Renew / Cancel Posts Are Taking A Break, Look For the Next NBC Renew / Cancel Post On February 23.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 31, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Now that Parks & Recreation has been renewed for a third season, I don’t see how NBC can not renew Community as well. It’s got the more difficult 8pm timeslot, and its doing about 10% better in the ratings.

Heroes has had its ratings ups and downs this season, but lately, they’ve been all down. Since the new year it’s had adults 18-49 ratings of 2.2, 2.1, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0 (prelim). Even for NBC a drama with those ratings is getting canceled.

Chuck ratings continue to skate just on the good side of renewal for the show. Last night’s 2.4 rating should be a bit troubling to fans, because I’m a lot less hopeful at a consistent 2.4 than I am at a consistent 2.5.

As horrible as the situation is, I’ve got to believe NBC will try something new other than the ratings sinkholes Trauma and Mercy. Even starving post-Leno beggars have to be a little bit choosy.

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Renew / Cancel Posts Are Taking A Break, Look For the Next Fox Renew / Cancel Post On February 23.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 31, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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I give up trying to figure out how to adjust the Fox overall season average ratings for sports and American Idol. Folks will just have to refrain from comparing Fox’s list to the other networks’ lists. The order of the shows is far more important than the Index values in Fox’s case, and the “magic” 0.90 Index for renewal will not be appropriate.

Against repeat or special competition on broadcast networks, Fringe has had its best three ratings weeks this season since its premiere (2.6, 2.6, 3.0 adults 18-49 ratings). If only Fox moved it somewhere better, fans lament! But where? Sunday’s out. Monday at 9 would mean either getting rid of Lie to Me or 24. Friday’s a death zone. Putting it in the left over spot with American Idol on Tuesday or Wednesday likely means it could only be a spring show, but what then does Fox move into Thursday at 9? Tricky, very tricky.

All the schedule experiments with the two shows continue to show little practical ratings difference between Fringe and Lie To Me. Your guess is as good as mine what Fox does. At this point I don’t think I’d be terribly surprised by any combination of their renewal or cancellation (either one, both, neither).

Human Target fans should watch the ratings beginning tomorrow night (2/3) when the show starts its run in its “normal” timeslot. Those results will determine the future of the show. The past ratings as it jumped all over the schedule will mean little.

Dollhouse is officially canceled. Brothers seems to be canceled in practice, but Fox is silent. ‘Til Death continues to bounce around the Fox schedule, currently Sundays at 7pm. I’d be stunned if it was back again, but I was stunned last spring too.

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Renew / Cancel Posts Are Taking A Break, Look For the Next CW Renew / Cancel Post On February 23.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 31, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Life Unexpected’s adults 18-49 ratings for its first three episodes (1.1, 1.1, 1.0) put it solidly in the middle range of CW shows and if it can hold there it looks good for renewal. Note that Life Unexpected’s ratings average includes only new episodes, while the rest of the CW show averages contain many repeat airings.

And, if to do no more than let folks know who haven’t been paying attention, Melrose Place will certainly be canceled at the end of the season.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

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Renew / Cancel Posts Are Taking A Break, Look For the Next CBS Renew / Cancel Post On February 23.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through January 31, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Fans of  Accidentally On Purpose, Gary Unmarried, Old Christine, Medium and Numb3rs can do little more than stew for a few months (at the latest mid-May) until CBS makes up its mind on next fall’s schedule. I don’t think any of them will produce any rating results between now and then that are likely to move them off the bubble. There is only one CBS scripted drama debuting in the spring (Miami Medical), and its 10pm Friday timeslot indicates to me that CBS isn’t expecting much from the show, but it still would only effect at most one hour of shows if it gets renewed for next season.

The next interesting data points will come when:

• Accidentally On Purpose moves to Wednesday (March 31). That will give a relative read on both its and Gary Unmarried’s prospects. If it drops well below Gary’s average (2.2 rating for new episodes), it’s a goner. If it does lots better, goodbye Gary. Christine’s prospects are likely to be influenced as well.
• Miami Medical starts at 10pm on Fridays (April 2). Its results *might* provide some additional clarity on the prospects for Numb3rs and Medium.

