Early Tuesday Results Indicate Split Decision for Leno and Letterman

Posted on 10 March 2010 by Robert Seidman

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For the first time since Jay Leon returned to 11:30, The Tonight Show trailed Late Show in the early metered market numbers (3.5 rating for Letterman versus 3.2 for Leno).  In the 25 markets with local People Meters Leno held a slim edge with adults 18-49, but he did yesterday as well and when the numbers for the broader national market were factored in,  Late Show wound up leading Tonight Show in the 18-49 demo, too.

Today’s rallying cries will range from “See, I knew it!” to “Of course Letterman won, his extortionist was just sentenced to six months of jail time.”

More details.

  • “The Tonight Show with Jay Leno” (3.2/8 in metered-market households) trailed CBS’s “Late Show with David Letterman” (3.5/9) while topping ABC’s “Nightline (2.7/) and “Jimmy Kimmel Live” (1.3/4) in Nielsen’s 56 metered markets.
  • In the 25 markets with Local People Meters, “The Tonight Show with Jay Leno” (1.1/5) ranked #1 among the major networks in the time period over “Late Show” (1.0/5), “Nightline” (1.1/4) and “Jimmy Kimmel Live” (0.9/4).
  • At 12:35 a.m., “Late Night with Jimmy Fallon” (1.4/5 in metered-market households) trailed CBS’s “Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson” (1.6/6).  In the 25 markets with Local People Meters, “Late Night” (0.6/4 in 18-49) tied “Late Late Show” (0.6/4).

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  • grr_argh

    bahahahahaha. it’s starting.

  • Andrew

    NBC is so dumb, it isn’t even funny.

  • Minow

    With Halderman’s guilty plea yesterday it’s no surprise that Letterman’s ratings improved as folks tuned in just to see what Dave had to say.

  • KO

    Wow, a whole week of ratings dominance! This whole mess was totally worth it!

    NBC is so short-sighted it’s ridiculous.

  • Christos

    Blah blah blah….it’s going to go back and forth…personally I watch both…depends which guest is on…period…leno wins or Dave wins…I still get the same pay from work…it’s not like I get a percentage from any of them….get a life people…

  • NP

    So after the whole Conan/Leno fiasco…NBC gets the same rating in the demo for Leno as they were getting with Conan…when Conan was at his lowest point.

  • KO

    You cared enough to join in, Christos. Heck, you typed more than anyone else did before you. So who really needs to get a life? :)

  • Rob C

    Whether you are a fan of Leno or CoCo – you have to agree on one thing: NBC used to rule the late night and they screwed it up badly.

    Looking at these numbers and the later numbers for Fallon versus Ferguson, it really emphasizes the point that you shouldn’t screw with something that’s working.

    NBC execs must be longing for the stable and winning days of Leno @ 11:35 , O’Brien @ 12:35. Now they have to work overtime to spin numbers during both time periods.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @ Rob C, “Whether you are a fan of Leno or CoCo – you have to agree on one thing: NBC used to rule the late night and they screwed it up badly.”

    Definitely.

  • grr_argh

    hey, christos, you do realize you’re on a site about tv ratings, right?

  • Katie

    Fallon is a total dud. I really don’t get the appeal at all. Give it up Lorne Michaels.

    Don’t feel a bit sorry for NBC but who knows. It could settle somewhere down the road with Leno once again number 1 but folks need to remember. Leno’s demos were falling long before he left TTS and the margin already closing with Letterman so is this really a shock?

  • saxamoophone

    Hey Rob or Bill,

    Any Chance we can get some plots of Conan vs. Leno in the coming weeks?

    Leno is about at Conan levels already right?

  • Jay

    Well, NBC’s 10 o’clock shows still suck. They’re going down to “The Jay Leno Show” levels. Honestly, I wish Jay would have had a 30 min. show 11:30 and Conan at 12. Then when Jays contract was up let him go. Then Conan back to 10:30. But last week Leno had much better lead-ins.

    If Conan does a show at 11 on FOX it will fail. No lead-ins from affiliates shows.

    CBS is the place to because there 10 o’clock shows are doing great. I just wish Letterman didn’t tell jokes my grandpa tells me. Please let Ferguson take over.

    How I miss the days of Leno and Conan.

  • Christos

    Ouch….i must have touched a nerve with afew of you guys…I’ll let you guys battle it out…I’ll just get back to my LIFE… :) )))

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    saxamoophone, I may well do some Leno vs. Conan charts, but only of weekly ratings. I didn’t keep track of Conan’s daily ratings.

  • http://www.deltaphotography.net Michael J

    See, I knew it!

    Of course Letterman won, his extortionist was just sentenced to six months of jail time.

