Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 8, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Like ABC with Eastwick and the forgotten, NBC has two new ratings dogs in the pound and chose to extend Mercy’s life and kill Trauma early. Even though a few more Mercy episodes will be produced, the end result will be the same. Neither show is coming back next season.

Law & Order hit 2 season high ratings last Friday a 1.7 at 8pm and a 1.8 at 9pm. That’s very positive. Holding a 1.8 rating would likely ensure renewal. Even with a 1.7 it’s not out of the question. NBC’s current 18-49 average rating is a 2.7, but that will plunge once football ends. If NBC ends up averaging a 2.5 rating overall, a 1.7 rating on a Friday might save L&O. 1.7/2.5 = 0.68.

The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 8, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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In a big vote of no confidence, the episode order this season for Numb3rs was reduced to 16 episodes. It’s now in significant danger of not coming back. But last week the other CBS Friday dramas (Ghost Whisperer, Medium) only managed to edge Numb3rs adults 18-49 rating by a tenth (1.9 vs. 1.8). I think it’s very unlikely that CBS would wipe out its entire Friday lineup, but if Numb3rs is in danger, can the other 2 rest easy?

Neither Three Rivers nor Cold Case will be back next season. They will both be canceled by the end of the year, but while Cold Case will likely air a full 22 episode season, the most Three Rivers will get will be the 13 episodes already ordered.

The Good Wife ratings continue to drift downwards. Last week’s 2.7 rating is only 84% of the CBS average. If that continues, the show’s first season may be its last.

New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried ratings remain horrid, but what’s new? If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be fine for yet another season.

This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 8, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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the forgotten, received an order for 5 more episodes from ABC. Fans can be happy they’ll see a bit more of the show, but shouldn’t get their hopes up for more, it’s not coming back next season. It beat out Eastwick to escape being the first ABC show canceled, but that’s small consolation.

The “quiet success” that was Eastwick, was, as was easily predicted, quietly canceled. Hank’s still as certain to be canceled as ever.

11/10 Update: Hank is officially canceled.

Fans of both Castle and The Middle can rest easy for now (although I don’t expect them to), their shows will air all the way through the 22 episodes ordered this season. However, their returns for 2010-2011 are very much in doubt. The relative success of new ABC shows this spring may determine their fates.

Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It’s ratings are dreadful. There is some entertainment press chatter that Ugly Betty may move to Wednesday’s at 10 in January to try and “save” the show. It may very well move, but short of ABC wanting to produce more episodes for syndication (a longshot) there is no “saving” it.

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 1, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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There has been a surprising amount of ‘net chatter in the past week about a rumor claiming NBC told the writers of Heroes to prepare for the end of the show. I have no way of judging the truthfulness of that, and there may be some other (unknown to me) factor that could take the show off the air. However, looking at the ratings, while the show is way down from its earlier years, considering that its on NBC, Heroes is far from being dead. It’s average, and networks don’t typically cancel their average shows, particularly ones that air at 8pm.

I am a stubborn man, but I’d like to think not infinitely so. If the 3 CBS scripted shows can survive on Friday’s with their ratings, there’s a chance that Law & Order can too. This has nothing to do with the check from Dick Wolf that arrived yesterday.

The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates, not a drama like Mercy.

Trauma didn’t receive an order for its “back 9″ episodes, so it’ll last at most 13 episodes and then be canceled. It may be pulled from the schedule sooner than that.

Although SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it was limited run, I’m not including it.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 1, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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While a certain favorite commenter of ours may find it hard to believe, I had never heard of Joss Whedon before we started this site two years ago. He’s shown he’s got a sense of humor about himself, his shows and the entertainment business in general. That seems a healthy thing to have when your show (Dollhouse) is going to be canceled, particularly when he’s got the talent to keep at it.

Dollhouse, ‘Til Death and Brothers , all certain to be canceled, are off Fox’s schedule for the November sweeps period. Dollhouse will gets its 13 episodes aired, as it seems Brothers will too. The situation with all the episodes of ‘Til Death produced or ordered and not aired is so confusing, and not worth thinking about, I will let “Riff Rafferty” fill you in via comments if you care.

While I think the prospects are still positive for Fringe because it has done much better for Fox on Thursday’s at 9 then they’ve done for awhile, there is at least some question about its future, so I will keep it in orange.

Note that the Index values for all Fox shows will continue to be very depressed for next few weeks because the World Series ratings have unusually boosted Fox’s overall average. That will slowly subside as Fox’s average evens out post-baseball.

This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 1, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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With Melrose Place the only show CW certain to be canceled, just like last season with  Privileged I’m certain that there are entertainment bloggers out there that will raise the (false) hopes of fans (and their pageviews) with ridiculous “There’s Hope For Melrose Place!” stories.

I’m not sure if those stories are driven by the CW’s PR prowess or just attempts to draw pageviews, but who do you think will be first?

My guess rhymes with “Saucy-Fellow”.

Smallville fans wary of the motives of CW Chief Dawn Ostroff should be sleeping easily. With the relatively good ratings its getting on Friday (relatively better for its network than any other Friday scripted show on any network), she’s not going to be able to cancel it. Of course, if the producers or stars don’t want to continue that’s another story.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

Note: A few CW scripted shows were in repeats last week, which depresses their Indexes vs. those that were not. In the short run, it causes some tricky comparisons, in the long run it pretty much evens out.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 1, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Neither Three Rivers nor Cold Case will be back next season. They will both be canceled by the end of the year, but while Cold Case will likely air a full 22 episode season, the most Three Rivers will get will be the 13 episodes already ordered, and they’ll be lucky to get all of those. Three Rivers fans who’ll claim “but you said it would be off the air by now!”, can thank the accountants.

The Good Wife is still on the borderline. Its Index is depressed slightly because of last week’s repeat, see below.

New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried ratings remain horrid, but what’s new? If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be fine for yet another season.

Numb3rs ratings are again close enough to those of Medium and Ghost Whisperer to put its future in less doubt. Last season Numb3rs was renewed with a gap between its Index and that of Ghost Whisperer of 0.10. At that gap or less, I figure the show is safe, above that gap there’s a risk it gets canceled, but I acknowledge there is some risk that the rest of CBS schedule is doing well enough that Numb3rs could get canceled just to open a slot for a new show.

11/7 Update: The episode order this season  for Numb3rs was reduced to 16 episodes. It’s now in significant danger of not coming back.

Note: About half of the CBS scripted shows were in repeats last week, which depresses their Indexes vs. those that were not. In the short run, it causes some tricky comparisons, in the long run it pretty much evens out.

This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 1, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Fans of Hank, Eastwick and the forgotten, which are all certain to be canceled because of their woeful ratings, can be happy that the accountants are now in control of the broadcast networks, and instead of removing poor performers from the schedule early they’re letting them finish airing most or all of the 13 episodes of each that were ordered.

Fans of both Castle and The Middle can rest easy for now (although I don’t expect them to), their shows will air all the way through the 22 episodes ordered this season. However, their returns for 2010-2011 are very much in doubt. The relative success of new ABC shows this spring may determine their fates.

Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It’s ratings are dreadful. Could ABC keep it longer to produce even more episodes regardless of the ratings? It’s not 100% out of the question, but it’s a real longshot.

Against lots of CBS and a few CW repeats last week, some individual ABC shows had ratings upticks that gave the craziest of their fans some false hopes. Don’t be fooled, what really matters for renewal or cancellation is how they do vs. their ABC stablemates. It’s a bit like the old joke about two guys with a bear chasing them. You don’t need to out run the bear to survive, just the other guy.

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story