Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through December 20, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

Program	Renew/ Cancel Index
Law & Order (F), (P)	0.52
Trauma (P)	0.65
Mercy (P)	0.68
Parks & Recreation (P)	0.73
Community	0.79
Heroes (P)	0.87
Law & Order: SVU (P)	0.90
30 Rock (P)	1.09
The Office (P)	1.48

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Last season Chuck averaged a 2.4 adults 18-49 rating including repeats. This season because of the general ratings carnage at NBC, if Chuck can average that same rating with no repeats I think it’s a lock for another season. Seems as easy as falling off a log, but is it?

NBC didn’t air a single new scripted episode last week, so the show’s on the bubble (Law & Order, Parks & Recreation, Community and Heroes) are still right where they were, and the shows that will certainly be canceled  Trauma and Mercy are still just as certainly canceled.

For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through December 20, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

Program	Renew/ Cancel Index
Til Death (S), (F)	0.22
Dollhouse (F), (P)	0.25
Brothers (F)	0.26
Fringe	0.61
Bones (P)	0.79
Lie To Me (P)	0.81
American Dad (P)	0.91
Glee (P)	0.96
The Cleveland Show (P)	1.10
The Simpsons (P)	1.18
Family Guy (P)	1.23
House	1.45

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Note that the Index values for all Fox shows will continue to be very depressed for some time because the World Series ratings have unusually boosted Fox’s overall 18-49 average (3.4 vs. ~3.0 before baseball). That will slowly subside as Fox’s average declines post-baseball. For the time being, the order of the shows is far more important than the Index values.

Fringe will air a new episode after the “return” episode of House on January 11. That sounds a lot to me like a last chance to prove its got the potential for better ratings somewhere else in the schedule besides Thursday at 9pm. Fans should keep their fingers crossed for a big ratings night.

Dollhouse, Brothers and ‘Til Death are all canceled, either in fact or in practice. Dollhouse fans will see all its episodes that were produced, that’s the best the other two can hope for as well.

For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.

This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through December 20, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Melrose Place ratings are so woeful, and its chances of being canceled at the end of the season so certain, that its last two new episodes (with 0.7 adults 18-49 ratings) failed to beat repeats of Supernatural, Smallville and (several) Vampire Diaries over the last 3 weeks.

Speaking of repeats, the CW’s practice of starting their season two weeks ahead of the rest of the official start of the broadcast season is coming home to roost. In the last four weeks they’ve aired a total of eight new episodes of scripted shows.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through December 20, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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There’s been some discussion on our site about the possibility that Medium may be canceled. It’s true that Medium has done poorly in the ratings this season compared to CBS Fridays last season, but so have its bretheen Numb3rs and Ghost Whisperer. But I significantly doubt that CBS would cancel two of its Friday shows in a single season, no matter how far they fall. So, like the joke about the two guys running from the bear, all Medium needs to do to survive for another season is outrun Numb3rs.

The Good Wife is doing a bit below average ratings for CBS. On NBC it would be a hit. On ABC or Fox it would be safe. On CBS, something’s gotta go, that puts it on the bubble for next season.

The New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried’s low ratings could be tolerated for yet another season if CBS sticks to its goal of a second “comedy block”, but don’t be surprised if Christine goes and Gary stays.

*Three Rivers is off CBS’ schedule and as close to canceled as you’re likely to get from CBS. Its Index is frozen at the point of the last week it aired, since it has no announced return date.

Accidentally On Purpose’s good timeslot following How I Met Your Mother makes its borderline Index look weaker than it would be were it elsewhere on the CBS schedule. Its prospects for next year are not bright.

In a big vote of no confidence, the episode order this season for Numb3rs was reduced to 16 episodes. It’s now in significant danger of not coming back.

For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.

