Short term (4 week) ratings trends indicate the renewal prospects for Castle, The Good Wife, Heroes, Parks & Recreation and Law & Order have improved.

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 15, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

-

Who was the guy who wrote “Law & Order: Twenty And Done“? Oh yeah, me.

In my defense, the show’s ratings on Friday began terribly. Here are the adults 18-49 ratings for the episodes this season (1.2, 1.2, 1.5, 1.6, 1.5, 1.4, 1.7, 1.6). It’s almost as if the fans couldn’t find the show during its first two weeks. A show increasing its ratings by 25+% over a short period like that rarely happens.

If Law & Order can hold a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating on Friday (maybe even a 1.6 rating) it’s back on NBC next season. With a 1.7 rating and assuming that NBC’s overall average falls after football to a 2.5, that would produce an Index of 0.68. CBS renews its Friday dramas with those relative ratings, I figure NBC will too.

Trauma is canceled now, no new episodes will be ordered. Mercy’s ratings make it effectively as canceled at the end of the season. It has a 22 episode order, but it has done no better than Trauma. No chance it comes back next season.

The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 15, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

-
Note that the Index values for all Fox shows will continue to be very depressed for some time because the World Series ratings have unusually boosted Fox’s overall 18-49 average (3.7 vs. ~3.o before baseball). That will slowly subside as Fox’s average evens out post-baseball. For the time being, the order of the shows is far more important than the Index values.

Dollhouse has been officially canceled. The only difference between it, ‘Til Death and Brothers is there has been no announcements about them. There may never be. They’ll continue to air episodes for some unknown period of time and then vanish.

With those 3 shows out of the way, Fringe is the only remaining scripted show in Fox’s lineup in some danger of cancellation. Could Fox renew it based on the fact it knew it was going to get crushed at 9pm Thursdays? Yes. But they also could decide they could do better in that time slot. It’s an interesting situation because I’m not sure how much new useful ratings information about Fringe’s situation we’ll get before the end of the year when decisions are made, short of an unlikely big change upwards or downwards in the ratings.

This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 15, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

-

The return of the appropriately aged (a year younger than yours truly) Heather Locklear gave Melrose Place a small ratings boost, but not nearly enough to give any hope to those who thought she might save the show. She only lifted the shows ratings to the level they held in early October. I thought the show was dead then, and ratings will likely to trail off from last night’s levels. That’s too little, too late.

Note that Smallville, Gossip Girl and One Tree Hill have yet to air a repeat, while all other CW scripted shows have. Right now that puts them temporarily on the up side of the see-saw and the others on the down side, but things should even out once every show has a similar number of repeats into their averages which will happen in the next month or so. At the moment 90210, Melrose Place, Supernatural and Vampire Diaries are a bit lower in the Index than they should be for that reason.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 15, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

-

With a Renew / Cancel Index of 0.92, Accidentally On Purpose would seem to be in pretty good shape for renewal for next season, but it has a sweet timeslot (following How I Met Your Mother) and I think it’s very likely that CBS expected it to do a lot better. I think Accidentally On Purpose could be canceled at the end of the season and become this year’s Worst Week. Last season, Worst Week had an even better timeslot (following Two And A Half Men @ 9:30), but it was canceled with an above average Index of 1.01.

In a big vote of no confidence, the episode order this season for Numb3rs was reduced to 16 episodes. It’s now in significant danger of not coming back.

Both Three Rivers and Cold Case will be canceled by the end of this season. Their timeslots are being switched, likely to try and make the best of the late Sunday ratings mess at CBS, but ignore the nonsense about CBS possibly ordering more episodes of Three Rivers. That’s typical of the ridiculous internet chatter that pops up during a show’s slide into oblivion.

The Good Wife seems to have stabilized at about a 2.8 adults 18-49 rating. On NBC, it would be a star, on CBS that’s borderline. Fans can anticipate sleepless nights until next season’s schedule is announced.

New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried ratings remain horrid, they were last season too. If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be renewed for yet another season.

This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 15, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

-

The last two episodes of FlashForward have each managed just a 2.6 rating for adults 18-49 (vs. ABC’s overall season average of a 3.1 rating), so that while FlashForward’s season average Index has it comfortably above the renewal line, its latest ratings now place its future very much in doubt.

the forgotten, got beat again by The Jay Leno Show last night. And while I have written this many times already, stick a fork in it, it’s done.

Eastwick and Hank have both been officially canceled, but since they may continue to air for an unknown number of episodes, I will not freeze their Indexes yet.

Fans of both Castle and The Middle can rest easy for now (although I don’t expect them to), their shows will air all the way through the 22 episodes ordered this season. However, their returns for 2010-2011 are very much in doubt. The relative success of new ABC shows this spring may determine their fates.

Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It’s ratings are dreadful. There is some entertainment press chatter that Ugly Betty may move to Wednesday’s at 10 in January to try and “save” the show. It may very well move, but short of ABC wanting to produce more episodes for syndication (a longshot) there is no “saving” it.

How could some shows that didn’t even air last week have their Indexes fall? ABC’s season average increased last week (raising the bar), so all shows that didn’t increase their averages saw their *relative* Indexes fall.

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 8, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

-
Note that the Index values for all Fox shows will continue to be very depressed for some time because the World Series ratings have unusually boosted Fox’s overall average. That will slowly subside as Fox’s average evens out post-baseball. For the time being, the order of the shows is far more important than the Index values.

I’m on record in the recent past as being positive on Fringe’s chances for renewal even with its relatively poor ratings performance on Thursdays. However, last week it managed only a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating. Was that entirely a post World Series scheduling/confusion situation? Why then did Bones dip just slightly to a 2.6? The eyes of Fringe fans should be on this week’s results. Another sub-2.0 rating and you might want to start a crazy fan “Save Our Show” campaign. Commenter Harold suggests skywriting.

Dollhouse, ‘Til Death and Brothers , all certain to be canceled, are off Fox’s schedule for the November sweeps period. Dollhouse will gets its 13 episodes aired, as it seems Brothers will too. Who knows (or cares) what happens with all the episodes of ‘Til Death.

10/11 Update: Dollhouse is officially canceled.

This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 8, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

-

For most broadcast shows, exile to Friday means your network thinks the show is past its time, and should peacefully fade away without damaging the ratings of shows on Sunday-Thursday. That’s likely the idea that the CW had when it put Smallville on Fridays this season. But defying conventional wisdom (and to many fans, the wishes of CW chief Dawn Ostroff), not only has Smallville refused to go quietly, it was tied for second best adults 18-49 rating on the CW last week. I know that the CW targets women 18-34, but be certain they sell advertising based on whatever attractive demo ratings they get. Those results cannot be ignored.

With Melrose Place the only show currently in the CW lineup certain to be canceled, fans await the return of Heather Locklear as potential salvation. Dream on.

I realize that with an Index of 0.82 Gossip Girl 90210 wouldn’t be “green” for any other network, but its women’s 18-34 ratings are above average for the CW (unfortunately we don’t get the same level of data for that demo for me to be able to easily use it). That, plus the fact that show’s the televised embodiment of everything Dawn Ostroff has staked her network on, guarantees it will be around as long as Dawn is.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story