generate much of a ratings updraft. Now, the only thing to do is wait until May when we see it’s not on next year’s schedule. Fans, however, may wish to call upon divine intervention, because that’s what it will take to save the show.
Note that Smallville, Gossip Girl and One Tree Hill have yet to air a repeat, while all other CW scripted shows have. Right now that puts them temporarily on the up side of the see-saw and the others on the down side, but things should even out once every show has a similar number of repeats into their averages which will happen in the next month or so. At the moment 90210, Melrose Place, Supernatural and Vampire Diaries are a bit lower in the Index than they should be for that reason.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
How can there only be one show above .93?
Even with VD repeats included in the index, VD is a monster compared to the rest of the lineup.
Don’t forget that America’s Next Top Model’s ratings are in CW’s average rating, but it’s not in the list above.
To Cullen: presumably because of ANTM which I believe is their #2 in 18-49.
wow, I wonder if Melrose Place will go below TBL.
Of course they have their new spin off!
Stargate Melrose Space!
Is 90210 in green because CW has NOTHING else to offer except for rich kids complaining about their lives? Also, Supernatural isn’t coming back for another season, or so Kripke says.
Am I the only one who thinks Melrose would go on for a good few seasons if it somehow managed to survive this one?
The rigid serialisation of Sidney’s murder has made it very difficult for viewers to return after missing an episode or two. A switch to a more self-contained format in season 2, coupled with DVD sales and reruns of season 1 to allow catch-up, and I think the CW could have a mainstay.
It’s not a bad show.
OMG no it cant be cancelled i love this show, come on people start watching!!!!
I’m so tired of The CW’s pathetic rich kid soaps… no one wants to watch this overhyped crap!! The ratings are telling that story. They should have more varied programming and forget this stupid idiocy. Dawn Ostroff must be removed immediately and they need to come up with a new startegy! Ostroff is running that poor netlet to the ground.
@Remus Wow!
Can the CW really nor renew Supernatural if the cast and crew are up for it, they dont have anough programs to fill an entire week as it is! They need to keep hold of veteran shows like SN, OTH and SV and start adding some new shows to the weekly line-up. As it is most of the shows are about to go on hiatus which means re-runs for god knows how many weeks! Ratings arent exactly great for origonal episodes let alone re-runs! This has got to be the worst organisation in TV history! Sort it out!
Melrose place isn’t a bad show, i’ll probably watch it till the end.
They should end this show where all of them are on a Party Bus rumbling down a mountain after a weekend ski trip and an earthquake strikes sending the Party Bus over the edge of the cliff, concluding with a large fireball. Luke Perry, dressed like Rod Serling stands looking down on the burning wreckage intoning “Well, looks like this group was obviously on a one way trip to Loserville.”
Kripke is signed for 5 years and has a 5 year arc planned out but he is not ruling out the possibility of a 6th year. He has stated that he has ideas for season six if they want to continue. Also the two leads are signed for one more year.
The diffusion of Melrose Place would be change to have better ratings! No TUESDAY , because there are NCIS: Los Angeles and Lost and American Idol soon !
I will sure that Melrose Place have the potencial to be a success because Heather Lockear’s addition and the new direction give a new chance !
I hope that Melrose Place will have a season 2 because it’s a veritable show!
Kathy is right – Kripke may not return for a 6th season but the two leads are under contract. Given the lack of another compatible show for Vampire Diaries I think a 6th season for Supernatural is a given.
It may be time to retire Smallville though… OTH still has another year left in it.
Th CW without the veterans (OTH, SN and SV) is NOTHING. Especially OTH deservs so much to be renew!!!
They need to move MP to Mon or Weds nights, yet another good show that will get the axe
OMG!!! I want supernatural with more seasons. I just love the show. CW doenst deserve to have this show because there is no kind of promotion!
Totally agree with Andre!!!! Supernatural, Smallville and One Tree Hill= NO PROMOTION!
There’s no way I’d leave MP up against Lost, NCIS and Idol. People are staying home more on Fridays; MP couldn’t do any worse following Smallville. At the very least, move it to Wednesdays.
Why does it seem like this website is literally stalking Melrose Place? A week can’t go by without you guys picking on it and updating yet another index. It seems like the people who run this site have something against the show personally. I don’t get it. There’s a lot of other shows doing poorly in the ratings as well. Pick on them for a change and give Melrose Place a chance to grow / change.
Robert, it seems that way to you because you’re a huge, huge fan of Melrose Place, and so you don’t choose to notice that we also “stalk” Dollhouse, Fringe, Three Rivers, Cold Case, Mercy, Trauma, the forgotten, Eastwick, etc. for being the lower-rated shows on their respective networks. So when you say “pick on them for a change”, we absolutely do!
But on the CW, Melrose Place is the ONLY show that is in huge trouble, and since it’s the only show YOU care about, it’s the only thing YOU notice.
Not OUR problem
Happy Thanksgiving!
Well Smallville was the top watched show untill they moved it to friday! Any other show that the CW has would have already died there!
the series vampires diaries more fully smallville has become a garbage only sex clois now, that shit is ridiculous series called, is a absrudo, no one else watching … the best series is currently vampires diaries where Damon, Elena and Stefan are perfect … they make good on the television series deserves the first place, and the other best second series is called the cw supernatural which also has two really great actors Jared and Jensen are very good and the series gives an outstanding story too, cw should just cancel that garbage called smallville it’s over a long time, and further promote its top two series with top quality, diaries vampires and supernatural! VAMPIRES DIARIES FOREVER !!!
