Eight weeks into the disappearance of Conan’s Tonight Show adults 18-49 lead over Letterman’s Late Show and the two shows are still neck and neck in the 18-49 demo. Since late September/ early October, the shows have had exactly the same overall average (1.0) for adults 18-49 ratings.

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BURN NOTICE -- Pictured: (l-r) Sharon Gless as Madeline, Bruce Campbell as Sam, Jeffrey Donovan as Michael Westen, Gabrielle Anwar as Fiona -- USA Network Photo: Glenn Watson

The Futon Critic reports that USA Network’s Burn Notice will return with the second half of its third season on Thursday January 28, 2010 at 9pm and that it will be paired with the second half of the freshman season of White Collar, which will air at 10pm.  White Collar finishes its first half-season on December 4.

Psych is expected to return on Friday January 29 at 10pm with the second half of its fourth season.

Update: The Futon Critic has added the following to its original post:

[UPDATE: A spokesperson for USA has subsequently indicated that its January dates have not been decided. The aforementioned information however is deemed accurate at this time by internal sources.]

This puts the report that Dobbs walked away from $9 million in question.

CNN was so sick of Lou Dobbs, it gave him an $8 million severance package to leave, The Post has learned.

“They wanted him out,” according to a source.

via NY Post.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 8, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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For most broadcast shows, exile to Friday means your network thinks the show is past its time, and should peacefully fade away without damaging the ratings of shows on Sunday-Thursday. That’s likely the idea that the CW had when it put Smallville on Fridays this season. But defying conventional wisdom (and to many fans, the wishes of CW chief Dawn Ostroff), not only has Smallville refused to go quietly, it was tied for second best adults 18-49 rating on the CW last week. I know that the CW targets women 18-34, but be certain they sell advertising based on whatever attractive demo ratings they get. Those results cannot be ignored.

With Melrose Place the only show currently in the CW lineup certain to be canceled, fans await the return of Heather Locklear as potential salvation. Dream on.

I realize that with an Index of 0.82 Gossip Girl 90210 wouldn’t be “green” for any other network, but its women’s 18-34 ratings are above average for the CW (unfortunately we don’t get the same level of data for that demo for me to be able to easily use it). That, plus the fact that show’s the televised embodiment of everything Dawn Ostroff has staked her network on, guarantees it will be around as long as Dawn is.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

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In a good recap of the current situation at NBC (worth reading, but nothing particularly new), Mark Harris in New York Magazine wonders:

If creaky old NCIS can draw 20 million viewers, imagine what the combination of money, creativity, smart casting, production values, and an innovative broadcast-network programmer could do.

Huh?

Presumably every television network (arguably, even NBC) is using its best combination of all those elements, and for the most part they haven’t been able to touch NCIS‘ ratings.

Is Harris “imagining” a broadcast renaissance that’s being held back if someone would just make the right decisions? Or does he just figure all existing broadcast programmers are clueless?

I “imagine” that given the best of all those elements, an innovative broadcast-network programmer would be overjoyed to achieve NCIS’ current ratings.

CNN’s fourth place primetime finish during Tuesday’s off year election could perhaps be explained away because “nobody cared about it, but the Ft. Hood murders yesterday were the kind of big event that would typically send casual news viewers flocking to CNN. However, as the Ft. Hood news was unfolding, CNN found itself in a distant second place in the ratings.

Here’s a 3pm-12am time period slice of the data we don’t normally see:

3PM-12AM
FNC: 3,039,000 in P2+ (837,000 in 25-54)
CNN: 1,576,000 in P2+ (471,000 in 25-54)
MSNBC: 820,000 in P2+ (248,000 in 25-54)
HLN: 428,000 in P2+ (177,000 in 25-54)

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Fastest syndication EVER?

After only seven weeks on the air, syndication rights for NCIS: LA have been bought by USA Network, which has already had a great syndication run with the original NCIS.

According to the Hollywood Reporter,  NCIS: LL Cool J LA is going for roughly $1.9 2.5 million per episode THR updated the story from their original report of 1.9 million).

The unusually quick deal is testament to the popularity of the “NCIS” brand — and the ability for top cable networks to capitalize on crime procedurals in syndication. In its seventh season, “NCIS” has grown to become the most-watched drama series on TV.

Update: Not quite as fast, but The Mentalist has been sold into syndication as well.

Live + Same Day Cable News Daily Ratings for November 3, 2009

P2+ Total Day
FNC – 1,672,000 viewers
CNN – 515,000 viewers
MSNBC –401,000 viewers
CNBC – 178,000 viewers
HLN –394,000 viewers

P2+ Prime Time
FNC – 4,043,000 viewers
CNN – 826,000 viewers
MSNBC –974,000 viewers
CNBC – a scratch w/99,000 viewers
HLN –842,000 viewers

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