Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through February 21, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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It’s old news by now, but Chuck managed only a 2.2 adults 18-49 rating on February 8. Fans better hope that was just a one time hiccup and not a sign of real ratings sickness. We’ll soon see.

With Parks & Recreation renewed for a third season, I think it’s likely that NBC will renew Community as well. It’s got the more difficult 8pm timeslot, and its doing about 10% better in the ratings. There are issues with bringing it back and new half hour comedy timeslots, but I think those will be overcome.

Heroes has had its ratings ups and downs this season, but lately, they’ve been all down. Since the new year it’s had adults 18-49 ratings of 2.2, 2.1, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0. Even for NBC, a drama with those ratings is likely getting canceled.

As horrible as the situation is, I’ve got to believe NBC will try something new other than the ratings sinkholes Trauma and Mercy. Even starving post-Leno beggars have to be a little bit choosy.

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through February 21, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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I give up trying to figure out how to adjust the Fox overall season average ratings for sports and American Idol. Folks will just have to refrain from comparing Fox’s list to the other networks’ lists. The order of the shows is far more important than the Index values in Fox’s case, and the “magic” 0.90 Index for renewal will not be appropriate.

Human Target’s first 3 weeks in its “regular” Wednesday 8pm timeslot produced adults 18-49 ratings of 2.4, 2.5, and 2.1. Discounting the last one as being vs. an historic Winter Olympics night, its got to be considered to be one of Fox’s three “bubble” shows. Is it the weakest of the three? Note: the Index value above is for only Target’s Wednesday 8pm episodes.

All the schedule experiments have shown little practical ratings difference between Fringe and Lie To Me. Your guess is as good as mine what Fox does. At this point I don’t think I’d be terribly surprised by any combination of their renewal or cancellation (either one, both, neither).

Past Life was canceled before it even appeared in the Index!

Dollhouse is officially canceled. Brothers seems to be canceled in practice, but Fox is silent. ‘Til Death continues to bounce around the Fox schedule, currently Sundays at 7pm. I’d be stunned if it was back again, but I was stunned last spring too.

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through February 21, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Unlike ABC, which has only two scripted shows with reasonably unknown futures, CBS has 5 shows on its bubble: Numbers, Medium, Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, Accidentally on Purpose. In fact, Cold Case is the only current CBS show that I’m confident will be canceled. Some of those other 5 will be, but its hard to tell which at this point can squeeze into next season. And the success of Undercover Boss has likely reduced the number of survivors on that list by one from what it was likely to be just a few weeks ago.

The next interesting data points will come when:

• Accidentally On Purpose moves to Wednesday (March 31). That will give a relative read on both its and Gary Unmarried’s prospects. If it drops well below Gary’s average (2.2 rating for new episodes), it’s a goner. If it does lots better, goodbye Gary. Christine’s prospects are likely to be influenced as well.
• Miami Medical starts at 10pm on Fridays (April 2). Its results *might* provide some additional clarity on the prospects for Numb3rs and Medium.

For all the hyperventilating Medium fans, I still doubt CBS will cancel two of its Friday shows in one season, but Tassler herself seemed to keep that potential open with her recent TCA remarks, so there is at least some danger to the show.

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through February 21, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010, Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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I continue to like Castle’s renewal chances, its relative ratings improved enough from the beginning of the year to put it in a good position to return for next season.

There are just two shows on ABC’s “bubble” at this point.

FlashForward ratings need to bounce back from its fall lows (2.1 adults 18-49 rating) when it returns in March or it will be canceled.

V’s future entirely rests on how its ratings do on its return in March. Because its fall ratings are effectively meaningless now, I’ve colored the show orange in the table to indicate that its future is uncertain, based only on its spring ratings.

The Deep End will certainly be canceled.

Who is Steve McPherson kidding about Scrubs and Better Off Ted? There is a very tiny possibility that Scrubs comes back just to generate more episodes for syndication. There is no such possibility for Ted.

Ugly Betty has been officially canceled. Hank and Eastwick are already canceled, and the forgotten’s cancellation is a certainty. Lost is in its final season.