Winston – you forgot the B-52’s…
…both the bombers, and “Love Shack”
I have nothing concrete to base this on, but I am beginning to sense that the CW will be a somewhat more diverse programming landscape if it is still around a year from now. With what I am gathering on their pilot development, it seems like they may finally be turning to a more WB sort of strategy. I hope so. They have been such a One-Note Joanie under Lady Dawn’s regime, pandering to the single most fickle target audience anyone could possibly imagine. It was stupid, and it was never going to work. Change or die, CW. Those are your choices.
There only going to have 2 spots next year.
I doubt they’ll program friday 9pm.
Smallville and Supernatural are guarantees to get picked up. They need another show or 2 to stick, before they can move on from SV, Super.
Maybe Life Unexpected is it.
90210 RULES!!!!
@Robert Seidman
The way you guys report about those other shows is completely different. You report on those shows very unbiasedly. With Melrose Place, you guys seem to take glee in the fact that it’s doing poorly. Now, I’m not such a blind fan of MP that I haven’t noticed it being done with other shows such as Fringe and FlashForward – two shows I don’t even watch, but I think you guys are blind at what you do if you haven’t noticed a lot more hate and personal opinion being attached to MP than the other shows you report on. Just my opinion, but it seems to be a popular one. Happy Thanksgiving!
So everyone will be back except MP…I guess they dont have any one else to put on
I think Viewers can smell when a Network is desperate to save a show and the Cw were desperate with Melrose. Everytimw i watched OTH i saw a bloody promo for it.
I was looking forward to the melrose place revamp! but noooo now i dread watching that show. All they talk about is the same issues,she died and they try to figure out who it is the whole season with ashlee simpsons crazy self! ughhh
btw 90210 is AWESOME! i cannot wait till tuesdays!!!! the vampire diaries
))))) thats my new love. they cannot keep a network running without the shows. i used to love one tree hill, but they used every drama possible. time for an end 
Volume 2 of Season 5 of the old MP came out this week. If the new one gets canceled, so be it. Wonder why Amanda is in a church though and who that girl is.
I’d like to ad that killing Sydney Andrews did no favor to the old series ratings either.
As I see it, the look of the CW’s fall slate hinges on three factors: whether Life Interupted clicks, whether Supernatural retires, and, of course, the quality and potential of the new pilots in the works. I would not be surprised to see three or more hours of new shows in next season’s mix. If all three of the above are positive, then they could very well eliminate one of their teen soaps.
It is too early in the pilot season to know what shows they will have to choose from, but we are free to speculate:
MONDAY: Life Unexpected / HMS (med school)
TUESDAY: 90210 / One Tree Hill
WEDNESDAY: Am. Next Top MALE Model / WHERE THE ACTION IS (reality)
THURSDAY: Vampire Diaries / GHOST (based on Swayze movie)
FRIDAY: Metropolis / GLOBAL FREQUENCY
Thats Sydney in the picture!!!!!!!!! Thats a picture for episode 12, the episode we find out Sydneys murderer.
I love Supernaturaal *—-*
Episode 12 is LL’s final episode, probably forever. If it gets canceled after 1 season, it’ll just be remembered as the show that returned full of continuity errors while killing fan favorites.
100% SUPERNATURAL!!!MUITO DOIDO….E MUITO LEGAL….!!!
I can not believe people like 90210..well not too many but some..it is soooooooo awful..im sorry it just is..but of course it is the cw network..not brimming with great shows over there..watching every time warner entity humping everything on the network is absurd
Why does it seem like this website is literally stalking Melrose Place? A week can’t go by without you guys picking on it and updating yet another index. It seems like the people who run this site have something against the show personally. I don’t get it. There’s a lot of other shows doing poorly in the ratings as well. Pick on them for a change and give Melrose Place a chance to grow / change.
thank you Robert!!!! i love this show and i know that it will somehow make a turn around!!!!!!
Sid, why can’t a week go by? Because I do a Renew/Cancel post for each network exactly once a week!
And since Melrose Place is the only CW show (on the air now) that’s likely to get canceled, it gets “picked on”.
All those other shows, on other networks, doing poorly get “picked on” too, but since you don’t like them, you don’t notice.
Hi. I’m Brazilian ^^
And… i dont speak english very wel… so…
Supernatural is the best, here in brazil, many channel’s about tv, pass these series, and the people love, like me
Please, don’t cancel this serie *-*
We of Brazil, love!
excuse, I not also cannot write very well in English, but I like very much of English xD
karen,
We of the USA love Brazilians and all the jungle dwellers of this planet! Thank God TV reaches even the most remote areas.
My guess is Smallville will get a 10th season in the same slot, which is good for The CW for fridays. My guess is 2010-2011 may be the final season for both Smallville and One Tree Hill. As for Melrose Place, the series is dead. If CW really wants to save it they may air either Fly Girls or Blonde Charity Mafia in the slot around March so Melrose can continue repeat free April-May. Anyway the show is done, but that might mean better news for Life UnXpected if it performs well.
A big ratings boost would be to have the CW turn back into the WB it yields a lot more respect then th CW.
As a fan of the original… I’m impressed with Melrose. I think it’s strong. On another network with more exposure and a larger audience I think it would do well. Also– the execs at CW made a mistake adding Heather Locklear to the show, and the very next week running a repeat. They should have built on the momentum, however small it was.