How long will FOX tolerate the middling ratings for Fringe?
Barring a decision by FOX to move Fringe to a better time slot, or some statement from FOX along the lines of “We love this show, we love JJ Abrams, and we don’t care how bad the ratings are we will air this show forever,” I wouldn’t plan on it being back for a third season.
I know, we’ll hear a lot of “wait for the DVR numbers”, “New Moon opened last night!” and “It will be back to a 2.2 next week, just wait and see…”
Hear me, Fringe fans: root for a better time slot anyway!
Lots of “ratings were down because of new moon” comments in our Thursday ratings post. And while reports are that the movie will be doing very well at the box office, there were nearly as many people watching television in the main adult demo groups last night as there were last Thursday.
Thursday 11/19 vs. Thursday 11/12 primetime averages (8-11pm)
Adults 18-34: 32.6% watching TV vs. 34.3% (down 1.7%)
Adults 18-49: 36.5% watching TV vs. 37.9% (down 1.4%)
More likely the decline in broadcast network viewing was due to some viewers being siphoned off by the NFL Network’s Dolphins/Panthers game. Last Thursday’s game drew about 4 million average viewers. No word yet on last night’s game ratings, but they are likely to be somewhat similar.
Almost every show on broadcast television was down last night vs. last week, FlashForward continued its ratings slide, Grey’s Anatomy tied a series low rating and even CW darling Vampire Diaries had a down night, as CBS edged ABC for the night’s overall adults 18-49 ratings win.
Chuck returns to NBC with a special two hour airing on Sunday January 10, 2010 from 9p-11p before returning to its regular time slot, Mondays at 8pm on the following night.
As expected Heroes will shift back to 9pm following a two hour block between 8p-10p on January 4.
Chuck Returns (Video Message from Zach + A Clip from Season 3)
LOST will return Tuesdays at 9pm starting February 2, 2010. I’m not sure yet what this means for the 8pm and 10pm schedule (though the betting seems to be on V taking the Tuesday 10pm slot after the Olympics) or what will happen once Dancing With the Stars returns in March, but sooner or later (hopefully sooner) ABC will reveal its mid-season plans and we’ll update you.
The Groundhog Day return will feature 3 hours of Lost- a one hour recap plus a two hour premiere.
CBS won the night both with adults 18-49 and overall viewers on the backs of Criminal Minds and CSI: NY.
FOX edged out ABC for second with adults 18-49 and FOX won the night outright with adults 18-34 by a wide margin with its lineup of So You Think You Can Dance and Glee. Glee was the night’s highest-rated program of the night with adults 18-34 and teens.
Modern Family and Cougar Town were both up from the ratings-notched November 4th when Cougar Town hit a series low with adults 18-49 (CMA Awards aired last week) and were the night’s most-watched comedies.
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 15, 2009):
Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
Program
Renew/ Cancel Index
Til Death (S), (F)
0.20
Brothers (F)
0.24
Dollhouse (F), (P)
0.25
Fringe
0.58
Bones (P)
0.75
Lie To Me (P)
0.77
Glee (P)
0.89
American Dad (P)
0.91
The Cleveland Show (P)
1.10
The Simpsons (P)
1.12
Family Guy (P)
1.23
House
1.48
- Note that the Index values for all Fox shows will continue to be very depressed for some time because the World Series ratings have unusually boosted Fox’s overall 18-49 average (3.7 vs. ~3.o before baseball). That will slowly subside as Fox’s average evens out post-baseball. For the time being, the order of the shows is far more important than the Index values.
Dollhouse has been officially canceled. The only difference between it, ‘Til Death and Brothers is there has been no announcements about them. There may never be. They’ll continue to air episodes for some unknown period of time and then vanish.
With those 3 shows out of the way, Fringe is the only remaining scripted show in Fox’s lineup in some danger of cancellation. Could Fox renew it based on the fact it knew it was going to get crushed at 9pm Thursdays? Yes. But they also could decide they could do better in that time slot. It’s an interesting situation because I’m not sure how much new useful ratings information about Fringe’s situation we’ll get before the end of the year when decisions are made, short of an unlikely big change upwards or downwards in the ratings.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 15, 2009):
Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
Program
Renew/ Cancel Index
Numb3rs (F), (P)
0.54
Three Rivers (P)
0.55
Cold Case (P)
0.60
New Adventures of Old Christine (S)
0.62
Medium (F), (P)
0.62
Ghost Whisperer (F), (S)
0.63
Gary Unmarried
0.67
The Good Wife (P)
0.86
Accidentally On Purpose (P)
0.92
CSI:NY (P)
0.98
How I Met Your Mother (S)
1.06
The Mentalist
1.09
CSI (P)
1.11
Criminal Minds (P)
1.12
NCIS: Los Angeles (P)
1.13
CSI: Miami (P)
1.21
NCIS (P)
1.37
Two And A Half Men
1.40
Big Bang Theory
1.49
-
With a Renew / Cancel Index of 0.92, Accidentally On Purpose would seem to be in pretty good shape for renewal for next season, but it has a sweet timeslot (following How I Met Your Mother) and I think it’s very likely that CBS expected it to do a lot better. I think Accidentally On Purpose could be canceled at the end of the season and become this year’s Worst Week. Last season, Worst Week had an even better timeslot (following Two And A Half Men @ 9:30), but it was canceled with an above average Index of 1.01.
Both Three Rivers and Cold Case will be canceled by the end of this season. Their timeslots are being switched, likely to try and make the best of the late Sunday ratings mess at CBS, but ignore the nonsense about CBS possibly ordering more episodes of Three Rivers. That’s typical of the ridiculous internet chatter that pops up during a show’s slide into oblivion.
The Good Wife seems to have stabilized at about a 2.8 adults 18-49 rating. On NBC, it would be a star, on CBS that’s borderline. Fans can anticipate sleepless nights until next season’s schedule is announced.
New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried ratings remain horrid, they were last season too. If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be renewed for yet another season.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
