The media mogul Oprah Winfrey will end her iconic daytime talk show, “The Oprah Winfrey Show,” in 2011 as she prepares to start a cable channel of her own.

via NYTimes.com.

This had been widely rumored, and perhaps even expected, but the NY Times doesn’t mention specifically that she is moving her show to her new cable network (OWN), the possibility being it might be done for good. However as Robert points out in the comments, that makes no sense.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 15, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Who was the guy who wrote “Law & Order: Twenty And Done“? Oh yeah, me.

In my defense, the show’s ratings on Friday began terribly. Here are the adults 18-49 ratings for the episodes this season (1.2, 1.2, 1.5, 1.6, 1.5, 1.4, 1.7, 1.6). It’s almost as if the fans couldn’t find the show during its first two weeks. A show increasing its ratings by 25+% over a short period like that rarely happens.

If Law & Order can hold a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating on Friday (maybe even a 1.6 rating) it’s back on NBC next season. With a 1.7 rating and assuming that NBC’s overall average falls after football to a 2.5, that would produce an Index of 0.68. CBS renews its Friday dramas with those relative ratings, I figure NBC will too.

Trauma is canceled now, no new episodes will be ordered. Mercy’s ratings make it effectively as canceled at the end of the season. It has a 22 episode order, but it has done no better than Trauma. No chance it comes back next season.

The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

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Tuesday night’s Sons of Anarchy tied The Jay Leno Show with a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating and beat ABC’s the forgotten (1.8).   Tuesdays are Jay Leno’s best ratings  of the week, too (so yeah, SOA’s 18-49 numbers beat the Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday airings of The Jay Leno Show).

I know everyone is enamored with those kinds of comparisons, but  I want people to watch SOA because it is a great show. Next year SOA might do even bigger numbers as people watch the season one and season two DVDs between seasons and get hooked.  Season one was really good, but the second season has been tremendous with great episodes piled on top of great episodes.  Only two episodes to go in season two (the finale will be another 90 minute episode).

Here are some Tuesday cable highlights (looks like “The Prisoner” leveled off at ~950K for the finale – about the same as it did Monday night) via “Travis Yanan“:

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According to James Hibberd/AP,  Oprah Winfrey’s interview with former vp candidate Sarah Palin on Monday garnered The Oprah Winfrey show its best ratings since a 2007 airing when Oprah had the entire Osmond family on the show. Monday’s “The Oprah Winfrey Show” with Palin drew a 8.7 household rating and 13 share.

Update: I favor Julia’s theory in the comments below that this move is really about keeping Cold Case in primetime on a night where CBS anticipates some schedule delays due to overrun from having the national broadcast of the late afternoon NFL game on Sunday.

James Hibberd reports that CBS will be doing an experiment next Sunday moving Cold Case to 9pm and Three Rivers to 10pm to see if it improves either or both shows’ ratings.

Hibberd also reports that CBS is still considering both ordering new scripts for Three Rivers, as well as  ordering new episodes (5) and could be waiting to see the finals from Sunday before making a decision after Three Rivers hit season highs in the preliminary numbers.

Clearly CBS is attempting to learn something. But whether it is that Cold Case’s ratings are or are not due to the Three Rivers lead-in or merely finding out whether Cold Case fares better against Desperate Housewives than Three Rivers, potentially improving both, or whether CBS just wants to be able to say “hey, see, we tried Three Rivers when it wasn’t against Desperate Housewives so don’t say we didn’t try…” (update: Desperate Housewives isn’t even on next week. ABC will be airing the “American Music Awards”).

FOX is giving Fringe the low-budget promo treatment by way of “viral” marketing, that Variety has dubbed, a major marketing push.    The Variety story notes that there’s both an off-air and on-air push, but the on-air push seems to be this week’s show itself, plus inserting subliminal images of the observer in its Thursday night programming this week.

According to the Variety article Fox marketing chief Joe Earley is hoping a few more viewers will watch live, or at least within 3 days.

FOX will also be sending people dressed up as the observer out into the streets in a few cities (L.A., NY, Boston, Chicago, and Atlanta) who will be handing out Tabasco sauce (the Fringe faithful know that the Observers love them some spicy food).

Our experience has been these type of stunts don’t translate to ratings.  We’ll find out Friday morning.

This Thursday is final Thursday of the November sweeps period.

It appears that Fox doesn’t think its “patience” with Dollhouse is going to save it from fan blowback.

And last week, Fox chucked Joss Whedon’s Dollhouse on the scrap heap. Though the network has promised to air all 13 of the show’s commissioned episodes, loyal Dollhouse fans aren’t likely to go gently into that good night. “I’ll still get hate mail and death threats,” says Preston Beckman, executive VP of strategic program planning at Fox.

via Broadcasting & Cable

And in a bit of Dollhouse blowback imagining, Ben Grossman of Broadcasting & Cable has some “What They Said, What They Wanted To Say” :

What They Said: “Dollhouse got cancelled. F-ck you, Fox. F-ck you so hard—YET AGAIN for doing this to Joss and all of us!!!”—One of America’s great thinkers (and the show’s dozens of devoted fans), on Twitter.

What They Wanted to Say: “Hey ma! Can we get some meatloaf? The meatloaf! We want it now! The meatloaf! F-ck!”

via Broadcasting & Cable.

Though the Lost info foils my personal wannabe network scheduler schedule where I slot Lost on Thursdays at 8pm, it definitely makes more sense to me that Ugly Betty would stay on Fridays. AfterElton reported it had confirmation that Ugly Betty would move to Wednesdays a couple of days ago, nobody else has reported that from confirmed sources. Ausiello’s post was from last night:

Question: What’s the latest word on Ugly Betty moving to Wednesdays? —Alec

Ausiello: All signs point to… it not happening. ABC insiders tell me Betty is staying put on Fridays for now. The most likely candidate to inherit Eastwick’s Wednesdays at 10 p.m. timeslot early next year is Lost. Speaking of Betty, is it just me or is the show kind of on fire right now? Every episode this season has been a winner. I’m even staying awake during the Daniel scenes!

via Ausiello Files (note there are a spoilers in the post from other questions)