Short term (4 week) ratings trends indicate the renewal prospects for Castle, The Good Wife, Heroes, Parks & Recreation and Law & Order have improved.

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 15, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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The last two episodes of FlashForward have each managed just a 2.6 rating for adults 18-49 (vs. ABC’s overall season average of a 3.1 rating), so that while FlashForward’s season average Index has it comfortably above the renewal line, its latest ratings now place its future very much in doubt.

the forgotten, got beat again by The Jay Leno Show last night. And while I have written this many times already, stick a fork in it, it’s done.

Eastwick and Hank have both been officially canceled, but since they may continue to air for an unknown number of episodes, I will not freeze their Indexes yet.

Fans of both Castle and The Middle can rest easy for now (although I don’t expect them to), their shows will air all the way through the 22 episodes ordered this season. However, their returns for 2010-2011 are very much in doubt. The relative success of new ABC shows this spring may determine their fates.

Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It’s ratings are dreadful. There is some entertainment press chatter that Ugly Betty may move to Wednesday’s at 10 in January to try and “save” the show. It may very well move, but short of ABC wanting to produce more episodes for syndication (a longshot) there is no “saving” it.

How could some shows that didn’t even air last week have their Indexes fall? ABC’s season average increased last week (raising the bar), so all shows that didn’t increase their averages saw their *relative* Indexes fall.

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 8, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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the forgotten, received an order for 5 more episodes from ABC. Fans can be happy they’ll see a bit more of the show, but shouldn’t get their hopes up for more, it’s not coming back next season. It beat out Eastwick to escape being the first ABC show canceled, but that’s small consolation.

The “quiet success” that was Eastwick, was, as was easily predicted, quietly canceled. Hank’s still as certain to be canceled as ever.

11/10 Update: Hank is officially canceled.

Fans of both Castle and The Middle can rest easy for now (although I don’t expect them to), their shows will air all the way through the 22 episodes ordered this season. However, their returns for 2010-2011 are very much in doubt. The relative success of new ABC shows this spring may determine their fates.

Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It’s ratings are dreadful. There is some entertainment press chatter that Ugly Betty may move to Wednesday’s at 10 in January to try and “save” the show. It may very well move, but short of ABC wanting to produce more episodes for syndication (a longshot) there is no “saving” it.

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 1, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Fans of Hank, Eastwick and the forgotten, which are all certain to be canceled because of their woeful ratings, can be happy that the accountants are now in control of the broadcast networks, and instead of removing poor performers from the schedule early they’re letting them finish airing most or all of the 13 episodes of each that were ordered.

Fans of both Castle and The Middle can rest easy for now (although I don’t expect them to), their shows will air all the way through the 22 episodes ordered this season. However, their returns for 2010-2011 are very much in doubt. The relative success of new ABC shows this spring may determine their fates.

Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It’s ratings are dreadful. Could ABC keep it longer to produce even more episodes regardless of the ratings? It’s not 100% out of the question, but it’s a real longshot.

Against lots of CBS and a few CW repeats last week, some individual ABC shows had ratings upticks that gave the craziest of their fans some false hopes. Don’t be fooled, what really matters for renewal or cancellation is how they do vs. their ABC stablemates. It’s a bit like the old joke about two guys with a bear chasing them. You don’t need to out run the bear to survive, just the other guy.

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 25, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Castle’s received a back 9 order to complete the 2009-2010 season. That was never really in doubt for me, the ratings weren’t terrible and the Index predicts what will happen by the end of the season. However, Castle fans prone to fingernail biting might want to invest in sturdy gloves now. I can pretty much guarantee that the future of the show will not be known until the very last minute in May. It will likely attract the most frenzy of the ABC bubble shows because of a combination of its ratings and its fans.

ABC says Eastwick is a quiet success. I guess they’ll be quiet when they cancel the show, because it has zero chance of getting another season. But it does have a crazy fan “Save our Show” campaign!

Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It’s ratings are dreadful. Could ABC keep it longer to produce even more episodes regardless of the ratings? It’s not 100% out of the question, but it’s a real longshot.

While the forgotten’s ratings have stabilized, they’ve stabilized in the “cancel me” zone and Hank is certain to be canceled as well.

The Middle has received an order for a full season from ABC, but I wouldn’t make plans to watch it next season. Its Index will continue to fall even if its ratings stabilize where they are now. The only reason it’s not red now is that I’ve learned to give half hour comedies a bit more slack until later in the season.

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 18, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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ABC says Eastwick is a quiet success. Perhaps they’ll be quiet when they cancel the show, because it has zero chance of getting another season. But it does have a crazy fan “Save our Show” campaign!

Ugly Betty is back, and it got terrible ratings for its premiere. Not surprising and unlikely ABC expected much more. It only returned to get enough episodes for syndication which it will have by the end of this season. Could ABC keep it longer to produce even more episodes regardless of the ratings? It’s not 100% out of the question, but it’s a real longshot.

While the forgotten’s ratings have stabilized, they’ve stabilized in the “do not renew” zone and Hank is as dead as it ever was. And while I still think Castle is unlikely to get another season, it’s once again looks to be the best of a bad lot of 10pm weekday dramas for ABC. That gives it a small ray of hope.

Update: Castle’s received a back 9 order to complete the 2009-2010 season. The Index predicts only what will happen for *next* season (as stated rather clearly in the bold text at the top, but perhaps it’s better to not read it and be “surprised”)

The Middle has received an order for a full season from ABC, but I wouldn’t make plans to watch it next season. Its Index will continue to fall even if its ratings stabilize where they are now. The only reason it’s not red now is that I’ve learned to give half hour comedies a bit more slack until later in the season.

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 11, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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While I don’t think it’s much for Castle fans to cheer about, the forgotten is definitely more likely to be canceled than their favorite show. Not only has its Index fallen below Castle’s, but its ratings are still trending down and even if they stabilize now its Index will continue falling as its average gets pulled down. Any bets on whether Christian Slater will be on a CBS show next season after My Own Worst Enemy on NBC and now the forgotten?

And while Eastwick’s Index is still above Castle’s, its ratings are trending down sharply, and I’d put its chances of being canceled at nearly as high as the forgotten’s.

Among ABC’s comedies, Hank is looking even shakier than it was last week, it’s certain to be canceled before the end of the season. And while The Middle has received an order for a full season from ABC, I’m not sure I’d make any plans to watch it next season just yet.

In response to some comments about color blindness and problems with the colors in the list, the shows in red (the greatest danger) are now also bolded. Does that help?

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 4, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Poor Kelsey Grammer, ever since he stopped being Frasier Crane he can’t catch a break. His latest show, Hank, premiered as the most likely ABC show to be canceled prior to the end of the 2009-2010 season. Not to worry, we’ll always have Cheers!

Castle looks a little better this week, but that’s primarily because other ABC shows did worse, it’s still in significant danger of being canceled by the end of the season. the forgotten’s second airing ratings fell sharply and now it’s likely in even more danger than Castle of being canceled. And a lot can happen between now and May, but fans of Eastwick and The Middle might not want to make any multi-year viewing plans either. Brothers & Sisters improvement in its second airing has boosted it into the safe zone.

In response to some comments about color blindness and problems with the colors in the list, the shows in red (the greatest danger) are now also bolded. Does that help?

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story