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through February 21, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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News that Supernatural, Gossip Girl, 90210 and Vampire Diaries all received early renewals (not surprisingly) leaves only Smallville, One Tree Hill and Life Unexpected among the only real unknowns on the current CW schedule, since Melrose Place will certainly be canceled.

Life Unexpected’s adults 18-49 ratings have drifted below the range where I’d be confident of its renewal, but I’m still leaning that way. Robert noted that the show has done relatively well in repeat airings on Wednesday (which the Index doesn’t take into account). That could lead to a ratings boost when it shifts to one airing per week. Note that Life Unexpected’s ratings Index includes only new episodes, while the rest of the CW show Indexes contain many repeat airings, so it’s difficult to make an apples to apples comparisons without looking at individual episode numbers.

One Tree Hill is on more solid ratings ground. If it comes down to OTH vs. LUX (although I’m not saying that will be the case), I’d be pretty sure OTH gets the renewal.

Smallville’s return will be determined by the wishes of the producers and cast. It certainly has the ratings.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

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Renew / Cancel Posts Are Taking A Break, Look For the Next NBC Renew / Cancel Post On February 23.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 31, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Now that Parks & Recreation has been renewed for a third season, I don’t see how NBC can not renew Community as well. It’s got the more difficult 8pm timeslot, and its doing about 10% better in the ratings.

Heroes has had its ratings ups and downs this season, but lately, they’ve been all down. Since the new year it’s had adults 18-49 ratings of 2.2, 2.1, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0 (prelim). Even for NBC a drama with those ratings is getting canceled.

Chuck ratings continue to skate just on the good side of renewal for the show. Last night’s 2.4 rating should be a bit troubling to fans, because I’m a lot less hopeful at a consistent 2.4 than I am at a consistent 2.5.

As horrible as the situation is, I’ve got to believe NBC will try something new other than the ratings sinkholes Trauma and Mercy. Even starving post-Leno beggars have to be a little bit choosy.

Read the full story

Renew / Cancel Posts Are Taking A Break, Look For the Next Fox Renew / Cancel Post On February 23.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 31, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

-

I give up trying to figure out how to adjust the Fox overall season average ratings for sports and American Idol. Folks will just have to refrain from comparing Fox’s list to the other networks’ lists. The order of the shows is far more important than the Index values in Fox’s case, and the “magic” 0.90 Index for renewal will not be appropriate.

Against repeat or special competition on broadcast networks, Fringe has had its best three ratings weeks this season since its premiere (2.6, 2.6, 3.0 adults 18-49 ratings). If only Fox moved it somewhere better, fans lament! But where? Sunday’s out. Monday at 9 would mean either getting rid of Lie to Me or 24. Friday’s a death zone. Putting it in the left over spot with American Idol on Tuesday or Wednesday likely means it could only be a spring show, but what then does Fox move into Thursday at 9? Tricky, very tricky.

All the schedule experiments with the two shows continue to show little practical ratings difference between Fringe and Lie To Me. Your guess is as good as mine what Fox does. At this point I don’t think I’d be terribly surprised by any combination of their renewal or cancellation (either one, both, neither).

Human Target fans should watch the ratings beginning tomorrow night (2/3) when the show starts its run in its “normal” timeslot. Those results will determine the future of the show. The past ratings as it jumped all over the schedule will mean little.

Dollhouse is officially canceled. Brothers seems to be canceled in practice, but Fox is silent. ‘Til Death continues to bounce around the Fox schedule, currently Sundays at 7pm. I’d be stunned if it was back again, but I was stunned last spring too.

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Renew / Cancel Posts Are Taking A Break, Look For the Next CW Renew / Cancel Post On February 23.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 31, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Life Unexpected’s adults 18-49 ratings for its first three episodes (1.1, 1.1, 1.0) put it solidly in the middle range of CW shows and if it can hold there it looks good for renewal. Note that Life Unexpected’s ratings average includes only new episodes, while the rest of the CW show averages contain many repeat airings.

And, if to do no more than let folks know who haven’t been paying attention, Melrose Place will certainly be canceled at the end of the season.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story