This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through December 20, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

Program	Renew/ Cancel Index
Ugly Betty (S), (F), (P)	0.42
Better Off Ted	0.48
Hank	0.54*
Eastwick	0.60
the forgotten	0.61
Scrubs (P)	0.70
The Middle	0.72
Castle (P)	0.76
FlashForward (P)	0.95
Cougar Town (P)	1.00
Brothers & Sisters (S), (P)	1.09
Private Practice (P)	1.10
Modern Family	1.14
V	1.31
Desperate Housewives (P)	1.63
Grey’s Anatomy (P)	1.63

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Well, that was quick. With the announcement that ABC will double up Scrubs and Better Off Ted during January to burn off the available episodes of both shows their fates are sealed. Both will be canceled at the end of this season.

Flash Forward ended its fall run on a down note, scoring just a 2.1 rating for adults 18-49. As Gary Seven once said it’s ratings can be described as “Descending and accelerating“. Only a miraculous ratings turn around after its hiatus can save it now.The Middle has a fighting chance to increase its ratings now that it’s been freed of the Hank albatross lead in. Castle fans will not be able to sleep easily until mid-May, the show’s certain to be on the bubble the rest of the season.

Ugly Betty will be moving to Wednesday at 10pm beginning January 6. Short of a ratings miracle, there is no chance this does anything but change its final timeslot before cancellation at the end of this season.

the forgotten, has an order for additional episodes, but has continued to drift downward in the ratings and there is no chance it returns in fall 2010. Eastwick and Hank have both been officially canceled. *Hank’s Index is frozen at the point it was removed from ABC’s schedule.

For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for  shows either with either improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through December 13, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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NBC won the weekly adults 18-49 ratings last week. What? That was the power of Sunday Night Football vs. the competition airing at least  a few repeats during the week. But there’s only 2 more SNF games left, and after that, except for the two weeks of the Winter Olympics, the future ratings outlook for NBC is grim.

But that’s good news for NBC’s marginal shows like Parks & Recreation, Community and Heroes. NBC’s overall 18-49 ratings average will drop like a rock (it’s 2.8 now, I could see them averaging a 2.1 for most weeks in Jan-May.) That will make individual show’4s results look a lot better (and not just to the Index, but likely in the eyes of NBC as well). What’s bad for the network averages is good for the fans of those shows!

That’s not going to help Trauma and Mercy. They’re completely underwater and have no chance of being renewed for next season.

For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through December 13, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

Program	Renew/ Cancel Index
Til Death (S), (F)	0.22
Brothers (F)	0.26
Dollhouse (F), (P)	0.26
Fringe	0.64
Lie To Me (P)	0.82
Bones (P)	0.83
American Dad (P)	0.93
Glee (P)	0.96
The Cleveland Show (P)	1.13
The Simpsons (P)	1.18
Family Guy (P)	1.26
House	1.56

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Note that the Index values for all Fox shows will continue to be very depressed for some time because the World Series ratings have unusually boosted Fox’s overall 18-49 average (3.4 vs. ~3.0 before baseball). That will slowly subside as Fox’s average declines post-baseball. For the time being, the order of the shows is far more important than the Index values.

Fringe was aired for a week without Grey’s Anatomy or a new CSI, and ratings were up to a 2.5!

Last night a new Lie To Me was on without a new House as a lead in, and ratings were down to a 2.2!

And while fans are more likely to “take sides” than decision makers at Fox, can there be anything more fun in this week’s comments than “TVBTN Fox Fan Smackdown!“? Game on, baby!

Dollhouse, Brothers and ‘Til Death are all canceled, either in fact or in practice. Dollhouse fans will see all its episodes that were produced, that’s the best the other two can hope for as well.

For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.

This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through December 13, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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If you get the sense I’m running out of things to say about Melrose Place being the only show on the CW that’s likely to be canceled at the end of the season, and there’s still a lot more season to go, you’d be correct. The new mid-season show (now named Life Unexpected, previously Life UneXpected, feel the letter case changing buzz!)  cannot arrive soon enough.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story