Short term (4 week) ratings trends indicate the renewal prospects for Castle, The Good Wife, Heroes, Parks & Recreation and Law & Order have improved.

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 15, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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The return of the appropriately aged (a year younger than yours truly) Heather Locklear gave Melrose Place a small ratings boost, but not nearly enough to give any hope to those who thought she might save the show. She only lifted the shows ratings to the level they held in early October. I thought the show was dead then, and ratings will likely to trail off from last night’s levels. That’s too little, too late.

Note that Smallville, Gossip Girl and One Tree Hill have yet to air a repeat, while all other CW scripted shows have. Right now that puts them temporarily on the up side of the see-saw and the others on the down side, but things should even out once every show has a similar number of repeats into their averages which will happen in the next month or so. At the moment 90210, Melrose Place, Supernatural and Vampire Diaries are a bit lower in the Index than they should be for that reason.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 8, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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For most broadcast shows, exile to Friday means your network thinks the show is past its time, and should peacefully fade away without damaging the ratings of shows on Sunday-Thursday. That’s likely the idea that the CW had when it put Smallville on Fridays this season. But defying conventional wisdom (and to many fans, the wishes of CW chief Dawn Ostroff), not only has Smallville refused to go quietly, it was tied for second best adults 18-49 rating on the CW last week. I know that the CW targets women 18-34, but be certain they sell advertising based on whatever attractive demo ratings they get. Those results cannot be ignored.

With Melrose Place the only show currently in the CW lineup certain to be canceled, fans await the return of Heather Locklear as potential salvation. Dream on.

I realize that with an Index of 0.82 Gossip Girl 90210 wouldn’t be “green” for any other network, but its women’s 18-34 ratings are above average for the CW (unfortunately we don’t get the same level of data for that demo for me to be able to easily use it). That, plus the fact that show’s the televised embodiment of everything Dawn Ostroff has staked her network on, guarantees it will be around as long as Dawn is.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 1, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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With Melrose Place the only show CW certain to be canceled, just like last season with  Privileged I’m certain that there are entertainment bloggers out there that will raise the (false) hopes of fans (and their pageviews) with ridiculous “There’s Hope For Melrose Place!” stories.

I’m not sure if those stories are driven by the CW’s PR prowess or just attempts to draw pageviews, but who do you think will be first?

My guess rhymes with “Saucy-Fellow”.

Smallville fans wary of the motives of CW Chief Dawn Ostroff should be sleeping easily. With the relatively good ratings its getting on Friday (relatively better for its network than any other Friday scripted show on any network), she’s not going to be able to cancel it. Of course, if the producers or stars don’t want to continue that’s another story.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

Note: A few CW scripted shows were in repeats last week, which depresses their Indexes vs. those that were not. In the short run, it causes some tricky comparisons, in the long run it pretty much evens out.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 25, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Smallville fans wary of the motives of CW Chief Dawn Ostroff should be sleeping easily. With the relatively good ratings its getting on Friday (relatively better for its network than any other Friday scripted show on any network), she’s not going to be able to cancel it. Of course, if the producers or stars don’t want to continue that’s another story.

The Renew / Cancel Index for CW shows is likely to look pretty much as it does now for several months, with Melrose Place the only show certain to be canceled and all the rest in good shape. That being the case, just like last season with  Privileged I’m certain that there are entertainment bloggers out there that will raise the (false) hopes of fans (and their pageviews) with ridiculous “There’s Hope For Melrose Place!” stories.

Who do you think will be first?

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 18, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Will the return of Heather Locklear to Melrose Place save the show? I highly doubt it. But she’s almost exactly a year younger than I am, and I do appreciate the employment opportunity the CW is providing to a member of my generation.

I’m confident Melrose Place will be around for all its episodes this season, just like Privileged was. I’m also confident it will be canceled at the end of this season, just like Privileged was.

Nothing else currently on The CW looks to be in danger of not coming back next season because of its ratings.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 11, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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This is going to be a tough season for Melrose Place fans. Its ratings look almost good enough to hope for renewal for the 2010-11 season. Because of that, fans are likely to be conned by “entertainment” writers (you know who they are) into a “There’s hope for Melrose Place!” frenzy. Don’t fall for it.

Remember Privileged from last season, and it’s associated fan hope hoo-ha in May? It was canceled with an Index of 0.89**. Keep that in mind as you read the TV writers that are baiting the desperate fans.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

**Although the CW’s Sunday ratings last season were so dreadful that it boosted the Index of all the CW shows to unrepresentative levels, my guess is that removing Sunday from the mix would likely have dropped Privileged’s index to about 0.8.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 4, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Now that The Beautiful Life is gone, Melrose Place is the only remaining poor performing scripted show for the CW that the network seems to want to try and save (like Privileged last season). There were lots of “Privileged isn’t dead yet!” sorts of headlines in the spring that I warned fans to ignore before it was finally cancelled. Look for the same with Melrose Place this season as the CW PR team does that voodoo that they do so well.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story