Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 15, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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The last two episodes of FlashForward have each managed just a 2.6 rating for adults 18-49 (vs. ABC’s overall season average of a 3.1 rating), so that while FlashForward’s season average Index has it comfortably above the renewal line, its latest ratings now place its future very much in doubt.

the forgotten, got beat again by The Jay Leno Show last night. And while I have written this many times already, stick a fork in it, it’s done.

Eastwick and Hank have both been officially canceled, but since they may continue to air for an unknown number of episodes, I will not freeze their Indexes yet.

Fans of both Castle and The Middle can rest easy for now (although I don’t expect them to), their shows will air all the way through the 22 episodes ordered this season. However, their returns for 2010-2011 are very much in doubt. The relative success of new ABC shows this spring may determine their fates.

Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It’s ratings are dreadful. There is some entertainment press chatter that Ugly Betty may move to Wednesday’s at 10 in January to try and “save” the show. It may very well move, but short of ABC wanting to produce more episodes for syndication (a longshot) there is no “saving” it.

How could some shows that didn’t even air last week have their Indexes fall? ABC’s season average increased last week (raising the bar), so all shows that didn’t increase their averages saw their *relative* Indexes fall.

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

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Scoreboard
Rating: Adults 18-49	3.4/9	3.0/8	2.7/7	2.4/7	1.5/4	0.9/3
Rating: Adults 18-34	2.3/7	2.3/7	1.9/6	2.5/7	1.7/5	1.3/4
Total Viewers (million)	15.926	8.284	10.932	5.984	3.840	1.838

The return of Heather Locklear gave a bump to Melrose Place’s ratings. It had only the slightest increase to a 0.8 rating for adults 18-49 (vs. a 0.7 last week), but did better among youth increasing to a 1.1 rating for adults 18-34 (vs. a 0.8 last week) and a 1.6 rating for women 18-34 (vs. a 1.2 last week) . That’s slightly better than I expected in the women’s 18-34 demos, but less in the other two categories. Those numbers, which are unlikely to be maintained, are not going to save the show. ABC’s V ratings continued to fall, to a 3.1 adults 18-49 rating, down 16% from last week.

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Scoreboard
Adults 18-49: Rating/Share	4.0/10	4.0/10	3.4/9	1.8/5	1.5/4	1.2/3
Adults 18-34: Rating/Share	3.9/11	3.2/9	2.3/7	1.5/4	1.6/4	1.5/4
Total Viewers (million)	10.38	11.79	16.11	4.90	3.95	2.43

The fast national data for Monday is in (these are the preliminary fast national numbers, and are not the final numbers).  In the interest of time/data backlog, I’ll spare you the analysis and let you get right to the numbers.

Here are last Monday’s preliminary numbers for comparison.

Full details:

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With almost all Fox shows pre-empted by baseball, Gossip Girl, Smallville and FlashForward all increased their adults 18-49 Live+SD ratings by 33% in their Live+7 ratings which measure DVR viewing through seven days after airdate for the week of October 26 – November 1, 2009. As is typical, the highest rated shows overall had the greatest absolute ratings increases, as Grey’s Anatomy gained 1.4 adults 18-49 ratings points between its Live+SD and Live+7 periods.

Interestingly, with Fox shows off the schedule, the range of relative increases among the top 25 shows was quite narrow, from 19% for #25 Law & Order to the 33% for the top 3.

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Due to the nature of live sports programming the ratings for NBC (Sunday Night Football) and Fox (NFL Overrun) (and possibly a CBS NFL overrun in some markets) are approximate and subject to significant revisions in the final numbers. See below for more information on these Fast Affiliate Ratings.

Scoreboard
Adults 18-49: Rating/Share	6.0/15	4.6/12	3.5/9	2.3/6	0.8/2
Adults 18-34: Rating/Share	5.3/15	4.9/14	2.7/8	1.5/4	1.8/2
Total Viewers (million)	16.145	10.890	11.146	10.398	2.186

NBC didn’t need to go for it on 4th down, as the Patriots/Colts Sunday Night Football matchup easily got them the nightly ratings win. Boosted by a football overrun, Fox was a strong second place.

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NBC’s Trauma is dead, but Mercy continues to survive, at least for now. Is there any hope Mercy might not be canceled and instead be renewed for fall 2010?

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Scoreboard
Rating/Share: Adults 18-49	1.9/6	1.5/5	1.5.5	1.1/4	0.9/3
Total Viewers (million)	8.11	6.51	5.41	3.75	2.02

More or less your typical Friday, with CBS taking the night overall with adults 18-49 and with overall viewers.  Ghost Whisperer was the night’s highest-rated program with a 2.0 adults 18-49 rating.

Meanwhile Smallville fans will delight that Smallville hit a season high in viewers (2.7 million) and matched its season highs with adults 18-34 (1.2/5) and adults 18-49 (1.2/5).  Smallville ranked #1 in the hour in men 18-34 (1.3/6) and men 18-49 (1.3/5-tie) and ranked second in adults 18-34. And for those who just can’t stand not knowing, Smallville pulled a 1.0/4 with women 18-34.

Ugly Betty was on par with last week with adults 18-49, though down slightly with viewers.

Meanwhile over on FOX,  a Bones rerun once again outperformed  the most recent airing of an original Dollhouse at 9pm by 50 percent (1.2 vs. .8).

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While it’s certainly a possibility that both shows will be renewed, the question at hand is which show is more likely to be renewed?  I could be cowardly and push and say that they are equally likely.  But if I have to pick one, it’s “Heroes,” and not exclusively just because the relative rankings (and color coding) in the Renew/Cancel Index.

Crazy tinfoil hat wearing “Fringe”  fanboys who want to call me a hater please note, I am still watching “Fringe!”  I am not still watching “Heroes!”  But the question isn’t “which show am I more likely to watch?”

Heroes

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