    With regards to Rob. :P

  • Craig

    Doesn’t depend on the guest too. Dave the horn dog bad publicity helps he’ll be milking it all week. I can’t talk shows in general.

  • Andrew

    actually fox news is consistently the highest rated nightly news programs in 18-49, which would be conan’s key demo. Espescially during Idol season, I doubt he would have much trouble doing better than simpsons reruns.

  • Will

    “So after the whole Conan/Leno fiasco…NBC gets the same rating in the demo for Leno as they were getting with Conan…when Conan was at his lowest point.”

    Um, no. Leno has a long way to go before he reaches Conan’s lowest TONIGHT SHOW numbers (2.5 million).

  • Andrew

    “Um, no. Leno has a long way to go before he reaches Conan’s lowest TONIGHT SHOW numbers (2.5 million).”

    He said in the 18-49 Demo, which is the only thing advertisers, and therefore networks, care about anyway.

  • BrianM

    @Andrew 9:42 — Fox News Channel and the Fox entertainment network are different entities, so good ratings on FNC wouldn’t help Conan. In the market where I live, the local news ratings at 9 (I’m in the Central time zone) on the Fox affiliate are pretty good, but the second hour of local news at 10 rates poorly, and that’s the newscast that would feed into Conan.

  • MK

    This appears to be the beginning of the end for NBC.

    NBC no longer has shows that used to destroy other networks in the ratings. They only have “Chuck” which produces decent ratings.

    And now NBC decided after Conan couldn’t cut it in Late Night after 7 months brings back Jay, who also couldn’t cut it in Prime Time to see if NBC can bounce back to the biggest faux pas in TV history.

    Zucker’s not looking very good right now.

  • Holly

    Jay will be fine. He’ll eventually settle at #1 again and keep most or all of his former audience.

    Jay will win because he’s got the funniest monologue in late night. That is why Carson hired Leno and it’s why Leno has been #1 for 15 years.

    Letterman, on the other hand, is boring and dull and puts you to sleep!!

  • Jim

    Holly, Holly, Holly. If Carson had such a woodie for Leno, why does everyone who knew Carson assert that Johnny wanted Dave to take over The Tonight Show? Leno was a decent guest host. Johnny realized that Dave was more talented. Try and think of the memorable moments of Leno’ Tonight Show over those 15 years. Other than Hugh Grant, which Leno just lucked into, and the Dancing Itos, which was funny the first few times but quickly became stupid, can you or anyone else recall truly memorable shows that Leno has put on? You may not like Dave because he is a left-winger, or cheated on his significant other, but you can’t call him dull.

  • SB

    Sigh. Just to clarify again, Holly, The Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson hired many guest hosts, including Jay Leno AND David Letterman. Letterman was given the Late Night show, produced by Carson Productions. By all reports, Jay tried to force Johnny out of TTS before he wanted to leave, and Johnny supported Dave to be his successor on the show. After retirement, Johnny appeared on Dave’s show and submitted jokes to use for his monologue, and never did the same for Jay. Lastly, Jay performed the ultimate sin by not acknowledging Johnny on his first broadcast.

    You can like Leno and hate Letterman, but the idea that Jay was “Johnny’s guy” is, frankly, silly.

  • Katie

    @Holly I believe Leno will probably end up at #1 again but it’s not going to be the margin he had. People seem to forget his ratings before he left went from 2.0 to 1.8 to 1.4 his last season as host. And Letterman’s ratings were not dropping proportionately I don’t believe in fact the margin between letterman and Leno was narrowing considerably.

    Regardless of what happened with leno and conan, NBC’s dominance in late night was dwindling. Even Nightline has been making inroads again over the past couple of years. NBC is not the dominant player it was with Carson/Letterman, Leno/O’Brien anymore. In fact Fergusen at 12:35 is pretty handily beating Fallon on a regular basis.

  • Cowboy

    Everything should be back to normal tonight with King Leno being back on top.

  • Jeff

    Hahaha, Suck it Chin!

  • Sara

    “For the first time since Jay Leon returned to 11:30…”

    Tell me more about this Leon fella. Is he funny? ;)

  • Holly

    SB, you are wrong. I’ve got some Carson TS on VHS and Leno was the ONLY guest host. He hosted every Thursday night.

    Jim, you’ve got to remember that MANY comedians wanted to guest host on the TS but Leno got the job since he was the funniest and it’s why he’s beaten Letterman for 15 years for pete’s sake!!

    If that doesn’t tell you that Leno is #1 then you’re in denial!

  • Pat

    How can anyone say Leno is the king of late night? We’re only 7 days past the Olympics and all that enormous promotion for Leno’s Tonight Show, and he’s already losing to Letterman, two nights in a row.