For all the hyperventilating Medium fans, I still doubt CBS will cancel two of its Friday shows in one season, but Tassler herself seemed to keep that potential open with her recent TCA remarks, so there is at least some danger to the show.

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Renew / Cancel Posts Are Taking A Break, Look For the Next ABC Renew / Cancel Post On February 23.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through January 31, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010, Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Castle’s new episode 18-49 ratings in 2010 (2.6, 2.8, 3.0) have been so improved vs. the rest of the ABC lineup, that I’m now convinced it’s likely to be renewed for next season. I think that ABC’s going to want to take more than 5 drama hours into 2010-11, and chances for FlashForward and V are far less certain than they are for Castle.

In fact, with the announcement that Ugly Betty is canceled, even though ABC chief Steve McPherson loved it, and with The Deep End ratings underwater, ABC’s fall 2011 picture has become much clearer in the last week. The only real questions remaining are around FlashForward and V. Sadly for us, we won’t see new ratings for either of them until March.

Compare ABC’s situation with CBS, which has quite a few shows “on the bubble”, and the wrecked chaos at NBC where almost anything might happen.

The Deep End will certainly be canceled.

If FlashForward ratings don’t bounce back from its fall lows, it’s certain to be canceled.

V’s future entirely rests on how its ratings do on its return in March. Because it’s fall ratings are effectively meaningless now, I’ve colored the show orange in the table to indicate that I think anything might happen to it.

Who is Steve McPherson kidding about Scrubs and Better Off Ted? There is a very tiny possibility that Scrubs comes back just to generate more episodes for syndication. There is no such possibility for Ted.

Hank and Eastwick are already canceled, and the forgotten’s cancellation is a certainty.

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 24, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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1/29 Update: Parks & Recreation renewed for a third season. Community’s chances have improved.

Heroes has had its ratings ups and downs this season, but lately, they’ve been all down. Since the new year it’s had adults 18-49 ratings of 2.2, 2.1, 1.8 and 1.9 (prelim). It’s going to take some really super powers to get its ratings back enough to save it from being canceled, and its only got a few episodes left this season to do it.

Chuck scored another 2.5 rating last night. I think that’s just on the good side of renewal for the show. If it can keep that ratings level up, I am confident it will be back.

Since NBC’s freed up 5 more hours of primetime post-Leno, some marginal shows like Parks & Recreation and Community look a lot better for renewal.

As horrible as the situation is, I’ve got to believe NBC will try something new other than the ratings sinkholes Trauma and Mercy. Even starving post-Leno beggars have to be a little bit choosy.

For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on short term averages instead of season to date Indexes.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 24, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Life Unexpected’s premiere with a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating beat the virtual tumbleweeds of the CW’s big mid-season repeat gap, but last night it fell to a 1.0 rating (1.1 final rating). A post-premiere ratings drop is not unusual, and at that level it would still certainly be renewed, but the problems come if it keeps falling. Stay tuned.

And, if to do no more than let folks know who haven’t been paying attention, Melrose Place will certainly be canceled at the end of the season.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 24, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

-
I give up trying to figure out how to adjust the Fox overall season average ratings for sports and American Idol. Folks will just have to refrain from comparing Fox’s list to the other networks’ lists. The order of the shows is far more important than the Index values in Fox’s case, and the “magic” 0.90 Index for renewal will not be appropriate.

Fox’s newest drama, Human Target, has aired in so many dfferent timeslots (and will have yet another tonight), and its ratings have been so variable, its impossible to pin down its prospects at this point. It’s certainly done fine so far, but the real ratings test will come after February 3 when it moves to 8pm Wednesday. Until then, we’re not going to learn much that matters.

All the schedule experiments with the two shows continue to show little practical ratings difference between Fringe and Lie To Me. Your guess is as good as mine what Fox does. At this point I don’t think I’d be terribly surprised by any combination of their renewal or cancellation (either one, both, neither).

Dollhouse is officially canceled. Brothers seems to be canceled in practice, but Fox is silent. ‘Til Death continues to hang around the Fox schedule, popping up now and again. I’d be stunned if it was back again, but I was stunned last spring too.

For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.

I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.

This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story