    I’m starting to think only dumb people like Jay.

    Let there be no mistake – a large number of viewers are avoiding Jay because of Conan thing.

  • Sara

    Holly, Leno didn’t become the permanent guest host until 1987. Before then the spot was previously held by Joan Rivers until their falling out. And the guest host spot was Monday, not Thursday.

  • Ferdinand

    Conan’s numbers on Twitter are leveling off.

  • kimberlycart

    Can someone explain to me why a “lead-in” should matter? We all have remote controls now. I can see a 70-year-old sticking with the same channel all night out of simple inertia, but wouldn’t the overwhelming majority of people under 50 have enough gumption to change the channel? I’m not trying to be dense here; I just don’t understand why a show on at 10pm would effect a show at 11:30PM.

  • shma

    SB: Just to clarify again, Holly, The Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson hired many guest hosts, including Jay Leno AND David Letterman

    Holly: SB, you are wrong. I’ve got some Carson TS on VHS and Leno was the ONLY guest host. He hosted every Thursday night.

    You’re a pretty bad liar, Holly.

    Here’s Garry Shandling guest hosting
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNaXZWuiBWk

    IMDB lists Letterman as a guest host twice
    http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0001468/filmoseries#tt0055708

    # Episode dated 4 December 1979 (4 December 1979) – Himself – Guest Host

    # Episode dated 4 December 1980 (4 December 1980) – Himself – Guest Host

  • Holly

    Shma, I wasn’t lying. I just phrased it wrong. Leno was the only PERMANENT guest host of the TS.

    He did it for 4 years! That’s FAR longer than anyone else and any other comedian would’ve killed to get that job but Leno got it since his monologue blows everyone else away! It’s why he’s number 1 for 15 years!

  • DJ

    Wasn’t Joan Rivers a “permanent” guest host until she torqued Carson off and started her Fox show? I always thought it likely if that would not have happened, Joan might have inherited “Tonight.”

  • shma

    Yes, DJ, she was. She guest-hosted from 1981 to 1986.

    http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0001672/filmoseries#tt0055708

  • Marie

    Leno was the Guest Host because Letterman all ready had a steady gig with the show that followed the Tonight Show. How can he be in NY and LA on the same day? It’s common knowledge that Johnny wanted Dave.

  • David

    Guys, highest ratings =/= funniest. Some people get larger audiences because their comedy has a wider appeal, not because it is better. Not many people can appreciate Triumph the Insult Comic Dog, but most people can laugh at people on the street who don’t know Joe Biden.

  • SB

    Holly, as it has been proved by many other posters on this thread, you really need to bone up on your Tonight Show history. Yes, Leno was the LAST permanent guest host, but he certainly wasn’t the only one. Joan Rivers was the PGH before she created her own rival talk show on Fox, and Garry Shandling was on so often he was offered the PGH position, but turned it down because he was already doing “It’s Garry Shandling’s Show” for Showtime.

    Of course, there were dozens of other guest hosts, everyone from Bill Cosby and David Brenner to Kermit the Frog.

    But all of this is getting away from the fallacy of your point, which was that Jay was somehow connected to Johnny. He wasn’t. Johnny wanted Dave to get TTS, he was pissed that NBC didn’t take his advice, and never appeared on Jay’s show, but appeared on and wrote jokes for Dave’s.

  • Ralph Snyder

    I like Jay Leno best

  • Lakawak

    I love all the chukdren here who think that they know more about hwi run a network based on the show THEY like. Guess what all of you…you are NOT superior to ANYONE, in ANY aspect of life. Not in any way. If you ran NBC and kept Conan on despite hte TERRIBLE ratings, then you would be out of a job in a heartbeat. The bottom line…People were not watching Conan. They stopped watching LONG before Leno came on and lowered the 10:00 ratings. Conan was not NEARLY as funny as he was in New York.

    99% of people whining like little worthless bitches about his never watched Conan before the news that he was getting replaced. You can tell by their complete ignorance of his past.

    Conan will come in FOURTH place if he goes on Fox in the fall. Behing Leno, then Letterman and/or Nightline,

  • billyot

    shut up lakawak you dont even know what are you talking about

  • Jon

    Because you're old and lack a sense of humor.

  • Jimmy

    Who's Jay Leon??

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Justin-Le-Donne/100000003021398 Justin Le Donne

    I rather have Letterman win.

  • Ralph Snyder

    I like Jay Leno best

  • Jon

    Because you're old and lack a sense of humor.

  • Jimmy

    Who's Jay Leon??

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Justin-Le-Donne/100000003021398 Justin Le Donne

    I rather have Letterman win.

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